Russia has scheduled war games with Iran while the Pentagon is ‘pushing back’ on rumors that US-Israeli maneuvers were postponed at the behest of the administration to prevent ratcheting up tensions. The Christian Science Monitor says Russia “is signaling that it will use all its diplomatic influence to oppose war … will block any further sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council” — and will hold war games in the Caucasus.
The independent Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported Monday that this year’s annual military exercises in Russia’s south, Kavkaz 2012, will be much larger than usual and organized around the premise of a war that begins with an attack on Iran but spreads to neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan, and draws Russia into a regional maelstrom. The newspaper said the war games, which are usually confined to Russian territory, might this year include maneuvers in the breakaway Georgian statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and perhaps also in Russian-allied Armenia.
Meanwhile, Yahoo reports that “the Pentagon is pushing back on media reports suggesting that a major U.S.-Israel war game was postponed at the direction of the United States”. The Pentagon, in turn, said that it was Israel which requeted the delay.
But despite that assertion, sources have subsequently been engaging in something of a whispering campaign in both the Israeli and American media, implying that the war games are being pushed back because the Obama administration doesn’t want to further ratchet up tensions with Iran at this time … on Tuesday, the Pentagon pushed back a bit harder on the misinformation, telling the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was not happy about Barak’s request to delay the exercise.
Meanwhile, Russia defended a mysterious shipment to Syria as not being contrary to international law. A Russian ship widely believed to be carrying arms left Cyprus for Syria.
Russia has angered both Washington and the European Union by refusing to back the West’s arms embargo on its Soviet-era ally, despite violence that the United Nations estimates has killed more than 5,000 people.
Moscow still maintains close Soviet-era ties with the secular regime and remains the main supplier of weapons to Damascus.
Lavrov said Russia had no intention of joining the West’s arms embargo despite pressure from Washington.
“Without question, we cannot view unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union or anyone else as legitimate for Russian actions.
Also, the Teheran Times says that “Iranian stealth submarines are able to lie in wait in the Persian Gulf to target hostile aircraft carriers that are moving near them.”
“If an ordinary submarine submerges in the Persian Gulf, it could be the worst threat to the enemy. It is one of the Americans’ fears because our submarines are covered with coatings that do not allow sound to travel through them and do not reflect sound waves sent by (enemy vessels’) sonar systems,” Rear Admiral Farhad Amiri said in an interview with the Fars News Agency published on Wednesday.
In other news, the new Libyan government has announced its intention to pay 200,000 rebel gunmen $8 billion for overthrowing Khadaffy as concerns grew that those payments would be pilfered by corrupt officials.
The new government is already having problems with mismanagement and incompetent administrators. People, especially soldiers of the new army, are not getting paid on time. Bills, in general, are often not paid, causing local and foreign firms to stop doing business with the government. This has led to strikes in Libya, where the economy was long centrally run and propped up by lots of oil income. A lot of Libyans feel they are due a paycheck no matter what, but the new government does not want to continue the old Kaddafi era centrally controlled economy.
Can the US taxpayer seek reimbursement for the munitions expended in making the fall of the Duck of Death possible? Or is that prohibited under the moral heading, “no blood for oil”?
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One gets the feeling that the situation in Iran is right at the hairy edge. The fact that the Mossad is assassinating Iranian engineers tells me that the Israelis are close to running out of patience. Likewise the various half-assed economic measures that Obama has authorized against Iran indicates the last acts of desperation prior to actual war. I have the feeling that we’re teetering back-and-forth at the precipice not only in terms of war in the Middle East but also in terms of economic collapse. The whole world seems to be holding its breath and wondering when the storm will begin.
What is Russia doing? They’ve never had any great reasons to be fond of Iran and might have even less now. Just opposing the US because they can? The Russian MIC selling weapons for the cash? I gather that’s the meat of the “Soviet-era ties with the secular regime”.
Echoing Eggplant’s sentiment, and adding that it seems apparent that Iran feels it is in a relative position of strength, that the US will back down in the face of their increasingly aggressive stance.
I think it is this notion held by Iran’s leadership, which has a strong likelihood (not certainty) of sparking armed conflict between the US and Iran in the next six months or so.
“our submarines are covered with coatings that do not allow sound to travel through them and do not reflect sound waves sent by (enemy vessels’) sonar systems”
Then they can be detected in a shallow area by looking for the lack of reflection from the bottom.
Objectively, Russia’s support of Iran makes them the enemy of every ME country that fears Iran.
