Of course I will be doing it here. How could I resist? But I will be checking in frequently with new Horserace Blog, which I have only recently discovered. It’s a great place for making sense of the weird science of political polls. For election day, the blogger is setting up a “crack team of observers” to stream data from nine swing states.
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I definitely agree about Horserace Blog. I’ve been checking in ever since I discovered his blog. He is studying for a PhD in Political Science, so he knows what he is talking about. One big question is Michael Moore’s best friend – how will this tape influence the election? (And isn’t there any way to charge MM with aiding and abetting the enemy???)
Roger and Lola
I bumbled into the Horserace Blog a few weeks ago and have been impressed by his objectivity. (I don’t mean to say he is not a partisan; I mean he is objective while being a partisan.)
It should be a lot of fun to follow his running commentary on Tuesday. (Or at least as much as I can during a twelve to fourteen hour workday!)
Jamie Irons
Oops!
Roger, I followed your “link” to the Horserace Blog and got a CNN article on the (happy) state of Arafat’s health.
Jamie Irons
Thanks. Fixed.
Jay Cost (Horserace Blog) has also been mentioned a couple of times on Rush’s show, NRO, and Opinion Journal. NOBODY does better analysis of the numbers analysis then Jay. And he’s been able to drill down to the district level in some battleground states.
“Your crystal ball” into the election.
READ his PAST posts. READ the COMMENTS (there are some pretty smart people commenting, too).
Thanks…it does seem the Horserace Blog will help me get through the work day Tuesday (and well into the night too I suppose).
Slightly OT on OBL video, the NYT cover story by Adam Nagourney goes so far as to say that its “a bit of a stretch, no doubt” that Osama was, in effect, endorsing Kerry.
Now I’m already desensitized to the NYT’s moulding of the facts, but what other conclusion can one reach about OBL’s intent? Does anyone reading here have any theories on whether the Islanimal-in-Chief would actually be hoping for a Bush win? Or is he so clueless about Americans that his action might just rally people round the president? Curious of what you all think.
I am very impressed by Jay Cost. Everything he says dovetails with the insights of Raymond E. Wolfinger and other academics specializing on our voting system. In other words, Cost is embracing the conventional wisdom. He is not an iconoclast! The liberal elitists so desperately wish to destroy President Bush that they have turned into stark raving lunatics.
Bruce W,,
Maybe it’s something as simple as this:
Osama has been reading the NYT and watching CNN, and he, or whoever wrote the speech, obviously watched Farenheit 9/11. If this was the source of your info on the state of the American electorate, wouldn’t you assume that the country is just itching to throw the lying, goat-book reading Bush out on his ear?
So you cut a tape warning Americans not to vote for Bush or else, and then when Bush loses, as you assume he’s was already going to, you can claim the credit for having brought that about on the Arab street. I, the mighty OBL, scared those pathetic Americans into voting out the Great Satan Bush. Especially since, (baring a last minute physical attack) a video tape is the best he can manage at the moment, yet he knows that, especially after Spain, his followers have been expecting some move on his part.
Look at how our own media has colored the Europeans’ views of America. I don’t think we should underestimate how much influence all the relentless negativity and Bush-bashing has had on the ME players, in particular our enemies.
People are asking how OBL could be misjudging us so? Well, if you were on the outside looking in, and your primary, if not only source, on the American people is the MSM, how would you be reading the mood of the American electorate at this time?
if you were on the outside looking in, and your primary, if not only source, on the American people is the MSM, how would you be reading the mood of the American electorate at this time?
Outstanding point, Penwil, it would be a marvelous thing if the DNC/MSM editors who slant the coverage could be confronted with the fact that their slant kills people. Can you imagine what might happen if the press reported the WoT objectively? If they noted that resistance was futile and that W has had a noted tendency to do precisely what he promised to do (wrt the WoT, at any rate)? Unfortunately, the idea must remain imaginary because the MSM remains focused upon a slant that will minimize the landslide that is about to occur. I truly hope that they reap in full the reward that they have earned.
ìI don’t think we should underestimate how much influence all the relentless negativity and Bush-bashing has had on the ME players, in particular our enemies.î
Iíve been arguing for a long time that the MSM has inadvertently encouraged the terrorists to continue their activities in Iraq. The latter are almost certainly convinced that they merely need to be patient. A twenty point lead in the polls for President Bush would immediately demoralize them. They are very well aware that the country is bitterly divided concerning Iraq—and these so-called insurgents are taking full advantage of this fact.
I like Horserace and I concur with his statements on Zogby. The numbers in Colorado were enough to convince me they were not to be trusted.
