As the President’s party heads for apparent catastrophe, Kevin Drum enumerates 5 myths that President Obama should never believe.
- Obama has squandered the popularity he built up during the 2008 campaign
- Democrats are in for a November pummeling because they overreached
- Obama should have focused like a laser on jobs instead of fiddling around with health care reform
- The public is terrified of budget deficits and has turned against vast government spending programs
- A big loss in November means Obama is a one-term president for sure
Here’s another myth that maybe he shouldn’t believe: that Napoleon once said: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
When you are behind, but feel sure you’re betting on the right combination, one suggested strategy is to double down, because something will come through and the visionary better will be justified in the end. Susan Estrich gives Nevada voters the same advice. Keep electing Harry Reid. “Harry Reid should win. I’m not talking about whether he deserves to win.”
You could spend a lot of time yelling back and forth about who is to blame for all of this. Should we finger the officials who deregulated the markets? The financial institutions that provided risky mortgages? The others that packaged them or rated them? The people who bought them? All of the above?
It won’t get you anywhere at all. You can debate about who is going to fix it or who should, but at the end of the day, we all know that the government is going to be part of the “answer,” whether or not it’s one you support.
That is why Reid should win. Reid can do a lot more for the people of Nevada at a time when they need all the help they can get. He can do that because, if he’s re-elected, the president will owe him.
And then Nevada can get all that “free” stuff. Even with Harry Reid. But politics aside, is doubling down a good strategy? How much weight should Democratic strategists put on the negative feedback they are about to receive from voters versus the assurance of their own vision that they are headed in the right direction? Should they disregard it and hew close to their pure vision?
The strategy of waiting until the luck turns has been around for some time. It is called the Martingale strategy. To some extent the entire leftist program is based on the idea that, whatever its historical record, the big payoff will come in some day. If socialism has always failed, that is because it hasn’t been tried hard enough. Never mind that the Soviet Union, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela are down the tubes. That’s invalid data. Never mind Illinois, forget California. That’s because the whole system hasn’t turned over. But on the day every aspect of change has been put in place the visionaries will hit it big, so big that everyone will forget the flops that have gone before.
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, almost surely, eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it. Of course, none of the gamblers in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those who chose to use the Martingale. It is therefore a good example of a Taleb distribution – the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy, but the gambler’s bet still has a negative expected value because there exists a small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss instead. It is widely believed that casinos instituted betting limits specifically to stop Martingale players, but in reality the assumptions behind the strategy are unsound. Players using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.
But if the doubling down in fact results in a Taleb distribution then the Left may be heading for a catastrophic outcome after years of seemingly steady “gains.” The Taleb distribution describes the behavior of bubbles where everything gets better until everything fails, which eerily resembles the situation we see now. Playing this game is generally bad for everyone except for those who “exit the game” early; who take the money and run before the catastrophe unfolds. They are the only ones who can win in such a game. But the problem is that there is only room for a few. All the rest are screwed. If we are in a bubble situation there may be room on the exit strategy for Barack and Harry, but will there be space for Kevin and Susan?
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I fear that Kevin Drum has taken far too much LSD than was good for him.
Great post Wretchard. Liberal social policy and political strategy equated to picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. Note that he WWII folks, by virtue of natural causes, will likely exit in time. Maybe the boomers too. Too bad for the Gen X and Y.
The Ego and Chief still doesn’t understand America. Today he said ” bla,bla, bla we need to re-elect Democrats so I can continue MY agenda”. Everything is based on HIS ideas, HIS agenda, HIS, HIS HIS.
I think he just kicked Democrats to the back of the bus. He can always double down in 2012.
If you are a groupie, after you experience your leg tingling, shuddering. obamagasm…you then listen to the sour notes, watch the teleprompter lip-sync go off timing like a 40 year old Godzilla movie with subtitles, your tin ear picks up all the clunkers…which you got for your cash.
Kevin Drum is one of the Baghdad BobbySoxers. He is still in the throes of his multiple obamagasms, so enthralled he may faint and clearly there is not much blood rushing to his brain, it’s spent elsewhere.
Obama is “the best thing going” in D.C., because his falling like a rock numbers are not as low as Pelosi or Jimmy Carter, or something.
And, if the economy was doing better, then Obama’s numbers would be better. I suppose Willie Sutton would have robbed Port-a-Potties if that’s where the money was, and Drum would find the analogy appropriate. I guess we can call Obama/Reid/Pelosi handling of the economy “waste management”…so maybe there’s an analogy there after all.
And there’s absolutely, positively no connection whatsoever to voter anger and the trillions of dollars of deficit mounted by ORP. Because, after all…it wasn’t FIRST on the list of angry voters…who, given the laundry list of sins of omission and commission by MoeBama, Curly Reid, and Shemp Pelosi…if you aren’t FIRST…all the rest don’t matter.
Look, I have nothing against Drum or any of the other tingle legged groupies. They can fawn ad faint and feint all they like. Just remind them to hang up their Nehru jackets and polyester leisure suits when they get home.
Most games are not zero sum, but it’s starting to look like that.
Wretchard says in reference to Estrich’s endorsement of Dingy Harry: And then Nevada can get all that “free” stuff.
Wretchard’s gambling metaphor is reinforced by Zombie’s new essay comparing the present administration to a cargo cult (includes some interesting videos of cargo cult airports and worship rituals):
http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/10/27/barry-o-he-go-the-cargo-cult-presidency-of-barack-obama/
Lets not be suprised when the Democrats hold on to many more seats than expected. They are playing for keeps, and are rigging the election in many polling locations. President Clinton let it slip in a piece I saw on ABC News last night, where in response to a reporter’s question on how the Dems will fare once they loose control of Congress, replied, “I wouldn’t get too confident we will lose. We can still pull it off, if we want it bad enough”
Hmmmm…
sometimes the “losers” don’t go away
link
November 2 may bring a catastrophic outcome to the Democrats (or may not). The critical question is, if the Republicans win a tsunami election, what will they do with their winnings?
There is an eerie and deep similarity between the adherents of progressivism and the votaries of Islam — it has been noted here many times before.
Both ideologies continue insisting that their vision of utopia just hasn’t been tried yet, at least not adequately. For the Left this means, even in the face of more than a century of bloody failures and mass murder, it’s worth another go for the Marxist Holy Grail. And for the slaves of Allah — a thousand years of mayhem, oceans of blood, destruction of superior civilizations, and genocide is not enough. Among the Muslims festering in their sewage seeps around the world , it never is “Is Islam the answer?” but rather “More Islam!”. Can we, should we further attempt accommodation with these civilizational enemies? It’s a question that needs asking.
A quote sometimes attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville, but more likely derives from works of Lord Woodhouselee (Alexander Fraser Tytler, 1747-1813), a Scottish Jurist.
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money”.
Living under socialism is like walking around with a piano on your back.
Just roll the dice
And in a trice
It’s seven come eleven
It’s Kingdom Come
Bang Kevin’s drum
For soon we’ll be in Heaven
Where all are free
And liberty
Is there for just the taking
And government
Is heaven sent
Though data needs some faking
But nonetheless
It’s on we press
To socialist Nirvana
Yes all we lack
Is one strong back
To carry the piana
November 2 may bring a catastrophic outcome to the Democrats (or may not). The critical question is, if the Republicans win a tsunami election, what will they do with their winnings?
The worst mistake would be to try and take the Democrat’s seat at the table and play the same lousy game under the same old bubble distribution of outcomes. That only buys them the chance to hold the bag. If the Republicans do this Obama will be laughing at them in 2012. What they have to do is send for a new deck of cards and look up the sleeves of the dealers. Or better yet they should go out and get a job instead of playing in that rigged casino. But at all events, business as usual would translate to “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”.
