Iran again
The Guardian reports that large numbers of security forces have been deployed in the major public squares of Teheran as enemies of the regime, some of whom also opposed the Shah, declared the days of the current order numbered. They compared the current leaders to the most hated personages in Iranian history.
Plainclothes agents and special police units were reported to be deployed in overwhelming numbers in four of Tehran’s main squares – Enghelab, Haft-e Tir, Valiasr and Ferdowsi – which formed part of the focal point of yesterday’s fierce confrontations. Three city-centre underground stations were also closed as authorities sought to block off gathering points for protesters. …
The arrests reprised the response to June’s post-election protests, when many prominent activists were detained after mass demonstrations against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election. But they served only to emphasise Iran’s devastated political landscape as opposition figures voiced outrage that yesterday’s Ashura ceremony, a day of reverence for the Shia Islam martyr Imam Hossein, became steeped in blood after security forces allegedly opened fire on demonstrators.
The fatalities raised questions about the religious legitimacy of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who stood accused of breaking the basic tenets of Islam by permitting killing during the holy month of Muharram. Another reformist leader, Mehdi Karroubi, implied that Khamenei was worse than the former shah, whose troops never opened fire on Ashura. “What has happened to this religious system that it orders the killing of innocent people during the holy day of Ashura?” Karroubi said in a statement posted on the Rah-e Sabz website.
His comments were echoed by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the Paris-based Iranian film-maker and unofficial spokesman for Mousavi. He compared Khamenei to the 7th century Umayyad caliph Yazid, hated in Shia Islam as the slayer of Imam Hossein, and added: “I’m upset with myself for fighting against the shah. At least when he realised people didn’t want him, he left the country.”
One opponent of the regime expressed the wish to hunt Khameini down like Saddam, with Iranians in the role of US soldiers. “Khamenei … we are going to pull you up from your Saddam-like well and shed light on your face – but not with the flashlight of an American soldier.”
This developed as a reports circulated of the establishment of a rebel military command consisting of dissident officers which would coordinate operations against the existing regime.
NIRU is an apolitical, and self motivated command consisting of soldiers from all armed & security forces (of Iran). NIRU is not an independent organization but merely the name of the coordination command of anti Government servicemen among the Iranian Armed & Security Forces. NIRU does not intend to take control or supervise the Government, and will dissolve without naming its members upon completion of the Operation Azadi.
In the hothouse of a revolutionary underground such announcements will be treated with both hope and suspicion. You never know who you are dealing with unless you know them personally. But if the NIRU actually exists (in more than manifesto form) then it would be a serious setback for the Iranian regime.
In June of 2009 I wrote, shortly after the suppression of the dissenters that the natural development of protest movements was to move from the aboveground to the semi-underground and underground. The post The Day After said:
It’s too early to tell whether street has failed to fatally injure the Iranian regime. But even if Khamenei has beaten back the demonstrators, or bought off Mousavi it is not over. In all likelihood some of the opposition movement will move into a less spontaneous, more clandestine phase: out of the public gaze to be carried on, on both sides, by those with the determination and relentlessness for the job. It’s the world of the cell, cutout, safehouse, the samizdat, the pistol — and alas for some — the bomb. How the resistance will fare, or what its members will evolve into is hard to predict. One thing is probable: that if Mousavi has sold them out, the remnants will require another leadership core.
In that post I argued that over the long run, the Obama administration should be careful to engage with a regime which might be in the process of falling flat on its face. Don’t manacle yourself to a man who is about drown. Perhaps the calculus at the time was that the dictatorship could repress its enemies. Well if so, it’s time to revisit the bet.
I think that the current crisis shows that the semi-underground and underground phase of the Iranian resistance movement is now upon them. The regime might still survive by employing even larger amounts of repression. But from the look of things, even if the current regime manages to beat this wave back down, there will be another. A prolonged civil war tends to make all the parties equally ruthless. Maybe the successor regime will be only marginally better than the current one. But the existing cast of characters will eventually leave the stage. Time and tide will ascertain that. There will be a successor regime. The only question is when. Let’s hope Hillary and President Obama don’t get on the platform just as the train leaves the station.
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Let’s hope Hillary and President Obama don’t get on the platform just as the train leaves the station.
Hillary and Barack (there is a phrase that does not flow off the tongue) are to busy trying to get each other, and the American people, to sit on the tracks in front of any approaching train to even notice if one has left the station. That should beat a metaphor to death at least.
Most punditry on Iran has never gotten past the sophomore level theory that Shia hates Sunni so we can exploit divisions and make friends. We are still crippled by the parade of has beens and never weres who bring a level of fecklessness to the foreign policy process in this administration unequaled except for the domestic policy process in this administration.
This month’s edition of Foreign Policy from the CFR is interesting. Central is Zbig Brezhinsky but off to the side is Abraham Sofaer. This could be an indulgence that indicates the self confidence of the establishment under the new regime or it could be an anchor to windward as the Carter II administration runs into a familiar hole.
The Iranian regime has imported Hezbollah thugs to beat up the people. If the Mullahs fall it will pull the rug out from under Syria, the Lebanese threat to Israel and hurt al-Qeada, who are linked to Tehran. The Norks would feel the blow too. “Axis of Evil” indeed.
Of course when they are falling is when they are the most dangerous.
This potentially could get quite bloody, since the security forces have as much to lose as the government.
W, what do you think the likelihood is of them cutting some sort of “amnesty in exchange for standing aside” deal with the opposition?
Anyone care to speculate on the likelihood of this pro-democracy movement getting off the ground let alone succeeding if we hadn’t fought the alleged war of choice in Iraq? With a mortal and dangerous enemy at the backdoor how different would the calculus be in the squares of Tehran right now?
SW Asia has always been dominated either by Babylon or Persia. Yeah occasionally the Turks or the Egyptians or even the Russians and the Mongols have butted their way in but that land mass really belongs to the civilizations that can control the fertile crescent and the east west trade routes. Baghdad is to SW Asia what Maryland was to Lincoln in the Civil War, the one piece of real estate he had to have -”I would like to have God on my side but I have to have Maryland.”