The whole defense strategy pivot to Pacific, the withdrawal form Iraq, the secret letters urging talks, the go-slow vs Syria, the almost obsequious behavior over the drone, the restraint of Israel — everything — seems part of a strategy to remove any possible source of conflict with Iran.
I think the administration fears that conflict with Iran will lead to a huge quagmire that will wreck not only Turkey, the oil markets, but also the Caucasus. It would have incalculable consequences. Even the veto of the Keystone pipeline to Canada may possibly be part of a policy to keep the Saudis onboard.
The problem is that the administration’s efforts to ‘resolve the conflict’ are stoking it. Obama is like a man with a .460 Weatherby faced with an advancing T-rex, and who, afraid that he will miss the shot if the T-rex charges, is making cooing noises and making motions to put the Weatherby down, the better not to provoke the voracious reptile. But that may have the contrary effect. And if the T-rex charges he will lose time getting the sight picture back.
Of course, the President may have reason to believe that Iran’s intentions are fundamentally limited and mostly bluff; and that the principle danger is over-reaction. So he is preventing himself from over-reacting by removing the means of reaction.
wretchard @ 5 said:
“… the President may have reason to believe that Iran’s intentions are fundamentally limited and mostly bluff; and that the principle danger is over-reaction. So he is preventing himself from over-reacting by removing the means of reaction.”
The first assumption should be that Obama is incompetent and there is no subtle strategy taking place. Obama is probably acting emotionally and following the conflicting advice from the sycophants surrounding him. Iran’s behavior has never stood up to rational analysis. Iran should be running their nuclear weapons program out of Syria, North Korea, Pakistan or China and vigorously denying that they have any nuclear ambitions. Instead, they engage in these attempts at deception that do not fool anyone for an instant. The Iranians are not stupid. They must know that their deceptions are transparent. What’s their deeper game? It defies understanding. Normally when people behave with extreme stupidity, it is usually due to religion or political ideology. I suspect both ideology and religion are driving Iran’s apparent stupidity.
what are the bets that our dear leader will start a war just prior to November elections then call off the elections due to the emergency and declare martial law?
as if the t-rex is sensitive to how you hold the rifle.
let’s review the military situation:
* Iran-only weapons and forces will not save them, although they could get lucky and hurt us, and/or launch attacks against Saudi Arabia or Israel that succeed to some extent.
* What will save Iran is if, for cultural or political reasons, Obambus does not pull the trigger. However, this may not be the good bet for them that they think it is, President Predator might just be crazy enough to do it.
* What could save Iran is if the Russians step up to defend them bigtime, and we did not want to force the issue at that level. I think that Russia is trying to stand back from that, but it’s not entirely clear.
* What could save Iran is if China told us not to do it, since they get a lot of oil from there (and won’t have their own fracked replacement online for a couple of years).
On the other hand, a clever Obambus might *do* it in order to give China oil problems. Iran has commanded Saudia Arabia not to replace any lost Iranian oil. Much fun could result. Also very profitable smuggling. Can you hide a full oil tanker in a carry-on bag? Japan, Europe and India probably also get a lot of oil directly from Iran, and even our prices would go up sharply, the product being largely a fungible commodity.
Might do it, I said … do what, a full-on military attack? This is I guess more about sanctions, that basically never work. So maybe Russia is trying to force Iran to smuggle oil out through the Caucasus?
If the main idea is to prevent conflict with Iran, the question is how to do it. If containment, then it must be effective containment, such that like a beast in a cage it cannot escape to do harm. If “a grand bargain” then Iran must be amenable to it, based on a joint interest.
It is not clear what the administration is trying to achieve. Throwing pieces of yourself to the T-rex may not calm it down. On the contrary, it may increase its avidity for your flesh.
“What would you do about Iran?” seems to be the standard ask-a-Republican-candidate question.
I am afraid I would disappoint them if they asked me. I would respond that the first thing I would “do” is never let such a situation develop. JFK’s half-assed military adventurism led to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after that was resolved (in part by our withdrawing SM-78′s from Turkey and Italy) we managed to never get into that sort of situation again.
Step One of dealing with Iran was dealing with Iraq. Obama is throwing that away.
Step Two of dealing with Iran was lining up with the Iranian opposition. Obama threw that away, too.
Step Three of dealing with Iran was missile defense, to give the lilly-livered Yerps some backbone and to defuse Iran’s missiles and nukes before they were built. Obama threw that away except for what was already done with the IDF.
Step Four of dealing with Iran was Drill, Baby, Drill. Obama threw that away along with Step 4B, which was the pipeline from Canada.
