Michael Totten takes on what he thinks is a pernicious misconception: the idea that Ahmadinejad is popular “outside the cities”. He argues this is a projection of the Western stereotype of city-dwellers as hip, progressive and cool. But in reality, Ahmadinejad’s power base is in the cities, not the country.
as Nate Silver documents with hard data at FiveThirtyEight, even in 2005 most of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s supporters lived in Iranian cities, not the countryside. This strange meme in many media reports that Ahmadinejad has a “base” of support beyond Iran’s cities is not only wrong, it has everything backwards. The uprising we’re all watching on YouTube is taking place inside Ahmadinejad’s “strongholds,” such as they are.
If so, that creates two possible biases. First, it understates the discontent against the regime because if Ahmadinejad has lost popularity in the cities, then he really has no bailiwicks to speak of. The second bias follows from the first. The diplomatic corps, based as it is in the cities, may have overestimated the support of the current Iranian president. That underscores the importance of looking at Iranian society on its own terms, and not through the prism of Western conventional wisdom.
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Funny, whenever I said somewhere that Ahmadjihad support in the countryside may be substantially overrated, I was immediately reminded that I am looking “through the prism of Western conventional wisdom”, because “obviously” he must have support “amongst the conservative backward country folk”.
One aspect of Muslim society that is often overlooked is that the opinions of rural people rarely matter, especially in revolutions; rural people usually take their cues from city dwellers and for very good reason.
Iranian’s “theocratic” state has always been based in the urban areas. It is often forgotten that rural Iranians generally supported the Shah before he was overthrown. So, even if the Iranian government were popular in the rural areas (where the support would be one centimeter deep), it wouldn’t matter because political power in Iran not only resides in the cities but has always resided in the cities.
That said, Ahmadinejad won’t get much support anywhere in Iran even if he did have strong support two months ago. He crossed a line in Iranian society a man must never cross. During an Iranian presidential debate on state television, Mr. Ahmadinejad openly questions the credentials of Mr. Mousavi’s wife to teach university classes. One does not insult another man’s wife in polite conversation. This is especially true in Persia.
Who’s on second. What’s on first.
Mr. Mousavi will not back down, for he is defending his wife’s honor against his opponent. He cannot back down without letting people question his manhood. If he must choose between tearing down the edifice of the “Islamic Republic” and defending his wife’s honor, most Iranians will understand if even lets himself get killed rather than let Mr. Ahmadinejad get away with insulting his wife.
Meanwhile, demonstrators in the streets are demanding that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri take over the position of Supreme Leader temporarily until the Iranian constitution is rewritten. This is a fundamental shift analogous to demanding that Leon Trotsky lead the Soviet Union. Mr. Khamenei’s title of Ayatollah is more of a reflection of his political power than any religious scholarship and most Iranians know his tenure turns the ideal of velayat-e-faqih into a farce. In essence “Grand Ayatollah” Khamenei is a fake ayatollah, a fact that most Shi’ite clerics have been well aware of; his principal scholarship has been less rooted in the Quran than in translating Sayed Kotb’s garbage into Farsi. So, putting any real ayatollah into the position of Supreme Leader would be more legitimate even according to the doctrine of velayat-e-faqih than the present farce of an Iranian state.
I think rural Iranians will see that Mr. Ahmadinejad is highly proficient at torturing people, highly proficient at insulting women, and highly proficient at making himself sound like a bellicose buffoon, but he is yet to show himself to be a real man. For all his faults, his opponent Mr. Mousavi, will fight against his own regime to fight for the woman he loves.
The present regime in Iran is going down, not because of the economy, not because of religion, not because of foreign policy, and not because of students. It is going down because Mr. Ahmadinejad has shown how a pompous bully with a Ph.D. is still a pompous bully. He crossed a line in Iranian etiquette. Iran’s civil strife will probably last for two more years. It isn’t just in Tehran.
Neither Mr. Ahmadinejad nor Mr. Mousavi is any prize, although Mr. Mousavi should be seen as a lesser evil. It is quite understandable that Iranians should use him as their banner not only because he is less bad than Mr. Ahmadinejad, but more importantly because they know he won’t back down against the regime.
