Is Denial a River in Egypt?
The Christian Science Monitor asks whether an Islamist coup has just taken place in Egypt. “Have President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood swept away Hosni Mubarak’s old guard and set the stage for a rapid Islamization of the Egyptian government?” The newspaper concludes: ‘hardly’. But the Monitor doesn’t even sound like it has itself convinced.
Almost certainly not. President Morsi’s moves yesterday, taken in consultation with the Islamist movement that vaulted him to the presidency, were a bold reworking of the rules of the Egyptian transitional game. He sacked Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and the heads of the air force, army, and navy, appointed a respected judge as his vice president, and with the stroke of a pen undid a set of restrictions that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had imposed on Egypt’s political transition.
By any measure, he and his movement are in a much stronger position than they were Saturday. But how long that position of strength will last, and how much Morsi will be able to accomplish, given the country’s perilous financial position and tremendous political polarization, are far from clear. The military’s still substantial influence, Morsi’s need for foreign cash and support, and the fears of a sizable minority of Egyptians about the Brotherhood’s goals have littered the political landscape with minefields.
“It’s just a flesh wound”. Sure it is. A friend of mine with extensive and current contacts in Egypt wrote last night to say that that the Obama administration has been putting out the word that there’s nothing to worry about in Egypt; that the gyrations we are now witnessing are just a curious local custom. It happens all the time. He wrote almost incredulously about the the lack of a reaction in Washington.
According to David Ignatius in today’s WaPo, US officials ‘weren’t ringing alarm bells Sunday night, cautioning that this is in part a generational change, replacing figures who had become increasingly unpopular and isolated in post-revolutionary Egypt.’
And that’s indeed what Ignatius says. “The US officials ‘specifically discounted rumors that were circulating late Sunday that Sissi [the new army boss, full name Abdel Fattah al-Sisi] is an Islamist with secret connections to the Muslim Brotherhood. To the contrary, officials say, Sissi is well known to the U.S. military after spending a year of professional training in the United States and was regarded as a generally effective head of military intelligence.’”
But as my friend points out “this ‘new generation’ army man in Cairo is actually the same guy who hit the headlines last year when he came out and defended those brutal ‘virginity tests’ conducted by the army on women they rounded up in Tahrir Square.”
The appointment of this particular fellow is of strategic interest in that it seems almost calculated to galvanise all the different active opponents of the MB in Egypt — women especially, but Copts and ‘liberals’ generally — into protest. This comes on top of the blame heaped on the MB last week in the streets for the deaths of 16 or so Egyptian soldiers at the hands of ‘Bedouin’ in the Sinai. In other words, the MB’s campaign to subdue its non-Islamist opponents has a little way to run yet – but the MB are now effectively saying, ‘bring it on’. And why not?
It seems the most decisive factor single factor in determining this MB strategy and its likely outcome is Washington itself – most notably the fulsome support given to the MB by Hillary Clinton in her recent visit to Cairo. As in Iran, the MB opponents are being left orphaned in the streets — and, effectively, in western public opinion – by the US. This is in some ways worse however: given the terrible economic outlook in Egypt, and its abysmal levels of social development (with 40 per cent illiteracy , there is fear among non-Islamists in Cairo that the country may soon be more like Afghanistan than Iran.
If there are any prominent liberals at all left in the US who are prepared to publicly stand up to the Obama administration in the name of preserving some minimal decency in the ‘new Egypt’ now emerging, let alone human rights, right now would be a good time for them to speak up. But I guess no-one’s holding their breath.
Nope, you’d only get yourself blue in the face. But if it’s any consolation, David Ignatius has his doubts about the administration’s reassuring line. He points out that it looks like a coup so maybe it is a coup.
What’s indisputable is that the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Morsi is a longtime member, has now tightened its grip on Egypt, controlling the military as well as the presidency and the parliament. That’s either an example of democracy in action and civilian control of the military, or a Muslim Brotherhood putsch, depending on your viewpoint. It probably has elements of both.
The only concerns of unnamed US officials Ignatius cites concerns the independence of the Egyptian courts. It brings to mind the reactions of those old couples, who confronted with the burning of their house react in their shock by rescuing the the most insignificant belongings in view.
The U.S. view is that the replacement of aging top military leaders, in itself, isn’t worrying. But they would be concerned if Morsi moved to make changes in Egypt’s judiciary, which has been an important independent center of power since the Tahrir Square revolution that deposed Mubarak in February 2011. Worries about the judiciary were prompted by another Morsi move Sunday — to appoint senior judge Mahmoud Mekki as vice president. The fear is that Mekki, as a former jurist, might reject rulings by the courts.
Caroline Glick, writing from Jerusalem quotes reports saying the IDF was completely surprised but argues they should not have been.
Clearly our esteemed generals believed reassurances they received from their Egyptian military counterparts that Israel had no reason to be concerned with the election of Hamas’s big brother to Egypt’s presidency.
This reminds me of what former chief of the IDF’s General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi said at the Jerusalem Post’s conference in New York on April 29. In his remarks Ashkenazi said that no one in the IDF foresaw Mubarak’s overthrow during the anti-regime protests in Tahrir Square. I began my remarks by mentioning that I had foreseen his overthrow and replacement by the Muslim Brotherhood already back in 2004. And like me, everyone paying attention to the internal make-up of Egyptian society — rather than to the empty promises of generals with no popular support — recognized that Israel’s peace with Egypt was not long for this world. …
I am not saying this to rub Ashkenazi’s nose in his massive errors. I mention it because the same general staff that failed to foresee what was going to happen in Egypt, and fails to this day to understand the strategic implications of the Muslim Brotherhood takeover for the IDF, is the IDF that insists today that Israel can trust Obama to take care of Iran for us.
One thing’s for sure. If the IDF was surprised then it sure wasn’t the routine “generational change” that happens routinely in that neck of the woods. Their lack of surprise suggests that either they were completely blindsided or that the IDF had already got the word that Washington would not be surprised by the sackings at all.
So maybe someone has been sold out, but just who is still unclear. Is it Iran with US objections to striking their weapons removed in exchange for a nolo contendere in Egypt? Is it American public interest, proving once and for all that Andy McCarthy was right to warn that the Muslim Brotherhood had the ear of Clinton? Was it Israel itself which is now left holding the bag? In any case, the Copts were sold down the river last night. For it is hard to imagine they will like what happens next.
