Trouble Along the Med
The shootdown of a Turkish F4 in the waters off the Syrian coastal town of Latakia raises tensions in a country already at the boiling point. But the Syran air defense is not the only one watching the skies. Bill Gertz writes that “U.S. intelligence agencies are closely watching Israel’s military for signs it will conduct strikes on Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons, amid concerns the deadly nerve agents could fall under the control of Hezbollah or al Qaeda terrorists, U.S. officials said.”
However, other U.S. officials said special operations forces are prepared to take action inside Syria in the event the regime falls and the country spirals further into chaos. The teams would seek to secure or destroy stockpiles of chemical arms to keep them from being taken over by terrorists. Hezbollah has been very active in Syria, and there are reports that al Qaeda terrorists have moved into Syria during the current crisis …
The New York Times reported Thursday that CIA operatives are working in southern Turkey to coordinate foreign assistance to Syrian rebel forces.
The situation in Syria has reached the point where large scale military operations are now possible between the opposing sides, operations which can only be undertaken with support for each side by outside powers. Joseph Holliday at the Institute for War writes:
Syria’s maturing insurgency has begun to carve out its own de facto safe zones around Homs city, in northern Hama, and in the Idlib countryside. The Assad regime seized key urban centers in Damascus, Homs, and Idlib during offensives in February and March 2012. However, the rebels successfully withdrew into the countryside, where they operate with impunity. As of June 2012, the opposition controls large swaths of Syria’s northern and central countryside.
The Assad regime does not have the capacity to continue offensive operations while holding the key terrain it cleared in the spring. Currently, the regime is postured to hold Damascus, Homs, and Idlib, but not to defeat the insurgency that prospers in the countryside. In order to direct a new offensive against rebel strongholds outside of Homs city and in the Idlib countryside, the regime will have to consolidate forces for a large operation, which could compromise regime control of the urban areas. Increased direct military assistance from Russia or Iran could substantially mitigate this risk to the regime.
Syria’s loyalist security forces will have to balance competing priorities in the summer of 2012. First, they must ensure that fighting does not spread further in northern Aleppo and coastal Latakia provinces. Second, they must regain control of rebel strongholds to the north and south of Homs city. Finally, they must disrupt de facto rebel safe zones in northern Hama and the Idlib countryside.
Holliday writes that the rebels are slowly gaining the upper hand on Assad. The problem is that the rebels are also fighting among themselves. The challenge for the US, Holliday says, is to make sure that the successor regime is friendly to the United States.
The conflict in Syria is approaching a tipping point at which the insurgency will control more territory than the regime. Neither the perpetuation nor the removal of Assad will guarantee Syria’s future stability. In order to prevent Syrian state failure, the insurgency must mature into a professional armed force that can promote and protect a stable political opposition.
Increased external support for Syria’s insurgency has contributed to its success on the battlefield, but the resulting competition for resources has encouraged radicalization and infighting. This ad hoc application of external support has undermined the professionalization of the opposition’s ranks. Carefully managing this support could reinforce responsible organizations and bolster organic structures within the Syrian opposition.
The priority for U.S. policy on Syria should be to encourage the development of opposition structures that could one day establish a monopoly on the use of force.
Reuters reports that the regional powers are now worried that the fighting in Syria will spill over into neighboring countries — Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.
“Our main concern is the spillover of the crisis into neighboring countries,” Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told a news conference with his Swedish, Bulgarian and Polish counterparts in Baghdad …
If the conflict were to slide into an all-out sectarian or civil war, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey would all be affected, he said. “This is not an excuse to do nothing about Syria, no. But there will be an impact.”
In that context the shootdown of the Turkish jet provides yet another vector for the involvement of outside powers in the Syrian conflict. If Turkey gets more deeply involved the question will be what its goals are and who will ride in on its coat-tails
The New York Times, citing sources in Israel, write that Israeli officials now believe that a Third Intifada is imminent because the Palestinian Authority itself was at a dead-end. “The root cause of this instability is that Palestinians have lost all hope that Israel will grant them a state.”
These failures have left Palestinians who hope to make present conditions untenable for Israel with only two options: popular protest and armed resistance. The first option faces enormous obstacles because of political divisions between Hamas in Gaza and Mr. Abbas’s Fatah in the West Bank. Each faction regards mass mobilization as a potential first step to its overthrow, as well as a means of empowering a new generation of leaders at the expense of existing ones.
If mass demonstrations erupted in the West Bank, Israel would ask Palestinian security forces to stop any protests near soldiers or settlers, forcing them to choose between potentially firing on Palestinian demonstrators or ending security cooperation with Israel, which Mr. Abbas refuses to do. As he knows and fears, mass protests could quickly become militarized by either side. For that reason, his government has offered little more than rhetorical support for the small weekly protests so beloved by foreign activists and the Western press, and has actively prevented demonstrators from approaching any Jewish settlements.
The second option is armed confrontation. Although there is widespread apathy among Palestinians, and hundreds of thousands are financially dependent on the Palestinian Authority’s continued existence, a substantial number would welcome the prospect of an escalation, especially many supporters of Hamas, who argue that violence has been the most effective tactic in forcing Israel and the international community to act.
The desperation of the Palestinian Authority is another way of saying that the Israeli-Arab conflict is no longer the dominant narrative of the Middle East. The Arab Spring has now shifted the basic fault line to the Sunni-Shia schism, with the conflict between old line strongmen and newly restive populations as the undercard.
As that drama plays out, the last Jews are holding out in Tunisia. Michael Totten reports that in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, they have lost the traditional protection of the former regime. Facing an uncertain future they are too cautious to even speak out. They seem to sense, perhaps guided an instinct formed by centuries of survival, that now is the time to make themselves as unnoticeable as possible.
“How has the situation here changed for the Jews of Tunisia,” I [Totten] said, “since the fall of Ben Ali?”
“Nothing has changed,” the rabbi said. “It’s the same situation since Ben Ali’s fall.”
“This is a country ruled by an Islamist government,” Armin said. “Do you feel that presents any problems for the Jewish community?
“There’s no problem between the government and the Jewish community,” the rabbi said.
“But I have seen photographs of Salafists with their black flag in front of the synagogue here intimidating people,” I said. “Was that a one-time event, or are you worried they might become increasingly dangerous?”
“They don’t bother me,” the rabbi said. “They lived with us before. That incident was their business, not ours.”
What kind of answers were these?
Ahmed, our Tunisian translator and fixer, had a question of his own for the rabbi.
“Does it bother you that some people want Islamic law in the constitution?” he said.
“There’s no problem at all,” the rabbi said, “because the constitution is not written.”
“He doesn’t want to answer,” Ahmed said quietly to Armin and me as he leaned back in his chair.
I’m not even sure why the rabbi agreed to be interviewed. He answered almost all of our questions this way, as did his assistant. They answered as though the entire Arab world would judge them for what they said and pounce if they uttered a peep of complaint. They reminded me of citizens of police states who are asked on the record what they think of the government.
It is wait and see. And that is perhaps how it is all across the region. Nobody is sure what will happen next, perhaps not even the White House. Events in the last two years have consigned the dominant diplomatic paradigm in the Middle East to the scrap heap. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, so long considered the key to creating peace in the Middle East is now revealed as nothing but an irrelevant distraction.
