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Belmont Club

Deep Breathely

November 5th, 2012 - 4:23 pm

Stephanie Cutter has a message for President Obama’s supporters. Even if it looks like Obama is losing, they have a stash of early votes that are going to turn the tide.

In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney. … “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.” …

“So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”

I’ve been watching the Strawpoll widget since the vote totals were in the low hundreds. The basic ratio stayed at 54:46 for about two days. Then as more votes came in the last 36 hours it went 55:45. It is moving to 56:44. That is an incredibly high ratio which probably does not represent the true population with perfect accuracy. After all the Strawpoll will measure only those with access to the Internet and in particular, those who come upon it in Facebook. (Image taken on Nov 5, 2012 @ 16:15 PST)

My guess is that the true difference is closer than the 56.6 to 43.4 ratio is showed at the time of the screencap. It’s one data point out of the many that are out there. However, what I do think what we are seeing — what we must see by definition — is people making up their minds as the election date comes closer. That means new data is eventuating all the time as the time to cast a ballot, one way or the other, comes near.

The ratio changes as people who haven’t made up their minds make them up. This process will go on all the way up to the moment when the closing bell rings.

What Cutter is doing — apart from preparing the public mind for strange additions to the vote totals — is preventing any perception of a Romney momentum from dispiriting her troops. Up until the polls close there will be individuals who either have not voted or have not made up their minds.  The Obama campaign is fighting for inches. That’s what they think this may come down to.

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