In the present situation, our president ought to be supportive of the Iranian opposition and its desire for freedom against a pharaonic state, but aloof in terms of any willingness to negotiate with the Iranian state in the future. As it is, President Obama has his priorities backwards; he is reticent about supporting Iranians in the streets while being obsequiously eager to negotiate with the Iranian government. President Obama apparently does not realize that the Iranian government will accuse the United States of meddling in its internal affairs whether the United States actually does so or not.
Metaphorically speaking, Barack Obama is not merely betting on the wrong horse; he is betting in a racetrack that has just closed down for repairs after a major hailstorm.
Alexis, an interesting angle… How does it square with the islamic thingy that woman is worth half a man?
BTW, the bolded segment, ya took words from my mouth.
you forgot that Khamenei leads the Renseignements, the army, the militias…
MC, so did Reza Pahlavi, once. It’s not chess pieces, it’s many many people, involved in a power structure, that at present form one type of consensus. If situation changes, they… some of them… would enter into a different type of consensus.
I am of the impression that the amount of young men and women born in the rural areas was a huge concern of the government. Paying them off or finding employment for them has been a huge challenge since before Ahmadinejad. The lure of urban life has brought many to the cities over the years. It is the programs used to keep this demographic group occupied that has no doubt lent to the impression that Ahmadinehjad is favored by rural folks.
It is a problem similar to what Mexico faces with its rural population, and the great farming states like Montana and the Dakotas as well. No work, and no reason to stay down on the farm. It is a major part of the illegal alien problem as we perceive it here in the US.
The insult is interesting.
Ahmadinejad’s credential questioning is consistent with a Moslem male who puts low value on women. How could a women really be a university scholar? Pshaw. She’s just posing. Female upward mobility is nonsense.
From what I’ve read, Mousavi is no gem himself, but clearly somehow he hooked up with an educated woman of achievement. Arranged marriage, romantic marriage, somehow his family bought into upward feminine mobility was good.
For whatever reason, I think Ahmadinejad is now tainted. He’s been highly verbal and bellicose, but does not have the overwhelming endorsement of his countrymen/women. That trickles down to the rank and file. The police goon with the nightstick NOW must look over his shoulder.
This was supposed to be a Potemkin election and crazily one of the opposition puppets has come to life.
Over here, Obama’s unwitting genius in contriving with Soros or whomever to screw up the economy may provide benefits. The more he screws things up the more the rest of the world goes into a panic. We are the last hope. They invest here because they have — up until now — had faith in our ability to make and preserve a buck.
Perhaps a worldwide recession was a stroke of genius. It may have put the wrong man in office, but it took the wind out of everyone else’s sails. Iran is a mess where they are in an uproar over which puppet is better. That uproar is over a faltering economy. And the Iranian pocketbook had more faith in the loser.
The Wahhabis of Saudi Arabian have less money to send to Pakistan.
The Chinese are scared stiff we will default on our many loans.
The Germans and French are growing more economically conservative by the day.
Essentially everyone is suffering, but everyone else suffers more than we do.
It is like slipping yourself and every guest at a dinner party the same dose of arsenic at supper and because you weigh 240 lbs and stand 6’4″, you know it will effect you least and kill the others.
You get sick, but the others die.
The Sacha Baron Cohen model of foreign policy.
Mousavi’s wife is an inspiration
Today, however, I am simply humbled by hopes of the thousands who voted for Mir Hossein Mousavi. Suddenly whether he is one of “them” – the Khomeinists – is neither here nor there.
Something far bigger than him is occurring. The streets of Tehran are full of people who have known nothing but an Islamic Republic along with veterans of the 1979 revolt against the Shah. They are all demanding change – and they are already losing their lives for it.
For Iranian women, Zahra Rahnavard, Mr Mousavi’s wife, has become a strong and inspirational figure. Despite the limits imposed by the regime, Iranians are the feistiest, most intelligent women that you could hope to meet.
Many of my close relatives live in Iran. My 62-year-old uncle should be looking forward to retiring. Instead, like so many educated Iranians, he has to work at three jobs. In the evenings, many people’s cars become taxis as they struggle to make a few extra rials for their family.
I can do nothing from my safe haven in London but hold my breath, watch and wait. The internet is awash with updates, imagery and predictions – none of which we can ultimately count on. After all, just a week ago no one could have predicted the scenes that we are witnessing today.
