…the Republican should protest Pennsylvania where the race was closer!
Pennsylvania:
Bush 2,738,850 48.59
Kerry 2,864,124 50.81
Ohio:
Bush 2,777,645 – 51 percent
Kerry 2,632,547 – 48 percent
Pathetic, huh? Time for the Democratic Party to grow up or implode.
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Or Michigan, also with a smaller margin.
The media is beginning the effort to delegitimize this election.
fuck the MSM. I believe as long as kerry and the dems won’t concede, the MSM won’t call the victory for bush either.
and fuck CNN.
Not just closer, but involving serious fraud.
did we expect anything else from Kerry and McAullife and their media wing? The result is inescapable however. Bush wins.
I doubt by the comments from dems on C-Span that they’re capable of growing up, but I’ll be happy to watch them implode. Hell, I’ll do a documentary on it, so in the future when the democratic party finds itself again on the verge of imploding, they’ll have a place to go that will provide them with what to expect and how they were able to find themselves in such a mess to begin with.
Watch the numbers in Ohio – Roger’s figures show 145k lead – official Ohio numbers show 133k Bush lead. 99.90% of the precincts reporting.
So are the War Hero and Breck Girl going to challenge the voting mechanism in Ohio, or make some ginned up allegations that minorities were racially excluded in Cuyahoga County [when the vote in that county went 2 out of 3 for Kerry], or some other far fetched argument ? Bring in Lawrence Tribe and David Boies !! I bet these professional vote experts have been working through out the night.
Thanks to the Ohio GOP and the black Ohio Secretary of State [who was so pillored in the MSM] for getting the Federal courts to allow election monitors in the voting booth which prevented those uncounted boxes of ballots from surfacing here and there and all over the place. “O, gee look what we found here !!”
My guess is that Fox decided that they would not be the first network to declare Bush the winner and thus appear biased toward him. So there they wait with the rest of him. Why not declare Bush the winner and thus appear sane?
I went to sleep about 10:30 or 11:00 last night, EST, having gotten very discouraged by the high voter turnout after I heard on Fox that new voters were going 2 to 1 for Kerry, and after I read on the KerrySpot that something like 57% of all voters were women (eek!)
Then I had nightmares all night that Kerry had won–in one dream my husband and I were having a fight about it!
Thank God this is over.
Someone a few weeks ago said we were all going to need a period of decompression after the election, and that’s me. It’s gonna take me at least 5, 10 minutes here to get happy.
On the KerrySpot, quoting a source in the Bush campaign:
The American people came through for us.
I’m ordering Ray Fair’s book today.
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things
Goof,
How many days to go now?
The only thing Kerry has to pin his hopes on, is the myth that there are enough provisional ballots out there that would erase the 130K Bush margin.
Of course, I said provisional…there are going to be a majority of these that will be invalid. These invalids will be the next story in the MSM, which refuses to accept Bush’s victory.
Roger and the gang:
You guys are “awesome” as my daughters say.
It is people like you who made the difference in this thing.
I know how much intellectual integrity and courage it took to keep the faith.
Thanks for this oasis on the net.
Jim Rhoads
vnjagvet
Knock me over with a feather… CNN World called the killer of Theo Van Gogh an Islamic Fundamentalist.
The MSM called the enemy by their name. I think I better go out and check to see if the sun is rising in the east or the west this morning.
Does Katie Couric’ face carry the emotions of the Democratic Party ? Drawn, weathered, devoid of that rosy hue this morning.
The MSM is talking about the War Hero’s Promethian uphill battle on the Ohio provisional ballots.
Pressure, pressure, as the War Hero rails at his butler, “Damn it, Jeeves, I thought they were my friends, you mean I have to go out there and give a concession speech, get me the chutney marmalade and fast. . . chop, chop !!!”
Katie Couric’s looked like a shriveled brown mummy for quite some time.
The Democratic Party has already imploded. Name one issue on which they seem to have a reality-based coherent agenda. As a national party, the only thing they can say for sure is they aren’t Republicans.
What’s lumbering on is machine without a heart. The question is how long can it go on like this.
I am bushed…
I had to say that.
I went to bed at 2 am, got up at 8 am and John Kerry is still being an asshole.
Why change now?
If the Democrats drag this country through days or weeks of unnecessary turmoil with everything going on in Iraq nad elsewhere they will seal their own fate.
Give them a choice: your party, your country…it is plain which they will chose.
Here is the short answer to why Kerry should concede in the next day or so: There is no upside to a Kerry Presidency. He will have no ability to implement his domestic agenda and will be fully responsible for anything bad that happens in the GWOT. He is a one term President. The Godfather [aka William Jefferson Clinton] will shortly be talking to Kerry explaining all this to him.
Here is the long answer:
(1)This not a replay of 2000. Gore could make the moral case to press on because he did win aplurality [500,000 votes] over Bush and Florida was in the round off error. Bush has an absolute majority with a 2-3 point lead over Kerry. The courts definitely want to stay out of this one. Kerry could possibly win in Ohio but itís an iffy proposition.
(2) The Kerry and DNC are caught up in the “count all the votes rhetoric of 2000. However, they just haven’t read the Constitution. This surprises me because they are all a bunch of lawyers.
Article 2 section 1 states:
“Section 1. The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his office during the term of four years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same term, be elected, as follows:
“…Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or person holding an office of trust or profit under the United States, shall be appointed an elector…”
If the Ohio vote is tied up in the Courts when the legal date for selecting electors arrives then the Ohio legislature will have to chose the states electors. The Ohio legislature is controlled by the Republicans. Bush wins Ohio. Furthermore, if Bush wins one more state he is over 260. [New Mexico and Iowa are almost certainly in the Bush column] At that point the Republican legislature can proceed in magnanimity and split Ohio 10/10. Bush wins Presidency
If the legislature decides to not decide then we proceed as follows:
“The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.”
The Republicans control more then 25 state delegations. Bush wins the Presidency.
At this point there is no realistic scenario for a Kerry victory. He can only damage the Democratic Party if he does not make a graceful exit.
So here is the bottom line. Kerry has a low probability of making it to the White House and if he does he is in a no win position. He will not be a player in the domestic arena and he will be responsible for high-risk national security issues where he is most likely to fail. I think James Carville’s advice would be run as far away from this as possible Mr. Kerry.
[Election commentary to be continued I have a meeting...Message for Samuel: I live in the Westover area and go to Church at St Paul's Lutheran in West Falls Church]
This isn’t Florida 2000 in any respect. Bush’s lead in the popular vote is 10 times that of Gore in 2000. Moreover, Bush received more votes for president last night than any man in history. Unlike Florida in 2000, the Dems have no realistic prospect of winning Ohio.
As a result of all of the above, Kerry no longer has any legitimate claim to the White House. The people have spoken, and as is often the case with stubborn fanatics in the Democratic inner circle, they don’t like what the people said, and are desperately trying to find a way to screw them.
