Michael Totten interviews Jeffrey Goldberg who brings a fascinating perspective to the problems of the Middle East. Some key quotes:
- “I think there’s a great opportunity right now for a Sunni-Jewish convergence. The Sunni Arab states and Israel have, for the first time, a common adversary.”
- “The question of Israel is the question of what happens to all minorities in the Middle East. The Arab Muslim Middle East has 300 million people. It has a very hard time treating Coptic Christians with equality, treating Maronites in Lebanon with equality, treating Southern Sudanese in an equal way, treating Kurds in an equal way, and dealing with Jews – not only in their national expression, but even as minorities within their own countries.”
- “Just because a belief sounds ridiculous to you doesn’t mean it’s not sincerely held.”
- “Palestinians, over the years, have proven that they’re willing to sacrifice generations of people to achieve their goal of a Jewish-free Palestine. “
- “there are two Israeli strategic doctrines in confrontation right now. The first is: never do anything that harms the strategic relationship with the United States of America. The second is: prevent, at all costs, the possibility of a Second Holocaust. What if these two things come into conflict?”
- “Arabs are misreading history if they believe Israel is a temporary phenomenon. Nothing like this has ever happened in history. A dead tribe came back and seized the land it had, and did so after a devastating tragedy.”
It’s fascinating reading.
Meanwhile, Michael Yon visits the Maranaos of Mindanao in company with Filipino and American soldiers. Some excerpts:
- “Since going to British tracking school in Borneo, I pay closer attention to feet. The Taliban normally wear running shoes that often are not available in local Afghan markets. One British soldier wrote that he took inventory of all the shoes sold in his Area of Operations (AO) in Afghanistan, and subtly photographed all the men’s shoes so that he could build a library of footprints in his AO. His men avoided at least one bomb due to his tracking skills.”
- “The AFP troops held themselves like experienced soldiers. The were respectful and professional, but watchful. Made sense because I had a camera, but I also had plenty of time alone with the villagers and they could have dropped a hint if this were just a dog and pony show, but none did.”
Perhaps the greatest driver of military outcomes in history is demography, and its handmaiden, culture. Goldberg’s view of the problems of the Middle East appear to be partly rooted in the unresolved question of minorities under the Ottoman Empire. That vanished entity was based on the idea of civil peace in exchange for subordination. For so long as minorities acknowledged the theoretical superiority of the Sublime Porte and Islam then the principle of subordination was observed. When the Ottoman Empire collapsed under the impact of rising nationalism that principle was challenged. Huge upheavals followed beside which the foundation of Israel was small potatoes. Who can now remember that Smyrna was once the largest Greek city in the world. It’s now Izmir. Vast populations moved into their historic “homelands” from the wrack of the Ottoman empire. Some succeeded, some failed. In the case of the Maronites and the Jews the issue is still in doubt. Now, with nationalism and the West apparently on the wane, the old idea of subordination may be asserting itself again.
In Mindanao the story is similar but on a much smaller scale. What defeated the Moros were roads and ports and public school teachers. Together they brought the Christian Filipinos in vast numbers to Mindanao under the security of the US Army. So many that “Muslim Mindanao” as such died, probably forever. And while the Filipino Christians were often the early adopters of Western technology and education, many of the Muslims clung to their warrior ways. The Mindanao State University, which is located in the area Michael Yon visited, was lavished with an extraordinary amount of funding not only from the Philippine government but from the Middle East. But it remained a hulk, its funds looted by Muslim warlord politicians and its culture of Western-style learning fundamentally despised. The divide between the two cultures remained, though they lived in close proximity. What holds the ring in Mindanao isn’t tactics but demography.
Michael Yon is absolutely correct is emphasizing the importance of “professionalism” and relative honesty as important factors in the long term victory in Mindanao. The biggest contribution American troops make in a Philippine setting is that they often provide the role models which Filipino politicians do not. Strange though it may sound to some, many Filipino soldiers want to be good, professional and disciplined soldiers. But like everyone else, they must have leadership. And while there are some Filipino officers and politicians who provide that, many alas, fall somewhat short of the mark. And while some Americans by contrast can be rascals, by and large, when you consider the average values of professionalism in their respective cultures, the US military is much more likely to provide a good role model than the Manila politician. I know it is an oversimplification to say it, but if informal American influence can simply keep the Armed Forces of the Philippines from descending into chaotic gangsterism, then numbers will do the rest. Many of the problems of the AFP are rooted in Philippine politics. On paper its numbers are impressive. On the ground, except for the few units which are combat effective, much of the Philippine Armed Forces is fit only for garrison. Available ammo, fuel and money limit the actual sustained combat capacity of that force to a small fraction of its numbers.