The main event is not now between the broader Arab/Muslim world and a minority population — the Jews — but between major factions in the Arab/Muslim world itself. It is almost as if the Old Ottoman Empire, long believed to have been dead and buried, has risen in its several pieces from the grave. Arguably the 9/11 attacks on New York were the first major sign that this shift was taking place. Now the West must deal with it; Europe from its position of collapse and Washington, from its position of absent-mindedness.
Lee Smith, writing in the Weekly Standard, notes that the administration took itself almost entirely off the board in the region in what may be regarded by future historians as the one of the worst cases of mis-deployment in strategic history. It then proceeded to compound the error by putting the foxes in charge of the henhouse.
Let’s look at Obama’s Middle East policy the way Tehran must. Obama withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq and has scheduled a similar exit from Afghanistan, exposing the region to Iranian influence that the United States will have little ability to check. Instead the administration has left U.S. interests in the hands of largely incapable allies. The Obama administration did sell $30 billion worth of F-15s to Saudi Arabia—as if hoping that with enough hardware Riyadh would be capable of defending itself.
But consider how the White House has treated its regional partners when the going gets tough. During the course of the Arab Spring, Obama turned his back on Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, angering the rulers of Saudi Arabia, America’s key Gulf allies because they happen to sit on the world’s largest known reserves of oil. At the time that might have been defensible. However, now it simply looks incoherent. When Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who has plagued the Saudis for years, was targeted by a popular uprising, Obama did nothing to topple Iran’s lone Arab ally. Instead, he backed a Russian-inspired diplomatic process that has served only to buy Assad time—just as three rounds of nuclear talks have helped protect Iran from an Israeli strike. So the net effect of Obama’s Middle East strategy has been to protect Tehran’s regional security interests—Syria, Hezbollah, and the bomb.
The Washington Post editorial board writes today that the Obama administration is running the risk that radical elements will lead the Syrian War from the front if the US continues to lead from behind. “The longer the war lasts, the greater the chance that extremists will win. And it should consider what it will do if, as can be expected, the Assad regime mounts major new offensives against the rebel enclaves, using aircraft and unleashing the militias that have been committing massacres. To remain passive in such an instance should not be an option.”
But unfortunately doing nothing and waiting to take credit for whatever is ejected from the barroom brawl has been and remains a preferred administration policy strategy. What that passive inaction will do for the Western position in the Middle East is unknown, but the region will survive as it always has. It has endured worse folly in all these thousands of years, if you can believe it.
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“Holliday writes that the rebels are slowly gaining the upper hand on the rebels.”
you gotta rebel problem too
Here comes 0bama Jimmy Carter Iran Hostage desert fiscal…. Wonder how many brave Americans get it this time? Who doesn’t think Russians aren’t deployed in those area’s? Think they will stand by while American SOF come in….
What did that Phantom jet take a picture of that made it worth Syria shooting it down despite the political repercussion’s of doing so?
Syria allegedly has 1,000 metric tons of Chemical weapons, Sarin, Mustard and VX which the Israeli’s do not want to fall into the hands of terrorist along with the missiles to deliver them. The IAF wants to do an air strike, the US wants to insert Special Forces to capture and hold maybe destroy the stockpiles more safely.
charleswhite 2 The Russian’s no doubt will strike into NATO across the Fulda gap, why go into Syria when what ever happens after ya still got islam and islam hates you? To take down NATO you hit the Hague HQ strike at European targets they are the weakest link.
But unfortunately doing nothing and waiting to take credit for whatever is ejected from the barroom brawl has been and remains a preferred administration policy strategy.
Take a look at skinny-ass dope-fiend Obambus, do you think he steps into barroom brawls?
NYTimes: These failures have left Palestinians who hope to make present conditions untenable for Israel with only two options: popular protest and armed resistance.
Why speculate about what should be an empty set? How about some Palestinians who hope to live a quiet life, or (Allah forfend?) make peace with the Jews and be handed their own state with tremendous relief and billions of international gratitude. Just more anti-semitic radical agitation by the New York Slimes.
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As for the prospect of Israel raiding Syria to destroy nerve gas? Doubt it. At least not directly. Better to raid it by proxy, at worst send some cruise missiles after it if they are 100% certain that it exists, that they know where it is, and that it is vulnerable. The very discussion again seems like anti-semitic agitation, trying to push the whole thing off on the Joos.
Holliday: “The priority for U.S. policy on Syria should be to encourage the development of opposition structures that could one day establish a monopoly on the use of force.”
The US tried that before — he may be a bastard, but he is our bastard. The proto-Obaminoids did not like it then, won’t like it now.
Maybe Obambi’s paralysis is actually the best course of action possible for the US, in a world in which we have to be satisfied with the least unacceptable outcome. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
Syria is a harbinger for Europe. They were simply the weakest branch on the tree, and when the financial storm blew up theirs was the first regime to collapse as they ran out of money and could no longer pay off the competing factions that made up the ruling coalition. Approaching the end of their long slide down, Syria has become a hellish playground for the surrounding powers.
Greece has begun to slide down the same slope, and Spain is not far behind. Perhaps Italy will join them. The question is not who can remain solvent, but who has the military and clandestine strength to avoid proxy wars and bloodbath?
The arithmetic of reality is in the process of jumping from the ledger book to the Order of Battle, from bonds to battalions.
I am hopeful, given how this incompetent administration has “handled” (bungled) the Arab spring (along with the other Muslim sewers of Crapistan). Gone are the days when we can pretend we’re allies with the likes of a Saudi Arabia or a Turkey or an Iraq or an Afghanistan. The old, rancid, sophisticated approach required false and malignant constructs (allied with Saudi Arabia, the old Two State solution Two Step, allied with Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt) which entangled us with poisonous enemies posing as friends.
I hope the days are coming to an end when the vicious scum of Islam can take us for a ride. In a sweeping reversal, the asinine American policies which funneled trillions into the coffers of Islam have come a cropper, and it is no longer possible to pretend. The Muslims will increasingly show their evil hand, and the veils of money and the tissues of lies can no longer conceal that putrid monster.
Domestic Muslims, still attached in loyalty, blood, and ideology with their caveman brethren in those various sewers will also be outed. As the nukes proliferate, as the atrocities mount, we will have no choice but to take up arms against the House of Islam in order to destroy it. Just wait until a nuke or dirty bomb or two are detonated.
Thank you Obama! Your attempts to “fundamentally transform” our relationship with the Muslim world has yielded a miracle. You have accomplished, in your staggering stupidity and arrogance, what ten trillion more dollars, or a hundred thousand more schools and highways in Afganistan, or hundreds of thousands of US deaths trying to “win their hearts and minds” could never have done!
There are three major conflicts going on, which makes the situation extremely complex. The first, and least critical (because its resolution, in any way, will not affect the other two) is Islam vs the Jews. This is really just a part of The World vs The Jews, but the Muslims are particularly inclined to it.
The second is, as Wretchard pointed out, Shia vs Sunni Islam. This fight will not be ended by anyone except the Muslims, and they don’t seem to be fixin’ for reconciliation.
Finally, Islam vs Modernity. This isn’t the oldest fight, but right now it is the most aggravating. This is the danger to us. It causes an existential crisis for Islam, and one of the reactions is to try to destroy us Moderns. Then they can go back to the old civil war.