The best case for the administration reaction to Egypt it that it is whistling past the graveyard of its own policies. The worst case is that we are witnessing the ridiculous ‘success’ of its policies.
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Clearly our esteemed generals believed reassurances they received from their Egyptian military counterparts that Israel had no reason to be concerned with the election of Hamas’s big brother to Egypt’s presidency.
Yeah, I’m sorry, this is baloney.
Which Israeli Generals is she referring to? Is it retired irrelevancies like Ephraim Sneh or just figments of the Israeli media’s imagination in order to cover up their own [now-exposed] incompetence.
The defense and intelligence establishments in the US have been abuzz with these kinds of developments for months. Contractors getting out of dodge, assets being liquified and transferred, former and active US servicemen getting calls from in-country connections from previous liaison duties and exchange programs, people asking them for favors and information, intense traffic that is a bullhorn for “The house is on fire”. Basically, it’s been a veritable stampede these past few months. Nobody could miss this, least of all the Israelis who have as many if not better networked Egyptian sources than we do (for good reason).
Granted, we’ve been hamstrung given stated US policy from the White House and the fact that everything is run out of Hillary’s office these days, but if the US Military and Intel networks are privy to these developments (nobody’s THAT clueless except for dumbass ostriches in newsrooms), I find it extremely hard to believe that the Israeli Military would be taken by surprise no matter what this blogger Caroline Glick has to say.
I’ll accept that the Israelis didn’t say anything because they couldn’t do anything about it, or tried and got beat to the punch. I don’t know for sure, but I’d guess different interests tried different approaches depending on their agendas (like us).
But telling me that the Israelis haven’t been scrambling to head off this outcome, an outcome that even the CIA probably couldn’t miss if it took a dump on their heads?
Yeah, Caroline, tell me another one
I find it extremely hard to believe that the Israeli Military would be taken by surprise no matter what this blogger Caroline Glick has to say.
I raised the same possibility in the main text of the post. The fix was in.
But just what was the “fix”? Did Morsi bring up his plans for the near future during Hillary’s trip to Egypt? And what was the quid for the quo? As I put it in the main post:
One likes to think that people in high places have a plan. How could they not? So maybe Hillary and the President are playing a Deep Game and even though we can’t understand it, ‘they know best’.
But as the Fall of the Shah demonstrated, sometimes there is no plan. Sometimes people who act stupid are really just stupid, not smart people shamming stupidity. Which is it? Nothing to do but wait around and find out.
So the brotherhood has taken over the army but U.S. officials are worried about the “independence of the Egyptian courts”?
To paraphrase Joseph Stalin, “how many divisions does the Egyptian court have?”
The courts, I’m afraid, will do whatever those who control the use of force tell them to do. The niceties of independent judiciaries reflect the concerns of effete lawyers who are remarkably disconnected from reality.
Sheesh.
Morsi has re-militarized a previously demilitarized Sinai peninsula, and apparently with Israel’s concurrence. Could this just be moving pieces on board, under cover of “rooting out increasingly aggressive Islamic militants”?
(sorry for long link)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypt-troops-in-sinai-to-fight-militants-alter-the-buffer-enshrined-in-egypt-israel-peace/2012/08/09/e52da99e-e270-11e1-89f7-76e23a982d06_story.html
” I find it extremely hard to believe that the Israeli Military would be taken by surprise ”
Yeah – ‘cuz that’s never happened before!
Could this just be moving pieces on board, under cover of “rooting out increasingly aggressive Islamic militants”?
The conventional wisdom is that conventional hostilities in the Sinai against Israel are currently impossible because Egypt has no money. That is probably true. However, it pays to remember that Egypt was discounted in 1973. Still, Syria, Jordan and Iraq are out of the conventional war game for now and Egypt can hardly attack alone.
Therefore the most logical course of action against Israel, if any is intended, is to turn the Sinai into a kind of southern Lebanon, a base from which to harass and worry Israel. To bleed it to death.
My own guess is that nobody is fully in control. The Arab Spring pulled the lever of the Middle East slot machine but the dial hasn’t stopped yet.
One thing to bear in mind is that many Egyptians genuinely want Morsi and all that he represents. They voted for him after all. One may not like their choice, but there it is. But if the Egyptians have a right to pursue their interests, however irrational it seems, then surely the US has a similar right. The will of the Egyptian people is the problem of the Egyptian President. Now what is the will of the electorate and interest of the United States? And is the administration pursuing it?
A cynical person might say, Egypt voted for Morsi and the US voted for Obama. Fair enough. But 2012 is rolling around and the question will come up again. As long as people get the chance to change their minds all may yet be well.
IIRC, like the day Morsi was elected Hildabeast publicly said that he should not let the military dictate events. This is very nearly made in Washington.
Of course now it comes down to who really has the power, let’s see if Morsi is still consuming oxygen, in Egypt, on Labor Day.
“This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.” – Admiral Josh Painter, The Hunt for Red October
Great News! A round of Pepcide for everyone… Air needs to get cleared and the sooner the better.
The Yom Kippur War was thirty-eight years ago. Does the Egyptian Army have an institutional memory of how much fun it is to fight the IDF? Probably not. Still, the operating officers who’ve kept their heads (down) might be inclined to proceed with all deliberate speed.
”Is it Iran with US objections to striking their weapons removed in exchange for a nolo contendere in Egypt?”
IOW, just to be sure I got it, Israel gets to attack Iran as long as they don’t interfere with the MB in Egypt?
IOW, just to be sure I got it, Israel gets to attack Iran as long as they don’t interfere with the MB in Egypt?
I am just guessing as I have no idea. It is simply that if the IDF went along with a take-down of the Egyptian army they must have gotten something back for it. Either that or Hillary strong-armed Netanyahu. You will recall she went to Israel right after talking to Morsi. So if there was a discussion around this subject, it may have happened then.
The State Department is acting like there’s nothing to worry about, so either they are completely clueless or they are in on it. If the IDF are in on it then what’s in it for them?
About all I can think of is Iran. Maybe the Sauds have promised to let them through. Maybe Hillary has promised not to warn Iran if the Israeli air force sorties on Iran. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Each maybe uglier than the other. About all that can be said is that perhaps there was a deal, and perhaps we’ll find out what it is was in due time.