I once watched a man (he appeared to be German from his dress and manner, though I didn’t hear him speak) walk up to a roulette table in Vegas and throw a crisp $100 bill down on Red. The spin came up Black. He threw two $100 bills down on Red. It came up Black a second time. He threw four $100 bills on Red. It came up Black. He staggered away from the table, down $700 in about 90 seconds.
I only wish Barack Obama was losing our money at the same rate. My German Vegasite was on a pace to lose about $250 Million per year. Obama burns through that in the time it takes to decide which iron to use on his first fairway shot of the day.
It looks like the Democrats will win with Brown (failed former California Governor, and Major of a failed city, Oakland, CA) and Boxer (a failed “everything”) in California again this year. Then, California’s can prove their “Martingale”.
However, I will not be here to see the result. After growing up and living in California all of my (non-military) life, we’re finally leaving the state. Have talked about this for at least 10 years, the kids are out of college (or almost), and with the socialists firmly in control of this bankrupt state, it’s time to realize any value left out of my 19 year old house and move my company and household – to anywhere else.
I won’t stay here for four more years of Democrat socialism. California has been first into, and last out of every recession since I was in grade school. I haven’t got enough productive years left to wait-out another California recovery. The left-wing Dems and their public employee unions have finally eaten the “seed corn”, and there will be nothing left of the public sector to pull California out of the whole that 30 years of socialism has left behind.
Bye .. Bye leftists. I know that you’re glad to see conservatives like me go. Oh, and yes, I’m taking my corporation, personal income taxes, property taxes, 40 cent a gallon gas taxes, 10% sales tax revenues, and so forth – with me.
Outta here next spring.
Old Salt
This is like the cartoon with the kids selling lemonade. The sign says “Lemonade $20.00 a glass.”
One kid looks dejected at the lack of business but the other one is saying “Look, we only have to sell ONE glass!”
The Left only has to sell ONE glass. Every friggin’ Day, Every friggin’ Year. To Everybody.
Old Salt 16:
Well, good for you. I lived in Calif for 10 years. Owned two houses there. Had some of the best and worst and most interesting times of my life there. Had the best job I ever had there. Got my pilot’s license there. Now work for a company HQed there. Love the place, or at least parts of it. Still have many good friends there.
But what you are planning to do has to happen if we are to have a hope of ever straitening things out. And I hope that happens elsewhere too. That is going to be a big issue for the Tea Party faithful in places where their favored candidates lose: how do they express their displeasure. One answer is with their feet.
We keep hearing how Caifornia is 1/6 or 1/5 or some percentage of the US economy and we can’t afford to let it go down the tubes. We can if we take our ball and go home to another state.
Old Salt, if you need a realtor in the LA area email me, tamquam@excite.com
#10. Morton Doodslag
I think the essential problem consists of having idiots in high positions of power who are convinced that they are geniuses. They tend to be incapable of coming up with any solutions to a problem other than those which caused the current problem to begin with. If taking drug X causes you to be sick…the answer is to take more of it.
And who are these wonderful people who are entitled to rule us all? Oftentimes its a family business. In New England it is the Holy Kennedies. In Alaska it is the House of Murkoswi.
Its time to throw them all out of office so they can go back to doing things that will provide society with the highest social utility they can provide–selling crack or their crotches to anyone with a $5 bill.
How to Not be Lost
Say you find that you are lost.
(1) If you have a good map, and are Conservative, then:
Find your last known location on the map. Identify landmarks from the map. Watch carefully as you drive slowly to find a landmark. You will probably need to turn around and go back.
(2) If you have a bad map, and are Liberal, then:
Hold up the map in front of you and identify where you want to go. Identify a map location near your last known point. While looking at the map, follow it while driving slowly, then faster, and faster. Don’t bother to look at the road, as you are lost anyway. Trust the map. There is no need to drive slowly, because this will only delay getting to your destination. With a bit of luck, you will arrive quickly at your destination without turning back.
They’re just smarter than you, and know what’s best –
Hillbilly
Elitists are often missing crucial knowledge, and unaware of it
They can’t even master their emotions.
Old Salt,
Come on over to Texas. Lot of great folks live here. You’d fit right in.
Cheers,
L3
The great unwashed as the saying goes
Old Salt; your comment reminds me of Winston Churchill’s famous rejoinder regarding the France; “France, ah what a lovely country. Pity about the French”. CA is a wonderful place but it does seem to have collected far more than its fair share of Commies and half-wits (but I repeat myself). There are many states that would be glad to have an honest, patriotic citizen. I hope you find a place to your liking.
19. Tcobb, Not only are they idiots, they are idiots out of the same mold. Try this; plot the location that these “high and mighty” went to school on a map. Go through the top posts in the White House and the big shooters in the Senate and House. This has to be the most completely inbred group of ideolouges that have ever held office in US history.
If you were to remove from office just the ones with soft science majors from schools in the DC-Boston axis most of the positions of power in the US governemnt would stand vacant. They are not just idiots; they are idiots asking other idiots (of the same sort) for advice. Small wonder that there are no new ideas coming from DC.
The reason that The Resident (kudos to whoever came up with that moniker, I just love it) doubles down on every challenge is that all of his advisors think EXACTLY the same thoughts, exactly the same way and at exactly the same time that he does. When he floats an idea they already have that programmed response pinging around in their empty heads. They nod sagely and repeat the Holy Writ of Marx back to Him and all are convinced of their Collective wisdom.
The problem is government. It is too big. It has regulations that force businesses to make unprofitable decisions. If enough businesses lose money, the market crashes and there is a depression. Depressions can last a very long time especially if the government passes more regulations to prevent new depressions from happening.
The US was built when the Federal government had almost no regulatory poewr. Now there is no industry in the US that a single regulator cannot destroy.
For example President Obama stopped all drilling in the Gulf on his own authority – with a singlw word. And drilling will never, ever start again unless that is Obama’s will.
So what can a capitalist do? Obviously, buy as many regulators as possible or go out of business and then get elected to office as a Mayor or a Senator or a Governor or get hired to run a regulatory commission.
Net result, we will have a Depression that never ends.
Sadly, there is no possible solution to this problem.
Sadly, there is no possible solution to this problem.
Step back from the cliff, amigo. “No possible solution”? Then how about let’s try the impossible solutions? I hear there are Americans out there who specialize in doing the impossible. Some of them wear a globe & anchor and go by the name “gunny.” Some of them wipe snotty toddler noses all day. Some are probably even on this board.
(duplicate post – deleted – but it was fun to have cloned myself for a minute or two!)
At the risk of being thought by some as totally insane, I take some comfort in having a profound sense that we live in the loving embrace of a benevolent and bountiful creator.
We often forget that, when events fail to square with our expectations.
Reflecting on my own wild and intemperate yute I’m struck by how many times I just couldn’t accept someone else’s wisdom until I had damn well tried some stupid-ass stunt and determined that, yes, it really did hurt like falling from a great height onto sharp rocks, just like I’d been warned…
Sometimes it has taken me four or five repetitions for the lesson to sink in.
It’s in stages, see?
First, I do something stupid, get hurt pretty bad, but don’t see any connection between my dumbass stunt and the pain.
Next, I do the stupid thing, suffer hideously, and have a strong suspicion that there might be a link somewhere, if only I could be bothered to think things through. But there are parties and carousing to do…
Eventually, after a number of stitches and shots, I realize I’m doing something wrong, but I can’t quite put my finger on the specifics.
