Robert Kaplan describes how in the process of muddling along through intractable situations, the US military has become the master of the possible, simply because they have had to be. Kaplan predicts they may succeed in Afghanistan yet again and that very success will become a poisoned pawn.
The secret to their success, Kaplan says in his article “Man Versus Afghanistan”, is that the men in the field have discovered what their political masters have long forgotten: legal concepts are not enough. Governance doesn’t just mean installing someone — anyone — let alone someone as corrupt as Karzai and recognizing them as sovereign. Governance means the ability to harness a population’s aspirations to make things work. To paraphrase Lenin’s famous observation on Communism, counterinsurgency is the freedom agenda plus competence. And the worst thing about the US military, Kaplan says, is that they’ve learned to do it. Kaplan describes how McChrystal has approached the problem and is at some level alarmed at how good at it they’ve become.
I learned at JSOC,” McChrystal explained, “that any complex task is best approached by flattening hierarchies. It gets everybody feeling like they’re in the inner circle, so that they develop a sense of ownership. The more people who believe that they are part of the team and are in the know, the more you don’t have to do it yourself.” As Brigadier General Scott Miller, who runs the Afghanistan-Pakistan Coordination Cell at the Pentagon, told me about McChrystal and Rodriguez’s philosophy: “Decentralize until you’re uncomfortable, then scrutinize, fix, and push down and out even further, to the level of the sergeants.” Precisely because of the commander’s ability to reach down to the junior noncommissioned officers, a flat military organization puts—in the words of one admiral I interviewed—“performance pressure on everybody.”
This show of organizational dynamism points to a ground truth: despite the awful toll of casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the near-breaking of the Army through the strain on soldiers and their families because of long and dangerous deployments, American ground troops are emerging nearly a decade after 9/11 as a force that is even more organizationally and intellectually formidable than it was after the Berlin Wall collapsed, when the United States was the lone superpower. Army and Marine Corps company commanders, for example, can lead in a conventional fight and, as Kolenda’s experience showed, also bring order to chaotic tribal and ethnic messes, all while they communicate effectively up the bureaucratic chain (a skill they began to hone before 9/11, in the Balkans). And these officers have mastered what is, in fact, the colonial technique of partnering with indigenous forces molded in their own image. Rodriguez’s command is a culmination of this whole experience.
The inability of the West to come up with an comprehensive military, political and economic solution to the challenge of failed states has been partly masked by the acquisition of those skills within the military through experience. Rather than consciously building a combined capabilities team from different parts of society, the nation instead acquired a military staffed with soldier-diplomats and amateur nation builders while they weren’t looking. The problem is that like all volunteers who have proven good at their jobs, they have trapped themselves in their own success.
But the very dominance of the U.S. military can lead to a dangerous delusion. For the time being, the American media and policy elite are focused on whether U.S. forces can achieve substantial results in 15 months, even though it is a truism of counterinsurgency that there are few shortcuts to victory and you shouldn’t rush to failure. Nevertheless, U.S. forces quite possibly will have quelled some significant part of the anarchy in southern Afghanistan by then: this is the sort of challenge our troops have become expert in. Yet that might only lead to mistaking artificial progress for lasting governance. The very prospect of some success by July 2011 increases the likelihood that U.S. forces will be in Afghanistan in substantial numbers for years. In effect, the proficiency of the American military causes it to be overextended. British Major General Richard Barrons, a veteran of the Balkans and Iraq now serving in Afghanistan, told me he learned during the most depressing days in Baghdad that “the long view is the primary weapon against fate.” If you are willing to stay, you can turn any situation around for the good. But that is an imperial mind-set, with its assumption of a near-permanent presence, which today’s Washington cannot abide, even as its own strategy drives toward that outcome.
What America has gotten, Kaplan says, is a quasi-imperial corps. Ironically, what brought about the revival of the imperial capability was the disinterest of the intellectual elite, who were too good to devote much time to the problems of failed beyond uttering banal generalities. So they left it to the men on the spot and forgot about them. That cut-off may have been just as well because George Orwell claimed that the British Empire had been ‘killed by the telegraph’.
By 1920 nearly every inch of the colonial empire was in the grip of Whitehall. Well-meaning, over-civilized men, in dark suits and black felt hats, with neatly rolled umbrellas crooked over the left forearm, were imposing their constipated view of life on Malaya and Nigeria, Mombasa and Mandalay. The one-time empire builders were reduced to the status of clerks, buried deeper and deeper under mounds of paper and red tape. In the early twenties one could see, all over the Empire, the older officials, who had known more spacious days, writhing impotently under the changes that were happening.
In contrast, Barack Obama couldn’t be bothered. It took months for him to talk to his commanders. He approached the problem of Afghanistan with the same enthusiasm as a boy approaching a bottle of castor oil. Content to manipulate political symbols at home he left the conduct of affairs to others as one might leave a load of garbage to the trashman. It was taken out and he attached no significance to that fact. In reality the most significant fact would be if the trash got taken out. But that passed without comment because Orwell also argued that the Left don’t do problems. They only do indignation. So when the Best and the Brightest are actually forced to find a solution to a crisis the result is inevitably the Last Helicopter out of Saigon.
The mentality of the English left-wing intelligentsia can be studied in half a dozen weekly and monthly papers. The immediately striking thing about all these papers is their generally negative, querulous attitude, their complete lack at all times of any constructive suggestion. There is little in them except the irresponsible carping of people who have never been and never expect to be in a position of power. Another marked characteristic is the emotional shallowness of people who live in a world of ideas and have little contact with physical reality. … It is clear that the special position of the English intellectuals during the past ten years, as purely negative creatures, mere anti-Blimps, was a by-product of ruling-class stupidity. … Both Blimps and highbrows took for granted, as though it were a law of nature, the divorce between patriotism and intelligence.
Kaplan is almost afraid America might win. In the contest between Man and Afghanistan, the US military and fate, the former may beat the latter. But that will only make things worse. “Once again, we might be poised to overcome the vast, impersonal forces of fate, even as we contribute to our own troubled destiny as a great power.”
Tip Jar or Subscribe for $5
” There is little in them except the irresponsible carping of people who have never been and never expect to be in a position of power. Another marked characteristic is the emotional shallowness of people who live in a world of ideas and have little contact with physical reality. … It “
uh even Moore says that:
Moore: Democrats behaving like ‘frightened animals’ http://bit.ly/anQcrA
Orwell’s Six Rules
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
What follows from Mr. Kaplan’s concerns? That the Rumsfeld decision not to turn over nation-building to Powell’s State Department was correct? That Roman generals as governors were far superior to family-connected appointees who had no practical experience in building roads or winning battles? That soldiers reluctant to fight are better administrators than civilians panting for war? That the psychology of improvability (warriors and athletes and entrepreneurs) has innate advantages over the psychology of fallibility (bureaucrats and herd-gatherers and nay-sayers) in the governance of a people’s aspirations?
Used to be, wherever the American Army went and stayed, those people took up baseball. No more. I wouldn’t worry too much about Mr. Kaplan’s concerns unless Iragis and Afghans start to plan to win our World Series. We’re in, and then out in our recent wars, left with simply the finest fighting–and governing–force in the world, perhaps in all of world history.
How can this be bad?
Don’t use Obama as a measuring stick, he’s just a passing wind, the result of eating too many beans.
OTOH, this may be working in Afghanistan because the whole country is nothing but mud huts anyway. Managing even something like Iraq, does not necessarily mean just passing it down to the NCOs.
You do realize what the result of having Obama finally realize that [horrors of horrors] the American military is both competent and succeeding will be. The Lightworker is going to do his best to betray the troops and throw away any victory achieved.
Subotai Bahadur
Kaplan seems to think success only leads to failure, and also seems to be uncomfortable with the American military being left unsupervised by their political betters. Someone once described the British Empire as being assembled in a fit of absent-mindedness. It looks like the American Empire is being assembled in much the same way, further disturbing Kaplan, who seems to think, or so it would appear, that we are children playing at empire.
Where did I put my tinkertoy
Who took my ball and glove
Children don’t build they just destroy
Raining death from above
People like Kaplan love to fret
Success just leads to ill
It seems good news he’s never met
I doubt he ever will
Who is the Kipling of today
That mildish, childish man
Who wrote of dawn and Mandalay
And the lure of far Afghan
Historians of far off years
Will look at us with awe
And say we wrestled with our fears
And gave the world the law
Perhaps Mr. Kaplan thinks that any form of success in Afghanistan will be mis-attributed to intelligence and leadership of the present Administration. Thus the success achieved by field and staff work by the Army and Marines in Afghanistan will tempt the politicians to do something really stupid in foreign policy, because somehow they have become geniuses and infallible. Not.
It’s like the cock crowing and thinking he made the Sun come up.
A similar analogy might be that the Democrats/Clinton Administration in the ’90′s thought they summoned the economic boom in that decade, leading them to think they were economic geniuses. How did that work out??
@ 6
The last line should read:
And gave the lawless law
I am aware that much of the world already has the law, and my intent was to say that we brought law and civilization to parts of the world that does not currently have it. I tried to change the line on click to edit, but could not because of bouncing edit function. Tried to delete and re-post but failed at that as well.
Something remarkable has happened.
While the politicos in the beltway dithered and spun,
the military has gone ahead in Iraq and won
and in Afghanistan they have beaten the Taliban like a drum.
The American military has no finer friend among journalists and writers than Robert D. Kaplan. His book Imperial Grunts, for which he spent several years living with US Special Forces troops around the world, is a masterpiece of insight into the work of our SF troops.
So I don’t understand where he’s coming from with his present concern about the military.
It is a good thing we have men who can restore civilization and democracy. I think those skills may be in desperate need here at home soon. I wonder how many of our nation’s greatest future leaders are in uniform right now in Iraq and Afghanistan?
I don’t think Washington can be insulated by competence for more than a few years. The current crisis, of which the financial crisis is but one aspect, is destroying the old “imperial center-periphery” model that seems to underlie Kaplan’s analysis.
Stupidity is no longer a luxury the West can afford. What probably will happen is that the multilateral security/development aid/diplomacy — the ramshackle “End of History” institutions — will collapse. About all the US military can make sure the collapse is a graceful one. One way or the other new institutions will emerge. I think (without any real basis for it) that these features will apply:
The post-1945 world is over, but the newer world has not yet emerged. A midwife is nowhere to be found and of all the wrecked institutions that are likely to be around as the world reorders itself, about the only obvious one is the military, which the politicians ironically sharpened against the whetstone of facts. It’s an old story, one with many Roman echoes.
And although Kaplan doesn’t say it, I believe the unease he feels is rooted in the possibility that the military may be in a pivotal position during the period of the collapse of the elites. They won’t cause it but they will be around when it happens. In the end Kaplan wants the world to stay under civilian control; and I believe most of us do. But the fecklessness of the politicians combined with the schooling the military has had creates bad scenarios.
The solution, I believe, is for the civilians to get their act together and clean up the political world so that they can consciously escape from the prison of the 20th century ideology and take the reform process in hand. I think that’s already happening. The question is whether it can happen fast enough.
And what happens (they may wonder in Mr. Kaplan’s Atlantic circles) when an ungrateful Administration brings these miracle-workers home? Home to a country where the Best & Brightest have destroyed the world’s finest industrial base with a mountain of conflicting regulations. Home to a country where the Best & Brightest have created unsustainable trade deficits. Home to a country where the Best & Brightest have proven themselves incapable of balancing the national books.
When Johnny comes marching home again, the Best & Brightest may find they don’t match up to the standards the real miracle-workers have come to expect from themselves. And those active duty & retired military may decide that they need to fight yet one more war, this time on their home turf.
There may be a profound sense of unease among the Atlantic readership. Better to keep the military busy overseas indefinitely, the Best & Brightest may yet decide.
I still remember the speech General Sanchez gave in October of 2007. He was the commander in Iraq in 2003. Things didn’t look so bright, seen through his Doom colored glasses. Wretchard blogged his speech at the old site: http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2007/10/sanchezs-full-statement.html
My own comment on what Sanchez said was that “the fog of War had gone to his brain.” This is from the Washington Post:
Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez told military reporters, “There has been a glaring unfortunate display of incompetent strategic leadership.”
Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, who led U.S. forces in Iraq for a year after the March 2003 invasion, accused the Bush administration yesterday of going to war with a “catastrophically flawed” plan and said the United States is “living a nightmare with no end in sight.”
Sanchez also bluntly criticized the current troop increase in Iraq, describing it as “a desperate attempt by the administration that has not accepted the political and economic realities of this war.”