“Does the Egyptian Army have an institutional memory of how much fun it is to fight the IDF? Probably not.”
I’m sure that sort of memory had a lot to do with the peaceful relations (relatively) between Israel and Egypt for the intervening 38 years. Of course, memories have a half-life. . . .and it looks as if this memory may be past its half-life, or at least to the point where the always simmering undercurrent of anger at the Jews is strong enough to drown out those fading memories.
Also (OT):
Who selected those so-called ”moderators” for the debates? What the hell is wrong with the Republican Party?
This is the same ol’ ”thank you, sir,may I have another?” we’ve been seeing for decades. HELLO?????? The ”moderators” are on the other side!! (don’t tell anybody)
Here’s how the New York Times described events.
Now let’s recall what Hillary told the Egyptians when she visited in July:
So it seems manifestly clear that Hillary was aware Morsi and the the Egyptian Army were squaring off. “Ms. Clinton has repeatedly called on the military to respect the outcome of the elections” which sounds an awful lot like telling the Egyptian army she would not back their play if they went up against Morsi.
She then flew to Israel to talk about “the stalemated Middle East peace process and Iran”. What did she tell them? We’ll forget about the “peace process” for now? We won’t warn the Iranians you’re coming? Or maybe they talked about recipes for gefilte fish and how to make a good knish. I don’t know. But as I said, we’ll find out.
Israel probably had nothing to lose by going along. Could they have stopped Morsi? The rock is rolling and maybe they just have to go with the flow and buy time.
“Darb al-habib zayy akl al-zabib” (The beloved’s fist is as sweet as raisins)
exhelodrvr Yeah – ‘cuz that’s never happened before!
What a child.
If you’re referring to the intelligence “failures” of Yom Kippur, you should know that it didn’t surprise the Israeli Military in the way that you obviously think it did. The Israeli government simply made their best guess and guessed poorly. Choosing a course of action [or inaction] hardly means that you aren’t aware that adverse consequences are possible or that other courses of action might be preferable.
To channel Rumsfeld, Yom Kippur was NOT an unknown-unknown.
The Israeli government sided with the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s policy recommendation out of political expediency. Essentially, they overruled the Military and its own intelligence recommendations. The Israeli government then compounded its poor decision-making with poor leadership by blaming its own decisions on the Military and the Intelligence community. Just because the Israeli Mossad wasn’t aware of every artillery round or Egyptian formation, doesn’t mean it recommended that Israel pull its pants down and bend over (the Foreign Ministry did that). Of course, the Israeli Foreign Ministry went to ground and avoided censure even after the butcher’s bill came due.
Funny how that always happens.
The truth is that plenty of Israeli Military and Intelligence personnel at the time were well aware of the possibility that the Egyptians and/or Syrians might attack, but their “paranoia” was politically incorrect.
Sound familiar?
It was similarly “paranoid” and politically incorrect to publicly warn that the Japanese represented a threat to the United States in 1941. It was also “racist” to believe that Islamic suicide bombers were a threat to American security on September 10 2001. The US Military was frequently ridiculed and brow-beaten by the State Department in both cases who reassured [loudly] to a credulous populace that both Japan and Islam were Peaceful and simply misunderstood.
So yeah, exhelodrvr, take your grubby finger away from people like us and point it at a mirror where it belongs.
The State Department has a natural advantage over the US Military in such matters as politics, especially in Peacetime. They talk a good game, does State.
Of course, after Pearl Harbor and 9/11, the SHTF. Strangely enough, the State Department didn’t receive any historic blame at all for advancing policies that presumed “guarding against a Japanese attack is paranoid” and “Islamic terrorism is a right-wing fantasy”.
Somehow, the US defense personnel (who’s policy recommendations were ignored) received all the blame. Meanwhile the preeminent State Department (who’s policy recommendations were currently in force) get off scott-free.
It never ceases to amaze me.
PS The CIA is a creature of the State Department. Not surprisingly, they share a similar cultural ideology that is fundamentally hostile to the US Military. If you need any more proof of Petraeus’ lack of standing in the Military vis a vis his “victory” in the Iraq War, look no further than his current job in the CIA. The US Military has its own intelligence agencies, and spook central is not one of them.
Is this the same Hillary Clinton who proclaimed that Assad was a reformer? Just asking.
r @ 17: The CIA is a creature of the State Department. Not surprisingly, they share a similar cultural ideology that is fundamentally hostile to the US Military. If you need any more proof of Petraeus’ lack of standing in the Military vis a vis his “victory” in the Iraq War, look no further than his current job in the CIA. The US Military has its own intelligence agencies, and spook central is not one of them.
Verrrrry interesting, re Petraeus.
What’s more, verrrrry interesting in re any clandestine US roles in Egypt or Syria right now.
I realize that the subjects discussed sometimes generate strong emotions, but I think policy #3 is right when it says: 3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
I think we can more freely disagree than otherwise by keeping it objective.
Denial is a river in Washington – rarely plausible. Coincidentally, Hugo Chavez is ordering plans ‘to transform a professional army into a guerrilla army’. Somebody stop him!!! I mean he’s bad, right?
They aren’t messing around in Egypt apparently… “Everybody’s fired. Go home!”
One way or another, CIA was going to own these places and issue crud-filled laptops to every child, so they can know how “free” they are. Spreading democracy, it’s called.
Two competing theories:
1. Do not ascribe to malice what can be credited to incompetence.
vs.
2. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it’s a duck.
Two more competing theories:
1. Obama and Hillary are orchestrating a clever plan to box in the real extremists.
vs.
2. Occam’s Razor or hahahahaha.
The tie breaker was penned by Ian Fleming.
“We have a saying in Chicago Mr Bond. … Three times it’s enemy action.”
My guess is that Hillary was given a tape of an educational evening she had with Hudna, who has earned every dime and then some.
It appears that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is engaged in a lot putsching and shoving.
I hate it when they do that.
Badda-boom.
I’m hear all week, ladies and germs. Try the veal. Don’t forget to tip the waitresses.
I think folks are making too much of the religion angle. Arab spring is happening because (a) Strong-man dictatorships aren’t delivering the standard of living, (b) Theocracies don’t work – the standard of living with Islamic theocracies reverts back to 922ad. (c) The US may be the “great satan”, but they admire our Democracy and basic freedoms – this is what they want.