As for the Palestinians, the traditional way to gain national independence is to fight a war for it. But they don’t actually want to be autonomous. What they want is the UN to make Israel leave them alone, and the UN to protect them and let them play at being a country without any of the sovereign responsibility. They want to be like children.
“The root cause of this instability is that Palestinians have lost all hope that Israel will grant them a state.”
Oh horse feathers cubed! The Palestinians were offered a state in 1948. They refused. The problem is not that the Palestinians can’t get a state of their own. Everybody except the Palestinian wants them to have their own frigging state. The sacred goal for Arabs, Persians etc is to destroy the state of Israel, not to have a Palestinian state.
What language do they speak at the Institute of war? Tipping points; organic structures (built by hippies?); opposition structures that turn into monopolies; the regime is postured. Whatever else they do, there’s a lot of ugly semi-coherent writing going on at the Institute for War.
“Our main concern is the spillover of the crisis into neighboring countries,” Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told a news conference with his Swedish, Bulgarian and Polish counterparts in Baghdad …
Sweden, Bulgaria and Poland?
The Obama Keystone Kops are completely out of their depth but it’s a sticky slapstick mess with or without them. Problem is the consequences of this slapstick could be very dangerous.
Nero did have the benefit of a classical education.
The statement has two parts the NYT conflates. Is the US more concerned that Israel “will conduct strikes” or that “deadly nerve agents could fall under the control of Hezbollah or al Qaeda terrorists?” The two lead to diametrically different conclusions. Are we allied with or against Israel?
The way to prevent Palestinian violence from disrupting the efforts of Israel the Sunnis and the Europeans, in fact everyone but Iran and the Russians (assuming that China is taking the long view and will back any winner), is to increase the cost of disruption. The all carrot no stick policy has failed. As the Old Left used to say things, Objectively supporting this policy of paying the Palestinians to be peaceful and paying them more to be violent makes Obama and his EU allies agents of Iran and Russia.
The Assad regime is now in the same city bound posture that Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT was in at the middle of 1946. Who will prove to be the Mao of the rural insurgents preparing to swallow the urban armies? Is China advising this movement?
“But the Syran air defense is not the only one watching the skies.”
The skies watch back.
Half of terrorism is the terrorist, or any barbarian with survival issues. To be truly dangerous, he requires a second component, technology, that can only come from civilization. We plot and we agitate in order to make barbarians kill each other rather than us. It sounds reasonable (given the alternatives), but isn’t this why the fallen were sentenced to earth in the first place? The plan for Syria appears to be a reenactment taken straight from the Book of Enoch:
Very few men can forge the weapons they carry, or the computers they play with. It takes a whole culture to create chemical weapons and/or Apple computers. It takes many cultures, one might argue, to escape from this planet without also destroying ourselves.
The point? I’m not at all sure what the point is… it’s wait-and-see as Mr. F says. For the moment I am optimistic that the rabbi was being cool, not cautious in his answers.
The US upset the balance of power in the middle east by putting the shia in control of Iraq.
The Sunni want to restore that balance by putting the sunni in charge of syria.
“The challenge for the US, Holliday says, is to make sure that the successor regime is friendly to the United States.”
The United States is a nation. A Great nation. The only superpower. As a nation we have no friends. We have only interests. Strategic (long term) interests in Syria are the same as any other 3rd world despotism. Regime change in hope that consensual government(democracy) will break out. Tactical(short term within a decade) interests are cutting a few tentacles off of Iran. Starve Hezzboallah, let them wither on the vine by interdicting support from Iran. Buy a little breathing space for Lebanon.
Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither was the Republic of Korea or the Republic of China. Or the Philippines. All those democracies took decades to establish. All started with a despot.
So Mr. Holliday is dead wrong. He is also presetting conditions so as to leave no room for anything other then failure. All we need in Syria is a strongman that will keep his hands off Lebanon, not allow weapons to Hezzboallah to pass thru Syria and establish relatively benign relations with Israel. Perfect is the enemy of good enough. If the new strongman won’t meet these goals, JDAM him and see how the next one works out. When the strongmen get tired of living a month with a bullseye on their back, the people of Syria will hold elections, get an elected leader. One without a bullseye on his back.
It is in the USA’s interest to break the cycle of “one man, one vote, one time” that the Arab Spring is producing.
Cowards are being tied in knots by their fears. Raising levels of violence in the ME? Already happening. Can’t stop it, might as well win it. When it comes to kinetic energy, America has no peer. Our military superiority won’t last forever. We need to use it to provide air, water and sun for as many democracies as possible to grow.
The real advantage of “Stealth diplomacy” is that the despots have to get lucky EVERY time. The stealth bomber just needs to get luck once. Those sort of odds should make Assad consider beach front property on the Black Sea.
I love to read alternative history stories – and on occasion to write it, just for fun.
Imagine… A new Iraq serves as base for U.S. forces and joins them in an invasion to destroy the last refuge of the hated Baathists – Syria. U.S. supported rebel forces form a new government, which is recognized by the other Arab nations, NATO, the EU, and the UN.
Following the fall of the Assad regime, a weakened Iran lashes out, launching ballistic missiles, which are intercepted by U.S. and IDF missile defenses.
A joint U.S.-IDF strike force takes out all of Iran’s offensive capabilities. The Iranian opposition forces, long prepared for this moment, overthrow the mullahs.
And dammit, we were THERE! And then came Hope and Change, destroying hope for the sake of change.
It’s as if Patton got to the Meuse and was then told to pack it up and go home, a political solution to the German problem had been devised and only needed to be implemented.
Maintaining the balance in the Middle East required a hegemon. The British designed it be unstable, the Husseins were put in charge of Jordan, the Alawites in charge of Syria, the Sunnis in charge of Mesopotamia and the Gulf states too vulnerable to survive without a patron. This was intentionally done so the rulers of the area would require the British to keep them on their thrones.
After the British Empire shriveled up, the strategic heir to to gimcrack scheme was the United States, which served as the hegemon of one side during the Cold War, and the hegemon of both sides after the Soviet Union fell.
But after the American experience in Iraq, it decided to get out of the hegemony business in the Middle East. This was the practical, if the not the intentional effect of Barack Obama’s policies. Perhaps it could not be avoided, but at all events, the abdication of American leadership in the region was embraced as conscious policy.
Most everybody could guess what would happen next If you look back at the Belmont posts around 2008, I droned on about this more than once. I have made it abundantly clear in many posts that I think — and of course I could be wrong — that taking American power out of the region and sticking in landlocked Afghanistan was total strategic imbecility.
We shall see whether I was right. Without the hegemon, things are going to fall apart. The costs of bringing the power back, even if the money and will could be found to do it, is daunting. My guess is that there is no political will at all to do this, certainly not from the Democratic Party side.
They just want to “be out” without counting the costs of being out. Now the dangers are such that Obama is looking cheap way back in. But his cheapjack methods are going to leave the worst possible successors in charge.
In the end America will have to come back in. But when it returns the old Middle East will be gone. I half-content to see this occur. The old order could not be saved, but the new order may be much worse. At all events there is no way back and we’ll just have to see where this all ends.
RWE/14, W/15—I like the last paragraph and I pretty much agree. I’m just a civilian but when the show in Afgh started changing from SpecOps raids, etc to civilization building, with its attendant expenses and materiel requirements, I thought, ”Uh-oh!”. Paks to the south, Russians to the north, and the Arabian Sea is far away. Sounded like trouble to me. Mission creep in spades.