Maybe history suggests that “democracy agendas” and “grand bargains” are misleading terms. Perhaps when we say “democracy” we really mean decent behavior more than mere formal elections. I doubt that the Muslims of Mindanao can ever learn to love the Christian Filipinos, but they can learn to grudgingly respect them; to live and let live. And in the Middle East, what “grand bargain” is possible when the demand on the one side is the destruction of the other? Goldberg notes that for the first time in decades, Israel’s choice may be between its strongest alliance and its self preservation. When were the roots of this contradiction planted? When Britain defeated the Ottomans? When the US toppled Mossadegh? When Carter dropped the ball on Iran? When Bush invaded Iraq? Or when Barack Obama, in pursuit of his Grand Bargain, drove the Sunnis and the Jews into temporary alliance? Political dreams often give rise actual nightmares.
There is in Michael Yon’s article a series of pictures showing the everyone eating rice and fried fish off a mat on a table, washing it down with Pepsi. The kids are giggling, the Americans are pawing at the rice with as much gusto as anyone else and even the scowling Muslim warrior is grinning, in spite of himself. It’s a snapshot of a non-political moment; an instant in time when everybody forgets he’s from Duluth, or Marawi, or Fort Bonifacio and one mumbles to the other, “please pass the ginamos“. History is our curse. We cannot transcend it. But we can glide through it with as much goodwill as we can muster.
I read the Yon article and it was interesting. I hope to visit Davao City in the near future, but we will see.
As far as a Arab-Israeli unity with respect to Iran I think it very likely that some very quiet understandings will be made between Israel and its neighbors. I don’t know about Oman, Kuwait, Qatar etc, but I do know the UAE has had territorial problems with Iran. In addition, it seems to me I recall hearing about Iranian instigated riots at the Haj in Saudi over the years.
I recall the ferry to Corregidor was manned by a man from the AFP. I (nor anyone else onboard) talked with him but he appeared 100% professional. We also visited the Armed Forces Academy and was impressed it was all spit & polish.
However, the problem as you point out lay in leadership. I often point to the case of General Carlos Garcia, and while it is deplorable one can almost sympathize as those above him are taken to be on the take and find ways to raid the national treasury. Instead of making sure the men under his command are getting paid, he was busy shopping the New York real estate markets.
Here is a quick summary on Gen. Carlos Garcia by John Marzan: http://politicaljunkie.blogspot.com/2004/10/how-rich-is-gen-carlos-garcia.html
On unintended consequences; the Treaty of Versailles can be read as a German strategic victory, since Germany’s population and economy was intact and it now had only one powerful state on its borders (France).
One of the most striking things about Palestinian politics is how it is stuck in a rut it is, with a refusal to learn from the success of Zionism. In the 1930s, the Mufti (representing the landlord class) and the Nabasbendi clan shot is out on whether to stick to the politics of No Deals With Jews or to reach an accommodation with the people whose skills and capital were increasing economic activity, including raising wages (precisely the problem for the landlords, since rising wages undermined debt bondage and non-Jewish immigration attracted by the higher wages also undermined their control). The Mufti won. 70 years later, Hamas and Fatah are having the same argument in much the same way with the situation of the Palestinians comparatively worse. The only shifts within Palestinian politics being outside aid (much of which blocks adaptation) and better organisation of political activism. Learning from the Jews is apparently precluded, even though polls among Palestinians regularly rate Israel as the most admired government (followed by France and the US in shifting order).
So if we are lucky, there will be a de facto
cooperation between Arab and Israeli in order to contain the undesirable elements in Persia.
In turn that should lead to long-term regional stability and a more ethical regime in Tehran. Letting the Palestinians stew in their own juices without a lot of material support and that can cause these Philistines to clean up their act for the first time in history.
