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Getting to Classical Gas

March 4th, 2014 - 3:44 pm

The crisis in the Ukraine, though it has abated for now, has made policymakers rediscover the power of energy production, which has a direct bearing on American strategic strength and leverage on Russia. The more energy America produces, the stronger it is.  And the less it has to rely on pure military power.

Republican lawmakers, while stopping short of calling for U.S. military action against Russia, say the Obama administration has another weapon at its disposal that could help Ukraine — natural gas.

Top-ranking Republicans on Tuesday urged the administration to cut the red tape that has held up the approval process for natural gas exports to key U.S. allies. They argue that by helping Ukraine and European allies end their dependence on Russian energy, the U.S. could ultimately loosen Vladimir Putin’s grip on the region.

This is obvious — anyone could see it. Even I could see it. On March 1, I wrote, “removing American troops in Afghanistan from their dependency on Russian supply routes; drilling for energy, securing the borders; rebuilding the Armed Forces and stopping the hemorrhaging of the American substance to pay for political boondoggles are a good place to start. They will have a greater effect than démarches to the UN and they do not require firing a single shot.”

Why was this policy not readied earlier? Well for one thing the option was out of the administration’s political reach. The tradeoff for acquiring a potent weapon against potentially hostile actors was offending domestic environmental constituencies. And Russians don’t vote. Clean Technica explains Obama’s bind:

We were just noting a couple of big developments in the movement to curb natural gas fracking in US communities when along comes Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) with a push in the opposite direction: export more natural gas in order to bolster international sanctions against Russia for its aggression in Ukraine.

In other words, more fracking!

Obama up until just now was slamming the brakes on fracking. Now a comes a proposal to fight Russia with natural gas. This unfortunately means more fracking — a political nonstarter in the Obama administration. Deprived of such levers, they preferred to rely on “smart diplomacy” which basically assumes that foreign leaders were now suffused with enlightened “21st century thinking”. Unfortunately this does not appear to be the case with Putin.

As the New Republic points out, the administration grades foreign powers by which century they are imagined to occupy.

The administration loves to brand actions it doesn’t like as relics of the past. “It’s really nineteenth century behavior in the twenty-first century,” Kerry said of Putin’s Crimean gambit. A senior administration official who sounded like either National Security Advisor Susan Rice or Ben Rhodes told reporters on background, “What we see here are distinctly nineteenth- and twenty-first century decisions made by President Putin to address problems.”

Well, to start with, by definition Putin’s decisions are taking place in the twenty-first century. The administration here seems to be using the centuries like a teacher handing out a grade: twenty-first century is an A, twentieth century is a C, nineteenth century is an F.

Domestic opponents are graded by the decade. In president Obama’s debate with Mitt Romney he charged his opponent with having a foreign policy from the 1980s. “When it comes to our foreign policy, you seem to want to import the foreign policies of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s and the economic policies of the 1920s.”

Of course president Obama is always up-to-date so all modern leaders should think like him. But if the Ukraine crisis proved one thing it is that Putin’s complimentary fridge magnet calendar for 2014 has not yet arrived from the neighborhood businesses. Former ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, who left the post just last week to teach at Stanford University, told NBC News that Putin’s remarks implied Russia no longer has to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. “That’s disturbing. That’s an ominous threat that President Putin was making.”

That was so 19th century that he was disturbed. But he should have seen it coming — at least as contingency. This sudden insight into Putin’s character must reverberate throughout the entire edifice of Obama’s foreign policy.  The common keystone of Obama’s Syrian diplomacy, the nuclear deal with Iran, and even the administration’s need to supply American troops in Afghanistan is Russia. Since Russia is a linchpin in each process, these have all acquired a linkage to the Ukraine.

Obama needs a Syrian settlement, an Iran deal. He needs a supply route.  Putin can hold the president hostage over not one, but three issues.  Anyone planning on imposing sanctions on Russia must be prepared to encounter difficulties in Iran or Syria or the northern distribution route. The Ukrainian lull postpones but does not solve the problem: how to tame Putin. The Russian bear has retreated to its cave for now, whether to hibernate or re-emerge with renewed ferocity momentarily who can say? But the one knife that cuts through the Gordian knot in which the administration is ensnared is gas.

Whether or not Obama can nerve himself to take up the energy weapon and cut the knot is an interesting question. But one thing is clear, a foreign policy based on a foreign leader’s intent is not as sound as one based on an estimate of relative capabilities. Obama has trusted too much to the now shaky assumption that Putin was a “21st century” man. He must now increase his relative capability, just as Reagan would or be left empty-handed.

