The AP reports:
BEIRUT (AP) — Lebanon’s pro-Western coalition declared victory early Monday, as local television stations reported the faction had successfully fended off a serious challenge by the Shiite militant group Hezbollah and its allies to grab the majority in parliament.
Official results for Sunday’s election were not expected until later Monday, but the winners were already celebrating by shooting in the air, setting off fireworks and driving around in honking motorcades.
The election was an early test of President Barack Obama’s efforts to forge Middle East peace. A win by Hezbollah would have boosted the influence of its backers Iran and Syria and risked pushing one of the region’s most volatile nations into international isolation and possibly into more conflict with Israel.
“I present this victory to Lebanon,” Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said on television after stations projected his pro-Western coalition was winning. “It is an exceptional day for democracy in Lebanon.”
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Good – but whatever happened to that deal brokered with the Saudis establsihing a Hezbollah parliamentary majority & etc.? I forget the exact terms. Was that temporary? Or ever implemented?
The Maronite Christians and Sunni Muslims in Lebanon did this in spite of Obama, not because of him. Also of note are the recent successes of right leaning parties in Europe.
Oddly enough, a weak, ineffectual leader at the helm of the United States may to some degree end up being a positive thing for certain nations. They will be forced to stand on their on and take responsibility for their actions without the luxury of having America around to either blame or rely upon.
So what will Hezbollah and Iran do now?
There will be blood.
I think this victory owes more to the Arch Bishop than to President Obama Beach. Question is where does the Great Optometrist in Damascus go from here? Maybe another assassination? Hezbollah is hardly de-fanged and Lebanon is a geographic expression not a nation state.
The Arabs can lose a thousands wars to Israel but Israel can only lose one to the Arabs or the game is over. If that reality isn’t changed Israel’s days are numbered. So are the Lebanese Christians.
What are we to make of this
This Lebanese election
In which the people would not kiss
The Hezbollah selection
I’m sure Iran is not well pleased
With how the thing did turn out
No matter how the job well greased
They got Hezbollah burn out
And is Assad a sad sad man
While watching with dismay
The folding up of his grand plan
When voters would not play
But I believe Assad can smile
Sitting home in Syria
He’ll have it all in just a while
He couldn’t be more cheeria
He knows his Hezbollahan gang
Won’t take no for an answer
They’ll kill their way without a pang
There’ll be a second chance, sir
Elections just don’t mean a thing
Not when you have the muscle
It’s over when the fat guys sing
It’s gone without a tussle
Cool. We got a break.
I don’t think the people of Lebanon vote because of anything we think is important. Nonetheless, good for them.
JiV/3
Depends. Elections in Iran are just around the corner. If Rafsanjani/Mousavi coalition is successful in ousting Ahmadinjihad (considered Khamenei’s yes man), they may weaken Khamennei/IRG/Basij cabal and change the course of Iran’s politics. Their main stated goals are ending the populist crony economy, ending the proxy wars in ME and allocating the resources to domestic economic growth, and scaling back the military expansion (nukes, missiles) to defensive mode.
2×4 – so you think this apparent factionalism is not just active measures, you believe there is a genuine dispute? personally i don’t, but what do i know.
Dan,
It is possible that it is a sort of a damage control. I don’t expect Rafsanjani/Mousavi to become Israel friends. They would genuflect “zionist entity” as there is no tomorrow whenever it would serve their needs. But they are not mahdists and they are not insane. They both were quite vocal about the destructive policies of Khamenei/Ahmadinjihad for some time, so it does not seem to be mere electioneering posturing. There is even a strong “conservative” support for them because many a mullah know that they can negotiate with R/M as their lucrative rackets go, but they would be f’d if the current trend continues.
Tomorrow I’m going to tell my broker to invest me long in gelignite producers.
Rurik,
May you get more bang for your buck.
Israel’s right wing, as represented by Lieberman, tends to lump all the Arabs together and all the Europeans. Their suspicions are not based on religious disputes or on the ideologies of political economy. They wish separation from the Other.
There is an alternative approach, more dare I say it nuanced? Israel could drive a wedge between the Christians and the Muslims and seek to rally conservative European support. Such an approach was tried by Sharon and the Likud at the time of the first Lebanon War. At that time it failed but the alternatives have not proven superior. To carry it out Israel would have to act as the champion of the Lebanese Christians and also as the champion of Palestinian Christians. There are maybe 5-600 Christians left in Gaza, Israel could insist on their safety. Israel could annex Bethlehem and expel the recent Sunni intruders. Israel could once more move to defang Hezbollah and the Syrians. The biggest problem this policy would face is the same one that the US or any democracy faces in the eyes of those contemplating alliance with us. That is the tendency of democracies to cut and run or abandon allies.
wretchard,
The title of this blog post might need editing.