Islam is no more important than Romney’s mormonism.
US intelligence (and State and DOD) got blindsided again.
Whether the Israeli’s did or not is of little consequence. They are sitting on the side lines watching this episode play out.
Have word from DOD types that the Generals have some sort of agreement with Mr. Morsi. Don’t count on it.
Our professionals in this area are subject to wishful thinking and are easily mislead by people saying things they want to hear.
Called this last April -about 30 others were humming bars of the same tune.
This is the most important foreign policy event that has occurred during this administration. Will be doing what our leadership and the Israelis are: watching events unfold.
Can it be said that the conventional fights between Israel and its neighbors were when the neighbors were stable and the government in the control of…somebody? If so, that lets out Egypt and Syria for now. Border fussing, refugees including sleepers and saboteurs and suiciders.
The CIA was once effective and useful, but it was deliberately destroyed by Stansfield Turner as ordered by Jimmy Carter. It has no value today.
OT:
Barron Boddissy over at the Gates of Vienna has a review of a book that asks an interesting question
http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/08/who-really-killed-pax-romana.html
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Who Really Killed the Pax Romana?
We are told that Roman world died in the early 500′s AD. at the hands of Germanic tribes. However, modern archeology is showing that the death of the Roman world came in the early 700′s coinciding with the Moslem invasion of the Mediterranean world.
13. Yashmak “Does the Egyptian Army have an institutional memory of how much fun it is to fight the IDF? Probably not.”
They may be emboldened by the failure of the US to deal with Muslims decisively when attacked and believe the myths they were told since birth that Israelis are American lapdogs. Boy are they in for a surprise.
I would not be surprised to find out Hillary, at the behest of the boy wonder, commanded the Israelis to, “sit, stay.” Many people put too much faith in US influence over Israel, IMHO. If faced with destruction, why would they care what we would do to them IF they survived? I think the phrase, “Never again,” says it all.
I think some of it’s pretty simple. MB has finally got “there”, there being in power, and wants to stay there. Neuter your only major opponent(military) a sop could be the reoccupation of the Sinai. The Judiciary will be a Potempkin village for as long as needed.
Morsi essentially dictated to Clinton who then pled with Israel. The Obamaites are desperate not to lose the good “optics” of Egypt. Israel may now think it has a green light on Iran. If they trust this Administration again they are fools. But move on Iran they must and soon. Deal with Iran, knock off Assad, and isolate Hezbollah very tempting. They may think that Washington has hand cuffed itself this time. Regardless something gotta give and as stated once started who knows!
“So the brotherhood has taken over the army” Not sure that matters at the moment. The Army proved it wasn’t going to shoot down citizens for the Generals, there is no reason to assume the will start wholesale murder for the MB.
The future is subject to change, which ranks up there with girls are different from boys as an inane statement.
No, If the military wants to do the MB, they will use special ops guys. No way a bunch of amateurs like the MB will stop them. The blowback will get interesting.
All you, let them kill each other guys will be very happy when Egypt goes the way of Lebanon.
That will take the pressure off Israel. With Syria a smoking pile of rubble and Egyptians slaughtering each other, the IAF can have a go at Iran.
What’s been holding them back is that F-16′s have small bomb loads when they have to fly that far. They will need half their air force to even put a dent in Iran. Something 4 B-2′s could accomplish without any major problems. The IDF depends on the IAF so much that without it, they would have trouble stopping an attack from Egypt. With the MB and the Army trading shots, that won’t be an issue.
“The US may be the “great satan”, but they admire our Democracy and basic freedoms – this is what they want.”
Maybe that’s why the reemergence of the hijab has followed muslims into western democracies like a battle standard. 30 years ago it was more or less a non-issue. Now it is a “human-right”. When muslims start demonstrating a tender mercy for human life over their thin-skinned outrages to other cultural practices and beliefs I’ll believe that they want democracy and basic freedoms. I don’t doubt that they’d take it if offered and give it lip service, I just doubt that it can happen without a unique muslim identity… whatever that is.
s @ 31: What’s been holding them back is that F-16′s have small bomb loads when they have to fly that far. They will need half their air force to even put a dent in Iran. Something 4 B-2′s could accomplish without any major problems.
No attack by Israel on Iran is going to depend much on F-16s. I don’t wonder if Israel has a couple of modified 747s ready to go just for bombing. But your post reminds me of something else, on checking the map: chaos in Syria may provide Israel with 500 miles of open highway in the general direction of Iran.
However it’s still hugely problematic. If the UN promised to let Israel fly anything they wanted back and forth for a week unmolested, I’m not sure what they could do or if they should try it. Israel requires some major allies to attempt anything other than nuking Tehran, and for better or worse I can’t see them doing that as a first strike, and that still wouldn’t shut down the Iranian nuke program.
The threat of mass starvation hangs over Egypt. Their only lifeline so far has been the Saudis. The Saudis are not fond of the MB or the Arab Spring.
Debate moderators:
It is generally acknowledged that the sole debate in the 1980 election turned the tide for Reagan. I believe that the Dems would desperately like to avoid the debates. The issue of the moderators would give them an excuse to back out.
Romney has studied the primary debates and taken note of Gingrich’s handling of the moderators. He has already used this technique:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/07/27/romney-calls-brian-williams-a-boring-white-guy/
“Please don’t throw me in that briar patch”.
IT’S A SAD DAY WHEN A GENERAL HAS TO BEG FOR MORSI
As the MB takes Hill’s kissies
Egypt’s soldiers now are Sisi’s
Which is why the IDF now has a smile
And since Barack has no spine I
Think that we’ll soon see the Sinai
Be the road the IDF takes to the Nile
As the Islamists take over
Promising a life of clover
All the while forbidding girls to go to school
And the country falls to ruin
From the royal all ‘round screwin’
Up by Barack and his Sec of Stately fool
Not to worry they’re in duck mode
So they’ll send them by the truck load
Money that we taxpayers will gladly pay
Yes we know what Egypt’s doing
They are billing and they’re couping
But it all will end come this Election Day
“and that still wouldn’t shut down the Iranian nuke program.”
Shutting down the Iranian nuke program is a political objective. The only way to accomplish it directly with military assets would be with nukes and that is probably not a good idea. It opens a can of worms best left closed.
