Lee Smith in Slate paints a dark picture of America’s future in the Middle East. He notes the administration’s language towards Iran, which started with brave assertions to “‘do everything that’s required to prevent’ Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons … has given way to new catchwords, like deterrence and containment”. Containment? Oh well, one can live with that. But Smith argues the use of the word “containment” is to mischaracterize the situation. The problem he says is that current American policy towards the Islamic Revolution is already one of containment. And that containment is what is failing. The prospective condition the administration is describing as containment is really something else: a breakout. Once Iran gets the bomb, he argues, all the rest would follow suit. Having watched America impotently striving to keep Teheran from arming, the other powers would draw their own conclusion. Every man for himself. In short order the region would become a tinderbox. And what would despotisms in the region do with nuclear weapons? Smith offers up a number of ideas. Traditionally the despots have used force against their own people and ethnic minorities. Saddam used gas. Would other dictators stint at nukes?
If Iran gets the bomb, other regional powers will pursue nuclear programs—if they are not already doing so. Inevitably in a region as volatile as this, there will be a few small-scale nuclear catastrophes, probably rulers targeting their own people. Saddam gassed the Kurds and slaughtered the Shiites, Hafez Assad massacred the Sunnis of Hama, and mass graves throughout the region testify to the willingness of Arab rulers to kill their own people—in their hands, a nuclear weapon is merely an upgrade in repressive technology. Still, it’s extremely unlikely the regimes will use these weapons against their regional rivals. Remember, the main reason these states support nonstate terror groups is to deter one another and thus avoid all-out war.
But there is cold comfort in the fact that states in the region are habituated to using proxies instead of armies to war against each. It raises the possibility of a lethal combination: proxies + nukes. And Smith argues this operation equals Nightmare. The prospect of a combination of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction is one which America fears the most. Witness South Asia. If the US is already having fits worrying about whether the Pakistanis can keep their nukes from being misused to the extent that it is willing to directly help the manage the Taliban, then Lee argues that we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If Iran and possibly Syria get the bomb there won’t be enough armies in the West to fight all the insurgencies that might get their hooks on a nuke.
However, the prospect of states transferring nukes to so-called nonstate actors is a nightmare for the United States, which does not fare well against such tactics. Consider that our response to 9/11 was to use our armed forces to democratize the Middle East. Also, consider that the most convoluted reason for making war against the Taliban is to keep the nukes of a neighboring country out of the hands of its intelligence service’s dangerous elements. That is to say, we cannot even deter Pakistan, our ally.
If that’s not enough to cheer you up, the third possible use of nuclear weapons in the Middle East is against Israel. Despite the suggestive historical fact that Armageddon is actually a place in Israel, this possibility has ironically raised hopes in certain circles that Israel may be pushed into doing things the West cannot nerve itself to do. If things really get bad, why the desperate Israelis will take the risk without Washington having to bother. But Lee Smith argues it won’t be enough. With the “American-backed regional system” switched off or perceived to be impotent, the canary in the coalmine can never realistically bear the burden of the Great Eagle.
Many were surprised when Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the other Sunni powers quietly cheered on Israel in its battles against Hezbollah and later Hamas. But this was extraordinary only to those inclined to see the region in terms of 300 million Arabs pitted against 6 million Jews. Instead, conceive of it rather like this: There is an American-backed regional system, and then there are those—from Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and the Soviet Union to Bin Laden and the Islamists and now Iran and its regional assets Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas—who are eager to create a new Middle East of their own design.
It’s such a dark prognosis that Smith himself cannot believe any rational administration would go down that dark road. But it has the air of whistling past the graveyard. “No sane person believes that the United States is suicidal, but if a nation will not or cannot defend its way of life, it has taken the first step toward its inevitable decline, which is tantamount to suicide.” Lee Smith’s article is what one would call a “worst case scenario” for the coming decade. Things may not necessarily work out that way. But then again they might; and if it seems odd that policy makers obsessed with the Global Warming “precautionary principle” aren’t more worried about what might go wrong if Iran gets the bomb, it’s a matter of judgment. They’ve figured things out and weighed the risks havent’ they? Haven’t they? The problem is that the authorities in Washington are fallible and sometimes gets obvious things spectacularly wrong. Like the Olympics. So what could go wrong with Iran? Let’s hope that nothing does.
Anyway, as you all know from On the Beach, Australia is furthest downwind. The last glimpse for the Sunfish as she sails home and where the final glass will be raised to a once great time.
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There are things that can be even more worrying than the scenarios the article itself shows. Consider who the readership of Slate is, and take a look at the first two comments there:
1)”I thought we were well past the days of thinking of the world as a zero sum game. As the biggest player in this “game”, continuing to view the world this way is self-fulfilling.
At previous points in our past, countries like Spain, England and France were in the same position. They’ve turned out to be very nice places to live even after they’ve lost their power. Being an American, I wouldn’t mind being in that position someday.”
2)”Thought experiment – imagine Iran with a nuke: The only thing that would change if Iran had a nuclear weapon is that Israel and the United States would no longer be able to attack Iran. The Iranian leaders would not attack first with a nuke because the United States [with thousands of nukes] and Israel [with 100-200 nukes] would utterly waste Iran in return. They would not give the nuke to some non-state actor because (1) it could be traced back to Iran with undesirable consequences (2) they would have lost control of an extremely powerful weapon.”
– These people may be a minority in America, but it is this very vocal “minority” that elected BHO.
If they can work less this week and get the state to pay them the weekend, they couldn’t care less about being blown up next Monday.
If they survive a nuclear attack, they won’t be angry at Obama’s appeasing government, much less at Iran or the Islamists. They’ll blame Bush, Israel and the Jooooossss.
And they’ll accept higher taxes so that the goverment will be able to pay even more Danegeld. They’ll also say that, seeing the way the government’s conservative and rightist critics have been acting, Iran or whoever else did it was justified in being aprehensive and acting thus in preemptive self-defense.
They’ll also ask: “what could we expect since we still have so many nukes and such a threatening, unfriendly past history?” In short: they’ll do and say anything except fight back or ask for retaliation (which is so old-fashioned anyway, isn’t it?).
By the way, I’d like to see how socialized medicine would work in such a case. Some years ago, in a couple of weeks, France lost 15.000 citizens to a heath wave.
Air-conditioners (and lifts in old 5-store buildings) would have been enough to save everybody and prevent disaster, but the government never considered them a priority (and air-conditioners were echologically incorrect).
To make it even shorter: we’re in trouble.
Lately I’ve been pondering the question of how Israel would be able to preemptively nuke Iran without global condemnation / global retaliation.
The only scenario I can come up with is that they nuke themselves first.
The scenario goes something like this… They use their spy network to get their hands on some Iranian nuclear material (even if they have to refine the Iranian ore themselves). Find a place on their border where they can build a Palestinian smuggling tunnel. Plant the world’s smallest nuke in the tunnel and wait for a day with a strong wind blowing away from Israel. Set off the small nuke and “retaliate” against Iran massively.
It’s shocking that the geenie of nuclear weapons has stayed in the bottle this long. Eventually though, the world will have to deal with nuclear weapons, and it will either by banning their use and punishing any nation that uses them with utter destruction, or by developing defenses for missile-delievered nukes. In either case, Obama is doing the exact opposite of what must be done, in his usual up is down and bad is good act.
i think it was Sir Kingsley Wood who said on the eve of WW2 that England was too proud too fight(trying to turn a vice into a virtue).after Iran gets the bomb and the locals decide to join the club(since they’re on their own) if any country lights one up-more likely passes one off to a non-state proxy, everybody will use it rather than lose it.one wonders why the Chinese are so quiet, they’re downwind.
reg #4
When it comes to nukes, we are all downwind in one way or another.
I am all for it but….how does one go about containing hatred and ignorance? Can you build a fence around or a shield against it. My guess is that we will throw money borrowed from the Chinese at it. We will pay them to love their neighbors.
With Team 44 holding up Hezbulah as an example of a reasonable political entity our “Happy Trails” end at the cliff, smile as you hike past the warning signs.
I suppose that makes Obama this century’s Chamberlain. The war that was supposed to end the War on Terror is behind us, but as it Fascism – Terror lives on. We’ve tried the half-measure, and it has played the same song it always does.
I’m thinking of starting a casino and drinking lounge in Santiago, out of the way of world affairs until the majority decides this war needs to be won. I think “Brock’s” has a nice ring to it …
But it has the air of whistling past the graveyard.
Last spring I started writing a musical comedy based on The Obama Presidency and came up with lyrics based on the above expression. I never finished the project because I know nothing about music and everything about comedy. It takes place on the estate of Artful Shortseller (who made a fortune selling undergarments) during The Conference to Solve all the World’s Problems in One Fell Swoop.
Thing is, I did not know if the expression is “past the graveyard” or “pass the graveyard.” So I used both. Also, in the title of the conference, I first wrote “one foul swoop.” I then changed it to “One Fell Swoop” on the assumption that I had it wrong the first time. I hope I was right about that.
Just whistle while you walk
Do-dee do, do, do, do, do!
Just whistle while you walk,
Pass the graveyard.
(Pass the graveyard)
Should you find you’re in despair
Because you’re totally aware.
Go ahead, just deny.
Live life on the fly and whistle!
Pass the graveyard.
If you find you’re feeling blue
’cause work no longer needs you.