If this goes on for 10 more days (and it might), all the fears and concerns raised during the campaign in relation to Kerry’s character will be confirmed.
Thank God he lost.
jerry:
I told you to hang in there.
I live in flyover country and I kinda sorta knew the folks would get out an vote for Bush and against Kerry. I know the heartland and it is not Kerry country.
I agree with your commentary. The system was set up for reps to vote for president and not a popular vote win at all. So if push comes to shove it goes back to the legislators and the Republicans have an advantage there, one the voters gave them.
But the truth is the vote is close in several states, like Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvannia and if Bush conceded these states it is not really very smart for Kerry to fight Ohio. What goes around comes around.
Jerry,
Not to mention that if Kerry gets into office his approval rating will be in the toilet. Midterms, the next presidential election, the Dems are going to die. I noticed that this election 10% Dems voted Bush, 7% Pubs voted Kerry. If it gets messy, those Dems aint going back and a bunch of others will join them. Most of the Pubbies will come back into the fold. Adios Democratic party.
Boy, am I glad you guys are still here!
I’m way too tired to be playing this game, but if all y’all will allow me a Hollywood Analogy, the President’s victory in this election is like taking the fishing boat from The Perfect Storm, replacing George Clooney with George Bush as the captain, and changing the ending to have the boat come back out of the storm not only in one piece, but with a full load of fish and the decks awash with sailors rescued from other boats.
The market manipulating billionaires, the MSM, the Entertainment industry, the Trial Lawyers, the International Coalition of Kleptocrats, every socialist and Islamomurderer on the planet, Wailing and Barking Moonbats of every imaginable disorder, Wingnuts, and the billionaire Loon challenger himself all conspired, all pulled every stunt they could conjure up, to sink the President. And yet he came back to port smiling and waving with all hands aboard.
God Bless America. I won’t ask God (being an atheist and all) to curse and otherwise screw that list of scum I mentioned above, but that’s what I personally wish for them.
Hey guys, this is Kerry we’re talking about here. He’ll concede… we just have to give him time to conduct some polls, change his mind five or six times, and find out if he still has an allowance from Thereza before he does the deed.
Excellent point, Ambi.
What a beautiful day it is in Utah. We made it up to the airport in plenty of time. KCRL Utah (“Radio Free Utah”) was running yesterday’s Pacifica stories.
Those folks…live in a different world than me.
Dawn should bring us to the last scene in this story; it should.
Kerry should concede for all the reasons mentioned above – and most of all for the good of the nation. There is a ton of healing that needs to happen – MUST happen – here so we can get on with being the last best hope for freedom on this tiny planet.
Roger, it was a privilege to participate in your forum last night. Shucks, it always is.
What a beautiful day it is in Utah. We made it up to the airport in plenty of time. KCRL Utah (“Radio Free Utah”) was running yesterday’s Pacifica stories.
Those folks…live in a different world than me.
Dawn should bring us to the last scene in this story; it should.
Kerry should concede for all the reasons mentioned above – and most of all for the good of the nation. There is a ton of healing that needs to happen – MUST happen – here so we can get on with being the last best hope for freedom on this tiny planet.
Roger, it was a privilege to participate in your forum last night. Shucks, it always is.
Kerry’s behavior confirms what the Swift Boat Vets (remember them?) claimed: that he is an unfit CINC because he will always put put his own well-being and political advancement above every other consideration, including the interests of his own country.
The Democrat Party’s behavior confirms what we have all been saying for months now: there is no depth to which they will not gladly sink.
Juan “Climb Every Mountain, Count Every Vote” Williams is a bufoon, by the way.
***
Let me just add, quite seriously and even reverentially, that Dennis the Peasant and Rick Ballard are frickin’ geniuses of the highest order. And that is a compliment I do not often bestow.
Jamie Irons
BTW, I thoroughly enjoyed when Bush sent his Chief of Staff out to fire a shot across the bow of the Good Ship LooneyPony. Surrender or be sunk!
A couple of notes on Ohio-
Sans provisional ballots, Bush is up 51.01% to 48.52% with a net of 136,483 votes.
[Why the MSM is calling Ohio 'too close to call' at 51.0/48.5 while announcing that Bush has an clear majority in the USA with 51/48 is a bit of a mystery to me.]
First, 136,000+ votes renders the provisional ballot results relatively meaningless. Kerry would have to substantially outperform his averages in the most heavily Democratic counties in the state to get even close to making up the net. Kerry needed to be at a net of roughly 50,000 to have a realistic chance. He isn’t there, so that’s the end of that.
Second, Ohio’s Secretary of State, Kenneth Blackwell, is no Katherine Harris. He is highly respected professional politician, a conservative Republican African-American, and tall, handsome and extremely articulate. He has also proven himself to extremely competent as an Administrator. Kerry’s going to have his hands full in a P.R. war with Kenneth Blackwell.
Third, the Ohio Supreme Court is solidly Republican. This ain’t Florida’s court system. Sure, we have a couple of Justices who could be a brick shy of a load, but Kerry cannot realistically expect any sort of sympathetic hearing within the State.
Fourth, for all the huffing and puffing, there isn’t any evidence of any sort of Florida-style breakdown in the system. No butterfly ballot confusing the Matlock crowd, no early call by the networks, just some isolated instances of long waits that are clearly explainable by the huge turnout.
I just really don’t understand what Kerry is thinking. There is no opening here for Kerry to try to exploit.
Right about PA. Darn, I thought PA was going to wind up in in W’s column. But Kerry took Philly by about 400k votes (about 75% of votes cast). That’s a lot for the rest of the state to overcome. So are we going to investigate? If so, start in Philly.
j
I was just reading on Instapundit that Wisconsin is actually closer than Ohio. 49.8 for Kerry and 49.3 for Bush with 99.3% of the precincts in.
Maybe Bush should refuse to accept defeat in Wisconsin and PA. See how the Kerry folks like them apples.
But I don’t see him doing anything that stupid. Kerry on the other hand…….
And why won’t the Networks call this? Fox still has Bush 269 and Kerry 244. I think we can safely say Bush won NM, IA and NV.
Making an old lady out of me.
The country deserves better.
Interesting how CNN and cBS along with some others refused to give Ohio to Bush…I was watching Fox, who called Ohio for Bush already, when they read the Kerry camp letter that Kerry was going to wait for the provisional ballots.
His character shows up once again in this selfish stance….and I hear, as of this morning, he has yet to address his supporters. As wacky as I think Kerry supporters are, I think they deserve to be addressed with some sort of speech.
I’m thrilled that Bush won the popular vote by a big margin. But will people now stop calling him “Mr.” Bush – the “selected” president? Doubt it.
I love that there was a record turn out and it worked in Bush’s favor. I love that the exit polls teased the Kerry camp. I remember reading people online say that they told the pollsters they voted for Kerry, when they actually voted for Bush. I guess a lot of people did that.
