The Design Margin
When storms disrupt utilities as they have done in New York City it is always good to have a few things in stock. Some canned goods in the cupboard. Maybe the hated Spam and baked beans. A stock of ordinary candles and matches are in order as are 25 gallons or so of drinking water. A full bathtub of water for flushing the toilet in case the water pressure fails would be good. And one or more flashlights, preferably with some spare batteries.
There are a few tips and tricks in their use that may prove useful. One, never use your flashlight for extended illumination. The candles serve that purpose. To keep from burning your house down ground the candles in the bottom of shallow glasses (don’t use plastic) so that you can carry them around without drippings falling on your hand.
Stay put and learn to sleep. Rediscover why our ancestors basically shut down with the dark. You can’t do much until the sun rises again.
If you have to venture out into the flooded streets remember that it is better to get partially wet than to try to stay completely dry. One technique is to wear shorts and hiking sandals or tennis shoes and simply wade in the water. The shoes are there to keep your feet from injury. As long as your upper body is dry and warm you can go long distances — in the dark if need be with your trusty flashlight. Remember that umbrellas are completely useless in high winds.
Plastic bags are your friend because they keep cell phones and and your wallet dry. Put your electronics in the bags whenever you venture out. Avoid walking abroad if you can until the natural calamity blows over.
But even with the best reasonable preparation, how long can you survive?
Storms are a good time to remember how slender is the margin on which civilization is built. Today’s miraculous cities are a going concern. Once they stop working they die. Millions of people are literally totally dependent on the grid and can survive outside it only for brief periods. Most households could not subsist for more than a month without steady deliveries of food, the refrigeration to preserve it and the continuous supply of potable water.
Modern urban civilization is in many respects like a ship of artificial order floating in an ocean of natural entropy. That order is enforced by the availability of energy. Once the energy that keeps entropy from entering its hull fails then disorder begins to flood like water through its arteries and channels like an inrushing flood. The virtual construct that is the 21st century mega-city begins to sink; not just gradually but quickly, terribly and catastrophically.
But unlike the ocean, which constantly reminds seafarers of its omnipresent menace, entropy does not manifest itself so clearly. It is scarcely visible when things ‘work’. We only notice it when things stop working. Therefore modern civilized man often forgets the surrounding entropy exists.
He also forgets what keeps it at bay.
Energy, not only of the electrical kind, but of the sort that motivates human society, keeps things going. Energy is constantly pumping chaos out of the hull of civilization. Once it is exhausted then the ship goes dark and begins to settle into the deeps. In recent years it has become fashionable to accuse the West of having an excessive design margin.
A number of pundits have written that we have storms because we have offended the climate gods. In our search for energy we have have incurred the wrath of Climate Change and its co-deity Global Warming. But suppose that in reality humanity has always been dependent on the vagaries of nature. Suppose that in the past asteroids have fallen from the skies, volcanoes have erupted which very nearly wiped all life on earth; that storms have been part of the story of mankind from time immemorial. If so then the pundits have it backwards. Nature is not something to be appeased, but to be mastered to some degree. Therefore energy has not brought down the wrath of the gods. Rather energy has allowed us to get this far.
And the question is: do we want to keep civilization? Because don’t have to. We can try to find our way back, perhaps to the 19th century; or the 12th, the 8th or perhaps before history itself? Let us find out how far back we have to go before we appease nature perhaps only to rediscover what our ancestors learned: that no number of virgins cast into a volcano’s glowing pit will keep it from erupting.
The reason Third World societies can do with less was because they were simpler. But they are simpler no longer. Today the organization, logistics and order required to keep New York, Tokyo, Shanghai or Hong Kong in existence is is mind-boggling. Because modern urban society is so dependent “just enough” is never enough.” ‘Just enough’ is simply a catastrophe waiting to happen.
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In general, I now strongly recommend LED lights over candles.
And of course a nice bag of reasonably fresh batteries, which will cost more but last a lot longer with LEDs than an equivalent mass of candles.
… and I *wish* that LED light manufacturers would much more often design around D-cells for just such purposes. They don’t.
Also several butane lighters.
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also, if you need drugs, try to keep a 30-day supply on hand.
We are like sharks, if we are not moving forward then we suffocate and sink. Our cities also.
If the electricity really failed would people learn to read and think again? Is there some natural limit to human information processing speed that means that receiving more information faster overloads the system and decreases the ability to process and think? Most people can handle complexity for short periods. Geniuses may for slightly longer. No one can think after constant bombardment by inanities. That may be why daytime television is an efficient system for lowering the IQ of women.
I have found the solar powered yard lights very useful. During the last outage they gave us light for 6 or so hours…don’t need to stay up all night any way. Used a cardboard box with holes punched in bottom to accept the ground spike, set them on the porch each morning.
Cheap too…
Allowed more parsimous use of flashlights and batteries.
ta
“One, never use your flashlight for extended illumination.”
We have had a couple of multi day outages in the past couple of years. I have found that the new generation of LED flashlights is very bright and can be used for extended periods.
Josh should check out Coleman’s LED lanterns that use 4 D cells.
I bought this one:
http://www.coleman.com/product/cpxtrade-6-easy-hanging-led-lantern/2000006663?contextCategory=1080#.UI9NDGfrtP8
There are are others. Coleman also makes a D cell LED Flashlight:
http://www.coleman.com/product/2d-led-flashlight/2000003681?contextCategory=1185#.UI9NhmfrtP8
They claim 63 hours of operation as compared to 18 hours for the 2AA model.