And by the way, Step Zero for dealing with Iran for me would have been transferring a dozen or so retired F-117′s to the IDF. For all we know that may have happened – phase out of the 117 occurred in curious close proximity to the end of the Bush Admin. And the airplanes are not sitting at DMAFB.
So my answer would be, “Obama has things so screwed up there is not an easy answer. But put me in there and I’ll fix it.”
P.S. I think it odd that Iran does not seem to be repeating its earlier threats that if we annoy them too much they will unleash their hidden secret minions of terrorists all over the world. Do you think they have come to realize that even Obama will not be able to survive that politically?
Josh @ 8 said:
“… maybe Russia is trying to force Iran to smuggle oil out through the Caucasus?”
Russia is a major petroleum producer. If Iran gets blown away in a war then Russia’s petroleum will have a better price. If Saudi Arabia gets destroyed as collateral damage then Russia’s situation is further improved. My guess is the Russians will do everything they can to encourage the Iranians to destroy themselves.
Why doesn’t Iran see this?
I guess it’s like dealing with your friendly neighborhood dope peddler. You know he’s in it only for the money and killing you in the process is a minor detail. Despite knowing this, you still need that next fix of heroin.
No doubt Russia is whispering in Amiadinnerjacket’s ear that everything is under control, he’s a brilliant leader and doing exactly the right thing.
“It is not clear what the administration is trying to achieve.”
I think the administration knows what it wants: avoidance of war with Iran. What’s unclear to administration officials and policymakers is how to achieve this goal.
Viktor, time to weigh in. Give those neocons hell!
I believe Obama is avoiding any hostilities with Iran at any cost to appease the far-left of his support base. Plus war is unpredictible and with these stakes you never ask a question unless you are sure of the answer. That is it, no secret agenda other than re-election.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Russia is supporting Iran because they are sure there will be hostilities, have to be because of Iran’s nuclear program, and Putin needs a boogeyman to scare Russians into rebuilding the Soviet Union.
Birds of a feather, power hungry, egomaniacs at heart.
THE GAMES PEOPLE PLAY
Russia is holding war games in order to tamp down the tension in the Middle East and Washington has canceled war games in order to tamp down tension in the Middle East, while Iran is holding war games in order to tamp up tension in the Middle East. Is there a winner in this game? Does anyone know the rules? Are there any rules?
Oh the games that people play
Some on grass and some on clay
Little kids play kick the can
And so do pols since time began
Games in tune with nursery rhymes
Games that date to ancient times
Games of war where no one dies
At least not ‘til the missile flies
The Russkies play at war because
The see themselves in US jaws
Israelis play from mortal fear
The Persian bomb is drawing near
The Mullahs play to call our bluff
They win ‘til someone says “Enough!”
Obama says he will not play
Perhaps he will some other day
Yes games are fun, we sing and laugh
Composing someone’s epitaph
What the Keystone decision and recent foreign policy decisions suggest is that are really no rational limits to the pursuit of the administration’s agenda. If there were then there would be many on the left who would be utterly petrified by fear of the consequences.
Forget Romney or Gingrich. Forget the GOP. What I would really fear, were I a liberal, is what happens when all these blunders ripen and rot. But it’s not just Obama. A glance at Europe shows them in worse case. They are bankrupt and won’t admit it. They are defenseless yet acting like Kings of the Hill. If it is any consolation to Europe, however, America is making up for lost time. Andrew Sullivan should re-read his article about why Obama’s critics are so dumb as not to know how good he is with the end in view of documenting his own descent into madness.
But he is in good company. Madness is everywhere. And now we know how past civilizations embarked on a pathological course; why Napoleon and then Hitler went far beyond any reasonable limits, any rational boundaries and on to destruction. They lived in a world where the calculator was broken and the consequences were nothing except to be damned. Perhaps we are in the same kind of situation. Except in this case the stakes are higher.
The stop-loss case for Nazi Germany was that the Western allies would beat them and they would have to endure being governed by Churchill or Truman. Of course for the East the alternative was Stalin. But there were other powers in the world. What is the stop loss now if America fails? Europe is if anything more helpless. And any successor powers will be too weak to do anything but squabble for power. If the West fails it will be barbarism from horizon to horizon. Maybe it is already if the West itself is mad.
And yet the leaders of the West go fecklessly on their way, like garden imps unable to look beyond the fence at the horrors without. Perhaps empires at their end are monumental edifices governed by pygmies. Pygmies who think they are the greatest.
There appears to be no way out but through the school of hard-knocks. The ideology of the current ruling elite is largely proof against reason. It is hell bent on its fixed ideas and nothing will swerve it from that course but wreck and disaster. And even they will press on until the last survivors take the cap gun from their hands with which they have been shooting reality.