I was sick in the afternoon, but I guess it was worth it to see the results later on.
I can’t wait to hear Moore, France, Hollywood, San Francisco, Berkeley….rant!!! Well, fortunately, with the availability of the internet I’ve been able to meet other Bush supporters, so I know I’m not alone here in California.
(I posted this on the previous thread)
Honestly, on a morning when Mara Liasson says the GOP “will hold control of Congress for two more years [or decades, honey!]“–rather than make unprecedented gains in the House and Senate–I think these people really do live in a parallel universe.
Jay Cost is nailing it:
Not quite as succinct as Terrye, but he gets his points across rather well.
The posts above make excellent points about the impossibility of a Kerry win in Ohio and the U.S. and I am sure they are not lost on sensible heads in the DNC. Who are those sensible heads? Why the ones who want a strong challenge in 2008. Drawing this process out is lose/lose for the DNC. If the dems had won a majority of the popular vote again (as I am sure they were betting on) the vote challenge strategy might have worked. They either win the vote in court or at worst they bloody Bush’s legitimacy once again. But it didn’t work. So now cooler heads (read Clinton – if he is nothing else he is a damn smart politician and so is Hillary) have to stop this from turning into a collective suicide. I can’t imagine the Clintons will allow their party to be shattered to the point that Hillary’s chances of becoming President in 2008 are dashed as well.
P.S. Both my wife and I are registered DEMs. We are changing our party status to Republican.
I can understand CNN,ABC,CBS and NBC refusing to call the election…it would be tantamount to admitting personal defeat. What I do not understand is what Fox is doing…because what the are doing is taking a huge credibility hit. We watch Fox because it doesn’t act the way the rest of the networks do.
John Kerry will concede, and will do so today. There are a substantial number of people within the Democratic Party that have NO INTEREST betting all their chips on what is clearly a losing hand. I personally don’t see the overnight delay as being a huge issue. Yes, it would have been nice if he had done it last night, but in many respects it is understandable.
Kerry isn’t the big loser here. The big loser is MSM…beyond an absolutely disgraceful performance throughout the campaign, we are now saddled with a whole spectrum of media institutions that will not announce the obvious due to bias or cowardice. At this point, Fox is the biggest loser of all by refusing to declare for Bush, although CBS is close behind.
Catherine,
The Fair model is completely blown. The popular vote came in way outside the MOE. The Newsweek jerk’s claim that the propaganda arm of the DNC was worth 15 points turns out to be an error but the agitprop was worth 5%.
Jamie,
Thanks for the kind words. As a close follower of Yogi Berra I have to say that “you can observe a lot of things by looking around”.
Folks,
Concerning provisionals – the vast majority will be rejected pursuant to Ohio election law. They are “provisional” because they are as phony as three dollar bills. Proper political strategy now is for W to declare victory (subtext “Screw you, loser Johns”) then have Ohio apply the correct procedure and determine status of each and every provisional vote. Doing a complete review of the provisionals (which will reject the legitimacy of about 90% of them) will kill the “not every vote was counted” baby meme in the crib.
Finally,
Help the MSM – cancel your subscription to any newspaper participating in the DNC propaganda project and block every one of the network channels which also participate. Every nickle you spend on a subsription and every second you spend watching prolongs the mortal agony of an aging whore so far gone in terminal disease that all of her rational faculties have been lost.
BTW – I’ll believe Roger really means what he says when he cancels the Times.
Checking the rooms of the inmates, I found on NBC, Katie Couric asking Dede Myers about 2008 and Hillary being the front runner.
” Well, of course, she is, but it is too soon to tell” babbled Dede.
I am so reassured; I think I’ll have Dr. Lauer take Katie off her double dose of prozac.
I was a presiding judge in an Ohio precinct yesterday. We had six provisional situations. Everything was handled on the square. We had two Dems and two Repubs working as was the case everywhere.
I can’t believe the way CNN especially, and all of them in general, are so far off from a reality of which I have personal knowledge. The idea that there’s some army of tens of thousands of disenfranchised individuals that stood in the rain for hours only to be denied by vote-suppressing lawyer thugs for the Republicans is just nuts.
It rained here all day. The legions of newly-registered young voters stayed home. The Republicans got out their vote better, simple as that.
The electoral system in Ohio is healthy and sound, I’m proud to say. To think there there are huge blocks of Kerry votes unaccounted for is scarily detached from sanity, and shows how hard it will be for post-election reconciliation. I think the climate will get worse first, not better.
Another thing: the MSM can’t do basic math.
If Bush has a 131,000-vote margin, and provisional ballots total 135,000, then Kerry cannot win. Even if provisional ballots are double that–270,000–he cannot win. Here’s why:
Say all the ballots are from Cuyahoga or other heavily Kerry counties, where he has been winning at a 66%/33% margin.
If he wins at the same rate in the provisionals (dubious to begin with), he does not net .66 x 270,000 = 178,000 votes. He nets (.66-.33) * 270,000 = 89,100 votes.
Didn’t any of these morons get through the sixth grade?
Hermie
These invalids will be the next story in the MSM, which refuses to accept Bush’s victory
Actually, the NYTIMES is not only accepting Bush’s victory, but calling it a mandate:
November 3, 2004
President Seems Poised to Claim a New Mandate
By TODD S. PURDUM
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/03/politics/campaign/03assess.html?ei=5094&en=ef7a4aead2f32959&hp=&ex=1099544400&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&position=
Unfortunately, they quote Bob Dallek at the end of the piece, a historian (nice guy, terrific historian, we know him) who published an article in USAToday arguing that history shows us Kerry will win.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/2004-10-25-history-bushfate_x.htm
I don’t know why you would go back to an expert who got things so wrong when there are experts out there–Democratic Party experts, if that’s what you’re looking for–who got things right.
Terrye
Why change now?
OK, that’s a snort-coffee-out-your-nostrils line. (Do we already have a web acronym for that?)
I just heard some Talking Head explaining that the exit polls were so horribly wrong because (paraphrasing) they were using “old models to try to predict a new situation”. Maybe its just me, but doesn’t that sum up the entire problem with the Left in general and the Democratic Party in particular? They are living with tired, used up, old models to to try and cobble solutions to problems they don’t understand. Reactionaries! Trying to look at the world around them and fit what they see into yesteryear’s explanations.
No, Fresh Air, they can’t do math. And don’t even get me started on the MSM’s inability to deal with elementary statistics…
But the key question remains:
When Alec Baldwin moves to Europe, will he take Sean Penn with him?
DtP -
Did you follow NRO’s Corner at all yesterday, especially between lunch and dinner time?
Their panicked handflapping meltdown in response to the blast of ludicrous exit polls made the Titanic lifeboat riot scenes look like HenryV’s “Band of Brothers” speech.