After you’re laid off
Just whistle as you walk!
Pass the graveyard.
If you were a Nigerian
You’d be happy just to own a hen.
And when the militias came
if you weren’t the ball in some game.
At the graveyard.
(In the graveyard)
If there’s a planetary war
And you’re terrified to the core.
Just put on your boots and do skidoot
And whistle! Yes, Whistle.
Passed the graveyard!
They say VX is a gas
And it will really kill you fast.
Don’t argue it ain’t fair
Just spit out your cares…
Lay your cards on the table
And whistle (if you’re able)…
OK…
Say you’re dead and just don’t know!
Then continue with the flow.
And Go!
Past, the Graveyard!
(Get Past, the Graveyard)
(Done with Rockette style kicks)
Turn your Depression upside down
Wear a smile, hardly ever frown!
Do as we do and whoop-we-doo
And whistle! Yes, whistle.
Past the graveyard.
Do-dee Doo-doo do!
It should be sung to the tune of, well, ah, “Stairway to Heaven.”
The start of the musical is at http://kiddington.blogspot.com/2009/04/prodigious-parody.html. Though I wrote it six months ago, I believe it captures the Spirit on the Nobel. Actually, I wrote Noble the first time.
Obama is preemptively destroying the US nuclear stockpile. That reduces the credibility of our deterrence. It increases the probability of aggressive action by everyone else.
The difference between now and the world of Bogart is that then the struggle was perceived as a contest between people, some right and some wrong, but both with mutually comprehensible reactions to questions involving issues such as force and fear and love and hate. Bogies newspaper is attacked by fascist thugs and stooges but it would have been to incredible to expect the audience to see them being lead by simpering self destructive monsters like whiskey‘s tranzis and sexually confused sluts.
Evelyn Waugh did have characters like the ones who have brought us to this pass. The difference is that back then most of them had enough of a survival instinct to support the majority in its struggle to survive. Ambrose Silk, Poppett Green, Parsnip and Pimpernell and friends at least knew who their real enemies were.
Where has this nutty idea come from that if Iran (or Norks) have a nuke, “we can no longer attack them”. SURE we can. And in fact, what it suggests is that IF we attack them, we attack them bigtime.
I suppose, in all of this kerfuffle, that it is just barely possible that Iran knows this, and counter to their own fevered hopes, they will find that owning an atomic bomb actually limits their own actions, and they will have spent all this money – for nothing. We can hope.
The money spent will be to end the “occupation” of Israel and return it to its rightful owners… after the fallout settles.
Brock. “Brocks” has a certain cachet, but I’d vote for “Belmont Club.” I might even visit and take up drinking again.
For anyone thinking Iran would not use the bomb because of the possibility of retaliation, I say go look at their religious beliefs again. Martyrdom and all that. . .
And for anything thinking their delivery systems are not up to the task, I say “think shipping containers.”
Iran with nukes changes everything. Big time. F
LOTM writes: “The difference is that back then most of them had enough of a survival instinct to support the majority in its struggle to survive.”
I like rational choice theory, and as a model it has quite a bit of predictive value. When the freaks are in control of the institution, however, and their rational choice theory is of a fun-house mirror kind, who knows what kind of short or long-term destruction might result?
via Mark Tapscott, today’s “Examiner”:
“And now they think they have the power and position to do what they’ve always wanted to do — tear it all down and remake it in their millenarian image of Leviathan. As philosopher Erik Voegelin would say, they don’t merely intend the immanentization of the eschaton, they are securing the appropriations and regulations to make it happen.”
Tapscott’s sentence references both general millenarian instincts (see Cohn’s “The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages”) and Renaissance/early modern millenarianism (see Walser’s “The Revolution of the Saints: A Study in the Origins of Radical Politics”), which tends towards Leviathan.
In a time of millenarian upheaval, whether of a religious or secular variety (and in the 20th and 21st centuries we’ve had secular versions of totalitarianism in the West and a religious version in Islam), the result is always the same: someone wanting to grind a boot in your face, for as long as that someone can manage, and take whatever you might have in the way of property or dignity.
Do you remember Hillary’s speech at the 9-11 memorial event at MSG? She asked the Gothamites to consider the root causes of the terrorists etc. etc. The crowd booed her. But the root-causers have prevailed. Now she’s Secretary of State, seemingly out to out-Obama the man himself. And liberals are more than ever people who will not take their own side in a fight, as long as the lattes flow etc.
test test –
Nowadays, the only country on Earth that, if (when) nuked, wouldn’t be allowed to retaliate, to strike, fight back, even if only with conventional weapons, or simply complain is Israel.
Its level of delegitimization among and by the so-called international community is so complete, that there is no action it can take that would be seen as justified. Whatever happens, Israel is a priori and by definition considered THE aggressor.
According to almost every nation and government, to the UN and practically all international organizations, NGOs, liberal, leftist and religious groups (including many of the mainstream Christian ones), to the world’s media and public opinion everywhere, Israel was conceived in sin, with nothing but sinful intentions, and has existed thus, with no other objective or goal than to butcher the most innocent, the most suffering victims who have ever existed: the Palestinians.
Whatever is done against Israel either by the Palestinians themselves, by others in their name or by anyone else who can even remotely be shown to sympathize with them (and, for this, it’s enough to be against Israel) was, is and will be justified. In the eyes of the contemporary world, there is no such thing as aggression against Israel: any attack on the 100% evil and illegitimate Zionist entity is always retribution, punishment, preemptive, or rather, belated self-defense by the desperate, aggrieved victims of its unexplainable sadism.
Throughout the Cold War there was tacit agreement that whoever used nukes first deserved to be nuked. This, however, doesn’t apply to Israel. I’d say there’s a growing consensus that Israel is so profoundly evil that it already deserves to be nuked and that, if it were so attacked, any of its reactions or counter-measures would constitute a new, gratuitous, wholly unjustified aggression. This, for instance, is the basic implication of the Goldstone report. How could a country, or rather, an “illegitimate entity”, that is forbidden from defending itself, be possibly allowed to even consider striking back?
But never mind: next in line is the “heart of darkness” itself, the US.
The first nukes used in war were called, as we all know, Fat Man and Little Boy. When the Iranians pack their initial nasty in a shipping container and send it off to Allah-only-knows-where, it will need a name. They might like to consider Killer Rabbit or Peanut Farmer — an appropriate homage to the man who, three decades ago, made the alarming likelihood of the moment all but inevitable.
And while I’m being cheerful, the notion that the U.S. would be Dinner Jacket’s first target doesn’t ring true. Retribution would be inevitable, even with Obama’s limp finger on the button. So, consider instead the advantages to packing up a few sly kilotonnes and sending them off to, say, Sydney.
Hitting a U.S. ally would be a neat way of sending a very pointed message to Washington, yet it would also give that craven wretch in the White House every opportunity not to respond. After all, it wouldn’t be American lives lost.
Having shared that uplifting thought with BC readers, I’m off to bed.
Essay question for extra-credit:
Assume that you’re the captain of one of the Israeli strategic assets at sea. You country has been incinerated. Your sons and daughters and friends are gone. Your family’s home for 100s of generations is a new Carthage, burned and salted never to be lived in again.
Your cohorts have returned the favor to the one small fraction of your declared enemies that launched on you. You have 20 ten megaton warheads left.
Do you launch on their enablers before committing suicide? Those who by their inaction documented their belief that there’d be no final judgment on their sins of omission in this life.
East and/or West? Capitols or their major cities? Diaspora or not?
(hmm. Time to move to Perth.. They didn’t understand in the 60s that most of the southern hemisphere will be untouched given what we’ve learned of the jet streams, especially Western Australia)
None of this will stop the spread of nukes in the middle east. Nothing except some offense that sets every muslim into action nuking the offending party after threats fail. Nothing will stop this until there is nothing in the middle east but irradiated sand. People dying of radiation poisoning and blaming their NEW problems on the Jews, America, Sunni or Shia and the rest of the world.
These folks are seeking death and are quite willing to take everyone of us along with them to please their version of God and the perfect man.
The middle east is full of walking dead they just ain’t done the deed yet, but it’s coming, Lord knows it’s coming.
Two opinions, for what they’re worth:
1) My guess is that the Iranians will test a nuke on some place like Dubai, Riyadh or Kirkuk. It sends a message: we have it, we’ll use it again, listen carefuly and we’ll tell you what we want. Who will risk war to defend the Emirates or the house of Saud?
2) I think the Israelis and (maybe the Indians, too) have a no first use policy on nukes. They understand what the world reaction would be. Just as important, the Israelis are the people who send precision missiles to kill four known terrorists in a jeep in Gaza, but spare the bystanders on the street. With precision weapons you don’t need to use nukes.
One nuke will not destroy Israel. It will cause a lot of death and suffering but it will also demand retaliation.
How will an American, Israeli, French or Russian leader react if his largest city is nuked without warning? That seems to be the $64,000 question.
This must be the “Peace in our time” scenario that Nobel-Laureate Obama’s policies will usher in. Very impressive.
Anybody: what is the call and audience response repeated at the end of the video?
Why wouldn’t the Iranians simply test their nuke on their own soil as a demonstration, like the Norks, and then use it as a psychological club to terrorize the region and further their agenda without being labeled first-use aggressor, and thus drawing retaliatory immolation?