Suddenly, right in the middle of a gut-wrenching fall from a precarious stunt, I get a flash of insight that this fall and the horrible broken bones and avulsions and hematomas, will result from my own decision to do the stupid stunt.
I’m now at the point in my life where I can actually recognize I’m doing the stupid stunt BEFORE I DO IT!
Next I am really hoping I will get smart enough to NOT DO THE STUPID STUNT.
Where would you say America is on that sort of dumbass-to-smart continuum?
The Martingale strategy is correct. Casinos do indeed have minimum to maximum betting ratios due to it. The problem with the socialist coin is that it is a wooden nickel with two tails and no heads.
28. Mad Fiddler
How I have admired the people who could learn from others mistakes. Or even learn from their own mistakes. Your rendition about matches my own learning curve.
#24 Anton Bravo Nice post. The video someone posted of Maher, what a smarmy little punk. Don’t the Russians need to free some hostages in that theater full of braying fools?
Here are some reminders about what to shut up about.
Mad Fiddler #28
Do you know Portia Nelson’s “Autobiography in Five Short Chapters”? It’s often passed around at Al-Anon and other 12-step meetings, which is where I encountered it:
Chapter 1: I walk down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I fall in.
I am lost …. I am helpless.
It isn’t my fault.
It takes forever to find a way out.
Chapter 2: I walk down the street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I pretend that I don’t see it.
I fall in again.
I can’t believe I am in this same place.
But it isn’t my fault.
It still takes a long time to get out.
Chapter 3: I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I see it is there.
I still fall in … it’s a habit … but my eyes are open.
I know where I am.
It is my fault.
I get out immediately.
Chapter 4: I walk down the same street.
There is a deep hole in the sidewalk.
I walk around it.
Chapter 5: I walk down a different street.
In my case the “hole in the sidewalk” was an alcoholic stepfather and two narcissists in the extended family. Took me some years not only to recognize the crazy repeated patterns in the family but also to break free of them– that’s the gift of grace. As you say, “we live in the loving embrace of a benevolent and bountiful creator.”
Hey Old Salt:
I’m California-born-and-raised and thinking along the same lines as you. Spent the first half of my life in the S.F. Bay Area, second half in L.A.
It’s incomprehensible to me that Cali. is even considering putting Jerry Brown back in the Governors seat, but that’s where we stand. Many of my oldest friends have already high-tailed it for less played-out locations (Washington State, Texas, Iowa, Arizona), I may be forced to do the same.
Makes me sad…Sad to see the dysfuntional joke liberals have turned one of the World’s truly beautiful cities (SF) into.
Hey Wretchard! Semi seriously, what’s the market like for web-programmers in the Austrailia/New Zealand area?
Well, the wisdom of doubling down really depends if there is a fallback position, if one can accept ones losses and move on. Is there a center that the left can retreat to and negotiate with some of the right? I’m not an American, but it seems to me that’s no longer the case in the US. Things have become too polarized and once the center ground is gone, it’s a case of one or the other side winning and destroying the other in its present institutional forms. Seems to me the left is in a bind because there just isn’t any more money or credit to keep building government (and if that’s right the left must wither) and there probably isn’t availabe to them the coercive power to confiscate more if much more could reasonably be taken, or to shut up the opposition. HOw many in uniform would do that job? In this situation there is only one course, find out if this really is the situation, and double down. Rational options aren’t always available. Trainwrecks are sometimes inevitable because there is no way to radically rework the system until it crashes. If it is fated to crash, find out. But once it does all kinds of new possibilities will emerge and people should start thinking about those instead of getting stuck in visions of the end.
#22 Leo
I already have a standing offer anytime I want to move to the Dallas area. But remember, I’m a native Californian – meaning I’m spoiled with the California weather. Texas is grand and large, but it ain’t Southern California.
Have lived a half-dozen different states, lived in Pennsylvania with 2 months a year of decent “California climate”, 7 months of mostly frozen, and the rest of the year, hot and humid. (Wife loved it though.) Have lived in the Southeast – more hot and humid, not quite as cold, lived in Plano a short time – pleasant winter; visited Arizona .. um.. nuff said, lol. Idaho has always intrigued me. I LOVE Alaska, but then after I’ve stopped drinking …
I can handle inclimate weather, but I don’t want to.
And yes, Texas is pretty darn attractive. Kind of reminds one of what a “democratic republic” once used to be. I was looking at Tennessee too – hey, if Arthur Laffer thought enough of Tennessee to relocate there from California, he knows a few things about economics; definitely have to consider Tennessee. Then I read BLOGS about crime and other problems.
Seriously “shopping”; it might end up being Texas. Want to pull the kids and their families along with us if I can.
Thanks .. OS
sssshhhhhh!! Don’t wake them up.
sol @ 25– invest overseas, or short the US. The more predictable Obama is, the safer the bet… tho lots of others will see it so the returns won’t be great.
Andrew @ 20 — the Lib winds up in Obama’s ditch, right?
Yes, there is. If the Left wanted to have a moderately large welfare state with a scattering of feel-good regulations and plenty of support for moralizing, they could have that. America circa 1995. Even with the economic fiasco they’ve hatched, we could get back to there in a fairly short amount of time if the Left really did move to the center and agreed to help dismantle the worst of their bad ideas.
The problem is they weren’t and aren’t content with that. They want their Leftopia, all of it, and aren’t going to accept anything less, no matter how unobtainable their ersatz paradise really is.
So they’ll force a trainwreck. And you’re right, after that, all sorts of new possibilities will emerge and we should get ready for them. God knows we will have bought those possiblities at a fearful price. We better not waste them.
If the Left wanted to have a moderately large welfare state with a scattering of feel-good regulations and plenty of support for moralizing, they could have that. America circa 1995. Even with the economic fiasco they’ve hatched, we could get back to there in a fairly short amount of time
-I’m not so sure. I think the post-war left’s ideology (individual politicians can always be pragmatic, but it is the ideology that drives things over the long term) constructs itself on some assumptions that are just not realistic in the long run, and that necessarily portend a crash with reality, notwithstanding various real achievements of the welfare state historically.
What makes you think there can ever be a steady-state Welfare state, one that perfectly balances competing forces, like production and consumption, so that there would never be an erosion of its basis through the erosion of creative forces? Perhaps the ideological problem we face today is the very notion that welfare states exist to balance competing forces, like the supposedly competing claims of equality and freedom, so that the left cannot help but make dubious distinctions between individual freedom and collective equality, pitting one off against the other in ways that inevitably polarize instead of integrating.
Anyway, if the welfare and regulatory state were to stop growing, how would the left continue to define itself as the left? WOuld they last as a political force as the advocates for always carefully balancing established claims? No, I think they are compelled to continue to take sides over unfolding events and this inevitably reveals the limits of their basic operating assumptions, if these are indeed limited, a revelation I think is happening now. That’s not to say a new left can’t and won’t rise from the ashes of the present train wreck, one more keen to integrate an understanding of market freedom with the need to respect human moral equality and our basic existential needs.
IMHO, Drum is correct in one sense — it’s mostly the bad economy that has turned Americans against the Democrats, not a voting public which is fiscally conservative and anti-big government. In other words, the Dems are losing because they tried to increase the size of government at the wrong time — a time when we are broke.
This is why conservatives must stay in the field after the election is over. To paraphrase a certain ballet dancer, we can’t let this economic crisis go to waste.
It seems Drum has a genetic flaw;
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/newsrel/soc/10-27LiberalGene.asp
Who would ‘ave thunk it?
Socialism is, of course, based on an unsound principle, essentially, that it is human nature that I will look after you before I will look after myself.
So it has had to fail and ultimately always will.