Why is it that conservatives refuse to sieze initiative when it drops in their laps? Is it reflexive? It seems that the NR crew, even though they are enmeshed in media and fully aware of all the old conventional wisdoms and tricks that roll around every election are more than likely to spectacularly succumb to jitters at the point of decision. Every freakin’ time, too, it seems.
I didn’t watch ANY T.V. Yes, yes, I missed Couric, Brokaw, and Rather passing cinderblocks – but did I miss any other examples of conservative pundit panic early in the day?
Roger’s forum was a model of glacial calm by comparison.
Percy,
John Henry, owner of the Boston Redsox, is reported to have chartered planes on standby to haul teams of Dem lawyers to OH. Since that will be an unnecessary waste of money, perhaps he could send them to round up all the Celebs and Luminaries who promised to leave the country (yet again!) if GWB won. Babs could sing lullabyes to them all as they fly off to Paris.
Tmj,
Allowing the use of the inaccurate labels “conservative” and “liberal”, I believe we are seeing two sides of the same coin here. Just as “liberals” cannot believe that their days in power are over and have, therefore, become blind reactionaries, “conservatives” cannot fully recognize that their days in power loom before them and, therefore, are easily spooked.
Let me just add, quite seriously and even reverentially, that Dennis the Peasant and Rick Ballard are frickin’ geniuses of the highest order. And that is a compliment I do not often bestow.
Ditto!
Rick,
I am curious, what is the usual number of provisional ballots are in Ohio? I know that there was a record turnout, but I would like to get some feel for the numbers. Do you happen to know?
Battlefield Ohio: Civil behavior, not Civil War:
I stood in line for nearly an hour. It was very enjoyable. Everyone was friendly and polite.
As is my wont, I played the Jester. After about 45 minutes, I said “this is a long time for me to wait since I’m only voting on a single issue: the zoo levy!”
Ah, the laughs. Music to my ears since I had anticipated a more hostile crowd.
Knucklehead
Just as “liberals” cannot believe that their days in power are over and have, therefore, become blind reactionaries, “conservatives” cannot fully recognize that their days in power loom before them and, therefore, are easily spooked
I think that’s true.
Everyone MUST read The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America by John Micklethwait, Adrian Wooldridge now!
Knuckle–
Plus, a lot of those folks in The Corner (which I repeatedly warned you all to stay out of, BTW) are just plain weenies. Kathryn Jean Lopez should take a vow of silence for the next four years.
I am glad the election is over. However, the biggest loser will be the media. It starts slowly but I know most of my friends has stop watching the news and start reading the blogs. The credibility that media has is no longer there.
Back from my wire brushingÖ
This is my second try at election analysis part II. I made a bad keystroke and trashed my first post.
The electoral map makes it clear that the Democratic base consists of Hollywood, Broadway and Harvard Yard. Flyover country, even blue [really red + blue = green] states, is not comfortable with the radical coastal fringe.
Consider this. Bush may have gotten the highest percentage of the black vote since 1960. I donít think this a one off. African Americans now know that their arms wonít fall off if they pull the Republican lever. I wouldnít be surprised if the Republicans get 25% in 2008. As we all know without 90% of the black vote Democrats canít win a national election given their current position in the political spectrum. The Dems need to move to the center on social and national security issues, particularly ìgayî issues and partial birth abortion to garner more red state nation voters. In other words, they need to become a ìbig tentî party to survive. [Just think of Arnoldís convention speech as a statement of what Republicans are.]
However, I think that it is going to take another drubbing to convince the nominating constituency that this move must be made. The most likely short-term move is to get more radical just like they did after the 2002 midterms. You are going to here a lot of talk that goes ìif we had only nominated a real socialist, e.g., Howard Dean, then we would have won.î The Democrats are at the same stage the Labor Party was after the second Thatcher victory. They will want to replace an old silver spoon socialist [Anthony Wedgwood Benn] with a fresher socialist face [Neil Kinnock]. Bill Clinton was the Democratsí Tony Blair. Hillary is no Bill Clinton.
This election also reconfirms the wisdom of the founding fathers in setting up the Electoral College system. It forces political parties to address the needs of all regional interest groups. It forces candidates back to the center [as in Tullock and Buchananís median voter theorem]. Today, the Democrats represent the narrow sliver of public sentiment described above. This is a proven loser.
I believe that the Democrats are going to take the wrong lessons away from this election. They will look to Barry Goldwater as a model and assume that the public will move left to meet them. They still do not understand the Goldwater was fundamentally right on how the world works. The Democrats are fundamentally wrong on the issues.
Knucklehead
Gingrich has obviously read THE RIGHT NATION. In the final days of the campaign, when Kerry & Bush were tied in the polls, he said that even if Kerry won conservatives would still be in power, because:
“He’s out in Ohio right now pretending to be us.”
(This was apropos of the goose hunt.)
DtP,
Is there a reasonably definitive count of the provisional ballots in OH yet? Not fretting, just wondering.
Dennis:
I am ready to call Fox and say “Hey I watch you guys cause you are right wing nuts like me… wassup”?
But my guesss is they got stung so bad last time over Florida that they are waiting for everybody else to jump in first. plucka pluck plucka….
Wasn’t some relative of somebody at Fox accused of messing with Fla in 2000?
As for exit polls I think people got tired of being messed with and so they lied. Or somebody messed with the model to make money on tradesports. Either way I woud say we ignore exit polls from here on out.
Whichever I am sure we will be hearing about how Bush stole the elections because the voting machines were made in the evil land of Mordor. I mean Texas.
I liked Daschle’s defeat, too. That was cool.
Just wanted to thank the Ohio evangelicals. Not being very religious I have a new found respect and gratitude to these people! That really must add coal to the liberals fire.
Kerry’s legacy will undoubtedly go the way of Gore and the MSM’s. Would love to be a fly on the wall at Moore’s house…shoot for that matter a multitude of other left wing socialists who thought they could highjack America.
I don’t know if the Dems will recover from this for decades. Daschle gone? unbelieveable.
knucklehead and Terye:
The makeup of the House makes 269 the winning number for Bush. The Republicans control more then 25 state congressional delegations. Therefore, Bush is President. The Senate will have at least 54 and probably 55 Republicans. Cheney is selected as Vice President. So if you call Fox do some education work and explain how the Constitution works.
There were 135,149 provisional ballots issued:
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/ProvBallots.htm
Bush has a 136,221 vote lead:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/index.html
It’s over.
(BTW, it is in none of the networks’ interests for it to be over. The ratings have to be better if things are up in the air compared to what they’ll be for post-victory analysis. This is as true for Fox as CBS.)
Hogarth ó As a Registered Democrat and pround Zoo-American, I’m deeply offended…
And if anyone wants to drop the Guardian a line and thank them for helping deliver Ohio to Bush, here’s the Guardian Mailing List
Chuck,
Dennis is the one to ask about typical provisional numbers. This isn’t typical because the Dem’s knock and drag of every breathing adult in Cuyahoga county isn’t typical. As I said, 90% of those provisionals are going to turnout to be phony. This is a meme development story. The provisionals need to be judged and the results made known.