“The administration, Congress and the entire interagency, especially the State Department, must shoulder the responsibility for this catastrophic failure, and the American people must hold them accountable,” Sanchez told military reporters and editors. “There has been a glaring unfortunate display of incompetent strategic leadership within our national leaders.”
Sanchez lashed out specifically at the National Security Council, calling officials there negligent and incompetent, without offering details. He also assailed war policies over the past four years, which he said had stripped senior military officers of responsibility and thus thrust the armed services into an “intractable position” in Iraq.
“The best we can do with this flawed approach is stave off defeat,” Sanchez said in a speech to the Military Reporters and Editors’ annual conference in Crystal City. “Without bipartisan cooperation, we are destined to fail. There is nothing going on in Washington that would give us hope.”
He faulted the administration for failing to “communicate effectively that reality to the American people.”
I think Bush got plenty of help communicating the “no hope” message to the American people. Come to think, he did not even have to ask.
I remember when the US military captured Baghdad that the Democrats said it was done by “the Clinton military.” But the Sanchez speech showed why the “Clinton Military” could not, in the end, win. First, what the hell was he doing during his Iraq tour, keeping his diary up to date? Getting his ticket punched? Requesting micro-management from above? Not only did he fail to design a successful strategy, he could not recognize a “winner” — The Petraeus/Bush troop surge — when it was already succeeding by the time of his speech.
Perhaps Bush had to work his way through the “political generals” before he could form the team that President Obama could use to achieve a great success in Iraq (As Joe Biden put it).
5. Subotai Bahadur:
I concur with your take on Obama’s likely response to American military success. For some time I’ve been struck by certain parallels between late Roman history and the circumstances in which our military commanders find themselves today. McChrystal and Petraeus might do well to review the history and fate of Flavius Aetius.
13. Kinuachdrach
Yes. The “Best and the Brightest” have devolved into the current political class. Its interesting. When it comes to family owned businesses, statistics show that by the third generation the owners are incompetent and screw everything up. Look at Motorola if you want an example.
And how many of our politicians are the spawn of politicians? And for how many generations back?
Patterns . . . I see patterns.
I’m blessed to be working with many elements of the US Army, from generals down to grunts. I do so in service of one of the Army’s own scientific research labs. I love it when dealing with the “greensuits”, meaning regular Army personnel, even up to most generals that I’ve dealt with.
I must say that the biggest drag of this gig is dealing with my scientific associates in the lab. They are mostly all typical specimens of the familiar academic stripe, and prisoners of the attendant uniformity of thinking and worldviews. What is it with this situation that saps the mind so?
On the ground facing disparate threats from a number of sources, I’d fully expect the military commanders to provide effective leadership even down to the squad level. That is their domain, after all, and they excel at it.
The scientific guys? We’re meh. Our natural mode is to experiment and fail, then tweak parameters and do it all over again. We work on an edifice bought and paid for by the other guys, truth be told, on hope for an outsized dividend.
If I had to do it all over again, I’d be a military grunt rather than a scientific one. To each his own, but I hate to be carried, and that’s what every academic is.
Sux having a prez we got to carry, btw.
I can see where these comments are headed, and I say good, let the military be competent, for they may be rebuilding the USA in ten years.
Actually, I’m more optimistic than that, there’s a lot of inertia or momentum or whatever, and the Obamanation seems to be grinding itself to a halt in the middle of the highway, and even if the finance bomb finally goes chain reaction, the sun will rise in the east, and maybe the Internet trunk lines will keep crackling.
We haven’t seen the new world yet, but every day is new, it’s only an illusion there was a stable past.
–I believe the unease he feels is rooted in the possibility that the military may be in a pivotal position during the period of the collapse of the elites. They won’t cause it but they will be around when it happens. In the end Kaplan wants the world to stay under civilian control; and I believe most of us do. But the fecklessness of the politicians
Wretchard, I believe this makes sense if you see our military as Caesar coming home to Rome, but in truth, our military have always been citizen soldiers.
It is more likely they will come home, join rotary, coach little league, and realize they need to run for office and evict the Best and Brightest.
A cadre of these men and women in local and state service as civilians would be a different kind of coup, one we would all be proud of.
It may be all that can save the US yet from the financial collapse.
Still, I agree that the nation state seems to have run its course particularly in parts of Europe and Asia. A breakdown into smaller ethnic tribal-like loyalties in the form of nonstate actors may be what comes.
Orwell was a man of the left to the very end, although he knew by the end that socialism was a delusion. His criticism of the left reflects that growing awareness. This is clear if you read his letters. So like Michael Moore, he could criticize the left even though he was of the left.
Unlike Moore, though, Orwell was dedicated to truth, which is why he had figured out that socialism was a delusion at the end of his life. Unlike Moore, he also put his money where his mouth was, volunteered to fight, and was wounded in action.
I greatly admire him, despite the fact that he was on the wrong side.
I supposed it is silly to say we live in history, watching it unfold, but not really thinking of the major consequences because, hey, it’s just another day. (Captain Obvious over here.) Lately the unfolding of a very major chapter feels occasionally very real and sometimes a bit exciting, if I do say so.
So I’m thinking of how the combination of major domestic shifts interact in an almost chemical way with the experience of returning soldiers in American history and how the resulting reaction shapes the political and social landscape. How will these soldiers, so vastly different from any conflict in the 20 century, react with the what is happening at home, when they do get home?
I could go on about this for volumes, but it would be drivel because I’m not that knowledgeable about history. On the other hand… I think there’s a coherent and viable thought in there somewhere. (I’m recovering from some kind of bug, so maybe I’m just hallucinating.)
Will these soldiers be impacted more by the heavily constrained rules of engagement, for example, or the widespread leadership experience that Kaplan discusses? What will they find when they get home, and how will the chemicals react? This is the exciting part. We get to watch it, and live it.
I’m not keen for more permanent garrisons overseas–especially in places like Afghanistan. I think that that is what Kaplan is worried about.
The story below suggests that the US is already planning the end game and exit from Afghanistan. It may be dead wrong but its plausible.
Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up
The American soldiers who complete their training in nation building Iraq and Afghanistan –after they take off their uniforms and step back into the civilian world –will be very good leaders for the USA for the next 40 years.
The real benefit of “history” isn’t in providing a guide to the future: it can’t do that; but simply in making people think. Stimulating thoughtfulness provides the real benefit. Perhaps the underlying question in Kaplan’s essay is why some institutions work when others don’t? The answer is probably that through the historical accident of the War on Terror, some institutions were forced into contact with reality more deeply than others.
Military institutions are no more immune to stupidity than civilian ones. But contact with reality produces a Darwinian effect which consumes the stupid, at least in the long run. Contact with life in “failed states” inevitably educates or mis-educates those who attend this academy of hard knocks. It was a truism that the experience of World War 2 created a “global” outlook in a generation many of whom had ever even seen an ocean. But that group that went out together and came back together which tended to create a consensus. What happens when you have some guys join Acorn and some guys go out and see the world? What happens when some get their news from MSNBC and others tailor their news sources from the Internet? Consensus is less likely and a divergence of viewpoints more probable, which will largely be a good thing. Some will have seen the dark wave coming even when others have not.
The next decade will probably see a number of major shifts in the way the world works. What convulsions might it cause? My guess is that the form the convulsions take will surprise us. It may be that even our paradigms of rapid social change have shifted. Sociologists used to look out for mass demonstrations, barricades, strong men on horseback, gangs of brownshirts, etc as portents of tectonic shifts. I don’t know that we will see these forms again. Like the ideologies which parented them even the old forms of instability may be fading. The real indicators may be a suddenly renewed vitality of many moribund or inactive institutions. The political system, the churches, voluntary organizations, etc may suddenly acquire purchase again. The real signs of instability may be when lights that have been off a long time start flickering on again and doors shut for years start creaking open. Maybe. But the bottom line is that I don’t know.
About all that I fairly certain of is that a) many of the old ways are fading; and b) people are increasingly conscious that this is so. It’s a) that worries me; and b) that gives me hope.
Wretchard @ 12 said:
“Stupidity is no longer a luxury the West can afford. … A midwife is nowhere to be found and of all the wrecked institutions that are likely to be around as the world reorders itself, about the only obvious one is the military, which the politicians ironically sharpened against the whetstone of facts. It’s an old story, one with many Roman echoes…. And although Kaplan doesn’t say it, I believe the unease he feels is rooted in the possibility that the military may be in a pivotal position during the period of the collapse of the elites.”
Following the bread crumbs… The conclusion is that due to slow acting Gramscian decay there follows a process where authoritarian rule via military power ends up replacing democracy? –or more likely– There will be clowns representing a faux elite who will strut and preen in a mock democratic process that’s enabled by a failed MSM but in the shadows the real political power will be held by those in the military?
Top North Waziristan Taliban leader Bahadar rumored killed in US strike
The drone strike on Gul Bahadur yesterday was unprecedented as he was an internal ally with Pakistan and supported the attack on the Mehsud’s. Bahadur was a Wazir:
If the story is true–then its proof positive that there has been a major league policy shift in Pakistan.
If the US military can do failed states, let’s send them to California and Michigan. F
wretchard,
This is a profoundly undemocratic view of the future. The one thing governments can do, even if it is often honored in the breach, is reflect popular sovereignty and democratic consensus. No other human agency can do that. They all reflect other interests or means of establishing their constituencies. These could be religious as with the Moslem Brotherhood or the Maryknolls or Mormon charities, or racial as with La Raza, or ideological as with Greenpeace or simply financial.
If in the future the provision of essential goods and services will be provided by NGOs and corporations then the most sought after title may no longer be Citizen but Stockholder.
23 wretchard says:
“The real signs of instability may be when lights that have been off a long time start flickering on again and doors shut for years start creaking open…….. About all that I fairly certain of is that a) many of the old ways are fading; and b) people are increasingly conscious that this is so. It’s a) that worries me; and b) that gives me hope.”
I think that’s very likely, and I see some signs of that around me. For instance, a religious revival is probable, and would be but one of many we’ve had in the history of this Country.
I have the same feelings you express in a/b. This could turn into a devastating situation that we may never recover from, or it could breathe fresh life into the ideas and institutions that made this Country great. Either way, it’ll take a while to play out, and a lot of uncertainty and suffering during that time.
The focus is on the next couple of elections, but I think that even if the GOP regains power in one or more of the branches of Government it won’t be enough. The mindset itself has to be changed, and that’s never easy. I predict that the GOP will make tremendous gains this fall, and then the jubilation that you see in the comments sections of many blogs will quickly dissipate into more disillusionment and anger as the beat goes on, just in modified form.
OTOH I may be completely wrong. Enthusiasm and a belief that things will get better can turn things around very quickly. That was President Reagans’ biggest contribution. He dispelled the “malaise” of the JC years, pretty quickly, and the Country took off in ways that were barely conceivable during the reign of the second-to-worst President of my lifetime.
The problem is, that takes leaders with true beliefs and convictions, and we seem in short supply today. They do tend to show up when the going gets tough, so maybe they’re out there but unknown at this time. We’re pretty much at the end of our rope as well – all of the seed corn has been eaten.
It’ll take average citizens who are willing to sacrifice for future generations, and they’re always in short supply. There’s a feeling in the land that anyone who lives by the old rules is a sucker waiting to be fleeced by the sharp operators, in service to themselves and the irresponsible among us. That feeling exists because it’s true. Until that reality changes, it’s going to be hard to get a consensus to do anything for the overall good of the Country.
There’s also a tremendous amount of rot in many of our major institutions, whether it be education, media, or others. This will take some time to root out, but if that doesn’t happen everything will be for nought. The Leftists must be neutralized if we are to survive as a Nation. If they’re left in place they’ll be back in short order.
If there’s one thing I’d like to see it would be a complete, total discrediting of the Leftist fantasies we’ve been living with for the last Century or so. That would be some compensation to our children and grandchildren for the massive debt we’re going to leave them, or the worldwide chaos that will result if we default.
Maybe, just maybe, the world winds up with the type of governance immortalized in “Starship Troopers”. One in which authority is earned by having proven responsibility.
That switch away from the state as provider
to one of governance is long overdue.
As to the status of military/veterans; I walked the streets of San Francisco a little over thirty years ago finding out that parole papers would get a fellow farther in a job search than would an honorable discharge.
Things have certainly changed for the better
since then.
And remember Hanson’s dictum that “Without civic militarism there can be no such thing as a republican form of government.” Overall there is a relearning of that and acceptance as well.
In the meantime, I do enjoy seeing those Thomas Sowell calls the annointed squirm
when soldiers go and do what they say cannot be done. Not too bad for those who “couldn’t get a good job so they had to join the military”.