The only success it has enjoyed has, in common with all un-real or crooked schemes, been when it distributed the wealth built up by other people working on more realistic principles.
Salt Lick, the question is “Why is the economy bad?” Here is the clue the left refuses to see;
http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofarecession.html
The only thing Socialism is good for is allowing Tyrants to gain power. Period. History is full of examples of Socialism providing a vehicle for Tyrants.
Everything that makes America a superpower is driven off the economy. Destroy the economy and you destroy America.
Was Senator McCarthy correct? We have an illegal President presiding over a Socialist Congress. Was it all an accident?
Thin of that when you read about rigged voting machines. Remember it was Stalin who said something about it’s who counts the votes that matters.
“And then Nevada can get all that “free” stuff.”
Nothing from Washington is “free.” Socialists always forget that. It’s YOUR money the Federal Government is handing back to you in the most inefficient way possible. And who are they to “give” us anything? If they took less of it, we would be able to keep more of our own money. Wouldn’t that be refreshing? The days of big spending are over starting on November 2nd. The Democrats are going to have to deal with it.
Old Salt @ 36,
But remember, I’m a native Californian – meaning I’m spoiled with the California weather. Texas is grand and large, but it ain’t Southern California.
I understand. Since I teach 3 months a year at Stanford, I can appreciate the feeling.
But then I figure my ancestors left some of the most beautiful places in the world (Bavaria, Ireland, Italy) and ended up here, best as I can tell driven by a desire to be free to live the life God desired that they lead. Somehow, that freedom – or some small kernel of it – has been preserved here.
Not to say this is the only place in the world, or the US. The world is filled with interesting places and great people. But having lived across the pond and across the Pacific, as well as other places around the state, I always have felt drawn back here. A lot of that draw is family, of course, but there’s something else as well. Particularly to Houston, which has a culture unlike anywhere else I’ve even been. For a city of 4 million to be so open to outsiders is a truly remarkable thing. At the core, the lack of centralized planning (i.e. zoning) probably has something to do with it. But it’s still the people. The beautiful scenery you can visit; the people are harder to move. Kind of counter-intuitive, but true.
Anyway, I’m sure you’ll thrive wherever you end up. Take a look at Houston, though. We’ve been built by people like you. And it’s got a lot more going on than meets the eye of the traveler who drops in for a meeting or a convention.
Plus, while the weather stinks for 4 months a year, that will probably drop to 1 month during the coming global cooling.
.
Cheers,
L3
43. stoicheion– Salt Lick, the question is “Why is the economy bad?”
Yes, stoicheion, I agree. We need to use this crisis as a teaching tool and begin a constant and heavy drumbeat blaming this bad economy on bad policies. That kind of education can serve as a cushion against the tendency of some in the population to overlook bad policies during good times.
Old Salt, East Tennessee is glorious from bristol all the way down to Chattanooga. Can’t escape the humidity though. No state tax either. Mid state near Cookeville is great too. Areas around Nashville are very nice with access to a very beautiful and fun city.
My annual minor league trip took me through the Bristol TN area a couple of years ago and it was, as Vol says above, beautiful, if a bit humid.
On the other hand, Old Salt, anything area can be difficult or dangerous and for that matter I lived for nearly two decades in Detroit (actually in the city) and my neighborhood was fine; I left because my landlord was foreclosed or I would have stayed on.
“Reid can do a lot more for the people of Nevada…”
Reid has been Senate Majority leader for 4 years. Nevada unemployement is 14% and there are abandoned / foreclosed houses on every street.
I don’t think most people in Nevada want any more favors from Harry.
“If the Left wanted to have a moderately large welfare state with a scattering of feel-good regulations and plenty of support for moralizing, they could have that. America circa 1995. Even with the economic fiasco they’ve hatched, we could get back to there in a fairly short amount of time.”
Hmmm. No. I think the problem with this view is that our progressive betters have simply taken advantage of our good nature for way too long and we finally realized it. Back in the day, it was, “hey lets help old people by supplementing their retirement and their medical care”. Sure, we said. “There are people out there who cannot get health insurance because of childhood disease, etc.” We all make enough, lets help ‘em out we said. “Lets correct some longstanding race based inequities in this country.” Noble idea we said. “You know, I think 8 hours a day of physical work is fair and humane. There are people out there whose only possible market contribution at the beginning of their working lives is their time and their strong backs, so lets ensure they have legal protections and the means to collectively negotiate their recompense.” Fair enough we said. Only a hard hearted bastard could object to such practical measures, and after all, we are the richest country in the world, right? You see where I am going with this, these basic ideas enjoyed the consensus majority support of the electorate for many years.
The problem, for me anyhow, is that after 35 years of either serving (military) or working and contributing, nobody ever even said “thank you”. Instead, we are branded as “racists” for simply wanting to have some boundary on the goverment’s subsidization of people’s lives at our expense. We are called “Reich Wingers” for actually demanding some accountability and means testing for the money that is extracted from us. And we are branded as “angry” for expecting our elected officials to adhere to the strictures and limitations of our founding documents not only in their public administration, but in their own lives as examples to the rest of us. It is now unreasonable and mean to object to public sector unions and their six figure salary leadership. The guy who has to go initially go to work with his strong back because he lacked means and opportunity has morphed into millions of people who stole here from another country in the middle of the night and now demands all of the aforementioned rights and benefits.
They have taken the kindest, most generous, altruistic reasonable people in the world, people who would give you the shirts off their backs, people who went at their own risk to liberate other countries from totalitarian slavery time after time (most times at the behest of Democrat leadership by the way), and who have created probably the world’s only workable multiracial society, and they have denigrated and abused them in their continuing quest for some boundless utopian progressive model where some have to produce and others don’t, according to elite opinion. And I believe we have finally woken up and had enough. So no, I don’t think we can go back to a more genteel liberal time. Like their union buddies at GM, the progressive elites have attacked the goose that lays the golden eggs. They have taken advantage of our extreme good nature once too often, and called us ugly names while they did it. And while I don’t think this will be the end of their exaggerated influence on our lives, I certainly hope it is the beginning of the end.
/rant
Breaking Point:
“These videos effectively counter the liberal media and their efforts to protect the Establishment”
Was not aware that Soros bought Indymac bank and was then given 2 Billion Bucks for his effort!
…do remember that Schumer started the catastrophic run on Indymac by unethically leaking some damaging, misleading disinformation.
JMH #38: “They want their Leftopia, all of it, and aren’t going to accept anything less,”
Well, they can’t afford to accept anything else. Invariably, one policy designed to please a special interest group screws another special interest group. So then another policy is enacted to, if not please that group, then keep from killing it off entirely – like regulations, pro-union, and higher taxes versus the small business coummnity. And that takes more money and a larger government to administer the new programs. And that hurts the economy and so they need more tax incentives and maybe some tariffs. And that hurts another segment of the economy so then…
It’s a death spiral. In aviation called a power spiral, in which the pilot relies on what he “knows” the airplane is doing and should be doing rather than what the instruments tell him and training has taught him.
We are indebted to Obama for giving the fastest known demonstration us the Endless Parade of New Programs phenomena. It’s like the old TV show “Watch Mr. Wizard”: the whole body of scientific knowledge condensed into 30 min.
A Martingale Sang in Maiden Lane…
attracting the attention of a hungry hawk
A Mockingbird sings the same songs it hears;
What happens when all it hears are the sounds
of silence ?
_If_ the US is, as usual, luckier than it deserves
and no natural or ‘Man Caused’ disasters interfere,
the socioeconomic system may stabilize around 1960,
after ‘Civil Unrest’ no worse than that of the 1st
Great Depression.