And Mag has a line of D-cell flash lights:
http://www.maglite.com/D_Cell_LED.asp
Sadly, they do not yet make a 6 D cell LED flashlight. The 6 cell format is a favorite of cops, who find it extremely useful in dealing with recalcitrant arrestees:-)
A kerosene heater came in handy during 11 days without power due to an early October snow storm in the Midwest.
ws @ 4: Josh should check out Coleman’s LED lanterns that use 4 D cells.
Outstanding, I will probably pick up both! These have to be fairly new. Thanks!
I picked up a very early D-cell LED flashlight made by some no-name company, it used eleven first-generation white LEDs, not very bright but was good for days. Even gave some out as gifts.
Target also has a D-cell emergency/camp light, might be previous generation Coleman, I picked up about a dozen previous generation AA-cell versions, at least they used four AA-cells and were good for a couple of nights.
My experience with the Mag products is that they are fiercely expensive for what you get.
A design margin is present in an electoral process that requires only pencils and ballot papers to record your vote and pairs of people with one member from each political party to count them. Oil lamps provide hours of light to cook and read by and even to count votes by.
As Say Uncle once said, “If you’re prepared for the zombie apocalypse, a hurricane is just another storm.”
Drudge is linking an article claiming twitter is being used to coordinate looting raids. After Katrina firefighters needed escort by motorized infantry. America’s design margin is slimming in a great many areas. Be prepared my friends.
Aimpoint makes a holographic weapon sight that can be left on for 100,000hrs, no candle can last that long. Food, shelter, water, fire and the ability to defend it.
Perhaps there is a different problem. I was in New York the last time weather hysteria hit.
The subway was shut down, shops were boarded up and we were told to put large quantities of organic vegetables in the cupboard just in case. After some rainy gusts, nothing happened and life went on.
We live in a state of permanent fear. Children are kept out of the sun for fear of melanoma until they suffer from vitamin D deficiency and become fat watching TV.. Workplaces are closed in case they may be dangerous. Asbestos stalks the land, and radiation threatens us all.
Perhaps what we really should fear is fear itsef.
After several extended power outages in recent years, we’ve learned a few things. Yes, light is critical: flashlights, candlelight, gas lamps, fire light. Moon light.
You go to bed early to conserve resources and because you’re exhausted. It takes a great deal of energy to acquire, generate and sustain light and food and heat even for limited time periods. Nights are quiet and dark because without power, street lights are gone and the drone of a thousand appliances plugged into the grid has been stilled.
Cash is king. When the power is out, credit and debit cards don’t work. Banks and ATMs are closed, and stores can’t process electronic transfers. Gas pumps have to be worked manually, a tricky business. Lines form. Critical supplies and resources disappear in the first few days. A fully charged cell phone is worthless, because local towers are down.
Energy is civilization and comfort. Light, warmth and a cup of hot coffee are pure luxuries.
Unless you are in poor health, you don’t need food for a couple of weeks (lesson learned in SERE school many years ago – we didn’t eat for a week).
Water is the most important commodity for survival – water you can drink.
Beyond that, I’d say the comments section has creative ideas for lighting. I’d also suggest firearms and a few magazines of ammunition.
For entertainment, the new Kindle White has long lasting batteries and is self illuminating, so while you’re waiting for civilization to get going again, you don’t have to be bored sick.
W said “Energy, not only of the electrical kind, but of the sort that motivates human society, keeps things going. Energy is constantly pumping chaos out of the hull of civilization. Once it is exhausted then the ship goes dark and begins to settle into the deeps. In recent years it has become fashionable to accuse the West of having an excessive design margin.”
Without optimism, without courage, without honesty, without creativity, it is unlikely our civilization can endure.
Regarding LED’s, I agree about the Coleman and also one by Ray-o-vac. Regarding medications, I highly recommend renewing all essential medications one or two days early so that in less than two years you can accumulate a 30 day cushion. Lots of things can interrupt the supply chain for four weeks.
Everyone should be prepared for a seven day interruption and work their way to a 30 day safety supply over a two to three year time frame. Just remember to rotate your stocks.
We always carry survival bag, sleeping bag, heavy clothing, bug out bag in our vehicles up here. I was up in Fairbanks overnight last night on business, and kept an extra 5 gallons of gas in the back for good luck charm. Always plan for being somewhere stuck for a week, and you will probably be ok. Sometimes you may have to walk home, and I will be damned if I have to stay in a shelter with a bunch of unprepared people.
One of the advantages of taking up backpacking, hunting, or some other Boy Scout-esque hobby is that you naturally have a lot of useful “design margin” gear around the house. Water purification gear, portable stoves, stick stoves, flashlights, first aid kits…
But unlike the ocean, which constantly reminds seafarers of its omnipresent menace, entropy does not manifest itself so clearly.
I disagree slightly. I think entropy reminds us plenty often (this storm for instance. Benghazi. Detroit). The difference is in our shipmates.
It’s a hardy lot who go to sea, and they generally won’t tolerate someone who pays no mind to the power of the ocean. If you constantly do stupid things that tempt fate and jeapordize your shipmates, you’ll find yourself left ashore pretty quickly.
But on the ship of Civilization, we don’t do castaways any more. We keep everyone on board (where would we maroon them?) no matter how ignorant of the dangers around us they are. No matter how many holes they drill in the hull, no matter how many hatches they unbatten in the middle of the storm, no matter how many sails they willfully shred or provisions they waste, spoil or steal.