And … I assumed we were going to turn Iraq into a giant aircraft carrier right in the middle of the action. Have our bases out in the sticks, have a cooperative govt in place, and let them see to their own affairs as long as our strategic interests weren’t threatened.
So we ended up with the worst of both.
Without the hegemon, things are going to fall apart.
Perhaps, but exactly who or what is the hegemon? The US? Or Obambus? Who defeated the Soviet Union? I say it was more Toyota and Sony than Raytheon and General Dynamics.
The progressive theory is that culture, modernity, progress is the hegemon, in the modern avatars of Twitter and Apple and Spiderman and Doritos, also Boeing (airlines) and whoever runs the phone and Internet trunks around the world these days. And maybe this is right. We are Borg, resistance is futile.
Anyway, I don’t much care what falls apart over there, yeah you got to drain the swamp so the mosquitos don’t fly over here and give us malaria. But “hegemon” means nation building, among a bunch of savages who aren’t going to be very good at it without extensive guidance and coercion. They don’t HAVE enough oil to pay us for the blood involved, much less the pure expense and aggravation. Let Vodaphone and Colgate teach them how to live, unless and until the day comes when we choose to go neo-imperialist on them, carve out 20,000 square miles of Galtistan in the previously Pakistani territory between Afghanistan and the sea. Also a couple hundred square miles around the Straits of Hormuz, and maybe another 20,000 square miles around the Qattar Depression, to be flooded for intentional climate change (also flood the Dead Sea and raise the water level 100 feet or more). Well, those are my projects for world improvement in the next 100 years. Need a bunch of Charles’ thorium reactors to help it along.
One possible solution for Syria might be to make a significant contribution to Teh Won’s reelection campaign, in lieu of a wedding or anniversary celebration say, then Turkey could very publicly take note of Assad’s largesse and make the appropriate noises so all might be forgiven. Win-win-win.
W – nowhere is the stupidity of the US State Dept. , wether run by D’s or R’s, more exemplified than the handling of ‘Palestinians’. The US funds these kleptocrats and in return gets bashed as racists and ‘islamaphobes’.
I indeed am a islamaphobe, I am certainly afraid of their racism, taqqiyah and downright murderous treatment of all humanity.
The muslim arabs can’t seem to live with each other in any sort of sane society.
To stop the madness tell the errorfat wannabees to f–k off. No peace, no money PERIOD.
2000th US death in Iraq reported on a continuos loop for days, 2000th US death in Afghan.. Not mentioned by the MSM. No mater how far from behind Obama chooses to lead regarding Syria the media has his back……but will be right up front if he wants to leak something covert…..
Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, N. Korea, Russia and etc. etc. & etc. They all watch. Allies are cutting off information sharing and in some cases lying. Some allies will become former allies. The US is cutting back on military strength as things get more dangerous. Throw a world wide debt problem and overcapacity for manufactured goods demand and a drop in demand for commodities and it is not so much the unexpected black swan but the crouching turkeys and hidden hogs.
W -” Without the hegemon, things are going to fall apart.” Exactly. The Islamic regimes of the Middle East need to fear the American hegemon again, or events far worse than 911 could be not far off.
Of course, That One™ believes the UN should be the hegemon. That will not go well.
17. Josh
If you consider Regime Change only in the 17th thru 20th century mold, then you are correct. What I am saying is we need a new template for regime change.
“Sic semper tyrannis” This always to tyrants. After Saddam and Osama, it should be pretty clear to everyone that the USA can reach out and touch you in painful and fatal ways.
Make it a policy. Kill any national Leader that isn’t elected to a limited term in office.
Make sure everyone understands being a despot doesn’t mean big palaces, champaign, lobster and beauty queens but damp bomb shelters and constant fear followed by death. When being the dictator is a death warrant, very few will want to be dictator. Democracy will have a chance. Be civilized about it. Give Assad 48 hours to pack his sh1t and go. If he doesn’t, he will spend his final days regretting his decision.
Every night put ordinance on his last known location. Remember time is on our side. We only have to get lucky once. He has to get lucky every time. If we get him next week, good. if it takes 10 years, so what? It’s not like we will run out of JDAM kits. Besides JSOW’s will work too.
In time the Turks, Spanish, and Arabs will embrace with Icelandics and China-men. Jews with the Indians, white guys with Africans, starving Greeks with whale fatted Eskimos. Earth shall be the hegemon.
U.S. intelligence agencies are closely watching Israel’s military for signs it will conduct strikes on Syria’s stockpiles of chemical weapons, amid concerns the deadly nerve agents could fall under the control of Hezbollah or al Qaeda terrorists, U.S. officials said.”
One wonders what orders those agencies and the forces they are directing are operating under. While Buraq was more than willing to support the overthrow of the governments of Northern Africa and the “Arab Spring” that has led to the current chaos, he has been far more solicitous of the Assad regime. Given that, if we detect an Israeli strike on Assad’s WMD, will our forces help Israel or Assad? Keeping in mind that Putin is backing Syria. What other messages did Obama give to Medvedev to convey to Vladimir?
Subotai Bahadur
SB –
Putin to visit Israel next week could be vital in bid to thwart Iran via sanctions
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-press-visiting-putin-on-iran/
Putin to visit Israel but teh won has/will not.
It seems there are politicians that haven’t been castrated;
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/we-must-act-now-in-syria-or-pay-later/article4362078/
Sorry Georgie, Monty needs the fuel and we can’t upstage our allies too badly…
Joe Buzz, forget about comparing the Afghanistan death toll to Iraq. Heck, you can’t even compare it to Chicago. This year 228 Americans have been murdered in Chicago, while 144 have died in Afghanistan. Since 2001, more than 5,000 Americans have been murdered in Chicago while only 2,000 have died in Afghanistan.
Kabul is a cheap pretender to Chicago’s claims.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=sHKUcXNq_xk&NR=1
Er, I like the general concept, but does that mean Heraman von Rompuy needs to find a bunker quick-like?
When the British in Whitehall (Churchill the monarchist, unfortunately) dismembered the Ottoman Empire after defeating Turkey in WWI, they did it by giving everyone in the Middle East a country with a new king they did not want, except for the Kurds, who only got the back of Churchill’s hand. The despised British-imposed monarchs fell over the next two generations to Arab nationalist and socialist revolts. Syria is governed today by the Ba’ath Socialist Party, composed of Alawites, who comprise only a very small minority in the country.
The troubles in Syria will never be solved until the majority Sunni have control over their country, and if American foreign policy cannot comprehend this simple fact it likley will fail.
#27 Impeach 0bama
I suspect that there is Maskirova involved. If Russia had any intention of ever curbing the Iranian nuclear program, it would have been simple. The reactors, centrifuges, and nuclear materials came from …. Russia. Further, from the git-go it was obvious that power production was not the goal.
Short bit of physics. Uranium comes in different isotopes [# of neutrons]. U-238 is the most common [99.27%] isotope of uranium and is non-reactive and non-radioactive. U-235 is the [0.72%] isotope that is radioactive and can be used either as a reactor fuel or the fissile material for a nuclear bomb. There is also a U-234 isotope, but it is stable and negligible. They are intermixed and the process of separating out the U-235 for nuclear purposes is difficult, expensive, and requires both specialized equipment [furnished by Russia in this case] and a lot of electrical power. It also is more than passing hazardous as it involves hot Uranium Hexaflouride gas that tends to dissolve things and people it touches.