Like thousands of Iranian families, mine has lived in exile for the past 30 years. People like me have taken for granted the freedoms that young people in Iran are denied.
Today we watch and wonder if this outrage will lead to calls for the separation of religion and state in Iran and an end to “Islamic rule”. Then, perhaps, we can all go back for a visit, as a family.
Shappi Khorsandi is a comedian and author of A Beginner’s Guide to Acting English, to be published by Ebury Press next month
Does anybody have an idea as to the ethnic make-up of the Revolutionary Guards vs the Army? Persians make up a significant part of the Iranian population but there are many large minorities that chafe under the Persian rule.
When it comes time to start shooting are the troops going to be willing to shoot their own? Will the Army (which I am willing to bet is more ethnically diverse than the RG) stand beside the Guards? If the military is all Persian will they be willing to gun down their own people to enforce the will of the very unpopular regime?
Don’t get me wrong here, the Norks and Saddam showed how to oppress your own by providing the right perks to the right people, I just don’t know how tightly glued together the RGs and Army are. I also understood that there is considerable tension between the RGs and Army (the Army sees the RGs like the Wehrmacht viewed the SS, spoiled fanatics).
Iran, like Iraq and Pakistan, is an artficial construct with borders that violate ethnic boundaries. How willing are the Azeris or Arabs to support the central regime? The Kurds in the north have been fighting off-and-on for years.
It seems that the right nudge may go far to collapse the entire house of cards.
“It seems that the right nudge may go far to collapse the entire house of cards.”
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It does Bose well for freedom and hi fidelity.
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Rob: Liking both Marvin Gaye and Art Garfunkel is like supporting both the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Laura: No, it’s really not, Rob. You know why? Because Marvin Gaye and Art Garfunkel make pop records.
Demonstration and Protests to Election Results – The 5th Day • 17 June, 2009
The Fivethirtyeight data is interesting. I had thought the reverse. If the crowds are widely based from the society even if the Army/RG intervenes successfully the mullahs are certainly doomed in the long run (~5 Years) and maybe sooner.
The Obama regime wants to rule with “soft power”. That is the way most US universities are run by the admins. But the Obamaites also want to enrich themselves using their government connections. So GE wants to sell to Iran and so Obama and his goons get paid off by GE once Obama leaves the White House.
Yet the economic conditions in the world and America’s weakness is going to create great changes soon.
Most of you do not know how corrupt military procurement has become and how the political DC elites operate to warp our economy. One non military example is the way ADM has manipulated the biofuel business.
What does the Obama administration know about the distribution of sentiments among the Iranian people? Does Obama have accurate data available to him, and, if so, does it factor into his decisions regarding Iran? I would like to know.
Rep. Pence On Iran: Reagan Didn’t Tell Gorbachev “That Wall is None of Our Business”
Another Republican speaks out for the people of Iran…Rep. Mike Pence sends a message to America’s weak and absent leader.GOP.gov reported:
This morning during an appearance on FOXNEWS, Congressman Mike Pence, Chairman of the House Republican Conference, made the following statement regarding the administration’s involvement regarding demonstrations by Iranian dissidents:
“The President has the right to draw the line where he chooses to draw it but I am someone who believes that when Ronald Reagan went to the Brandenburg Gate, he did not say ‘Mr. Gorbachev, that wall is none of our business.’
He went to the Brandenburg Gate and he said, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.” We know from people like Natan Sharansky and Alexander Solzhenitsyn that deep in the gulags of the Soviet Union, when Ronald Reagan was willing to call the Soviet Empire ‘the evil empire’, it gave encouragement to the people who were fighting tyranny within the Soviet Union.”
Anton:
Does anybody have an idea as to the ethnic make-up of the Revolutionary Guards vs the Army? Persians make up a significant part of the Iranian population but there are many large minorities that chafe under the Persian rule.
While it is true that ethnic Persians make up only a little more than half of Iran’s population, bear in mind that Persia/Iran has been a multi-ethnic empire with similar borders for over 2000 years. IOW, the Persians have long experience with dealing with minorities. While the Dravadians in South India talk about the “conquerer’s tongue” of Hindi, from Hindi conquest over 2000 years ago, they still are wedded to the Hindis. By contrast, the Central Asian conquests of the Russians were wedded to the Russians only around 100-200 years.