What did Magda Goebbels say at the end? That it was necessary to kill her children so that they would not grow up in a world without National Socialism. And how happy she was at the end to receive the Fuhrer’s Number 1 party badge! Well National Socialism is not missed, except perhaps, by those who are insanely trying to reproduce its over-powerful state today. And as to the Party Badge, at last report it was stolen by some caretaker in Russia and for all we know has been sold on EBay.
Sic transit gloria mundi.
Can the US taxpayer seek reimbursement for the munitions expended in making the fall of the Duck of Death possible? Or is that prohibited under the moral heading, “no blood for oil”?
The US, through the dollars reserve currency status, has been extracting a financial repression tax on every debt-dollar in existence of probably 5% per year. This is what has financed all these wars. Not Federal debt, but the inflation tax levyed on the entire world of dollar denominated wealth holders has financed the empire. This is why you should own gold.
OT: This is a true story. A few weeks ago my sons partner skyped us that Canton Argau had deposited CHF 16,800 (about $18,000) in her bank account. Well it turns out that Canton Argau has set up an insurance policy for all unwed and unemployed mothers that compensates them for what they would have been earning had they been working when the baby was born. Well she graduated as a social worker right before the boy was born, so they are compensating her as if she had been already employed. Whiskey would love this. BTW, my grandson is beautiful, but he doesn’t bear my name.
The US just announced it is closing it’s Embassy in Syria by the end of the month unless the Syrian’s provide better security which they have refused.
16. wretchard: “What the Keystone decision and recent foreign policy decisions suggest is that are really no rational limits to the pursuit of the administration’s agenda.”
Precisely. Obama wants what he wants and he’s going to go after it no matter what. He’s too proud and vain to do otherwise; it’s his pride and vanity that are urging him on to take ever more extreme actions. And he doesn’t fear the consequences because he doesn’t think that they will apply to him: he doesn’t think he will be affected. I’ve encountered this phenomenon when talking with liberals who live in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood. They’re all very wealthy, otherwise they couldn’t afford to live in Hyde Park,yet they still support Obama and his wealth-destroying socialist policies and programs because … because they haven’t been affected by them. Not yet. And they don’t believe they will be. They can’t imagine that their wealth will be destroyed. And guess what? When their wealth is destroyed, and they are plunged into miseries they never expected or imagined, they will not repent. They will go to their graves shouting that conservatives caused their misfortunes, and that liberal-left programs and policies would have succeeded if only they had been better and fully implemented. Do not expect these people to change, ever. The scales will never fall from their eyes.
OT-http://www.thepostemail.com/2012/01/20/breaking-georgia-judge-denies-obamas-motion-to-quash-subpoenas/
Yep, this judge is gonna give us a looksie at our Fourth Best President’s birth certificate and social security stuff. Oops!
For what it’s worth, some at Zerohedge ,which I am not trying to giving credence to, think Buraq will want to Wag the Dog in Iran to deflect attention away from his false past.
I think that the government of Iran simply wants more power and maybe more territory – just like the old days. Then it will be able to attack and damage its enemies. At the same time, Iran seems to have built up a big pus-filled boil of opposition within its borders. There may be some kind of race between the Iranian government and the eruption schedule of the boil of opposition.
The Obama administration just doesn’t do foreign (foreign being anywhere outside of DC, Chicago, San Francisco and L.A.) and is way out of its depth. They must have swallowed some fantasy about Geography, History, and cultures. Get some ignorant experts to fill a feminised male’s head with all the wrong information and he’ll do all the wrong things. He certainly has the gift for making foreigners angrily disrespectful of him. All his ducking and weaving is making Iran more dangerous, not less.
Like that Italian cruise ship captain, the Obama administration simply is not up to the job. It has shirked its responsibilities by jumping ship, leaving the rest of us abandoned, in danger and mightily disgusted. It’s everyone for themselves now.
I might also add that Obama will not deviate from his extremist course nor stop or turn back on it because he really does not know what else to do. He doesn’t have the life experiences to draw upon in terms of knowing when and how to adjust to changing situations or adverse circumstances. He’s never been challenged in a really serious way hence he does not know how to behave in a way that will enable him to deal with and overcome dire adversity. Relatedly, he’s not very smart–nor does he have depth of wisdom, and wisdom of the kind that dealing with adversity will impart. Left to his own devices, he’s just a plodder after all.
