The WSJ says the White House rejected a suggestion by the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center that President Obama had put himself on the wrong side of events in the region by abandoning Bush’s democracy agenda. The White House said it had been working quietly encouraging NGOs and that the president had been in the forefront of spreading democracy since his speech in Cairo. So the question was, on which side was the president on now?
He stayed in character by taking both sides of the argument. He was for his “partner” and he understood the concerns of those beating on the walls of the Egyptian state:
Asked if President Barack Obama stood by the 81-year-old Egyptian strongman, Mr. Gibbs said: “This is not about picking a person, or the people of a country,” Mr. Gibbs said.
The U.S. tone, while shifting to acknowledge the fast-moving situation in Egypt, remained studiously cautious, suggesting they saw one last chance for Mr. Mubarak to address protestors’ concerns. It also was perhaps an acknowledgment that the alternatives to his rule were either uncertain, unknown or unpalatable.
Those words may not satisfy Egyptians rising up against decades of autocratic rule backed largely by the U.S., said Shadi Hamid, an expert of Arab politics and democracy promotion at the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center in Qatar.
Arabs perceive Mr. Obama as de-emphasizing democracy promotion after George W. Bush tried to make it a centerpiece of his second term, Mr. Hamid said. Expressions of “concern” should be condemnation and outrage, Mr. Hamid said. “We are watching history, and Obama is on the wrong side of it.”
White House officials bristled at such criticism, noting Mr. Obama’s comments on Middle East democracy starting with his speech to the Muslim world in Cairo less than six months into his term.
On Thursday, during an interview on YouTube, the president spoke of “legitimate grievances” in Egypt and said “violence is not the answer.”
The president urged Mubarak to refrain from using force to suppress dissent, according to USA Today. “What is needed are concrete steps to advance the rights of the Egyptian people. This moment of volatility has to be turned into a moment of promise.” But the president also asked the demonstrators to behave peacefully.
embedded by Embedded VideoYouTube Direkt
In order to lend force to his wishes, Bloomberg reports the president is turning the screws on Mubarak to force him to make concessions to the protesters. “The Obama administration is ramping up pressure on President Hosni Mubarak to address the grievances of the Egyptian people and said the government’s response to protests may affect U.S. aid.”
But there were also signs that the Obama administration was looking past Mubarak — to the Muslim Brotherhood, “a hard-line, but nonviolent, Islamic” group. Not only was the president taking both sides of the argument, he was looking to buy insurance for the future. Last week the administration had also admonished the Hezbollah to respect the Lebanese constitution and to eschew violence. The formula then was that things were “up to the Lebanese people”; and with that, America’s support for March 14 was pronounced dead. The words are remarkably similar to Obama’s observation that only Egyptians can decide the fate of Egypt. The message appears to be: we’ll deal with the last man standing:
Friday, for the first time, the Muslim Brotherhood took part in street protests, sparking fears in some quarters that a largely secular protest against economic and political repression could assume religious overtones.
Obama administration officials declined to speculate on the Muslim Brotherhood’s role. Mr. Gibbs said the administration has not been in touch with the Muslim Brotherhood, an outlawed political group which advocates a hard-line, but nonviolent, Islamic agenda.
Analysts said the administration will likely have to figure out how to accommodate a movement that is openly hostile to Israel, even if it is also a sworn enemy of violent groups like al Qaeda.
“If there is change in Egypt, then the Muslim Brotherhood will be part of it, so we must accept it as part of any representative government,” said Bruce Riedel, a scholar at Brookings Institute who briefed the Obama administration on counterterror policies.
But who will be the last man standing?
Oh that is swell, Borak is triangulating as the POTUS and community organizer. Itz zo gud!
Maybe Obama can bring in that product of the “non-violent” Muslim Brotherhood, Dr. Zawahiri as a special envoy.It ain’t 3 AM but it sure feels like it.
Ugh! That response from O makes be feel sick!
Any wagers that gasoline will be at least $5.00 a gallon next week?
Oh, I’m sure Obama is as committed to freedom for the Egyptian people as he was to freedom for the Georgian people, or the Iranian people.
Or for that matter, for the American people.
Surfs Up
. ” They had misjudged the wave time after time and until they were wiped out by history’s breakers.”
nice – as an ancient surfer – a surf – allegory – is good to see –
to continue – what is required is – excellent swimming, and diving capabilities – one must dive on the reef – during periods without, and with – surf and note the shape and form of the reefs –
one must note the direction of the swells, their period, and height – one must locate line-up landmarks –
one must practice until exhaustion – for years – burn ones skin in the sun – soak for hours in the salty seas – go out alone in the cold moonlit nights –
one must learn to – very efficiently, and without hesitation – to tuck and roll – beneath the waves forces – just enough to avoid it’s force – but not too much, as one then encounters the hard reef –
one must learn to hold ones breath – when all is turmoil around you – to stay tight in a roiling ball – yet relax completely –
- it’s an interesting sport – and is good training for life.
Mubarak has been ruling the most populous Arab country, under state of emergency powers since 1981 (Sadat’s assassination).
This isn’t exactly a black swan, and I don’t think it is in anyway a coincidence that it is happening with al Buraq (the magical ass) sat in the Oval Office.
None of his predecessors in the past 30 years has seen fit to engineer a peaceful change of power, but at the same time, neither would they allow a violent one to occur.
al Buraq is allowing it.
Obama’s not on the Oprah show any more, or in a triumphal progress through the halls of the cultual elite who are impressed by speeches in front of styrofoam pillars. He’s dealing with people who have come up through the hard Darwinian world of power, to whom expensive suits mean nothing, who have caked blood and dirt under the fingernails instead of Cu-tex.
He’s dealing with Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and the MB. People who will slit your throat and get a hard on watching you pass. So far, they’ve been taking things from him like candy from a baby.
One of the nice things about being President is that it only requires you to pick competent people, not be competent at a task yourself. If you look at Obama’s cabinet, too many of them are political hacks or ideological second raters, beginning with the Secretary of State.
What he has to do is get the policy right and then find the right men to do a decent, professional job. Then he should go and play golf. Never once should he imagine that all his credentials mean diddly squat in the game he is playing.
Roosevelt was a cripple, yet he beat Hitler and Tojo. Ronald Reagan was supposedly an idiot, yet he took down the Soviet Union. Why the Sam Hill can’t the Smartest Man on Earth make headway against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Because he’s not the Smartest Man on Earth. But he’s not required to be. All he needs to do is be wise enough to find someone who can carry out a rational policy professionally. That will save a lot of grief and a lot of lives, in Egypt and elsewhere.
Have you seen the latest from the “Daily Telegraph”?
Egypt Protests: America’s Secret Backing for Rebel Leaders Behind Uprising
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
Panday…
I found that curious, too.
If true — it’s the LAST bit of intel I’d want public. It puts democratically minded reformers at risk.
Wikileaks strikes again.
If you read the Telegraph story what appears to have happened is that State helped a guy attend a meeting with dissidents, something called a “Youth Movements Summit” and promised to keep his identity secret. That didn’t work so well
So far it sounds like State was trying to make contacts among guys they knew might be players. Then he alleged the existence of a plan to overthrow Mubarak to some US diplomats in Cairo. They didn’t believe him.
Now here comes the most interesting part.
On the face of it what we have is a report, which in retrospect looks like it might be true, but which at the time was categorically deprecated by the author of the cable.
It hardly supports the contention that the US conspired against Mubarak. More likely, the author of the cable stumbled onto gold or partial gold and threw it away. Well maybe it is dross which happened to luck out. But suppose it’s true. Then the “Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements” have a game plan which looks pretty much like what Obama will advocate. They’re going to use negotiations and the 2011 elections to take over. There’s a coalition in place already and there must be a handshake share in power.
That collapses the Tunisian Middle class democracy narrative, or at least, makes it more complicated. In these cases strange bedfellows form coalitions. I would not discount middle class, non-Islamic members as being part of the plan or the coalition. Nothing is truly every spontaneous, after all.