The Iranians are security clients of the Chinese. My expectation is that they are taking advice from the acknowledged experts on surviving a popular counter-revolution. The next step should be to shift military units and commanders around to ensure two things;
1. Any plots among commanders will be disrupted and social links between them and local groups broken
2. When the Tien an Men time comes that the troops in Tehran are not friendly locals but hostile country boys.
W, what do you think the likelihood is of them cutting some sort of “amnesty in exchange for standing aside” deal with the opposition?
High. Members of the ruling elite don’t like to kill each other. These guys know each other at some level. But the probability declines once things start getting vicious. Comes a point when it’s a fight to the finish. But on the other hand, the Islamic Revolutionary guys are billionaries by now. They’ve got a lot to live for. So in the end, my guess is that they’ll run when it becomes obvious they can’t win.
Oligarchs are supposed to be succeeded by tyrants in Plato’s natural order of things, tyrants by democracies, democracies by oligarchs. Round and round we go. But is the current Iranian regime oligarch or tyrant? Plato never wrote about clergy being in charge.
Remember, Bush41 was counting on internal revolution in Iraq in 1991, and it never happened. He thought the military would toss Hussein, in favor of who knows and who cares. And perhaps that’s the problem, you can’t beat something with nothing.
For which reasons, I still cannot see much hope (and change) for the Iranian revolutionaries.
Can’t they see the system is working perfectly?
Now would be the time!
Support for the opposition in Iran, covert ops to arm them and getting ready for coordinated airstrikes to take out the Mad Mullahs. The Bush Doctrine at work. When Pres Bush asked Condi “Who’s next?” this is the answer.
But instead we have Obama, who has vowed to fight to the last Iranian protestor – and then give up.
I agree RWE. I’ve been daydreaming that I’m a young man on the streets of Tehran or Shiraz, coated in the grime of burning rubber and alight with adrenaline, eyes shining, gripping a tire iron, gazing into a swarm of anonymous FSB-trained IRGC, when – Great columns of JDAM fire and KABLAMO-O-O-O erupts all around the city over IRGC assets, followed by the red white and blue contrails and roar of salvation from high above…
And then suddenly we the young men of Tehran Univeristy will get to truly see who is right and who is wrong.
Yup, I don’t see Obama doing anything that would advance the interests of the US. If anything he would give covert aid to the mullahs.
#5 Wretchard right on !
On a iranian dissident site I read that the Mullahs had to organize these manifestations, because they must pronounce themselves in four days if they will accept to remove 90% of their uranium for foreign nuclear combustible, which was on discussion last september before any further lift of embargos, otherwise the US administration would press for more embargos, and their refined oil seems to be the argument, which is likely to come the next days
They don’t want to accept the deal, and this is why they needed to organize these distractions for the foreigners. Of course, in the meanwhile they benefit of the mess to eliminate or to threat who isn’t on the line
“What has happened to this religious system that it orders the killing of innocent people during the holy day of Ashura?”
I think he means The Religion of Peace TM.
Do you think that at some point perhaps even Muslims will stop being surprised that adherents to their filthy death cult have killed more innocents on one of their innumerable “holy” days?
Islam is Evil.
7. Operation Azadi is in full compliance with military & constitutional law in cases of foreign & unlawfully forced Government, and the duty of all current & former soldiers, who are loyal to their oath to protect Nation and homeland.
Iranian Oath Keepers!
May we profit from their example.
The “National Armed Resistance Forces Command (NIRU”) may not be legit (anyone can set up a website), but if this is for real, the next few daya will be very intersting.
God help the Iranian people.
I can only hope Israel is supplying the protestors in ways to even out the battle to come.
Let’s hope Israel has some way to supply the protestors with things (IEDs?) to even up the battle.
Obama is keeping his distance from the Iranian opposition for one reason, and one reason only: He doesn’t want to be anywhere near them when things finally explode.
Why not? Because when they do, Obama would then effectively be forced to choose between throwing the opposition back under the bus and openly involving the U.S. in the Iranian revolt. Both these options are political poison to Obama and his fellow Dems, for entirely different yet equally obvious reasons. Simply keeping their hands off Iran altogether may be brainless foreign policy, but it’s also a no-brainer in terms of domestic politics.
“NIRU is an apolitical, and self motivated command consisting of soldiers from all armed & security forces (of Iran).”
I’ll bet it is.
This sounds more like an internal power struggle, with the street theater of violence acting as a proxy, and the poor idealists thinking they are fighting for a “better” Iran being the cannon fodder.
After the fall of the Shah, Iran became a Religious tyranny. After the death of Khomeini, it has become an oligarchy, with the powerful and connected getting the spoils of oil wealth and other things related to power and money in Iran. Power flows down from the Supreme Council. My guess is that this has become factionalized, and they are fighting over the future. One faction (Khameini) backs the obnoxious reactionary Ahminejad (sp?), another faction probably sees itself as “progressive” and either wants to restore the religiosity of Khomeini or step back from the nuthouse theocracy.
We need a scorecard. Can’t tell the players without a scorecard.
And yes, none of this would have happened unless we had removed Saddam Hussein. Perhaps the dominoes will yet fall in our favor.
I would rather think the O is to busy trying to subjugate the American beast and does not have the time fight the mullets…..
One way or another it does appear that the
sunni salafist and shia khomeini revolutions of the 1970′s that came on the backs of high oil prices — are ever so slowly coming to a close.
dorf,
fight the mullets
How did Blago get into this?
Marie, although you make a good point by bringing up the approaching deadline, there was no need for the Iranian regime to push things this far in the unrest department. They could have simply ignored the deadline and dared the west to do something, which no one in the west will do. A single slightly encouraging word to Obama and he will fold like a cheap lawn chair. No one in the west is serious about doing anything here.