So let us all Praise the Lord while remembering to pass the ammunition!.
Rocking good article. Thanks for linking it.
dtmack: A relative of mine who is an AF noncom and has been in Iraq and Afghanistan is planning to become a teacher when he retires from the AF. I don’t know how common this is, but it could be a way forward in education. Imagine recruiting teachers from a group of reality-based, self-disciplined, and effectiveness-oriented people who have seen something of the world and who aren’t ashamed of their country.
“And these officers have mastered what is, in fact, the colonial technique of partnering with indigenous forces molded in their own image.”
I’ve told you before that we need a return to the style of colonialism that was denigrated and undermined to achieve disintegrative anti-western political ends, not useful “national freedom” ones. The pity is that we have nobody left to do it. The UN is riddled with PC – and worse. The Europeans, who once radiated some form of civilisation and commerce around the globe, are a spent force. America is (particularly under the present management) spending its way to impotence.
LOTM “If in the future the provision of essential goods and services will be provided by NGOs and corporations then the most sought after title may no longer be Citizen but Stockholder.”
Naw, micro-business entrepreneurs would prefer LLC, I think. The life of “big” is short but the downsizing of a corrupt government or replacement of same with competent leadership and responsive partners both is the scary part and the part that generates notions of the possible.
I think we may have to ride out the self destruction of our financial institutions which have become too big and too unresponsive, and let the big government as an institution fail just as well. It gives the song “California here I come” new life and a whole new meaning. I don’t think the military as an institution is something to be feared, if only because by flattening those hierarchies General McChrystal refers to, you not only get to see what kinds of shorts everyone else wears, they get to see your selection as well.
#29 You beat me to it.
My dream would be some form of “Starship Trooper” governance. EARN your right to vote and be a citizen.
36% of U.S. population not paying income tax?
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2010/03/tax-foundation–1.html
Something has to give.
The real danger is that the one major element of government that can be effective and has the broad support, as so many polls show, of the American people is its military. Caesar will not come at the head of the legions so much as at the request of the people.
CASCA: Why, there was a crown offered him: and being offered him, he put it by with the back of his hand,thus; and then the people fell a-shouting.
BRUTUS: What was the second noise for?
CASCA: Why, for that too.
CASSIUS: They shouted thrice: what was the last cry for?
CASCA: Why, for that too.
BRUTUS: Was the crown offered him thrice?
CASCA: Ay, marry, was’t, and he put it by thrice, every time gentler than other, and at every putting-by mine honest neighbours shouted.
W@12.
Another view. When the captains and colonels return home and start standing for congress we will see changes. We, in this forum, have all decried the lack of military experience in the legislature. This will change when these young professionals return from building governments in mud huts to school boards and mayoralities for their own families, etc. I say 10 years.
I am reminded of ‘Starship Troopers’
Josh No.4:
“How can this be bad?”
Take the Space Shuttle program as an example. Devised to save the Apollo empire when the justification for it ended, the Shuttle program claimed to be able to do everything anyone needed.
On 28 Jan 1986 the truth came out; the Shuttle was not far cheaper and more capable but much more costly and limited. Rejuvenated expendable launch vehicle programs jumped in to fill the void. This enabled Shuttle to be just Shuttle and satisfy only its own needs.
And now it is ending. And to replace it and meet its own needs is …? Nothing.
NASA has had 24 years to come up with a replacement for the Shuttle, something that at least would take astronauts to orbit. And despite having consumed the vast majority of Federal funds spent on space launch during that period they have not done it.
24 years before 28 Jan 1986 takes you to 28 Jan 1962, and at that point the US had yet to put a single human into orbit. 24 years after 28 Jan 1986 they are still flying the Shuttle – and the jig is up. The carnival is at last going to strike its tents and leave town.
You can be a victim of your own success, as the US Military was to some extent in Operation Iraqi Freedom; Desert Storm made it look easy. But being a victim of your own failure is far worse if you fail to recognize the fact of the failure.
35. Don51:
“CASCA: Ay, marry, was’t, and he put it by thrice, every time gentler than other, and at every putting-by mine honest neighbours shouted.”
The troops will return and as crises mount will in some sense find a failed state at home. As Kaplan describes they will have a common view/ethos of how to solve the problems. A leader will arise. The question is, will he be a Caesar or a George Washington?
I rated a footnote in Robert Kaplan’s “The Media and Medievalism,” so he can do no wrong as far as I’m concerned.
My view is this cleverly written article is a backhanded compliment. It is couched in wary terms so the military despising MSM will publish it. Beware of a too successful military! Right. Budget concerns, recruiting problems, and too many rivals, will keep all that in hand.
The comment about Rumsfeld’s distrust of the State Department, and my knowledge of his distrust of the CIA, are telling. State and the CIA don’t really have to live with their failings, the military does. If the military takes on those tasks in time of war, it is going to try its damnedest to get those matters right. In time of war, war intelligence, and war diplomacy, may best be handled by the DOD.
Fortunately for us, men like McChrystal, schooled in the SF culture of small groups with large responsibilities, have risen to high levels of command. We have been re-learning one of many historical military truths: when you give well trained junior officers and NCOs latitude to make decisions they will always surprise you with success!
The road is long and rocky, but the force with superior software (culture/personnel) wins out.
Don51 #35:
“The real danger is that the one major element of government that can be effective and has the broad support, as so many polls show, of the American people is its military.”
Actually the US Military has polled in the lead since at least the mid-70′s, and no doubt did so during most of the previous years.
What is different now is that politicans poll as more or less not showing up for work. Obama is famous for voting “Present” but he in fact embodies the philosophy of most of the elites.
You probably have never had to pour over a Congressionally directed budget, but I can assure you that even when issuing directions to fund pork they do so in the most obtuse language possible.
The difference now is that the competence, integrity, and credibility gap between the US Military and the politicans has become blindingly clear.
As I observed some time ago, the battlegrounds in Iraq and Afghanistan show we have no shortage of Pattons, Lemays, Doolittles, O’Hares, Bongs, and even Audie Murpheys, while at home we have a dearth of Trumans, Eisenhowers, and Reagans. And as Wretchard observed in response the military gets immediate and effective feedback when they screw up. Not so the politicans.
“We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness — That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the Consent of the Governed …”
As to W’s view being “undemocratic”, perhaps that’s a good thing. A good deal of our current problems are due to the government reflecting “popular sovereignty and democratic consensus”, instead of serving in its intended role of the securer of the unalienable rights of its individual citizens. Nothing in the Declaration or the Constitution establishes the state as the provider of services or as the implementer of the public whim. But as many here have pointed out, the rot and pollution of the ideas central to the Declaration and the Constitution have become so widespread, even with those who should know better, that reversing them will make cleaning the Augean Stables seem a small and pleasant task. But maybe our true Best and Brightest, our military, will be up to the challenge. Then the question will be, will we have a Starship Troopers future or an Imperial Roman one?
We don’t want a “Starship Troopers” government, we just want a return to what America was before the rise of the progressive movement about 100 years ago. And with all due respect, that movement *did* clean up some horrible abuses that need cleaning up, but it went too far.
Maybe that’s the problem with all government, over time – good ideas always end up going too far. Example – the EPA. Everyone agrees that it’s a good thing that we don’t have rivers that can catch fire anymore, as the Cuyahoga River did 40 years ago. But an agency can never be satisfied with having done a good thing – they have to keep pushing on, which is why they’re going after CO2 now. How does anyone get any promotions unless there are new dragons to slay?
I’ve come to think that every agency should be sunsetted after the immediate reason for its creation has been addressed. And reasons for creating an agency should always be focused and specific, not general. Otherwise they turn into the energizer bunny. Yeah, if you don’t have huge, sweeping aspirations, critics say you lack “that vision thing.” I have a vision – we don’t do shit for awhile, how about that?
as an aside, it’s good to remember that Heinlein’s govm’t in ST was not “fascist”, as some have said – it was instead based roughly on the ancient government of the Spartans, which did result in by far the most effective and professional army of the day. The problem with basing anything on the Spartan model is that overall, the Spartan society that resulted from this was vicious, murderous, bloodthirsty, and downright weird in every one of the most basic human institutions. It is not a society you or I or any other sane person would have wanted to live in, and when you take in the fact that it depended on the violent repression of the helots, it was probably one of the most unjust and cruel societies that has ever existed on this Earth.
In spite of (actually because of) what they had done, there was great rejoicing in Greece when Epameinondes finally destroyed their army and broke Sparta’s power for good.
If I could go back and be part of any ancient society, I’d choose ancient Egypt. Warm all the time and life was beautiful. Sure, they had their problems, too, but I think life was nicer there than it was just about anywhere else on Earth at the time. Those Hebrews were crazy to leave.
Just for grins, let’s skip the reason and simply see three or four counties recovering from something horrible that happened to the nation as a whole.
In charge is a NG major–all that’s left–with whatever Guard and Reserves are left and the cops, such as are left, decide to report to him since they have to report to somebody.
The Maj is smart, has a good view of what needs to be done.
There is no civilian government left. But things are going as well as can be expected and some progress and recovery is visible.
Somebody says, this is all wrong. We need to elect a bunch of corrupt and incompetent losers like we always have.
It is said that Old King Cole was a real person. Last Roman officer on the Wall in the Army list. First local king. Same guy.
Wonder if he thought it was the way to fame and fortune or if he thought it was the best thing for the region.
I have a vision – we don’t do shit for awhile, how about that?
Damn good idea.
Out this way, we reintroduced the wolves, and have destroyed the elk herds. Latest report from Idaho Fish and Game is they are now at a level where the herd won’t be able to reproduce enough to replace even their dec;ining numbers. Last year alone they dropped 50%. And the wolves have now officially crossed the Snake into the Willowas.
A lot of us knew this would happen.
My gut tells me that to many are to blithe in their assumption, as is wretchard that a defanged government will be confined to its proper role once the provision of goods and services other than “defense and key public goods” is extracted. What those public goods are needs examination. In the Constitution some powers are enumerated but that has proven a weak reed to rely on while drawing the boundary between the public and private sectors.
My fear, and I think it is reasonable, is that the socialists have so discredited the democratic apparatus that the transfer of authority to unelected bodies will leave the political apparatus a hollow shell as feckless as the Roman Senate under the Caesars. Once that happens then it will be easier for some Caesar or Chavez to take power. It also means that the rump government will be unable to defend the people’s rights but will instead become a tool of inevitably corrupt or oppressive forces with private agendas. We are already on this slippery path. How will you enjoy your vine and fig tree when Greenpeace wants to limit fig trees and Goldman Sachs is invested in a scheme to take your land?
The Left is well aware of this problem when they agitate about Corporatism. It is interesting to me that they often perceive a real problem, as Marx did with “Alienation,” and then consistently prescribe exactly the wrong solution that only makes the condition they identified worse.
wws,
Your first five paragraphs get it. The question for an argument as for the government is, where to do you draw the line? Let us hope we can get back to something closer to the Town Meeting than the God-King.
Hmmm. I think like a lot of others over here, I kinda am starting to understand what the Roman Centurions must have been worrying about. Besides kicking ass on the enemy in front of them.
Flavius Aetius is quite a bit farther along in the Imperial timeline than we are; we haven’t even had our Augustus yet. (with any luck, we won’t, at least not in our lifetimes)
I do like to think of Obama as another Elagabulus, but that’s probably unfair.
Looking at the life of Flavius does give a good perspective on just how far gone the Roman Empire was; a modern day Flavius would be negotiating directly with Bin Laden and Mullah Omar, and would then hire the Taliban and transport them back here to fight his domestic enemies for him, while using bribe money to keep all the various factions and tribes in Pakistan and Afghanistan disunited and at each other’s throats.
That’s pretty much what Flavius did with the Huns, and Byzantium survived another 1,000 years using variants of that strategy. Of course, after Flavius invited the Huns inside the Western Empire to be his own army, it’s no surprise they decided to stay and take over the place once he was gone.
Vortigern made much the same mistake with the Saxons; mercenary armies seem useful and solve the problem of you asking your own citizens to fight for you, but if they’re a whole lot stronger than your own army you always end up in big, big trouble. Of course if you’re down to relying on mercenaries to keep your system going you’re probably already past the point of no return.
And with that last note, let me tie this back in to Martha Coakley and the democrats hiring faux “grass roots supporters” to hold her signs in January at $50 bucks a pop. If you’ve got to pay people to pretend to support you, you don’t really have any support at all, do you?
And thus do great enterprises of long and distinguished lineage die.