But if I accept the truth of the xxxx’s report, then the author of the cable messed up big time. We had a ticket in and threw it away. He came to the US in Egypt and they told him to take his fantasies elsewhere. Now it turns out that it may not have been a fantasy.
We shall see.
The down side of being the only superpower among great powers is that the average Mo expects POTUS to snap his fingers and make it happen. That is so wrong it makes me quiver. Not sure any of it matters.
When the dust settles and the smoke clears somebody will have to pick up the bodies. Doesn’t matter if the Junta has a new frontman (most likley), the MB takes over ( What the establishment fears) or some far sighted visionary forms a Parliment and holds an election with ballots(what everybody hopes). The bodies will still need to be picked up,
Egypt will still have the same national interests. It will still have the same neighbors. There will be a re-ordering of those interests and a different approach to those neighbors but it won’t be that different.
Egypt renounces the Sani treaty and Israel takes Sani back. Gaza then becomes isolated and left to starve. No more rockets fired at Israeli school children and their mothers. Israel can focus on Lebanon and force out Hezz-bo-allah. What is saving them so far is Israel’s fear of a 2 front war. Egypt will find out again that it’s men that win wars, not weapons.
In order to produce men that can match Israel they have to go democratic. If they do that Israel will be an ally, not an enemy.
So I don’t see that this is all that big a deal. Naturally, Egyptians want the USA to do the heavy lifting. Just like the people of Lebanon and Iran did. It doesn’t work like that. Ask Iraq.
America gave freedom to Iraq. On a platter. What did they do? Used it for a door prop so the tyrants could come and go more freely.
Bad things are starting to escalate as it does when our country appears weakened by lack of a president with balls or the lack of wit to know who the enemies are. We have a 40 something metrosexual community ‘organizer’ in charge thanks to the so called Democrats and their propaganda organs led by the New York Times. Our enemies think so little of this guy they insult him to his face at his own state dinner with a propaganda song and he applauds to their delight. That “Red Phone” is going to be ringing every night now that they know his number.
Imagine if we actually liberated the Copts of Egypt and the Christians of Lebanon. Just for a moment imagine what would happen if Islam’s balloon was punctured.
It’s all part of a brilliant master plan.
Obama says Let’s make a deal
See what’s behind the curtain
The Muslim Brotherhood is real
But we won’t know for certain
Until the riots run their course
And someone is the victim
The other is the winner and
Of course we’ll claim we picked ‘im
We sit apart from storm and strife
We have no dog is this fight
We make no judgments who is wrong
We know the winner is right
Our policy is working fine
To some it seems it rambles
My plan is that the world in time
Will be in utter shambles
At which point I will usher forth
A plan to clear the mess up
I will be king, and now you know
The devil made me ‘fess up
Jimmy Obama, here we come. Did the Obamaskeptics call it, or did they call it? (Not that it is any fun being in the wash of the fan when the manure hits.)
this will end badly with the muslim brotherhood in control of eygpt and tunisia.
the president knows and I think is hope that that is the case. he has done what he needs to to support the muslim brotherhood.
obama is the most dangerous person in the world. no small feat for an absolute idiot.
You know it; I know it; all the pundits know it. Obama is trying to do the presidential, foreign-policy equivalent of voting “present.”
Remember Lebanon? When Israel came to the aid of the Christians, the State Department and the Pope attacked Israel. The Copts in Egypt and the christian in the Muslim world will be destroyed. No one is coming to their aid.
7. Wrechard
I think you have it there. I also think obama wants the MB to take over eygpt and tunisia and a few other countries in that area.
I don’t think obama is nuetral on this.
Obama is worse than Jimmy Carter UGGH!
The President urged Mubarak to refrain from using force to suppress dissent,
uh-huh, how about using force so he can get on the last helicopter out of Cairo?
Roosevelt was a cripple, yet he beat Hitler and Tojo. Ronald Reagan was supposedly an idiot, yet he took down the Soviet Union. Why the Sam Hill can’t the Smartest Man on Earth make headway against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
ouch
George Washington had wooden teeth but he beat the greatest empire on Earth. Hernando Cortez had a foot fetish, but he conquered the New World.
ok I made up that last one, but why not.
Bill Clinton would have beaten off the alien invasion, if only they’d attacked during his administration.
um, do I have a point with all of these? I really meant just to appreciate wretchard, and then went off on that tangent. what was I going on about? something about mixing personal attributes and historical ones, I guess, as if Obama’s brain (even if it turns out he has one, and I’d like to see the original certificates on that, if you don’t mind) was ever going to be attribute enough to mean anything to the history books. that perhaps we should pay attention to what a guy says and does, and not just treat him as he said himself, as a blank slate for people’s hopes and dreams? are you listening, Nobel committee?
–
I can’t wait for Hillary to come crashing into Obama’s bedroom at 3:00AM waving the just completed translation of the Moslem Brotherhood’s secret manifesto for peace with Mubarak, “…. IT’S A COOKBOOK!” oh, did I drift off-topic again? darn.
what is all the fuss about?
egypt is as it has been for 5000 years.
nothing to see here folks.
move along.
move along.
The big E has been a dynastic empire and will be so for ever.
nothing really changes in the nile delta.
it is but a river of people flowing down the river of time.
stay tuned for the next king.
much ado about nothing in the history of time.
Barry is doing what he has always done, voting “present”.
#7 wretchard
All he needs to do is be wise enough to find someone who can carry out a rational policy professionally
you just hit the nail on the head.wisdom is , unfortunately, out of fashion in washington. a bunch of clever fools run the place and anyone with wisdom is ridiculed.they come to grief when the rubber meets the road.
Ronald Reagan: “MR GORBACHEV,TEAR DOWN THIS WALL!”
Barack Obama: “Mr Mubarak. Can you turn on the Internet? Pretty please?”
It is getting old hearing how the Muslim Brotherhood is non-violent. Them MB declared war on the United States in September. All pretense of non violence has be abandoned by the MB. The call for Jihad has gone out and many will answer.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=190894
Twenty two months. This is one more opportunity for the wrong people to take advantage of political uncertainty and instability with little concern for cost of doing so, and they will. They must. Bet on it. No one can know for sure, but thinking despots, dictators, terrorists, and tyrannical regimes world over must be assuming their window of opportunity will last only another twenty two months, or so, when, perhaps, then the United States will dismiss its current pandering, dithering, finger shaking, lecturing administration and return a serious government to Washington, if such a thing is possible any longer in Washington. Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, al Qaeda, Taliban – whether twenty two months is a long time, or a short time, depends upon which side of the barricades you sit.
looks like the corruption and radicalization in egypt will be worse than we thought– rahm just announced he’s running for mayor of cairo, instead.
13. Blast From the Past
THE same thing that allways happens when you puncture a balloon. It flies around the room making strange sounds then collapses. The size of the balloon really doesn’t matter. It just determines the flight time.
Modern warfare requires soldiers that can think outside the box. That requires a society that promotes thinking outside the box. Islam punishes thinking out side the box. Ol’ Mo the child molester defined the box and that is it. That is why the IDF could beat Arabs/Mooslimes time and time again even when out numbered and facing superior weapons.
Mooslims can no more face that fact then a rabid Socialist can face the facts of Socialism.
So the balloon is flying around making sounds. Who knows how long it will fly. In Iran it flew for months and they have a slightly smaller population.
Voting is Sooooo much better. Last November the voters dragged the Obomination to the crossroads. Now we wait until midnight( Nov, 2012) and drive a stake thru his heart and sprinkle holy water on his head after it has been cut off. Problem solved. It’s just a matter of holding on till then.
It couldn’t be helped
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHF558u6Q_8
You really want to counterpunch, and get the MB where you can take the political offensive against. An MB that is partly in power, but not dominant, is weaker than an MB in the romantic underground. IF — and it’s a big if — there are other opposition groups the US can support who can do the counterpunching.
That is better than hanging on to Mubarak.
What one wants out of Mubarak is the ability to deny the MB total control. Deny them power over the Army. You want to keep a core intact. Sections in the Army that can hook up with the MBs current allies and future rivals.