Although I am also pessimistic about the revolutionaries chances, this is a viral situation which is threatening to get badly out of control. You’ll know that things have really gotten out of hand when car bombs start going off near government buildings.
The Iranians have been pushing radicalism for 30 years now – I strongly suspect that they are about to find out why in the long run that is a very bad idea for any society.
I think the way to press for change in Iran would be to strengthen Iran’s minorities. 43% of iran aint iranian.. Now that Turkey has thrown in with Syria, Iran and other Islamists we no longer have to play nursemaid to Turkey’s occupation of BOTH Cyprus and Kurdistan. A Free Kurdistan that took it’s rightful place at the table of nations would in one swift kick take Turkey, Iran, Iraq & Syrian mitts off of 1/6th of the world’s oil supply. The Kurds are natural allies of the West and maybe now is the time for assistance to them in forming a confederation of Nationalistic Kurds…
Maybe the way to CRUSH Iranian empire building is the taking apart of the false borders that now occupy Iran.
A free Kurdistan would go along way. And if Iran was taken down a few pegs, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Al Qaeda and others would loose a major international support network.
When the regime so blatantly stole the election last year I thought that act would be followed by a “cultural revolution,” a wide ranging purge of the regime elements whose loyalty was suspect. Otherwise the regime would be on very weak footing (though the Obama Administration was making them appear strong).
A “cultural revolution” is an apparent mass movement under the tight control of the regime but styled as a return to the purity of the original revolution. But it actually conceals a wide ranging purge of the regime. It gives cover for weakening and removing the patronage networks of the strong “rivals” that the top leaders want to remove, but cannot take out head on. The security services grab low level people in the targeted organizations and coerce confessions that involve others higher up — and intimidate everyone else. Show trials are staged that implicate the targeted group. Only after you neutralize their support systems do you go after the top individuals. Thousands — if not tens of thousands — of seemingly innocent people get swept up and sent to prisons, work camps and to the executioner.
But it seems Khameini was not in a strong enough position to eliminate his rivals in the regime. And now they may well be in the position to retire him — but whether they can save the regime itself remains to be seen. In any case, they will need a leader that all elements can rally round and suppress the crowds. It will likely get quite bloody.
President Obama should have put heavy sanctions on the regime last summer. Now they will get a new leader and reopen negotiations. We will go back to square one and start the talk and stall all over again. Well, the State Department will be happy.
Seems that O is at least playing lip service to the protesters.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091228/pl_afp/iranunrestusobama
KANEOHE, Hawaii (AFP) – US President Barack Obama on Monday strongly condemned Iran’s crackdown on protesters and called on the Islamic regime to immediately free those “unjustly detained.”
“The United States joins with the international community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens,” Obama said in Hawaii where he is on vacation.
More at the link.
Not sure if this is enough, I wonder how much of the money that GWB was poring in to Iran still made it there under O?
History has shown many times that when Persian mobs are on lynching mode, they are ruthless and unstoppable. No amount of repression can quell mass protests in Iran beyond certain point, as Shakh had a chance to aknowlege. They are worse than Arab Shia, being authentic Arian tribe, and this combination of fanatical ideology of martyrdom and Manichaean world view is lethal. Civil war in this country will be unprecedentedly bloody and cruel.
Iranian leaders are now playing with fire in gunpowder depo. They know it, but can not help themselves. They are too desperate to stop, being in loose-loose situation. As situation escalates, it becames more unpredictable: nobody knows if Army is loyal to clerics, and to what point it can be trusted. Switching loyalities can happen at any level in any political or armed body.
Well, obviously, now is the time for covert direct action from that community in the West, and I do mean the West, not just the USA. I rather doubt that they have the will, courage or leadership for this. Though the major thrust of course would be solving this worst of regional problems, it would be a wonderfully serendipitous way to deal with some issues with China and Russia as well. Here is a case where a strong President and a strong USA would make a world of difference–quite literally. All will no doubt miss this moment.
It may present another opportunity: If Obama actually aids the mullahs in some covert manner, which is a distinct possibility, Patriots in the intel/covert community have an golden opportunity to expose this and thereby do the nation a great service. This would not be that hard to do.
My take is that Obama sides with the Mullahs in his private heart and mind (and I will not say soul); he just feels obliged to mouth his platitudes. Perhaps even the obvious lack of real belief and sentiment shown is a calculated message. Whatever the case, let us note in this that even two years ago the POTUS would have been the defining voice in this conflict, and a few mere speeches might have moved the day. Now the words of the POTUS carry the weight of a “man on the street” interview on the nightly news,and perhaps even less weight for at least the man on the street might be expressing heartfelt sentiment.
Some of the “useful idiots” among the Democrats no doubt do very much care about the plight of the common Iranians and perhaps even have some vague glimmer of insight into what outcomes there mean in terms of the WOT and the geopolitical situation of the world today. Nonetheless, the Democrat leadership, their “secret masters” and the core hard left supporters and acolytes could care less about the whole mess. If they care at all their tought is to diminish freedom and the West anywhere. If the “revolutionaries” in the streets were American hating Marxists, the B52′s would already be in route, but since these people want some semblance of civilized, western society, no doubt with a Muslim twist, but in the western model nonetheless, the American and International Left wish them the same fate that they wish for the Israelis.
It is a sad day for the West that it has come to this: Iran is at the threshold that it is today while the leaders of the West sit around with their hands in their pockets.
If the Shah was only overthrown because Carter’s admin pulled the rug, and Saddam only went down because GWB willed it, while, in the meantime, the Assad clan only go when they die, where is the will of your ME type towards good governance? Hard to spot. Will Iran change the paradigm and go Roumanian or Polish (or even Phillipine, in deference to our host) on the butts of the mullahs?
what is “occupation” @ 22 –
The CIA World Factbook defines the proportion of Iranian Ethnic groups as such: Persian 51%, Azeri 24%, Gilaki and Mazandarani 8%, Kurd 7%, Arab 3%, Lur 2%, Baloch 2%, Turkmen 2%, other 1%
So, allowing 7% of an admitted suppressed, non-Persian, minority to form their own country, out of territory that includes (oil-rich) land claimed by our treaty allies Iraq and Turkey, will help DIFFUSE the tensions in the region?