All of which is dependent on The Good Lord Willing And The Crick Not Rising.
And none of which would be possible with Saddam and the Baathists still in power.
Looks like the Man From Midland (along with Saint Rita of course) has given us a fighting chance.
Would the Obamaroids ruin all this? Only if they could. But the way Dubya and Divine Providence have arranged things, does not look like they can. Whew!
Greetings:
Just another day in the lands of “I against my brother; my brother and I against our cousin; and my brother, my cousin, and I against the stranger”.
Saudi Arabia is the Sunni center of Islam. The Iranians are largely Shi’ite Muslims. The two groups have been having a bit of difficulty getting along since about 680 A.D. Apparently, back then, the Sunnis pulled a Tony Soprano whack-job on the head Shi’a guy. Add to the religious dimension, just a dash of Arab versus Persian racial conflict. It seems the Persians were building a civilization while the Arabs were building oasis-fires, and the former would prefer that the latter not forget that. There maybe a “convergence”, but it will be on constantly shifting sands.
But not to worry, President Obama is on the way to save the day.
“Now, with nationalism and the West apparently on the wane, the old idea of subordination may be asserting itself again.”
vs.
“US military is much more likely to provide a good role model than the Manila politician.”
* * *
I would beg to differ that the West is on the wane, or that the nationalism embodied by the American cowboy symbol is dead and buried, either. Every time someone talks about the death of America, I have to look around at what everyone else is doing.
And you know what? We’re still superior, certainly to a bunch of bare-footed knuckle-draggers in Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia, or the Phillippines.
Minor point, but I think it is the Sublime Porte, not the Grand Porte.
Sublime Porte, my error. Fixed.
In terms of Long Wars, I am beginning to think we are still fighting the English Civil War. No, not the American Civil War, you know, the one with Fort Sumter, the Southern Generals. The English Civil War, the one with the New Model Army and Oliver Cromwell.
McCain, plain and simple, represents the Cromwell faction, and Obama, it is equally plain, is of the royalist faction.
Mr. Obama would be quick to tell us that he doesn’t bear the look of English aristocracy, but that is racist thinking. If we want to bend this around, there is his Kenyan heritage — British if not English, no? — and by education and indoctrination he is thoroughly grounded in the aristocratic party.
Until the last redneck is gone from these shores (the Cromwell people wore red scarves — the red necks), America is not finished as a world power.
WRETCHARD: Question for you: It has been many years since I visited Mindanao. Nonetheless I do no recall seeing a lot of Moro women wearing headscarves back then. Today these headcoverings seem fairly common. Have things changed or did I simply not notice back when?
If there has been a change, one might well put it down to external elements getting a show of compliance with their desires—-not to mention money.
Most significant comment I saw:
In the Mindanao “ridos” or clan feuds, Muslim clans fight Christian clans and Muslim clans fight other Muslim clans but Christian clans do not fight other Christian clans, at least not for long.
When Hatfields and McCoys kill each other the situation will resolve itself in due order.
However, if Hatfields kill Hatfields and McCoys kill McCoys, there is a perpetual motion effect involved.
The “sock puppet deity” aspect of Islam may well be key terrain in matters Mindanao.
Yon – One Man National Geographic
Great Photos
Commander Lucsadato answered all my questions, saying he had been fighting in the jungles since 1976, and he couldn’t afford to have two wives while he was fighting. Commander Lucsadato said he has seven children and four are going to school.
He hated the AFP (Armed Forces Philippines) before because they treated people badly and were unprofessional. He said they were arrogant. He said that the new AFP is professional, friendly to the people and bring projects. For instance, in this village, they are helping with fishponds.
Commander Lucsadato said that the AFP treated his relatives well, and this began to persuade him to surrender, and so he came from the jungle with 34 fighters on 20 April 2009. I asked the Commander if he was in contact with other guerrilla commanders, and if they would also surrender. The Commander said he was in contact, some would not quit fighting, but others are waiting to see how his village is treated.
If the AFP treats them well, others are ready to surrender, he said. I asked Commander Lucsadato what he thinks of the United States, and he asked me to send warm sentiments back to America. His translated words:
‘send appreciation to U.S. forces and AFP for support and this is same sentiment of other fighters.’
—
(caption)
had same cite about tracking school here!