FA,
I would cut the NRO crew a tiny bit of slack. They were definitely not using their heads early but they did recover. I agree with you completely that they are clueless with regard to the proper manner in which to wield power. That goes for the Reps and the RNC in particular. That’s why the change in cloture rules in the Senate is so important. The Reps cannot let the Dems create the meme that a super majority is necessary to conduct the governance of the United States. Kicking Tiny Tom out was a good start but changing cloture is the correct next move.
I have a meeting to attend. See y’all this afternoon.
The Dems won’t look at the Goldwater example; they don’t think ever structurally, they will try to stuff not theory politics, into the electorate, but stars and celebrity.
They will look to their media-anointed “rising Democratic star” Baraka Obama [as if "rising Democratic star" were his first name; all descriptions are derivative in the MSM, have you noticed ?]; they will look to Hillary ignoring that she is wholly despised by 25% of the electorate and her TV image is so pasty it should be in Madame Tussard’s; they will look to the Breck Girl who even Chris Matthews opined left no footprint on the electoral landscape [now there is an endorsement].
Will slimy Harry Reid from Nevada fare as the new minority leader in the Senate ? Not well, I presume !!!
Jerry,
But we knew this months ago. We knew that they will become even more convinced that they simply did not get ìthe message outî forcefully enough. If only the corporate, pro-Bush MSM were a bit more friendly, if only the VRWC did not shut down the Air America, if only George Soros dedicated his entire fortune, not just parts of it to the Cause, if only Swifties were litigated away from the campaign, ItÖCouldÖWork!Ö But then again, what can you expect from a Stupid Nation!
When people assume for themselves the level of moral superiority and self-righteousness that are typical for our ìintellectual elitesî there is not a chance for self-examination, which might bring them back to reality. They are the true believers. If they had power to convert us with the use of burning stakes or reeducation camps I believe few would have hesitated. It would be for our own good, you see.
While I doubt that the Leftist wide-body (it’s oh so much more than a wing) of the Democratic party is capable of change I am hopeful that the coalition of “conservatives” is capable. Here’s what I talkin’ ’bout.
As a Red Stater living in a Blue State I have slowly but surely learned that I can’t always get what I want ’cause, damn it all to hell, I live in a democracy. Politics is art of the possible. Churchill said “Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others”. He also said, “The best argument against democracy can be heard by listening to ‘average voter’”.
“Social conservatives” must recognize that, for example, they may fight off “gay marriage” but the bulk of the citizenry is slowly but surely moving toward recognizing that gay people should be allowed something that quacks and walks like the marriage duck even if we call it something else. “Personal rights” liberals need to recognize, for example, that the bulk of the citizenry is not happy with abortion as after-thought birth control especially when the after-thoughts happen a few weeks or less from natural delivery – if it looks too much like infanticide then folks don’t see it as “abortion” or “a woman’s right to choose”. Libertarians need to recognize that we’re not gonna have a privatized national highway system and free-for-alls at every darned intersection; shut up and put on your seatbelt or motorcycle helmet. Gun control loons need to recognize that Americans have a right to own firearms, like firearms, and are capable of handling them. Gun whackos need to recognize that they don’t need freakin’ machine guns and the citizenry doesn’t want them to own such things.
Lots of people, especially here at Roger’s Place, talk a lot about the “center” but as far as I can tell few people are willing to accept “centrism”. We each have some notion that we want to share the road with our fellow citizens but we all want our half out of the middle.
Just sayin’. But first we need to disenfranchise the Fourth Estate cum Fifth Column.
ALERT! Fox is announcing Kerry called Bush to concede!
Katherine:
An ethnic question. My wife was wondering how Polonia voted. She is always miffed why Poles, even post WWII immigrants, are so reliably Democratic. Do you have any sense of the Polish vote went in California. I have no idea if there is a large Polish community out in the Bay area.
WWWWWOOOooooooOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOO
OoRAHHHHHHHHH!
Kerry concedes, according to CBS radio update at the top of this hour (0900 local)…update in moments.
I’m wondering if they were waiting for Skerry to get Botox booster shots before he faced the public.
Here it comes, he’s called W.
Terrye,
When Fox’s “panel” was discussing What Went Wrong with exit polls last night, the first thing out of that idiot Juan Williams’ mouth was to suggest that the actual vote counting must be off somewhere, since so many more people in the exit polls had said they’d voted for Kerry and this wasn’t being born out by the actual votes. Only in moonbat world do exit polls trump actual votes. These people are beyond saving or conversion.
———
I bounced back and forth between Fox and the blogs, and it was glaringly obvious that old media is just no competition for the new. On Jay Cost’s blog he was giving a county by county breakdown of Ohio (and other states) showing by actual vote count where Bush was doing better, even, or not as well, and what this meant in the big picture. And the old media’s so-called analysis of the election as a whole and it’s implication to national and world politics was pathetic compared to what was going on here on Simon’s blog.
If the marriage amendment on the Ohio ballot helped get evangelicals and other social conservatives to the polls, then Bush needs to send a thank you card to Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco. Now I, personally, have no problem with gays marrying if they so wish, but I have to acknowledge that it was the sight of gays getting married in City Hall in SF that led to all those gay marriage initiatives showing up on the ballots in all those states. I wouldn’t be surprised if it helped give Bush his solid majority vote victory, too.
Terrye,
When Fox’s “panel” was discussing What Went Wrong with exit polls last night, the first thing out of that idiot Juan Williams’ mouth was to suggest that the actual vote counting must be off somewhere, since so many more people in the exit polls had said they’d voted for Kerry and this wasn’t being born out by the actual votes. Only in moonbat world do exit polls trump actual votes. These people are beyond saving or conversion.
———
I bounced back and forth between Fox and the blogs, and it was glaringly obvious that old media is just no competition for the new. On Jay Cost’s blog he was giving a county by county breakdown of Ohio (and other states) showing by actual vote count where Bush was doing better, even, or not as well, and what this meant in the big picture. And the old media’s so-called analysis of the election as a whole and it’s implication to national and world politics was pathetic compared to what was going on here on Simon’s blog.
If the marriage amendment on the Ohio ballot helped get evangelicals and other social conservatives to the polls, then Bush needs to send a thank you card to Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco. Now I, personally, have no problem with gays marrying if they so wish, but I have to acknowledge that it was the sight of gays getting married in City Hall in SF that led to all those gay marriage initiatives showing up on the ballots in all those states. I wouldn’t be surprised if it helped give Bush his solid majority vote victory, too.
I just scared my cat. I jumped and screamed and the poor thing ran under the day bed.
Kerry is going to concede. Maybe now they will give Bush New Mexico.
It is over. This long ugly campaign is over.
I don’t know how many people have seen this
Guardian interview with Tom Wolfe. It’s not a very good interview, but he talks about what we have been discussing over the last several months.