Indirectly, you force the Mad Dog Mullahs to choose between having a 3rd world sh1thole for a country or mounds of rubble. The program can be halted by military assets for a limited time. A couple of years but if the MDM really want to they can rebuild. Of course, Israel can redestroy faster then Iran can rebuild. What I was trying to express is that all Israel can do is mount raids. They will lose pilots in the process.
The USA can wipe out the Iranian air defence and turn the whole nation into a no-fly zone. Then we can destroy whatever we want to. With the new 200 lb SDB PGM, we can even do it with a minimum of civilian casualties. The B-2 can carry around 200 SDB’s per sortie. They don’t miss so that means 200 targets destroyed. IF 200 lbs isn’t enough, carry a mixed load of 100 SDB’s and 20 2,000lber’s. or 40 500lber’s. After a couple of days there will be no AD left in Iran. Then we send in the B-1B’s. A ‘Bone’ carries twice as much as a B-2.
Then there will be no rebuilding. When that truck pulls up to a construction site, a satellite spots it and a bomb arrives. End of construction project. Plus we take down the power grid and that’s the end of enrichment. knock down the bridges and blow the railroad tunnels and no food moves from the countryside to the cities. That means the cities empty out. The people either leave or starve to death. That includes the Mullahs. Either way the city is empty.
Let the Iranians eat their nukes.
Aug 17th is the Pussy Riot trial. Support freedom. Support Pussy Riot.
“The State Department is acting like there’s nothing to worry about, so either they are completely clueless”
I’ll take completely clueless for 200 Alex, er….Richard.
The State department has been completely clueless for at least 2 centuries. And counting.
ON a positive note, they never start more then one war per generation.
Haji can’t shoot.
This paragraph appears in the text of McCarthy’s speech: “Islamic supremacism is an ideology, not a religion. It is a totalitarian social system that would govern every aspect of life down to the granular level — economic, financial, social, political, military, familial, dietary, issues of crime-and-punishment, even matters of hygiene.”
It would be silly and wrong to suggest that Political Correctness has anything at all to do with the origins of Islam, Islamicism or Sharia and I am not suggesting that. Even so doesn’t PC, like Sharia, aspire to affect every aspect of life down to the granular level — economic, financial, social, political, military, familial, dietary, issues of crime-and-punishment, even matters of hygiene?
Juxtaposing Sharia and PC, on the surface at least, appears to show a big overlap in their effect. Should Political Correctness be renamed “Socialist Sharia”? Or am I just being silly and wrong?
Walt, rhyming doing and couping impressed the heck out of me.
All totalitarianisms are the essentially the same, even though they take different forms. Instead of the muttawa we have speech code enforcers. In place of the Koran there is the PC/Green religion. In place of holy men we have celebrities and annointed cultural leaders. They have dietary rules we have dietary rules. They have castes where we have ethnic groups.
In all totalitarian systems nothing is impossible. They are all of them miracle workers. We all know that white people can be made into native Americans; and Asians can be made into white people and Republican blacks can be made into white people and white Presidents can be made in to black people. People with no transcripts can be constitutional scholars. Depressions can be cured by pretending we are about to be invaded by space aliens and so forth and so on.
Those who would pour scorn Muslims who walk round and round a black stone should consider that Islam has nothing on the prodigies routinely conjured by political correctness.
In my view they are welcome to it. If people want to perform their rituals at the recycle bin, and confess their errors at criticism self criticism sessions or spend their lives examining the doctrinal mysteries of media studies, why let them do it. All that I ask is they leave me alone. But there’s the rub. Every totalitarian system requires that the world be subordinated to it. No space must outside their power. The Islamization of the world and the PC’ization of the world must continue apace. Neither will yield.
That makes fugitives of all the poor slobs who want to start a barbecue on Saturday or eat transfat fried chicken every now and again. The ones who pay off the true believers in the hope the will go away. But they always come back do because they’re not content with the tribute; they won’t settle for less than our souls. Why they want it only God — there I said it — knows. They want us, not just part of us, but every fiber of our beings for no other reason than to possess it.
And they will never, ever stop. All that we can hope for us to reach the end of our lives before they can grab us. They are welcome to my carcass. But while I live, I would prefer to be my own man.
Egypt is on the verge of starvation, and its military is still weak. Its only asset is the Suez Canal, which can be closed. The Aswan Dam can also be turned to ruble. The Muslim Brotherhood operates in a mental bubble, as does our current marxist U.S. government.
Obama and H. Clinton are known liars, so it doesn’t matter what they say about anything. They both despise America.They are both on the financial take, so they’re probably acting as enemy agents for a fee.
Did I miss anything? When we try to analyze who may have said what to whom, we’re pretending that these people are rational actors. Most of us on this thread probably agree that Obama and Clinton are sociopaths with their various fantasy agendas. Morsi, of course, is a vicious Muslim idiot. We already know that he’ll do the wrong thing.
Wretchard at #39 . . . I wrote my #40 while you were writing #39. I think we’re on the same page. In my #40 I almost wrote what I really thought, which is, we need to take these monsters seriously and be ready to destroy them, as necessary. But that’s a jump too far ahead, given the current state of affairs. One has to see events play out. I’ve always taken your “Three Conjectures” very seriously.
Now I need to check out the idea that the Muslims caused the end of the western Roman empire. That’s a viewpoint I haven’t seen before.
The latest example of how the Dems are inexorably selling Israel down the river.
And why shouldn’t they? Regardless of how palpably distasteful Israel is to Dear Leader and increasing numbers of Dem officials, the votes keep coming.
Millions of African-American children wallow in absolutely disgraceful urban schools, which are wholly-owned subdivisions of the Democrat Party. Result: generation after generation of lost boys and girls and 90+% support for the Dems. The votes keep coming.
With 70+% support for the Dems from American Jews, why would they do anything but watch the fires burn in the Middle East?
The MB in Egypt, al Qaeda in Syria, the Bomb in Iran…but the votes keep coming.
Rykehaven,
I’m taking my “grubby finger” and also pointing at Lebanon as another example – where the Israelis clearly ran into stronger resistance than they expected. I have worked with the Israeli military in the past, and have the utmost respect for them. But when you start assigning them super-powers, you are setting them up for failure. Which they cannot afford. And I never claimed that the U.S. Intel was better than Israeli. So STFU.