Living on the left coast, one should always be prepared for “The Big One” (earthquake). We have had several kerosene lamps for years. (You know, the ones you see in old movies). They work great, and one in strategic parts of the house give off enough light to navigate safely. A battery portable radio kept us informed during the last big power outage that took out part of Southern California and Arizona.
We try and keep ten gallons of drinking water, plus you have the forty gallon water heater. The there is enough food to last for several days. We also have a clean plastic trash can loaded with “the earthquake stuff”. Extra blankets, tent, tools, cooking utensils, coleman stove, and first aid supplies. We just bought a small 3500Watt generator which came in handy during the last outage. We were able to use the microwave to heat food, and keep the refrigerator cold.
We still have our “land line” from the telephone company, and old phones that don’t require electricity to function. During that last big power outage, the phones worked fine. The phone company has their own generator that keeps their equipment working.
Needless to say, at least five gallons of gasoline and a gallon or two of kerosene, plus keeping the tanks full in the cars is helpful.
and if you have no Coleman, there’s the Dynamo powered lamp for emergency
As I watched the current earnings season unfold, I noticed that the recurring theme seemes to be that companies were posting profits on the bottom line but missing their revenues estimates on the top line. The only conclusion to be drawn is that American firms have gone catabolic. “They’re burning through their design margins,” I remember thinking to myself. Sacrificing their stored up low-entropy to the gods of the quarterly reports, who demand a profit at any cost.
I can see it in my own place of business. There is no design margin left. I work as a night crew grocery stocker in an affiliate chain owned by Kroger. The implementation of Kroger’s brainchild, “KEY Retailing,” has ruined our company. For those who are unfamiliar with it, K-R can be thought of as some hideous combination of six-sigma quality control done on the cheap and appied to human beings, and the centralized planning of a Communist committee. Every detail about every aspect of the grocery business has been quantified and turned over to the machines for calculation, with the intent being to maximize efficiency. The result is the thorough Mickey-Mousification of the workplace. We are continuously placed under the microscope of K-R protocols, but we know we have to break the rules to get anything done. Meanwhile, the inhuman standards of performance have to be met.
I could go on and on with examples and analysis (and someday I will have to, because the story needs to be told) but I will spare BC readers the agony of a Matt-length post tonight. The point is that we all work our tails off, we’re all miserable, and the company is still barely making money, due in part to the negative macro-environment but predominately to mismanagement. I’ve seen the same policies hollow out and take down one of our competitors after another, and now the poison has finally reached us. It makes me afraid sometimes, but all I can do right now is hang on.
I can’t find the Amazon link right now, however I have some LED lights in the shape of a lantern (360 degree light), but with little built in generators with cranks. A minute of cranking gives about 2 hours of light.
14. JMH
But on the ship of Civilization, we don’t do castaways any more. We keep everyone on board (where would we maroon them?) no matter how ignorant of the dangers around us they are.
A timely metaphor, given the two candidates for the Darwin Award who decided to go kayaking in Long Island Sound as Sandy approached:
“Rescuers plucked one kayaker out of the roiling waters of Long Island Sound, but another remained missing and rescue workers were forced to call off the search as Hurricane Sandy bore down on the East Coast.
The kayakers, who were not wearing life jackets, took their ill-advised outing Sunday night, and the search and rescue operation diverted Connecticut emergency crews just as they braced for what could be a 100-year storm.”
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012/10/29/connecticut-kayaker-lost-in-rising-waters-long-island-sound/
Talk about using up one’s design margin. And I can imagine the first responders had some choice words for this little Narrenschiff.
Apropos of LED flashlights: I bought one on Thursday while picking up groceries etc. to prepare for Sandy. I’m very pleased with it, particularly the easy-grip rubber coating on the outside. Beats the old plastic or metal flashlight cases that could get very slippery in heavy rain.
12. batman
Been following your advice for the past year (about filling prescriptions early in order to build up a month’s supply). I have only one prescription med, but just the same it’s good to have an extra supply on hand.
And a footnote to Wretchard’s advice about candles: jar candles work very well in terms of shedding light; won’t drip or set fire to curious furry pets; and the larger sizes will burn for 50 to 70 hours.
Wonderful post. Thanks Richard:
“Modern urban civilization is in many respects like a ship of artificial order floating in an ocean of natural entropy.”
Oil lanterns, as opposed to lamps, are what you want. Cold-blast lanterns are best for indoors because they smell less and throw a bit more light than hot-blast and a lot more than dead flame, at the cost of a little bit less burn time. If you need outdoor light hot blast will work well and burn a bit longer.
You can use kerosene in these but your best bet is a product called Kleen-heat that can be purchased from Lehmans and other sources. Less odor.
Another good thing to have is some sort of water microfilter. Katadyn is one brand that I own and works well. With little effort you can turn any source of fresh water that is chemical free into drinkable water, it removes the biload extremely well.
How decivilized was Beirut after the various wars there? How decivlized was Belgrade? How decivilized is Grozny? Are plenty of cities now and in the recent past that have had long interruptions in the supply of civilized goods and services?
I’ve gone through a hurricane (cat4) that knocked out power to much of our island for close to a year; as well as several others that did so for two to three months.