Yon in Afghanistan
Dear Reader,
I am back in Afghanistan. There is progress on many fronts, but in sum, we are still losing the war at an increasing rate.
All is not hopeless, but it’s not looking good. The fighting promises to be far more deadly for our troops here than we ever saw in Iraq. The big media has done an abysmal job of covering the latest fighting.
Yes, there are many stories from Afghanistan, but if you look at the bylines, many are filed from places like Kabul. When you see “Kabul,” think “Saigon” or “Green Zone” with hotels and bars.
I’m heading back to combat and will be right there, up close, in the middle like usual. The risks are severe and expenses such as insurance skyrocket when in combat.
I can maintain this pace for long periods, but only if you have my back.
Nobody else does. Your support is crucial to this front-line reporting.
This site accepts zero advertisements.
—
Please buy a copy of Moment of Truth in Iraq.
The book will ship immediately if you buy here, and proceeds will help me get back to Iraq and Afghanistan. The book will arrive in stores on 23 April.
—
Desolate Battles
Western Nineveh Province, Iraq
Desert Battles are unfolding in hidden and faraway places. Bullets snap through air, then splap through flesh and men fall. Bodies crumple onto the desert, a fly lands on the lip of an open mouth, fingers twitch as the flesh dies and the winds kick up and dust settles on unblinking eyes. The dry earth drinks their sticky blood and they are forgotten. Their families do not know they are dead. They came to kill Americans and innocent Iraqis. Instead, they were killed themselves. In a desert landscape, sometimes the color of a war can bleed out into black and white.
It’s been a while since I’ve been to Mindanao, except my last to Basilan and in Isabela they were visible but not universal.
9. Paul Milenkovic:
Paul, did you see this before?
If not, all I can say is – Great Minds!
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Obama, the African Colonial
Many conservative (East, West, South, North) African-Americans like myself — those of us who know our history — have seen this movie before.
Here are two main reasons why many Americans allowed Obama to slip through the cracks despite all of his glaring inconsistencies:
First, Obama has been living on American soil for most of his adult life.
Therefore, he has been able to masquerade as one who understands and believes in American democratic ideals.
But he does not.
Barack Obama is intrinsically undemocratic and as his presidency plays out, this will become more obvious.”
Well, it’s already obvious to us.
All these czars that have no accountability to legislative forces? They are not approved by Congress like cabinet secretaries are. He’s announced 13 or 14 czars. He’s running the car companies.
He’s running the mortgage and banking business. He’s done this without the process of Democratic legislation.
He’s just declared it fiat, and his party is in power in the House so they’re letting him do this. “Second, and most importantly,” she writes, “too many Americans know very little about Africa. The one-size-fits-all understanding that many Americans (both black and white) continue to have of Africa might end up bringing dire consequences for this country. Contrary to the way it continues to be portrayed in mainstream Western culture, Africa is not a continent that can be solely defined by AIDS, ethnic rivalries, poverty and safaris. Africa, like any other continent, has an immense history defined by much diversity and complexity. Africa’s long-standing relationship with Europe speaks especially to some of these complexities — particularly the relationship that has existed between the two continents over the past two centuries. Europe’s complete colonization of Africa during the nineteenth century, also known as the Scramble for Africa, produced many unfortunate consequences, the African colonial being one of them.”
The African colonial politician (ACP) feigns repulsion towards the hegemonic paradigms of Western civilization.
But at the same time, he is completely enamored of the trappings of its aristocracy or elite culture.” She’s pegging Obama here, just pegging him.
He’s totally caught up in the trappings of aristocracy or elite culture, taking the plane up to New York, flying the kids over to Paris. This is the stuff about the job he loves, he’s enamored of it.
“The ACP blames and caricatures whitey to no end for all that has gone wrong in the world. He convinces the masses that various forms of African socialism are the best way for redressing the problems that European colonialism motivated in Africa.
However, as opposed to really being a hard-core African Leftist who actually believes in something, the ACP uses socialist themes as a way to disguise his true ambitions: a complete power grab whereby the ‘will of the people’ becomes completely irrelevant.
Like imperialists of Old World Europe, the ACP sees their constituents not as free thinking individuals who best know how to go about achieving and creating their own means for success. Instead, the ACP sees his constituents as a flock of ignorant sheep that need to be led — oftentimes to their own slaughter.
