Lunatics
Michael Totten writes a half obituary, half-paean to Dubai, that Secret Dubai termed the “‘strict Muslim emirate’ [that] is akin to describing Amsterdam as a ‘puritanical Christian state’”. It’s a glittering city with a cosmopolitan and unreal air.
“People in the region who visit Dubai,” he writes, “return home wondering why their governments can’t issue passports in a day or provide clean mosques and schools, better airports, airlines and roads, and above all better government.”
He’s right. Most Beirutis I know look down on Dubai as artificial and gimmicky, but just about everyone else in the region who isn’t a radical Islamist thinks it’s amazing.
It’s different geopolitically, too. The government is more sincerely pro-American than the nominally pro-American governments of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Michael Yon put it this way when he visited in 2006 on his way to Iraq: “Our friends in the UAE want the Coalition efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan to succeed, and they are vocal about it. While much of the west, including many of our oldest allies, postures on about how the war on terror is a horrible mistake, the sentiment in the UAE is that it would be a horrible mistake not to face the facts about our common enemy, an enemy that might be just as happy to destroy the UAE as America.”
Maybe it was unreal. The main problem with Dubai is that it may be about to go bust. As late as November 27, the Times Online reported that investors were consoling themselves with the idea that Abu Dhabi, one of Dubai’s guarantors, was going to ride to the rescue. But now the New York Times reports that it ain’t gonna happen:
The Dubai crisis began last week, when the emirate said Dubai World would not be able to make on-time payments for some of its $59 billion in debt. The company invested in lavish real estate projects, including artificial islands in the shape of a palm tree and a globe, and spent heavily to acquire stakes in glittering properties like Barneys in New York and the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas….
Last week, investors fled the stocks of banks with outstanding loans to the tiny emirate and its investment arm, Dubai World. Now, analysts will be watching to see whether investors desert other highly indebted companies.
While Dubai is not big enough to set off financial repercussions outside the Middle East, the main fear is that investors could flee risky markets all at once in search of safer havens for their money.
The NYT wrote in horror that unlike the US government, which intervened following the failure of Lehman Brothers, the government of Abu Dhabi is not planning to intervene. The investors are going to be left to fend for themselves.
Indeed, the director general of Dubai’s Department of Finance told state-run Dubai TV that the emirate’s government has not guaranteed Dubai World’s debt, and that creditors must share in the pain that comes with any reorganization.
“The company received financing based on its project schedule, not a government guarantee,” the director general, Abdulrahman Al Saleh, said in response to whether the government was backing the debt. “The lenders should be part of the responsibility.”
The extent to which the federation and its wealthiest member-state, Abu Dhabi, which has vast oil reserves, appear to guarantee Dubai’s debts could affect how investors view many other companies previously believed to have the implicit backing of their governments.
“There are plenty of people around in world capitals who are tired of bailouts,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
But maybe not for the best of reasons. The underlying motivation for letting the devil take the hindmost is that is the way the world operates there. Zerohedge says that while Abu Dhabi “is the Anti-Fed/Anti-Treasury that some Americans have been lusting for” it comes at the price of “information assymetries” in which foreign investors essentially never know what’s really up. “Particularly in the Middle East that’s usually a hint that foreign investors are going to get their lunch money lifted, find themselves framed for the crime by local authorities when they complain, imprisoned by the uncle-of-the-thief (who also happens to be a judge) immediately before being repeatedly raped while in custody, caned and then deported “accidentally” to Azerbaijan.”
The Emirates Economist calls this “information assymetry” the ‘never mind syndrome’, a phenomenon in which a long established and well-trodden policy regime can suddenly vanish into thin air as if someone said, ‘never mind’. “I’ve not quite figured out the dynamics, but it’s pretty common in the UAE for one body to come with a new decision or rule, and then for a sheik to announce at the last moment that no we won’t be doing that.”
