Johnson Will Roll the Dice and Bring Ukraine Aid to the Floor

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

House Speaker Mike Johnson is on the cusp of being summarily dumped by the right wing of his party after it was suggested that the rules be changed to require more than one member to sign on to a motion to remove the speaker from office. 

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A Johnson ally, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.), urged the conservatives to go ahead and try it.

"The vast majority of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives ... are sick and tired of having people who ... constantly blackmail the speaker of the House," Van Orden told Axios.

As he was walking out, Van Orden was surrounded by angry members. At one point, Van Orden called Rep. Matt Gaetz "tubby."

Johnson has apparently decided to die on his feet rather than live on his knees. He announced his plan to bring a series of five foreign aid bills to the House floor to be voted on,, possibly as early as Saturday.

As a sign of what is to come, the rules for debate fashioned by the House Rules Committee needed Democratic support to be passed and sent to the floor. 

CNN:

Three bills in the foreign aid package would provide aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region, with the latter intended to help deter Chinese aggression in the area. A fourth bill includes other House GOP priorities, including sanctions on Iran, the seizure of frozen Russian sovereign assets and a measure that could lead to a nationwide ban of TikTok.

The three House aid bills add up to about $95 billion – the same amount the Senate bill included – with an adjustment that $10 billion in Ukraine economic assistance is in the form of a repayable loan, CNN has reported.

The three assistance bills are similar to the foreign aid legislation that passed the Senate in February. The fourth House bill was not part of the Senate package.

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The Rules Committee vote was almost unprecedented. It's rare that the minority party comes to the rescue of the majority to pass a rule governing debate. The committee vote is almost always along partisan lines.

But three Republicans refused to vote out the rule leaving it to all committee Democrats to carry the vote across the finish line.

The rule would allow separate votes on aid for Ukraine, aid for Israel, aid for Taiwan, and a package of issues that are supported by almost all Republicans. These include making 10% of Ukraine aid a loan, seizing Russian assets to pay for the war, and banning TikTok in the United States.

Despite Republican opposition to Ukraine aid and Democratic opposition to aid for Israel, the measures are all expected to pass easily. Getting them to the floor has proven to be the problem.

In an interview with Newsmax, Johnson gave his reasons for passing Ukraine aid.

“I’d rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys,” he said in an interview on Newsmax. “We don’t want to have boots on the ground, and we can prevent that by allowing them to hold Putin at bay.”

Johnson is refusing to include any U.S. border security provisions in the bill. This has enraged his conservative critics. Sending aid to Ukraine without securing the border will probably lead to a vote on Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's motion to vacate the speaker's chair. 

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Many House Republicans have indicated that they're sick and tired of the antics of Greene and her far-right colleagues. But with only a two-vote margin for error, it's likely that Johnson will fall short of a House majority if a vote is held.

If that happens, Democrats will have a decision to make. Do they supply the necessary votes to save Johnson's gavel? They're going to want something in return and whatever the price, it's likely too steep for most Republicans.

So if the motion to vacate hits the floor, it's likely that Johnson will be the latest casualty of the kamikaze caucus of Republicans.

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