For those of you that claim the USA has no dog in the fighting in the Arab world, read this;
“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an
inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly affects all indirectly.”
-Martin Luthor King, Jr.
Letter from a jail in Birmingham
Any chance of America nudging Egypt into an outcome that doesn’t leave rivers of blood in the street lies in Syria.
While I have no basic problem with killing Muslims, death is pretty permanent. Options are fairly limited after killing someone. It would be smarter to try something else first, since we can’t do it after. If it does get down to killing, do it smart.
Rykehaven, if you don’t know who Caroline Glick, the former intelligence advisor to Netanyahu, is, you don’t know much.
The idea that Israel was aware that the Egyptians were preparing to attack in 1973 is just bent. Try telling that to the guys who were sitting in the bunkers on the east bank of the Suez.
I know Israeli Air Force officers who didn’t know jack. They were the guys who rolled in in their Skyhawk training aircraft with crayon circles painted on their wind screens for aiming points. I know IDF army officers who had to commandeer buses and vans off the street to get their people to the front with nothing but what they carried on their backs, and you want to tell us that the Israelis were not surprised?
By the way, the IAF has told the IDF that they cannot expect any CAS for the first three days of any future war. The IDF is training and equipping for that scenario.
As for the Morsi coup, there is no Egyptian parliament, there is just Morsi and his guys. Egypt is a dictatorship as of yesterday. Morsi has appointed his own close circle to re-write the Egyptian Constitution. He will also make the rules for any elections to be held. He is shutting down independent newpapers as of now.
Every war after 1948, the Israeli FO and politicians have temporized and agonized over what to do until their backs were against the wall. This time will be no different, IMO, but they better get it right the first try, this time.
On the other hand a new player has stepped into the arena. Russia has just bought the rights to develop the eastern Med oil and gas holdings of Cyprus and Greece. There is endless speculation on what this could ultimately mean. For one thing, the Turks have certainly been gaffed by the deal. The maneuvering of the Russians against the Turks is a hidden subtext of the current goings on.
#44 stoicheion,
I suggest you read Spengler. At this point any outcome that doesn’t leave rivers of blood in Egypt is unlikely, unless of course Obama decides to gift the muslim brotherhood with billions of American dollars. Which I wouldn’t put past him.
That said perhaps the muslim brotherhood in Egypt does in fact read Spengler- or has found someone able to do basic math- and has dimly sensed their conundrum.
So why not go to war with Israel? Maybe they’ll win, and they can blame the death and starvation on the hated Joooos. Perhaps afterwards the Saudis or the Yurpeans or Obama will send them money and food and all will be well- thanks to Allah, of course.
#28 Charles,
Thanks for the link. I’ve read the book by Bryan Ward-Perkins- the Fall of Rome- mentioned in the Amazon reviews for Mohammed and Charlemagne Revisited and based on that I was initially going to comment that blaming Islam for the fall of Rome was quite a stretch.
But reading about the book it seems a plausible theory, and I look forward to reading it.
Well the IDF can laugh at us (US) we got Russian sub killers patrolling our own shores (right off one of our boomer base) and we don’t know it until they leave the region… Ya our military is badly degraded and they’re gonna carve another big chunk out of it… Hey don’t worry with all those UAV watching for Cattle poop in the mid-west we ain’t got nothing to worry about!
Wretchard and others. If you haven’t already, find and read a copy of Justinians Flea. The writers hypothesis is that the Roman Empire fell to the Muslim invasion because it had been depopulated by the first outbreaks of bubonic plague about 550-600 in the Levant. The Muslims were amazed that when they took a town it would offer almost no resistance. Up to 40% of the population had died in most cases. The flea carrier had come with the rats on dhows from India across the Indian Ocean and up the Red Sea to Egypt. So the Arab traders had unknowingly used bio warfare to open the way for Muslim conquest.
In my estimation Egypt is lost and will at some point will explode because they can’t feed their population with US wheat handouts.
As to who owns Obamma and Hildabeast. Obummers 2008 campaign credit card operation was set up to allow donations with no track back. I suspect huge amounts of money came from mid-East sources via the credit card portal and his mid-east anti-Israli agenda is payoff for those campaign donations. Follow the money guys.
28. Charles
OT:
Barron Boddissy over at the Gates of Vienna has a review of a book that asks an interesting question
http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/08/who-really-killed-pax-romana.html
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Who Really Killed the Pax Romana?
………………….
Mohammed & Charlemagne Revisited by Emmet Scott
Throughout the coastal areas surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, archaeologists have uncovered a layer of subsoil that was deposited over a period of three hundred years beginning in the middle of the seventh century AD.
This stratum, named the “Younger Fill” by the geologist Claudio Vita-Finzi, covers the ruins of all the major cities and settlements that were established along the Mediterranean littoral during classical antiquity. It stands as a coda to Graeco-Roman civilization. For three centuries after the year 650 the archaeology of the region is all but barren. Wastelands or severely diminished primitive settlements have replaced the formerly great cities of the Roman Empire and the Near East.
One might surmise that the Younger Fill is the result of some yet unidentified climatic trauma that afflicted the entire Mediterranean basin. However, the same phenomenon has been observed in an entirely different watershed: Mesopotamia, the land drained by the Tigris and Euphrates in what is now Iraq, and also including the coastal regions adjoining the Persian Gulf.
During the same period — from the middle of the seventh century until the middle of the tenth — archaeology in the entirety of Europe and the Middle East virtually disappears. This civilizational interruption might be thought a result of the Dark Ages in Europe, except for the fact that it includes areas of the Middle East which were never part of the Roman Empire, and where advanced cultures independent of Rome and Greece had flourished.
What all these areas have in common, of course, is that they were conquered by the Arabs during the initial period of Islamic expansion, when the Near East, North Africa, and Iberia were subjugated within the space of less than a century.
Islam came to the Mediterranean and left as its principal legacy the Younger Fill.
# 48 Docbill
Research suggests that the plague outbreak of the 6th century was every bit as nasty as that of the 14th century, if not more so. Catastrophe by David Keys posits that the plague was the result of enhanced conditions for flea reproduction, and hence plague transmission, due to lowered temperatures worldwide. He makes an interesting case that the drop in temperature was the result of a mega eruption of the Volcano Krakatoa in the year 535 A.D. Research along those lines makes it clear that the 1883 event was hardly the first mega eruption of this dangerous volcano.