Better to attempt to arm to “Iranian underground” covertly, and hope they do not resent the grudging support of the Obama administration, when they try to form a government out of the chaos.
hmm has anyone heard of China’s last provocation ? Chineses executed a Brit citizen (drug trafficant) in spite of the attemps of UK diplomacy trying to remove the sentence. Chinese population supports their government, saying that no country can dictate what they must do.
So China is really awake, and we’ll see more of their goals soon
@ 17 E. Nigma
“This sounds more like an internal power struggle, with the street theater of violence acting as a proxy, and the poor idealists thinking they are fighting for a “better” Iran being the cannon fodder.”
I don’t think this is entirely an internal feud. The protests immediately after the elections were not “staged”, and the gents who benefited from those outpourings were pulled along with the protesters, more than leading. What discernable difference was there between Mosavi and the other candidates?
That Rafsanjani joined with them is a matter of calculus on his part recognizing indications of the frustration with the current regime could lead to their downfall have been growing especially since the success of the Iraqi’s to toss off Iranian efforts of subversion.
I maybe all wet on this, but I believe the Islamic revolution lost the faithful long ago. The protester seek change of more than just leadership.
27. Mongoose: “My take is that Obama sides with the Mullahs in his private heart and mind”
I think you are right and that goes for the rest of the hard left in this country.
31. what da ya mean, its too hot?:
I maybe all wet on this, but I believe the Islamic revolution lost the faithful long ago. The protester seek change of more than just leadership.
……..
The last time we visited this there were reports in the papers that a large chunk of the shia tithe by the street merchants in Tehran was going to the shia immman in Iraq.
This is about like Episcopalian churches in the USA joining Nigerian Episcopalian churches so as to get out from under the rule of homosexual bishops.
(ya gotta laugh)
A murderous regime indeed, Any regime that sends children into battle as mine sweeper’s and arms them with plastic keys to paradise is truely evil.
I do hope the Iranian protestor’s know just who and what they are messing with. These people are killers and once the restraints are loosened I expect to really see some blood in the streets.
here is hoping Amadinejad, Khameini and company end up swinging like a slaughtered hogs heels up from the same cranes that executed so many girls and boys.
“‘I’m upset with myself for fighting against the shah. At least when he realised people didn’t want him, he left the country.’”
Once this narrative gets legs, it’s all over for the moo-lahs, and for its related enterprises in Jihad, Inc. The Revolution was built on a lie, i.e., that the Shah was purely anti-democratic and a puppet of the U.S. There is a lost generation in Iran that will not forget the mullahcracy and its looting of the country under the cover of Islam.
Mao ensured the destruction of his ideology by sacrificing generations of Chinese, and the survivors have not forgotten the horror.
Jimmy Carter inoculated many voters to the inanity of internationalist can’t-we-all-get-along liberalism. Obama is going to provide a similar inoculation, if it can take effect by 2010.
The war against the Jihad always had to be a war of steel and ideas. The elites would not entertain the war of ideas, because, after all, they thought, ideas are relative, and defending American exceptionalism would be intellectually dishonest. As usual, liberals are incapable of taking their own side in a fight, and probably they truly don’t know what their own side is.
The Iranians are doing the intellectual work for us.
It is absolutely NOT just an internal feud. That was probably poorly expressed on my part.
But the people who have genuine greivances and hopes for a better Iran are being manipulated by the insider factions, IMHO. I am not an Iranian expert by any means, way, shape or form.
But the violence on the street is the result of manipulations by higher up. When the Shah was driven out in ’78, it was the organizatin of the Tudeh party (Iranian communists) that helped the “students” and the orthodox clerics create the revolution. The Mullahs knew exactly what they were doing, and then turned on the Tudeh and killed, imprisoned or exiled them, before the Tudeh did the same to them.
There is no orderly path to changing a government in such a country where violence is so implicit in the culture, as Sergey has indicated.
The fact that the “leaders” of the street rioting and demonstrations have not already been arrested or executed tells me that the real “leaders” cannot be directly attacked by the government.
“the real “leaders” cannot be directly attacked by the government.”
right they all in the first islaamic revolution commitee. Their apparent quarrels are organized untertainments for their opponants and for us
I don’t know much really about Iran, although Los Angeles has innumerable Iranians of all possible backgrounds, and I have lived near and worked with many. But geopolitically it seems that a lot of the more westernized have long since left Iran for points west, and I suspect the vile and violent have managed to migrate to the mullahs’ side. The Jews have pretty much all been chased from the land for the first time in over 2,000 years, and I gather most of the Bahais have now left as well, and Christians have left or are laying very low. So what is left is more Islamic than previously.
There is a great deal of traffic between Iran and the US, from my Los Angeles perspective I wonder if anyone in Iran goes more than a year between visits from a US emigre … or maybe that was more true a few years ago, perhaps the changes have cut this back now.
But also, Iran is the center of geopolitics, in some ways even more than the old Fertile Crescent of Israel. Russia and China have huge interests in Iran, and can’t be terribly comfortable with each other. Saudi Arabia of course fears and loathes their Shia neighbors. Iraq doesn’t seem to currently threaten Iran, but Iran’s intrests in Iraq continue, enlarged with the US presence there. And Europe loves trading with Iran, and just smirks at US concerns.
So, whichever side Obama might personally favor, I doubt the US has a lot of pull there, unless we want to ship in guns or drop some bombs. The Hillarian idea of working on Iran through proxy Russia is maybe understandable, that is, it rates about a 2 on a scale of 100, but we’re about a 1 without … though my take on things is we’d be better off working through China, only the Chinese give no sign that they want to be used as proxies by anyone, even when interests coincide.