The US is _Bankrupt_, people, and still in denial,
but not for much longer;
The stockholders of B of A are demanding a look at
the books on mortgages, and they are not the last
who will be shocked, shocked, I say, at what they
see.
Great post Lurky (#2)! This part was especially incoherent:
Note that he WWII folks, by virtue of natural causes, will likely exit in time.
If socialism has always failed, that is because it hasn’t been tried hard enough. Never mind that the Soviet Union, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela are down the tubes.
The concept of socialism has endured for over a hundred years, so I think it’s a mistake to call it a failure. In fact I would argue that it’s a huge success. Of course, not from the standpoint of those unfortunates who have to live under it. For them it’s an unmitigated disaster.
But if we’re talking about the elites who run the show, for them it’s almost always an unqualified success. Socialism is a magnificent con game. It’s the single most successful swindle in history. Elites accumulate massive wealth and power by preaching social justice and income redistribution, and that’s the whole point of it — accumulation of wealth and power.
We ought to stop looking at socialism as if it’s some kind of economic model or a social contract. It’s a scam. Nothing more. But it’s the most successful scam ever. In that context socialism works.
SEIU is in charge of maintenance of voting machines in Nevada.
The Secretary of State is overseeing this excercise.
The Secretary of State was part of the “SOS Program” funded by Soros, he was also backed by the SEIU.
L3/45–re the people in Houston: in about ’61-’62, I was in Houston to conclude a real estate deal. Driving around with the realtor, we saw the Astrodome in the distance, under construction.
I’d heard of it but hadn’t seen it and was astounded by the idea of a covered stadium. When I mentioned this, the realtor replied: “Hell, there’s guys in this town who’d put a roof over the city if they could figure a way to do it.”
The problem with the Left and doubling down is they’ve been doing it with other people’s money and now monopoly money. They are like a nine year old with dad’s credit card. That is the madness of California re-electing Boxer or Alaska writing in that bug-eyed freak. The electorate not seeing the bridge out up ahead at this point becomes pathological .
Obama, Socialism, and Deception
The question of deception adds another dimension to this debate. Let’s say the hypothetical scenarios of Obama’s past socialism spun out by Debs were all true. If that was the case, it would mean that President Obama had systematically and profoundly deceived the American people about his own political history during the 2008 election.
I believe that the president has, in fact, deceived the public in just this way. Radical-in-Chief makes that case in detail. Obama’s deceptive handling of his past undermines democracy.
It also undermines trust in Obama’s claims about the motivations behind his current policies. Americans knew the truth about Ronald Reagan’s liberal past, just as they clearly understood that he was a committed conservative when he ran for president. But the American public has not been told the truth about Obama’s socialist past. That deception matters immensely for our assessment his conduct in office.
– Stanley Kurtz
30. 28. Mad Fiddler
Ok that fixes it.
Mad Fiddler that was my post.
And yes too, there but by the grace of God go I.
Old Salt, if you’re going to get out of California, best to go now before the thieves in Sacramento figure out a confiscatory ‘exit tax’ on those abandoning their realm. I’m sure they’ll come up with an imaginative name and descriptive for it, but it’ll be an exit tax just the same. And don’t look for the federal courts to strike it down, as they too are engaged in progressive social engineering. Somehow, they’ll put blinders on to the real intent of the commerce clause and discover the 10th Amendment in textural interpretation.
Old Salt:
The weather here is surely not as good as CA — colder in winter and hotter in summer — but the scenery is spectacular and the politics (harry is an aberration) is conservative. Not to mention the best soaring in the world. I’m happy in Nevada’s Carson Valley. F
You say that leftists believe “If socialism has always failed, that is because it hasn’t been tried hard enough.”
I think people keep at it because they believe socialism is right.
But it isn’t right. That is the message which needs to be made more often, and more consistently.
Socialism is anti-individual, which makes it anti-human being since we only exist as individuals.
Socialism denies the right to exist for one’s own sake. It requires people to live their lives not for themselves, but for the sake of others.
When the only way to achieve an end is an immoral means—-then the ends is wrong–no matter how hard you try to make it work, no matter how good your intentions.
Why wouldn’t environmentalists regard a reduction in the population of California a good thing, given how it would lower California’s “carbon footprint”? Hence, a recession or even a depression would have a “silver lining” if one has “green” priorities…
The Tea Party and the GOP have concentrated on the issues of big deficits and no jobs.
One unexploited issue is the Nanny State regulations, especially as they affect individual voters. People don’t want to be told what light bulbs to buy or put up with dish washer detergent that doesn’t work. Business people could point out that they face the same philosophy but on an even more invasive scale.
Liberals will continue to double down on petty regulations – too bad so many have civil service positions where we can’t directly vote them out.
I do wish conservative candidates had brought up this issue more.
Whitehall,
Nanny State regulations, Big Deficits and No Jobs are definitely related; like in cause ( Nanny State Regulations) and then effect, ( Big Deficits and No Jobs).
You are most correct in pointing out that the Tea Party people and particularly the GOP have been gravely remiss in failing to point this out.
The economy will not come back until we return to our former ways of having a Capitalist economy where one could actually build and make things, which all too often now the Nanny State regulations either do not permit or make so horribly expensive that there is no economic feasibility.
For L-3 @45: I still feel connected to Los Angeles (friends, colleagues, etc.) but after my daughter went to Rice I saw the charms of Houston. If I ever left California Houston would be among my top alternatives. The Texas Medical Center is awesome. As you always say, “cheers.”
50. Vanguard of the Commentariat – It’s a case of nose..camel..tent. In engineering parlance – a positive feedback system. A disturbance tilts the system from equilibrium and the control loop responds by tilting it more in the same direction. Inherently unstable.
Take money from productive people and activities to redistribute to non-productive people and activities – eventually revenue declines due to loss of investment capital and productivity. The response of the control loop (idiots in power) is to take more from the productive to offset the shortfall. Unexpectedly (to the idiots), the system begins to sputter.
Federal government, the only one that can print fiat currency, has no business in the entitlement business. Welfare is best administered by those entities that can be effectively constrained by budgets. If New York is too generous with welfare, taxes go up, unproductive people rush in as productive people and businesses move out. Revenues decline so the system self-corrects.
The “Left” that we have can’t help this, you’re absolutely correct, and given the way they operate, no steady state is possible. Which get’s to the real issue, that you address in this question:
Yup, that’s the problem, they couldn’t. They’d have to be some other sort of “left” than what they are. And this gets into what Vanguard of the Commentariat was saying about them taking advantage of our good nature. They aren’t really about helping old people and poor people and taking care of the environment and all those other things that appeal to our good nature. Those are just smoke screens and scams they run to provide cover for their real objective, which is power. Leftists don’t want and end to poverty or oppression or pollution. They really just want to tell everyone else how to live.
I guess in the end, my answer is disingenuous. The only way there would be a center for the Left to retreat to is if the Left really was about fairness and compassion and all that. If that was their objective, they could find a self-sustaining set of policies that used the vast wealth creation abiiities of the American people to provide solutions where possible and safety nets where not. But then again, if that really was their objective, they probably never would have gotten to a point they had to retreat from.
But the real Left isn’t like that. I’ve known that since I was in college, but the last couple of years have I think unmasked them to a large number of people. I hope. The fact that they didn’t retreat when it was so obviously the right thing to do is part of that unmasking.
The libwit strategy is focused like a laser beam on the theory that people are stupid. And of course, if you hang around liberals all the time, in your universe, it’s more than a theory.
We’re about to see how the theory works in the real world.
50. Vanguard of the Commentariat
Hey! Cut that out! Quit reading my mind. It’s not fair.