So any meaningful support for Mubarak has two components: delay and shaping. Mubarak is expendable. He gets out if he can delay and shape. We need the keys and the time to make deals.
Now here’s the rub. Who’s making the deals? Who’ll cook up the coalitions and make the arrangements to carry on the rivalry with the MB after Hosni beats it, because beat it he will. He’s too old to hang on.
In that one phrase is the entire problem. If there is no one who is organizing the counterpunch, there’s no point delaying. There’s no point “searching for moderates in the MB”. No point just waiting for the sake of waiting.
Time is only useful if it is purposeful. Who’s to say what’s going on right now? But going by the visible past, which is littered by disasters, operational security blunders, and bloopers that are now manifesting themselves, the team had better get themselves in shape for the next round.
#28 abril
rahm just announced he’s running for mayor of cairo
Being mayor of Cairo, Illinois, population 3,632 at the 2000 census, is just about his level of competence. FWIW, Cairo is the southernmost town in a part of Illinois nicknamed Little Egypt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Egypt_%28region%29
Muslim Brotherhood non-violent? What’s he smoking? Muslim Brotherhood is a founding element of al-Qaeda, tell me they’re not for our destruction?
http://www.bing.com/search?q=1973+oil+embarg&form=IE8SRC&src=IE-SearchBox
Read all about! Arab oil Embargo! 1973, tho.
Granus, so you don’t think Obmessiah will be re-elected?
Frankly, I am looking forward to see how the MSM will spin this as proof of Obama’s genius.
Regarding the the claim now of supporting the reformers back in 2008…
*Bush* was President until Jan 20 2009.
If true, the Obamists deserve no credit.
I’m still marveling over the apparently oxymoronic concept of “a hard-line, but nonviolent, Islamic” group.
Muslim Brotherhood as in Qutbism?
Sweet.
What could go wrong?
Here and there some such other parties are trotted out — as if the MB doesn’t know a lick about fronts and scams.
——-
What ever happens we can count on a collapse of the Egyptian tourist economy. No one in their right mind will be taking any camel rides any time soon.
Egypt is a rentier economy — so losing these ‘rents’ should absolutely bankrupt the state.
This makes Mubarak close to Louis XV. ( After me, the drought. )
——
We are entering a LONG TERM period of muslim ‘troubles.’
The inevitable collapse in muslim populations is going to be severe. They’ve totally overrun their resource base. This horrific trauma is certain to suck in Europe in as much as they’ve coupled their societies to this population ‘bloom.’
Charles’ water miracle must come too late for many. Unchecked births have gone on too long. Muslims are the only major population that has fulsomely ignored Malthus.
Without mining oil and water ( Libya is mining a mega-aquifer in the deep desert — shades of Dune. ) their economies will collapse as if they’ve been nuked. The day of crisis may be tomorrow or twenty years off — but come it will.
Time was Indonesia was a serious oil exporter. She’s no longer in OPEC.
Time was Mexico was an oil powerhouse. Due to crazy politics, Mexico is slipping back.
Iran’s oil exports are NOT as great as advertised. She has to re-import a hefty chunk of said crude exports as refined gasoline. Said gasoline comes from as far as Singapore! Thusly, Iran is NOT as big an exporter as you might think. She nets back 500,000 bbls/day this way. This is also why India has the worlds largest refinery complex. Like Singapore, they are in the ‘swap’ business also.
The only Arab country with fantastic potential is Iraq — funny, no?
Anyhow… Taken all in all OPEC is destined to lose a lot of clout: Russia, Brazil, China are all in a position to ramp up oil production and make Peak Oil slide out to 2035.
I think it’s funny, how we try to judge these events, whether or not it’s a good or bad thing, by trying to decide what the future will look like after it’s all over, which of course we can’t really do because it’s the future, we can’t ever know for sure until it happens. We can look to the past, we can analogize to other situations, we can predict and guess and imagine, but we don’t really know what will happen because it hasn’t happened yet.
I’m not someone who can even predict or guess in a competent way but whenever I read or hear something about the Muslim Brotherhood and how it might come to power and how terrible that would be, I think of how Al Qaeda in Iraq got itself in charge in the Sunni Triangle and how the people there welcomed that at first because it seemed like a natural alliance, fighting the invaders together. But after a couple of years of putting up with the AQ lunatics, the Sunnis decided they’d had enough and moved to rid themselves of that pestilence. The really bad guys don’t always win out in the end.
And then of course people compare the situation in Egypt to Iran, how things haven’t turned out terribly well because the Shah was kicked out and the Shi’a fundamentalists took over. At least it hasn’t worked out very well over the last 30 years from our point of view, but 30 years isn’t really such a long time in the scheme of things. That’s a story that’s still being written as well. Like all of history really. And when it changes in Iran, as it will of course, things always change sooner or later, it may be better or worse, who knows? But if it’s better, if we’re around to see it, we might decide that it only got better because of the many years of bad that preceded it. The bad had to come first, before the good or at least the better.
Here’s hoping the Egyptian people are able to achieve a better life for themselves and that they may deftly maneuver around the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune which await them. Up ahead, in that unknowable future.
The quote about the MB being “nonviolent” was from the WSJ, it was not used by BHO directly. However, references to the MB being non-violent abound. Some people do not believe the MB is non-violent.
My knowledge of them is limited, and I may be unjust in assuming that simply because they are players in tough lot, then they must be tough as the rest. But I think that is a safe assumption. Trust, maybe. But verify.
So if the President and Vs. President of the US drank from the same bad pot of coffee, How soon could President Boehner get rid of the cabinet?
I’m kind of uneasy about having Robert Byrd as Vs. President.
Tom (#37) Ya, I am with you! Scratching my head on that…. I am also at a loss to think that anyone really believes this could go “Democratic”… If it was to go “Democratic” I am betting the life expectancy will be very short! I mean hasn’t anyone been hearing all the news over the last several months coming out of Egypt? Copts murdered on a regular schedule and they make up close to 10% of the population (or did recently) by the 80% Muslims, How anyone could think this won’t go Islamic and then get Chinese backing quicker then 0bama can read his Teleprompter and then the Bowing wonder will proclaim it was all in his speech from Cairo…. One might think were on the fast track to the 7 yr finally. Remember, Days of Noah, how long before it is the same? evil in every mans heart… thats where we are “Progressing” too.
Mubarak is expendable.
I think he knows it. I heard his address on C-SPAN earlier today and he sounded weak. He sounded as if he knew his days in power were numbered. His body language was not what I would expect from a powerful man.
If I can sense weakness from him, chances are that Egyptians on the street can sense that far better than I can.
In the meantime, somebody in the White House should tell Joseph Biden to shut up.
Correct me if I’m wrong…
But wasn’t it the MB that assassinated Sadat?
And didn’t they chronically threaten Mubarak?
Speaking of that “nonviolent” MB…
The Muslim Brotherhood is very definitely our enemy.
News flash to toadold…
We DON’T use cadavers for President.
The succession: V-Pres (President of the Senate), Speaker of the House, Secretary of State…
Blessedly, that progression has never been needed.
Obama didn’t abandon the Bush democracy agenda. Bush abandoned the democracy agenda. See Lebanon.
The President is in a bind. I don’t see what else he can do at this late stage. Support the dictatorship and enrage the people of Egypt and his own countrymen. Support the revolution and help the people who hate us gain control of the largest Arab state. There’s no way out.
It’s too late. And perhaps there really was nothing to be done since the vast mass of the Egyptian public hates the United States and Western Civ and has for centuries. Not everything is under the control of the President.
But, and this is big, note the difference between how the President dealt with the Iranian and the Egyptian proteasts. There isn’t one. That’s very interesting. There was nothing to loose in supporting a revolution in Iran but quite a lot to lose in Egypt. This is exactly the time to be inconsistent.
alexis/45; that is the ”must-read” of the week (if not the new year).
It appears that MB has changed over time they still have a militant wing but have a dominant political wing–much like the IRA in N Ireland.