I’m not being original in saying that the real danger here is that an “Islamic” republic (talk about an oxymoron), be it Iran or Pakistan or Malaysia or Indonesia, will couple the threat of a nuclear attack to an European city like Rome to choreographed, local street riots by Islamic “youths.” Mark Steyn’s been saying this for years.
Working off of Bartok’s comment @ #1, the shakedown will work this way: the “youths” will engage in violent, vandalistic civil unrest and, in response, European law enforcement agents will imprison, or “torture,” or even kill a few of them. The Islamic bloc and its sympathizers in the UN will declare this “Racism,” and they will openly bandy-about the nuclear threat. Since most European politicians are pacifist by nature, they will seek to appease this threat by offering concessions to the Islamic bloc. These concessions will mirror the demands that we are already used to hearing from radicals in the Islamic world: all will extend Shari’ah, including its intolerance of free inquiry and representative democracy, further into Western Europe.
Again, echoing Bartok’s skepticm RE Slate’s blinded readership, I’m not sure why this is foretold as a disaster for America, per se. Most monied, classically liberal Europeans will flee the continent for our shores (we’re already seeing this in advance of the shakedown), and America’s melting-pot society and our citizens’ constitutional right to bear arms, combined with Bush’s preemptive gaming of this shakedown in Iraq has prepared us already, both legally and mentally, to repel this scheme domestically.
I’m sounding like a Pat Buchannan right now (Ugh!), but, America could choose to stand by and watch the melt-down in Brussels, Rome, Bonn and London as the heat from Teheran gets applied, the cars get burned and the decadent, welfarists quake in their high-fashion boots, while we benefit from the flight of capital and people to a resurgent “Fortress North America.”
I think that, furthermore, one could prepare for this by investing in real estate in safe places like Alberta, Arizona, Idaho and Montana right now. All these new emigres will need someone to sell their land to them!
Make hay while the sun shines, I say!
I include Canada in my thesis, but the same goes for Australia, too. One worry for our brothers down-under, though, is Indonesia’s shown a penchant for playing the same game (see East Timor), and our Aussie friends’ island-continent may be a little too close to Irianjia (sp?) for real comfort.
Re: Gordon #21
I think its Aussie! Aussie! Aussie!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aussie_Aussie_Aussie,_Oi_Oi_Oi
bizarre choice of performer though…
Andre Rieu (LOL!)
Containment is a military strategy as well as a diplomatic one. Containment of the Soviet Union involved wars and proxy wars.
Obama, a man who has no idea of how much he doesn´t know, thinks containment is the opposite of a military strategy. It is not.
What do the Indians do? Are they really sure that the nuke came from Iran?
What happens if the Irans send a nuke on a missile that lands by mistake in the Great Ophthalmologist’s yard? Or in Saudi? the potential for an oops is sooo great that these scenarios are real.
WRT containing Iran. One must start with the assumption that the mullahs care about this life. L3 said in the previous post that the eternal life thing keeps him going. I expect his view is not far from mine in that it is our responsibility to do this life as well as we can so that we can come to the next. I believe the mullahs think that the killing of as many kaffir as possible will ensure their coming to the next. (In point of fact, that seems to be the surest way for an islam to get there, if you believe their press) Anyhoo (sorry buddy) whats the point of deferring the slaughter of kaffirs if it delays your acquisition of the virgins?
The central idea behind MAD was that we both were interested in life. We have God. They had vodka (an odorless tasteless liquid). Different strokes…. but a hold on this life.
What’s the animating idea behind continuing a society whose god says if you die in the killing of those who dont believe in you, you are guaranteed a place in heaven with 72 nubile young females.
The incentives simply dont work in the right way.
Doesn’t what happened, or more accurately what didn’t happen, with the N. Korean nuke program anticipate the situation wrt Iran? Perhaps a stronger response to Kim il Jong would have forestalled the development of nuclear mullahs. Maybe it’s not too late, though it’s plenty late in the game, to destroy the Nork program. Properly that should be the responsibility of the Chinese, but for some reason they seem like idiots on this issue.
But the Japanese haven’t yet started a nuke program of their own, nor have the South Koreans, though both populations well could and would be excused for seeing the necessity of doing so. They probably see our land-based commitment to the peninsula as some kind of guarantee.
Maybe we should commit instead to leaving. That opens the way to all sorts of possibilities, some good some bad, not the worst of which would be freeing up our range of available options should things turn nasty.
But to get back more directly to the issue at hand, why should any other country commit to a non-first use policy wrt Iran and nuclear capabilities, given the mullah’s stated intentions? If an Iranian nuke site – the one at Qom comes to mind – could with minimal civilian casualties be taken out with a tactical nuke placed on a bunker-buster, why should that option be categorically rejected?
If the Iranian justification for pursuing nukes is as a safeguard against U.S. and Israeli aggression, then perhaps it is time to disabuse them of the notion. Instead, we should send the message and hope they learn the lesson that the course they are on leads only to trouble.
Despite our overwhelming nuclear advantage, we have chosen not to use it until now. Perhaps it’s time to rethink that position, inasmuch as so many innocent lives are at stake – Iranian among them. The time for playing nice with the mullahs or fighting by Marquess of Queensberry rules is fast coming to an end. (And maybe in the current crazy political environment only a Nobel Peace Prize recipient can nuke Iran.)
This is all part of the same overall philosophy, folks.
If CRA loans program led to the financial meltdown, then obviously you expand it. It simply has to be made too large to fail.
Same thing with Medicare and Medicaid. We did not know where we were going to get the money to pay for them, so you greatly expand them. Too large to fail is the answer.
If the Federal Budget Deficit is too large, make it larger.
And if Containment is not stopping Iran’s nuclear program, then you need more Containment.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Unless you are Obama, in which it is called Hope and Change.
“Happy trails to you, until we meet again.” Roy Rogers
“We’ll meet again some sunny day.” Last words in the film “Dr. Strangelove.”
“…nuke Iran.”
I meant that in the strictly limited context of destroying the Qom site. But for artistic purposes, I suppose I should have channelled McCain and said “bomb Iran.”
Happy TrailsDale Evans & Roy Rogers
This may be the time to point to a two year old study by a well-regarded non-political think tank on the probable outcomes of nuclear war between Israel and Iran in the near future.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1254861891444&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
The study concludes: “If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran were to break out 16-20 million Iranians would lose their lives – as opposed to 200,000-800,000 Israelis”
A key factor in the study was the assumption that Israel has thermonuclear weapons while Iran has boosted fission weapons.
A couple of days ago, wretchard’s essay entitled “The End” motivated me to ask what kind of scenario might pose the most direct path to violent destruction of the US as a functioning nation. While I felt my analysis too speculative to report in the comments section to that essay, it illuminated – to my mind at least – that proliferation is single greatest threat to our own survival.
My little exercise identified a surprise attack on the US – with a shockingly small number of thermonuclear weapons (especially if our leadership at the time of the attack would be similar to what we have at present) – as possibly sufficient to bring ‘the end’ to the US as a functioning entity. The number I arrived at is small enough to be within the reach of a ‘rogue’ nation or ngo.
Now, at first glance, the transition from fission to thermonuclear weapons is a big step. Despite India’s claims, for example, it has not yet been able to take that step. So, I concluded, this kind of mortal threat to the US clearly lies some distance in the future. Then again, recalling the public circus about the ‘W88/China’ affair that occurred during the Clinton Administration, we are reminded that the transition might possibly occur with lighting speed. (My own view is that there was not a shred of truth in the public discussion of that circus, but even so, the threat it identified has to be real and ongoing.)
The bottom line of the CSIS study is that Iran has everything to lose in a nuclear war with Israel – Israel survived in that study while Iran did not. Question is: does Iran understand what it is playing with?
Bottom line for the US – this trend toward proliferation may well produce a mortal threat to our own survival far sooner than we seem to imagine. Question is: do we understand?
There is no containment because Iran or Pakistan will simply hand over or perhaps elements within the National Security apparatus will hand over nukes to be used by proxy on the biggest target — the US, for concessions. Money, tribute, withdrawal from the Gulf, Eastern Med, Israel, it will all be on the table. And the extortion won’t stop.
It’s not a one-time event. NYC or Boston or Chicago or DC dying does not stop there. Rather, ANOTHER city in the West dies to get MORE concessions. This is the logic of the nuclear car bomb.
Stopping it requires sacrifices in power by women, gays, feminists, Blacks, Hispanics, SWPL yuppies, and so forth. It requires signaling by doing, actions, that make power structures in the target nations of Iran and Pakistan absolute sure of US retaliation. Down at the actual power centers — tribal leaders. Which meant troops, military spending, power shifting away from the transnational elites with faith in the UN, a really good speech, and the Yuppie PC Multicultural consensus. It meant taking Baghdad, making an example out of Saddam, making one out of Assad, of Tehran, of unmistakable demonstration of US power and the ability to fundamentally reshape to the detriment of local power structures the internal balance of power. Such as Tikriti Sunnis on the losing end of Iraq’s power structure post-Saddam.
It was inevitable that laziness, greed, stupidity, and lust for power would overwhelm the West and thus guarantee GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR.
The logic of the nuclear car bomb means not just NYC dies. Toledo dies, along with Boise, Dallas, or Atlanta. Which means as a matter of simple survival the US must construct rapidly nuclear weapons and wage a WAR OF ANNIHILATION against hostile nuclear states such as Pakistan and Iran. Killing about 75% of the people in those nations so that they lack the means to do anything, much less make or maintain nukes. Preventing further follow-on attacks by opportunistic seekers such as North Korea or China or Russia.