By the way, “depleted uranium” is uranium that has had ALL the U-235 removed and is perfectly inert, and very dense [denser than lead], making it a lovely projectile to punch holes in tank armor. Leftist barking Chiroptera Lunarii notwithstanding, by definition it is not radioactive, and does not cause birth defects, cancers, or psychic cobbly-wobblies. It is just a very dense rock to throw real fast against something hard. As a byproduct of their nuclear program, the Iranians are making a bunch of it.
Now, to get that 0.72 of 1% out of the uranium ore, the Iranians make [very] hot Uranium Hexaflouride gas, and spin it real fast in a gaseous diffusion centrifuge [furnished by Russia] and the different isotope weights will kinda-sorta separate. Do this enough times, and you get higher and higher concentrations of U-235. The hardest, longest part of the process is the first few percent concentration requiring a lot of passes through the centrifuges.
Now, what U-235 concentration do you use to make fuel pellets to put in the fuel rods of a nuclear power reactor?
And what U-235 concentration is “weapons grade” usable in nuclear weapons?
Times up.
Fuel pellets are 3-4% U-235. Weapons grade is at least 70%.
The initial radioactive materials [processed uranium ore] were furnished by Russia to Iran. Penultimate question: What was the U-235 concentration of the nuclear materials furnished by Russia to Iran? This was mentioned at the time of the shipment, but the news media would not know physics if it bit them.
.
.
.
9%
Three times what would have been needed for the claimed reactor fuel. And it has been being processed through the centrifuges as fast as they can, after accounting for certain …. difficulties being introduced into their system.
Final question: What reason would they have to further refine U-235 since they are already at 3x reactor fuel level?
You know the answer. I know the answer. Russia certainly knows the answer. And the government of Buraq Hussein Obama definitely knows the answer. The Israelis do too.
Given the Russian investment in Iranian nuclear weapons, does it not make more sense that Putin is there to try to convince the Israelis that they can safely delay any action against Iran based on Russian information and promises? One interesting point is that Russia, who furnished the Iranians with the capability to make nuclear weapons, is probably considered a more likely honest broker between Israel and Iran, than the United States right now. Not that any Israeli government in their right mind would trust either.
Subotai Bahadur
Well, according to the book Amateur, Jeremiah Wright acknowledged that he didn’t, in fact, convert Obama to Christianity [actually, black liberation theology, which has nothing to do with Christianity in any theological sense]. So, according to his own “spiritual mentor,” he’s still a Moslem.
In that light, all this makes sense.
It still seems to me that the rivalry, how shall I say, between Shia and non-shia is about to get much hotter, so Syria gets to be the next Lebenon…on steroids.
0bama thought it would be cool to woo-up to the Iran regime. It’s not. Not materially or otherwise.
I’m reminded of that quotation attributed to Peter the Great where he says something to the effect that… “If I control russia all the way down to the persian gulf, I will control the world”.
Is russia burning the Iranian candle twice as hot to burn it out twice as fast?
0bama looks like a sideline cheerleader by comparison.
33. Subotai Bahadur
Sir, nothing like a nugget of reason in a seemingly played-out mine of walled thought. At least it seems walled if you listen to the deafening silence of our friends at Foggy Bottom.
You have to admire the long-term thought (or the short-term nimbleness) of the Russians, who seem to be back as a power broker in ME affairs.
A little further down the road, a Russian play for ME soft power, controlling or influencing a vast sum of energy (ME Oil Reserves). Just at a time when US “forgotten” reserves come into play.
Oil and Gas are Gold to Russia, their cachet and currency on the world stage depend on it.
#33 Subotai Bahadur
” The reactors, centrifuges, and nuclear materials came from …. ” – from _Germany_, SB, not from Russia. Remember Stuxnet? It attacked _Siemens_ SCADA systems.
OT a former Secret Service Agent just suggested that the Fast Furious documents would likely show that some of the guns walked into Mexico were walked back into the U.S….as far north as New York…several hundred (maybe thousands).
If true were they used in crimes? Have others died besides Agent Terry and several hundred Mexicans?
It is in Americas best interest to stay out of the Syrian debacle.
Syria has no oil and its current regime protects its large Christian population-it also took in about one million Christian refugees from Iraq and gave them safe haven.
Our key ally in the region is Turkey-long time NATO member and the rising economic and democratic power in the greater region.
If Syria does attack Turkey then NATO will be obligated to defend Turkey-Syria knows this.
Tunisia looks to France for its political, cultural and economic future-not to the USA.
Tunisia is a tiny backwater of no relevance to American fundamental interests.
Overall American interests have shifted to Pacific.
We tried to help out in the Mid East
-it is a snake pit of treacherous ethnic, religious, land and tribal conflicts
-now it is time for the US to pull out and move on
“If true were they used in crimes? Have others died besides Agent Terry and several hundred Mexicans?”
If untrue, is anyone held responsible in our media? When ever you encounter these crazy stories, there are a few safe assumptions to make:
This is what Stalin did. Hopefully we use propaganda for better reasons, but don’t be so sure…
Victor @ 39: “If Syria does attack Turkey then NATO will be obligated to defend Turkey-Syria knows this.”
Turkey chose to refuse access to the northern border of Iraq, when US forces acting with international approval sought to remove the very dangerous Saddam Hussein. Lots of US citizens have not forgotten. Payback is a bitch.
A Turkish call for NATO help would have unpredictable results. The US has unfortunately shown itself to be a sometimes unreliable ally. There is no mileage for Obumble in printing money to stumble about aimlessly in Syria, dragging lots of anti-war media & NGOs with him. Turkey realizes this. NATO will not be involved in Syria, even if Turkey choses to take action.
So Victor, your answer is for America to take their “losses” and move on?
“Losses” in quotes for a snarky reason…
Not to say that you don’t have America’s interest at heart, but why would the strategy you posit further any interests, other than the Russians?
Just leave? Really?
That is a shameful act, in my book, when all those Americans died in the region to further American interests in the area. One of those interests was to kill the hope of terrorists that presumed to think that they could strike without impunity at the existing hegemon-like power (hegemon-like because we were, but refused to discuss or act on the reality)
It always makes me laugh to hear the NYT go on about “root causes”, as they are so wont to do.
I wonder what the “root causes” of their unfolding bankruptcy are?
Perhaps their total inability to correcty identify any root cause since prohibition is somehow related, no?
Turkey calls Nato meeting on warplane downed by Syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207
Sub Bah @ 33 – Just one clarification that may be important to some. One mole of U-238 decays with a power output of 3 µW, Alpha emission. It’s slightly radioactive.
#40 Baobo, really? At first pass I thought you serious…
I’m more concerned our press hasn’t presented this ever growing story so that rational minds can come to their own conclusions. It might also be helpful if they accurately portrayed what it is like on the U.S./Mexican border today.
I’m becoming increasingly concerned that this story will become much worse that the death of a U.S. agent (Terry) and several hundred Mexicans.
45. epignosis
With a Half life of 4,468,000,000 years.
s @ 24: “Sic semper tyrannis”
Well. You want us to *be* the hegemon, old-school. Maybe so does wretchard, tho he tends to want us to support the good, rather than punish the bad.