Katie and Matt on NBC are nearly morose. I’ve never seen sadder expressions. Unreal.
Katie is confused, says that there was a numerical possibility that Kerry could win. Also says the American people voted out of fear, in a sad and condescending way. If only everyone were as smart as she. Funny stuff.
Jerry
I’m going to be very interested to see how the Dems think this through, and I’ll have a bit of a front-row seat.
My husband says THE RIGHT NATION is taken seriously amongst elite Dems (not sure whether he means university profs or NYRB writers—-I’ll ask). He himself, before the race got tight, was thinking through Democratic weakness in civic religion & the military. While he was initially resistant to my view that Kerry lost when he associated himself with a military defeat in Vietnam, he came around to this pretty quickly (he’s read THE CULTURE OF DEFEAT).
The Dems are up against it, because, as Ledeen says, times change and ideas age. The Dems desperately need new ideas, and creating new ideas is not easy.
Every once in awhile I ‘see,’ or think I see, where the Dems should go. Then it escapes me.
THE RIGHT NATION is terrific as a social history of conservatives doing exactly what liberals need to do now: think things through. Forty years ago the conservative movement funded and set up think tanks, and the folks who worked in them spent their time thinking.
As a result, conservatives have a coherent world view, a coherent understanding of reality, and a coherent set of policy objectives.
Yes, there are sharp disagreements between libertarians & social conservatives.
Nevertheless, conservatives as a group have a thought-through conception of political and social reality.
Liberals do not, and that is their challenge, if they choose to accept it. It’s possible that they will; even Hillary Clinton says the Democrats could use ‘more intellectual capital.’
Rick B
How is Ray Fair’s model blown specifically?
everyone
Provisionally, what I’m taking away from this election is confidence that Samuel is right about the critical importance of internal polling data on ‘leadership.’ Leadership relates to victory and defeat in war, of course, which is why I felt absolutely that once Kerry had tied himself to Vietnam he would lose.
I was horrified when Kerry then tied up the polls.
I’ve had a different take on a Kerry win than most folks here.
I don’t think a Kerry presidency would have made us more vulnerable to terrorist attack.
I do think Kerry would have lost Iraq.
My horror at a Kerry presidency had to do with Iraq, but also with the legacy of Vietnam specifically, and more broadly with what a Kerry win might mean for our ‘civic religion.’
Kerry is certainly the only presidential candidate in my lifetime who was accused by his fellow soldiers of being unfit to command. For me that fact alone meant he shouldn’t have been the Democratic Party nominee.
That the MSM largely refused to acknowledge the seriousness of the Swift Boat charges was a second reason I dreaded a Kerry victory.
A Kerry victory, I feel, would have been corrosive to American civic religion. (Civic? Civil? I should probably look these terms up before I write posts about them . . . )
I don’t understand civic religion well, but I do know that our soldiers are part of it: the soldiers themselves, and our image of them, are central to American identity and meaning. Our soldiers are an important part of what allows us to function as Americans instead of random individuals who happen to live in the same country–or, even worse–competing groups of ethnic or social identities.
I think that’s why Bush voters put “Support Our Troops” stickers on their cars instead of Bush-Cheney stickers.
They were saying: For me, this election is about more than George Bush.
Kerry has violated core requirements (requirement? yuck) of civic religion. He called his fellow soldiers war criminals & monsters; he met with the enemy while still wearing his country’s uniform; he spent his entire career ‘investigating’ his country, looking for the bad.
He positioned himself as an outsider to America, not an insider. A critic.
I don’t want to imply that I believe in blind loyalty to our country or to an administration. I don’t. Part of our civic religion is that we keep a sharp eye out for b*s, call it when we see it, slug it out with the loyal opposition every four years, and resolve our differences through the ballot.
Kerry was something different.
Kerry was a person who gave the feeling that he did not, at his core, believe in America.
I’ve been struggling all this time to try to say what was the ‘One Thing’ wrong with John Kerry, and maybe, finally, that’s it.
He may have been a religious man, a committed Catholic. He said he was.
But when it came to America, he was not a believer.
Terrye
Wasn’t some relative of somebody at Fox accused of messing with Fla in 2000?
Yeah.
John Ellis.
George Bush’s cousin.
penwil:
Juan is a major pain in the ass. He just says that stuff to be obnxious. Nobody is that damn stupid. But I do like it when Brit smacks him around.
I don’t know if Bush thanked the idiot mayor of San Francisco for making gay marriage an issue in national politics but I sent an email to Michael Moore and thanked him for helping W win this election. God knows F911 might be a hit with the folks at Cannes, but I think it is safe to say that most of them are not registered voters in Ohio.
Another thought from this weary (and in the best of time painfully weak) mind…
I just half listened to two talking heads on FNC. One seemed to be suggesting that this election’s turnout numbers were something less than meaningful and that “inertia is the most powerful force in the universe”; i.e, nothing particularly noteworthy really happened yesterday. The other talking head, a woman, seemed to be suggesting that Bush’s win can be seen as nothing more than the people being afraid (my term, not hers) to accept change in uncertain times.
I think those are excellent example of the disorder the “elites” suffer from. They really do think we are a bunch of inetia-ridden dummies afraid of change. I don’t believe this is the case. I believe there was significant recognition by the electorate, and that it was demonstrated yesterday, that the world is changing and that Bush recognizes that better than John Kerry does.
I know that my support for Bush is not based on a desire to “not change”. It is based on desperately hoping we can change quickly enough to meet a whole long list of new challenges rather than continuing to pretend we are faced with the same old challenges we’ve faced for the past 30 years or so. Its a new freakin’ world and if we don’t get braver in a big hurry we’re gonna be sorry.
Kathryn Jean Lopez should take a vow of silence for the next four years.
Let me add a hearty “hear, hear” to your sentiment. Maybe it was the chianti she was drinking…..
CNN reporting election still ‘up in air’ at 11:30 EST—–is this wrong?
Wow.
Fox News: Kerry concedes.
I’m doing a screen grab of the photo, which I plan to pass along to my grandchildren.
Catherine–
Ray Fair’s model was calling for a Bush landslide, approximately 56-57% PV, +-3% MOE. This one gives him an error rate of 5-6%. His previous worst performance was in ’92, I believe, when he was 2.5% off. His model had been averaging an error of 1.5%. I think Rick nailed it: the MSM’s egregious lies were the difference. He’ll have to add another variable to his formula for Dan Rather, I guess.
Catherine:
I absolutely agree with you.
When the Dems picked Kerry I was surprised.
We had men dying in battle and they pick a man who deliberately insulted his comrades in arms.
Now I don’t think all war protestors are bad people, that is not what I mean. But to be CinC requires that men be prepared to die on your order. We can not give that job to a man they despise.
It is just wrong.
Gale does not read political books, but he said simply “That man does not deserve that job.”