The close cousin of ‘never mind’ appears to be now-you-see-now-you-don’t. The Wall Street Journal described how the UAE removed the Sunday London Times from the local newstands because it “featured a double-page spread graphic illustrating Dubai’s ruler Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum sinking in a sea of debt”. It was a senseless act in an era when many if not most people get their news over the Internet. But simply because something is senseless doesn’t mean its not going to happen.
The Times of India writes that a “a lot of people are pretty freaked out”. That includes some people who think Dubai is in trouble because it has succeeded.
“A lot of people are pretty freaked out,” said one American businessman with long experience in the region, who asked not to be named for fear of repercussions. “They’re all watching CNN and going: ‘Is Dubai going to default?”’ Many in Dubai have a shockingly different perspective. “Dubai is a victim of media distortion,” wrote one reader to a Web forum of one of the Emirates’ most popular newspapers. “All the Western countries have ganged up on Dubai. Why? Because it has succeeded.” Another reader wrote, “This is all because of jealousy from the Western world.”
But before anyone dismisses the events in Dubai as the result of the overheated fantasy of desert dreamers, it’s probably useful to ask how different in principle it is from the the subprime crisis in the US and America’s headlong gallop into Obamacare and Cap N’ Trade. That makes sense too, doesn’t it; and if Abu Dhabi has Dubai Washington can have Copenhagen. Who knows but that the Arabs may get the better deal? At the end of the day Dubai may have beautiful buildings occupied by goat herders, but the result of Western fantasy may be millions of people living in self-imposed darkness lit only by the light of Triana and walking around barefoot, holding on to little pieces of paper in the expectation that they’ll someday be worth something.
Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) (formerly known as Triana) is a NASA satellite proposed in 1998 by then-Vice President Al Gore for the purpose of earth observation. It is intended to be positioned at the Earth’s L1 Lagrangian point, at a distance of 1.5 gigameters. At this location it will have a continuous view of the Sun-lit side of the Earth.
The satellite’s original purpose was to provide a near-continuous view of the entire Earth and make that live image available via the Internet. Gore hoped not only to advance science with these images, but also to raise awareness of the Earth itself, updating the influential The Blue Marble photograph taken by Apollo 17.
We live in strange times. Yahoo reports that a Japanese gamer liked his virtual girlfriend so much he married her for real “in what must have been the weirdest ceremony in the history of ceremonies. We can only assume that Ms. Pac-Man was the maid of honor.”
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I thought you might have meant this Triana:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jossoriom/3823048517/
I find mine more consoling, and much fairer to look upon.
Booms and busts used to occur, but it took government intervention to turn busts into the long disasters they are now.
“Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” by Charles Mackay, nothing much has seemed to change since this was written. Brokerage firms used to make it required reading for new stock brokers.
Dubai just might recover before the rest of the world.
Ahem Wretchard. Whiskey-bait.
The whole thing with the “herbivore” guys in Japan and the “2 D” romance-minded guys (there is a Japanese term which escapes me) is how a goodly portion of Japanese males have just given up.
Given up on a career. Given up on ever finding a girlfriend in status-obsessed Japan. Given up on competing with the few Alphas in Japan who basically have default harems.
That sort of thing, if widened enough, generally creates a lot of guys eager for almost anything. I’m sure it has escaped no one that the jihadis are not exactly overwhelmed with women in their lives. So suicide and virgins (women not shared with other men) looks good.
Muslim polygamy means lots of Muslim male losers, and thus Jihad and terrorism. That’s the cost of Polygamy.
Japanese reform and a lot of guys being priced out of the marriage and relationship market might have a short-term “2 D romance” but long term, it will cause social problems. As the woman shortage in China and India guarantees War, and a widespread one. [Unless Obama's magic pixie dust and rainbows and unicorns flying out of his behind will create "hope and change" everywhere in the globe.]
Dubai’s fantasy economy as a trading center will end up costing the entire UAE and Gulf most Western Investment, permanently. That’s the cost of screwing over Western investors now.
Obama’s fantasy of ObamaCare and Cap and Trade means a White backlash, that will be exceedingly ugly and powerful.