I am not so sure I agree with the idea that zero is making these moves to improve relations with Iran. I am inclined to think zero is playing a longer and bigger game, he is seeking to fundamentally remake America and change America’s position in the world, or more plainly, he wants to weaken America militarily, politically, and economically. Some of these moves may be perceived as an effort to placate Iran but that is only a salutary effect. The refusal to grant approval to Keystone strike at the military and economic strength of the nation. The decision to re-orient forces towards china makes it easier to argue for his reduced military.
In all seriousness, at what point do these actions become treasonous? The rosenbergs gave away the designs for the bomb to the soviets, thereby increasing the risk to the nation as a whole. If zero and those working with him are designing and implementing policies with the intention of remaking America into a weaker, less independent, less economically sound nation is that any less treacherous? I do not care if they are doing what they believe is “patriotic”. Patriotism is a word, it has a definition and I do not believe any accepted definition can be interpreted as deliberately hobbling your country.
6. Eggplant “The first assumption should be that Obama is incompetent and there is no subtle strategy taking place.”
Such an assumption presumes Obama ignores the advice of his advisors. Whereas some of his advisors are on the record of supporting the current stance well before Obama became president. Additionally, some of his advisors, and those of the Bush administration for that matter, have now been accused by the FBI of working with the Iranians.
The “Ignorance” and ineptitude, and inexperience, rationales, are understandable coming from his supporters seeking to downplay a radical agenda.
It is, however, inexcusable that conservatives use the same words, when a study of the records of just his advisors would show they supported the administration’s policies.
“I am afraid I would disappoint them if they asked me. I would respond that the first thing I would “do” is never let such a situation develop. JFK’s half-assed military adventurism led to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after that was resolved (in part by our withdrawing SM-78′s from Turkey and Italy) we managed to never get into that sort of situation again.”
I believe the US removed the SM-78s only to replace them 6 months later with a new missile.
During the early cold war missile development was such that the US was designing a new missile every six-nine months.
What the Keystone decision and recent foreign policy decisions suggest is that are really no rational limits to the pursuit of the administration’s agenda. If there were then there would be many on the left who would be utterly petrified by fear of the consequences.
But of course Obambus and his ilk believe they are doing exactly the rational thing, saving the planet by reducing our production and use of oil, having the US act as just another country and not a superpower. As was taught to me about the mentally disturbed, it is not necessarily that they lack rationality, it’s that their rationality has a different basis than yours.
I still don’t really believe that Obambus means to weaken the US to any great degree, so much as that he believes we can and should step back in this way and that, and that these might even be beneficial moves, here on Earth or perhaps in Heaven. Maybe he should replace Biden with Ron Paul.
Obambus has learned some stuff, I think. We know he loves his Predators and Hellfires, more even than did Dubya. Perhaps he’s done bowing to people, I dunno about that. What he means about Iran is unclear, to me, to him, to Iran. Remember, Hildabeast has a hand in this somewhere, too. Iran is just playing their hand against an opponent who seems asleep, but they are playing a very dangerous game, and one suspects they don’t really know what they’re doing, Saddam’s “mother of all battles” again.
It looks as if they need an invasion to settle their accounts. I’m more bothered by Russia’s noises at this point, than anything that comes directly out of Iran.
davod #25:
No, we had 60 SM-75′s already deployed in England. They were meant to be there just long enough for us to gain at least parity with the Soviet ICBMs with our Atlas, Titan and Minuteman ICBMs. In fact we deactivated the Atlas E/F ICBM force in the US in the mid-60′s, since the Minuteman had come along so well and was much much cheaper to operate (no constant replenishment of LOX and He).
The SM-75′s and SM-78′s were removed by 1965. We had no more ballistic missiles in Europe until the Army’s Pershing I came along in the 70′s. We deployed CGM-109 GLCM’s and Pershing II’s in the 80′s in reponse to the USSR’s IRBM build up, after which the INF Treaty got rid of them, only to have the Soviets cheat on the treaty by deploying SS-25′s in secret.
Is Iran’s primary reason for building nukes because Shite islam is being threatened more comprehensively than in the recent past?
George Friedman [in 'Americas secret war' p250] suggests that Abe Shulskys’ OSP had a significant role in the Iraq war, essentially because they were old cold warriors who saw merit in re-kindling the division in islam that had been stagnant during the Baath socialist era – kicking history back into play as mentioned here before.
If China goes ahead and arms Saudi in return for oil the Iranians will have a bigger and historically more dangerous problem than distant Israel.
Setting up a blog would be a cheaper way to send messages.