Like the European imperialist who spawned him, the ACP is a destroyer of all forms of democracy.
Here are a few examples of what the British did in order to create (in 1914) what is now called Nigeria and what Obama is doing to you…
wrt Totten:
Meanwhile Rafsanjani is reported by some to be trying to have Sistani replace Khameni.
Sistani – The one who said it was the Shia’s responsibility to take care of all Iraqis, Sunni and Shia alike.
(don’t remember if he included the Kurds!)
Monday, 07 January 2008 00:00
[Note: Readers who have been tracking this morning’s news reports about a “serious confrontation” between the US and Iranian Army in the Gulf, might recall that I was the first to report on the Iraqi oil terminals in the North Arabian Gulf during my first embed in 2005.
The security of these facilities is the shared responsibility of the Navy’s of several Coalition member nations. The dispatch, called “Critical Nodes,” is published in its entirety below:]
Read more…
(I missed the date!)
Jews dismiss F1 boss’s apology for praising Hitler
Steyn Discussed BC Obamacare Dentistry Post while hosting Limbaugh Show.
In the fog, remember victory is impossible in Afghanistan Matthew Parris
Parris agrees w/Yon:
But put your eye to the other end of the telescope, step 40 paces back from the kinetic situation, and ask what it’s for. It’s to support the building of a secure, freestanding state in Afghanistan. This is not happening. The elections this summer cannot but return President Karzai, an arch survivor focused only on survival, in whom the world has already lost confidence and can have little reason for future hope. Mr Karzai’s paralysing chess game of alliances, stand-offs, jobs and favours does not represent a regrettable failure to do anything with the power he has won. It is the way he won it and the only way he can keep it.
Meanwhile, brute force can almost always hold its ground, and an American surge should bring a little more security. But for what? The ground may be cleared by guns, but there is no viable politics here waiting to occupy it. And until what? Until the Americans try to leave.
So the fortunes of war are irrelevant. To save your sanity, your solvency and perhaps your life, it’s important not to grasp the detail, or it will bankrupt you, kill your sons and break your heart. Don’t hunt for truth. Don’t dissect. Don’t delve. Don’t help. Don’t peer at the demented jigsaw puzzle of dollars, capital letters and committees, or shuffle the pieces around: they don’t add up to a country. Push aside your microscope, fetch your telescope and put your eye to the wrong end. The devil is not in the detail.
The devil is in the whole damn thing.
The Boss said “In the case of the Maronites and the Jews the issue is still in doubt.” I think it amazing that they have held out this long.
Yon talks also about the tribal component to the “wars” in the south of the PI. Note further that somebody (Doug?) on BC linked to Stephen Pressfield’s blog which contains an interesting assertion that the whole issue is the reaction of tribalism to an intrusion from the outside. This is consistent with Pryce-Jones and Lewis’ understanding of the mentality of islam as I understand them. So we are faced with a chicken/egg issue.
Perhaps the integrity of our soldiers and sailors (as described in Yon’s pieces) is the key to breaking the mindset that leads to the recurring slaughter. That may well be their part of being a Great Generation.
BTW Ive had the honor of meeting a bunch of these people. They are not common, but they are. They are not great, but they are. They are ready and fitting heirs to their WWI WWII, Korea and VN predecessors. They are all pros and do us proud every day.
Yon and Totten are doing God’s work in documenting their efforts and accomplishments. Godspeed to them.
Amen, herb –and Mark Steyn is a great one who does not gladly suffer fools –that he is reading wretchard is a compliment to the both of them.
Lorenzo (#3) – I believe you mean the conflict between Nashashibi and Husseini families, no? The grand Mufti (Haj Amin Al-Husseini) was a member of the latter.
I think you are quite right to remind us of that neglected proto-intifada. I have often thought that there are many parallels between the Arab uprising in 1936-39 and the second intifada. Not least of which was the amount of internal Arab fighting – the Hamas takeover of Gaza was a stark reminder of this habit. I believe much may be learned by studying this period in history, but unfortunately I have not yet found the time…
h/t maggies farm, the Iran gov’t hangs five students. beware disturbing video.
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-274670