I keep waiting for Marie Claude to recommend Jean Larteguy’s THE PRAETORIANS and THE CENTURIANS.
Post WWII, the French warriors on the frontiers, however competent, got shafted.
If we “win” in Afghanistan, exactly what is our prize?
The Brits used mercenaries–most notably from India and Nepal–for a couple of centuries.
But they officered the native regiments with younger sons of the landed gentry and minor nobility and kept them out of the UK.
So they hired the guys as individuals, put them together with their ethnic buddies, and controlled them from Britain.
They didn’t hire armies as going concerns.
John Masters’ “Bugles and A Tiger”, about his experiences as a pre-war Gurkha officer, gives a good view of late Imperial military arrangements.
7. E. Nigma
“It’s like the cock crowing and thinking he made the Sun come up.”
Our Representatives and Senators have long (mistakenly) thought that. And it is no one’s fault but our own.
28 dtmack
“The Leftists must be neutralized if we are to survive as a Nation. If they’re left in place they’ll be back in short order.”
No truer words have been spoken. But alas, we know this is not possible. They will remain, cowed but still defiant and causing troubles when and where they can.
31 vb
“A relative of mine who is an AF noncom and has been in Iraq and Afghanistan is planning to become a teacher when he retires from the AF. I don’t know how common this is, but it could be a way forward in education. “
He will try and find out that the unions and the inbred progressive incest of the teachers and the educational system will just be too much t fight or even bear for very long. Until we abolish the Federal Dept. of Education and the teacher’s unions nothing will change. Nothing.
34 Jatah
“My dream would be some form of “Starship Trooper” governance. EARN your right to vote and be a citizen.
36% of U.S. population not paying income tax?”
Yep and it’s been that way for years. We have at least two complete generations (some say three) that have no compunction toward personal responsibility nor being good citizens. Why should they when the progressives over the last forty years have given them money, benefits, education and other perks to be slackers, reverse racists and dullards.
39 Limpet6
“Another view. When the captains and colonels return home and start standing for congress we will see changes. We, in this forum, have all decried the lack of military experience in the legislature. This will change when these young professionals return from building governments in mud huts to school boards and mayoralities for their own families, etc. I say 10 years.’
From your lips to God’s ears. I’m hoping that the different environment in our Military and the different outlook of the general population keeps those that come back from going to ground and just trying to get themselves back to reality and going their own way, be it good or bad. This is what happened to my generation that returned from SE Asia. We actually wanted nothing to do with the government in any fashion. We couldn’t have been more wrong.
Gotta go, life calls.
Papa Ray
The big context is economic. Consider the flow of the energy sector money.
Obama’s vision of American marginalization, with the outcome of the U.S. as merely one of many nations rather than the predominant nation, depends on keeping money flowing to the counterbalances, e.g. to the KSA and away from and out of the USA. At every step of American military success, Obama sets up a stumbling block, whether strategic (e.g. telegraphing pull-out dates) or economic.
Mirabile dictu:
“The Obama Moratorium: No offshore drilling while he’s in office”
By: Barbara Hollingsworth
Local Opinion Editor
03/10/10 1:19 PM EST
“The Obama administration’s six-month delay in approving new offshore drilling leases in federal waters will become a new three-year ban, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar quietly told reporters last Friday. Which means that no new oil and gas leases will be approved during President Obama’s term even though two –thirds of the American public supports such activity, according to a December 2009 Rasmussen poll.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/The-Obama-Moratorium-No-offshore-drilling-while-hes-in-office-87246077.html
Maybe T.E. Lawrence was right to some extent that nothing is written. But on the other hand you have Obama working very hard to write a script for a particular outcome. You can’t say that Obama isn’t working hard to achieve his ends. Fortune favors the prepared.
So # 50 you are suggesting that the General at Dien Ben Pu was compatant? Or that they prosecuted the Vietnam campaign well? No, the French Army was as incompetant as the whole French culture is. Arrogant and angry at their fall from being the center of world diplomacy. They sort of remind me of the Arabs without the suicidal tendencies.
W: “George Orwell claimed that the British Empire had been ‘killed by the telegraph’.”
On the other hand C.S. Lewis claimed that the entire Western movement toward human liberty is beeing killed by a (Marxist) perversion of the word “Democratic” – perversion of the word “Equality.”
“The great movement toward liberty and equality among men had by then borne solid fruits and grown mature. Slavery had been abolished. The American War of Independence had been won… It was not easy to determine what our own attitude should be. On the one hand it was a bitter blow to us — it still is — that any sort of men who had been hungry should be fed or any who had long worn chains should have them struck off. But on the other hand, there was in the movement so much rejection of faith, so much materialism, secularism, and hatred, that we felt we were bound to encourage it… Hidden in the heart of this striving for Liberty there was also a deep hatred of personal freedom. That invaluable man Rousseau first revealed it. In his perfect democracy, only the state religion is permitted, slavery is restored, and the individual is told that he has really willed (though he didn’t know it) whatever the Government tells him to do. From that starting point, via Hegel (another indispensable propagandist on our side), we easily contrived both the Nazi and the Communist state. Even in England we were pretty successful. I heard the other day that in that country a man could not, without a permit, cut down his own tree with his own axe, make it into planks with his own saw, and use the planks to build a toolshed in his own garden… Democracy is the word with which you must lead them by the nose… You are to use the word purely as an incantation; if you like, purely for its selling power. It is a name they venerate. And of course it is connected with the political ideal that men should be equally treated. You then make a stealthy transition in their minds from this political ideal to a factual belief that all men are equal (in property and social position)… The claim to equality, outside the strictly political field, is made only by those who feel themselves to be in some way inferior. What it expresses is precisely the itching, smarting, writhing awareness of an (Proletarian) inferiority which the patient refuses to accept. And therefore resents. Yes, and therefore resents every kind of (Middle Class) superiority in others; denigrates it; wishes its annihilation (Communist Manifesto). Presently he suspects every mere difference of being a claim to superiority. No one must be different from himself in voice, clothes, manners, recreations, choice of food: “…They’ve no business to be different. It’s undemocratic.”… Under the name of Envy it has been known to humans for thousands of years. But hitherto they always regarded it as the most odious, and also the most comical, of vices. Those who were aware of feeling it felt it with shame; those who were not gave it no quarter in others. The delightful novelty of the present situation is that you can sanction it — make it respectable and even laudable — by the incantatory use of the word democratic. Under the influence of this incantation those who are in any or every way inferior can labour more wholeheartedly and successfully than ever before to pull down everyone else to their own level. But that is not all. Under the same influence, those who come, or could come, nearer to a full humanity, actually draw back from fear of being undemocratic… To accept might make them Different, might offend against the Way of Life, take them out of Togetherness, impair their Integration with the Group. They might (horror of horrors!) become individuals.” C.S. Lewis – Screwtape Proposes a Toast
http://screwtapeblogs.wordpress.com/2009/06/30/screwtape-proposes-a-toast/
If we “win” in Afghanistan, exactly what is our prize? – Habu
The prize is heap big look-see pidgin…and that has real value when this is the War for the Islamic Mind.
The Afghans broke the Soviet Union and fought the British to a standstill…twice.
We have now beaten Islamic miscreants at one of Islam’s cultural and commercial centers, Iraq, and we may soon have pacified (yeah, as much as you can pacify hill-billies) Islamic miscreants, the Afghans, who love to fight. People watch and they draw conclusions. From what I can tell Islamic fundamentalists only use one weapon, fear. Who is to be feared more?
As American Express might put it, “Victory in Iraq, costly, victory in Afghanistan, costly, victory over Islam’s most visible bad boys, priceless.”
RWE @ 37: But the complaint here is that the military/shuttle *does* work.
I cannot make a coherent picture out of what wretchard and/or kaplan are saying here, the military works but that might make bad policy look good, might lead to overextension, might lead to the military being defunded for being arrogant, might only appear to work but isn’t really, … has not yet lead to the Afghans playing baseball and thus is illusory. Well OK, but I might go outside at lunch and be hit by a truck, so what else is new? Maybe I am in the grip of a demon who makes me dream the world, when I am actually only a brain in a vat. Maybe Lebron James will pull a hamstring, or decide to quite roundball and pursue a career in dance.
–
Even if the shuttle was oversold, it has been at least a qualified success, the technology is more robust than the management, I guess we’ve proved that at least, to our loss. If you don’t believe me, look at the prospect of the just cancelled “Orion” program, a new generation of Apollo capsule technology. I understand the numbers, but cannot accept the aesthetics. If it can’t at least fall to Earth with the grace of the shuttle, why don’t we just stay home.
–
Limpet6: Good post on what it means to win in Afghan. Even so, have to wonder at the cost, of winning over so many goatherds. Still, better than losing to them, I suppose. Lessons there for them and us both.
But certainly, Islam uses more than fear, they use blind, self-destructive murder. They are happy to spend resources with little or no chance of *direct* benefit, in the hope of *indirect* benefit. That, is actually quite powerful. That is, until and unless it is overwhelmed. We have been very reticent about overwhelming it, even though we could do it much, much more easily than we have. It’s almost like we have to make it look accidental. Which I’m sure they cannot understand. Rather like Niven’s kzin, who could not understand why the humans did not attack to enslave or wipe them out when they could.
57. Limpet6
Thanks for the response.
As to the other participants, well the silence is deafening to the most basic of questions to be asked and answered.
By now we all know the history of Af-G.
But where is the answer to the question? I know some of you out there who write must have some clue and I’d love to hear it……not to jump on the answer I just don’t see any benefit. Yes we might deprive some areas to the Taliban but is jihad going away against the Great Satan? Will islam become desiccated, calcine, and blow away in the wind?
In Full Metal Jacket the Lt. asked Joker in their daily go around, Where’s the weenie?
Where’s the weenie folks?
Excellent article and remarkably good comments, in whole.
#26 Mr. F and #45 Mr. Aubrey,
One of the surprising events in California politics is the strong and growing presence of members and former members of the California National Guard as political actors. Chuck DeVore, running for Senate, is but the highest visibility example – there are many more at lower levels of government. I welcome their leadership – they are not just actors, but agents of change and renewal.
#31 Mr. UB,
The notion of veterans returning to become teachers brings to mind the teacher in “Starship Troopers.” There was a man who knew the universe from first hand experience and could teach the world as it was. My own favorite teacher was Mr. Bennett in 8th grade science – retired Navy chief, buzz cut, salty language, and all. I still owe him my thanks.
As to what we gain in Afghanstan, besides the politico/cultural, let me share that the world’s new largest producer of yellowcake is nearby Kazakhstan. This whole region is relatively underdeveloped and underexplored commercially.
53 Papa Ray
“But alas, we know this is not possible. They will remain, cowed but still defiant and causing troubles when and where they can.”
No doubt they will still try to cause trouble, and I don’t mean that the left will be eliminated. But they’ve already lost hold of the conversation to a large degree, and although they still have a stranglehold on Public education that can change quickly, or more likely the system they control can be bypassed and left to wither on the vine. Kind of like the Island Hopping campaign in the Pacific during WWII. Vouchers would do a world of good here, and they don’t have to be implemented everywhere to make a huge difference.
Their mouthpieces in the media are going belly up. They only have power because of their monopoly on the conversation, and that’s gone away. Everybody is watching, and they’re out in the open without a lot of cover, but they don’t seem to realize it. They’re playing by the old rules that in many cases no longer apply. Their main saving grace is the weakness of their opposition, and that looks like it might be changing.
I think it’ll take awhile to build up a strong opposition, one who will do more than give lip service to serious reform. Many of the GOP powers-that-be don’t want to change the system, they just want to control it. They, in my opinion, are the main enemy, and need to be swept away before anything can really be done to fix things.
There’s a lot of problems, a lot of what ifs, there’s few who are truly looking out for our interests, and none of this is going to be easy or painless. I don’t think it will be impossible to change things. If I were a lefty I’d be plenty worried right about now, and I think many of them are. They’re losing their grip.
As far as an eventual Military takeover, that would be an absolute disaster that we would never recover from. You think the Gov’t is unresponsive now, wait until that happens. Even if civilian control were somehow restored in the future, the precedent would have been set, and everytime things got dicey people would be wondering what the Military would do.
Nothing succeeds like success, Habu. Both our troops and the Taliban know it. Lose here and the will to use the military anywhere vanishes, and here’s a harsh reality of political life: once the will to use the military vanishes, the will to fund the military vanishes with it. See Gordon Browne and the sad shape of the UK military for an example. Also I’m sure you recall how Carter treated the military after the Vietnam collapse of the will.