I have to say I love the new LED lights but have opted to keep all my battery operated devices (lasers, radios, lights…) running off rechargeable AA (and the odd Cr123) batteries to ease the logistical load and recharging tasks; larger batteries require much longer charge times. However I’ve found that oil and kerosene type lamps are king for longer term sustainability and storage of energy/fuel…And you can generally fix them when they break.
FWIW, here is my shortish list of hurricane/zombie preps.
….
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Long term disaster prep is pretty much a “One is none and two is one” affair. Any [durable] thing that saves time and reduce your work load is of value.
One of the most underrated media productions that should be mandatory instruction in our institutions of education -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgOp-nz3lHg
the point you raise starts at 3:45
I’ve got a six month supply of my diabetes meds, just in case I lose my job and my health insurance.
I’ve been wanting to lay in a couple of tons of coal at the house just in case the power goes out in the winter. Doesn’t rot like wood and lasts a lot longer. Can’t find a source, though.
A car battery and a couple 12v bulbs light up a room like incandescents. Lasts for days too.
I’ve got a small radio with hand-crank & solar cell power sources. It also has an LED flashlight built-in, and a plug-in to be able to charge cell phones through a USB power cable. Nice.
Regarding prescription medication – I started taking my prescription and faxing a copy to a Canadian website that fills my order. Then, that same day I take my prescription to my local Target and fill my order the normal way.
I have a 2 year supply of medication. Also, ordered some very good antibiotics from Vietnam. You never know…
The NY Times today has and editorial that says Big Storm = Big Government. They assert you need Big Government to handle big storms.
But in fact, Big Storms are one of the main reasons you DON’T do Obamacare, and diversity programs, and lawsuit craziness, and welfare programs and gun control and just about every other cherished Leftist concept. You need the effort associated with those wastes of resources to go into the ability to handle such disasters. You also need people to realize that there is real world out there, and money from a “Obama’s stash” or EBT cards will do no good when things break down.
I just finished a new chore I have had to adopt. I drove about 18 miles away to buy some auto fuel that does not contain ethanol. My airplane really does not like ethanol, and it also does not appreciate the large amount of lead in the currently available avgas. Time was, I could pick up a can of fuel on the way to the airport, but now that the government has mandated that ethanol be included I can no longer do that. Other equipment that does not like ethanol include my lawnmower and emergency power generator, so I run them on the fuel I drain out of my airplane each time I fly as part of the preflight inspection.
I buy that non-ethanol fuel and put it in plastic gas cans made by the Blitz company, the largest US maker of such containers. Or rather, they were. They are out of business now. Some guy poured fuel from one of their cans on a fire and got badly burned as a result. When he won that lawsuit 7 lawyers filed over 40 lawsuits, and those actions, over 10 times the number of lawsuits typically filed against the company in a year, ran them out of business.
So Big Government requires that most gasoline sold to be that which I can’t use to help recover from a disaster and also enables absurd lawsuits that prevent me from buying the cans I need to go buy the fuel I can use. Yep, Big Government is the Answer to disasters, especially creating them.
I have several of those smaller hand-cranked flashlights, too. Always been a fan of LED flashlights (waiting for LED bulbs to get practical – supposed to be like right about now, now that you mention it! need a trip down to Home Depot and see wassup).
Looking like Lower Manhattan was pretty hard-hit after all, subways flooded. The storm was apparently less than worst fears – except for the storm surge on top of the high tide, that has apparently met all warnings.
Matt @ 17
The university system in America has the same mechanized inhuman standards. Administrators are trying to comply with conflicting and crazy requirements from government and quasi-governmental agencies.
Time is wasted on the pretense of compliance instead of teaching. Administrators have to commit fraud to maintain appearances.
I pointed this out and was fired. I was told I was “hurting moral.”
I won’t even get into the many other causes of the decline of academia.
On the bright side I am now building an alternative teaching network with home school families who share similar beliefs and values.
17 @Matt
I used to work at a large business purchased by Washington DC holding company Danaher. They implemented their infamous “Danaher Business System”, which sounds very similar to the KR system you describe (I’m guessing they have common lineage in the Toyota Production System). They also produced similar results: a sea of paper charts, spreadsheets, procedures, status indicators, kaizen events, and rock-bottom morale. It seemed that the unstated goal was to make the whole manufacturing process so parameterized and procedure-oriented that a trained monkey could be then used to replace you, once they squeezed all of the hard-won knowledge and wisdom of your job out of you.
OT- Apologies
Langley@31,
would you email me your addy? I’d like to send you some info that will be helpful in meeting your goals.
geoffgo12@hotmail.com
I appreciate the real theme of the article, but I will add some practical advice:
one of the REALLY difficult things to find in case of long term problems is SALT.
Always stock a lot of it.
As in ancient times, you will be able to use it as money, more precious than gold, because without salt people simply die.
And ammo of course.
Sorry for the OT, but 31 and 33 piqued my interest. If any of you Belmonters have homeschooling resources that you would be willing to share in public, I would love to hear about it.
M @ 17: For those who are unfamiliar with it, K-R can be thought of as some hideous combination of six-sigma quality control done on the cheap and appied to human beings, and the centralized planning of a Communist committee.
DB @ 32: They also produced similar results: a sea of paper charts, spreadsheets, procedures, status indicators, kaizen events, and rock-bottom morale.
Hey, I’d love to see these up-close. The dysfunction of modern American business management/culture is one of my favorite topics.