Also, it seems that the early sixth century was a time of turmoil around the world. While Keys may not have the last word, his hypothesis is worth looking into.
I vote clueless. Clueless on the Soviet Union at its demise, clueless about the Indian nuclear program, clueless about north vs south in Sudan (my personal observation during the early 80′s), clueless about…
I think quite a few people, from both agencies, would be very surprised to learn this.
#44 stoicheion,
“I suggest you read Spengler.”
I have. I’m no where near as impressed as you seem to be. Plus he is an echo box. When faced with facts contrary to his opinion, he deletes the post. Hardly the mark of an honest broker.
@James Pate
Rykehaven, if you don’t know who Caroline Glick, the former intelligence advisor to Netanyahu, is, you don’t know much.
Taking your facts at face-value, Caroline Glick’s credentials are neither at issue nor are they impressive (at least not to me).
Contrary to old catechisms, it is not “who you know”, or “what you know”, but “what you didn’t know” that advances that kind of career. Politics and political survival skills decide whether you’re an “intelligence advisor”, not field skills, technical talent or powers of insight.
Maybe I am misapplying American professional standards to Israeli but I stick with my instincts: A high-level political officer is NOT considered in a favorable light, let alone an “impressive record” in the professional defense and intelligence setting, at least none that I’m aware of.
If it were, General Petraeus would be considered a demi-god in the US combat arms community. He is not.
Everyone is familiar with the universal language of CYA, “This was a surprise catastrophe because we have to save our careers”. It is the lament of the political creature trying to stay on top after being exposed. Whatever it is, it is NOT ignorance. Rather, it is politically expedient “ignorance”, the kind where the facts were never in dispute but the interpretation and decision-making was incompetent.
For good or ill, this is why dead wood floats to the top of officialdom. The real talent stays submerged under the surface, in the field, unnamed and unknown except to the few who are themselves compartmentalized, because it prevents their exposure to useless people like “intelligence advisors” and because their record is politically toxic.
So Caroline Glick was apparently so clean, she made it to the top. And some people think this provides “credibility”.
Unfortunately, I only know people most have never heard of, and who would be publicly crucified if they tried to become “intelligence advisors”.
Caroline Glick, the former intelligence advisor to Netanyahu?
Yeah, I’m sorry, but this is not as impressive as you make it sound.
@James Pate
The idea that Israel was aware that the Egyptians were preparing to attack in 1973 is just bent. Try telling that to the guys who were sitting in the bunkers on the east bank of the Suez.
I know Israeli Air Force officers who didn’t know jack. They were the guys who rolled in in their Skyhawk training aircraft with crayon circles painted on their wind screens for aiming points. I know IDF army officers who had to commandeer buses and vans off the street to get their people to the front with nothing but what they carried on their backs, and you want to tell us that the Israelis were not surprised?
Again, I’m going to take your own facts at face-value for now: in the same way that I think you misinterpret Caroline Glick’s credentials, I get the feeling you probably have a bunch of widely available “facts” about Yom Kippur but are misinterpreting them.
By your standard, the Iraqi Baathists were “surprised” when the US Marine Corps and Army invaded Iraq in March of 2003. By your standrd, the build up in Egypt was completely invisible to the Israeli Military in the same way that the movement of supplies and materiel from Diego Garcia to, and build up in, Kuwait was never given a moment’s notice by the Baathists. Was the escape of foreign capital and personnel also completely misconstrued for “business as usual” by everyone in both the Israeli defense organization in 1973 and its Iraqi counterpart in 2003? Furthermore, Iraq’s Information Minister publicly stated that the Americans were not rolling through Baghdad…which I suppose is proof positive that the Iraqi leaders were totally unaware of the American presence?
This is – of course – entirely absurd.
You shouldn’t even need a carer in the military to understand that it lacks common sense; the facts are in plain sight but your interpretation is way off the mark.
At risk of the accusation of ad hominem, the part about individual Israeli officers is similarly amateurish.
“Shocked” Iraqi and Israeli personnel who gripe about not being given all the information is common and in some ways understandable. I’VE DONE IT. But the standard for “surprise”, whether strategic or operational, is NOT “some soldiers, sailors and airmen are not told the exact distribution, disposition and objective of the enemy at all times.” Don’t dumb this definition down by retreaating to “tactical surprise” or “shock”, which inevitably happens in every damn war. An attacking enemy ALWAYS has the initiative at first.
No intelligence network is capable of knowing every niggling detail about the enemy at all times, not even the enemy itself. Nor does it need to in order to extrapolate the idea that an army amassing on your border for the past few months is bad news [for you]. You can draw important conclusions just by knowing your own capabilities and vulnerabilities – no need to even look at an enemy’s disposition – it’s basics.
Neither the Israeli Ops/Intel nor even Saddam’s Ops/Intel were that ignorant of the basics. And neither are we, nor I suspect are the Israelis today. I am not equating stupidity with malice. I am simply refusing to excuse incompetence by crediting a facade of ignorance. I am also observing that the kind of ignorance you’re implying is totally unrealistic.
Every political and administrative hack has their own reasons for pretending to be unrealistically ignorant. I am not accusing them of being smart, I’m accusing them of covering their own butts after the SHTF. It has nothing to do with professional analysis, and everything to do with petty CYA politics in the workplace.
To use one of the most famous “intelligence failures” of all time:
Jondoe: “We’re beating the Soviets and winning the Cold War. I need more funding to bribe people in Karachi.”
Condy: “The Soviet Union is invincible. You people are crazy.”
<The Soviet Union dissolves>
Jondoe: “Congratulations on your promotion.”
Condy: “Yeah, my boss wants me to fix corrupt people like you in the defense intelligence community who can’t even envision that the Soviet Union would fall.”
Jondoe: “Uhhh….Well, actually…”
Condy: “NOBODY KNEW. It was a complete surprise! …And what do you have in your hand?”
Jondoe: “Oh, this?…It’s my resignation.”
@James Pate
By the way, the IAF has told the IDF that they cannot expect any CAS for the first three days of any future war. The IDF is training and equipping for that scenario.