So in a roundabout way this really is a life and death struggle for our military, and through them for the future of our country. Once the Taliban is crushed, we can leave. Till then, we must stay, and yes, I understand and accept the implications of that statement.
I also still am still sold on the flypaper theory – a lot of these people hate us so much that they are going to travel anywhere they could to fight us. With this war, we pick the terrain and the timing – we fight on their soil. We fight while they are still relatively weak. If we don’t commit to fighting them on our terms, then we wait until they are strong and we fight them on *our* soil, at a time of *their* choosing.
We went through that on 9/11, we don’t need to learn that lesson all over again.
DTmark – agree with you that a military takeover would be disastrous. A lot of south american countries have tried it, it’s pretty easy to find out how that has almost always turned out. Chile is maybe the one exception to the rule.
Josh #58
While at the Pentagon I did a chart that compared the costs of all the elements of space launch we were spending our money on.
Annually, the Shuttle cost at least twice as much as everything else put together and was projected to grow to at least 3 times as much. After we lost Challenger then it could be told that it was not the cheapest but the most expensive method of putting payload into orbit ever devised, about $100M more per launch than the most expensive version of the Titan IV, which had far more useful capability. And of course it was not particularly safe for the astronauts, either.
And it was the first manned space vehicle that could do no exploration, being limited to altitudes lower than Gemini.
It was a magnificent accomplishment, a technical marvel, but so would be an automobile made completely out of paper mache.
It works but can do nothing that another approach chosen in 1972 would not have done much cheaper and with far greater safety.
The point that Wretchard is making is that the military can become so good at something that the political leadership never has to deal with the fact that they cannot become good at anything.
Or as the saying goes, “We have done so much with so little for so long that we are now expected to do everything with nothing.”
By the way, do y’all recall when Pres Bush announced the Surge in Iraq and said it was necessary because our earlier approach had failed? Can you think of another similar admission by any other politician? I can’t. It’s always been presented that somebody screwed up and has been fired and it’s not the top guy’s fault or he did not get enough support from the other party or we decided we didn’t have to do what we wanted after all or some such. “W”‘s admission is unique and speaks very well of the man indeed.
Reminds me of The Ugly American. The politician was not concerned with solving problems so much as the trappings of the office. The engineer just wanted things to work. Good lesson there (and worth another read for me).
I hope many of the young problem solvers from the military become the mayors and governors of tomorrow. IMHO, most of our current problems began and flourished when power was continually shifted away from the individual states to federal control. The answer then is obvious and one which I will be working for until it is fixed. US citizens would do well to remember, and remind their reps, that national power is only possible through the confederation OF INDIVIDUAL STATES. It is time to remind them of this. (peacefully, legally, I hope)
Josh #58
VB #31: By the way, are y’all aware of the “Troops to Teachers” initiative that does just what you are talking about?
Limpet6:
We will never “win” in Afghanistan without fixing problems in Pakistan as well.
There may be no solution short of fighting a real war in the way that has always been done in the past, through partial or entire genocide and ethnic cleansing, or longterm occupation and re-education of the occupied people.
Our government is not prepared to do what is necessary to fix problems in Pakistan. Our government is also unwilling to do what is necessary to convince the Pashtuns to stop fighting against us or backing Al Qaeda.
Obamassiah has already named a pull out date!
We have been able to suppress Taliban activity, that is all.
Many of the Taliban leadership are now laying low, in Pakistan, and are waiting until we go home.
Obamassiah will declare victory and leave. The Taliban and Islamists everywhere will claim we were driven out. It will be Allah’s victory over the great Satan!
Who’s press do you think will get more play worldwide?
The only redeeming value of continued operation in Af-Pak under currently projected considerations is that any young Islamic whackjob bent on Jihad and fighting the Infidel goes to Afghanistan to take his shot at our soldiers instead of slipping across the U.S. / Mexico border to take his shot at our civilians.
It seems we could save a lot of U.S. blood and treasure by pulling out of Af-Pak sooner rather than later and really securing our borders. Come to think of it, secure borders and a little good old fashioned xenophobia in student visa issuance would have prevented this entire situation in the first place.
62. wws
Thank you for your response.
My comment in #5 was a quick reaction. Looking at those comments that followed by #12 Wretchard, #13 Kinuachdrach, #15 tharkun, #19 Greifer, #28 dtmack, #36 michaelhoskins, # 47 Lifeofthemind, and # 49 wws got me thinking further. Once again, just off of the top of my head, wws’s comment comparing Buraq Hussein Obama to Elagabulus is blatantly unfair and defamatory … to Elagabulus.
The other thing that popped into my head was a quote from Tacitus’ Historiae:
“The secret of empire had been discovered—emperors could be created elsewhere than in Rome.”
The “Year of 3 Emperors” [69 AD] did not arise out of a vacuum. For over a century the political, social, and economic underpinnings of Roman culture had been gutted wholesale. There was nothing that was left that had legitimacy, except the legitimacy of brute force. There was nothing left at the Center to moderate the conduct of the possessors of force, and those at the Center could not even appeal to a belief in a pragmatic competence of the powers in Rome because of the ongoing example of their own lack of competence and prioritizing their personal whims and power at the expense of the citizens of Rome.
I have said that politics is how a society chooses to allocate power and resources short of internal warfare. And that whatever political system a society builds for itself, regardless of its nature, will work so long as there is belief in its internal legitimacy. Once belief in the “rules” of whatever system breaks down, the default recourse is the use of deadly force by one side or another [or by two or more sides] until another internal equilibrium is reached or society collapses entirely.
Looking objectively at our own society; what if any groups have a reputation for competence in efforts that can be said to be for the good of the country or society and not self? If you remove the military from that list, all that I can think of are some religious organizations [when I give to charity, I tend to give to the Salvation Army or to local churches. I am not Christian of any flavor; but that way I can believe that the charity will go to the intended recipients and not to line someone's pocket like more "acceptable" institutional charities].
Belief in the motives, competence, and legitimacy of our government structures is all but non-existent. Belief in politicians’ essential personal and institutional greed for power and money as their primary driving force is a given, regardless of party. The normal means used by citizens to express their opinions to their elected leaders have been rendered moot. Office telephone lines have been literally disconnected before critical votes so that constituents could not reach them [Senator Bennett D-CO that I personally know of]. Email accounts have been shut down. And even postal “snail mail” correctly addressed to members of Congress has been returned as “undeliverable”. If you do get a response, it is obvious that no one has read the letter, email, or phone message you sent because the response is always a form letter that has no conceivable relation to what was sent.
If the Democrat in Congress is one of the increasingly rare group that will actually have a public meeting in the District/State; the meetings are either packed with pre-selected supporters of the Democrats to block out real constituents, or the constituents meet in the shadow of threatened violence by Union/Political thugs in the service of the Democrats. We have recent history showing that any assault by those thugs will not be subject to legal action.
It is no longer a fringe belief that members of Congress are acting anomalously; as if they no longer fear the results of elections.
I was struck by last month’s Rasmussen Poll that found that only 21% of registered voters believe that the government is operating with the “Consent of the Governed” as mentioned in the Declaration of Independence.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2010/only_21_say_u_s_government_has_consent_of_the_governed
It is interesting that Rasmussen was the darling of the Democrats until post inauguration polling using accurate party affiliation breakdowns [not weighted towards Democrats like most other polls] began to show Obama’s and the regime’s declining approval].
This was before the latest tactic in the effort to nationalize all healthcare came out. Since an actual vote in Congress to pass either of the two versions of expropriation come up with solely by the Democrats in the House and Senate is at best problematical; especially in the face of overwhelming opposition and protest by the Plebians, they have come up with a new possible procedure.
Called the “Slaughter Plan”, the procedure is that the Senate nationalization bill will be “deemed” to have been passed by the House by the Congressional leadership and the White House, without any vote having been taken, and treated like a bill that has passed under the procedures set out by the Constitution. In everything but name, that is rule by decree. The Constitution becomes a relic, openly ignored by the Left.
Go back a generation or so, or even a decade or so, and imagine what the public reaction would have been to such a suggestion. Now it is a likely plan of action by the regime.
#19 Greifer said:
It is more likely they will come home, join rotary, coach little league, and realize they need to run for office and evict the Best and Brightest.
What happens when they come home and find that there is no “there” there to rejoin, as far a civil society is concerned? What happens when the Constitution to which they have sworn the Oath is dragged in the dust? What happens when the rule of law, consent of the governed, due process, and citizens having standing before the State based on inalienable Rights becomes nothing more than a sham like the old Soviet Constitution giving cover for a functional dictatorship?
One thing about politics. It is the art of the possible, theoreticians notwithstanding. If you are already under a dictatorship; your choice is not one of restoring freedom by standing pat and thinking politically correct thoughts about a Constitution that has been rendered moot or risking a future dictatorship by fighting back. It is a choice between enduring an existing dictatorship now, and the possibility of either risking a different dictatorship in the future or having a chance to restore the Constitutional liberty that has already been lost.
Despite the odds, the decision tree is enduring bondage, or taking a chance that might yield freedom.
Which will our real heroes choose?
And will it result in a Gaius Julius Caesar, or a new gathering of Framers who will “secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity” once again?
We cannot know until we tread an arduous path, with the ultimate end unknown, and the personal fates of those who walk that path in doubt. And failure to choose, is itself a choice.
Plant the Seed in our Homeland, Boys!
Let it grow where all can see.
Feed it with our Devotion, Boys!
Call it the Liberty Tree!
Subotai Bahadur
Let’s return for a moment to the thread’s theme.
Summed up by this:
I learned at JSOC,” McChrystal explained, “that any complex task is best approached by flattening hierarchies. Further embellished by how the military has hit upon what might be the “winning” strategy.
I read a whole bunch of embellishment and tangential reasoning about this and that but so far our our eyes on the prize has either eluded me or the BC cadre is ADD on exactly what the prize is if we succeed.
Where is all brain power analysis we tout in answering the BASIC question.
What’s the prize?
I’ve advocated in the past simply nuking the place which met with bewilderment, so what do we do, stay in AFG even after obama has announced a withdrawl date.
What’s the prize?
RWE @ 63
Shuttle: It works but can do nothing that another approach chosen in 1972 would not have done much cheaper and with far greater safety.
150,000 pounds empty weight, and probably 80% of that is not payload necessary, even if some of it is reentry necessary. OBVIOUSLY this is not going to be a cheap way to deliver packages, and no doubt it was oversold (not to mention over original spec weight).
Our ground to orbit technology is the stopper. I hope we can do better over the next twenty years, but no doubt the physics, not to mention the engineering, are seriously hard.
Topic: The point that Wretchard is making is that the military can become so good at something that the political leadership never has to deal with the fact that they cannot become good at anything.
Is that the point?
(When I was first writing some tech stuff years ago, and showed it to a writer friend for review, he kept asking me, “What are you trying to say here?”, and usually I could condense it by 90% once I answered that question!)
But, political skill and achievement is just a very different animal. Anyone elected, is “good at something”.
-
ps – got a pop-under to a youtube video when I went to this page, never had one before from PJM, suspect a rogue ad, hope the popunder is the extent of it.
Wretchard:
Hasn’t the American military developed these kinds of skills in the past, but simply forgotten them? The Phillipines in particular come to mind.
Wretchard, this is the key paragraph you wrote:
“The inability of the West to come up with an comprehensive military, political and economic solution to the challenge of failed states has been partly masked by the acquisition of those skills within the military through experience.”
———————-
Ahem. There is no solution to failed states because failed states are caused by failed people, nearly all of the time. Afghanistan is a mess because Afghanis, not Swiss, live there. Pakistan is a menace to the world because it is filled with Pakistanis. Mexico is a failed state because Mexicans themselves have proven throughout history to be incapable of governing themselves even half-way wisely.
The US military can keep band-aids on, but lacking massive transformations of the people inside those nations, nothing will change. Japan after 1945 had most of its young men from a generation killed or seriously wounded in battle, nearly all of its cities destroyed, the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki proof positive of the Emperor’s impotence and stupidity. Defeat changed Japan, irrevocably and massively.
And we are going to see something new to “defeat” the Muslim peoples (and others) that pose massive security threats to Americans. It will likely be led by the military, the only institution that works. It is likely to be based on the ethno-state, because very extended family loyalties are the only ties that really bind and provide trust (that the man beside you will risk his life for you).
Kaplan is right to be concerned. Will Americans be willing to die for Obama’s “blame Whitey(tm)” post-Multiculturalism? Willing to endure massive shocks (oil, electricity, water, food, monetary, other), grinding poverty, huge scarcities, bankrupt governments, personal security risks, and masses of Americans being killed? Because the security and economic and financial and governance bubbles provided by cheap oil and American Military dominance over all threats is coming to an end. And these are exactly the kind of things coming.