And the term of art is Precision Guided Munitions – PGM.
I – don’t know. Who does it apply to? Syria? Cuba? China? Russia? It’s a big world. California, with The Eternal Governor (with long breaks) Jerry Moonbeam and Eternal Senatresses Feinstein and Boxer?
On any issue, the domestic politics will split three roughly ways – for, against, and undecided. Can we *be* a military, moral hegemon with a democratic government? And the world will probably do the same – a third for, a third against, and a third undecided. Do we want a third of the world actively against us, for specific kinetic reasons? Yeah I know, ‘it would be an improvement’.
–
My weakly rant regarding ABC’s This Week – The democrats seem unable to discuss any issue at hand, casting wildly into casting blame, revealing hidden agendas, proposing moral equivalencies. Race. Sex. Meta-issues. Opponent’s motivations. ANYTHING BUT THE ISSUE AT HAND. One of their panelists this week was Hilary Rosen, she of “Ann Romney should get out of the house”. Rosen examplified the anything-but-the-issue. Do we need her on TV? Well, but we had President Clinton of the same general mold, lie about anything and everything – though to be fair, he often at least *did* lie about the issue at hand! Also had a Congressman Becerra from California, a Democratic Hispanic star – he too was happy to change the subject. Obambus his own self does tend to talk about the issues at hand (with a ton of time spent on blame-casting), but certainly his advisors, Axelneck and Plouffe and yes Hildabeast, are of the change-the-subject types. Well, maybe these are good tactics. My point, such as it is, is that it tends to strongly differentiate the Republican/conservatives from the current herd of Democrats.
Victor: “If Syria does attack Turkey then NATO will be obligated to defend Turkey-Syria knows this.”
“now it is time for the US to pull out and move on”
So America has no interests in the ME and should do nothing yet your argument contradicts itself by pointing out that we could be drawn into regional war by NATO treaty.
Turns out Syria has attacked Turkey in a very deliberate way and our “ally” instead of handling it themselves, which they could easily do, are trying to drag NATO into it.
Turkey doesnt need NATO to deal with one plane shot down. That is not what the charter intended. This is not a full scale invasion requiring help of member states. Turkey has plenty of resources to handle this without crying to NATO.
With such friends who needs enemies.
The plane that was shot down was an American supplied F-4 with Israeli upgrades. Maybe Turkey should focus on fixing its relationship with Israel so it can concentrate on its real enemies in the region.
31. JMH,
Unfortunately, Heraman von Rompuy WAS elected. Some sort of chronological limit will have to be set. 10 years would be about right.
41. Kinuachdrach
I think you are stuck on ‘friends’. Turkey Didn’t support the invasion of Iraq in ’03 because they didn’t see it as being in their interests. The DoS (State Department)needs to own up to that one. Turkish parliament voted and the ‘stay out of it’ guys won. That pleased DoS immensely. It should have been a warning to Bush and his clown posse that State was doing everything in it’s power to make Iraq a failure. I don’t think that ever even occurred to them. Powell to this day hasn’t figured out that State was playing him for the fool. Pay backs is seldom if ever a motivation among the diplomats of a democracy. Despots, yes authoritarian governments, yes. Any government of dubious legitimacy has to guard their national pride like a junk yard dog guards a bone. Any threat to that legitimacy must be met immediately in overwhelming force.
If you want paybacks, direct it to the State department.
As a point of fact, on the ground Turkey is much more powerful then Syria. Amateurs look at Syria’s 4,950 Tanks and see military power. Professionals see them as targets, manned by poorly trained conscripts.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Syria
Stalin called Artillery the God of War;
http://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-towed-artillery-total.asp
Syria ranks right behind the USA. That is because the USA is downsizing it’s artillery forces. Stalin died a long time ago. The war he was talking about ended before he died. In modern war Artillery is a target. See the pattern?
In the 21st century, it isn’t really about the quantity of equipment so long as there is enough of sufficient quality. It’s the people manning that equipment that matter the most. Turkey is middle of the road NATO as far as quality can be judged in NATO exercises. Syria is at the bottom of the heap for Arab armies, which are noted for being of poor quality.
the only thing that makes a Turkish, Syrian conflict anything other then a cakewalk is that Syria, on paper has a more numerous air force. Or at least they can put 100% of their effort into it. Turkey still has to guard against Greece. Not really, but they think that way.
I don’t expect a conflict between Turkey and Syria. Turkey IS a democracy, even if it dresses funny and has bad manners. AFAIK, the Turkish citizens really see no point in a war against Turkey. That, of course, can change overnight.
Despite the fears of the Cowards on the left, Russia cannot intervene. Russia has never had any strategic reach. Their fighters are short ranged and the have limited air to air refuelling. They would have to stage through Iran and either operate from bases there or in Syria. A very long and shaky logistics line. Makes the US logistic trail into Afghanistan look like the Golden State Bridge.
No, the killing in Syria will continue. Neither side will back down at this point. The sanctions won’t work because sanctions NEVER work against a dictator. The nations with enough military power to slap some sense into the Syrian won’t do so. Israel prefers the devil it knows to the devil it doesn’t, which is short sighted and foolish. I’ve given my opinion on the Turks. It might well be wrong, probably is but I thought about it a lot.
The USA is controlled by a castrated sack of sh1t. If Pootie had bitch slapped him during their meeting, Berry would have cried, gotten on his knees and begged for forgiveness.
So long as that POS is POTUS, the USA is just another banana republic.
The middle-east has been a side-show media distraction for 60 years. As the Islamic Brotherhood makes political gains, those nations will fail economically. And as they fail, they become less of a real threat to Israel. Oh they will still pose a problem because of rogue terrorist operations, but the Islamist neighbors will not be able to mount a full-scale war as in the past.
Neither Russia or the US has an interest in proxy conflicts anymore. Only the oil states have the money to push ideology.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/06/24/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE84S0P320120624
Reuters is advancing a Syria claim to have killed a special ops team trying to infiltrate.
Syria is lying about not knowing whose aircraft it was about to shoot down. F-4′s have very distinctive radar signatures. I was wrong about Turkey being the last Nation to use F-4′s. Croatia also has them. Or a clone. German gave Croatia some FGR-2′s a few years ago. The FGR-2 uses different engines, which of course gives it a different radar signature.
I don’t find either side believable. High speed low altitude passes are extremely dangerous. Less then the blink of an eye and you have impacted the surface. At high speed. This sort of thing is counter-indicated in the Air force pilots training manual. For all air forces.
I have experience at this sort of thing and you don’t send in a solo sortie. This looks like what the US Navy would call a ‘bell ringer’ mission. The purpose is to see how the almost enemy (a for sure enemy that the politicians won’t let you kill) reacts to hostile overflights. What sort of defences are on a manned and ready status, how long it takes the rest of the defences to come to action, what those defences are. Photos only supply so much data. To really scope out a defence you have to get them to shoot at you. It’s always better if they miss but in case they don’t there are supporting elements that capture the data. Both the Turks and the Syrians know EXACTLY what’s happening and what happened. By now the Syrian’s have re-sited fixed SAM sites and moved Radar units. They might have brought in more mobile units. Or they could figure it was a feint and moved out some of their mobile systems. The solid data the Turks got was response time. That is an indicator of quality.