Speaking of surveys and methodology and such I read debunking by Fred Kaplan at Slate on the report done for Lancet on the Iraqi body count. It seems there is a far more reputable group of Brits [who use real facts] that have the numbers at between 14,000 and about 16,000. Not good, but not as bad as 100,000 for Heaven’s sake.
Now just wait and see in his next appearance Osama will use the jacked up report to justify killing Americans.
So yes I think the press is out to get Bush and in so doing they have painted a very ugly picture of Americans in general. But much of the elite press, like Dan Rather, is rich and insular and has not a clue what life is like for most of us anyway.
I would love to see Lancet explain how that paper got published in a perr-reviewed serious scientific journal.
Even that one.
Charlie (C): having published in peer reviewed journals, it seems highly unlikely that article got a peer review–and if it did, I would LOVE to see the time line. As a larger issue the role of “science” and how it impinges on politics does not look the scientific community look any too good. As a case in point, the slime job the scientific community did on the Danish statistician, Bjorn Lomborg, who looked critically at the data on global warming and found it wanting–Scientific American devoted an entire issue trying to debunk Professor Lomborg citing such “authorities” as the science writers for Time Magazine. For all of the squawking about the role of science in policy decisions as espoused by the Senator and his ilk, I am beginning to prefer a more faith based approach!
I read elsewhere that the author of this study would only let it be published if it was done before the election.
On Large Turnout:
Yesterday was the last day to vote early in AZ, so i went to the Scottsdale City Hall at 3 PM. A small room was jammed with citizens, two stolid county clerks were doing 2-finger typing on two computers, and one gracious woman was trying to organize us. “We didn’t expect such a large group.” I filled out an ID form and was told it would be two hours. “Don’t go far–we close and lock up at 5,” I was warned. People sat at picnic tables on the lawn, on the grass, on steps, waiting, while more walked up to vote. I walked to the library and got a new card, checked out a book, and joined a group at a table. They had arrived at 1:30, been shopping, and were back. An old man came up and said, “Anyone here voting for Kerry?” We all sat silent until I finally broke and said, “Not me. I’m voting for Bush.” More silence. He toddled away and sat at another table. We talked kids, weather, books, travel. I went back in and offered to help. “I can alphebatize, hand out forms, call names.”
“The computer is the delay,” she said.
“We only have one to search names, and one to prepare the ballot. They should have sent us more.”
“I could go home and get my laptop.”
“You wouldn’t have the software. Besides, it’s illegal for you to help.”
The couple who came at 1:30 finally voted at 4:45. We were told everyone would vote no matter how long it took, and they changed shifts at 5 to keep going. I voted at 5:15 and the crowd was larger then than it had been earlier. By the time I left I had hugged several of the voters and the stressed manager–we had all bonded. It was warm and sunny, the two bicycle cops were chatty, everyone was calm and determined to vote, and it was a good community feeling.
RogerA,
The willingness of the media to sacrifice the vestigal remnant of honor that they have retained to date in order to blatantly try and influence the result of an election whose result has not been in doubt since the Iowa caucus is the best indication that I know of that Tuesday will be a watershed event. W’s re-election is going to be a confirmation that a great number of illusions are now impossible to maintain. The first of those illusions will be that of an “evenly” divided populace (unless you consider 55-45 to be even), the second will be the power of the MSM itself, the third will be the utility of the UN and other international institutions (as far as the American people are concerned) and the fourth will be the efficacy of the Democrat party as currently constituted.
The segment of the scientific community that produced and promoted the Lancet piece are closely akin to those who tried to discredit Lomborg. They recognize to the same extant that the MSM recognizes, that this election has the potential to destroy the illusion upon which rests their utopian dreams. If you were an ecologist with a pink tinge you’d be horrified at the probable outcome too. Your vision of returning American society to a hunter/gather status would have to be postponed indefinitely and you might be forced to try and find a real job.
This is the eleventh presidential election that I’ve watched closely and my honest opinion is that the two parties have conducted themselves in rather typical manners. I really haven’t seen anything egregiously wrong in the conduct of either party. On the other hand I’ve never seen the media behave as atrociously as they have behaved this year. Watching an institution desperately trying to hang onto power by any means possible has been fascinating.
BTW – the FEC just announced that due to the large crowds expected at the voting booths, those voting for Rep candidates should cast their votes on Tuesday while those voting for Dems are advised that Wednesday is their day.
As for OBL getting all of his info from MSM and other left leaning places I wonder if he might have access to the blogers I have been reading for the past month or so. So what do you think?