The US Military is mostly White, and the combat units nearly all White as are the casualties. It has always been so. Kaplan sees the end of the multicultural dream. The end of PC. In times of huge stress (imagine post-Nuked America, or post oil shocks of oil not at $140 a barrel as in 2008, but nearly $300) the whole PC/Multiculti empire comes apart like Colonel Blimps only with Apple Iphone toting aging trendy hippies as Blimp. And the men who replace them are almost uniformly White, combat vets, capable of handling life and death decisions because they’ve done it before and can trust their buddies with their lives.
If life consists of only choosing which Latte you’ll drink while writing your study of Trans-gendered Mexican Men on the Border, then any tragically hip ex-hippie radical will do, spreadiing the never-ending money around. If life consists of people dying if the electricity is not heroically restored after some disaster, then only the truly competent need apply and no one needs or listens to aging hippies.
The problem of failed states and failed peoples will generally be solved by wiping them out, by an angry, weary, beleagured populace unwilling and unable to cut them any slack. After Ed Driscoll’s “Rendezvous with Scarcity.”
Short version: huge volatile swings in prices of almost everything as security and monetary systems and everything else breaks down in a global system that amplifies not tamps down volatility, the only things that “work” are high-trust networks of ethno-states and ethnicity (distantly related kin) and the military.
RWE @ 63 said:
“By the way, do y’all recall when Pres Bush announced the Surge in Iraq and said it was necessary because our earlier approach had failed? Can you think of another similar admission by any other politician? I can’t. It’s always been presented that somebody screwed up and has been fired and it’s not the top guy’s fault or he did not get enough support from the other party or we decided we didn’t have to do what we wanted after all or some such. “W”’s admission is unique and speaks very well of the man indeed.”
It’s starting to look like George W. Bush will end up on the same pedestal with Harry S. Truman. I still take pride in having voted for George W. Bush. Maybe after America is done with the Messiah, we might consider reelecting George W. Bush as president as we did with Grover Cleveland?
Wouldn’t it be wonderful to watch all the moonbat’s heads explode?
Habu @69:
There is no prize in Afghanistan. It was only ever attractive to Al Qaeda because it was poor, remote, Muslim, and had no effective government. Al Qaeda moved in with their Zakat funding from Gulf states and played the rich, big men. They could buy cooperation where they couldn’t persuade it under color of that being the proper thing to do as Muslims. Despite many flaws, the Pashtun have a long history of welcoming and protecting guests, certainly rich guests!
Everything that made Afghanistan a useful base can be found on the horn of Africa, or in Yemen, in Pakistan, Malaysia, or elsewhere. If we were to make Afghanistan unusable to Al Qaeda and the Taliban through genocide, ethnic cleansing, effective longterm occupation & nation building, or thermonuclear sterilization, Islamist terrorists would simply pick up and move completely into Pakistan or one of the other previously listed suitable locations.
We’re not going to “win” in Afghanistan.
Since we’re unwilling to elliminate those who will attack us, the answer is looking increasingly like some version of Fortress America.
I find that a sad thought, but I don’t see any realistic alternatives at this point. I believe the heavy internal security that will be necessary to pull it off will cause a civil war.
Does anyone see any better, realistic alternative?
Eggplant #73:
I am proud of “W” also. He was not perfect, no one is, but he grows in stature each day that Baroque stumbles through another day. And you know is so very ironic? “Bush Lied” was a standard chant of the Left but I cannot think of even one single case where “W” was caught in a lie. Compare that with Obama’s mounting toll.
You heard stories about President Bush, not things that were advertised, but ones that trickled out, and they all made him look good. And they are still coming out; he and his wife quietly visited the wounded at Ft. Hood.
A few weeks back I was stopped at a traffic light and a man pulled up next to me and said “I like your bumper sticker.” I still have a Bush/Cheny sticker on my car.
72. whiskey
You’re right on target, bravo.
It’s as if the aging hippies are still in a purple haze, unaware of the fragile sate this nation is in currently. The average American has less than $10,000 in retirement accounts, we’ve got a mulatto maniac running (actually not running ,just throwing sand in the machinery on a daily basis)the country, cronyism is Tammany Hall scale and we have Goldman Sachs alums sacking the country. And we think that our military in AFG will prevail……so what if they do. It isn’t sustainable. This country will be damn lucky to remain at the top of the pyramid, damn lucky.
As Armageddon Rex properly points out in his opening remarks in #74, There is no prize in Afghanistan .
what McCrystal has described is a perfect example of “self-organization,” a concept Wretchard frequently invokes. One of the key requirements to the procewss of self-organization is jostling the system, i.e., putting “uncomfortable” pressure on the troops to perform.
What makes Kaplan and the Lightowrker uncomfortable is that the results of self-organization are so complicated that the results are not only uncontrolled (unpredictable) but also incomprehensible.
One way of looking at the process is that providing extra energy to an unstable system, a new arrangement of the elements is created which is more stable.
The Tea Parties are a similar phenomenon, whose result is yet to be seen.
74. Armageddon Rex:
As you can read above I have already used your thought and believe you are correct in the coming internecine conflict as obama continues to curry favor with the islams while threatening Israel. That policy coupled with everything he touches, which turns on Marxists principles, money, ownership of production and diminishing personal freedom will solidify an already hugely divided United States and chaos will ensue.
As Papa Ray says … buy more ammo.
Kaplan should read up on the US Army in the great Western America before the Civil War. Talk about chaos, cluster ducks, no support and a bunch of Army guys doing the best they could with what they had, until Washington did or didn’t or reversed or what ever order came down. And, it worked.
49. wws: & 68. Subotai Bahadur:
One of the inherent risks of using historical analogies is that the areas of congruence are rarely fully so. There are often enough, however, to provide some useful insights.
In this case I believe you might be over thinking it a bit. My reference to Aetius was with regard to Subotai’s comment about Obama being unable to tolerate our military’s success without attempting to undermine it.
One of the ways he could do this might be to either seize upon or contrive some pretext to discipline, remove or otherwise humiliate McChrystal or Petraeus in order to demoralize our military and discredit its most capable commanders who, by their success, represent a threat to him and his agenda.
For example, Obama could, in an attempt to force them into public defiance, mandate such suicidally untenable rules of engagement, or order them to undertake military operations they tell him beforehand will be so utterly disastrous, that no honorable commander could obey those orders.
Obama is no Valentinian, and no physical threat to McChrystal or Petraeus. That’s not how things are done these days. He is, however, fully capable of pulling a Truman/MacArthur type stunt, and with the media covering for him, getting away with it.
For the purpose of this discussion, that sabotage/betrayal type of scenario was the intent and extent of my Aetius analogy.
This weekend is do or die time for our healthcare, folks.
Do whatever you can.
Give whatever you can to those running against vulnerable Dems.
http://www.capitolconnect.com/freeourhealthcarenow/
To send a letter to your elected Representative AND to The Blue Dog Democrat Coalition, whose 58 members hold the fate of Obamacare in their hands, just fill in the (Short Simple) Registration form and click “Take Action.”
LOTM #47 I agree with you close to 100%. However, I don’t like to see even implied advocacy for democracy. Our present government is only one of a long string of failures which have tried to use it. Our founding fathers were wiser. Its system of electors and senators was designed to transcend the democratic process. The circumvention of the electoral college, the amendment to elect senators democratically and universal suffrage have brought us to this pretty pass. All were in the name of furthering “democracy.”
Habu @78:
I find myself once again hoping you are wrong, but more or less convinced you are correct.
Yes, I need to buy more ammo, and a better optic for my Garand…
Be Prepared!
71. Don Rodrigo
I believe you are correct. What W outines currently in the military isn’t a new concept at all. It goes by the name of chain of command and the responsibility each military person knows may some day come their way; to make the call.
However since entering the nuclear age and the meglomaniac LBJ and better communication the politicians have been making all the decisions that are properly the responsibility of the commanders on the ground. obama is too busy fleecing and instituting Marxism that he’s had this flattening out process develop in the military , which no doubt he will put a stop to since it isn’t the way things are done in Chicago by his gangsters.
BTW does anyone know if RICO covers SRO’s like the SEC, or private banks like the FED? There are I believe some opportunities there for prosecution….come on Habu , with Eric Holder as AG..get real…
A case here of deja voodoo as I asked hereon 6-8 months ago: “What does “win” look like in Afghanistan? All the taliban dead, girls educated without fear, purple fingers, poppies withering in the field?” or some such question. My memory isnt what it never was and I a damned sure too lazy to look back through the threads. I agree that our well trained fighting men and women could better serve us here as the need for clear thinkers is greater than ever in the CONUS theater of operations, with speaker Pelosi spouting such stupid sh*t as “you have to pass the bill to see whats in it”.
I and others here and on other sites have discussed the fact that the democrats (or at least most of them) in Congress act like they don’t have to worry about America’s votes.
It has been asked: “Now why is that?”
Yes indeed, WHY? Are they immune from our votes, do they really think that they will still be left standing after all the harm and the planned harm is done to America?
Many think that they crats believe that they can “influence” the votes and negate our anger at the polls. They certainly have enough money to cause lots of folk to vote or even vote trice the way the crats want, but is ACORN and affiliates all that they are counting on? Or is it something that is unimaginable now but could come to pass at just the right (for them) time?
On the other subject: Our Military. I have been in contact via email, snail mail and in person with many of today’s veterans both still in and those just out. I think I know one reason that most of them came back with concerning why they fight or fought and what did they get out of it. Of course there is the main reason that they fought. Self preservation and the preservation of those in their unit and even other units. But, the other reason I heard repeated over and over is one that I am personally acquainted with from my war.
Helping those that need help. It is a simple yet old reason that runs through America’s past, right up to today. No there is no “win” there but there is personal satisfaction.
I felt it when I served. One of the terrible things that almost ruined me was when we abandoned the S. Vietnamese, broke our word to them and had to just sit back day after day, month after month watching them being slaughtered, imprisoned, drowning trying to escape and other terrible trials that they were forced to go through because we didn’t keep our word.
The Afgan is one or two steps away from the stone age. Yet I fought along side men that were almost still in the stone age. And fine freedom loving men they were.
We called them “Yards” which was short for Montagnards. Look them up up on the web, they fight like little devils yet remind me of midwest American farmers.
They hated the Vietnamese, both north and south, and were glad to fight and quick to take to us Americans.
They would do well in the Afghan fighting the Taliban and aQ.
Papa Ray
82. winslow:
Santorum gave a rundown of all the changes to the rules the lefties have made since 1917 the better to grow Big Govt and the Control they crave.
(Originally, 1 Senator could filibuster anything indefinitely.)
Scary, in that they now have less compunction than ever to follow the rules.
winslow,
I don’t like to see even implied advocacy for democracy
We have been around this before. Your position of support for Republican institutions including the Electoral College is one that I agree with. Those institutions derive their legitimacy from the people in a system that provides circuit breakers on passing passions but which is still rooted in the sovereignty of the people. The meta-Legislature is the same as the Citizenry which is the same as the Militia. The functional legislature is less direct and universal but that does not remove the fact that ultimate legitimate authority derives from and en extremis reverts to the people. That is why I call it a Democracy. The only alternatives are a self selecting Monarchy, which Polybius noted becomes a Tyranny, or a self selecting Aristocracy, which will degenerate into an Oligarchy.
My suspicion is that many on the Left feel threatened by the military. The competence the military demonstrates at tasks the socialists conspicuously fail at only makes the hostility of the leftists greater. The campaign to defang the armed forces proceeds on several fronts. Not only is it being simply defunded and shrunken, the Navy being now smaller than it has been since 1916, with critical programs like strategic systems being gutted but other efforts continue that will help delegitimatize the legacy of the military and also discourage talented people from joining.
In that context the expenditure of political capital on the promulgation of homosexuality in the Armed Forces makes some sense. Otherwise given how small the services are it makes no sense at all since there would be no problem filling the available slots without repealing DADT or even by going back to the prior regime of ban, expose and expel. What the repeal will do is make the services less attractive to many young people and their families. Who will send a 18 year old into the Navy knowing that there will be no bar to a sexual predator being placed in their berthing compartment or in a position of authority?
To be blogged under the title “Democracy and DADT.”
If we “win” in Afghanistan, exactly what is our prize? Habu.