I don’t know what Obama knows about Eyeron, it’s not Pokiston, after all. Obama probably admires Achmadinijad’s rhetorical skills, and Nutjad probably thinks Obama is an uppity joke, not a basis for much of anything. When John F. Kerry visits Iran and as Obama’s proxy bows to whoever he can find in a turban, I can’t see them taking him seriously, either.
In short, we get to watch, and unless we can somehow engage in some direct action, I think watching is all we do.
Of course Obama despises the relvolutionaries. He is a tyrant himself, at least as much as the Constitution will allow him to be. His own prequel, Jimmy Carter, was instrumental in establishing Iran’s current “government.” Is there any question as to what side these people are on? God forbid that historians may claim the uprising was inspired (at least in part) by the situation in Iraq… what Wretchard called, “an alternative Shi’a polity to the theocracy in Iran.”
Obama and his clowns masquerade as agents of freedom– but when the boot is on the throat of the people, the people learn in their death-throes that’s exactly what the Left wants.
Iran’s violent re-birth will be stillborn.
With momentous events swirling all about him, President Obama seems blissfully disconnected, like a swimmer off the beach, aware in some dim fashion of the looming nearby landmass, but not part of it.
THE SWIMMER
Alone on the beach with the sky turning gray
The timeless sea murmuring low
I spotted a swimmer a distance away
He seemed to be someone I know
He called me a greeting and waved me a hand
He grinned in an infectious way
And said “Why are you standing alone on the sand
Come into the water and play”
‘Twas Hussein Obama and now very near
He swam with strong strokes in the surf
He shouted “Now let me make perfectly clear
You’re standing on my favorite turf
I love shifting sands they permit me to be
Anything that my people desire
I always allow my positions be free
I never go wire to wire”
He emerged from the surf with a bound up the beach
The sun was just breaking new day
“A whole new world order is just in my reach”
He grinned a grin toothy and gay
“I’ve won in Iraq and in Afghan I’m fine
In Yemen we’re rounding them up
Our Iran position is coming on line
Good fortune is filling my cup”
Then back in the water now sparkling with sun
The breakers all brilliant with foam
I watched as he swam knowing he was The One
And turned and walked slowly back home
The problem for the mullahs is that they are seen as ordering people killed during the major Shia religious outdoor ceremony.
“Among Shi’ites, however, Ashura is a major festival, the tazia (ta’ziyah). It commemorates the death of Husayn (also spelled Hussein), son of Imam ‘Ali and grandson of Muhammad, on the 10th of Muharram, AH 61 (October 10, 680), in Karbala, Iraq. The event led to the split between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam, and it is of central importance in Shia Islam.
For Shi’a Muslims, rituals and observances on Ashura consist primarily of public expressions of mourning and grief. Some Shi’as express mourning by flagellating themselves on the back with chains, beating their head or ritually cutting themselves. This is intended to connect them with Husayn’s suffering and death as an aid to salvation on the Day of Judgment.
Passion plays commemorating the death of Husayn are also presented on Ashura. In London, around 3,000 Shi’a Muslims gather at the Marble Arch on Ashura for a mourning procession and speeches.”
It is one thing to beat up on the middle class, but killing on Ashura loses them support among the devout. Think going into a Catholic Church on Easter Sunday and dragging people out to be crucified.
“hmm has anyone heard of China’s last provocation ? Chineses executed a Brit citizen (drug trafficant) in spite of the attemps of UK diplomacy trying to remove the sentence. Chinese population supports their government, saying that no country can dictate what they must do.”
Since I live in Texas, the other place that always gets criticized for executions, I gotta say I sympathize with the Chinese here. He went into their country, submitted himself to their law, so it looks to me like he deserved what he got. Of course the pacifist Brits who can’t even bring themselves to control their own criminals are boo-hooing about it, but they’ll never actually do anything so China has nothing to worry about. That’s the problem of getting a reputation for cowardice among the great and the small, nobody cares about your whinging anymore.
I remember when Texas was getting criticized for executing a Mexican national a couple years ago – hey, the guy was a heinous murderer, he had been convicted by a jury after a full trial, he’d exhausted his appeals. Yet there was all this international boo-hooing about how mean Texas was to get rid of him. You remember what happened? Texas did it anyway, and even though the international do-gooders were horrified, I can copy a quote from what you wrote and say “Texas voters supported their government, saying that no country can dictate what they must do.”
Europeans could use a little less wooly-headed attitude towards crime. China deserves thanks for driving that point home.
I can’t find the exact quote for all the Bushitler stuff in Google but it went something like this;
Press -”Mr Bush, you are allowing a man from Canada to be executed against Canada’s protests. What kind of message is that going to send?”
I think the message here is that if you come to Texas and you murder, this is what will happen to you.” GW Bush
This immediately impressed me.
wws:
but this Brit wasn’t a murderer !
Do you execute drug trafficants in Texas ?
The Europeans have gone and enfaggotted themselves.
“And Europe loves trading with Iran”
I heard that the first attempt by Carter and his Guru to remove Shah wasn’t for mere democratical agenda, the Shah had nationalised the anglo-american oil companies and he wanted to become part of the OPEC cartel, in the meanwhile to make an alliance with Saddam.
Now, are you sure that America’s policy still doesn’t care of the same agendas, and that would also open the oil’s routes to central Asia oil too. But these bloody Mullah are so stubborn, they refuse all the alliances behind the curtains (even during Bush era )
At least it’s what think the iranian dissidents
MC, I’m with WWS on this one. Given the British role in the Opium Wars, I don’t blame the Chinese one bit. They are frankly the most principled major government in the world today; that’s how sad the state of western governments are now.
steeple, your argument is definitly the good argument
#42 wws and # 47 Steeple
Absolutely!