I agree wholeheartedly. My employer was under consent decree the whole time of my employment and EEO was the Bible, with hobbles for the superior and stilts for the short. I did my whole working career, after military service, working with and for people who were advanced out of a mis-placed sense that there was some way to change 90 years of post Emancipation Proclamation discrimination by discriminating more. I wasn’t bothered by that. I was bothered by being labeled mean or racist or greedy or hard hearted for expecting the able bodied to work for a living, by expecting students to put in an effort to learn, by expecting a modicum of decorum as far as making babies in school, and for that matter having only one parent households, supported on my dime.
I didn’t do these things. I worked hard for all that I have. The Resident is intent upon turning me, and any others no longer in the workforce penniless.
As you say, no “Thank You”, and “No, Thank You”. Depends on comma placement for meaning…
tom
70. proreason – yes, yes, yes. The arrogant mind believes that it has the solution for the troubles of mankind in this “veil of tears”, and that the self-defeating proclivities of mankind can be overcome through collective action. Deception is just one of the necessary tools.
In effect, the arrogant mind asserts that “we can nullify the judgment against mankind – by the sweat of thy brow…” and restore a perfect environment in which there will be no unfulfilled need.
Unfortunately, all such grand schemes will be undone by the simplest of notions. Why work hard to contribute to the great storehouse, when you can receive from the storehouse without working?
Andrew_M_Garland @ 20 said:
“How to Not be Lost… You will probably need to turn around and go back.”
It irritates me that socialists call themselves “progressives”. Socialists are NOT progressive! They’re retrograde. Back in the 1920s, their ideology went down the wrong fork in the road and hit a dead end. The more intelligent ex-socialists, realized their error, went back to that fork-in-the-road and proceeded on the correct path towards social progress. The remaining socialists are still stuck on stupid, banging against that dead end and wondering why they can’t go forward.
cellec @ 34 said:
“I’m California-born-and-raised and thinking along the same lines as you. … It’s incomprehensible to me that Cali. is even considering putting Jerry Brown back in the Governors seat, but that’s where we stand.”
I’m a second generation native born Californian (prune picker). During the Great Depression, my grandparents came here in a Model-A pickup truck. They could not bear watching the movie “Grapes of Wrath” staring Henry Fonda because it was too much like real life.
I’m less concerned about Jerry Brown than Barbara Boxer. Jerry Brown is a typical California liberal politician but at least he’s rational and has some intelligence (his Father was an excellent governor). In stark contrast, Barbara Boxer is as dumb as a bag of rocks and a shrieking moonbat. Having her as senator is an total disgrace to the state of California. In essence, by having this stupid woman representing us in the Senate, we disenfranchised ourselves out of one vote (at least Dianne Feinstein has a functioning brain). I’m still hoping that the people of California will suddenly see wisdom and not reelect Boxer the brain-dead (yeah, I’m dreaming).
On the subject of brain damaged socialists, the following article is of interest:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/10/28/researchers-liberal-gene-genetics-politics/
By the way, let us take on those “myths.” And indeed they are all myths.
No. 1: Obama did not have popularity; he had the exact opposite: no one knew him. He did not lose his popularity but rather his approval numbers reflect a new knowledge of what he is.
No. 2: Democrats are not going to be pummeled not because they overreached but because people finally know who they are. It was not a bridge too far but all those bridges to nowhere.
No. 3: Obama did focus on jobs rather than health care because Obamacare won’t improve health care but will kill jobs. He focused on jobs like the Death Star focused on Alderon.
No. 4: The public is terrified of big government and what it can do and one of those things is tax the crap out of us while ruining our currency. The debt is like a flat tire on a rickety bus driven by a drunk on a narrow mountain road. The flat tire makes it worse but we should never have gotten on the bus in the first place.
No. 5: A big Democrat loss on 2 Nov 2010 does not mean Obama will be a 1 term President but it almost certainly means he will act like it.
Anyone besides me see pathos in the most powerful man in the world sitting down with a two-bit comedian — a court jester, really — just days before his party swirls down the drain — a drain of his own design & making? I don’t much like seeing my president called “Dude” to his face by anyone much less the smarmy, callow John Stuart. Yes, Obama brought this upon himself but still it rankles.
Instead of haggling leftoid policy with a court jester why didn’t the President do a rally with the Styker Brigade and a great country rock band? He was just here (Seattle); near as I can tell during his quick visit he ignored Whidby Island Naval Base, Everett Naval Base, Fort Lewis and the Strykers, Trident Nuclear sub base. Why worry about the little black-wearing, Stuart-sneering, metal pierced, coffee-shop, hispter crowd when you are the commander-in-chief of the strongest military on earth?
The president just seems really disoriented to me right now and I’m not all that happy about it– even though I disagree with most of his policies. I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama resigned after the Nov elections. Along with his personal obduracy there is also a certain fragility if not downrigt instability. For all his introspective books and negotiating the worlds of black/white or Europe/Africa/SE Asia he has never really worked which means he has never really had to step into and walk in another man’s shoes. He has never had a shop foreman shout at him in his ear standing next to a five million dollar piece of loud machinery. Has he ever driven a truck? Unloaded a container? Orgainized a two-day box labeling session inside a vast warehouse? This is not chip on the shoulder one upsmanship. If he had done any of these things he would have had a broader sympathy with working men and women he would have some insignt into their hopes. If he had maybe he would go around marking off arbitray dollar amounts of money that section of the rich from the poor, the middle class from the terribel upper class rich. He misses the point that all Americans in some way feel themselves rich…I’m rambling…pity and pathos make me ramble…
Rush just hit a home run enumerating what is effectively the Obamanation’s democratic platform. Look for it on an interwebs near you before the day is out.
p.s. sorry for the bad spelling of # 75 — I’m blaming it on my laptop and its super tiny keys! Where’s our BC 10- minute correction editor when we need it?!- dq
Ben Stein’s late dad Herb predicted in,
“Herbert Stein’s Law”
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” by which he meant that if a trend (balance of payments deficits in his example) cannot go on forever, there is no need for action or a program to make it stop, much less to make it stop immediately; it will stop of its own accord.[2] It is often rephrased as: “Trends that can’t continue, won’t.”
Think the E.U., France/U.K. etc.
Methinks that Caleeforneea, Illinois, Michigan and the rest of the lot will soon enough come to a screaching halt of their own accord. Let’s just be sure we DO NOT bail these bastards out. California in particular deserves Boxer and Brown and the rest of them.
We must get our federal fiscal house in order and let the states rise and fall by their own device.
From Michigan where the air is bursting out of the balloon and an exodus has begun, Thanks
#40 Salt Lick:
In other words, the Dems are losing because they tried to increase the size of government at the wrong time — a time when we are broke.
Which begs the question: Can Americans resist the temptation to increase government budgets in prosperous times? That is the crucial question. This agnostic would apply the biblical admonition from Joseph to the Pharaoh about 7 lean years vs. 7 fat ones: don’t get carried away in the fat years. I have observed that state governments in particular are more guilty of this lack of discipline than the feds. It’s a cycle Americans have to break, but will they?
Ironically, devout liberals are much like devout Christian Scientists who claim prayer is the cure for any illness. And when the prayers don’t work and they’re at death’s door, their only solution is — pray harder! Sad when they do it to themselves, tragic when they do it to their children.
To “Old Salt”: My home state of Texas is big enough to give you any climate you might like, from woodlands to subtropical maritime to desert. Avoid Houston — as has been noted on PJM, the Democrat mayor (now candidate for governor) has ruined the place. I now live in Florida, which is a long way from the People’s Republic of Californicate, but at least you can get here straight from I-10. Thanks to the sea breezes, it’s actually milder here than in Dallas, where I lived before moving here. And like Texas, Florida has no income tax (why do you think Tiger Woods left Cali for Orlando the minute he turned pro?). Regardless, Don51 (#61) is right — the IRS has imposed a ~70% exit tax on Americans for years, so expect Cali and other desperate states to erect their own “Iron Curtains” before long.