This comment should really appear on Horserace that you linked to. However I do not find a convenient way to post there and I am sure that readers on this blog will also be interested. The issue is the Iowa Electronic Market Indicator, which decidedly turned towards Kerry last week. Although, there was definite tightening shown by this indicator, the reason for the large move towards Kerry was almost totally technical. The poll,-you can see if you scroll down – is a composite of two components for both sides, i.e. Bush winning by greater than 52% of the votes and Bush winning by less than 52%. Kerry has the same two components making up the composite. If you look at the component charts you can see that the large move was caused by the collapse of the Bush greater than 52% component. Bush win still stayed ahead except for a microscopically small advantage for Kerry on Thursday (Qacqua Explosives?), which smartly reversed on Friday (Osama Video?)decidedly to Bush’s favor. Collapse of the greater than 52% popular vote for Bush is totally understandable, considering the closeness of the race and the closeness of the election date. The second issue is probably clearer to people familiar with option and future trading, it means the “disappearence of the time premium as the expiration date gets nearer”.
Tom
about that Lancet article:
Have you noted the interesting fact that it was safer to be in Baghdad during the war, than it was to be in Paris during August of 2003?? If I recall correctly, some 15,000 people died of the heat, most of them old and dependent; and their relatives expected the morgues to keep the bodies until they got back from their vacations.
As to Osama: I still don’t think that guy is the real guy; but I think the plan is to make a deal with Kerry – you know, one of those solemn meetings in Versaille, everyone signing documents, and getting on TV.
Yes, the MSM has a whole lot to answer for.
RogerA, I agree with your points about Lancet and peer-reviewed journals etc so completely that I should just say “ditto” except I’m embarrassed to.
I cancelled my Scientific American subscription over the Lomberg thing.
Mugford:
“As for OBL getting all of his info from MSM and other left leaning places I wonder if he might have access to the blogers I have been reading for the past month or so.”
I was wondering the same thing when reading Penwil’s ideas, but I don’t know how many left leaning blogs there are in comparison to the those on the right side of things. I visit some of the left’s from time to time to keep my humor up (and to remind myself that my Roger-like migration away from there was on the money), but I don’t have a handle on the largeness of their presence. But the bottom line on AQ is that they probably don’t have sufficient human resources with adequate English skills to distinguish between sarcasm and direct statements, the former being much more prevalent in this virtual world. He aslo may suspect that “unknown” non-MSM sources could easily be as insane and full of sh_t as he must know (deep down somewhere) that he is.
By the way, I did catch a reference in the NY Post of an Arab-democrat named Zogby (not sure if its the same as the Zogby polls or a relative) who believes OBL’s intent was to get Bush re-elected, as it would result in a steep rise in new recruits to his quirky club. If so, and it works, I guess some retrained degree of not-so-sarcastic appreciation will be in order.
I am no scientist [obviously] but it seems the author of the report was more interested in short term politcal gains than long term consequences of looking incompetent. It is also one of those when did you stop beating your wife things. How do you prove you did not kill 100,000 people?
The scientist has to know what this would mean in terms of cadavers and the sudden increase in starving orphans etc, which has not occured. The BBC as well as some Arab press would not hesitate to make things look as bad as they could and there is no way we would not be seeing and hearing of these tens of thousands of dead on a daily basis. My God a suicide bomber sends the world press into a tizzy, a beheading and they are beside themselves.
This just goes to show you the power of group think. Just look at the Jenin massacre. The Israelis have been living with this shit for years, no wonder they are so tough.
They are brothers. John Is the famous (infamous?) pollster and James is the President of the Arab-American Institute. Daniel Pipes believes that ìJames Zogby Justifies Palestinian Terrorism.î:
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/165
I’ve been reading Horserace as well as Hedgehog and Polipundit the last few days.
Comments too. Especially hedgehog and polipundit. Shorter comments, less overall analysis, easier to digest in these last few days. And it’s been fun with both sides hurling stuff at each other.
In other words, it’s closer to the election and philosophical pieces no longer hold their appeal..soundbytes and “we’re going to leave you in the dust on Tuesday” are about as deep as I feel like diving now.
Maybe it’s weariness, maybe it’s natural. I don’t know.
I just hope and pray I don’t ever have to see Kerry’s face or hear that voice again after the coming week. I’m not following news closely anymore because they always manage to put him on the screen.
May America at least be as smart as Australia!
Syl–yes, agree that polipundit is especially good on poll explanations–and the shorter post format is satisfying to an extent–Still–I continue to rely on the more thoughtful posts I continue to see here–I guess it is the INTP part of my personality. And yes–I will be one happy camper when this election is history and we can debate issues that I think will be much more divergent.
I agree wholeheartedly on the wisdom from Horserace Blog, Hedgehog and Polipundit. I also came upon most of these in the last few weeks. They’re excellent sources, well documented and believable — also a shelter in the time of storm.
I would also recommend Daly Thoughts (http://dalythoughts.com/)Blog.
