Libya and Turkey
Two new hotspots have emerged in recent weeks. The first is the Turkish border with Syria. The Turkish government has authorized retaliatory raids into Syria.
ISTANBUL — Turkey’s Parliament approved a motion Thursday that authorizes further military action against Syria, as Turkey began its second day of shelling targets within Syria in response to a mortar attack that killed five civilians.
The measure, which was ratified after several hours of a closed-door session in the capital, Ankara, permits cross-border raids, although senior officials insisted that NATO ally Turkey did not want a war with its Arab neighbor — an escalation that could turn Syria’s bloody civil strife into a regional conflict with international involvement.
Since Turkey is a NATO ally any action involving Ankara could, under certain circumstances, involve the alliance. NATO issued this statement:
As stated on 26 June 2012, the Alliance continues to closely follow the situation in Syria. In view of the Syrian regime’s recent aggressive acts at NATO’s southeastern border, which are a flagrant breach of international law and a clear and present danger to the security of one of its Allies, the North Atlantic Council met today, within the framework of Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, and discussed the continuous shelling of locations in Turkey adjacent to the Turkish-Syrian border by the Syrian regime forces.
The most recent shelling on 3 October 2012, which caused the death of five Turkish citizens and injured many, constitutes a cause of greatest concern for, and is strongly condemned by, all Allies.
In the spirit of indivisibility of security and solidarity deriving from the Washington Treaty, the Alliance continues to stand by Turkey and demands the immediate cessation of such aggressive acts against an Ally, and urges the Syrian regime to put an end to flagrant violations of international law.
Hillary Clinton spoke to the Turkish Foreign Minister, but the contents of their discussion were not disclosed. However, “the secretary condemned the Syrian attack and expressed the United States’ heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims,” according to a State Department spokesperson.
The other hotspot was North Africa. The Hill says that the US military is preparing counterstrikes against the perpetrators of the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. “The target packages include background intelligence on terror suspects in Libya and elsewhere in North Africa.”
The range of operations being considered by DOD and the intelligence community run the gamut from armed drone strikes to covert kill or capture raids similar to the bin Laden operation …
Sufian bin Qumu, a former terror detainee at the American facility in Cuba, could theoretically be included in that emerging target list being drafted for the White House as well as members of the Libyan Islamic Liberation Group (LIFG).
The LIFG is an al Qaeda-affiliated terror cell headquartered in Benghazi.
Bin Qumu was discussed as a person of interest in relation to the raid during classified briefing by top diplomatic, defense and intelligence officials to Congress earlier this month.
But the Libyan national, who was handed over to Tripoli by the U.S., was released in 2010 as part of a deal with the Libyan government and the LIFG.
The planned strikes may explain the non-arrival of the FBI in Benghazi. If Bin Qumu is going to be struck in Benghazi then the city could become a place of active conflict. Less explicable are the stories in the New York Times announcing the action. Yet another “top-secret” operation is announced in a newspaper headline.
The top-secret Joint Special Operations Command is compiling so-called target packages of detailed information about the suspects, the officials said. Working with the Pentagon and the C.I.A., the command is preparing the dossiers as the first step in anticipation of possible orders from President Obama to take action against those determined to have played a role in the attack on a diplomatic mission in the eastern city of Benghazi that killed Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three colleagues three weeks ago.
However the article also hints that President Obama is caught between trying to look tough and undermining his Libyan supporters.
The preparations underscore the bind confronting the White House over the Benghazi attack. Mr. Obama has vowed to bring the killers to justice, and in the final weeks of the presidential campaign Republicans have hammered the administration over the possible intelligence failures that preceded the attack — including a new accusation that repeated requests for strengthened security in Benghazi had been rejected.
But any American military action on Libyan soil would risk casualties and almost certainly set off a popular backlash at a moment when support for the revolt against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi had created a surge in good feeling toward the United States that is unique in the region.
Events in both Turkey and Libya now have the potential for further escalation at a time when the presidential campaign reaches a fever pitch.
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I’m not so sure any more how much freedom of action Obama and his administration have. He displayed himself as wholly NOT in command. TPTB recognize clearly now that he is a liability.
As Stanley Kurtz at NRO pointed out, his re-election strategy (painting Mitt as an unacceptable alternative to his wonderfulness) is now in shambles with no good options. Any military dog-wagging will look overtly political, rather than a shoring up of his only foreign policy cred (OBL’s assassination).
Obama’s handler’s are now in a frenzy of re-grouping and re-thinking their options.
Yet another “top-secret” operation is announced in a newspaper headline.
The NYT is part and parcel of the Democrat Establishment. Obama gets to internally poll how voters would react to a list of actions described in the NYT and pick the one that is most likely to boost his reelection chances.
Doesn’t this putative retaliation beg the question? If US intelligence is so good it can ID the perpetrators and spit our their GPS locations, then why the hell wasn’t it good enough to provide fair warning of the attacks and prevent them? These pieces do not fit together.