This is the logic — elements within Pakistan or Iran CANNOT stop at just “one” city killed, because the appetite for “more” concessions, money, and power leads them to kill other cities for greater demands. Their appetites being unbounded, and fearing no consequences since none have come about from Obama and the Yuppie elite. This creates fear and survival mode among the military, State leadership, and the people who will use any means (particularly if the Constitution is suspended by Obama to give elements concessions) to survive. Obama can only get his way up to survival. Then he will find it a different story, if people in Atlanta or Dallas or Phoenix decide to live rather than die.
And thus the Silverado Moment. Where Linda Hunt tells Kevin Klein, that villain Brian Dennehy cannot hurt her if he’s dead. So Klein kills him.
I again commend to BC readers Arthur Koestler’s short novel, “The Call Girls” for a great description of the mentality that will bring the project of Western Civilization down. The quest for utopian perfection will lead to ruin, but we already knew that.
Israel can do some serious damage to Iran’s nuclear capability but not enough to destroy it long term. While they do have specially modified F-16 I’s, they lack the ordinates to eradicate deeply buried facilities unless they use their own nukes. My understanding is that it would take three to seven days of carpet bombing by real bombers (not fighter-bombers) to achieve that goal without nukes, and the US is simply not going to do that.
My own view is that Obama is trying to provoke Israel into attacking Iran. That way Obama’s hands are clean, Iran’s program is set back, the Arab states are outwardly outraged but secretly delighted that their Persian enemies are weakened, and our newly minted Nobel Peace Prize winner can step in after the fact to negotiate a “peace.”
Unfortunately such an eventuality will hurt us, though perhaps less than if Israel does nothing. Israel, having demonstrated its strength but also having used up its “ammunition,” so to speak, will have necessarily provided its neighbors with more reason to arm, with their own nukes if they can. And part of our Nobel Prize winner’s “peace” program will probably be some sort of arms embargo against Israel.
That will still leave our enemies free to develop (or buy) their own “car nukes” to do the damage others have chillingly described.
Weakness never leads to peace. And wishful thinking is never a good substitute for strategy.
If you really want a scary story for Halloween, folks consider this: On the surface Russia would have much to gain from a ME arms race and limited nuclear exchange in the area.
First, their arms sales would skyrocket, especially the ones for rockets. They did not destroy the missiles removed from the silos but kept them and have been selling them as space boosters, (Dnepr, Rockot, START). The same goes for some of their sub launched ballistic missiles (Volna and Shtil).
Second, the worldwide denial of ME energy supplies would make those of Russia much more valuable. And given that the Europeans are over here in the USA right now learning how to extract natural gas from heretofore unobtainable sources, that is a concern to them. And of course, bad times in the ME would very likely reduce the Moonbat Ratio in the U.S. Congress, making increased U.S. drilling inevitable, and that is bad news for Russia, too.
And of course there is the diminution of the USA and the desperation that would result in Western Europe and the former Soviet republics, more good news all the way around.
But of course, such nuclear proliferation would also means that the many groups who have a bone to pick with the Russians would have better access to WMD, too. So the probability that Moscow will receive an Academy Award for Best Smoking Hole goes up quite a bit.
By the way, did y’all know that the first Iranian satellite carried a GPS receiver? Why do you suppose they are experimenting with high accuracy missile guidance systems? It beatsthell outa me.
Just as technical notes, I would not be very certain that Israel could construct or deliver a full fusion weapon, the boosted fission weapons are mostly well less than a megaton, and I thought the Indians did just claim to have successfully constructed (tested?) one.
And the US is a big, tough country and could probably survive a number of simultaneous nuke hits, presuming there was not a massive invasion or other prepared insurrection at the same time.
I pray we never have to test this, of course, but again, the breathless idea that one nuke and it’s all over, is just not the case.
“…it’s extremely unlikely the regimes will use these weapons against their regional rivals…”
So, if “Extremely unlikely” is 1 in 500 per year, and there are 15 nuclear states, how long before the nuclear war is likely?
Here is a depressing piece by Anthony Cordesmann on an Israeli Iran nuclear exchange. Bottom line is that Iran ceases to be a functioning society.
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/071119_iran.is&nuclearwar.pdf.
Much as I would like to believe that Whiskey and company are wrong, I think in the end that the USA will wind up nuking most of the Islamic world after we have been attacked. I don’t really want to play this game, but they keep insisting that we submit or die, and I will not submit or die quietly.
PS WWS is right that BHO is a slacker doper who long ago decided that being a light-skinned black with a good line of BS was all he really needed in life; the guilty white folks would do the rest. So far, he’s doin’ ok.
#31 scenario A
what everybody , they and we keep forgetting or do not understand-they are limited by their ability and we by our intent.what we in the industrialized west are willing to do now(in a time of peace and plenty)as compared to what we would be willing to do after one or more nukes are set off,well, under those circumstances i’m sure the jolly roger would be run up the mast.
Fred2
exactly, the reason the US has been able to reasonably certain that no one is going to nuke an American city is that the US is a large country with a very survivable nuclear response.smaller less secure,and less mature countries will not have that luxury.
27 sirius sir said “the Japanese haven’t yet started a nuke program of their own, nor have the South Koreans”.
And you know this how?
I recall recent speculation that the Japanese could develop nuclear weapons in four weeks. The South Koreans probably don’t need much longer. I expect Taiwan is busy too. None of them will announce their nukes but given the Norks’ saber rattling, and the reliability of American defense guarantees at the moment, you’d be crazy not to be working on a nuke program.
As Tom Lehrer said: Who’s next?
Tick, tick, tick, tick…..
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/2009/10/11/#005389
The EPA becomes a major problem in a nuke attack. They will keep people out of any area where there is any residual radiation. You will have to prove it is safe. Look at the large area around Chernobyl now off limits. Imagine how much more restrictive the EPA will be in setting limits.
Without preparation, people will try to escape in their cars, then sit on freeways exposed to lethal doses of fallout. So even a “small” nuke, can have a major result. Remember a ground level bomb produces much more fallout than WWII bombs exploded at altitude.
My thought on Israel: It has a Samson option. If they are attacked, every Arab capital, Mecca, the oil fields, all go. The only question is what European cities are on the list? So that captain on the ship in #17, already has his orders. A living dead man switch. Like our military in the cold war, who would retaliate for the killing of America, as they died.
With regards to Japanese nukes, I would call 96 hours to them having one operational. That or a Mecha-Godzilla
. Those are some practical and hard working people on those islands and I don’t think they trust in only umbrellas to keep off the rain. I also think it’s in certain neighbors best interests that the Japanese warrior ethos doesn’t get the fuse re-lit, being what happened the last time.
Presby, I agree. They’ve read their N. Machiavelli, if you’re going to be an international pariah you might as well do it right. I wonder if they’d hit Egypt though… prevailing winds are from the w/sw there???
Presby: Further thought on your post… I disagree with your thoughts on the EPA. I’m intending that self serving bureaucrats and other tax eaters become rare in such a situation. Wouldn’t want to waste a good crisis, would we?
whiskey’s obviously right about the “logic of the nuclear car bomb”
However, there is an alternative resultant scenario to what he suggests.
Iran’s acquisition of nukes will inevitably lead to greatly increased nuclear proliferation.
The emergence of a black market in nuclear weapons is then certain.
Obama’s inclination to appeasement means that Venezuela, assisted by Russia and Iran, will be well on it’s way to nuclear capability by 2012. Venezuela’s getting nukes inevitably results in other S.A. nations going nuclear.
How long till Japan and South Korea decide that they have to have nukes too?
My admittedly inexpert estimate is that within 20 yrs the number of nuclear capable nations will increase from the present suspected 9 nations to, at the minimum, 22 nations.
But as nuclear proliferation increases, there is a high probability that other, somewhat less rich and technologically capable nations will feel compelled to buy them from whomever they can, increasing the nuclear club.
The regional arms races that will emerge will be global, not limited to just the M.E. region. Nuclear proliferation has its own ‘tipping point’.
Once that tipping point is passed, nuclear car bombs are certain. Terrorist organizations will then make their demands and Iran et al will have ‘credible deniability’.
In such a scenario, nuclear retaliation is not really an option… consequentially, isolation and a Fortress America mind-set ensues, leading to a near-permanent state of Martial Law.
Because, for the average person, security, sufficiently threatened, trumps ‘freedoms’ every time.
They’re rioting in Africa, they’re starving in Spain.
There’s hurricanes in Florida, and Texas needs rain.
The whole world is festering with unhappy souls.
The French hate the Germans, the Germans hate the Poles.
Italians hate Yugoslavs, South Africans hate the Dutch.
And I don’t like anybody very much!
But we can be tranquil, and thankful, and proud,
For mans’ been endowed with a mushroom-shaped cloud.
And we know for certain that some lovely day
Someone will set the spark off, and we will all be blown away.
They’re rioting in Africa, there’s strife in Iran.
What nature doesn’t do to us, will be done by our fellow man.
Courtesy of the Kingston Trio, fondly remembered by some here I’m sure!