In an election in Egypt the MB non militant wing could get 30% of the vote at most so we need to deal/talk with them–and carry a big stick.
CENTCOM and General Petraeus already know how to interact with them.
“Commerce with all nations, alliance with none”
-Thomas Jefferson
“Prior to the ratification of the 25th Amendment in 1967, there was no provision for filling a vacancy in the vice presidency. When a president died in office, the vice president succeeded him, and the vice presidency then remained vacant. The first vice president to take office under the new procedure was Gerald Ford, who was nominated by Nixon on Oct. 12, 1973, and confirmed by Congress the following Dec. 6.
•The Vice President Joseph Biden
•Speaker of the House John Boehner
•President pro tempore of the Senate1 Robert Byrd
•Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
•Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner
•Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
•Attorney General Eric Holder
•Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar
•Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack
•Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke
•Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis
•Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius
•Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan
•Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood
•Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu
•Secretary of Education Arne Duncan
•Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric Shinseki
•Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano
NOTE: An official cannot succeed to the Presidency unless that person meets the Constitutional requirements.
1. The president pro tempore presides over the Senate when the vice president is absent. The president pro tempore is elected by the Senate, but by tradition the position is held by the senior member of the majority party.
Read more: Order of Presidential Succession — Infoplease.com http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0101032.html#ixzz1COzhuUxc“
Makes one wonder where all that money went (in districts that don’t exist) doesn’t it? Let us all remember Muslim Brotherhood Louis Farakhan is Obama’s neighbor in chicago…and of course Obama’s Muslim background, friends, pals and his promoting Islam all around the world….while pretending he’s Christian..His new NASA musta done a heck of job in it’s Muslim outreach, which Obama directed their job to be after he became President, wouldn’t ya say? When the political winds shift in an ugly direction, I will stand Muslim. – Barack Hussein Obama. Well don’t ya have to be Muslim to stand Muslim? Weird thing for a Christain to write in his book, eh?
And now the stupidity, ignorance and arrogance of America and its leaders 54 years ago (Suez in 1956) comes back to bite you – and unfortunately the adults of the world as well – in the arse. Again.
If the USA had helped Britain and France rather than threatened – hell, if you had just kept out of the way – then there would have been very much less Islamic terrorism. Almost certainly no 9/11 (or 7/7) either. And probably no need for two wars in the Gulf.
Maybe the lesson will be learned. I doubt it.
“Barry is doing what he has always done, voting “present””
Sammy, I agree… the fact that we’ve gotten nothing but boilerplate from the White House demonstrates that they are paralyzed. Evidently either this was unforeseen in the West Wing, or the warnings from the intel community were ignored. Either way, Obama clearly has been caught without a plan. And now they can’t formulate one, because the situation is changing faster than their decision loop can process the new data.
It’s too late for Mubarek. That plane has left the airport. We currently have no strings to pull in Egypt. Time to start working on a containment plan. There are things we can do that might give us a few strings two years or so from now.
Regarding the Sinai: There’s an interesting sideshow that could occur here. Israel may well attempt to retake the peninsula — but their military, in its currently weakened state, would be unable to hold it. Paradoxically, that would work to Israel’s advantage; the U.S. would be more or less forced to back their play and shore them up (with logistics help mainly) so that they can hold the territory. Because otherwise, Israel is left very vulnerable, to the point where its only defense against a surprise attack by Hezbollah would be nuclear. We obviously can’t let it come down to that.
I cannot help wondering what Barry will do if those protestors storm the US Embasy and take Hostages???
W@7:
“If you look at Obama’s cabinet, too many of them are political hacks or ideological second raters, beginning with the Secretary of State.”
I respectfully disagree, W. Hillary, while not my choice for president by any means, is not any second-rater. She would have been INFINITELY superior to Obama as commander-in-chief.
Women are MEAN, and Hillary is a mean woman. I’ve seen reports that the Israelis have made efforts to pull their women in the IDF out of “trigger” positions, because they’re just too damn “mean” (read: “realistic and willing to protect their families”).
If Hillary was in office right now, I’d bet dollars to donuts that she’d already have thrown her weight behind the democratic “reformers”. She’d have done everything she could to keep the reins of power away from the MB, but she’d have read the writing on the wall by now and seen that Mubarak is gone. Apparently our fearless leader in reality has not seen that writing yet.
Don’t get me wrong. I’d MUCH rather have McCain right now. He’s Nucking Futz, and I LIKE that in a CinC. I loved it in Bush. It makes the enemy think 2 and 3 and 4 times before crossing us. But if the choice is between Hillary and Obama, I DEFINITELY know who is the bigger man in the contest. I still entertain dreams that Hillary will knock O off in the 2012 primary and the choice is between H and whoever the R’s can throw at her. At least then we’d know that the better man would win.
Jerry@22:
“The big E has been a dynastic empire and will be so for ever.
nothing really changes in the nile delta.”
Disagree. In the 7th or 8th century, the Muslims came screaming out of Arabia and converted by force the majority of the population. The remainder is the Copts, who we should be supporting with everything we’ve got and who we seem to be throwing to the dogs.
But either way, stuff changed in Egypt and now the Arabs rule there and not the Egyptians. I’m actually surprised they haven’t tried to erect a “Mohammed” pyramid over the “great” one.
What do you make of this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
A reporter in Egyot for Fox News described the protests as “secular” and opposed to Mukarak but not the government.
I wonder how much of this is related to the many reports that the Egyptian government has long blamed the people’s ills on “The West”, being unwilling to take responsibility themselves for promting a failed culture. In that they sound like Mexico.
Wretch @ 7
I had the opportunity to be Pakistani President Abdul al Haq’s personal helicopter pilot on his state visit to a US aircraft carrier in 1987. (Ironically just a few months before his death in a mysterious plane crash.) Meeting the guy was transformational for me. From my pollyanna middle class upbringing, I had never met anyone who I was sure had killed people with their bare hands or ordered them to be killed (I am referring to amoral political or criminal killing, not the many honorable war veterans I grew up with). You could see it in his eyes and it was chilling. It was at that point in my life that I finally figured out there were bad people in the world and they were not going to be intimidated or even influenced to do good by the likes of “feel good” westerners. Now I wish Barak Obama had been my copilot on that flight, it may have given him a perspective he does not have now in dealing with some truly evil actors, his relationship with the excreble domestic terrorist Bill Ayers not withstanding.
Obama Administration Lifts US Ban on Muslim Brotherhood Leader
Published: 01/22/10, 1:30 PM /
by Avi Yellin
http://www.israelnationalnews.com//News/News.aspx/135654
The Barack Obama administration has decided to lift a ban preventing Muslim Scholar Professor Tariq Ramadan from entering the United States. Ramadan, an Egyptian currently living in Switzerland, is a leading member of Europe’s Muslim Brotherhood branch and the grandson of the movement’s founder Hassan al-Banna. The Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization for Hamas and some of the groups that recently merged into al-Qaeda, including Ayman al Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad.
Although the White House asked the court last March to uphold the Bush-era entry ban on Ramadan, the administration has now decided to lift the ban and possibly allow both Ramadan and South African Muslim activist Professor Adam Habib onto American soil. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters that the government no longer views Ramadan or Habib as representing threats to the United States. “The next time Professor Ramadan or Professor Habib apply for a visa, they will not be found inadmissible on the basis of the facts that led to denial when they last applied.”
Hey I am organizing a task force to go to Egypt to help them install a pro Israeli, pro American government, how many of you red blooded chickenhawk patriots want to pack up your guns and follow me?
Obama’s speeches, and spokesman are almost all platitudes. Things like “violence is not the answer”. Sometimes violence is the answer. Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia are two more examples of places he is willing to except corrupt dictatorial rule. Yet he has a lot of advice for Israel. Do these people sit around the White House fire place roasting marshmallows and sing folk songs? The only clear points Mr. Obama makes are about energy, he wants basically no coal or oil, and come to think of it no new nuclear power plants ave been approved either.