Postponment of the joint US Israel exercise might be only what it seems. Israel is not ready. They hoped to activate the third leg of missile defense – David’s Sling. The medium range missile defense system. The whole prospect is bold. Build a shield over our small state. Defeat the greater mass against us with accelerated technology.
Maybe they need more time because there is no room for error. I see everybody scrambling to not give a message in this case. Then there is the reality of allocating resource in a democratic system. Do you fund another battery or go for the joint exercise? Not such an easy choice.
Roughcoat, thank you for your invitation to unload on Bolton and co. But I do not wish to be kneejerk here. And I’m actually pleasantly surprised at several BCers refusal to blame those eternal Evil Empire-building Kremlins for all Mideast unrest, as if the Mideast didn’t already have plenty of chaos to spike oil prices for the Kremlins already. And perhaps at least some of you have an awareness of old Z. Bzrezinski’s bragging about playing the Muslim card against the Kremlin, indeed ‘luring’ the Soviets into Afghanistan. Not that taking the bite was not a monumentally stupid move, like the Tie Eater allowing himself to be provoked by those uppity Ossetians and Abkhaz.
The issue is not so much the neocons — no one would care about them if Boss Murdoch was not willing to lose millions publishing the Weekly Standard every year — as the people that keep promoting their careers no matter how horribly wrong they got Iraq. That would be the military industrial complex, which is anticipating the axe about to fall.
There is a third possibility regarding Israel nixing the exercise (since that’s what the Pentagon says, in any case) that no one here has even thought of: that RUSSIA asked the Israelis to back off. And that Russia also warned the Israelis that Assad’s overthrow would not lead to a weak compliant Syrian regime as Spengler deludes himself into thinking, but a visceral hostile, Muslim Brotherhood-dominated regimes in BOTH Egypt and along the Golan Heights. Egypt of course can be starved out, Spengler has proven that much, if its regime gets too uppity and Islamist. But what of Damascus? The Syrians can’t be starved out without Turkey’s cooperation, as most of Syria’s food imports come from that overland border.
Spengler can snicker here that I vastly exaggerate Moscow’s influence in Jerusalem and vice versa, but ask yourself if the U.S. starts imploding, to whom else can the Jewish State turn for even alliances of convenience? China? There’s really no commonality there, though Beijing might be interested in Israeli nano and other cutting edge technologies. No, its the Kremlins that are Israel’s logical ’2nd suitor’ for Bibi and co to play off against Washington, or to send a message to Obama and co that they do not own Israel — and that even the neocons who all hate Russia do not either.
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=6357
But with all due respect to Wretchard, the Western press was rather slow on the uptake with respect to the Russian arms to Syria. John Helmer in Moscow reported this three weeks ago. And while Helmer alleges he was roughed up by some thugs hired by Oleg Deripaska, he clearly has some sort of kryshe or roof as Russians say and is useful to someone in Moscow who doesn’t like Deripaska and who admires his admirably skepticism about NATO’s white as driven snow intent to liberate Damascus. Otherwise he would have been deported back to his native Australia long ago.
So yes, as I’ve been warning BCers for weeks, there will be no Duck of Death rinse and repeat in Damascus. But if the Syrian regime does fall without NATO/Western intervention crossing the line, the Russians will simply tell the Israelis where all the Yakont missiles are for the bombing coordinates.
And while you all are correct to realize that Iran and Russia are ‘frenemies’ where do you think all the Iranian refugees will go after their country gets bombed into the Stone Age? Hint: Iranians are more clever than their Tadjik brothers on the other side of the border who have already come to Moscow. Think about it. Deputy PM Rogozin has said clearly several times he expects the Russian Federation to be left holding the bag with millions of Muslim refugees after the West withdraws in defeat from Afghanistan. No amount of temporary oil spike can salve the damage to the Russian society from even more swarthy Mideastern laborers swarming into the RF (it’s them you’ve got to watch out for, the Chinese would rather colonize East Africa than Siberia). If you think the Russian march with chants of ‘Caucasians out!’ is big now, just wait until lots of desperate Persians are added to the mix. Or to put it in the most brutal terms, ‘Banafsheh’ is already replacing ‘Natasha’ as the new code word in Istanbul for ‘whore’.
But hey, for the neocons, Russia and Turkey having to wipe up after their messes is just a bonus, right?
Sorry Wretchard here is the full version please delete comment #31. And since my comment counts as two, end of thread for me. Talk amongst yourselves.