Whether he will or he won’t remains to be seen. Sometimes it takes time to figure out the classical gas tune, as the video below shows.


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Top Rated Comments   
I offer this for your consideration:

http://englishrussia.com/2014/03/03/largest-oil-refinery-in-europe-is-on-fire/

It is in Tatarstan, Russia. As in Tatars living there. This is where they were forcefully moved from the Crimea at Stalin's orders, and half of the Tatar population were killed. They do not like Russians at all. In the 1980's Tatars were allowed to move back to the Crimea, and about 10-12% of the population there is now Tatar, and now under Russian military occupation. Presumably, they are not happy with having the Russian 104th Airborne Regiment on their streets. And they are Muslims. Ivan has had .... difficulty ... with Muslims inside their country. And there is communications nowadays between the Crimea and Tatarstan.

Could be coincidence. Could be totally accidental and/or part of the increasingly common breakdowns due to lack of proper maintenance. Or it could be terrorism/sabotage. But if it is sabotage, this indicates some internal blowback and the possibility of kinetic untidiness inside Russia that will affect their actions. Confusion to the enemy!

2014, the Year of Consequences, and not only for us.

Subotai Bahadur
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
>>>The Russian bear has retreated to its cave for now, whether to hibernate or re-emerge with renewed ferocity momentarily who can say?<<<

The Russia Bear returning to its cave has not been confirmed. Putin says that there is "no immediate need to invade", but then again he denied those troops from the 76th Chernigov Guards Airborne Shock Division were in fact Russian. The “Guards” designation is a battle honor, like our Presidential Unit Citation. The “Shock” designation involves elite pathfinder status “somewhat” akin to our Rangers [Russian designations don't exactly match ours]. The 76th was the first all volunteer unit in the Russian army [no conscripts allowed]. Seeing the weapons carried, they are carrying small arms that are not standard Russian issue, but rather only issued to Shock and “Troops of Special Designation” [Spetsnaz]. The 76th, and especially its 104th Airborne Regiment which seems to involved, were the spearhead unit in the attacks in Chechnya and Ossetia.

He may still be denying it for that matter.

In the short term, an attack is possible at any moment. By now they have probably sorted out preparations, and are ready to go. Any real or fabricated incident with Ukrainian troops could provide a pretext. In the real world not inhabited by Buraq Hussein, his regime, and allied Leftists in and out of the media; you deal with a crisis by preparing for what the enemy is capable of doing, not by assuming that whatever you think he meant when he talked to you is his ironclad intent.

There is a deadline. I understand that the newly appointed pro-Russian Crimean government has moved the referendum [declared illegitimate by the Ukrainian government] on the Crimea's status from May to March 30. It could be moved to an earlier date. The outcome is as sure as the 100%+ votes in Philadelphia and Chicago for any Democrat. It will be for separation from Ukraine and either federation with Russia, or independence under Russian protection.

The problem is, the Crimea is not viable on its own. Its electricity and water come from Ukraine. So to render Fraternal Assistance to their Crimean clients, Russia will have to take a chunk of Ukraine. And the dance will be on.

>>>Obama up until just now was slamming the brakes on fracking. Now a comes a proposal to fight Russia with natural gas. This unfortunately means more fracking — a political nonstarter in the Obama administration.<<<

There is not only the political problem of going against everything he and his followers believe, it is also the goal: "a proposal to fight Russia with natural gas". Once again, judging intent instead of capabilities and history is a strategic error. There is not one bit of evidence anywhere in Obama's known life and career to indicate that there is any point where he would place the needs of this country over Russia or any other totalitarian country, let alone act to oppose them.

I would also note one other possibility/probability. China first started out making noises to the effect that it would side with Ukraine. Then it reversed itself. This was not a random event.

It is highly conceivable that Russia cut a deal with China. Something to watch for. Sometime in the near future, China will engage in fecal agitation along its periphery. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, or perhaps India will come under some form of attack. And Russia will back China's play. A "snatch and hold" operation on their territory seems likely, based on recent events. And the states along China's periphery will get as much help from the US as Ukraine and other Eastern European states will receive.

2014, the Year of Consequences.

Subotai Bahadur
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
At last, a thread about burritos.

The potential supply of LNG is vaster than most can imagine. Some months ago I attended a talk by Piotr Galitzine, the Chairman of TMK-IPSCO. He makes most of the pipe used in fracking. He mentioned that there are nodules of LNG laying on the ocean floor, apparently a lot of them. The problem is that when disturbed they tend to erupt and rise to the surface. The evil reputations of places like the Bermuda Triangle may come from ships or aircraft being caught by one of those rising methane bubbles. Once they break the surface all that is left is dead fish and a lifeless vessel. If we can get some sheath to trap the nodules so they can be safely extracted the supply of reasonably priced energy would change everything.