How many of you Obama hating paranoid crackpots really know how powerful the Muslim Brotherhood is in Egypt or the chances that the Muslim Brotherhood will take power? You act like they are the only ones besides Mubarak who can act in Egypt. But lets all get paranoid about some evil conspiracy between Obama and The MB so we can look like even bigger morons like all the other moronic conspiracy theories we cooked up.
This is a good strategic analysis of events in the med.
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000022.aspx
RWE @58,
RE “secular:” remember the Left’s playbook with Saddam Hussein? He was “secular.” And this secular-ish-ness meant that he would never cooperate with Islamist terrorists.
The popularity of this defense to Saddam, Chirac, Putin and the UN, as represented by major media corporations’ repetitions of it during the build-up to the Iraq war, suggests that this meme is deliberate camoflage for Islamist terror.
More and more, I’m convinced the Left has harnessed the Arab’s Nasserite militancy to serve as their shock-troops in the Left’s global designs. Which may be the reason why Iraq was such a high-stakes loss for the Left: Bush snatched Iraq’s GDP and its army away from them.
Had he won in 2000, Al Gore would have enforced Clinton’s “Regime Change” in Iraq, just as Bush did. Difference is, he would have delivered the new nation into the Left’s grasp instead.
BTW, I don’t believe Russia is really under Islamist attack. Despite Beslan (which was a high-visibility media product), terror attacks like the most recent Moscow airport affair, are spotty, photos of the aftermath are hazy, and the victims’ poses and wounds are sometimes unconvincing. And…Putin would have gone all “Habu” on the Islamists’ _sses by now if the “war” were real.
Fake but accurate. Wikileaks. AP photoshops. Islamist war on Russia. Whatever!
Forgotten Man,
What do you want him to do launch a preemptive attack (on whom) or act like Dirty Harry and wave a gun around on TV threatening the Muslim Brotherhood? All you managed to do is come up with the typical knee jerk “bomb them into the stoneage” type remark that even a caveman would find absurd.
I can see why you are forgotten.
Using the term “Muslim Brotherhood” right now is dangerous, like using “socialist” with regard to 1917 Russia. We still don’t know what the MB is made up of. Who are the Mensheviks, Bolsheviks, right Social Revolutionaries, left Social Revolutionaries, etc. Size of constituency counts for less than vision and ruthlessness.
This analysis seems to think that the action in egypt is being orchestrated by the army – their way of transitioning power. Interesting analysis.
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000022.aspx
After some 30 years worth of American arms bestowed upon the country, and plenty else picked up also from sources like North Korea, Egypt has a giant military arsenal at its disposal now, a great big massive giant of a military arsenal, and a giant army to match, both greater by far than Israel’s, and ready to deploy anytime by Egypt’s emerging new leaders.
As a US taxpayer I would much prefer Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood receiving $0 of US Federal Government money each year.
W @ 7:
One of the nice things about being President is that it only requires you to pick competent people, not be competent at a task yourself.
What he has to do is get the policy right and then find the right men to do a decent, professional job. Then he should go and play golf. Never once should he imagine that all his credentials mean diddly squat in the game he is playing.
But alas, this particular POTUS has said on record that he would make a better policy expert than his own policy experts. Decades of exposure to suck-ups like Valerie Jarrett have convinced him that he is, wherever he goes, The Smartest Man in the Room (TM).
So he is constitutionally incapable of doing the most basic things you say need to be done. He cannot & will not get the policy right because his worldview is that of a FUBARd leftist. And he cannot & will not hire the most competent people because his galactically expanded ego repels competency like garlic repels a vampire (except in this case he’s the vampire).
Any association with someone who would show him up for the flyweight he is (apologies to the flyweights of the world) would be purely unintentional.
Soetoro, the Community Organizer in Chief, is in a race to eclipse the historic and world-changing misadventures of the Peanut Farmer vis-a-vis Iran. Perhaps the wOn can engineer the appointment of Dr. Al-Zawahiri as the head of the “non-violent ” MB so that they can prevail in the next “democratic” election.
Buck @70,
Ditto! In fact, if our state department extends foreign aid to any of Iran’s puppet states we may have the beginnings of a defensible, nation-wide tax revolt.
As tax-time approaches, whom Obama gives my Federal taxes to is very much in the front of my mind.
Imagine if Britain had taxed her citizens to support Hitler’s Reich, say, in 1942, when the war was undeniably on. History’d have recorded that as a German coup of the Monarchy. Luckily, Churchill and England’s (once-) plucky populace leaned into the gap.
It may fall to America’s remaining plucky, tax-paying citizens to kill this beast.
Its all good. Time mag. yells Obama loves Reagan (even though his supposed own words in “Dreams…” indicate otherwise) and Axlerod announces this morning that everything is going as planned. Team 44 has been working this Egyptian “project” for two years and are “ahead” of it. I guess Biden didnt get the memo or misread it. Is it not a bit ironic that the Iranian regime is calling for support of the protesters and restraint on the govt. side?
JL #47
I couldn’t disagree more. Obama is the US Pres – not that of Egypt. He should always act in our interest.
Helping Islamists in the ME – anywhere – is a fool’s errand.
When they take over Egypt, now after events in the Levant, our first countermeasures should be to shore up Israel.
HB @ 72
Indeed. Carter’s and Obama’s misadventures on the international scene are disconcertingly similar and we will no doubt once again reap the “rewards” for decades to come.
Domestically he’s the Democrat version of Nixon, corrupt to the core with “each new protean change to get elected” to borrow a phrase from Victor Davis Hanson.
Unfortunately there is no Ronald Reagan or Woodward & Bernstein on the horizon. Would anybody care to set an over/under on the average price per gallon of gasoline reaching $5 per gallon by the end of 2012? How about the odds of any meaningful budget cuts being passed before America’s bond rating is downgraded?
Interesting times…
>>>>’ the Muslim Brotherhood, “a hard-line, but nonviolent, Islamic” group.’<<<<<
-
What a stunning remark. Please supply support for this conclusion.
Is sharia law nonviolent?
Is the Taliban nonviolent?
The Muslim Brotherhood's influence on Wahabi’s turned them into terrorists
who kill both Sunnis and Shia with a regional (then global) Ottoman Empire type caliphate as the objective? To say the Muslim Brotherhood is nonviolent is to say Iran is nonviolent. Using proxy’s does not earn you the label of nonviolent.
This is lipstick on a snake.
66. Jonaspell
I didn’t say bomb anything. If you have eyes you saw him bow the the Saudi King. What does that show the world? Obama keeps sending money to Kabul while cash leaves the country by the plane load. The Afghan President’s brother is a drug dealer and a thief yet there is no condemnation. No firm stance has been taken to support the independence of Lebanon from Syria or Iran.
I think the threat of violence against Syria would be a good thing. Syria is only slightly better than Germany under Hitler. I think leaving the current government in charge in Zimbabwe is a crime against humanity yet this fine humanitarian in the White House says nothing which is amazing considering his propensity to flap his lips. Our President is a perfect example of all hat and no cattle.
#27 Granus – “Twenty two months. This is one more opportunity for the wrong people to take advantage of political uncertainty and instability with little concern for cost of doing so, and they will. They must.”
Furthermore, the next 22 months will coincide with the American presidential election campaign, which will engross Obama totally. From now on, you’ll have President Mike Teevee sitting in front of the box as his favourite program comes on – good luck trying to get him to tear his attention away and go to the table to eat his vegetables, let alone waste time on icky foreign affairs. As the world outside the campaign headquarters deteriorates, President Mike’s poll numbers will go down, leading him to work even HARDER on his re-election bid. If you think he’s been passive and uninvolved up until now, just wait until you see him in full campaign mode this fall.
“Never once should he imagine that all his credentials mean diddly squat in the game he is playing.”
All WHAT credentials? Can’t think of many, and those he does have are not terribly impressive.
The POTUS, Barack H. Obama, AKA Barry Sortero (PBUH) is on HIS OWN side. His greatest ally is Himself, His main focus is He.
Everything else is secondary.