44,
It is more likely to be round up the usual suspects if a nuke goes off. Why worry about who was actually responsible, if there are two possible subjects, just get a two for one. Remember, we didn’t have to choose between fighting Hitler and Tojo. We beat both of them, even though Japan was the one who attacked us.
If/when it happens, the pressure to “do something” will be extreme. Anyone who earlier threatened us, would be seen as guilty, for just doing that. Not arguing for rightness of result, but likely result.
43.
The EPA is proud of how its employees were on the ground after Katrina. They will be there. You will welcome them. We are lucky O has such a small plate, or they would already be a cabinet position. Although they already have a czar (Browner). At least half a one.
Those worried about these issues but who don’t wish to contemplate the horrible moral dilemmas they create can devote themselves to examining ways to use resources in outer space. It’s interesting to recall on the occasion of Columbus Day, how much the search for a new world was driven by despair over the condition of the old. I trust however, that there are no indigenous people on the planets to displace.
It may sound crazy now. But may not so crazy in a hundred years.
Presbypoet @ 46…
Lest we forget…
Hitler declared war upon us 12-11-1941.
A tiny little reason why we went to war with him.
For an interesting take on proliferation (more like hyper-proliferation) is a Vernor Vinge novella called “The Ungoverned”, where individual self-defense packs a big punch, with interesting results.
I have a nagging premonition that nuclear exchange will take place between Iran and any non-shia muslim place you’d care to mention. If there is no will to stop Iran from getting the bomb, why will the rivals of shia Iss-slum sit around and be kept up at night as sitting ducks for this more dynastic form of Islom? Those rivalries go way back, and I’m sure they can vault up the list of priorities when the nuclear urgency/option enters the equation.
Wow, Quig! Yep I remember that one.
It’s deja vu all over again.
Folks I’m sixty something years old now and I’ve never known a decade that the USA wasn’t at war with some godforsaken far-flung country. The trouble is when we aren’t at war with another country we fight ourselves. It’s disheartening. Endless conflict wears out the soul.
And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon god they made
And the sign flashed out its warning
In the words that it was forming
And the sign said, “The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls”
And whispered in the sounds of silence
-Simon and Garfunkle
Who are the “Neon Gods” this time around?
When I contemplate Nuclear Nightmare scenarios, the first thing that starts in on me is the terrific irony that with all the improvements in communications technology, rumour (who put that “u”in there?) and speculation will blaze like a wildfire; e.g. if it wasn’t North Korea, then what will they be expected to do? And on what basis is what they may say, release, or whatever to be considered reliable? No matter what they say initially, they will soon become defensive and paranoid, and begin shooting them off, and claim it was for defensive measures, etc. etc.
And all this exacerbated by communications technology, because we’ve (some have) become so impatient for instant info.
Me, I’ve got a place all picked out for to place my head in the sand. So Long, Suckers!
When the Bombs begin to fall, I am going to hop on a plane and fly to wretchard’s house!
#45 Qig, i was trying to recall that one by Kingston Trio, I remember listening to it as a child (a live recording) and being puzzled by the outburst of laughter at the ‘blown away’ line, just like nowadays when people laugh at Letterman personal stories. But the good news is that they’ve reached a settlement in the Polanski case: 1st Prize- a night with David Letterman. 2nd Prize: Two Nights, with David Letterman.
Hmmm, brain fart, I can’t remember what the nuclear launch protocol was if the President and Vise President where both killed in a nuclear attack??
Josh@35: Good points all.
On your first point, I only reported the assumptions in the CSIS report. I do note that CSIS had the connections to know for sure, if it chose to use them.
On your second point, you’re right India has made that claim, but I think they are talking about a boosted fission weapon. It has also claimed that it has separated plutonium for a couple of thousand fission cores. Who knows?
On your third point, one of my guesstimates was that after a certain level of damage (dozens of cities gone, tens of millions dead, many millions displaced, more millions dying, inadequate resources everywhere) the regions would look to dealing with their own hurts before responding to central authority and that the tipping point would depend on the quality of the national leadership. With an Obama as President, the tipping point would come at a lower level of hurt, with a Reagan, maybe not at all.
And, on your final point, yes, I absolutely agree. The reality of the proliferated world we are sliding into is not one where someone will fire off one nuke and its over. My baseline scenario motivated by wretchard’s essay of two days ago had a starting estimate of 50 modern thermonuclear weapons in a surprise strike, and I adjusted that number up and down as I worked through the various assumptions. I will argue that 50 is a conservative number for this kind of exercise. No nuclear state today has less than 50 weapons, and I think that in a proliferated world, most will want many more.
Reg@38. My little exercise persuaded me that we need to be thinking in terms of hostile states with substantial nuclear capabilities in a proliferated world if we fail to hold the line now.
Wretchard@47. We have an unused continent on this planet which is relatively easy to get to and far more hospitable than anything in space. It lies due south of Australia. I would think we might want to colonize it first.
Does a culture that sends children into battle, or suicide bombers into market places, give a flying fig about certain western concepts like “deterrence?”
Get real you armchair quarterbacks! These people will ignite the whole world and themselves with it. The concept of nuclear deterrence is a farce!
A rat and a scorpion were standing on one side of the Suez Canal. Both wanted to get across. The rat could swim but was afraid of predators. The scorpion could not swim, but could deter predators with its poisonous sting. Said the scorpion to the rat, “Let me ride upon your back while you swim across and I shall sting any predator that might eat you.” The rat responded, “I’m a bit apprehensive, for what should I do if you should sting me?” The scorpion replied, “That would be foolish, for you would drown, and I with you!” The rat agreed. So the rat began to swim across the canal with the scorpion on his back. Half way across the scorpion stings the rat with its deadly poison. As the rat drowns he cries out in utter disbelief, “You have stung me and now we shall both die!” To which the scorpion replies, “Ahhh yes, but you forget, this is the Middle East.”
“how much the search for a new world was driven by despair over the condition of the old.”
I don’t think so it was in the spirit of the circles of Renaissance culture, kind of euphoria for discoveries and knowledges.
Also Marco Polo’s “book of the marvels” had a great influence on population of navigators, they all dreamt of Indies, of the empire of Kubilai Khan,in Italy, particularly in Genoa, where C. Colombus was born. There were many discussions in bars, seemen were awaiting for embarkation or for a sponsor.
even painters witnessed of this desire for explorations, still in the next century after that Christopher Colombus made the travel
here From Vermeer, the geographer (17th century) :
http://tinyurl.com/yjezrm3
54. Gaffe Prices & Rock: I used to sing that with a at frat parties way back before the dawn of recorded history; when I was a callow left-leaning youth.
I think some on the sinister side assume that all the players in the game will act rationally. They forget, or perhaps never knew, that we are playing with a culture that has sent pre-teens out as mine detonators.
Hi, I love the blog! Sorry to be off topic, and don’t post this if you don’t want, but I felt I should point out that the “Pulse 360″ ad box at top of page is displaying at least one ad that is a scam – it takes you to the “Google Profits Kit” scam. Just an FYI. Thanks.
“The Ungoverned”
http://freesf.blogspot.com/2007/11/ungoverned-vernor-vinge.html
55 Toad
The speaker of the house is next in line for the presidency. Have a good night’s sleep.
Ned
Some interesting commentary in this thread. Got me to thinking about what Iran might do with the bomb if they had it. The only recent experience we have with Iranian belligerence was directed against Iraq, and certainly there’s no love lost between Iran and any Arab state. Of course Iran threatens Israel, but nearly every Muslim state feels the need to threaten Israel and talk about returning that land to the Palestinians. Aside from talk and small trickles of money, they don’t seem to do much to help the Palestinian cause. And turning the land radioactive for the next century hardly makes sense if they truly want to give Palestinians a place to live. I’d say the scenario suggested above where nukes are used to defend ill-mannered Arab youth rioting in Europe makes sense. Or delivering a nuke to one of our allies makes sense — Australia would seem the best choice because the Aussies have supported US policy very well since before Vietnam AND they’re far enough away that Obama could say something like “they’re outside our sphere of influence.” As the mushroom cloud settles over Perth the Iranians could say “you’re next” to Europe, America, Japan and anyone else they’d like to blackmail. It would not be a pretty sight. But they’d have to have some concrete demands in mind to make of us and our allies — merely to threaten would grow stale and pointless. Hmmmmm. As Yul Brynner says in The King and I, “it’s a puzzlement.” F
62. Ned:
Yes that is the line of succession, but does launch on on attack come into play or is there a wait time to install the Speaker as President and give him the launch codes?
64 Toad,
I don’t know, but if there is such a protocol as launch on attack, I assume it would be activated just shortly before the potus & vpotus were incinerated and would be a moot point for the speaker.
Ned
Here’s a link to a Guardian (UK) article about Obama’s administration stripping powers of Immigration Law enforcement from Arizona Sheriff Arpaio.
… for actually doing his job.
(Has anyone seen any reference to this in ANY U.S. news source other than Drudge?)
Every single day seems to bring a further bushel basket of brainless deeds from this bunch of clearasil-scented adolescents playing out their wet-dream at our expense.
This week we’ve had even folks dissatisfied with Obama’s paralysis on Afghanistan, tell us that General McChrystal should be fired for making any public statements that end up embarrassing the commander-in-chief.
Two thoughts on that:
(1) The statements he made were not at first controversial or embarrassing to his commander; they only become so as the “commander” sits in his own soiled diapers day after day, unable even to recognize that he’s due for a change.