I am confiden that President Bush is going to win this election by a surprisingly large amount. I must admit though, the fear of a Kerry victory is so palpable that I am still frightened going in to Tuesday. There can be no question that in the eyes of all our adversaries from our blood enemies in the Mid East to the feckless Europeans who oppose us, to the adversariwes in our own country, a Bush defeat would be a defeat for all his policies including his broad war on terror. Someday the Democratic party is going to haver to take responsibility for the GWOT but that year cannot be this year. There is too much poison. the Bush people have been badly hurt by the MSM. This has been going on since May of 2003. Daily bad news reported without context and without corresponding good news has worn Bush’s approval ratings down nearly twenty points. An effort that should have 75 percent approval continues to eck out a bare majority. But I do believe that from the summer forward Bush has been largely immune to further damage from either the MSM or inaccurate smears from Kerry. Kerry, on the other hand has been quite vulnerable. Even before the OBL tape, I was convinced the Al Quaqua story wouldn’t hurt and might actually help Bush. No one undecided is going to vote for Kerry on such an issue and no Bush supporter would either. The Times preaches to the choir. Ont he other hand, as the blogosphere makes clear, there is white hot anger at the MSM and Kerry, the “establishment” that has oppenly tried to manipulate stories to benefit a Democratic challenger. They will teach the MSM a lessont they will never forget. In a second term, Bush needs to work hard to reestablish a base of support for his foreign policies of well ove 65 percent and needs to work every day to appeal to the public for support knowing his enemies will be back to pounce as soon as the Inaugural Ball is over. We will nto win this war if close to fifty percent of the electorate don’t realize we are fighting it.
All the regular commenters here at Roger’s
I’ve been reading comments here for some time and think I know where most of you stand, but how about predictions?
BobT: My prediction has been for some time Bush by 55±2 percent popular vote and > 300 electoral votes.
Oh, and will the margin of victory exceed the margin of litigation?
I use http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
I find Gerry Daly’s Electoral College blog Much Much easier to read and use.
Very little scrolling necessary.
Easy movements to links on each state.
State links show EVERY poll taken in the last year – you can see the trends for yourself.
Gerry give clear solid reasons for his preference in polls.
I’ve used him to teach my 8th grade history class about the election and the electoral college. They get it thanks tol Gerry … which is more than you could ever say about Donna Brazile or Al Gore.
I use http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
I find Gerry Daly’s Electoral College blog
Much Much easier to read and use.
Very little scrolling necessary.
Easy movements to links on each state.
State links show EVERY poll taken in the last year -
you can see the trends for yourself.
Gerry gives clear solid reasons for his preference in polls.
Try him, see if you agree.
I’ve used him to teach my 8th grade history class about the election and the electoral college. They get it thanks to Gerry … which is more than you could ever say about Donna Brazile or Al Gore.
P.S. Gerry is NOT a relative or friend of mine.
My prediction
I’m hating this.
According to Daly as of 9:14 pm Oct. 31 PST
Solid States for Bush = 222 electoral votes.
Solid staes for Kerry = 186 electorial votes.
BUSH leads in popular vote all evening
eventually wins the popular vote by 2.5%
He looks good winning NH +4 = 226
But KERRY squeezes out margins of victory of .4%-.1%
in PA + 21 votes = 207
in MI + 17 votes = 224
in WI + 10 votes = 234
in MN + 10 votes = 244
All the buzz is in Colorado over Prop 7(?) the one that could make CO’s votes proportional.
Things go smoothly in Florida if only because “the whole world is watching.” Fox makes an early call for Bush in FL and is right.
in FL +27 = 253
OK not all the buzz. OHIO is a mess. Poll watchers’ challenges are backed up by international observers. A dozen Dem laywers (Alan Dershewicz wanna-bes) go before magistrates and lose as Democratic judges nominated by John Glenn in the ’70′s choose the word of the observers over the Clintonistas. It’s 11 pm EST and there’s little hope this will be clear soon.
Though late IA goes for Bush + 7 = 260
NV falls in line + 5 = 265
International Observers save NM + 5 = 270
Bush wins? wait! The Prop in Colorado makes a mysterious comeback a la Kennedy in Illinois AND PASSES. Colorado’s 10 votes are split 6-4 for BUSH giving him 266.
ALL EYES ARE ON HAWAII.
Who suprises no one by going for Kerry +4 = 252.
Bush 266
Kerry 252
In the Ohio aftermath International Observers privately say that the registration process is below 3rd world standards. The mainstream media does not report this but instead we hear from Julian Bond, Revs Jackson and Sharpton who complain about republicans who systemically disenfanchised minorities though they offer no proof.
And we wait while they litigate Colorado and Ohio.
This is NOT what I want. Its what I’m predicting.
Remember: You read it here Sunday Oct 31 10pm PST