With the caveat that the Brit was in fact dealing drugs; anyone with knowledge of the Chinese history with the West knows that the Brit history of importing opium to China, and then declaring war when China confiscated their stocks in China and destroyed it, guarantees that there will be no special mercy for Western [and especially British] drug dealers. One of the big drivers of Chinese policy since the 1940′s has been regaining sovereignty over China from Europeans and Americans after a century of foreign occupation and insults. If Britain was capable of doing anything about it other than snivel; any action would meet with the unified resistance of patriotic Chinese. If you yank certain chains, you have to expect a massive reaction.
I am an American of Chinese ancestry, and I understand that in my bones. One would assume that the “ultra-sophisticated” and “nuanced” Europeans would pick up on it.
If the Brit was set up; well, he is just scrod. And it would behoove the Brits [or actually the EU, since they are running Foreign Policy now] to figure out what message the Chinese government is trying to send. And given the relative strengths, to do some world class grovelling.
Subotai Bahadur
MC @ 46: There is no shortage of nutball theories floating around the middle east, the blogsphere, and the world, but come on. Anyway, what if they were all true, it would still be the case that European companies and governments are happy to trade with Iran when the US is not – hey, even today US companies like GE are apparently trading with Iran, too, when they can get away with it. But I’m not throwing stones, I’m just saying, trade makes for political motivations and difficulties of all sorts. Frankly, I think commercial boycotts and the like are stupid and ineffectual, all they do is divert money to smugglers and criminals, they seldom have any real effects. If you want to make war, drop bombs, sez I.
I am reminded of the Beggar’s March from the Three Penny Opera.
This may have started as a quarrel among rival factions of the Iranian government, but the very momentum of the revolution itself is transforming Iran. It is unlikely that anybody knows what Iran is getting transformed into, least of all Iranians themselves. Call it “The Fog of War”.
Josh
for sure, Dubai, as the nearest place from Iran, and the paradise for all traffics, is the right washing machine for bank notes for companies of whatever nationality
“but this Brit wasn’t a murderer ! Do you execute drug trafficants in Texas ?”
Marie, that’s a foolish distinction, and I think you realize it.
Texas (and US) Law applies in Texas.
French Law applies in France.
British Law applies in Great Britain.
Chinese Law applies in China.
Foreigners never have the right to carry their own preferred sets of laws around with them on their backs – they submit themselves to the jurisdictions they are entering when they cross that border voluntarily. Anybody who doesn’t have the respect or sense to learn a host countries law has got no business going there. And I apply that to myself – there are a large number of countries in the world that I would never dream of setting foot in because of their bizarre and unpredictable legal systems.
As the saying goes, fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
regarding the claim that “the Shah had nationalised the anglo-american oil companies and he wanted to become part of the OPEC cartel…”
ummm…. Iran was one of the founding members of OPEC in 1960…
and the National Iranian Oil Company was created from nationalized anglo-american assets in 1951, long before the Shah.
The Chinese have long memories and they remember what the forced sale of opium did to their country. Both the humiliation and the lives ruined is remembered. They’ll kill their own for dealing drugs, so why does anyone think they’ll have mercy on some foreign devil.
Ms. Claude,
I think you missed the point. It is not Canada’s law and corresponding consequences that matter but Texas’, likewise it is not Britain or Texas’ law that matters in China but China’s. If China executes drug traffickers and this Brit was trafficking drugs in China’s sovereign jurisdiction than this Brit is subject to execution.
wws, I understand, I’m not goin to Texas soon
It sounds us a bit barbaric that executions are still on, even for “benin” facts, but I would still advocate it for children murderers, for terrorists, for serial killers…
“but this Brit wasn’t a murderer !”
Tell that to the friends and family of, oh lets just try the “L”s –
Alan Ladd
Arcadia Lake
Barbara La Marr
Karen Lancaume
Carole Landis
Heath Ledger
Bruce Lee
Gerald Levert
Frank X. Leyendecker
Debbie Linden
Eugene Lipscomb
Mike Lockwood
Trinity Loren
Bela Lugosi
Zoe Tamerlis Lund
Donyale Luna
Frankie Lymon
Aaron Lynch
Phil Lynott
Too many to list.
phil g I understand that China has its own laws, but when sometimes diplomacy is effective for a specific case, it appears in this case, that China has no more the intention to listen to external complaints, and this is the message it sent !
Annoy mouse, who are these persons, victim of th Brit ?
The drug dealer is a scum, often tied to a mafia, that has no regret to kill an adversary, or a recalcitrent bad payor, but I doubt that this english man belonged to a mafia, rather he was a random traveller, and dealing a bit of sh*t help might have helped him to pay his trip. Well, I am imagining so.
Anyway, at 53 years old he mustn’t have ignored China laws.
They are just the tip of the iceberg. People generally known, like Brittany Murphy, Ana Nicole Smith, Michael Jackson, Heath Ledger. All people who probably died of a drug overdose. Don’t get me wrong. I think everyone should have the right to kill themselves and it is clear that drugs kill, ie, drug dealers kill too, and here in Southern California we have the drug cartels killing rampantly if not randomly. Back in the seventies our local hash connection made his last trip to Pakistan. He knew if he got caught he would be summarily executed. He made good money until he was caught too. That is why the potential return on investment is so high. I for one have never had any interest to travel to Pakistan and their deterence has worked for me. If you can catch only 1 out of every 10 smugglers then it makes sense to execute the few who you do catch. That said, I have become liberterian in my beleiefs and feel strongly that drugs should be legalized. Anybody stupid enough to take them might be stupid enough to jump off of a building and you can not make tall buildings illegal.
“The Chinese have long memories and they remember what the forced sale of opium did to their country.”
To continue with this slightly off-topic discussion — maybe the Chinese do not have long-enough memories.
British actions in their two Opium Wars were of course despicable. Still, it is worth remembering what made Victorian Europeans behave in this horrible way — albeit typical of Europe’s colonialist history.