(2) If Obama considers that McChrystal has embarrassed him, intentionally or otherwise, and that the proper course is publicly to relieve him of his command, and doesn’t even have the guts and grasp of unfolding events to do so, this is further proof – as if we needed it – of Obama’s utter incompetence as a leader.
Any bus driver has to exercise better presence of mind than Obama has shown in his non-stop procession of prat-falls.
There are high school students waving signs by the highway hailing drivers to stop and buy the Pizza Special, who are more conspicuously qualified to lead this nation than anyone in this administration.
We could have done better to recruit from the ranks of methadone-clinic rejects.
It’s raining outside, and these guys can’t figure out which end of the umbrella opens up.
“She parked across the road in full view of the sea, got out of her car, took another drink from her bottle, and scanned the horizon for the submarine. Then as she turned towards the lighthouse on Point Lonsdale and the entrance to Port Phillip Bay she saw the low grey shape appear, barely five miles away and heading southwards from the heads.
She could not see detail but she knew that Dwight was there upon the bridge, taking his ship out on her last cruise. She knew he could not see her and he could not know that she was watching, but she waved to him. Then she got back into the car because the wind was raw and chilly from south polar regions, and she was feeling very ill, and she could watch him just as well when sitting down in shelter.
She sat there dumbly watching as the low grey shape went forward to the mist on the horizon, holding the bottle on her knee. This was the end of it, the very, very end. presently she could see the submarine no longer; it had vanished in the mist. She looked at her little wrist watch; it showed one minute past ten. Her childhood religion came back to her in those last minutes; one ought to do something about that, she thought. A little alcoholically she murmured the Lord’s Prayer.
Then she took out the red carton from her bag and opened the vial, and held the tablets in her hand. Another spasm shook her, and she smiled faintly. “Foxed you this time,” she said.
She took the cork out of the bottle. It was ten past ten. She said earnestly, “Dwight, if your on your way already, wait for me.”
Then she put the tablets in her mouth and swallowed them down with a mouthful of brandy, sitting behind the wheel of her big car.”
On the Beach by Nevil Shute
Bunyip @#16: I hope you slept well last night. After reading your post, the idea of Sydney or Melbourne or Perth as a “demonstration” target is going to ruffle my slumber this evening.
Wretchard @ 47 reminds us that it is much easier for bloggers to envision scenarios in which the world is nuked, and much harder for us to contemplate the moral dilemmas attached to such decisions.
Having had the privilege of speaking to Israeli Air Force Command I am impressed that such moral dilemmas are constantly on their minds. Same for the IDF which, as you probably remember, risked the lives of their own soldiers instead of wide-spread bombing of terrorism infested neighborhoods.
I would not have too much difficulty destroying all the “bad guys” if my country or my family were facing destruction, but it would be much harder to destroy the innocents. For that I have to turn to the bargaining between Abraham and God prior to the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah.
Abraham asked if the God of Justice would destroy the innocent with the wicked. Starting with the hypothesis of 50 innocent, Abraham argued God down to 10. God said he would not destroy the city if as few as ten righteous innocents lived there. In the end it was only Lot and his wife and their two unmarried daughters who were innocent. They were escorted out of town while the rest of the city burned.
Poor Mrs. Lot was turned into a pillar of salt for looking back at the fate of her two married daughters left behind. (This is implied and not explicitly stated in the text.)
As for the post-script, Lot’s daughters, thinking it had been the end of the world, got their dad drunk and slept with him on consecutive nights, giving birth to two of the eternal enemies of the Israelites.
Who knows what stories our survivors will tell?
Hmmm. When people keep tossing around these Doomsday scenarios, it makes me think of various times humans have experienced vast cataclisms in the past.
Not so much expecting comfort, as in resignation that nobody gets out alive anyhow, and eventually, humans and the nurturing Earth are restored.
The Black Death is estimated to have killed between one third and one half of all living humans in successive waves sloshing across Europe in the 13/14th century. There were other deadly epidemics throughout human history and pre-history, the more deadly the less documented, because of the disruption.
For all the actual evil the conquistadores did, the inadvertant spread of measles, influenza, and the common cold, killed many tens of millions of the native inhabitants, whether or not any European stepped within 500 miles of their village.
While I know that there are daughter products of nuclear blasts and nuclear fission reactors that have very long half-lives, that doesn’t necessarily mean that any place where a nuke has been detonated will be uninhabitable for centuries.
It’s not something I care to test, but paralysis in the face of Jihadists is no solution. If that’s the o strategy, we might as well use some markers to draw nice clear dotted lines on our necks with a post-it note saying “cut HERE.”
=====
Batman you are right, but our fathers (and grandfathers) faced that same dilemma when bombing German and Japanese cities. They knew French Civilians were dying when they were shelling and bombing in the D-Day invasion.
Any police officer responding to an armed robbery in progress in a business is faced with the choice of possibly harming innocents to stop a criminal.
Colonizing outer space does sound a little crazy. There is an impossible barrier of black nothingness and unimaginable cold between here & anywhere liveable. Even still, I would leave Detroit in a heartbeat to volunteer as a red-shirt.
Mad Fiddler @70 — I think we are on the same page. Even in the Biblical story God did not say He was unwilling to destroy a certain number (10) of innocents if that was the price for destroying the evil twin cities.
Yes, we did the right, though painful thing when bombing Germany and Japan. In fact, I wish we had bombed the railroad tracks or even the barracks of the concentration camps — innocents would have died but even more would have been saved.
That is where morally informed heroes and the politically correct utopians part ways.
I often think of it as analogous to chemotherapy for cancer. Yes, healthy parts of the body are damaged and sometimes destroyed but appropriately though regretfully so in the necessity to kill the cancer.
Ben Laden does things in groups. Two embassies in Africa. Four planes with four targets, plus the afghan killing of the Northern Alliance leader, and the possible attack on Bush.
There will be no demonstration. This is the time for the killing blow. It is not Iran, but our other foe.
So we should see a blow in multiple places, at near same time.
New York; the heart of America’s economy.
Washington; to finish the job on the Capital the heroes of flight 93 saved.
San Francisco; the perfect ground zero of the Bank of America building, also home to Pelosi, and gays of the Castro.
Chicago; Obama’s base, where the gang he rode in with rules.
Then either Disneyland or Las Vegas, as sign of our frivolous decadent weakness.
Five bombs. Enough to do severe damage, yet few enough, to keep secret. Early in the morning on a Monday. The date will be significant, but only in retrospect. The world turns, mass death dealt to America.
This plan has been in the works for a long time. Careful slow movement of trusted people. I’ve wondered why no attacks in America since 9-11. There have to be many jihadi already here. Why have they done nothing? Why do they sleep? This explains it, they do nothing to draw attention. They wait. Patient, 8 years between attacks on the trade center. Moving weapons into position. The same slow way the cannon moved into position against Constantinople.
I pray I’m wrong. I’m downwind. I know where and how to shelter from fallout. So many will die unprepared. I hope the reason for no attacks is our great defense. Yet that can’t be true. The border is full of holes. Our homeland security a joke. I wonder what else to do? I have no inside information. Only an understanding of how he operates. I wait and watch, and wonder. I ponder the conjectures, and pray.
The nation, America is not suicidal. However there is a sizable group with a view that they would be doing everyone in the world a favor by being America’s Kevorkian. Unfortunately they are the ones in power at this time. The suicide machine is in place. The needle is close.
I like the part about the precautionary principle:
If Iran, and others use the bomb(s); Worrying about nuclear weapons is so pasé to the left and democrat party now: its “global
warmingcooling” that threatens all humanity, and heightens their drug induced orgasms now. This is something that must be dealt with NOW!!.Think about it: the left was willing to vote for invasion and removal of Saddam based on the notion that our troops would be facing Saddam’s WMD because we had waited so late, and/but because Saddam didn’t want to get caught with any, shipped them out to Syria, and buried the means to restart his program: The left got to have it both ways. Nevermind that none were deployed against us, and that that was the good news, oh no, the left went on a tear and said they’d been lied into war so they could return to their multi-culti platform and use ethnic politics to play the aggrieved party. That the middle east was undergoing a transformation into a region of hope for representative government was beside the point. Despots learned that U.S. had taken its eye off the ball and that change for the better was being postponed indefinitely. Therefore, Iran could survive for four or more years, steal an election and put down dissent again.
Candidates for election in Beirut would be assassinated, and Nancy Pelosi would don the scarf, and John Kerry would seek pre-election treaties and relations (Carter did this during 1976 election with the Soiviets) with an un-named axis of evil member Syria.
So per Wrethards point, democrat party might sit up and take notice post facto of a nuclear exchange, but only because of the danger it would now pose vis a vis their “global warming” bailiwick, but not before…
Because to do anything about it now would take attention off promising everyone “health care” and planning to pay for it via a destroyed economy- it’s a two-fer.
Brilliant. Now I can rest easy, knowing that government health care will be there in the event of any crisis, because we did the bold courageous work in the nick of time.
To prepare for a health “emergency”.
Oh lord, what will democrat folks think of next?
They own this this time, but that’s not likely to help us much.
9. Life of the Mind
“Evelyn Waugh did have characters like the ones who have brought us to this pass. The difference is that back then most of them had enough of a survival instinct to support the majority in its struggle to survive. Ambrose Silk, Poppett Green, Parsnip and Pimpernell and friends at least knew who their real enemies were.”