Look at the Swiss. Finally fed up, they simply banned minarets. The Swiss authorities tamper with that result at their peril, because then the people will simply pass stronger measures or revolt. No one wants to be a discriminated minority in their own country (which is what Obama has on tap for the White Middle Class Majority).
The Financial Times btw has the best coverage of Dubai. Far better than the WSJ.
Wretchard, one of the clearest sentences you have penned is this one:
“But simply because something is senseless doesn’t mean its not going to happen.”
That sentence alone explains much, if not most, of what is happening in the world today.
Investors happily took the plunge
Into the Dubai World
Absorbing losses like a sponge
They now cry “goo-bye World”
Expecting governmental help
Like Obie gave his friends
With hotels sinking in the kelp
They surfaced with the bends
So now they’re holding both the sack
And mounting debt to pay
And all without a Freddie Mac
Or helpful Fannie Mae
Whiskey,
We’ve gone out of our way to punish the older style of alpha male. They want to put Tiger Wood’s wife in jail for abusing her husband. Now he may feel, for obsolete reasons of guilt, gallantry or a mistaken sense of manliness, that a husband should never to go the police for getting the crockery thrown at him by his wife. Time was that came with the turf and a real man not only forebore from physical violence, but dodged the odd ashtray which came his way, back when there were ashtrays.
Nowadays it seems that to be an alpha male you have to be the wrong sort. The guy with the sunglasses and gold chains or maybe the funny headgear and the meatcleaver. The world seems to understand and forgive that kind of guy and hate the man who wants to keep his wife out of jail.
Well ok. But in the end we get the kind of world we want, even when we don’t really want it. They found a game addict in a Chinese Internet cafe dead one day. Somebody got around to noticing him probably because he was too quiet. Let’s hope he found his game princess heroine to love him. All the lonely people, where do they all come from?
This article may be of interest.
http://majorityrights.com/index.php/weblog/comments/what_do_i_admire_about_saudi_arabia_the_united_arab_emirates_and_oman/
Whiskey #3: “Look at the Swiss. Finally fed up, they simply banned minarets.”
Not sure this is all that hopeful of a sign. So they banned minarets – they didn’t ban the building of new mosques, did they? They’ll still have new mosques, just without minarets? Seems like a case of sweeping it under the rug, or out of sight out of mind. Maybe the Swiss voters were just protecting the architecture.
Finally, some one or thing or institution who has the right idea/sense. They will come out of this okay if they just hold on.
whiskey – The recession/depression in the US at least should be called a Mancession. Most of the lost jobs are from white, middle-class male oriented areas. This Globalism trend has wiped out manufacturing in this country in serious and far reaching ways. If we found ourselves in a WWII type situation where we had to tool-up a manufacturing base from the ground up, we would be screwed. The Greenies have killed so many things that they should be considered the modern equivalent of witches and we should have an Inquisition. Pitch forks, stakes, kindling, tar and feathers needed, some assembly required.
[Edit - I nominate wretchard as the Inquisitor!]
Hello BC, and good evening, er, morning. I have noticed when I’m out and about the number of beta males in my general area. I’m the loner type who never got married and have no girlfriend and in so being I’ve had plenty of opportunity to simply sit and observe. What I’ve observed, whether at the convienent store or the watering hole ( when I used to water ) is most women of the younger generation always pay the bill. The young males stand behind them with their MTV gear, chain wallet, hat skewed to one side, and hands in pockets. I once saw, to my amazement, a young man being led around by a dog chain by a young female. I wanted to cross the street and beat them both. I guess i don’t really have a point with this post but just wanted to share my thoughts and experiences.
Whiskey, the term is soshoku danshi (草食男子) “herbivorous males”. My nephew on my wife’s side may be one of them. I suppose he’ll get married eventually, though. He’s still in his early twenties. Japanese males tend to be children until they enter the working world.
Just another Middle East mirage of convenience.
(Sort of like Obama’s foreign policy—will the highly-touted Cairo speech end up being just another tale of 1001 nights, if not nearly as entertaining?)
Alas, there are hugely serious repercussions.
Not so fast, Karen!