On the one hand, the capabilities we now have to model the entire supply chain is terrific. On the other hand, these systems have always tended to become “Nazi-Ware” that annoys rather than informs. I believe in the technology, and am appalled at the actual efforts, like giving a chain saw to a monkey. This is in itself further evidence of the failure of the management culture – they can’t build, they can’t judge, they put their faith in technology and frankly welcome the chaos that results, because MANY management types think management is fighting fires, and will happily engage in arson so they can be seen as crack firefighters.
You can see this in design margin terms, but for me it’s more of a social and psychological issue, “corporate anthropology”.
But in fact, Big Storms are one of the main reasons you DON’T do Obamacare, and diversity programs, and lawsuit craziness, and welfare programs and gun control and just about every other cherished Leftist concept. You need the effort associated with those wastes of resources to go into the ability to handle such disasters. You also need people to realize that there is real world out there, and money from a “Obama’s stash” or EBT cards will do no good when things break down.
I think I told this story after some previous storm, but back in 1964, the great Alaskan Earthquake sent a tidal wave south along the Pacific coast. It hit a small town in northern California named Crescent City. The off-shore geography basically makes the town a tsunami magnet, as an underwater ridge coupled with a submerged creek bed grab passing tsunamis and focus them right onto the town. Four waves hit that night, starting around midnight. The last one was about 23 feet tall. Several people were killed and downtown was demolished.
The governor happened to be in the area for some PR stunt or other, and made a quick trip to visit the scene. The first wave hit at midnight. The Governor got there at 9:30 am and was nearly run over by a (private citizen’s) bulldozer that was already at work cleaning up debris.
Contrast that with today’s government-managed handling of disasterss where it takes months to even begin.
On the subject of flashlights, an LED headlamp (strap that holds it to your forehead) is a very nice thing to have if you have to do any work in the dark. Eliminates the need for a helper to hold the light for you and aim it at the wrong spot…
36 @Josh
I can no longer provide any first-hand information, as I haven’t been employed there in a few years. You might try searching “Danaher Business System”, but last time I checked, most of the results returned were puff pieces from the people who liked the bottom-line results from said system, but who didn’t care one way or the other about the long-term rot it instilled in the corporate culture. (See Matt’s first paragraph).
In my view, the whole of American management style can be summed up in two words: cargo cult. The Toyota Production System is a good example. Hey, Toyota kicks all kinds of ass, so let’s copy their TPS and we’ll be just as good! While completely ignoring the other, softer aspects of their success such as their corporate and national culture. Not to mention, they don’t really copy TPS. They change it to fit their own prejudices, which in my view, negates most of the potential benefits.
When we first changed over to DBS, we had some consultant come in who was called a Black Belt (*snort*) to be the change agent. I won’t elaborate on the details, except for to quote the old line about consultants: If you’re not a part of the solution, there’s good money to be made in prolonging the problem.
Funny thing is that the old greybeards at the company said that about every 5 years, they would switch from a highly-regimented production system to a more loose version, and vice-versa. Management always had to be pushing a “new solution to our problems!”
Wretchard and others mentioned the importance of water for survival. For years, I heard the rule-of-thumb of 1 gallon per person per day but thought it was too much. The validity of that rule was demonstrated to me after my son’s Boy Scout troop bungled a campsite location that had inadequate water. We had to assign scouts to acquire water from a distant site and haul it to our site in 5 gallon containers (water is heavy). I kept track on how much water was being consumed. To my considerable surprise it was 1 gallon per person per day.
I took that lesson to heart and bought four glass 5 gallon bottles and filled them as earthquake insurance and in addition I have two 5 gallon plastic containers full of water in the shed. Our hot water tank can hold 30 gallons but people say that water from a hot water tank is not adequate as an emergency water supply (don’t know why). I could use that water to flush a toilet or wash if it proved undrinkable. I also have many cans of spaghetti, etc. along with MREs as emergency food. How long will canned food keep? I assume the expiration date on the can is mainly for protection against litigation and only weakly correlated to how long the food can actually last.
Matt @ 17 said:
“The point is that we all work our tails off, we’re all miserable, and the company is still barely making money, due in part to the negative macro-environment but predominately to mismanagement. I’ve seen the same policies hollow out and take down one of our competitors after another, and now the poison has finally reached us. ”
My father worked in the grocery industry and often talked about the problems of his profession. He retired long ago but it was my impression that the grocery industry had almost no margin. Father mentioned that many customers (house wives) were very sophisticated consumers and would shop at many stores stores in one day looking for different “specials” to go for bottom dollar. Father’s task as a merchant was to draw in the customer with a loss leader that they needed to buy, e.g. milk. Typically as the customer was approaching the check out line, the store was selling below wholesale by a few dollars. Then at the last minute the housewife’s kid would see a toy, or some candy or she would see some stupid tabloid magazine. That last minute purchase was all that kept the grocery store profitable.
dw @ 38: Funny thing is that the old greybeards at the company said that about every 5 years, they would switch from a highly-regimented production system to a more loose version, and vice-versa.
A lot of corporate organizations seem to follow that cyclical pattern, or at least used to – I have an impression that even that has broken down, globalization has eaten it.
egg @ 39: it was my impression that the grocery industry had almost no margin
That’s a myth they have propagated for unknown decades. I worked for about a year for Ralphs markets (now a peon in the Kroger empire), didn’t have a clear view of all costs but my impression was their gross margin is 50% just like every other retail business. It really couldn’t be otherwise. Walmart and Target aren’t getting into groceries for the low margins.