Roughcoat, thank you for your invitation to unload on Bolton and co. But I do not wish to be kneejerk here. And I’m actually pleasantly surprised at several BCers refusal to blame those eternal Evil Empire-building Kremlins for all Mideast unrest, as if the Mideast didn’t already have plenty of chaos to spike oil prices for the Kremlins already. And perhaps at least some of you have an awareness of old Z. Bzrezinski’s bragging about playing the Muslim card against the Kremlin, indeed ‘luring’ the Soviets into Afghanistan prior to the pro-Soviet coup. Not that taking the bait was not a monumentally stupid move for the Politburo, like Misha the Tie Eater Saakashvili allowing himself to be provoked by those uppity Ossetians and Abkhaz.
The issue is not so much the neocons — no one would care about them if Boss Murdoch was not willing to lose millions publishing The Weekly Standard every year — as the people that keep promoting their careers no matter how horribly wrong they got Iraq. That would be the military industrial complex, which is anticipating the axe about to fall, hard.
There is a third possibility regarding Israel nixing the (sailing back into the Persian Gulf) exercise (since that’s what the Pentagon says, in any case) that no one here has even thought of: that RUSSIA asked the Israelis to back off. And that Russia also warned the Israelis that Assad’s overthrow would not lead to a weak compliant Syrian regime as Spengler deludes himself into thinking, but a visceral hostile, Muslim Brotherhood-dominated regimes in BOTH Egypt and along the Golan Heights. Egypt of course can be starved out, Spengler has proven that much, if its regime gets too uppity and Islamist. But what of Damascus? The Syrians can’t be starved out without Turkey’s cooperation, as most of Syria’s food imports come from that overland border.
Spengler can snicker here that I vastly exaggerate Moscow’s influence in Jerusalem and vice versa, but ask yourself if the U.S. starts imploding, to whom else can the Jewish State turn for even alliances of convenience? China? There’s really no cultural/linguistic commonality there, though Beijing might be interested in Israeli nano and other cutting edge technologies. No, its the Kremlins that are Israel’s logical ’2nd suitor’ for Bibi and co to play off against Washington, or to send a message to Obama and co that they do not own Israel — and that even the neocons who all hate Russia do not either.
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=6357
But with all due respect to Wretchard and PJM, the Western press was rather slow on the uptake with respect to the Russian arms to Syria. John Helmer in Moscow reported this three weeks ago. And while Helmer alleges he was roughed up by some thugs hired by Oleg Deripaska last year, he clearly has some sort of kryshe or roof as Russians say and is useful to someone in Moscow who doesn’t like Deripaska and who admires his admirably skepticism about NATO’s white as driven snow intent to liberate Damascus. Otherwise he would have been deported back to his native Australia long ago.
So yes, as I’ve been warning BCers for weeks, there will be no Duck of Death rinse and repeat in Damascus. But if the Syrian regime does fall without NATO/Western intervention crossing the line, the Russians will simply tell the Israelis where all the Yakont missiles are for the bombing coordinates — much like Russian scientists probably facilitated StuxNet. Which is too much for the Santorum simpletons of this world to wrap their heads around, though Newt might admire the Machiavellian brilliance of playing the two old rivals of Persia and Muscovy off against each other.
And while you all are correct to realize that Iran and Russia are ‘frenemies’ where do you think all the Iranian refugees will go after their country gets bombed into the Stone Age? Hint: Iranians are more clever than their Tadjik brothers on the other side of the border who have already come to Moscow. Think about it.
Deputy PM Rogozin has said clearly several times he expects the Russian Federation to be left holding the bag with millions of Muslim refugees after the West withdraws in defeat from Afghanistan. No amount of temporary oil spike can salve the damage to the Russian society from even more swarthy Mideastern laborers swarming into the RF (it’s them you’ve got to watch out for, the Chinese would rather colonize East Africa than Siberia). If you think the Russian March with Nazi salutes and chants of ‘Caucasians out!’ is big now, just wait until lots of desperate Persians are added to the Moscow mix. Or to put it in the most brutal terms, ‘Banafsheh’ is already replacing ‘Natasha’ as the new code word in Istanbul for ‘whore’.
But hey, for the neocons, Russia and Turkey having to wipe up after their messes is just a bonus, right?
Maybe we’re just cossetting Iran for a few months–just through the end of the year. Then the coals can come down on the GOP newbies head and he will be blamed for the whirlwind.
Does Obama act upon information filtered through the same CIA and State Department staff that betrayed and sandbagged Bush (43) with the faked NIE?