Rightwing set to tighten grip on Muslim customs
The rightwing Swiss People’s Party is planning further steps against the spread of Islam in Switzerland following voters’ approval of a ban on new minarets.
High on the agenda are tighter legal measures against forced marriages and genital mutilation of women, as well as a ban on wearing the burka in public and special dispensation from swimming lessons for Muslim pupils. …»
Swiss minaret ban sends ripples worldwide
Swiss voters’ decision to ban the construction of minarets has drawn worldwide criticism, with the United Nations and Council of Europe expressing outright concern. … »
Oh dear,
to think that Ozymandias World could founder for the want of a cold beer, nice tits, and a quickie on the beach.
Never in the history of human endeavour has so much been lost to so little.
As I wrote years ago on BC, Islam will be defeated by letting (the absence of) sex, drugs, and rock and roll do their magic.
It’s not a Western conspiracy, it’s Western customers not liking the product.
ADE
Mancession, or maybe White Mancession, that’s pretty good.
And Ashen, you’re right, the female controls the purse strings courtesy of the government, her husband. Checks for welfare, the kid’s being on Ritalin ($300 to $450/month each), food stamps, housing subsidy, and on and on. Not to mention the drugs for herself!
In the pharmacy I even have to sign papers so they can get re-imbursed for their mileage to and from the doc, pharmacy, and hospital! Of course the massive expenses for meds are free thank to Medicaid and increasingly, for the young adults, Disability.
The other day, a young lady, 16y/o, on Social Security Disability (!!), getting multiple scripts for Oxycontin (80mg, 60mg, and 40mg), Xanax, Soma, all courtesy of you, the TAXPAYER! And her boyfriend, exactly like Ashen describes, complete with multiple tatoos and body piercings.
It’s already a lost cause, stick a fork in it, the USA is done!
Mosques in Europe and America are often, maybe usually, funded by Saudi Arabia and occasionally Iran. That money is often filtered through banks in the UAE, including in Dubai. Dubai does not pump oil, they pump other people’s money. The logical legal (there’s an oxymoron) way to control subversion by paid agents of the Wahabist regime is through a policy of Reciprocity. Sounds poetic, don’t it? Non-Islamic activities are subject to restriction in a deliberate policy of public humiliation in Islamic countries. Agents of an Islamic regime should be held to the same standards outside of their country that they impose on others domestically. To be truly equal would mean banning the construction of mosques until churches and synagogues are allowed in KSA. Jews are prohibited from setting foot in KSA, maybe the Saudis are afraid they’ll want Yathrib (Medina) back. However let us be more moderate then the Wahabists at the first iteration and only hold them to the standard that the Pact of Omar imposes on dhimmis.
The point about minarets is that they are an explicitly triumphalist device. Since they are designed to humiliate non-Muslims and promote a political party on behalf of a totalitarian foreign regime they should be banned. If the Iranians ever enforce the humiliation and identification of non-Muslims by forcing them to mark their clothes with nazi style badges then any agent of the Iranian government, including anyone who takes their money to act as a propagandist, should be similarly identified.
One result of the Dubai financial crisis is that the supply of money available for Islamic indoctrination and subversion will decline. Islam was an intellectually bankrupt system confined to impoverished backwaters before the infusion of Energy trillions following the discovery of oil in Bahrain in 1932. The Soviet Union was a Third World country, with ICBMs. The Islamic Ummah (as a political project) is an uncreative and oppressive intellectual, economic and moral desert, with vast wealth to prop up its fantasies. If the West had not panicked with the US electing Obama then pro-growth and energy diversification policies would have freed the world from the Islamist yoke. On the one hand Obama’s policies, environmental restrictions on nuclear energy and oil drilling and coal production, are subsidies that empower the Russians, Arabs and Venezuelans. His other policies that cripple and shrink the economy, Health Care and Cap and Trade taxes, reduce competition by the West for energy supplies coveted by China. However the same economic decline by the West destroys the sources of the wealth that the energy suppliers feed off of and destabilizes China.