Between the Russian Afghan war, the Gulf War and 9/11, the foundation, growth and expansion of a terrorist group we know as Al Queda has been demonstrated to have occurred due to our failure to stay engaged. The same failure which plagues our efforts in Central and South America, where incredibly positive democratic change, usually due to the tremendous efforts of US Marines have been squandered time and again.
As a nation we abandoned Afghanistan leaving a country torn by nearly a decade of war. Afghanistan’s young population was orphan and placed in the hands of the Pakistani Pashtun and the ISS inspired Taliban, with Madrassas steeped in unconventional Sunni Islamist doctrine and teaching hate.
Victory in Afghanistan allows those people the opportunity to live in a country not only closer demographically and socially to what they were like prior to the Soviet invasion and the civil wars that followed but with improved power grids, transportation and communications. Victory in Afghanistan by definition also means a victory of sorts by the people of Pakistan over the ISI and Islamist fundamentalists. Victory in Afghanistan means allowing the next generations of Arabs and Muslum’s the opportunity to define what Islam is and what it is not, and perhaps to slip the bonds of its cruel and crude beginning.
Victory in Afghanistan allows us time. Time to sort out our own flawed government, to make it more in line with what the Constitution intended and less a device of the power hungry. Because to lose in Afghanistan would be to invite in the wolves and inspire the jackals.
Still, it would be foolish not to buy ammo.
What is the prize in Afghanistan?
You have all talked around the idea. Perhaps we all expect that banner to be unfurled again: “Mission Accomplished.” But things seldom appear in the form that we expect – the unwrapped present is not what we thought it was originally.
Perhaps the prizet is nothing more than a competent military that has acquired the capabilities that it needs to rebuild our country when the time comes.
Subotai @68:
That was a grand screed!
This is over my head but others that supposedly know are taking this very seriously.
CHART OF THE DAY: The Real-Time Indicator That Says The Consumer Is Already Rolling Over
Buy more Ammo.
Papa Ray
83. Armageddon Rex
I know how you feel about wishing i was wrong, but knowing I’m not.
BC is a strong site. Sometimes strength can become ones greatest weakness and what I asked today was as straightforward a question as can be asked about our involvement in AFG. Few had answers but nonetheless wrote, not on the thread but around the thread. Recitations of AFG history, the Taliban abounded, etc. I was as guilty asking my question.
When Tony Blair came and addressed a Joint Session of Congress he asked and answered why America needed to fight in Iraq and AFG. Something along the lines of “because at this time and place in history we are the only nation that can do the job” That was then.
I asked about where the weenie was because I have no doubt that our enemies, China,Russia,Venezuela,Cuba……the list is long, will never stop subverting our efforts to introduce “stable” western style governments on countries that are so far removed from that concept that failure once we depart their ground is preordained . Presently we are poised to lose our preeminent world position to the Chinese for the same reason Great Britain lost her empire following WWI. The twin caustic killers; debt and galloping socialism. The numbers going forward for us to get out of that debt are not possible because there is no demographic model that will get us there before we are a second tier nation. obama created our tipping point.
We can no longer sustain this nightmare of being world protector and largest debtor nation to our biggest threat, China. In WWI we had the UK in the same position. This time is no different and the results will be the same. It’s a cry’n shame.
Whatever else happens, the military will be returning to a home very different from the one from which they shipped. More different for those who’ve re-upped and done multiple deployments.
It’s easy to get morose sometimes. (I will try to be less ose…) But today when I stopped to leave some shirts at the cleaners, there was a hand-lettered sign “pick-up only.” Leaving my shirts in the car I walked in, and the lady who has greeted me with a big smile for the last six years said the owners had told her three days ago they’re closing the place.
Next on the itinerary was a fine luncheon on minced beef at a well-known burger franchise, where for years the joint has provided a widescreen wall-mounted TV with Fox News featuring highly entertaining typos in the scrolling captions.
The screen was gone; nothing but some naked connecting wires and a metal plate with empty bolt-holes. Well, that’s gonna save the place the monthly cable fee and all that electricity. And the cash register had a crabby sign telling customers “No free water cups or Ice. $1.00 charge for ice & cup”
There are other signs of stress – increasing workload for the perfessers where I teach, substantial jump in tuition and fees, no replacement of faculty who have announced plans to decamp.
It’s hard not to brace one’s self against the anticipated blow-up… these seem to be the metaphoric tiny cracks appearing in the dam, evidence of titanic strain that will not give much more warning before catastrophic collapse.
Some accounts of the history of Rome mention that in the late empire corrupt patricians ceased sending their sons into service in the Legions to go off to participate in distant campaigns. Roman divisions in whose ranks the pride of the aristocracy had once marched still made a very great army. But many small-holders and merchants and working farmers returned from their service to find their little plots of land, their vineyards, and their cottages confiscated by the high-born.
Damn. I can see how the few Democrats who have a couple brain cells to spare for some imagination might be a little worried about how returning vets are gonna react when they see how totally f****d up Obama’s gotten the country while they were out getting IED stains all over their cammies.
Mad Fiddler
“Whatever else happens, the military will be returning to a home very different from the one from which they shipped. More different for those who’ve re-upped and done multiple deployments.”
That is true. Here is an article reminiscent of my era back in the late sixtys.
“Young veterans face steep unemployment”
What the article doesn’t really point out is that those veterans who chose not to extend or re-up still are obligated to more active Military Service should the Military deem it so, but which is unlikely unless things really go to hell.
Of the Veterans I know and correspond with most have found some type of employment, maybe not what they want but are employed. Some have deemed to take advantage of their benefits and have went back to school relying on their parents to give them room and board or money to live on.
Not really expanded on in the above article is that “some” employers are leery of hiring Vets because they think that they may be unreliable or subject to mental illness and go off and do something violent or even harm someone.
This is apparently less now than back in my day but there are still some that shun ex-military because of their bias or fears. I have had this confirmed by two of my Vet corespondents, who were asked how they thought they were effected by their service, and other questions about their stability and/or ability to integrate in the workforce.
Anyway, food for thought when thinking that all of America is going to welcome back our Veterans and how they are going to treat them or give them a fair chance to compete in the job market.
Have a good weekend.
Papa Ray
94. Mad Fiddler
The probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.
The U.S. has no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon. Bankrupt sovereign states most commonly use the currency printing press as a solution to not having enough money to cover obligations. The alternative would be for the U.S. to renege on its existing debt and obligations, a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution, and a solution with no happier ending than simply printing the needed money. With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat dollars (not backed by gold or silver) will come the eventual destruction of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets.
What lies ahead will be extremely difficult, painful and unhappy times for many in the United States. The functioning and adaptation of the U.S. economy and financial markets to a hyperinflation likely would be particularly disruptive. Trouble could range from turmoil in the food distribution chain to electronic cash and credit systems unable to handle rapidly changing circumstances. The situation quickly would devolve from a deepening depression, to an intensifying hyperinflationary great depression.
While the economic difficulties would have global impact, the initial hyperinflation should be largely a U.S. problem, albeit with major implications for the global currency system. For those living in the United States, long-range strategies should look to assure safety and survival, which from a financial standpoint means preserving wealth and assets. Also directly impacted, of course, are those holding or dependent upon U.S. dollars or dollar-denominated assets, and those living in “dollarized” countries.
In other words, the economic cycle will come back with a vengeance. Having pulled America out of the abyss by the last hairs on its Rogaine infused head, the Fed and the Administration have merely purchased one-two years of excess time in which insiders can sell all their holdings (look at recent reports indicating the ratio of insider sellers to buyers) and banks can book one/two years of record bonuses before signing off.
And whether one is a deflationist or inflationist, the take home message from Williams’ thesis that everyone should be able to agree on, is what everyone knows yet is unwilling to admit: that the US economy (and its derivative, the undecoupled global economy, which that most certainly includes China) is that we are now caught in the greatest Ponzi bubble of all time. One small hiccup in which there is no incremental hollow value added on the margin courtesy of printing presses pushing fiat pieces of paper in overtime, would lead to precisely the same outcome as the world saw with Bernie Madoff: from $50 billion to 0 overnight. It is somehow fitting that world GDP is 1,000 time greater, at $50 trillion. Take away the fiat illusion, and the real value collapses to those concepts of tangible value that will remain in a post bubble implosion scenario: whether these be spam, gold, or lead.
And just so there is no confusion about the course of events, Williams presents the Zimbabwe hyperinflation episode as the case study that the historian Bernanke should have been focusing on, instead of spending long nights, “learning” from the Great Depression.
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, the former Rhodesia, was a quadrillion times worse than it was in Weimar Germany. Zimbabwe went through a number of years of high inflation, with an accelerating hyperinflation from 2006 to 2009, when the currency was abandoned. Through three devaluations, excess zeros repeatedly were lopped off notes as high as 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.
In early-2009, the governor of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank indicated he felt his actions in printing money were vindicated by the recent actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the U.S. went through a hyperinflation like that of Zimbabwe’s, total U.S. federal debt and obligations (roughly $75 trillion with unfunded liabilities) could be paid off for much less than a current penny.
What helped to enable the evolution of the Zimbabwe monetary excesses over the years, while still having something of a functioning economy, was the back-up of a well functioning black market in U.S. dollars. The United States has no such backup system, however, with implications for a more rapid and disruptive hyperinflation than seen in Zimbabwe, when it hits.
Maybe in retrospect it is good that banks are not lending out. If the $1.2 trillion in excess reserves were to actually hit circulating currency overnight, or even in a much more gradual fashion, then hyperinflation would surely be unavoidable, not so much as function of the consumer becoming a dominant force once again, which is the deflationists’ key point, but as a result of the excess liquidity of the capital markets, which is the only reason why the S&P is where it is, into Main Street. As it stands, banks’ unwillingness to recreate the cheap credit bubble by lending to anyone who has a pulse and can walk is the only thing that is so far preventing America’s name change to the United States of Zimbabwe.
Tyler Durden put this in perspective.
Habu @ 93:
“It is better to rule in Hell than serve in heaven!”
Yes, our long-term financial outlook and gargantuan debt are severe problems, but it’s the conflict with socialism that is the killer. I expect that to correct itself, peacefully or otherwise, as things continue to deteriorate.
I see some very rough times ahead for the U.S. and the entire planet, but not necessarily with the U.S. becoming a 2nd tier power compared to other nations. This scenario is certainly not new, but with the way the U.S. is moving and the fragility revealed in international banking and commerce I believe it has changed from a fantasy of survivalists into a serious possibility.
I’ve been told this is called the “Better to rule in Hell…” scenario! It works like this:
The U.S. repudiates its debt, all of it! A world wide economic and trade crash immediately follows. A monster depression grips the entire world for at least one or two decades. Everyone pulls themselves up by their bootstraps and rebuilds as best they can with what they have or can get. What will this mean?
For Russia, at a minimum it means seizing Ukraine if that’s still necessary and they aren’t already close allies when the crash comes. This will enable Russia to feed their population.
For China it means curtains for the economy they’ve built up over the past 30+ years, and 150 million+ folks who once had middle class pretensions going back to being subsistence farmers. China will probably go to an immediate war footing and invade and loot as many neighbors as is necessary to prop up their economy at least somewhat in the short term, and to keep the masses occupied. This would also provide brides to those millions of young Chinese men whose potential mates were aborted do to cultural preferences and China’s “One Child” policy. I would expect China to seize petroleum assets in Brunei and elsewhere in that region for the same strategic reasons that motivated imperial Japan 70 years ago.
North Korea will either surrender, or there will be a short and nasty war on the Korean peninsula. The DPRK will not be able to continue without the goods passed to it from China, which will have better things to do with its food, resources, and production.
Mexico and most of Central America will crash economically. Riots will be widespread. The U.S. will really seal it’s border with Mexico for the first time in history, and without that outlet to serve as a pressure relief valve, and without funds regularly wired from Estadas Unidos to Mexico, there will quickly be a civil war. The depression will effect the U.S. as well, and people will forgo fast food, new construction, and gardeners. Many Mexican immigrants in the U.S. will find themselves out of work and unable to wire money back home. As an aside, this is already happening now, and is putting considerable strain on many rural areas of Mexico.
Many third world countries will dissolve in civil war when food and other resources become scarce. Tribal and ethnic tensions that have been papered over will flare up again.
In Europe, governments will seize even more of their economies. Martial law will sweep the continent. Nations such as France & Switzerland, who have built a robust infrastructure of Nuclear and hydroelectric power stations, and have lavishly funded indigenous farmers will suddenly be seen as wise instead of profligate protectionists.
Large parts of Europe are likely to have widespread rioting and small-scale insurgent warfare when government checks stop arriving in mailboxes of Muslim immigrants. Others have written at length about the likely bloodbath that will ensue.