To him it was that simple and obvious. This is how we were raised.
Check out the NYTIMES web site.
Another screen grab for posterity!
TmjUtah
You were asking about other examples of conservative meltdown. I was on the road yesterday listening to the radio, and Rush and Hannity were sounding very panicked. I don’t know if this was good or bad – it may have given more or our people an incentive to go and vote. But I was surprised that these people would fall for those clearly flawed exit polls.
I guess hanging around the blogs has made me more politically savvy than Rush!
So my thanks to Roger and all the fine posters here for their insightful commentary.
I met a Columbia J school student who was covering the local elections. I’m forwarding her a list of the better center-right blogs in the (probably vain) hope that this particular journalist will at least be aware that there is another side.
Terrye
Yes, exactly.
That man does not deserve that job.
This was the heart of the matter.
Not Democrats versus Republicans, not liberals versus conservatives, not even war on terror versus police action on terror.
All of those conflicts mattered, but they weren’t the heart and soul of it, not for me.
When Kerry was nominated, I called myself an Anyone But Kerry voter, and I was.
We had men dying in battle, and the Democrats chose a man who called his fellow soldiers monsters.
Called his fellow soldiers monsters, and never, ever, understood why that was wrong.
..and a hearty EFF-YOU to Osama Bin Laden, Michael Moore, Jimmy Carter, Jacques Chirac, Al Gore, Markos Moultsitas, Barbra Streissand, Susan Sarandon, Dan Rather, Evan Thomas, the Two Adams (Nagourney and Clymer), Nedra Pickler and Scott Lindlaw from Associated Press, Joe Wilson, Richard Clarke and all the other buttheads who helped make this victory so sweet!
In fact, I’m going to send a little thank-you e-mail to Scott (“I heard boos”) Lindlaw right now.
Heh! A Barking Moonbat at DU agrees with me!
We the People did not wait in line for “more of the same”. We waited in line for “Faster, please!” The result was not “massively fraudulent” but, for the Reactionaries, it was no doubt “deeply disturbing”.
Catherine –
–As a result, conservatives have a coherent world view, a coherent understanding of reality, and a coherent set of policy objectives.–
The world is our petrie dish via this invention of Al Gore’s and we can do our experiments in our pajamas, to boot.
Well, as far as I am concerned, all is forgiven with NRO and The Corner thanks to this post from Derbyshire
Knucklehead
We the People did not wait in line for “more of the same”. We waited in line for “Faster, please!”
Boy, oh boy, it is sweet, isn’t it. (And Fresh Air—–yeah.)
No one’s said it yet: two up, one to go.
Michael Howard, George Bush, Tony Blair.
I’d say the Islamists are hearing this loud and clear. (OK, I’m hoping they’re hearing it loud and clear. NO ONE on the planet surpasses the Islamists in their capacity to spin victory out of defeat.)
You know what?
I’m gonna take that walk we were talking about yesterday.
But not quite yet—-
from Daily Kos:
Rick Ballard:
You’re right. This race was much closer than the Fair Model predicted (Bush 57%). But Fair himself says that the underlying assumption of his model is that people are voting their pocketbooks.
The proper conclusion from the actual results is, IMO, not that the Fair Model is incorrect but that current depressed what would otherwise have been a stronger Bush victory. This is even worse news for Democrats since it suggests that more of what they’ve been doing is not the ticket to success.
You might want to look at my post in which I give my ideas on what the Democrats need to do.
Just e-mailed to Scott Lindlaw of Associated Press, the man who said it was “my mission” to defeat the president”:
Mr. Lindlaw:
I would like to congratulate you on your fine work in getting President Bush re-elected. Thanks in part to your unbearably biased reporting, Republicans turned out in droves yesterday. We owe you a debt of gratitude.
May all your political endeavors turn out as well in the future. If not, perhaps you should try another line of work more useful to society–like cleaning horse stables at a petting zoo.
Yours truly,
XXX
Catherine,
Golly, gee, I hope I’m the first to be this trite! I love the smell of napalm in the morning! It smells like… Victory!
Enjoy your walk! A bright and sunny day it is, indeed, here in Blueville!
Catherine, I’m saving that.
It’s beautiful and going to come in handy.
Everybody–
See this link and scroll down if you want a huge laugh at the Democratic Underground’s expense. These guys are melting like the Wicked Witch. ROFLMAO!
Regarding Ohio’s Provisional Ballots-
The only report I have seen on those ballots is a CNN story that 50,000 had been counted with the vote breaking 2-1 in favor of Bush. If this is true, it is probably what sealed Kerry’s decision to concede.
Regarding Ohio’s Provisional Ballots, Redux-
The conventional wisdom is that the provisional ballots are rife with fraud. I don’t buy that. While it is clear that Democratic Party operatives wanted to turn the provisional ballot into a phantom voter vehicle, it is also clear that Kenneth Blackwell was all over that from the beginning.
I cannot emphasize to all of you to what extent Blackwell went to to ensure there would be no statewide systematic fraud. He took on the Ohio Republican Party, the Ohio Democratic Party, and a couple of Federal judges and won. I’ve followed this guy since he started in Cincinnati 25 years ago, and can only say he is an extremely talented and energetic man. With any luck he will be our next governor and our first African-American senator.
Utah-
I don’t follow The Corner. On good days it sucks and on bad ones it sucks out loud.
At the risk of honking my own horn, I have found that I am really good at calling national elections. I’ve been doing so since 1972 and have been wrong once (1992 I called Bush over Clinton). So I do my thing, come to my conclusion and then make sure I constantly remind myself to trust my own judgement. Part of the trusting part is to ensure that I give absolutely no credence t the MSM at any time.
What you saw yesterday was the MSM bleat finally getting to The Corner, Rush and Hannity. I don’t find the MSM as interesting in and of itself, so I think I am less tempted to waver based on their bullshit. If you focus on what the candidate’s campaigns are doing, rather than on spin, you will be able to figure out what is really going on. The MSM plays to spin, campaign managers play to win.
Terrye-
I didn’t turn the TV on until 2:30 AM (I was monitoring Ohio’s voting at the Sec. of State’s site from 9PM until 2:30AM, running spreadsheets of county by county projections over the same time period, and posting here at this site. I watched Fox from 2:30 and 3:00. It was very clear to me that Brit Hume was ready and wanted to call the election for Bush at that time. It was also very clear that his producers where refusing to allow him to do so. I don’t think it was failure of nerve on Brit’s part, but failure of nerve on the part of Rupert Murdoch.
I did catch Tom Brokaw trying to get Rudy G. to back off his assertion that Kerry should have conceeded last night. Poor little Tom, bleating “But it is only one more day!” What a schmuck.
I also caught Juan Williams. My God, how that guy got a job as a ‘journalist’ is simply beyond me. He is dumber than a box of dead crabs and a schmuck. He’d do better if he was driving a garbage truck.