#3 Whiskey California belies the idea that you can’t screw the middle class indefinitely. People and businesses leave when they are economically pressed but most just shrug it off.
One thing is for sure — the locals in the UAE don’t lose. They will change the rules in mid-game if that is what it takes.
One story I heard and frequently tell is that of a guy who purchased a lottery ticket at a shopping mall — with a grand prize of a car. Dude’s number comes up, he goes to claim his prize and the mall tells him they don’t have the car he’ll have to accept a cash prize. Dude doesn’t like it and a squabble ensues. Eventually it winds up in court and the ruling is that gambling is illegal in the UAE Dude gets the ticket purchase price back.
As far as those lenders who may get stuck on loans gone wild — well they may get enough back to purchase a lotto ticket.
Even in the little backwater town I lived in (actually it wasn’t all that backwater but even in comparison Abu Dhabi is backwater when stacked up to Dubai — Al-Ain more so) the cranes were as common as camels. When I would return from summer vacation DXB would look markedly different and especially Al-Ain (however, Al-Ain is in Abu Dhabi) from when I left with new projects starting up all over.
The UAE government is very pro-Western however, that does not always translate at the citizen level. One rich UAE family (by UAE standards) and commercial group (I owned a car dealt by them) I have heard is a monetary supporter of AQ — perhaps extorted but none-the-less after I heard the rumor I did not like the notion I had patronized this commercial group and sliver of my sweat may have financed Atta. This was something I did not hear until after I left the UAE.
What would be interesting is to watch the internal politics of this (of course not an open thing). There is a rivalry between Dubai & Abu Dhabi. In fact, a widely discussed rumor was that that rivalry nearly got HOT back in the ’80s. DXB prevailed in that one and set the stage for them becoming the place to be in the UAE.
“Triana” supposedly came out of a dream Al Gore woke up from at 3:00 am one day (what’s up with 3:00 am, anyway?). That’s what kind of a ditz the almost-President is. When I heard that anecdote and saw it taken seriously, I began to realize that one needn’t be a crank to believe that the elite had corrupted the system you and I pay for.
walt/5 –LOLOL -snappy, man, snappy!
I think what’s being missed so far are the possible broader consequences of a default, if it’s happened. British banks have always been heavily involved with the Emirates and are believed to hold a large proportion of this debt, although I don’t know of any site where I can find specific numbers about this.
The British banks are pretty well tapped out after surviving the Iceland fiasco, and Brown’s government is no no shape to prop them up yet again. If this debt does go into default, then one or more major UK banks could get taken down, and with that the entire banking crisis that we thought was averted a year ago is back up and running all over again.
Btw, Greece is getting very close to defaulting on its sovereign debt as well.
> We live in strange times. Yahoo reports that a Japanese gamer
> liked his virtual girlfriend so much he married her for real
Somewhere I feel very sorry for these guys.
http://failblog.org/2009/11/27/girlfriend-fail/
Vilmos
“The point about minarets is that they are an explicitly triumphalist device.” Lifeofthemind@16.
Exactly ! We need to remember Erdoğan’s quoting of Gökalp’s poem:
“The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers” .
The Islamists and their dhimmi tools understand this all too well, hence their outrage at this show of resistence.
I earnestly hope that the Swiss will stick firm on this, and not back down.
Well i found this right entertaining:
http://www.escapefromdubai.com/
If he is to be believed, this gentleman strapped on a SEAL style, shallow water insertion rebreather and just swam out of Dubai underwater, after taking out the engine of the harbor patrol’s only pursuit boat. Evidently had a buddy pick him up off shore in a yacht, sailed to India and then flew back to the States.
He was extremely well connected to the royals there too. He must have been facing BIG trouble.
Pretty funny. He looks to have spent some time in his youth with the French special forces/Intel community. If he actually did what he says he did then I believe it. That sort of diving with gear like that is not for the fainthearted, particularity in middle age.
He claims that he wore the rebreather under a burka as he left his hotel and headed for the gulf.
Amazing tale, and perhaps prophetic.
Talk about being underwater on your debt. Too Funny