Sure but their caution was due to the fact that they were likely to get blown away if they went too far.
There is almost no chance of that happening now to the real villains in contemporary affairs, from ACORN to Gaddafi, Chavez, Putin.
History is my thing but my biggest disappointment with the Russians and the Chinese is that Stalin and Mao died of natural causes (as far as we know).
There are neater and final solutions.
I don’t particularly like the idea of attacking Iran but it would solve a LOT of problems that will spread like wildfire if we let them escape.
If you think nuclear proliferation is dispersed now because Iran has multiple sites, just wait until multiple countries have multiple sites. And those multiple countries will HAVE to acquire nuclear weapons to protect themselves if we don’t do it now.
I guess y’all have heard the base definition of power. “Why does a dog lick his dick?” The answer, of course, is because he can.
Iran is developing nuclear weapons because it thinks it can and it thinks it can because they believe we have gone soft and decadent.
This genie is almost out of the bottle and stopping Iran is the only way to put the stopper back in.
Then we only have to worry about North Korea and Pakistan.
We can put the genie back in the bottle with conventional weapons at this stage.
That may not be possible in the future once the mushroom clouds start going up.
17. Ari Tai
“(hmm. Time to move to Perth.. They didn’t understand in the 60s that most of the southern hemisphere will be untouched given what we’ve learned of the jet streams, especially Western Australia)”
Yes they did Ari, ref book and movie versions of “On the Beach” where Oz was the last to go under as the radioactivity gradually leaked down from a totalled northern hemisphere after a massive nuclear exchange.
37.jWarrior
“Bottom line is that Iran ceases to be a functioning society.”
Ceases?
52. Gaffe Prices
“rumour (who put that “u”in there?)”
Ummm, it was always there. Teddy Roosevelt took it out when he wanted to rationalise English language spelling in the early 20th century.
A notable aim in my humble estimation.
if it wasn’t North Korea, then what will they be expected to do? And on what basis is what they may say, release, or whatever to be considered reliable? No matter what they say initially, they will soon become defensive and paranoid, and begin shooting them off, and claim it was for defensive measures, etc. etc.
Every time someone launches a missile it gives us precise pinpoints for retaliation.
Mobile launchers and submarines or even shipping containers are a real problem in that regard.
But we even have very rapid counter battery capability now for tracking mortar and artillery rounds to point of origin. ICBMs launch sites and such like are easy.
It’s the unknown sources that become problematic.
I have no idea of how long analysis would take to pinpoint who made the nuke but it would want to be quick to cut follow up attacks.
So what if it was delivered by a third party. The people that made it should be held responsible.
“the horrible moral dilemmas”
Ah, c’mon Wretch, that all turns to sh*t when the red flag goes up.
There’s a time for moralising and there’s a time for utterly subduing your enemies and the enemies of reason aka “terminating with extreme prejudice”.
The time for thinking and moralising is before the flag goes up.
Somethings like the rights quoted in the first 10 amendments to the US Constitution are simply not negotiable.
Any person that pushes me too far on that is a dead mofo and that’s as sure as the sun is coming up in the east.
And that goes for BSers, individual or national or from some fascist cult that present a clear and present danger to our way of life.
Ask the Germans and the Japanese. That was our final solution and in fact it was a humane one because when we were certain they were no longer a threat then we did the right moral thing, because we could afford to.
“the horrible moral dilemmas”
Ah, c’mon Wretch, that all turns to sh*t when the red flag goes up.
I know Bob, just me fighting for my immortal soul as time goes by. Let this cup pass away and leave the beast inside to slumber. Give it not leave to raise its head. Comes a time when you’re not scared to die, just scared to look in the mirror.
Speaking of which, that new pic should assauge your observations about risk in looking Asian should warfare or unrest break out in Oz.
Gray hair really downplays our racial origins appearance-wise.
I don’t think you would ever had had a problem in Oz anyway but now it is certainly much diminished. Just remember your sunglasses.:)
BTW I tried to contribute to BC a month or two ago and the system would not let me because it refuses to accept post office boxes but that is all I have because I live in the bush and there is no mail delivery.
My credit cards are made out to my post box.
Suggestions, Richard?
Is Iran really designing nuclear warheads?
They would like to be able to, but aren’t going to make any.
To be able to make nukes, your country has to master over 30 different sciences… from electronics, to fluid dynamics, to metallurgy, to super-acid chemistry, to etc etc etc. Iran has got none of these things. Hell they can’t even make their own petrol for their cars. They pump out all this oil… yet can’t make petrol out of it. They have a looooonng ways to go.
Nope, the Nuke that goes off in Sydney, or Perth, or Washington, or Disneyland…will come from someone else. Don’t ya think it more likely that a few nukes from those stockpiles to the north of Iran might find their way into Iranian hands, and that Iranian centrifuges are just a cover?
Why do the nations conspire
and the peoples plot in vain?
The kings of the earth take their stand
and the rulers gather together
against the LORD
and against his Anointed One.
“Let us break their chains,” they say,
“and throw off their fetters.”
The One enthroned in heaven laughs;
the Lord scoffs at them.
Then he rebukes them in his anger
and terrifies them in his wrath, saying,
“I have installed my King
on Zion, my holy hill.” Psalm 2
Wretchard @82:
Yes, I’ve known a number of men who have told me about the nightmares they have had about the past and the future. Some said they had gotten a rush out of the violence at the time but afterwards……”It was not what I did that disturbed me, it was that it didn’t bother me that disturbed me. I don’t want to do it again.” My brother’s words.
Jim @39,
I agree completely that the Japanese, and likely the S. Koreans as well, have the capability to make a nuclear weapon. No doubt they can do it on short notice and it’s entirely possible they may already have “started” a program to do so, depending on your definition of started. My point was they have not yet announced or indicated an intention to do so, largely due to our presence and implicit guarantee of protection. But that situation is likely to change given the N. Korean threat.
Honestly, of all the things posited in my comment, I least expected to be challenged on this particular point.
#73 presbypoet
This plan has been in the works for a long time. Careful slow movement of trusted people. I’ve wondered why no attacks in America since 9-11. There have to be many jihadi already here. Why have they done nothing? Why do they sleep? This explains it, they do nothing to draw attention. They wait. Patient, 8 years between attacks on the trade center. Moving weapons into position. The same slow way the cannon moved into position against Constantinople.
Without even coming close to breaching anything classified; yes, they are here. Open source, here is one small tip of the iceberg:
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2009/02/35-jihad-training-compounds-on-american-soil.html
I note that one of their compounds was broken up many years ago, not 10 miles from where I used to live, deeper in the mountains. And no, this is not an area that normally has a large Muslim population. But they were there, and they were very well armed when they were busted for being involved in bank robberies to finance themselves. The same group now has a tap into the Saudi treasury.
And I emphasize, this is the tip of one of the icebergs. I know of others. To act against them, to even maintain strong surveillance over them, would mean that the government would have to admit there is a real threat. I fault Bush for not doing enough, without doubt. This regime will actively conceal them until it is too late, lest someone think a politically incorrect thought [among possible other reasons].
I will not argue at all against your targeting scenarios, as I have come to a similar conclusion based perhaps on other additional factors. I would add Los Angeles to the list for similar reasons as San Francisco [they hate the media depictions of Western life], plus ease of emplacement of a device brought across the border. The primary variable is the number of targets, and which ones; but it will happen.
#86 TheCharlatan
They would like to be able to, but aren’t going to make any.
To be able to make nukes, your country has to master over 30 different sciences… from electronics, to fluid dynamics, to metallurgy, to super-acid chemistry, to etc etc etc. Iran has got none of these things. Hell they can’t even make their own petrol for their cars. They pump out all this oil… yet can’t make petrol out of it. They have a looooonng ways to go.
If you are designing a “warhead” or “payload”, you need those skills. Most of them are required so that you can convince the thing to go ‘bang’ when you want it to, and only when you want it to, after the stresses of being launched by whatever means. If you are designing a “device” that will be delivered at sub-Mach speed where miniaturization and delta-v is not a factor; the problem is somewhat less demanding.
If you want to increase your use of blood pressure meds, I recommend that if you can find it; get the 1980′s book “The Curve of Binding Energy” by Theodore ‘Ted’ Taylor. Taylor was one of our premier nuclear weapons designers during the Cold War. If you have all of the sophisticated tools, you can get a “warhead” down to the size of an orange. He says you can’t get it down to the size of a lemon. He’s tried.
However, to make a “device” that will work all you need is the knowledge of a first year college physics student today, plus a few open source publications. That and a supply of fissionable material [35 kg. of 70% enriched U-235 or 5 kg. of Pu-239] and a modern machine shop if you have expendable workers [somewhat more expensive machine shop if you want to keep them alive for round two and not have to evacuate the area for a l-o-n-g time] will let you design a crude device that will give a Hiroshima sized yield and will fit easily into a minivan, an SUV, a standard shipping container that fits on both ships and behind semi’s, any decent sized multi-engine civilian carge aircraft’s hold, and most jet passenger aircrafts’ cargo holds. It will not be an elegant design, but it will easily suffice for a counter-value targeting strategy.