W…
Your title is witty and apt:
Ben Benanke is doubling down ( Martindale ) and he does his punting from Maiden Lane. ( back street to the NY Federal Reserve Bank )
( Note the irony in parking the Bank in front of whore’s alley?
( Maiden Lane being an entirely ironical expression for a peer, hard money profession that focuses on taking retail deposits.)
——-
I understand that the Fed is being forced to defend Maiden Lane I, Maiden Lane II and Maiden Lane III in court actions as this fiasco stumbles forward.
——-
Folks, the mega-banks have functionally recreated the money trust: they are a cartel headed by their own creature: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
They price their ‘product’ in unison: money rents.
They syndicated themselves through the MERS front — a RICO operation front and back designed to stiff local governments over recording fees.
The MERS sham also permitted the players to grift themselves their OWN version of ‘recording fees’ — how about that!
Their terms of ‘rental’ are cloned.
Their competition, such as it is, is always outside the cartel: regional banks and lessers.
Further, the club gets together every time the NY Fed Board convenes.
——-
What makes today’s money trust so awesome is that Turbo Tax Timmy — their ex-janitor — has been slotted where he can do the most damage: Treasury Secretary!
——-
We have a front row seat watching the biggest scam in all history.
Unfortunately, the tariff is astronomic.
Hotel California — egads!
Now, Hotel America — indeed!
This site has a very thoughtful readership.
I too would leave CA now, but my elderly mother wants to live her life out here, so that’s that. I have been here 54 years, most of my life, and recall when we had a great education system, a vibrant economy, etc.
Tragic. It could be fixed, but not by electing the same people to do the same things that got us here. I live in a rural area, we are getting the vote out like crazy, but have been so discouraged by being outweighed by the cities, many of us feel this is our last chance.
Lots of city people retire here, and seem to think life is a popularity contest. It’s ‘cool’ to be liberal. They talk about what ‘we’ should do to help our rural poor, but it never extends to them getting their hands dirty. Talk, talk, talk.
Events right now in France look like a perfect illustration for where our progressives want to take us. The question in France is over whether you can retire at 60 or wait until 62. The question which I think most American conservatives and libertarians would ask is, “why is it the government’s business when I retire, or if I do at all?” I mean if I made enough and was wise and frugal, I could maybe retire at 50 if I wanted to. If I enjoyed my work and was fit, I might like to retire at 70 or 80. Due to mind numbing years of government regulation of every facet of French business and labor practice, progressive leadership and group think automatically limit the debate to a question of either more government intervention in my life now or more government intervention in my life later. Once you eliminate any sort of undesirable opinions or thoughts from any equation, you have achieved ultimate power. The people think they have been given a choice, much like a little kid being given the choice of either eating his dinner or going to bed. In France, the government will win this argument no matter what, because there are only two sides of the same question in consideration. Liberte’, but only with Egalite’, that being the dull hopeless miserable wage slave kind of equality that the Left tries to sell as some sort of state of grace. I believe Mark Steyn commented that socialism isn’t so much a waste of money as it is a waste of people.
The fact that they didn’t retreat when it was so obviously the right thing to do is part of that unmasking
-Indeed, though how many people on the right will still elect the kind of politicians who might wheel and deal in preserving a centre with the left? There are so many reasons for politicians to want to do that, but is it really any longer possible in a nation whose accounts are so out of whack, and where the ground has become so bloodied by polarizing resentments and libels? Here in Canada, the centre still holds; though even here, the tired, cultic nature of much the left, and its incessant slanders of the normal, is becoming more and more apparent. The city of Toronto, of all places, just elected a populist “cut the City Hall gravy train” Mayor, despite the brutal attacks on the “fat angry anti-immigrant white guy” that candidate Rob Ford had to endure from the media. In the end, a lot of non-whites must have voted for him; I can’t help but think part of the reason is that the left’s leading candidate was a white homosexual married male with an adopted Black infant son. I don’t think much of our divese multicultural society is quite ready for that yet. FWIW, I think that was a kind of doubling down, however unplanned and just a natural evolution of today’s liberal society.
Don Rodrigo @ 79 said:
“Can Americans resist the temptation to increase government budgets in prosperous times?”
I suspect the prosperous times (1949-1974) were a consequence of the United States being the only guy left standing after World War II and still having abundant natural resources (pre-Peak Oil). Socialism remains popular only if the system has lots of resources to squander. The main reason why the Soviet Union imploded was not because the Russians suddenly became moral but because they ran out of money.
jodetoad @ 82 said:
“I have been here 54 years, most of my life, and recall when we had a great education system, a vibrant economy, etc.”
Again, I’m a second generation Californian and grew up here. The California of my childhood was a paradise.
I knew California was in trouble back in the 1970s when the bumper stickers read:
“Welcome to California, Please go home”
Once upon a time, California was a significant exporter of petroleum (the area around Bakersfield had huge oil deposits). California actually had profitable steel and ship building industries. Many of the ships and aircraft that brought victory in World War II were manufactured in California. It’s no wonder that we Californians got suckered into socialism because at one time we were swimming in money.
It’s my hope that after having hit the brick wall, the people of California will wise up and start challenging the socialists. That process is only just beginning….
I had actually begun doing some research on Houston. I found crime to be ‘way high. I noted an 1993 built home for $23,000; Google Earth showed a vacant lot. Half the land in the area was vacant lots. Real estate, my current gig, is devastated.
Vanguard…
The issue is at what age government sponsored pensions kick-in at the FULL rate.
BTW, France used to have retirement at 62 — Mitterrand gifted his age cohort with a two year drop to 60.
Not given any publicity…
Other employees working for State owned enterprises are having their retirements deferred another two years, too.
—–
Astoundingly early retirements were the big story in Greece. Hence the riots.
All over Europe, this or that labor group has been able to extract astounding public benefits — and early, REALLY EARLY, retirement is benefit No. 1.
Another twist is that working overtime — like 48 hrs a week is typically illegal in most European countries. By illegal, I mean you can be charged, fined and if you keep it up you’ll face jail time.
Now obviously the cops can’t stop independent tradesmen from working off the books — extremely common — rather the sanction applies to assembly and office workers, etc.
The thinking is that there are not enough jobs to go around — so let’s stop upward mobility by way of extra exertion.
As you might imagine it was big labor that pressed for these provisions. As ever more labor was wrung out of mass production/assembly the union bosses reasoned that such was best countered by down-sizing the week — not the labor force.
Cheers.
Old Salt,
Any more parameters on your search? (CA is as varied as New Zealand wrt climate and terrain). Corpus Christi and the Padre Islands are nice if the family favors San Diego, LA or Santa Barbara. With a little work you should be able to search by comparative temperature and humidity ranges and sort by cities closest to your ideal. San Antonio also nice, booming and not as vast as Houston. Does your business need to be close to an international airport? A shipping hub? West coast of Florida has potential too.
I happen to favor the Capes region in Southwest Australia but that’s a different story. The area is a mix of Napa Valley and Santa Barbara. Perth is San Diego. If your extended family has a number hard-working youngsters who can’t find work in the U.S. but know which end of a trowel to hold they will find there’s no unemployment in Western Australia in minerals and energy (and all the infrastructure they need to build every year).