To sum up, the whole world dissolves into shit. Those countries best able to deal with the near total collapse in international trade will be the ones with indigenous resources, varied economies, and governments capable of coping somewhat effectively with such a crisis. The list is relatively short: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, France, the U.S., the U.K. and China. Of these, China would be the rockiest, perhaps losing 10%-30% of its population before things stabilized, while Australia might have grave difficulties with water, and New Zealand has very limited energy resources. I expect almost everywhere else to be a disaster for over twenty years.
The U.S. has abundant natural resources, if government would just get the Hell out of the way and let them be developed. We have a diverse climate, fertile land in abundance, and a young enough population to work those fields, build factories, and rejuvenate our economy. In short, we have options not open to most nations on earth who have shrinking and aging populations, completely inadequately educated populations, limited land mass, a dearth of resources, or who have economies based on one dimension only, such as cheap export of manufactured goods in uneven trade to permissive markets, or pumping oil and natural gas as the sole means of obtaining foreign goods. Many nations on earth are large net importers of basic foodstuff.
In any serious international crisis, with the exception of the Ukraine, France, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. there will be widespread hunger. In many parts of the third world tens or hundreds of millions will likely die from famine or complications related to malnutrition in just the first and second year of a worldwide crisis.
Russia, and nearly every OPEC country are entirely dependent upon petroleum production and export to maintain their economies. In a worldwide depression, they will have very few customers, and those customers won’t be paying much for oil. Many OPEC nations are large net importers of food. People in the Middle East will starve if worldwide trade collapses.
Eco-fascists have been saying we need to cut the world human population dramatically. Here’s a way to cut at least 1-2 billion from the total in less than 20 years.
After the ashes cool, America picks itself up, washes itself off, and resumes its place as leader of a world nearly as devastated as Europe following the Second World War.
#97 Armageddon Rex
I don’t argue with your scenario, albeit I consider it to be the best case possible once the financial SHTF. However, you have to take note of further Black Swans in related fields that may be flocking. First and foremost is the matter of the possession of nukes in countries that are unstable on a good day when, with the exception of North Korea, it is possible for people to actually have an expectation of there being a next meal; albeit it may be pretty meager. Good days are gonna be rarer and rarer. Further, external war is the traditional regime distraction from internal problems. Looking at Pakistan, Iran, India, and North Korea alone there is every possibility of a gigantic glow-in-the-dark furball breaking out between them and their neighbors. I do not count China and Russia as being much more stable once it gets hungry out. Granting, I already do expect us to lose one or more cities to terrorist WMD in the next couple of years. Any further losses, here or overseas, would retard the recovery that you posit beginning in about 20 years.
There is also the likelihood in such a scenario that Russia will not stop with the Ukraine. Western European countries who have a semi-functional agricultural system and power system would be pretty tempting. And to be honest, I see very little to stop them. [Yeah, I know.]
Then there is the assumption that The U.S. has abundant natural resources, if government would just get the Hell out of the way and let them be developed.. Not with this government. Which problem therefore includes a subset of returning the country to some semblance of Constitutional government, with some concern for its citizens. That poses a non-trivial problem.
That problem is getting worse. Apparently, Nancy Pelosi is scheduling a vote on Health Care nationalization this next coming weekend. Once again, middle of the night on a weekend with C-SPAN shut down and this coming week we can expect to see the Democrats in bunker mode and deliberately incommunicado. There is at least some word that right now Pelosi and Reid are drafting special “Rules” that will allow the “leadership” of Congress [cabal being a more accurate term, perhaps] to implement the “Slaughter procedure” [named after Democrat Rep. Louise Slaughter who came up with the idea] wherein the “leadership” will invoke the rules to “deem” the Senate version of the Health Care nationalization to have been functionally already passed by the House intact without any inconvenient vote taking place, and sending it on to the White House for signature. The House will then consider a bill to provide enough perks and cover to pay its members off the way the Senate was bought.
This being entirely outside the Constitution and functionally equivalent to rule by decree by an oligarchy; the non-trivial problem comes to the fore and becomes even less trivial every day and makes matters far more problematic for those who remember a certain Oath and for most civilians a certain Pledge. There is nothing to keep the same procedure from being used repeatedly and permanently.
Use of this political procedure once is as much of an undeniable early warning as having all the screens in the War Room at NORAD light up with IR blooms in the Russian missile fields. They would dare not ever have real, honest elections ever again.
The word to look up today is:
Ermächtigungsgesetz
and for extra credit:
Gesetz zur Behebung der Not von Volk und Reich
Those seeking an “A” in the vocabulary lesson will ponder the nature of the relationship between the individual citizen and an illegitimate government permanently acting outside the Constitution.
That particular non-trivial problem may extend your timeline by a significant amount, if not void any theoretical recovery.
And no, I admit I am not a patient of Dr. Pangloss.
Habu
I was not ignoring your question about Afghanistan, just busy “screed”-ing [smile].
Given the restrictions on our deployment and rules of engagement, the fact that our supply lines all run through what is functionally enemy territory, and the not unreasonable expectation that a combination of internal problems and disgust with the way “Teh Lightworker” is treating them will have our NATO allies pulling out shortly; our victory conditions should probably be considered to be a successful withdrawal of US and Aussie forces and equipment and hopefully the ability to come in and play whack-a-mole from a distance every time the enemy pops their heads up. There is no way with the restrictions on both deployment time,ROE, and force levels allowed that any concept of nation building is going to take. Buraq Hussein has already guaranteed to the Taliban and Al Quada that they have but to wait us out and we will leave them alone to attack us later at home in perfect safety.
I suspect we see eye to eye.
Subotai Bahadur
This is fascinating. It illustrates a couple of trends I’ve noticed elsewhere:
Central control of anything is a failure. The last of the 20th century centralized control organizations are on their last legs. The Pentagon doesn’t have a clue, the smart people in State can barely tie their shoes. The guy on the edge knows and can make it work. If, and that leads to my second point.
There are two types of organizations in their approach to technology. One type uses technology to empower the center. Vast amounts of data giving an illusion of insight, decision making done far away from the implementation and consequences. The second type uses technology to empower the edge. Oddly enough, Walmart does this. The center can do some things very well, and smart organizations recognize what they are, and do them. And then empower the edge by giving tools, information, support. The center sets the agenda, ‘win in Afghanistan’, capture market share, whatever. The edge implements using local knowledge supported by the data and tools provided by the center.
Government hates this. The only reason it is working in Afghanistan is the lack of interest, or the no win political situation that it entails. All the while Obama is trying to control from the center health care.
I don’t think many institutions will survive the decade. There is a huge proportion of the US and world economy that is structured around 5% growth rates and free money, and cannot survive without them. Governments are structured around 8-10% growth rates, and are continuing to grow while revenues are showing and maintaining serious declines. The guy on the edge who knows local and can make something work is the enemy to these folks.
The organizations of government and commerce that empower the edge will survive. The others not. And it will be ugly, because the centralizing controllers must have power pried from their hands. That won’t happen until they face catastrophic failure with no one available to bail them out.
Interesting times.
Derek
Strange thing is that we owe the Afghans.
Have you forgotten?
They helped us win the Cold War.
Where is your honor?
Subotai @98:
I have thought about the black swans. Many of those scenarios go away when the going gets tough. Most of the non-state actors receive nearly all their funding, in one form or another, from the existing international financial system. When that system implodes, so does their funding, support, reach, etc.
If some terrorist group has equiped itself for a major strike before the SHTF and then executes the strike afterwards as if nothing had already happened, well that’s just unlucky timing and a giant crap sandwich for the target of the attack.
Most state actors will find many more usefull things to do with very limited resources than to cause trouble for Americans who are mostly half a world away. For authoritarian nations like China and Russia, Iran and Syria, a world wide collapse will cause severe hardship in the category of nearly every manufactured good you can imagine. For Russia, China and Iran, their primary streams of revenue will vanish overnight. Perhaps Syria can be included in this list as well since they get a great deal of support from Iran. They will instead be devoting resources to maintaining power. When they start to look beyond their borders it will be toward easily accessable, easily conquored neighbors who can be looted to improve the situation of the agressors ruling elite.
That’s not to say that China won’t attempt to invade Taiwan and Iran won’t attempt to nuke Israel if they have a working weapon system by then. I believe both become highly probable in a global economic collapse as a tool to distract their own populations from the long lines at banks, fuel stations, and groceries. It’s all so much easier to blame all the woes on those capitalist pigs in Taipai, or those damned filthy jews in Tel Aviv than to take the reigns and fix your economy with the resources at hand. It’s almost always easier, and safer for ruling elite, to blame “the other” instead of taking concrete actions where positive results are expected.
As for losing one or more cities in a devastating WMD attack, I’m very much afraid you are correct, and that it’s only a matter of when and not if!
When an attack happens, I hope the only city to be struck will be D.C. I’ll regret the loss of innocent life, and the loss of the Smithsonian and so much history, but at least a major attack would also punish the culpable for a change…
I’m now convinced it will take another devastating attack before our government will dispence with security theater at the airports and concentrate on real terrorists.
Who knows, perhaps I can have my cake and eat it too, and they’ll use anthrax or VX or some other non-nuclear attack that will leave the monuments, old buildings and Smithsonian mostly intact for future generations.
Only time will tell. Be Prepared!
Thanks to the military, I presume we will win in Afghanistan. For various values of ‘win’.
Thanks to shale-gas, and the meltdown of Al Gore, our energy future is not bleak.
Thanks to Bush, Rice and Petraeus, Al Qaeda is a crippled dying thing.
With the end of the civil war in Sri Lanka, the world is much more peaceful.
But now we have to face our other self-inflicted problems. Orphan Marxists and suicidal childish European socialists leave economic destruction and dying populations in their wake.
We do need new leadership and maybe those worldwise vets coming back can help.
Isn’t Scott Brown a vet?
Josh,
I decided the coherent view of the Kaplan piece was:
Obama, you’re off leaving those troops in AfPak to keep winning than dare bring them home and return them to civilian life.
97. Armageddon Rex:
I must be a sick puppy, Rex.
I agree with the likelihood of your scenario but am totally unfazed by it.
It sounds like the consequences of our collective actions, nothing more. The mother of all market corrections.
My solar electric system will be up in 3 weeks. It is 800m to my front gate. I have state forest on two sides and 80 very edible kangaroos in my front garden every day, and scores of rabbits.
Australia’s economy has been bulletproof over the Global Financial Crisis because China kept buying Australian coal and iron ore but if China crashes we will be in a similar state to the US.
I just sold my old family house in San Francisco and, likely, not a moment too soon.
The looming correction will clear away a lot of non viable critters, both two legged and four.
May the fittest survive and rise again, and benefit from seeing the world as it really is.
Bob @104:
It sounds like you’re well situated. I don’t know the details of your particular situation, but please keep in mind the nearest city with population of over 10-15,000. Even in Australia where food should be plentiful, things will be dicey for a lot of people. If you’re way out in the country, but close enough to the city for refugees or raiders to find you, you may have to protect your property eventually.
Of course the best defense is distance, remoteness, and invisibility. I hope you have a way to disguise your access road / driveway if possible and that your buildings aren’t visible from any road. If nothing else, make the cleared area where your driveway meets the public road look like a junkyard instead of an access road as soon as the SHTF, and yes, I got that idea from Rawles book Patriots.
Anyone already setting up solar probably already has a reliable well on their property. What about seeds, and gardening? What about medical supplies and care? Any ongoing conditions that require medication?
Perhaps you can make plans for Wretchard to come join you at your refuge if everything goes to Hell.
I hope you’ll be fine when and if the SHTF. Best of luck to you!
Thanks, Rex.
I save the rainwater that hits my shack roofs and currently have 5,000 gallons of good water plus three dams.
I am 2 km from the nearest paved road on a hilly dirt track. I am installing my new solar powered gate opener with keypad and remote control units. I am putting loops in the road to detect vehicles. Any approaching vehicles are visible for 400m from my front porch.
My shacks are in the trees and blend in well. I will have to screen my tanks and solar cell installation which are on top of the hill behind my shacks.
I have a good dog who is my ears, after years of guns, explosives, helicopter rides, truck driving and rock ‘n roll music.
And I have already lived a good and sometimes exhilarating life, even if it stops now. It will end in due course but it won’t be because of incompetent human beings.
You’re quite right about seeds, a major failing for me. Got to get through hybrids into long term viable seedstock. There is a seed savers group nearby with good attitude. I go there after I finish my infrastructure. I have long term viable potatoes,chard, tomatoes and berries now but need more variety.
Thanks for advice.