His purpose is now clear, his path shall lead him to attempt a second term as POTUS.
Everything else is secondary.
“Axlerod announces this morning that everything is going as planned. ” LOL. “Nothing to see here, move along. We have the situation completely under control. Never mind that we haven’t made any meaningful public statements. There are some things you just don’t need to pay any attention to. Hey look, there’s Sarah Palin!”
Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman has been appointed as the country’s vice president.
nice things to come for the egyptian popole
The danger to Israel from a Muslim Brotherhood takeover is immense.
Throw out the Sunnis will never work with Shia bs (for empirical evidence see the example of Iran shielding Said Bin Laden and other Al Qaida terrorists) A Muslim Brotherhood theocracy offers a back door for Iranian troops to attack Israel through Gaza while Lebanon and the Golan offer two more fronts. De-stabilization of Jordan and the West Bank and bingo Israel is attacked on all fronts, at which point the Jerico option is taken and Damascus, Teheran and several other Arab cities become glass.All while Nero fiddles.
Isaiah 17:1 in the old Book says: The Burden of Damascus. Behold Damascus is taken away from being a city and it shall be a ruinous heap. Interestingly Damascus is the oldest continually occupied city in the world. Maybe not much longer.
#59 Vanguard – “Now I wish Barak Obama had been my copilot on that flight, it may have given him a perspective he does not have now in dealing with some truly evil actors,”
Nah, if he’d been on that flight, he’d have been chanting to himself the whole time ‘Look at me! I am The Great Obama, I soar through the skies! Look at MEEEEE!’ He wouldn’t even be able to remember the name of your distinguished passenger, let alone learn anything from him.
84 Trangbang 68
The danger to Israel from a Muslim Brotherhood takeover is immense.
++++++++++++
Amen. In fact, I think it would be fatal. I don’t see how it could happen without a horrendous war in the Mid East which Israel might well lose.
The Moslem Brotherhood gvt. would have, as stated elsewhere, a powerful military machine, US built, which would be pointed at Israel. Gaza would no longer be under arms embargo and would be armed to the teeth. That’s the south. A very potent and dangerous Hezbollah and Syria to the north, and an Iran which will help all it can. Plus Al Quaida. If they all jump Israel at once, I don’t see how she could survive absent instant, direct, and massive intervention by the US, which will never happen with this administration. If Israel goes down, we could well see a number of Arab capitals and perhaps Tehran disappear in nuclear flowers as a parting gift from a dying enemy. The Gulf of Hormuz would become very hostile to Western commerce. The price of oil would soar to nightmare levels. The world economy would be in grave peril. Meltdown is not out of the questiion. May it not be so, but that’s my nightmare.
Richard
84. trangbang68 I humbly disagree. Israel can whip any of it’s enemies in a straight up fight, Any combination, with support from the USA. What Israel cannot win is the long drawn out propaganda campaign taking place since ’73. Remember Hezz-bo-allah has a place in South Lebanon to attack Israel from because Israel choose to withdraw from Lebanon. MB says that with Egypt, the Arab/Islamic states are strong enough to over run Israel. That is wrong, of course.
The Romans had a bunch of Jews cornered on a hill top a couple thousand years ago. The Jews committed suicide rather then surrender. If the Mooslims even come close to over running Israel, those nuclear tipped ICBM’s will lift off and Arabic-Islam will become a series of craters.
It is the Arabs that make Islam so fanatical. There are more Mooslimes in India and SE asia then in the Arabic lands. Yet the center of gravity for Islam is in the Arabic lands. Kill enough Arabs and it is inevitable that the center of gravity will move East.
That will give Islam the chance for a make-over. No telling how that will work out, but it’s almost certain to be an improvement. It can’t get much worse.
kids-lawn@30: It couldn’t be helped.
Yes it could.
We’re on the same page Richard. Anecdotally, in 1973, the Yom Kippur war ,with Israel absorbing the initial blow and driving on Damascus and ready to annihilate the Egyptian Third Army in the Sinai, the story goes that the Soviets were mobilizing paratroopers to aid the Arabs. Nixon, despite Watergate woes, put the US military on red alert and the USSR backed down. The motive allegedly of Nixon’s action was the words of his Quaker mother to “always be kind to the Jews, they’re God’s chosen people”
Everybody else sees doom and gloom. I see opportunity. The Mooslimes are terrible fighters. Europeans have been beating them in a straight up fight for the last thousand years. That is why Mooslimes don’t want straight up fights. No, a war will bring them out of hiding where they can be killed. Then we move on.
Trangbang, re your thoughts on Damascus as well as your combat service in Vietnam, you’ll be proud to know, foxnews just announced that the honorable senator john Kerry is on his way to Damascus. Remember ‘shuttle diplomacy’? Here comes ‘scuttle diplomacy’ –as in, American interests.
Few folks have any idea how much treachery this man has piled up –on the record, not to mention ‘off’.
Some (including me) date the front edge of the collapse of the free world’s winning hand in the mideast to the Pelosi entourage tripping off to Damascus as her first move after taking the House in the 2006 elections.
***
CAIR spokesman and USA citizen Ahmed Rehab is speaking live from Cairo on Foxnews now. He is criticizing Obama for his ‘support of the dictator Mubarak’.
Last time I checked, the US of A provided, free of charge, a significant percentage of the Egyptian national caloric intake free of charge, our thanks for no longer warring against Israel.
With global food supplies low and prices high, this should be a very significant bargaining chip. “Play along or your people starve even more.” And a hungry man is a dangerous man; a hungry nation is not a peaceful nation.
Would Obama have the balls to tell a new government in Cairo, one lead by the Muslim Brotherhood, no more food? Seems to me that is a leverage that could bring down any government there.
As a side effect, at some point, the US will abandon our ludicrous ethanol program, if only to create spare food for export and to relieve domestic food price inflation.
Analysts said the [Obama] administration will likely have to figure out how to accommodate a movement that is openly hostile to Israel…
That’s a most curious statement, seeing that the Obama administration is, itself, “openly hostile to Israel”—even more so than to its other “allies”.
(Yeah, I know. No one’s supposed to say things like that. Especially to anyone who thinks this president’s still wearing anything….)
As for the ME upcoming war, we will—once again—see whether quality can get the better of quantity.
And boy oh boy, there’s one heck of a lot of “quantity” out there. (And as for “quality,” Iran and Hezbullah are no slouches, alas.)
But it will have to be fast. Otherwise, Iran will be able to deny the second Holocaust. (What am I saying? They’ll be celebrating it.)
Yes, it will have to be fast (unless there’s any jokers out there who believe that in an extended war, Obama is going to pull an airlift a la Nixon), which means….
69. Carl Sesar
I wouldn’t put too much money on Egypt in Egypt vs Israel bet. They have always has a bigger army and have always lost. The nearest they came was the last go-round; a semi-surprise attack that stalled as soon as the initail phase was completed. Most armies run by dictators do not foster independent thought or action thus, when encountering a situation that requires as much, they lock up and await orders.
In a fight between a Marine with a knife and a single-shot .22 vs a fully-equipped platoon of Egyptians my money would be on the Jarhead. The Israelis would be fighting for their lives and loved ones, the fellahin would be fighting for their masters.
Of course it is just *barely* possible that Egypt could shock us all and actually hold democratic elections and *not* vote in Sharia law and *not* increase support for Hezboolah.
What is the basis for such a hope? Certainly not any actual knowledge I have of Egypt. Just sort of the same inchoate hope for rationality and the preferability for western culture, that I think motivates many of wretchard’s more hopeful suggestions for the future. Maybe there are enough people in Egypt who would rather eat well and play on the Internet, rather than herd goats and send their sons to the border wearing suicide vests.
38. blert
Actually recent studies have found that the Egyptians have the same giant aquifers in their western deserts as the Libyans do. The Egyptians don’t need to wait on any new tech to green over their deserts anymore than the Libyans do. Qaddafi has it right on the water score.
68. Harry
This analysis seems to think that the action in egypt is being orchestrated by the army – their way of transitioning power. Interesting analysis.
http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000022.aspx
………………..
– Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Sami Annan was huddling Saturday with five of his deputies after returning to Egypt from Washington, D.C., a senior Egyptian military official told CNN. Annan and other top officials were attending high-level talks with Pentagon officials when this week’s unrest broke out. Those meetings were cut short Friday so Annan and his colleagues could return to Cairo.
http://www.kaj18.com/news/egyptian-protests-more-widespread-31-killed/
93. Barry Meislin
“Yes, it will have to be fast (unless there’s any jokers out there who believe that in an extended war, Obama is going to pull an airlift a la Nixon), which means….”
Nukes, there, I said it. The only other option is surrender which I just don’t see coming up as a viable option.
On the upside the Iranian troops would have a very circuitous route to travel to get into position. This would give the IDF a heads-up at least.
I don’t think the IDF is much worried about an invasion by the Hezzies or Hamas, fighting real soldiers in a real shooting war is much harder business than gunning down school kids or popping loose with a random missle. Terror is the tactic of a failed miltary, or an inherently lazy culture; an invasion requires a successful military. There are none in the Arab world. They might be able to overload IDF capacity with numbers, I don’t ever see them outfighting the Israelis.
Frankly, I don’t see them getting along well enough to conduct a concerted attack any time soon.
97. Charles
Perhaps the best short-term scenario for is a military coup a la Turkey, this still has its problems but at least will not instantly empower the MB.
95. Josh
Like you I can hope, OTOH I don’t buy Lotto tickets because I don’t like those odds either.
It is in the nature of muslim armies that they are normally rigid — in the style of the Soviets.
If American thinking has stuck, then Egypt would have the paramount Arab military – by far.
However, I don’t think that Arab psychology has changed a bit. In which case, even advanced American equipment will not avail the Egyptians.
( This was a constant Russian refrain, too. Arabs make their military gear look bad. )
It has been a common experience that the Arabs can not maintain advanced weaponry. They are dependent upon Russian or American shop support, as the case may be.
BTW, any advance into the Sinai by Egyptian tank forces is a Treaty breaker. Don’t forget that. By Treaty the bulk of the Sinai is de-militarized. We even have a battalion of US Army forces in the Sinai at all times, IIRC.
If the Egyptians want to use their muscle profitably it would be to spank Libya or Sudan. Any serious attempt at Tel Aviv will jut bring ruin to Egypt.
U.S. To Egyptian Military: ‘Exercise Restraint’ – Defense News http://t.co/ZtKlRCW
apparently Mubarak’s sons rejoined Ms Mubarak in London
Some say that that pan-arabism will prevail over islamists for the aftermaths of the Maghrebin revolts
38. blert
Actually recent studies have found that the Egyptians have the same giant aquifers in their western deserts as the Libyans do. The Egyptians don’t need to wait on any new tech to green over their deserts anymore than the Libyans do. Qaddafi has it right on the water score.
http://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/20047.aspx
http://googlesightseeing.com/2005/06/desert-farming/
http://www.afrol.com/articles/11451
There is concern that the fossil water will run out in 100 years or so — but imho the technology to replace it will have long since been installed.
Egyptian army actually fought well in most of the 1973 war –get a picture via this excellent account of the Battle of the Chinese Farm:
http://www.historynet.com/yom-kippur-war-embattled-israeli-bridgehead-at-chinese-farm.htm
bl…
The Russians fought effectively against the Germans and the French.
The problem is as old as Austerlitz: flexibility of arms is poor from Imperial Russia, to the Soviets and right through to now.
War is chaos. America and Israel practice it every day.
Hence our tank assaults are hell to stop once they get going.
———
Any Egyptian violation of the Treaty is going to evolve into mobile warfare in the Sinai against fanatically motivated Jews. The prospects for Egypt are grim.
Any such ‘project’ will bring down the Egyptian government that launched it.
While the Battle of Chinese ( Japanese ) Farm took a toll on the IDF — the beat down on the Egyptians was terrible. In the ultimate, IDF elements had bagged TWO Egyptian armies.
Bullheaded Sharon saved Golda’s bacon. ( Is that Kosher? )
#98, “fighting”…”outfighting”….
Yes, well….
But the problem is those darned missiles. Scores of thousands of them. From the North. From the SW. And if Jordan kicks the can, from the East, most likely (not that this is absolutely necessary—though from the POV of placing a vise-like stranglehood on the Zionist Entity, it has a certain esthetic attraction).
Are those missiles accurate? (Do they have to be?)
And what’s in ‘em (or on ‘em?)
This is terror, ver. (what version are we up to? 8? 9?)
Israel had NO answer to those missiles in 2006 nor in 2008, at least none it wanted to attempt. These days, people like to repeat “Iron Dome” like a mantra, but no one knows if/how it will work against indiscriminate and remote rocket/missile launches.
Total and utter and indiscriminate devastation—that which was not attempted previously, in spite of all the jackals’ yappings—may therefore be Israel’s only possible response (under the assumption that survival is a goal).
But will Israel be able to survive the aftermath? (And will Jewish communities outside Israel be able to survive the to-be-expected backlash?)
Obama will be in office until Jan. 2012, which means there’s a 23.5-month “window of opportunity” for Israel’s partners in peace (and their pals) until the current US administration is on the street—the situation having been made that much more fraught due to Lebanon’s recent capitulation (or “capture”).
A race against time?
File under: “Interesting times.”
# 100 blert
Our Task Force Sinai consists of an Infantry Battalion and a Support Battalion, plus other elements. We provide more than half the international force, and all the support for it. It is NOT under UN control, because the Russians threatened to veto the original UN force. To be honest, after the UN cut and run to give Nassar a free hand to attack Israel in 1967, and the UN’s ongoing history of active hostility to the existence of Israel; a non-UN force is better.
However, our forces are there solely at the sufferance of Buraq Hussein Obama. The continued presence of that force may be a strategic indicator of some importance; but one cannot rule out the possibility that the US forces would be regarded as expendable in pursuit of the NCA’s objectives.
Subotai Bahadur
Should be “until Jan. 2013″. Sorry.
blert/104; i think what’s worrisome is the plot of competency of Israel’s enemies. Each major shoot-out, including the 2006, they have gotten better.
BTW, Bullheaded Sharon saved Golda’s bacon has got to be the best line of the day –
bm/108; we have to watch the Israeli stock market –it has been bouyant of late, which dovetails with a couple firsthand reports i’ve gotten from recent visitors there that Israelis don’t seem to be too worried. But that was before Egypt blew up, and before Lebanon rolled over for the Hez.
subotai, there’s plenty of blue helmets in the Lebanon right now, as we speak. They are there to prevent Hez from re-arming after the 2006 war. I wish i could laugh, if i could i’d bray like a mule.
People voted for a guy who never even had a full-time job to become POTUS. He brought in a cast of fools, so it was only a matter of time until a crisis exposed us to this weakness. Consider Bush’s appointments to Obama’s. Colin Powell (we didn’t know he was a backstabber yet) to Hillary Clinton. Dick Cheney to Joe Biden. Condi Rice to James Jones. Rummy to Gates is the closest any of Obama’s staff come to matching up.
I thought Obama’s speech on Egypt the other night was weak to the point of emptiness. The Second Islamic Revolution – here we come.
A weakling in the White House encourages America’s enemies all over the world.
YBR @ 88
Perhaps you’re right… if we all start practicing now we’ll have it down if, unexpectedly, we should find it necessary to blend in and pass as a local.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TCunfSdrNE&feature=bf_prev&list=MLGxdCwVVULXeVFNplU9fcmP-YzRW2VrNn&index=1
“… Rummy to Gates …”
And Gates is a holdover, isn’t he?
Teresita, your glyph looks like you have a split personality disorder.