The underlying problem was a balance-of-trade issue. Britain purchased Chinese tea, Chinese silk. The Chinese would accept only silver in exchange, and Britain was running out of silver. Hence the decision by England’s leaders to create a market in China for opium (grown by exploited Indian labor in British-occupied India), thereby balancing the trade. China’s rulers objected. The British opened the Chinese market by force of arms.
There are many potential moral lessons in this little bit of history, beyond the obvious moral failings of Europeans. One might be that it is not a good idea for China to insist on running a balance-of-trade surplus, at least not to the point where it risks damaging China’s trading partners. It would be good if Chinese memories were long enough to encompass that lesson too.
The son of the Chinese Emperor died of a drug overdose. Sometimes the niceties of rational calculation are beside the point.
If you look at the drug related chaos which is spilling over into Texas cities such as Laredo and El Paso, I think Texas would do very well to start executing drug traffickers. People who just look at stats will see Texas has a high crime rate; what you won’t see unless you’re here is a very safe society except when you start to get close to the Rio Grande, where Mexico appears to be fighting a losing civil war with the Narcotraficante gangs, especially the Zetas. (Okay, and also the large mexican barrios in the major cities) That war is now spreading across the border, and the bodies are starting to pile up on both sides.
Texas is in a position where it *has* to take a very tough stance on crime; the majority english speaking population is relatively stable and peaceful, but at least part of the spanish speaking population is engaged in ultra-violent guerilla warfare against each other. If it isn’t dealt with harshly, it will only get worse and worse. And yes, the level of violence on display in this new wave of gangsters is horrific. They consider themselves soldiers with a license to kill anyone – man, woman, or child – who gets in their way.
90% of the worlds heroin comes from Afghanistan. Most of it from Helmand. If stopping drugs at their source is important, so is Afghanistan and so is Helmand.
Just saying.
Not only Chinese have a long memories: every people with a sense of history and ethnic pride has them. This is just as impossible for Armenians to forget genocide of 1915, as for a Chinese people to forget rape of Nankin by Japanese military or for Jews to forget Holocost. This Shia-Sunni divide lasts almost 1400 years, and nobody is going to forget it.
That said, I have become liberterian in my beleiefs and feel strongly that drugs should be legalized.
Unfortunately, the implied assumption here is that legalizing drugs would eliminate the illegal drug market. I don’t mean that as a ‘checkmate’ statement on the notion of legalization, but to point out the unintended consequences of ‘legalization.’
If you look at the drug related chaos which is spilling over into Texas cities such as Laredo and El Paso
Laredo maybe, but not El Paso. Somehow, El Paso has largely escaped the depredations in poor Juarez. At most, El Paso is a conduit for drug markets elsewhere in the U.S., but not a market itself; therein probably lies the reason for El Paso being relatively unscathed.
We waste billions of dollars a year on the “war on drugs”. It is a total sham. Legalizing drugs would deflate the market. The largest cash crop in California is marijuana. It has corrupted bankers, politicians and law enforcement alike. Then look at Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela, The Golden triangle, Afghanistan, et al. The Taliban is the major benefactor of anti-drug laws. Teach your children not to murder, rape, and to take drugs and then trust them the best you can.
The war on drugs is a protection racket for organized crime, nothing more or nothing less.
Seems a bit ot to the current conversation but..
Published Document States Khamenei Is Planning to Escape to Russia
Thanks Charles. I was beginning to forget what the topic was. Interesting but it sounds like psyops from the opposition. I don’t think the Supreme Leader would have to send such a letter and if he did, he’d already be in deep doo doo.
I can’t believe that Khameinei would run away, he is the conservative pillar of Iran, and old enough to be dead, so I bet that nothing frightens him, but may be his family would prefer to be safe.
Anyway the “Mullahs mala” has made enough money to go wherever they want. Hope they will not choose western countries
#61 Kinuachdrach:
That was one of the best short expositions of the overall situation behind the Opium Wars that I have seen since college. I would just take issue with one point.
One might be that it is not a good idea for China to insist on running a balance-of-trade surplus, at least not to the point where it risks damaging China’s trading partners.
It was less a matter in those days of insisting on a trade surplus; but more a matter of the British literally not having anything legal to trade that the Chinese [particularly the Chinese government, since my ancestors never figured out the limited liability corporation (which is the point where China was surpassed by the West) so the government has to approve all legal trade] wanted. Lord MacCartney’s 1793 Mission to China was a fiasco on several levels.
People might [OK, not many] remember the battle over the k’tou ['kow-tow'in English]; and that was symptomatic of a total ignorance of where the Brits were going. MacCartney was demanding status as Ambassador Plenipotentiary, for which there was no equivalent concept in Chinese. He had no concept of Chinese court etiquette, and tried to forcefully substitute the European version. In doing so, he micturated in the congee bowl of the court of Chien Lung, one of the strongest Emperors of the Ch’ing Dynasty. Combine it with an arrogance impressive even by the standards of British nobility.
But the long term failure was the part of his mission concerning trade. He brought as gifts various mechanical toys, clocks, etc. which he offered as examples of what they could trade with China. China was not interested in literally anything he brought, and he had infuriated them already anyway. He, perhaps, would have been better served if he had questioned, and listened to those few Europeans with some experience in China. But most of those were Catholic missionaries, who were not acceptable as advisors.
In the absence of trade goods, trade had to default to a cash basis, and since it was the English who were insisting on buying, the currency offered had to meet Chinese standards. Roughly, Chinese currency consisted of bronze minted “cash” coins, 1000 of which = 1 Tael of ingot silver of a declared purity. Chinese currency just was worth more than English. The Chinese did not use gold as currency, so that even further limited the Brits’ financial options. For the record, if you look at American numismatics, you will find something called a ‘China Trade Dollar’. The American silver dollar did not have enough silver content either to be considered money by Chinese standards, so we minted a special issue with more silver for the China trade.
So in that case, I do not think it was a matter of deliberate hostile mercantilist policy on China’s part. Simply an imbalance of trade aggravated by the lack of convertability of Brit paper and gold currency. The situation was unstable, and if it had not been Commissioner Lin Tse-hsü attempting to control the Opium trade, it would have been something else. War would have occurred, and the result would have been the same because of the military disparity of the two powers.