There are three things you need to survive a natural disaster: water, food and weapons. Most people people understand the first two but not the real reason for the third. You don’t have weapons solely for self defense. They are a means of acquiring food. There are lots of critters that I can eat because unlike most of my neighbors I can shoot them. I recommend that every household have a handgun, a 22 rifle, a high powered rifle and a shotgun.
Josh @ 40 said:
“I worked for about a year for Ralphs markets (now a peon in the Kroger empire), didn’t have a clear view of all costs but my impression was their gross margin is 50% just like every other retail business. It really couldn’t be otherwise. Walmart and Target aren’t getting into groceries for the low margins.”
My dad also worked for Ralphs a zillion years ago when the Ralphs family still owned the company (he was their non-foods buyer). What Father told me was Ralphs was selling their major grocery items, e.g. milk, flour, butter, etc. at or below wholesale cost as loss leaders. Father said that Ralphs made almost all of their margin from non-foods that they sold at enormous mark-up. One of Father’s standard operating procedures was to locate high mark-up non-food items near the check-out line for impulse purchase. One of his favorite items was a product called “L’eggs”. This was a cheap pantyhose packaged in a plastic egg shaped container that facilitated impulse buying by housewives. Father would position those in bins right next to the check-out line. Father often mentioned that the big appeal of the grocery industry was their high volume, e.g. one store typically turned over a million dollars a day. I never fully understood why that was appealing since a million dollars a day with almost no margin was not really that much money. As a snotty nosed kid, I did some summer jobs that my father organized working at one of Ralphs’ warehouses. As a part time job, my brother also worked for Ralphs as a night shift forklift operator at their refrigerated meat storage warehouse in Compton (an incredibly nasty job at a terrible location). Father had ambition for me to become a grocery store pharmacist or a butcher (both good paying professions). I opted instead to be an aeronautical engineer (no regrets).
Eggplant #39
I’m not too worried about water. I have a 16,000 gal freshwater reservoir in the back yard I just spent over $15K on refurbing.
I have about 42 cans of chili and beans and a few cans of other stuff, as well typically a few weeks worth of cereal and other things, and I rotate them to keep them fresh. Food would be boring but adequately nourishing. The main thing I wonder about is fresh vegetables; you can grow some but that takes time. I am worried about flour and things of that nature since it seems that no matter how you seal it up the bugs get in; the bugs must come in it. I just threw out a couple of pounds of pancake mix because of that.
I have a container labeled “NBCW,” filled with with gas masks, dosimeters, radiation survey meters, etc.
I have a 2KW gasoline powered generator and want to get a 14KW natural gas one that can pretty much run the critical items in the house. I have rechargable flourescent lights, hand cranked lights and radio receivers, and HF SSB, VHF, and UHF communication radios, and kerosene lanterns.
I have a 4X4 truck, which has come in handy when tropical storms cause flooding.
And of course I have guns, ranging from BB’s to battle rifles.
I am not looking forward to using any of this stuff in earnest.
35, Dworkin Barimen, you should look at the Calvert School’s offerings. http://www.calvertschool.org They started out equipping missionaries with what they would need to instruct their children. They’d be a good place to start for a homeschool curriculum.
“…the bugs must come in it. I just threw out a couple of pounds of pancake mix because of that.”
Jeesh, what do you use for protein? I understand you can pack your flower in jars and add some dry ice. Creates a nitrogen environment. Also, pack smaller portions so that you don’t have 50lbs of crapped out supplies.
Check out what sailboat cruisers do. On the water is the worst environment for preserving food and they spend months on the sea.
Josh @40…
The grocery industry’s fantasy is that your assertion might be even remotely true.
The following items are sold at virtually cost/ no profit margin because they are deemed too visible:
Milk ( all of its profits occur at the wholesale level — hence the proliferation of ‘house’ brands. )
Canned goods ( again, profits occur at the manufacturer’s level — )
———-
For the LONGEST time the grocers made their bacon in the MEAT DEPARTMENT. Hence, the staggering number of ex-meat cutters running the whole store.
The other department that offers a viable profit is PRODUCE.
What they both have in common is highly perishable goods. The true source of chronic profits is merchandising skill ( turn over / volume ) in these quasi-commodity goods. Anything that requires no skill — on a perpetual basis — quickly becomes competed right into the ground.
The most recent years has seen the evolution of (merchandising skill intensive) fresh baked goods — and coffee shops. These odor intensive goods exhibit a multiplier effect: they stimulate us into buying even more food — an effect above and beyond their own direct metrics.
This reality had the industry transforming their stores retro-actively. (!)
Other store areas that don’t directly cover their ‘nut’: banking and fast food. Again, they’re inserted because of collateral effects.
Over time, the high margin store (100% mark-ups) has been driven into dust.
By the way, many items that sport apparently huge mark-ups suffer from brutally low turnover. After shelf space rent is applied against their sweet profits — they fall to Earth.
———–
There are a few food wholesalers/ master distributors remaining outside the orbit of Walmart.
And strangely enough, I just so happen to have had the odd experience of reading their internal cost numbers — which work out their margins to the MILL. (Lots of canned goods in their mix)
There is an overwhelming tendency (see Josh) to look at raw numbers and discount the staggering outlays directly associated with retailing. Most of these outlays are non-negotiable for the most part:
Fuel costs
Transportation
Cost of living for your crews — which feeds back into what you must pay for their labor
Government — which inflicts hidden taxes upon the hoi polloi via mass merchants in countless ways (Check out your cable TV bill or your phone bill(s))
RWE @ 43 said:
“I have a container labeled “NBCW,” filled with with gas masks, dosimeters, radiation survey meters, etc.”