Someone at another site pointed out that the American public just saw the President Obama that Putin and all the other bad guys knew about all along. Now we know why they were kicking him around. But if he was weak then his recent public humiliation has made him even weaker now.
Nobody should gloat because he’s still the President until January. And in the meantime, every shark within miles is going to be homing in on the scent of blood. They will emboldened to try a stunt because they think they can get away with it.
The NYT has it right. Obama’s caught between looking weak by not striking back and lighting a fuse to a bomb that may blow up in his face. What can the President do? What all Presidents have done before. Ask for help both within the his own party and across the aisle.
The Constitution envisioned foreign policy and especially armed action as conducted on the basis of a consensus of the entire nation. As late as GWB Presidents took the trouble to get authorizations from Congress. The process, cumbersome though it was, meant everyone or most everyone had to sign on the dotted. He didn’t take the trouble. Lately, all the public has had are these vague “kinetic military actions” and “responsibilities to protect” — war by executive order.
That worked while President Obama was still the Dos Equis Man. The Most Interesting Man in the world doesn’t need any stinking permission to do anything. But now that he’s been demoted from Messiah to just an ordinary President he’ll feel the need to convince people before acting. He should have done this from the first.
Well, it’s not too late. But if he continues to run his administration on the advice of Axelrod, Jarrett and the rest of his zany political circle we are in for a long three months.
1914
Why do I have the feeling we’ve been here before? It feels like 1914 again. Events spinning out of control and none with the wit nor will to stop the coming catastrophe. It’s like watching a black and white slide show running backwards
The RMS Titanic sank
A hundred years ago
And now in climate drear and dank
The world begins to slow
And retrograde begin the slide
To times now dim and past
In spite of our hubris and pride
The film runs backward fast
Depression, war, and now the Turks
And can you spare a dime
The slide show races through the works
Of man’s most recent climb
From barbarism on a scale
Not seen for eons gone
Atrocities beyond the pale
Attacking with the dawn
From trenches filled with rotting men
We see them being dug
Then in a flash we see again
A liner and a tug
She’s heading for the Outer Bank
The film now running slow
And there the proud Titanic sank
A mere two years ago
And of course, as I’ve said all along, such developments are good things.
From 1980 until 1988, the Iraqis went at the Iranians with gusto. Millions died and Muslim coffers were drained waging Jihad within the House of Islam. That is just. We were wise enough back then to sit back and watch our mortal enemies slaughter each other wholesale. But liberal fascists in the West did everything in their power to paint any egging on of that conflict, or assitance rendered to keep the bloodbath going, as beyond the pale of decency. Remember Oliver North being dragged before Congress in Iran Contra? The obscenity was in the amnesia the press imposed by re-writing the narrative.
Bush1 took his cue from the new narrative on Islam and set about to be a kinder, gentler guy, and thus began the nightmares of R2P and “winning hearts and minds”. Clinton followed suit and installed a Jihad mini state right in the heart of Europe in Kosovo. Bush2 followed on with the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan. I suported both of those wars, foolishly not comprehending that our efforts to kill our enemies would be nullified by moronic campaigns to make them our friends before annihilating the ideology of Islam in those sewers.
We must exploit the myriad fissures within Islam and help Muslims anywhere they want to kill each other, which is pretty much everyplace Muslims reside. We must weaken the House of Islam by making sure to augment everyplace their hideous house is divided. Funds get sopped up in endless conflict. Muslims stop waging global Jihad and begin worrying about a thousand little wars in their front yards. Money is even made with massive arms sales to the billion-plus beligerants. If one side looks to be losing, we covertly or overtly aid that side until an equilibrium of war is once again established.
Let Muslims spend their hatred on other Muslims. That is a profoundly just approach to Islam.
After more than twenty years of operations in the mid-east the world has become accustomed to the American armed forces being unbeatable; destroying any target in its sights, defeating any armed force that meets it on open ground. The lessons the world has come away with are;
1. Stay out of sight of American forces; if they can see you they can kill you.
2. DO NOT take on the U.S. soldier in the open, directly, he will beat you.
3. America can only be beaten by taking on the ‘Man behind the gun’; the political leaders of America, who for the moment haven’t anywhere near the competence of their military.
The lessons we should take away from all of this experience;
1. The military can destroy almost anything you point it at.
2.Mastery of one discipline-destruction-does not necessarily translate to the political realm.
Translation; any damned fool can order something blown up, how to replace what you have destroyed requires more political wisdom than we seem to possess at the moment.
What is the greater sin; allowing the innocent to perish because you are unwilling or unable to save them?
Or, killing the innocent in an attempt to get at the evil?
It’s never as easy as it looks, something our president is learning.
Hopefully, we’ll select a president this November who already knows that.
Everything about Obama, to me, screams out ‘puppet.’ I think Jarrett, Van Jones and others have been running the WH agenda from day one. I’m not suggesting conspiracy theory, there was no conspiracy, they just sort of fell into a soft target. No one believed Obama was going to beat Hillary, until he did. Hillary had a slew of experienced operators but Obama only had a collection of dreamers and looters. Obama just wants the perks of the office, the fame, the golf time and the occasional vote of ‘present.’ The far-left believes the past four years were their turn at the trough, and obviously this was true enough. They have been looting the treasury and after Obama loses in November they will just look for another soft target. It’s all about the juice for these former nobodies. Which is why nothing productive was done for the past four years.