Possibilities, in declining order of probability;
1. They are taking orders now like they always did from Jamie Gorelick, Valerie Jarrett & Co.
2. They know the truth and only lied because they felt Bush deserved it.
3. They don’t know Jack and are feeding the same garbage to Obama.
4. They screwed up and now they are doing better.
The war games will be held farther away from Iran. This draws some of Iran’s military away from the homeland. Israel strikes. Russia then strikes out at the unarmed Iranians, removing any threat to the Kremlin. Iranian people rise up to force the mullahs out. And then I wake up from dreamland.
#30 Spindok says “Postponment of the joint US Israel exercise might be only what it seems. Israel is not ready.”
Israel may have “postponed” because they finally realize that the U.S. will, under zerO, never join Israel in any kind of joint attack and thus, planning and rehearsing for such would be a waste of time and money. Israel needs to marshall its resources because any unilateral attack will require everything it’s got.
re: school of hard knocks – and the human condition… where we project our sensibilities onto our opponents and are blind to the worst that can happen… even though history observes that those catastrophes for which we are well prepared seldom happen (where current history books rigorously avoid impling the less-than-politically-correct causality – though they are quick to claim causality in other (PC) domains on much flimsier data).
Here the best of the best in the responsible chain-of-command simply can’t believe Japan [.. now Iran, China, Russia, ] would act this way..
http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2011-12/missing-clues-and-cracking-codes-pacific-war
… Rochefort [Kimmel's Intelligence Officer] was as shocked by Nagumo’s raid as everybody else. It contradicted everything he had come to expect from the Japanese and the Imperial Navy. Instead of being rational as Americans defined that term, they did something foolish. When a superior officer called the basement during a lull in the attack, he heard Rochefort’s bitter prophecy: “This is the end of the Japanese Empire as we know it.” …
It’s gonna be a long wait in the shallow waters for those iranian subs, no CV is going to oblige an attack by leaving the safety of blue water CV’s have the legs to reach from far out beyond the littoral.
Should the iranian subs come out into the open sea to hunt they will quickly be out of range of support.
iran knows where the truth starts and propaganda stops. They are just bragging to feel good.
Iran is frantic because of capital flight.
The saber rattling is designed to get the price of crude up.
That the Wan is going after them economically — is apparently lost upon the BC.
KSA and America are vectoring Tehran’s clients away from her heavy, sour crude.
The Yanbu clone refinery is going to zap 400,000 bbls/day of global demand at that end of the market.
This is the type of attack that Iran can’t withstand.
It is also why Tehran is massively involved in screwing up the Iraqi economy — starting with their terminals.
Contrary to the hopes of the Oil Drum crowd the planet is leaving the era of OPEC.
It is entering the era of fracture.
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Lost in all of the hang wringing: Iran can’t survive any disruption of the sea lanes.
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Tel Aviv surely must have figured out that ANY joint operations would only be conducted for the purpose of discovering Israeli intents and capabilities.
So the termination of said co-operation is no indication of passivity.
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There is talk on the Web of Israel using a false flag operation ( using an American flag ) to activate terrorist cells in Baluchistan.
Further, this is why Tehran is in an absolute frenzy to attack Americans here, there and everywhere.
The Wan is trying to convince the mullahs that America is, in fact, not involved.
They’re not buying it.
This gambit has really strained relations all the way around. ( Iran, Pakistan, Israel and America +++ Russia )
What could possibly go wrong?
This false-flag op may also underly the Russian bluster. They’re trying to convince the gullible mullahs that they’ve ‘got their back.’
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Elsewhere on the Web it is very apparent that Putin & Co have absolutely no desire to ACTUALLY permit the Iranians to achieve the Bomb.
Instead, the intent is to milk the mullahs for all it’s worth, and to bleed the Americans.
For some crazy reason Putin just can’t leave the Cold War behind — and generally can’t accept Russia’s new reduced rank in world affairs.
Vicky, do tell him: he’s reduced to being Red China’s ‘wingman.’ They daze of Russia dictating military events is stumbling to a close: not enough Russians — and everything else.
As for the final insult: fracking is destroying petro-power on a global scale.
Red China now claims that she’ll have more natural gas reserves than America before the decade is out.
Frackable reservoirs are apparently so wide spread and massive that all prior hydrocarbon reserve estimates must be thrown out the window.
It also means that the Middle East is about to largely lose its economic importance; and that KSA has lost swing-producer power… probably forever.
This means that non-OPEC discoveries are now immune to price gutting.
Previously, higher cost locations were hell to finance because the markets feared that the KSA would pull down the props.
This new dynamic will cause ever more capital to flow to non-OPEC projects — while OPEC assets fade into the margins.
Muslim populations will continue to ramp until Dr. Malthus makes his round of house calls.
( Which see: Egypt, Yemen and Somalia. )