I keep a gas mask by my bed along with a nightstick/flashlight and ka-bar. During a house fire, a layer of poisonous smoke can form up near the ceiling. Supposedly one good lung full of that smoke can cause a person to pass-out (lots of nasty chemicals due to burning plastic). My thinking is that if I wake up at night and discover the house is on fire, I can put on that gas mask and pull out my family should they be unconscious due to the smoke. I also have smoke detectors in the attic. My neighbor’s house burned down due to an electrical fire in his attic. That fire smoldered for days before it became a full conflagration. Had he a smoke detector in his attic, his house would have been saved.
I have long toyed with the idea of buying an old civil defense Geiger counter from eBay. It would be handy to have should we get nuked by the Iranians, North Koreans or the Chinese.
Blatantly stealing some ideas here that I have not already implemented.
#43 RWE
Don’t have that good a source of water storage, but have two reliable sources of flowing water with one right on the property. I go for containers and a bunch of bleach stockpiled.
I got this from some Mormon friends.
First, in every state of the union, the Mormon Church has at least one canning plant used for packing food for long term storage. You can either buy their surplus production or bring in your own food to have it packed in #10 cans. This works for grains, beans, rice, etc. and has the advantage of being a more convenient size. Open what you need, keep the rest safe. Also allows you to trade or give supplies if so inclined.
Fallback position. Get 2 liter bottles with caps. There is a thing called an “oxygen absorber packet”. Here is an explanation of them. I am not recommending any brand, but this page has a good explanation of what they are and how to use them.
http://www.pleasanthillgrain.com/buy_oxygen_absorbers_for_food_storage_cc.aspx
You can find them online in various quantities, sizes, and prices. Shop around.
Fill the bottle with any grain, flour, bean, rice, etc. Add an oxygen absorber and seal. This will preserve it from spoilage AND kill off any critters. Stack in layers in a galvanized metal, tightly lidded, garbage can. That keeps the rodents out.
For water purification, I also have seen this, which I find interesting:
http://pfp.he207.vps.webenabled.net/?page_id=63
In any long term storage/preparedness scenario; I recommend having at least one #10 can of an assortment of heirloom vegetable seeds. These can be purchased from a number of sources online. You want heirloom seeds, because the seeds you get from the crop are viable for the next season. Hybrid seeds frequently are not.
Finally, something to consider. Our local TEA Party group sponsors a monthly “Preparedness Breakfast” where we share information on different subjects along this line. We meet at a local restaurant for breakfast and have presentations, and decide amongst ourselves who will present what the next meeting. I tend to specialize in solar applications [cookers, water and space heaters]. Other topics include water purification, medicinal plants, edible wild plants, food preservation and storage, and whatever comes up.
The ability do to do this depends, of course, on both the nature of your local TEA Party, and your physical location. Things will be different in different parts of the country, and if you live in an urban area your first priority needs to be bugging out and getting to somewhere survivable.
Subotai Bahadur
egg @ 42: at their refrigerated meat storage warehouse in Compton…
I worked for a year on the computer systems at the Compton location, and occassionally wandered into the real grocery areas as well. It’s all industrial and not that horrible (unless you don’t like trucks!), and way back in the day Compton itself wasn’t all that horrible.
b @ 46: There is an overwhelming tendency (see Josh) to look at raw numbers and discount the staggering outlays directly associated with retailing.
Of course, but the *gross* markup on the average item is still about 50%. If they want to claim slim *net* margins that they make up in volume, that also is a truism and a misleading claim. The better figure of merit is gross or net dollars per square foot per month. At which Trader Joes does an *amazingly* better job.
Of course they also mix in some loss leaders, and even today both Ralphs/Kroger and Vons/Safeway are still reasonable in selling the basics at what look like minimal markups so if necessary you can survive on a limited diet (and more traditional cooking!) on a limited budget.
Funny thing is that the old greybeards at the company said that about every 5 years, they would switch from a highly-regimented production system to a more loose version, and vice-versa. Management always had to be pushing a “new solution to our problems!”
One of the most corrosive aspect of modern management it that nobody gets credit for keeping something working. “That was Fred’s win. What have you done?” is the review question.
So the new guy dismantles or discards Fred’s multi-million dollar cash cow so that he can get a promotion and a bonus for building a replacement that generates a fraction of the profit.
RE: grocery store margins. Gross margins are fairly low in the grocery business, but turnover is amazingly high, so in the end the profit is usually okay. Yearly Profit = Margin * Turnover.
Josh @ 49 said:
“I worked for a year on the computer systems at the Compton location, and occasionally wandered into the real grocery areas as well. It’s all industrial and not that horrible (unless you don’t like trucks!), and way back in the day Compton itself wasn’t all that horrible.”
When my brother worked in Compton, that place had the distinction of having the highest murder rate in the United States. Oddly enough, this was not a problem for my brother because he worked the graveyard shift while all the heroin addicts were asleep.
I remember my father showing us the computer facility at Ralphs’ main corporate office where he worked (they called their computer facility the “laundromat”). At the time they had an IBM/360 computer that filled several rooms and kept about 4 guys busy around the clock. Both Father and I were extremely impressed by that ancient technology and I thought those guys working on the IBM/360 had the coolest jobs in the world. Partially due to that experience, I made a point of learning the Job Control Language (JCL) and assembly language (BAL) for the IBM/360. That knowledge is now totally useless (like knowing how to read Demotic hieroglyphics).