Drudge:
Police disappear from streets…
Gangs with machetes, sticks run wild…
UPDATE: 73 dead; 2,000 injured…
Troops let protests roll…
ElBaradei: New VP, PM not enough…
Mubarak’s sons flee to London…
Looters storm Egyptian Museum…
REPORT: Some looters are gov’t agents…
Flights halted, tourists trapped…
Saudi king slams protests…
Some reports indicate that Egyptian army is locating and locking up the big MB honchos. If true, it may indicate that army is probably going to form an interim government. They are just waiting for enough chaos to facilitate the right conditions to posse as saviors of the day.
El Baradei is inconsequential. If the powers that be (army) would wish him to take over some VIP post, he’d be their lap puppy, regardless of his delusions of a grandeur.
Our main stream media gonks are pretty stupid – the term “drive-by media” is apt…very pathetic.
Alexis # 45 and BL # 48
M. J. Totten talked about this and the MB from October 18 last year – he certainly gets it…certainly saw the seeds of the current situation.
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/2010/10/18/the-muslim-brotherhood-takes-off-its-mask/
The trigger for these riots is the cost of food which is going up big time. (because of an undersupply of wheat and an oversupply of dollars)http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7425
Kirk,
Yes, a holdover, that’s all the Administration has to offer when it comes to foreign policy.
Their focus is “spread the wealth around” and create new generations of FDR Democrats who believe they can rob their fellow Americans through the ballot box.
Obama’s original Cairo speech told us all we need to know about his understanding of America’s place in the world. Of course, his original claim to fame, his sponsorship of the Surrender Immediately in Iraq bill in the Senate, that would have had us withdraw all our troops precisely in mirror or negative image according to the schedule of the Bush/Petraeus surge and turnaround of the war, told most of us all we needed to know about our current C-in-C.
Any of our allies hoping for support from smart Americans are S.o.o.L. right now. All our enemies are celebrating and exercising their new freedom of movement.
Forgotten Man
Bush installed Karzai and backed him for 7 years, so how is Obama any worse. We are not even ex-colonials and have not control Syria or Zimbabwe. So you are accusing Obama of doing exactly what Bush did or anyone else should do, sit on the sidelines & kibbitz. Are you really that scared that they are going to lead some grand jihad out of Egypt?
Jonas
Karzai was NOT installed by Bush. Their national jirga did that. Bush was entirely indifferent.
AFTER he was elected/selected Bush engaged him as the Afghani top man.
Comes the time of re-election, the ‘installed’ man is fighting for his electoral life.
I don’t know if he cheated more than the opposition — but it’s plain that voting in Afghanistan today is like voting for Mayor of New York City in the 1840s. He who cheats most, wins.
Bush backed Afghanistan moderates as against Mullah Omar and his ISI backers.
Yeah, he muffed it. Don’t even get me started on his blown calls. But we are NOT running a colonial empire.
——
The Egyptians have BY FAR the most powerful Arab Army, and Navy and Air Force. Should they desire they could roll clear through to the Atlantic. ( If they can keep their equipment running.)
The Muslim Brotherhood really does believe in running a life-long jihad out of Cairo. It is an odds on bet that the MB will be the power that replaces the current regime. ( c.f. Tehran )
102. Charles
38. blert
A recent post on Anthony Wats may be of interest.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/28/usgs-on-their-mission-to-explore-african-drought/#comment-585662
Here in Australia Michael Mansell many years ago (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Mansell)visited Gaddafi. Bass Stait has oil, gas and energy links to mainland Australia.
The Black Panther movement was alive and well in Australia, though little is heard of it now. They had visited Queensland in the last few years however. The BP movement has become more islamicised of late.
The link to The Oil Drum (What’s Behind Egypt’s Problems)and the discussion on food security has some bearing on Australia. Here the wheat yields (and also fruit/vegetable and land-grown meat) have been low due to drought and now floods, and the rice growers have been castrated by the [River] Murray-Darling Basin debacle and Greens (aided by those in govt with regulatory power but no sense) for some years.
Australia imports little food-wise from her near Pacific neighbours due to their unstable regimes.
lawn-kids@110: Had to check back. If you didn’t, I was going to!
(I guess now is the time to wonder about that Egyptian God of Death statue propped outside Denver International Airport?)
YBR @ 119
Well I did mention it wasn’t the Phantoms, but the Pharaohs.
I have to go practice my walk.
Yes indeed.
35. Bob from Virginia,
No one knows, do they? Given a continuation of the past 26 month’s performance many of the world’s unsavories must wish for reelection. But then if, in isolation, that very continuation makes it seem less rather than more likely so, why risk it? Make the best of the next 22 months. On the other hand, your point is well taken; the MSM will certainly have something (be told what) to say.
The stakes and consequences of this still-unfolding event are incredibly high. Richard Fernandez, linking them to our current (and some long standing) domestic actions, outlines them extremely well in his post immediately following this one.
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/01/29/the-kings-speech/
lawn-kids:
A little metronomic help for your new walk.
Go in style brother.
YBR @ 122
I do what I can
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLUl8xkKSTk
A wider swath of opinions herein than usual. Still so many optimists and we just need to make it to 2012. I’m a bit dumbfounded that several know so little about MB. The peace of them and the rest of the _moderates_ will be revealed for what it really is, well after the cost to reverse is exhorbant.
Wow, USA ever electing a man like our POTUS, surrounded by people goading and supporting him: swamp every good thing yet floating on the earth. How asleep is that? We are not in Kansas anymore, get it yet?
Democracy in Egypt? Our executive n state dept trying to do what about Egypt? Lost is all I can say.
George Washington had wooden teeth but he beat the greatest empire on Earth. Hernando Cortez had a foot fetish, but he conquered the New World.
Washington’s teeth were made of hippo tusk ivory, but never mind. Cortez spoke Spanish with a lisp (Castillian), yet laid low the mighty Aztecs.
So, who wants to start a betting pool on when the U.S. Embassy in Cairo is taken hostage?
What do you make of this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
We’ve been privately training the organizers of this, i.e. the “community organizers,” while continuing to give aid to the Mubarak regime and claiming it as an ally. I don’t object to working toward democracy, but I don’t believe in doing it in this two-faced manner. If we support subversion, we ought to do so openly. We have other Muslim tyrants as “allies.” How will they react to this?
The Shah fell in the 25th month of Jimmy Carter’s presidency. The govt of Tunisia fell and riots brought Egypt to the edge in teh 25th month of Obama’s Presidency.
Now, I don’t for a minute believe taht everything in the world happens because of the USA… but, still, I’m tempted to try an formulate a general principle about weak, apologetic and vain US presidents and what they mean to allies with questionable domestic records.
Re Egyptian mil to 100. Blert, 86. Richard
“The Moslem Brotherhood gvt. would have, as stated elsewhere, a powerful military machine, US built, which would be pointed at Israel”
“Would be pointed”?
It’s worse than you think. For the past 40 years the ONLY mission the Egyptian military has planned and trained for is a massive combined arms invasion of an unnamed country to the Northeast.
A large proportion of their officers, especially the younger guys who were not around in 67 and 73, are itching for a fight. An Egyptian friend compared the army’s attitude to the German vets after WWI who felt that they should have been allowed to win the war in 1918 but were betrayed by the politicians. They really think they would have won in 73 if the US had not pushed the ceasefire on them.
He also noted that the army blames poor Soviet equipment for their failure in 73, and they have since switched to US arms – about 1500 M1A main battle tanks, 200+ F16, and 100+ Apache. They certainly have the kit, the motivation, and the confidence. Israel could win (assuming no concurrent want with Iran/Syria), but it would not be a pretty fight.
Blert, reported a few times here and I think other articles, that Egypt moving troops into the Sinai would be a serious violation of the peace treaty.
Now comes Israel to open the door for them; they’ve allowed Egypt to station troops inside the Sinai DMZ, for some reason (1/31/11).
Curiouser and C, meet stranger and S…
v/130; look on ‘race for the keys’ –see twobyfour @ #123 –
It’s hard for some to believe that true prophecy can actually exist –the implications are just literally overwhelming –but if prophecy is an exercise in identifying patterns and applying them to trends, i’d say whoever wrote ”Revelations” was smart enough not to even need to actually observe it to see the future –