It seems inevitable that there would be one country in the Middle East that is embroiled in a nasty civil war. Putin dreams of the old days where Soviet satellites did his bidding. The vigorous youth in ample supply but with no other profitable endeavour needs somewhere to go. Hence Syria.
It also seems inevitable that the extraordinary fragility of the west be taken advantage of by someone who has nothing left to lose. Assad is in a tough spot, at best they are facing armed struggle for a long time. War is expensive, so the benefits to the Syrian middle class supporters won’t be there any more. At worst, he faces being hung or dismembered, his elegant wife raped as his strongholds are overrun. If the choices are bad, change the choices; With the western economic system in tatters, everything collapsing around everyone’s ears, there is potential for gain for a strong decisive leader.
Why not shoot down a Turkish jet. Let’s see what happens. Escalate the situation. The Americans have shown that they will give up almost anything for peace, even to the Russians. Why not see what shows up on the table?
#37 Rabbit256
Ah, yes. But who bought the reactors and centrifuges, paid for them, and delivered them? Russia. Germany got the money and thus it is German-made equipment. The fissile materials came directly from Russia.
#45 epignosis
Point taken, so long as it is also noted that a) everything has a negligible level of radiation emission, including human flesh, and b) the level noted is miniscule, and being alpha radiation is so weak that that it is easily blocked by human skin or a sheet of paper.
Subotai Bahadur
#54 Subotai Bahadur
“But who bought the reactors and centrifuges, paid for them, and delivered them? Russia. Germany got the money and thus it is German-made equipment. The fissile materials came directly from Russia.”
Seems you are mixing two different things. Bushehr nuclear power plant- certainly, the reactor is Russian-made and its fissile materials are Russian-produced and Russian-delivered. But also Russian-controlled ( and MAGATE-controlled as well). But the centrifuges – Natanz and Fordow – completely different story. German-made and Iranian-procured. And I have no idea what is the source of uranium ore – they have local sources, btw – but they are producing their own yellowcake ( and I would not be surprised if Iranian technological cycle can be traced to Dr. Khan). In any case, no connection to Russia.
And – there were strong rumours here is Israel that Russia took part in development and/or delivery of Stuxnet.
Stoi @ 50. Like all of your rant except: “Powell to this day hasn’t figured out that State was playing him for the fool.”
My take is that Powell played Bush for a fool. He never wanted the Iraq War to succeed. He was against it from the beginning. He set up Bush with his presentation to the UN that the War was all about WMD and then set out to prove there were no WMD . Remember it was Powell who said, just months after the invasion, that he was lied to about the WMD. Please.
stoicheion 50. “AFAIK, the Turkish citizens really see no point in a war against Turkey. That, of course, can change overnight.”
True. At any moment they might elect Democrats. Over here they are the Americans who see no point in a war against anyone except Americans.
From the introduction to Doctor Ragheb’s 2008 publication “Uranium Resources in Phosphate Rocks”*
I downloaded this report just a couple of weeks after Israel confirmed its air force had bombed the Syrian Al Kibar nuclear facility the previous year. If I recall correctly this was a complex which the Syrian government built mostly underground, with structures above ground intended to look like ancient ruins.
Within Syria’s borders lie extensive deserts of phosphate rocks. I believe the deserts largely consist of evaporates of various minerals…
I’ve cited these Uranium-containing phosphates a couple of times since the destruction of the Al Kibar plant. It turns out that Doctor Ragheb’s report shows that Syria has a pretty significant source of Uranium, in all its naturally-occuring isotopic components. These phosphates are presumably the source of the fissionable Uranium fuel in the Al Kibar plant. According to Doctor Ragheb Syria mined and processed over 2 million tons of phosphates just in the year 2001, at least partly under IAEA monitoring.
Considering the cozy relations between Bashar al-Assad and the Mullahs in Tehran, I suspect that Syria might be supplying materials to Iran, along with several other friendly regimes.
*(The report as it appears since 2011 has been edited detectably from the one I downloaded in 2008.)
While Subotai may have over-simplified a few issues that does not in any way undermine the main points – that Russia and other nations have been aiding Syria and Iran in manufacturing weapons-grade fissionable material AND that the experts in our own government MUST be perfectly aware of this. The dissembling and lies by our own government and mainstream press can’t be seen as diplomatic nicety, nor even the cowardice of cringing limp richards, but more treachery from a pack of Quisling J. Arnolds.
Subotai and others clearly have studied issues in Nuclear fuel production. My own sources are all writings for the lay public but I was commissioned some years ago to produce some programs for an organization which manages emergent situations for the federal government, which required that I familiarize myself with a deal of material on biological effects of ionizing radiation, defense measures against fallout, use of radiation monitoring equipment, etc. I’ve done a fair amount of reading on further issues in radiation, its effects, and methods for dealing with it… I consider myself an amateur, but I know enough to spot basic mis-or-disinformation.
In that regard, one item really sticks in my craw, and it is this: from everything I’ve read, the isolation of the minute fraction of U235 from the vastly greater mass of U238 and other trace isotopes on any industrial scale requires thousands of acres of facilities, arranged in cascading hierarchies of stages, in which each stage manages a tiny increase in the concentration of U235. This seems to be true of every process – gaseous diffusion, thermal diffusion, mass spectroscopy, whatnot. The miniscule differences in the behaviors of these massive isotopes means their physical separation requires enormous numbers of iterations of any process.
Does any reader here know of any separation/enrichment process that does NOT require a vast facility – on the scale of hundreds of acres??????
The scale of any enrichment campaign can be best ascertained by fluorine gas production.
UF4 + F2 = UF6
This is the only current, practical chemical synthesis using fluorine gas.
All other fluorine syntheses turn on HF — like R-12:
CCl(4) + 2HF = CF(2)Cl(2) + 2HCl ( stepwise exchange in a column )
Separations via gas liquid equilibria…
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The kicker with Iran is that missile warheads require plutonium / implosion schemes.
She is building at terrific expense various IRBMs — which are wholly uneconomic without atomics.
So where are her converter reactors?
======
The higher it is enriched, the more easily uranium 235 can be converted to plutonium 239. ( The device gets smaller… simpler… )
Perhaps Iran is running swimming pool style converters all under Tehran.
======
At least we can fall back upon the CIA’s track record for discovering atomic break outs: It’s a perfect zero!
======
Move along… move along… move on.
This is old ground, having been posted long ago…
Uranium enrichment takes many, many exchange equilibria — compounded into enrichment ‘trains.’
The current optimal solution uses 144 P-2 type ultra centrifuges per module, or balanced ‘train.’
It is impossible to push U235 concentrations down to zero — to do so is to climb a hyperbolic wall. The same is true when driving U235 up towards 100% purity.
In industrial chemistry, the shear mass / process stream dominates all calculations. No process is more encumbered than isotopic enrichment.
Because the PARTITION FUNCTION achieved at any given stage is so very weak AND the cost of the raw input is so high ( UF6 ) any process dedicates a shocking amount of equipment processing UF6 that is somewhat depleted. No one can afford to toss the ‘waste stream’ aside until it gets impractical to process.
IIRC, uranium is considered depleted at around 4,400 parts per million.
In nature U235 is around 7,110 parts per million.
Only the difference is available to move up the process stack: 2710 parts per million.
With this, you begin to see why the facilities scale very large.