Eggplant #47
While often labeled as “Geiger Counters,” most of the surplus CD meters you will find on ebay or elsewhere are in fact radiation survey meters. They are not made for searching for Uranium in the Mojave but simply to detect hazardous conditions. Most are made by Victoreen, and in fact using that name is a good way to search for them. You need to make sure you buy one of the later ones that only requires D cell batteries. I have one of those as well as an earlier vacuum tube model that requires both 2 D cells and a 22.5 V battery. Some of the later ones have dismountable sensors so you can have the read-out in one place and the sensor in another. When I bought my later Victoreen unit on ebay the guy also sent me some CD surplus dosimeters, which was nice because I had bought a surplus dosimeter charger a few years before for $1.00.
The old CD shelters supplies got surplused a while back and there were people selling a half dozen of the meters on ebay for $50 or less. Not sure about what they are selling now, but you can bet there are some for sale.
Subotai #48:
That’s an interesting idea. The problem is, I took the pancake mix and stored it in those glass jars that have the lever type locking sealed lid. I think I could have stored those jars on the bottom of my pool or on the Moon and it would have been Okay as far as things getting in or out. One of the jars was okay but the other – the larger one – had a bunch of bugs – who died there because they could not get out. The bug larvae had to be in the mix before I sealed it up, and they would be in a metal can, too. Metal cans are good idea, because I have found that cardboard is useless and plastic bags just about as vulnerable as to the bugs getting in and out. I guess you would have to irradiate the stuff with ionizing radiation before you stored it in order to be sure.
52. RWE
I don’t know about flour, but I stick dried grains/legumes in the freezer for a few weeks before sealing them in long term storage containers and that seems to do the trick in conjunction with oxygen absorbers (essentially finely-powdered iron that rusts to sequester oxygen) or the dry ice method for displacing oxygen.
FWIW it ‘s my understanding that flour doesn’t store particularly well. Unground wheat does much better (like 20+ years) although it’s much less convenient to mill your own flour as needed.
;^)
Freezing for a period of time will kill the bug eggs in the flour, too. I *think* I read two weeks, but I’ve always believed in overkill.
SwampWoman
I think we must keep the same hours.
;^)
RWE @ 52 said:
“… most of the surplus CD meters you will find on ebay or elsewhere are in fact radiation survey meters. They are not made for searching for Uranium in the Mojave but simply to detect hazardous conditions. Most are made by Victoreen, and in fact using that name is a good way to search for them. You need to make sure you buy one of the later ones that only requires D cell batteries. I have one of those as well as an earlier vacuum tube model that requires both 2 D cells and a 22.5 V battery. Some of the later ones have dismountable sensors so you can have the read-out in one place and the sensor in another. ”
I went to eBay and found the following:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/CDV-715-Victoreen-NUCLEAR-Radiation-Detector-/230866281892?pt=BI_Security_Fire_Protection&hash=item35c0b3e5a4
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Victoreen-CDV-700-Radiological-Survey-Meter-Geiger-Counter-Model-6A-/190746656181?pt=BI_Security_Fire_Protection&hash=item2c6962fdb5
Can you comment about either device? Do you own anything like these? Have you attempted to test devices like these with either a thorium lantern mantle or a smoke detector americium radiation source? Thanks!
RWE,
Upon further study it looks like the Victoreen CDV-700 is the one to get. Apparently a functioning CDV-715 requires a near fatal level of radiation before it will indicate anything while the CDV-700 can be tested with a thorium mantle. Has this been your experience?
In my opinion the CDV-715 is useless because it can not be tested.
From the original post: “The candles serve that purpose. To keep from burning your house down ground the candles in the bottom of shallow glasses (don’t use plastic) so that you can carry them around without drippings falling on your hand.”
It would be prudent to turn off the gas line before switching to candles.
Re 1. Josh “and I *wish* that LED light manufacturers would much more often design around D-cells for just such purposes. They don’t.”
You can get a LED replacement lamps for the big D cell maglites if you have the body already, and maglite is now making LED C and D cell lights. However, AA is easier to carry, recharge, and resupply in an emergency. The newer LED iterations (with XML or XPG) are quite efficient on AA. I recommend a 2AA light with a pocket clip, you can clip it into your PJ pants at bedtime, while a C or D cell cannot be worn in such a manner (except for laughs).
How long could I survive? As long as I’ve stockpiled enough ammunition, longer than anyone else in my neck of the woods.
Okay, so I’m being tongue in cheek, but you’ve got to be prepared for those out there who will thinking (and planning on) exactly that.
lescoulee @ 25:
Coal is an excellent choice for home heat, plus heating water and cooking food if necessary. Are you in the US? What part of the country? Coal is likely more available than you might think.
Anthracite is generally the better option for home heat (no smoke, long burn times with high and consistent heat output), but geographically limited availability (all of Northeast, Midwest, upper south). Bituminous widely spread geographically, but can be smoky until you learn how to burn it properly.
I’ve been heating my large home almost exclusively with an anthracite stove for the past 4 years–kind of fun, requires about 5-10 minutes of tending twice daily, and far cheaper than the propane I had been using. Nice having two years worth of heat (about 4.5 tons per year) at hand, independent of what happens.