I want to say something childish like: Why does this concern America? But I won’t.
Even assuming face-value, this isn’t even close to being specific enough for me to run with. Scenario? Against what? The mortar and rocket teams? Against the Egyptian Army? On what and who’s time-table? Are you talking about a campaign of an expeditionary nature or something more limited and punitive? Does this affect rotor wing and fixed wing equally? Is it a political restriction? Why 3 days? Why not 2? Why not 4? Why would this be public knowledge? Why is this important? Last I heard, artillery is still King and CAS is not quite continuous fire nor continuous aim calibrated. I know piddling about Israel’s warplans but your guns and launchers I’m sure are pre-sighted on likely approaches and if anything, your IAF is better used as counter-counter-battery fire and interdiction beyond artillery range. This is not the empty quarter you’re defending after all.
On second thought: Why does this concern America?
As for the Morsi coup, there is no Egyptian parliament, there is just Morsi and his guys. Egypt is a dictatorship as of yesterday. Morsi has appointed his own close circle to re-write the Egyptian Constitution. He will also make the rules for any elections to be held. He is shutting down independent newpapers as of now.
Egypt was always a dictatorship, even after the elections. It was never otherwise.
I suspect the first impulse to a political impasse for the average Egyptian is much like the average “Iraqi”: draw tribal lines, find a strongman, take up weapons and slogans, and apportion power at gunpoint according to the spoils of war. If you removed the US and ISF guns supporting the ballot box in Iraq, I seriously doubt the “Iraqis” would rally around election polls.
That attitude is the central impediment to a sustainable Egyptian Republic as it is to an Iraqi Republic, one that only a generational change has a chance of altering. Had the United States simply held an election in Post-War Japan or Germany and immediately left them to their own devices, both the Japanese and the Germans would have defaulted back to their old habits.
On the other hand a new player has stepped into the arena. Russia has just bought the rights to develop the eastern Med oil and gas holdings of Cyprus and Greece. There is endless speculation on what this could ultimately mean. For one thing, the Turks have certainly been gaffed by the deal. The maneuvering of the Russians against the Turks is a hidden subtext of the current goings on.
Good for Israel, but take it from an American: don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.
@Kirk Parker
The CIA is a creature of the State Department.
I think quite a few people, from both agencies, would be very surprised to learn this.
Sometimes I wonder if “playing dumb” is all these people ever know.
Rykehaven (56),
No, I think rather you have to defend your assertion here (that “the CIA is a creature of the State Department“.)
Doc @48…
The strongest theory turns on tree ring evidence: circa 536-539AD agriculture collapsed worldwide in the moderate latitudes.
Krakatoa had just blown up, 535AD, — in a greater display than 1883 — much, much greater.
This ended the ‘Petrans’ — causing them to move south into the Arabian mountains — the only water left — at Mecca and Medina.
Krakatoa is almost certainly the source of the sacred rock — recovered from the desert circa the great upheaval.
In 1883, Krakatoa was heard as far east as Africa. One must assume that the 535AD eruption was even louder, longer.
Thusly, the rock cult was established, and urban life was shattered,
Roman accounts tell of staggering fatalities so great that prior historians refused to believe such tribulations.
However, Asian accounts dovetail with the Roman’s, with specific descriptions of Krakatoa blowing its lid.
Mo’ grew up in a world just recovering from being ‘nuked’ — hence his mobile theft squad faced no proper organized resistance. State power had been utterly shattered. This nightmare was why the dark ages were so dark.
In northern latitudes, rainfall was more intense, so that privation was not too extreme.
The Biblical inference that the fisherman is ones ultimate fallback provider is but a hint that this travail was not the first of its kind.
That disease piggybacked upon Krakatoa is a forgone conclusion.
Tree-ring stress globally cannot be dismissed. Krakatoa was a mega-killer.
Its buddy, Toba, the world’s largest super-volcano, almost did in all of humanity. This is where end-of-the-world tales have their root.
blert.
Couple of questions: Is there direct evidence Krak blew, or is it inferred?
What is the connection between Krak blowing and lack of precip?
Is there evidence from the Americas?
Understand cooling means less evap, thus less precip. What is the cooling evidence?
“Catastrophe” rocketed to fame as a result of a PBS series which devoted two one hour episodes to its thesis: that an eruption of what was probably a monstrous earlier version of the volcano Krakatoa created weather disruptions and tidal phenomena which wiped out many Classical civilizations, brought on LITERAL “dark ages” in many societies, and helped to create the Medieval world and lay the foundations of the modern.
The Keys theory is so widely accepted now (just five years after the publication of the book) because it is not only backed by masses of contemporary documentary evidence, but also because it explains, better than any other theory, the global decline of civilization in the 6th Century of the Common Era. In mathematical terms, it is “elegant.” It is a latter-day Occam’s Razor cutting through generations of theories based upon individual cultures or isolated events to show that they could all have at their heart a single event which triggered, as the title says, global “Catastrophe.” (Definitely with a capital “C”!)
Keys uses Chinese records to show that a loud bang was heard over hundreds of square miles around 535, and that this was followed by a fall of yellow ash. Other records, from Japan and parts of modern Indonesia, support this occurence. Keys, after weighing and rejecting alternative theories, suggests that only a massive volcanic eruption could be the culprit for the event recorded by the Chinese, and shows, decade by decade, using historical records, dendrochronological (tree ring) records, ice samples, and other measurements, that what happened was no ordinary eruption, but possibly the largest volcanic eruption in history, which darkened skies around the world, creating a “volcanic winter” which brought famine and plague in its wake. Amazingly, he does it in plain, easy-to-read language, a hallmark of historiographic greatness.
cut & paste from Amazon reviewer
http://www.amazon.com/Catastrophe-Investigation-Origins-Modern-Civilization/dp/0345408764
David Keys is the foremost proponent of Krakatoa as the tragic trigger.
PBS ran a two hour video on this about seven years ago.
Tree ring data looks solid.
Petrans taking their longer alphabet south to Mecca neatly explains the oldest islamic writings — something otherwise a complete puzzle.
Indeed, other than this eruption, no one can explain why the Petrans just up and left — in a planned departure, BTW.
Wretchard at 39, more succinctly:
Once you pay the Danegeld, you never get rid of the Dane.