There are shovel ready jobs in Eastern Europe modernizing power generation and distribution systems.

We need creative and aggressive state governors and prosecutors researching links between de-industrialization advocates and hostile foreign powers. If the Canadian government attempted to extradite Maurice Strong back from China that could start a chain reaction. My guess is that rather than risk his talking the Chinese would arrange for something disagreeable to find its way into his breakfast.

At this point the most charitable view of Obama is that of a pregnant girl in the snow crying up at Putin and the Kremlin swells on the balcony. The less forgiving image has Barry as a painted tart up there with them.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (44)
All Comments   (44)
Sort: Newest Oldest Top Rated
Let's see: we've been "fighting" a "war" with people whose mindset has been described as Early Medieval, and yet these clowns in this administration are quibbling about a more recent two century span?
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Pipelines work in both directors [potentially].

The Gazprom lines do in fact all converge in western Ukraine, thence to Germany, France etc. BUT the lines from the Sahara come up through Italy France and Spain.

So no need to frack, no need for costly LNG, Europe can connect N African gas into the E European system. Sorry, Gazporm.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Yea sure, and be beholden to those countries that are inundating Europe with their excess population.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Don, youre going to be beholden to somebody unless you can use your farts to heat your house. Two sellers is a market.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
I offer this for your consideration:

http://englishrussia.com/2014/03/03/largest-oil-refinery-in-europe-is-on-fire/

It is in Tatarstan, Russia. As in Tatars living there. This is where they were forcefully moved from the Crimea at Stalin's orders, and half of the Tatar population were killed. They do not like Russians at all. In the 1980's Tatars were allowed to move back to the Crimea, and about 10-12% of the population there is now Tatar, and now under Russian military occupation. Presumably, they are not happy with having the Russian 104th Airborne Regiment on their streets. And they are Muslims. Ivan has had .... difficulty ... with Muslims inside their country. And there is communications nowadays between the Crimea and Tatarstan.

Could be coincidence. Could be totally accidental and/or part of the increasingly common breakdowns due to lack of proper maintenance. Or it could be terrorism/sabotage. But if it is sabotage, this indicates some internal blowback and the possibility of kinetic untidiness inside Russia that will affect their actions. Confusion to the enemy!

2014, the Year of Consequences, and not only for us.

Subotai Bahadur
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
they only are ˜300000, some have been elected in the Crimean parliament, I don't think that they are a problem, it is only for the foreign contenders
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
And you would be wrong, yet again...
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
and you have not the monopole to be right, yet again...
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Well, Whadyaknow!

David Brooks, of all people, has an article well worth reading about Putin's messianic mission for Mother Russia, and the philosophical underpinnings of Putin's vision for Russia's future. It's an ominous vision- that's what he means by "Putin can't stop!". In the New York Times, no less.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/opinion/brooks-putin-cant-stop.html?_r=0

38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
>>>The Russian bear has retreated to its cave for now, whether to hibernate or re-emerge with renewed ferocity momentarily who can say?<<<

The Russia Bear returning to its cave has not been confirmed. Putin says that there is "no immediate need to invade", but then again he denied those troops from the 76th Chernigov Guards Airborne Shock Division were in fact Russian. The “Guards” designation is a battle honor, like our Presidential Unit Citation. The “Shock” designation involves elite pathfinder status “somewhat” akin to our Rangers [Russian designations don't exactly match ours]. The 76th was the first all volunteer unit in the Russian army [no conscripts allowed]. Seeing the weapons carried, they are carrying small arms that are not standard Russian issue, but rather only issued to Shock and “Troops of Special Designation” [Spetsnaz]. The 76th, and especially its 104th Airborne Regiment which seems to involved, were the spearhead unit in the attacks in Chechnya and Ossetia.

He may still be denying it for that matter.

In the short term, an attack is possible at any moment. By now they have probably sorted out preparations, and are ready to go. Any real or fabricated incident with Ukrainian troops could provide a pretext. In the real world not inhabited by Buraq Hussein, his regime, and allied Leftists in and out of the media; you deal with a crisis by preparing for what the enemy is capable of doing, not by assuming that whatever you think he meant when he talked to you is his ironclad intent.

There is a deadline. I understand that the newly appointed pro-Russian Crimean government has moved the referendum [declared illegitimate by the Ukrainian government] on the Crimea's status from May to March 30. It could be moved to an earlier date. The outcome is as sure as the 100%+ votes in Philadelphia and Chicago for any Democrat. It will be for separation from Ukraine and either federation with Russia, or independence under Russian protection.