“created a surge in good feeling toward the United States that is unique in the region”
America is always most popular in the arab world just after getting our teeth kicked in.
A new classification schedule is due.
1. Tip Top Secret
2. Super Seekrit Secret
3. Oh Well What the Hell
4. We read it in the New York Times.
The best reaction? “They lie about everything. Why believe this?”
Putin tried hard to wean the Turks away from Nato into his Iran-Syria Axis of Gas. Stopping the new Israeli supplies from coming online is a key part of his strategy.
There is also a potential that a strike would be ordered and something goes dreadfully wrong. This is always a distinct possibility.
Boots on the ground could result in Mogehdeshu like events.
His favs, cruise missles or drone strikes could result in school children body parts.
I think the risk is too great for a pre election strike if looking at it from a political prism…
Speaking of our buddies the Jihadists, this story seems to be getting very little play:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/9585098/Al-Qaeda-blamed-for-Europe-wide-forest-fires.html
Namely, that al-Qaeda has been setting forest fires in Europe as part of a “thousand cuts” strategy. I think the Haji’s are really sensing the utter weakness and chaos in Europe and the flaccidity of Team Obama. The tide is rising for them. The “October Surprise” may just come from a very dark swan that has realized it’s time to stretch its wings.
Turkey’s Parliament approved a motion Thursday that authorizes further military action against Syria,
What? Turkey consulted its parliament before initiating a military response? Can we have Turkey’s government until Romney is actually President? /sarc
Have we gone so far down the slippery slope away from the Constitution that a Turkish government has more legitimacy than our own?
Wow, Walt. That was great.
(Ugh, .500. We’ll get ‘em next year.)
Does Greece have a veto on NATO action?
bftp @ 9: A new classification schedule is due.
1. Tip Top Secret
2. Super Seekrit Secret
3. Oh Well What the Hell
4. We read it in the New York Times.
To be fair, that’s always already been in force, the question is whether we trust TPTB to be using it correctly and no we don’t.
Kent Gatewood 14,
“Does Greece have a veto on NATO action?”
They sure do, and the Greek sovereign authority is meeting right now to consider the issue, in Frankfurt am Main. Thank you for the question. We can always use a good laugh.
Josh 15,
True but given the recent demise of Punch Sulzberger we may consider how things have changed under Pinch. While the Times even before the Age of Scotty Reston and into the days of Punch and Abe Rosenthal, was always arrogant and frequently wrong, they were not intentionally on the other side. Those who came before were the real deal Roosevelt Democrats. They thought that America was worth fighting for. Even when we disagree with their policies and associations we should draw a line between the Liberals of the 20th century and both the disciplined totalitarians like Saul Alinsky of the Comintern linked Old Left (1930s-50s), and the New Left activists (1960s-70s) like Bill Ayers and their media enablers, who now dominate the Democratic Party.
That is the nub of it. Except I would add “/clients” to “supporters”. The Muslim Brotherhood was installed by the United States in a war by the sole order of Buraq Hussein Obama; without the consent of the Congress and the nation. The Muslim Brotherhood, Obama’s chosen side, is complicit in the events of 9/11/12. Obama will not really turn on the Muslim Brotherhood, or any other anti-American Islamist movement; for that would be the rankest treason in his mind. But he has to do something, probably desperate, to hold on to power; especially after being handed major chunks of his gluteal musculature last night on nationwide TV.
Expect a major air/missile strike in Libya at some out of the way place. A place where there will be no important or guilty members of the MB. And expect the media equivalent of a Roman Emperor’s Triumph [minus any concept of "Respice te, hominem te memento"].
#2 Peter Boston
This, repeated over and over when the bombs and missiles start flying.
Subotai Bahadur
I wouldn’t like that NATO goes into the conflict for the Turks, they have enough military means for sorting out this deal themselves
The great Turkish allies, never there when needed.
Turkey has openly supported the rebel forces in Syria. Turkey has loudly proclaimed the existence of the rebels super secret base of operations on her soil. Surely Syria has every right to take action against such flagrant violations of the laws of nations?
“20. DWD
Turkey has openly supported the rebel forces in Syria. Turkey has loudly proclaimed the existence of the rebels super secret base of operations on her soil. Surely Syria has every right to take action against such flagrant violations of the laws of nations?”
Yep and the part the Turks really fear… the fruits and vegetables they normally sell at Ashans and Perekrostiks in Moscow and St. Petersburg will get to rot at the pier, perhaps even before the Turkish army tank drivers start coming home from any incursion into Syria in bodybags. If those Russian ATs worked on Merkavas in Lebanon why won’t they fry M-60s in northern Syria?
Ankara better think again, quickly, about NATO fighting Syria to the last Turk.