Susan Estrich was once famously described as ” that left-leaning tower of pissantry”. It is a good description. However, she sounds like Carol Channing. Carol Channing with a really bad case of P.M.S..
Now if you will excuse me, I want to go to Joseph Mailander’s, Steve Smith’s and Swopa’s sites. Not to rub it in, but just to laugh to myself.
Howard Dean running the Democratic Party?
That will get the ship righted.
OK, I have showered, dressed, consumed vitamins (as well as, sad to say, two snack-size packs of Lay’s Potato chips) and I am off for My Walk.
Don’t know whether one, two, or no dogs will accompany me, and don’t care!
I’ll find out when I get to the door.
I’m looking forward to reading Dave Schuler’s analysis of Ray Fair’s model when I get back.
But first: I want to write and post this.
I have had harsh things to say about Senator John Kerry, even today, which puts me in the category of sore winner.
But he has chosen to concede; he has called the President to offer his congratulations; he will deliver his concession speech at 1.
He has done the right thing.
Throughout the campaign John Kerry has made me feel that he was an “unbeliever” when it came to our civic religion.
But today he has acted like the believer I am going to take it on faith that he is.
Dave Schuler:
I read your article and I appluad you for
it but don’t give us Cokie Roberts’ warmed over gruel, give us your prescription for the Democratic Party.
thanks
Jerry,
Short answer: I have no idea how our local Polonia voted.
I am being told that there is largish Polish community in the Bay Area (there is even authentic Polish restaurant near where I live) but I know noting about them. I never kept up with Polish immigrant community, perhaps because so few of them are capable of shedding their heavy ethnic baggage, which include sense of entitlement (we suffered for the world, so the world owes us now) and air of superiority, rather typical for provincial Europeanism. Besides, the earlier immigrants were typically sticking it to the later ones for not staying and fighting Communism to the end. All this annoys me.
My friendship with one immigrant Polish couple spontaneously dissolved when after 9-11 all they could talk about was creation of Department of Interior (i.e. Dept. of Homeland Security) and comparing that to its Soviet equivalent, and complaining how Neanderthal Americans were beating up Brown People on the streets in revenge for the WTC. And these are people with degrees, and high paying jobs. Perhaps part of the problem is that they consider themselves to be very very clever and do not let you ever to forget it.
I guess the reason why so many ethnic Poles vote Dem is that on economic issues they prefer Swedish socialism to American free-market, the pipe dream of many late night discussions when Communists still ruled. They also listen to the Pope, who is unfortunately very much against out evil consumerist ways. The Pope also expressed his opposition to the war in Iraq.
Poles were voting for Reagan only because he fought Communism.
They still need to connect the individual freedom with the freedom from external oppression.
Yes, isnít it interesting that Sen John ìI donít fall downî Kerry is more graceful loser than our wonderful, clever Al Gore (even if the concession was forced by more clear cut results).
I am spent and have a splitting headache. But before I log off I would like to thank you all again for your wonderful insights. I will also be dropping by Rogerís tip jar later today, after I manage to locate such important objects as my purse in my immediate universe.
Congratulations to us all.
Knucklehead
Enjoy your walk! A bright and sunny day it is, indeed, here in Blueville!
Back from walk here in Blueville, which is going to be my nickname for Here forevermore.
I had one seriously un-Christian moment this morning, driving my son to school. There were all the other moms, riding high in their Land Rovers and Lexi, the moms whose children have made it necessary for my own ten year old to hide his feelings about his country’s president.
I looked at them all and had a few moments of very dark thoughts.
Fully recovered now!
I have found that I am really good at calling national elections. I’ve been doing so since 1972 and have been wrong once (1992 I called Bush over Clinton). So I do my thing, come to my conclusion and then make sure I constantly remind myself to trust my own judgement. Part of the trusting part is to ensure that I give absolutely no credence t the MSM at any time.
Good for you!
I’ve taken this as a Core Principle ever since you and a few others clued me into it, but I find it somewhat difficult to follow what the campaigns are doing . . .
I’m not willing to do the county math on election night, though given how intensely I’ve fallen in love with the subject thru homeschooling my son in the subject, I should probably start.
It would be a hell of a lot better project than figuring out that the pattern in the Math Enrichment Problem can be solved by counting the number of letters it takes to write the words one through seven.
And yes, yes, yes, thanks, everyone, for being around yesterday.
Jerry
I know exactly where you are… I would from Falls Church proceed down West St, turn right on Lincoln Ave and follow it until it turned into Washington Blvd on which Westover is located you are very close to me, probably 2-3 miles… very blue area indeed (but at least the State is Red).
Catherine
Leadership is critical and part of the “strong horse” selection process Clinton always talked about. Make no mistake, this President is a strong leader of historical consequence. But we must not underestimate the “values” issue. That is why this president won Ohio and the Popular Vote, 20% of the electorate voted on values alone. Republican shattered the voting models, especially in Ohio. By historical standards the Democrats should have won and huge. They did everything right, they out preformed in Cleveland and held down Republicans in Cincinatti. But the truth is the Democrats didn’t lose in truth Bush won and that is a huge difference. Republicans beat the Democrats on the ground game. They won by turning out the base and new voters that had never voted before in Western Ohio, and they voted on values.
I am glad I am not a Democrat looking at the political landscape these days, they have their work cut out. The divide between the secular and religious needs to be addressesed. Blue staters better stop belittling Social Conservatives or they will be in the Wilderness for a very long time.
Social Conservatism not Fiscal Conservatism is the reason why the Democrats are losing voters. This has been the case since the 1960′s. Democrats blame it on racism, “Southern Strategies” etc., yet they couldn’t be more wrong. It is “religion and common sense” vs. “intellectuals and secularism” and to use a phrase from the heartland… “that dog don’t hunt!” Refering to Social Conservatives as “The Taliban Wing” and making fun of the religious must end. Many blue staters draw some sort of moral equivelence between “Islamofacists” and “Social Conservatives” when in truth Social Conservatives are most apt to support the cause of freedom. Again, Democrats have their work cut out. They can’t just to take a position and fake it, they need to become true belivers themeselves… will this do it? We will see.
Those who call John Kerry a “graceful loser” are wrong. A 3.5 million vote mandate is enough to tame anyone into a “graceful loser”. I know John Kerry and had he like Al Gore won the Popular Vote by .5 million votes he would be just as bad as Gore was. Very simply Bush and the Republicans kicked his and the Democrats ass. The Republicans went in with 51 Senate seats and came away with 55. They now have over 230 House Seats. They increased Governerships and also “slew the dragon” Tom Dascle. Again that will make a humble loser out of anyone.
It was clear that there was no possible way for Kerry to win Ohio starting about 1:00 AM Eastern. And yet, CNN tried for another eight hours to pretend that Ohio was “close”. Truly a despicable biased performance by CNN.
Samuel;
I suspected as much. But I was trying to be magnanimous