Plutonium converters need a sustained chain reaction which can occur with natural uranium only if the moderator is very, very sweet ( heavy water ) and if the reactor volume is very, very large. ( Atoms near the reactor walls don’t benefit from all-around moderation. )
============
AFAIK Putin never sent the mullahs fissile material that wasn’t poisoned against use as nuclear explosive.
This is normally achieved by ‘burning the reactor in’ while under intense donor country supervision. Even one day’s burn is enough to permanently ruin the reactor charge for weapons purposes. This reality never makes the headline news.
This is how and why Putin can calmly sell fissile materials to Tehran — even highly enriched ones.
( Canada sold 37% HEU to Saddam, IIRC, for a research rector. It proved to be impossible to work around. It did make for a most impressive atomic statistic, though. )
===========
What’s driving the mullahs crazy is that Putin is a commercial tease. Under no conditions will he truly nuke up Tehran. Some of this has become public via Wilileaks.
Wretchard,
The single best report on the Turkish RF-4E downing I have found is here:
http://theaviationist.com/2012/06/22/tuaf-f4-shot-down/
First of all, it’s still unclear which type of aircraft was downed (or simply crashed) and what kind of mission the aircraft was flying when it was downed: the Turkish Air Force operates a mixed fleet of F-4E-2020 Terminator, RF-4E/TM Isik upgraded Recce Phantoms, and F-4E/TM Simsek. Although it has yet to be confirmed, the aircraft (flying with another F-4 of the same type) was probably a Recce Phantom on an ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) mission.
In simple words: it was spying on Assad forces in the North of Syria.
Then, if it was really shot down by a Syrian SAM (Surface to Air Missile) battery, which kind of missile hit the Phantom?
According to rumors, it was an SA-5 Gammon (S-200) a long range medium to high-altitude mobile SAM produced by the Soviets in the ’60s. Five SA-5 sites are known to be active in Syria.
The (aging) system (very well known to NATO in terms of capability, range, operating radio frequencies, signature, etc.) uses radio semi active guidance with terminal active radar homing. With a peak speed of around Mach 8 a single-shot kill probability is quoted as 0.85, presumably against a high altitude heavy bomber-type of target, should be less against a fast maneuvering combat plane.
Therefore, connecting the dots, the RF-4 was most probably flying outside the Syrian airspace at high altitude on a recce mission (still, there’s a residual chance it was a flight of F-4Es on a mission aimed at testing the Syrian air defense readiness). It was downed by an SA-5 shot that proved that this kind of missile can be lethal even if fired by accident by personnel believed to be not so very well trained (this being a serious issue should NATO eventually decide to establish a No-Fly Zone over Syria).
Both the Syrian and Turkish Governments are saying that the RF-4E was at “low altitude” but the use of an SA-5 Gammon precludes that in any save the rhetorical sense. SA-5′s are not capable at low altitudes, AKA below 300 meters.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_Angara/Vega/Dubna
Each missile is launched by 4 solid-fueled strap-on rocket boosters. After they burn out and drop away (between 3 to 5.1 seconds from launch) it fires a 5D67 liquid fueled sustainer rocket engine (for 51–150 seconds) which burns a fuel called TG-02 Samin (50% xylidine and 50% triethylamine), oxidized by an oxidizing agent called AK-27P Melange (fuming nitric acid enriched with nitrogen oxides, phosphoric acid and hydrofluoric acid).[3] Maximum range is between 150 and 300 km (81 and 162 nmi), depending on the model.[4] The missile uses radio illumination mid-course correction to fly towards the target with a terminal active radar homing phase. Maximum target speed is around Mach 4. Effective altitude is 300 to 20,000 m (1,000 to 65,600 ft) for early models and up to 35,000 m (115,000 ft) for later models.
This link is the most comprehensive non-classified technical analysis of the SA-5 on the web:
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Vega.html
The USAF RF-4C was, and presumably the US delivered Turkish RF-4E was originally, outfitted as follows:
The Air Force RF-4C was an unarmed photographic reconnaissance aircraft, with a longer more pointed nose than the standard F-4, accomodating three camera stations:
The Forward station carried a forward oblique or vertical KS-87 camera
The Low Altitude station could carry either
a left or right oblique KS-87 camera
a trio of vertical, left, and right oblique KS-87 cameras
a KS-72 could replace a KS-87 in the 30-degree oblique position
a KA-56 low-altitude camera
a vertical KA-1 camera
The High Altitude station normally carried either
a single KA-55A high-altitude panoramic camera in a stabilized mount
a single KA-91 high-altitude panoramic camera in a stabilized mount
two split vertical KS-87 cameras
a KC-1 mapping camera
a T-11 mapping camera
The RF-4C could also carry the HIAC-1 LOROP camera [originally developed for the RB-57F] in a large G-139 centerline-mounted pod mounted on the fuselage centerline.
The RF-4C was equipped with an ejectable film cassette system, which subsequently proved impractical in field use. Initially the RF-4C carried a Goodyear AN/APQ-102 side-looking mapping radar antennae on either side of the lower nose aft of the camera, which on some aircraft was later replaced by the AN/APD-10 with a podded extended range antenna.
The last USAF RF-4C were retired in 1995 and was replaced by F-16 with ATARS & successor reconnaissance pods with digital camera’s and long range data links.
The Turks and the Israelis were close in terms of technology sharing so I have no real idea of the Turkish sensor fit for their RF-4E, since the IDF upgraded a number of the Turks recce Phantoms.
Wikipedia says that there were 32 ex-Luftwaffe RF-4E transferred to Turkey and that 54 of Turkey’s F-4E were upgraded to the Kurnass 2000 configuration.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-4_Phantom_II
Turkey
The Turkish Air Force received 40 F-4Es in 1974, with a further 32 F-4Es and 8 RF-4Es in 1977–78 under the “Peace Diamond III” program, followed by 40 ex-USAF aircraft in “Peace Diamond IV” in 1987, and a further 40 ex-U.S. Air National Guard Aircraft in 1991.[92] A further 32 RF-4Es were transferred to Turkey after being retired by the Luftwaffe between 1992 and 1994.[92] In 1995, IAI of Israel implemented an upgrade similar to Kurnass 2000 on 54 Turkish F-4Es which were dubbed the F-4E 2020 Terminator.[19] Turkish F-4s, and more modern F-16s have been used to strike Kurdish PKK bases in ongoing military operations in Northern Iraq.[93] On 22 June 2012, a Turkish F-4 was shot down by Syrian air-defenses while on a reconnaissance flight on the Syrian coast.[94] The F-4 was downed near the Turkish-Syrian border in the Mediterranean and it fell into the sea some 10 km from shore. According to Turkish authorities the plane was in international airspace when it was shot down.
See these links for Kurnass (Heavy Hammer in Hebrew) 2000:
http://www.f-4.nl/f4_35.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/kurnass-2000.htm
This link below shows what was the most likely configuration of the Turkish Phantom that was downed.
http://s7.invisionfree.com/worldconflictsforum/ar/t2458.htm
The American built LOROP (Long Range Oblique Photography) pod shown at the link is a high altitude oblique photography system for strategic photo intelligence.
Peacetime use sees these pods used on runs parallel to borders or disputed airspace to look 50-60 miles deep into other nations for 1 to 3 meter resolution photos.
It is quite likely that the downed Turkish RF-4E was using the more modern Israeli version of the pod and delivered a video of the incoming missile before the pod transmitter was destroyed.