They commute out to the fields for 2-3 weeks at a time, can save more than half of the 3,000 AUD a week they’ll pay to work as a brick-layer or plumber’s novice apprentice, and twice that after they have some experience. Round trip to Perth from SFO is $1,200 (today).. Add a $250 one year work-tourist visa (max six months at a given company – unless and until the company sponsors the youngster’s long term visa, which they will do for anyone with a work ethic) and another $1000 for walking around money while applying for work. Even easier to manage if the family creates a beachhead there.
Politically Western Australia has its challenges (it is being strangled by the Greens) but the country class is starting to find its voice. And it (and all of Australia) is so much smaller than the U.S. that they haven’t accreted all of our excesses.. yet.
Thanks blert. I know, the distinction between public and private sector is blurred, especially in a highly regulated environment. The original idea of the French work week restriction was that for every 7 workers at 35 hours, another position would be created, ie 7 times the 5 hours not worked would create 35 hours for another worker. (Isn’t the liberal mind a wondrous thing to behold?). I believe that restriction still exists and I think it applies across both public sector and private sector jobs, of course under the guise of keeping helpless workers from being exploited by evil Simon Legree type managers.
Sorry Wretch, not trying to hijack here.
Eggplant #85:
I think that another reason for our prosperity was the Great Depression, which taught people that work was not a guaranteed right but a treasured possession that gave life both meaning and honor. People looked at retirement not as an ultimate objective but as an unfortunate inevitability.
The USSR went Tango Uniform not only because they ran out of money but also because they lost the option to go take other people’s money due to the Reagan defense buildup.
I got to Calif in 1978. And at that time the biggest concern was how they would handle the influx of people coming there. For the most part Calif is still living in those days, like a Hollywood starlet partying every night, and can’t grasp the fact that the party is over.
On one blog several years back a guy described how he had gone to a course on refinery management in Calif and one day the Feds came in. The Feds described their new tactic, which would involve fining and jailing the managers of refineries and making sure that the companies could not pay the fines for their employee. When asked how they thought that approach would impact the industry the Feds replied “What us? Us impact a huge multibillion dollar industry simply by our enforcement actions? You must be kidding!”
That’s the way so many people in Calif seem to look at things. “What us? The SEIU, the State legislature, the EPA, the AQMD, the teacher’s unions, us impact a state this big and this rich? You gotta be kidding!”
My grandparents (all four of them) are buried under California soil. My parents were born and raised here. My brother, sisters and I went born here as were my cousins. My son and my nephews and nieces were born here. I ain’t leaving. Screw the socialists. High time we take back our state and make them move.
OT: PAUL THE OCTOPUS IS DEAD
http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/Paul_the_'psychic'_octopus_dies_in_Germany?dpl_id=215989
The soccer prognosticator died in his tank (kind of like Jim Morrison dying in his Paris bathtub, I guess). He was 2 1/2 years old, or something.
Octopii would make excellent Congressmen: they are smarter than the usual variety of Congressmen, and because they only live 2-3 years, there wouldn’t be any need for term limits. Also, when they do die, we can eat them. There’s at least one Greek restaurant on Capitol Hill where they can prepare them.
I wonder if Paul (an obvious gambler himself) would have played the Martingale game?
#88 Ari Tai
Given the local construction economy, that’s sounds pretty good. Can you share any details/links…
Tarnsman @ 91 said:
“My grandparents (all four of them) are buried under California soil. … I ain’t leaving. Screw the socialists. High time we take back our state and make them move.”
I hate to think about how many of my family are buried in Californian soil. Also, I’m with Tarnsman. Screw the damned socialists! The silly bastards can all move to Vermont, Oregon or back to where ever they came from. I want my state back!
I moved to San Francisco right out of engineering school in Florida, bringing my three young sons. We settled in Mill Valley, in Marin County. My sons grew and prospered here with one graduating from Berkeley and another from UC Santa Cruz. Two daughters came along.
We all live in California. I’m the patriarch of my family here, with grandkids. (One girl in in college in Arizona – it’s cheaper than in-state tuition in California!)
No, I’m not going to give up on California. It is my home and my children’s and grandchildren’s home. I may end up a pauper but I’ll go down fighting to make this state a proper home for American families and a contributor to a greater USA.
While it might be rational in self-interest to move to easier living, lower taxes, better civics – California is where I’ll make my stand.
Socialism = expanding the coercive sector of the economy
no, don’t send them to vermont, we’ve got too many granola addicted, birkenstock shuffling carpetbaggers here already, though “howlin’ harry” dean has, thankfully, left for greener political pastures. now we’ve got to work on getting rid of “leaky leahy” and “red diaper baby” bernie, and that’s not not going to be easy, given all the moonbats in burlington, middlebury and montpeculiar.
re: work and holiday Australia visas (for the under 30s)
Start here: http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/49awhp.htm
To get a sense of the area and what’s going on dig thru the local paper:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/ and http://www.wjobs.com.au/
Then look thru the job openings at BHP, Rio Tinto, etc. You’ll find many of them use either the Taleo service or similar (for certified trades and professionals). Put your data online and apply if a job seems to fit. e.g. http://jobs.bhpbilliton.com/ http://www.riotinto.com/careers
If you don’t have a certification in a trade or profession (see the visa FAQs for a list), then the best bet is to (1) get your data online at http://www.seek.com.au, (2) obtain a U.S. passport and (3) the Australian holiday and work visa, (4) review what openings by what companies are available in the trades and services that might match your abilities and interests (there are many smaller local companies employed by the big firms to do infrastructure work) – send them email to see if they’d be willing to see you when you’re in the area (and even if they decline and it looks interesting, visit them anyway), and (5) Get on the plane.
I’d avoid using a broker who offers to place you for a fee (some of these folks that pop up in a web job search are little more than what you can do for yourself). Best to do a little homework and then just go and be your own salesman.
Good luck.
Everyone has their own theory about what this current political climate means. I think more than anything it’s shown the limits to government coercion. The Gov’t can prod us gently in the direction they want, and achieve their goals over time, which has been the prevailing strategy until recently. They’ve lost patience, or deluded themselves that their time had come, and have now decided to push us hard in the direction they want, but when they push there’s a lot of pushback.
If this pushback is temporary, they won’t have to change. But what if it’s not? The left has always supported an ever growing Federal gov’t, because they’ve perceived that to be to their benefit. What if the Federal gov’t changed into an entity that was hostile to, or at least unrelentingly obstructive to the left? When they’re repudiated at the National polls, will some see that their National effort is futile, since I doubt they’ll ever get this much power again, or at least it’s not forseeable. Some will continue to believe, but others may not and begin the process of redirecting their efforts. At some point might they retreat to the States and become Federalists?
That would be a great outcome, as we could then unite left and right around that principle. Return power to the states, and let the 50 laboratories work out the optimum principles for organizing society. Many of the social issues could lose force: abortion is an example. I’m not sure how incensced someone from a Conservative State that outlawed abortion would be if they were still available in Massachusetts. As long as they weren’t participating by funding this, and weren’t forced to allow the procedure within their state, the issue would be defused, at least somewhat. SSM would probably be less of an issue, since those who oppose would not see a national effort to impose that on them via the Courts. I don’t think most people would give a rats behind about whether Mass legalized SSM, other than the fact that they rightly believe that it is the opening shot in a program to force them to accept it in the places where they live. Take that fear away, and the issue is nowhere near as volatile.
#93 Visitor,
Sorry for the delay, looks like my response has been stuck in a moderator’s list (has too many http links, I suspect).
Go here instead:
http://khemenu.blogspot.com/2010/10/western-australia-jobs.html
Good luck.
Funny post title!
Under the fearful symmetry
S64
Hungry is the conjurer in the land of the blind.