Not only can it be done, during the late 1960′s to the 1990′s it was a not uncommon news story about how a college student had designed just such a device as a school project. Today, the computations involved would be a lot easier. You can open source buy a literal desktop supercomputer with the capability of the CRAY’s I once drooled at. Or, if you want to remain lower profile, you can use the BEOWULF parallel computing algorithm to link a couple of hundred OLD Pentiums rescued from second hand stores [a number of universities use them] and get the same capability.
I don’t deny that Russia may be following a two-track strategy. There are reports recently in the foreign press [not in our state-controlled media which cannot tolerate anything outside the Narrative] that the Russians are helping the Iranians design “warheads” for their missiles. But the “device” strategy is also in play. The Russians are furnishing the fuel “for Iranian reactors”. U-235 reactor fuel is enriched to 3-4% level. Weapons grade U-235 is 70% plus. While there is argument as to the exact level of enrichment of the material furnished to Iran by Russia; it was reported to be between 10-20% enriched. Your average media person considers knowledge of nuclear physics to be akin to knowledge of witchcraft in Salem, Massachussetts in 1692 and just as forbidden. Even if they understood, they would not follow the train of thought in a report because it could result in double-plus ungood thought. But if the reports were true, the Iranians would have to be diluting the U-235 instead of enriching it for reactors. There is only one reason to be enriching. And since that would have proved Bush right, they would not report it.
I personally believe that our enemies [and they are a larger and more complex group than the man in the street will admit; albeit all are known actors where the dots have not been connected. No "Illuminati", Knights Templar, or Freemasons.] will use smuggled “devices” to attack us. If “warheads” are used, they will most likely be used against Israel, who understands that they have national borders for a reason, and that those outside those borders pose a threat. Smuggling a nuke into Israel is multiple orders of magnitude more difficult than smuggling one into the US.
Of course, Your Mileage May Vary, my interpretation of the data I am seeing could be dead wrong, and I readily admit that I am only seeing open source data [albeit sometimes more specialized] and that there are things happening on the other side of the event horizon that I have no way of being privy to.
Subotai Bahadur
Subotai Bahadur,
I noted with interest your reference to ‘Ted’ Taylor, who close to twenty years ago became locally famous as the former nuclear weapons designer standing at the forefront with those opposing the imposition of a nuclear waste dump in our region. Met the man a few times. Seemed quite humble and soft spoken. My take is he felt it necessary to try to make ammends for his prior vocation.
#90 sirius_sir
I have not met him, but from various writings I accept that he knows whereof he speaks in the field of weapons design, without doubt. I assume you are not far from Yucca Mountain. I did not know he opposed it. I am curious as to his reasoning.
Subotai Bahadur
Subatai89: Not to be a pedant, but “The Curve of Blinding Energy” is about Taylor, not by him. It was written by that incomparable journalist, the New Yorker’s John McPhee, who has also penned books and articles on long-distance truckers, the decline of America’s merchant marine and its hard-pressed sailors, the surprisingly matter-of-fact details of a test pilot’s life, and many, many other diverse topics. Geology is a frequent theme and has produced some of his best pieces.
McPhee was a casualty of Tina Brown’s reign as the New Yorker’s editor in chief. I don’t know if she spurned his work absolutely, but I can’t recall seeing many of his pieces after that dreadful woman dragged the magazine of Updike and Hersey into the realm of worshipful celebrity-watching, allowed Hendrik Hertzberg to launch smug assaults on the cowboy W and, infamously, published Susan Sontag’s advice as the Twin Towers still smouldered that the West brought that jihadist outrage on itself. As the editrix of The Beast, where even Waugh’s hapless Boot could once again find a berth if his opinions were Upper-West-Side orthodox, she has sunk like a stool to the bottom of journalism’s fetid bowl — proof that everything sooner or later finds its appropriate level.
The good news is that McPhee, who must be all of 80 these days, continues to investigate interesting things and write about them with great skill. I doubt that J-schools urge their students to study this master of investigation and explication, but in a better world they would.
More on McPhee here, if you’re interested:
http://www.johnmcphee.com/
and here (with audio):
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5508293
Oh, and if you need a reminder of Sontag’s evil, her drek is preserved here:
http://groups.colgate.edu/aarislam/susan.htm
Responding particularly to TheCharlatan in post No. 86 –
Remember that 60-year-old technology sufficed to develop the successful U235 and Plutonium fission devices over Japanese cities.
The Smyth Report (mostly evals written as part of the Manhattan Engineering District documentation to account to Congress for the monies being spent) released within a decade of the events, contained information that confirmed many lines of inquiry for the attentive scientist elsewhere, as well as inadvertently identifying unproductive lines of attack.
My untutored sense is that the main problem for the aspiring Nuke nations is less the knowledge of how to design and manufacture the bombs, than building and sustaining the industrial infrastructure to gather all the materials. Almost all must be enriched from raw ores or deposits where they make up tiny fractions of the whole. A Gas Diffusion cascade plant to refine weapons-grade U235 from .7 percent to 99.9+ purity in any reasonable time requires buildings taking up hundreds of acres. Ditto for high-speed centrifuges, and all such statistically-based methods.
At various steps there are fiercely radioactive by-products and fiendishly poisonous intermediaries that must be handled safely.
Adds to the problem that they have to hide stuff underground, or somehow in plain sight despite the US high-resolution satellite cameras.
But the Mullahs who sent twelve-year-old kids in pyjamas strolling through mine fields to clear pathways for the troops following with rifles, don’t have any qualms about starving and depriving their people for the treasure needed to build these factories.
Of course, they might be able to purchase weapons from nations which have disheveled and untidy bookkeeping.
Making from scratch helps ensure that what they build will work.
Just like for you and me, buying a black-market piece from a guy who says it just accidentally fell off the delivery truck, you just don’t know what you’re getting. It has no manufacturer’s warranty, and no money back for malfunctions.
AND, you can never be certain of the intentions of the seller.
#92 Bunyip
Of course, you are right. I blame age and time since I read it. My copy being packed away right now, I was depending on a faulty memory.
Subotai Bahadur
Subotai, if memory serves, I believe the first Chicago “pile” to achieve a self-sustaining chain reaction was based on Uranium Oxide purified to a very high degree, but NOT enriched to concentrate the isotope U235. This means the Uranium would have been 99.3 percent U238. (The oxygen has a low-enough neutron capture cross-section that it does not poison the reaction.)
It’s my understanding that for a nuclear reactor – NOT a bomb – un-enriched natural mixture of Uranium isotopes will achieve “k”, so long as the neutron-absorbing impurities are removed.
Uranium concentrations which scientists are satisfied were once three natural nuclear reactors found in separate ancient geologic deposits near the Oklo mines in Gabon, West Africa show that chain reactions occur even without human jiggery-pokery, and certainly without artificial enrichment of isotopes.
sorry – “k” refers to the multiplication factor for neutrons as a chain reaction plays out – below a certain level it dies out for lack of neutrons; above that level it will continue indefinitely until the fuel is poisoned by absorptive by-products or the fissile fuel runs out.
Subotai, no not Yucca Mountain, but western New York State. The proposal for the dump stipulated it as a “low-level” radioactive waste site. I can’t speak for Dr. Taylor, but I think his objections involved the characterization (some would say, mischaracterization) of the waste – some of it highly radioactive and long-lasting – as low-level. There were issues concerning potential ground water contamination, among others. In short, area residents perceived the State as trying to impose the dump by force and deception; and the local population did not trust the government to build and perpetually maintain a facility adequate to the task of containment.
Sirius-Sir, you remind us that one of the great hurdles we face in trying to create a nuclear power industry is the problem that we cannot trust our government to function responsibly over time.
For instance, my memory is that the disaster of Love Canal occurred because the city had purchased the land used for decades from a chemical manufacturing company PROMISING that the land would never be made available for residential development.
Sure enough, checking with both Wikipedia, plus an official review of the events on a website of the Environmental Protection Agency, and a couple of other sites, seems to confirm that much of the land owned by Hooker Chemical company was being sought by the municipality of Niagara Falls, NY because its population was booming in the 1950′s. The town seems to have used the threat of condemnation and eminent domain to pressure the company to sell. Further, when the company did agree to the sale, it wrote into the contract of sale language to guarantee that the land it had as a chemical waste dump for years used with full disclosure and permission would not be developed for residential use.
What I find fascinatingis that all the “official” and “activist” sites do their darndest to imply by omission that Hooker Chemical Company intentionally sold the land with the buried chemical wastes knowing that the land would then have homes and schools built nearby.
Checking twenty or more of these sites, I found consistently:
(a) They omit any mention that Hooker Chemical Company had been following procedures that were approved and legal for the time – even regarded by some as the best practices for the industry – with the full knowledge and approval of the local governments;
(b) They omit the increasing pressure from the town of Niagara Falls applied to Hooker Chemicals to sell parcels of its land for municipal expansion;
(c) They omit the language that Hooker Chemicals included in the sale of the land with the dump site, which was meant to prevent its residential use, and imply that the company merely wanted to get rid of the land without revealing the dangers posed.
(d) They universally portray the local School Board as utterly innocent in the transaction to purchase the land for a dollar, then build a school adjacent to the canal, and SELL THE REMAINDER OF THE LAND TO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING DEVELOPERS FOR A PROFIT.
In other words, everyone is happy to paint the owners of the evil corporation as devils who intentionally poisoned the land, and the city “fathers” who bought it later as high-minded civic servants.