The problem is, the Crimea is not viable on its own. Its electricity and water come from Ukraine. So to render Fraternal Assistance to their Crimean clients, Russia will have to take a chunk of Ukraine. And the dance will be on.

>>>Obama up until just now was slamming the brakes on fracking. Now a comes a proposal to fight Russia with natural gas. This unfortunately means more fracking — a political nonstarter in the Obama administration.<<<

There is not only the political problem of going against everything he and his followers believe, it is also the goal: "a proposal to fight Russia with natural gas". Once again, judging intent instead of capabilities and history is a strategic error. There is not one bit of evidence anywhere in Obama's known life and career to indicate that there is any point where he would place the needs of this country over Russia or any other totalitarian country, let alone act to oppose them.

I would also note one other possibility/probability. China first started out making noises to the effect that it would side with Ukraine. Then it reversed itself. This was not a random event.

It is highly conceivable that Russia cut a deal with China. Something to watch for. Sometime in the near future, China will engage in fecal agitation along its periphery. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, or perhaps India will come under some form of attack. And Russia will back China's play. A "snatch and hold" operation on their territory seems likely, based on recent events. And the states along China's periphery will get as much help from the US as Ukraine and other Eastern European states will receive.

2014, the Year of Consequences.

Subotai Bahadur
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
I agree. Look on this as similar to securing a beach-head. The Russsian troops came with enough ammo to fight for a couple weeks, but now have to get their logistics supply line going. That could take months for something as big as invading big parts of the western half of the Ukraine. In the meantime, Putin can simply watch and sow seeds of discord there, and within the EU, at relatively no cost, until they wake up and realize they have no options.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
let's not forget all the digesters at every wastewater treatment plant and every landfill in existence also produce methane!

The environuts whine about CO2 screwing up the atmosphere when methane is the real culprit.

I recall an article about Shell Oil Company's refinery which builds organic strings from methane producing diesel and gasoline.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_to_liquids

38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Pebble bed reactors, "mini" fission reactors, thorium reactors, in the ground coal to gas conversion, and a host of other means and methods stalled and stopped by the deft foot of the various depts and agencies of the commies in the executive branch.
Are space program has also been crippled by Obozo.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Marie Claude
the US shales gas, it's just a bubble
.........................
what is not well understood is that since the beginning of the oil age 150 years ago in western Pennsylvania-- less than 10% of the oil in the ground has been extracted. That was the easy oil. It usually gathered under salt domes from oil in massive multilayered lower formations. Those lower formations were never accessible until now. The new technology will enable first the USA and then the rest of the world to access only another 10-20% of the oil in the ground--at least with current technology. But that effectively means that the addressable oil in the ground is now double or triple the amount of oil that is currently in the ground plus all the oil that has ever been extracted in the last 150 years. Currently the IEA projects that US oil production will peak and then plateau at the end of 2015 at about 9.5 million barrels@day or about the peak of US oil production in 1970. I think they're correct in as far as their estimates for the eagle ford and baaken formations are concerned. They only have about two more years of parabolic growth before their growth curves begin to flatten out. However, the Permian basin in west texas has barely begun to shift over from vertical drilling to horizontal drilling. The drillers there are only starting to adapt the even more advanced practices of drillers in the baaken. By the end of 2015 however, Permian basin driller will have shifted into production phase horizontal drilling. At that point their production will go up by nearly 1 million barrels@ day for 3-5 years. Why do I say this. The permian basin has about 10 fields the size of baaken and eagle ford stacked one on top of the other. That oil field in the Permian basin of west texas is second in size in the world only to the world's largest oil field --the Saudis Gwadar field.

There are of course enormous natural gas fields in the USA Russia China Argentina. And smaller ones around the world including a pretty big formation that runs from north of Paris to Hamburg.

The natural gas & oil boom is not a bubble. However, The fracking revolution is one of two major revolutions in just the last five years. The second one is the collapse of computers down to hand held telephone size. so that now the whole world owns them. The pace of innovation appears to be accelerating. We are due for a major energy revolution or two. Two farily predictable ones are 3dprinting which collapse the shipment of finished products around the world--which will cut in the demand for transportation fuel. The second fairly predictable energy revolution will come with lftr thorium reactors which will collapse the cost of electricity to 1/4-1/10th current electricity costs. Judging by the flow of news I've seen on this sometime in the next two years -- a very public competition will break out among several players around the world including the USA and China but also several European companies/countries...as well as Canada Australia India, Japan and Russia. Some of these latter will be first tier players.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
I read sometime ago that the benefits are benin since transforming the frackings is expensive and need some huge infrastructures
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Huge deposits of shale oil and shale gas exist throughout the world, including in France and Argentina. The difference between France and Argentina on the one hand and the United States on the other is desperation. Fracking involves pumping detergent into the ground and oil companies have been known to spill fracking fluid. Oil workers have long shifts, so they can get tired, and tired people have been known on occasion to make mistakes. France has made a strategic decision to buy Russian natural gas rather than risk polluting their water supplies by using fracking fluid when the drill for oil and gas – it's their decision, and I'm not about to criticize it.