Mind you, now Chinese policy is based on deliberately integrating economics as a weapon and an instrument of national policy, so your warning still has bite.
Subotai Bahadur
I think it was in his book “Eat the Rich” that P.J. O’Rourke spoke about the attitude that the Hong Kong Chinese had toward the Brits during the handover of Hong Kong. P.J. asked why did the Chinese hate the Brits so badly, he had recently been to Vietnam and despite the bitter war, people were quite friendly. The Hong Kong resident said, “All you did was try to kill them, the British snubbed us!”
The upside is that the Chinese also remember those that aided them. Check out the NAZI saint of Nanking sometime. Also an old Flying Tiger’s vist and flight over the Great Wall. The religious university that I went to still had ties with the main land due to missionary connections. We had a fair number of mainland students.
Of course the leadership is still a bunch of raging assholes. As Derbyshire said, I don’t dislike them for what the try to do to us but what they do their own people.
53 WWS
“Foreigners never have the right to carry their own preferred sets of laws around with them on their backs – they submit themselves to the jurisdictions they are entering when they cross that border voluntarily.”
Yea, well Interpol doesn’t have to worry about American jurisdiction anymore since Obama put out an Executive Order giving them total immunity and other powers above and beyond our own Justice Dept.
Sorry excuse for a President. I wonder how that move fits into his plan for America.
You can be sure that he is up to no good.
Papa Ray
Subotai #72: “It was less a matter in those days of insisting on a trade surplus; but more a matter of the British literally not having anything legal to trade that the Chinese … wanted.”
Thanks for the background, Subotai. The Opium Wars probably should be remembered more than they are. They shaped our world in some rather far-reaching ways.
Since we are well off topic now, let me add: History rhymes rather than repeats, as someone once said. This time around, there is something the West has that China is willing to trade for — technology. China is more interested in having a factory to build Airbuses than in having an Airbus. And now China has that Airbus factory — and lots more besides. It is not too much of an extrapolation to guess where that process will lead.
E Nigma @ 36
“The fact that the “leaders” of the street rioting and demonstrations have not already been arrested or executed tells me that the real “leaders” cannot be directly attacked by the government.
That is sadly, no longer the case.
I would submit that the mullah’s handling of the conflict is more along the lines of of Syrian experience than that of the Chinese. Baby Assad’s boys are well practiced at the sort of intimidation necessary to subjugate the Syrian peoples. But just as in Lebanon, they have their limitations, too.
ah China is advancing its pawns
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&50FD302CE0390E6BC225769C0021723E
about the execution
“To the Chinese leadership, this was about a demonstration of power rather than rule of law,”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,669573,00.html
Escaping to Russia eh? Hahahahaha – perhaps now people will be forced to acknowledge who the masters of the islamic revolution are?
Hahahaha. Probably not. There is so much expertise devoted to avoid recognizing the not-quite-obvious.
Ooo – and China building a naval base at Aden? That’s in Yemen no? Yemen – the only formally Communist Arab country, in which Soviet and Chinese Communism “competed” for influence for several decades…. Hm… seems like Yemen’s been in the news lately, I think….
They’re coming to take me away, haha, they’re coming to take me away!
Can anyone get the text of Obama’s recent executive order regarding Interpol’s activities within the United States? It has been described as freeing Interpol to act without any restraint from U.S. domestic law.
This sounds on the face of it to be far beyond anything that a U.S. President can lawfully order, and should be immediately challenged. Consider what this HAS to mean:
Interpol would not be required to do ANY of the things that we have come to take for granted in police arrests, questioning, and detention of suspects:
* No “Mirandizing” suspects; i.e., no requirement to advise an arrested citizen that they have the right to remain silent, no obligation to give information which may be used against them in a court of law, et cetera. Simply, NO fifth amendment rights.
* No requirement that a suspect have an attorney present during interrogation
* No Habeas Corpus – that is, No requirement that a suspect be charged with a specific crime or released within a specified period
* No guarantee against warrantless and unreasonable searches and seizures
* No guarantee against confiscation of property without any “due process”
* No guarantee of court-appointed attorney for indigents
* No protection of suspects from interrogation techniques that violate U.S. national or local laws
* No police/community review boards would have power to examine records, reprimand or in any way punish misbehavior by Interpol agents. Essentially, there would be no behavior of an Interpol Agent that would be disallowed, because U.S. law would not apply. Period.
* No possibility of citizens’ redress of grievances in U.S. federal or local courts for false arrest, police brutality, et cetera
* No possibility of any private U.S. advocacy organization pursuing relief under U.S. courts to review or reverse a citizen’s arrest, detention, interrogation, conviction, imprisonment
These are precisely the rights that Attorney General Eric Holder is guaranteeing to the terrorists, but they will be DENIED to ordinary U.S. citizens, whenever Interpol has it in mind to go after them on U.S. soil.
This also gives Obama the ability to unofficially steer Interpol to arrest and detain ANY UNITED STATES CITIZEN he regards as troublesome. “I wash my hands of this…”
Imagine having Obumble’s crowd of czars, Pelosi, Reid, Durban, Barney Franks, Murtha, and all the rest giving their lists of bothersome U.S. citizens to our supreme leader to be passed along to Interpol.
Folks, we are being F**KED.
Royally.
Mad Fiddler,
Buraq has crossed the Rubicon with this.
Just imagine if the International Court at the Hague indicts Bush,
Cheney and Rumsfeld on war crimes charges, and orders Interpol to come get them. If I understand this new Presidential order correctly ( and if it survives court challenges), Interpol could with total immunity come to America and snatch legally a former President and put him on trial on some trumped up charge.
Our Legal system would effectively become subservient to international law and international tribunals, without our consent.
This new Interpol order is the surrendering of our sovereignty and high treason by this current President.