Some countries prefer to export their pollution while other countries are willing to take a risk because they need the jobs. Fracking is not a panacea, and it does not fundamentally change the nature of petroleum economics – all it does is shift the location of political controversy fueled by the energy industry. Fracking will happen wherever and whenever doing it is profitable and the local population is sufficiently desperate for employment – although a belief that fracking is a bubble is quite understandable, it is also wishful thinking.

That said, I will believe that Mr. Fernandez seriously supports fracking when he comes out in favor of fracking in the Philippines so that the Philippines can export oil and natural gas to China and Japan.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
tell us how much russian gas France buys? in the EU it's the lowest percentage, our gas comes mainly from Sahara
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
It doesn't appear that you can fix stupid.
This is what happens when no one is in charge. Check out this article:
Why is the US helping China look for oil in the South China Sea?
http://qz.com/170916/why-is-the-us-helping-china-look-for-oil-in-the-south-china-sea/
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
hmm, it appears the Chinese oil companies are working deals with some of the members of ASEAN.
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea will not hold back oil exploration
http://www.newstatesman.com/business/2013/10/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea-will-not-hold-back-oil-exploration
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
China views India as a peer rival.
India warned against exploring oil in disputed South China Sea
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/India-warned-against-exploring-oil-in-disputed-South-China-Sea/articleshow/30701439.cms
China views viet nam as a country they can step on without much trouble.
PetroVietnam opposes China's oil exploration plan in Vietnam waters
Wednesday, June 27, 2012 19:00
http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/petrovietnam-opposes-chinas-oil-exploration-plan-in-vietnam-waters-6662.html
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
The Chinese are said to have the largest shale gas reserves in the world under their land --mostly in north china. There are already some western companies partnering with them to start drilling. But they're in the early stages. imho it will be five years before they start to produce there in volume. Its likely that the tensions in the south china sea will stall exploration there for sometime. Hard to say.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
The Philippines imports most of its oil. http://business.inquirer.net/126791/ph-to-remain-heavily-dependent-on-oil-imports-adb

and its food too. Any oil, fracked or not, is probably going to be consumed domestically. The food is a little bit more worrisome. Actually the Islands would starve and come to a half in about a month if China mined the port of Manila and the oil terminals in Batangas.

38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
The advances in 3D printing do seem like they will lead to a revolution in manufacturing but you still need the energy and raw materials to make a given product. That's why I believe manufacturing will shift away from cheap labor countries to resource rich countries in the coming years. This in turn will cause great disruptions in the world. Wars will be fought over resources. Will countries that are powerful but resource poor today be willing to passively fade away into economic basket cases? I doubt it.

The roller coaster occasionally seems to come to a halt, but that doesn't mean the ride is over. The scariest times are yet to come.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
WASHINGTON — The budget President Obama unveiled Tuesday would raise more than $1 trillion over 10 years through changes in the tax code by closing loopholes, raising some taxes and cracking down on enforcement.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/03/04/obamas-budget-raises-tax-revenue-by-1-trillion/6020357/
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
This more of a campaign statement than a budget. Its not going to pass the house. US companies currently have about 1 trillion dollars parked overseas because US tax rates currently discourage them from repatriating dollars earned overseas. The pubbies plan would be to reduce tax rates to the point where it made sense for the US multinationals to repatriate their dollars and invest them at home. Likely they'll do something like that if they get majorities in the senate in the fall and keep the house. Likely too Obama would veto the bill. Its not likely that the pubbies get super majorities in the senate in the fall.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
If Republicans manage to gain a majority in Senate and hold House, impeach the Marxist! I can dream, can't I?

That proposed budget is typical Dem tax and spend. Any rise in taxes should only be used to pay down national debt.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
Also clear, a foreign policy based on what American "leaders" think a foreign leader should do is not as sound as one based on an estimate of what he thinks he should do. The approval of "history" and/or the Harvard faculty seems to be nowhere near as important to real world politicians as does what they deem to be in their national interest. Go figure.
38 weeks ago
38 weeks ago Link To Comment
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