Perhaps it should read “The Hezbollah appear to lose the Lebanese elections.”
Election results are not all counted yet. And, as I have repeatedly stated, if you believe the two camp split, it will be close. But, there is no such thing as two camps in Lebanon, except for election propaganda and for some international powers that still see Lebanon as an arena to play out their war games on the cheap. There are many parties competing for this election and all those who were in Parliament will still be there, plus or minus a few seats here and there.
This will not be the end of the world. There will not be blood flowing in the streets. Interestingly, Hizbullah fielded eleven candidates who all won. The March 14 contested only one of those seats and lost. Now Hizbullah declares it lost the elections. How? Do you see the political double talk?
How many realize that today (for a few more days) Lebanon’s foreign minister under the March 14 Government is a member of Hizbullah. He has been received in Washington, Saudi Arabia and every other country.
The only difference in this Parliament is that the majority of the 64 Christian members will be true representatives of the Christian population as opposed to being elected by Moslem votes under the Syrian-Saudi-Iranian law that existed before. A few Moslem MP’s will also be elected from Christian majority districts.
The biggest winner among the Christians is expected (numbers are not final yet) to be the “Change and Reform” block by the Free Patriotic Movement. The FPM is a nationalist secular party (Christian Majority) dedicated to modernizing the country’s institutions and ending corruption, which has reached epic proportions in Lebanon. They also oppose using Lebanon as a battle field for others to fight their wars on the cheap.
This made them public enemy number one. The corrupt Mafias wish them gone, and would accuse them of anything to insure this. Regional and international players (Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, the US, France, etc.) want politicians they can manipulate, the easiest kind are the mafias whose only loyalty is to money and would do anything if it pays enough.
That is why in 2005 almost all politicians and the World cooperated against the FPM. But, there were enough people who believed enough is enough to still elect 22 members of Parliament. Today they may have more than 30.
The second largest winners are the other Christian parties, who will never admit that they owe their independence from Hariri to the FPM. Faced with growing discontent among the Christians that these politicians are little more than servants to Hariri, and the inability to politically eliminate the FPM, Hariri is forced to back away from dominating these parties’ politics, who are working on forming their own block in Parliament. Incidentally they can only do this because of the FPM fight to implement the new election law that allows them this independence.
All the talk about a Hizbullah take over was intended to scare the voters away from the FPM, were the election battle has been focused. If they succeeded in defeating the FPM, the other Christians will once again be brought under leach and the Saudis, Iranians and Syrian would have had a free hand in Lebanon.
If the March 14 can declare victory, whatever that means, it may be the best thing for Lebanon, as it would deprive Lebanon’s enemies from instigating international isolation of the country.
With more reformists and a strong independent Christian voice in Parliament, the country can begin regaining its past glory and role as a meeting place for people, rather than a battle field. This will certainly annoy some people, but it will be extremely good for the Lebanese, the region and the world.
This will also be the best thing that can happen for US interests in the region, if Washington plays it right and does not allow the Saudis to strike a deal with the Iranians and have their allies in Lebanon unite against the Christians and prevent this.
Washington has been blinded by the Saudis for way too long. It never had a horse in this race.
Cadmus
“it’s more precisely FPM that have lost votes almost everywhere, but hezbollah has maintained their votes everywhere”
from my lebanese friend
that means the Christian party lost and that the pro-saudi won
HBZ is still in its position, still the force that can make raining or sunshine. It didn’t want to become a “normal” party, nothing changed
12. Lifeofthemind:
Israel would have to act as the champion of the Lebanese Christians and also as the champion of Palestinian Christians.
I am not sure that would work, based on what I have seen of Palestinian Christians. My father taught two members of a Palestinian Christian family, of different generations. The grandfather told his children in the West Bank before the Six Day War to get out of the West Bank, because Muslims would always promote their own instead of Christians. The older Palestinian Christian was somewhat reasonable regarding Israel. The Palestinian Christian of the younger generation is a fire-breathing Israel hater and US citizen. In his hatred of Israel he has apparently forgotten what his grandfather said about Muslims. At the same time,his cousins in the West Bank have been terrorized by the Muslims. But no, blame the JOOS.
The election was an early test of President Barack Obama’s efforts to forge Middle East peace.
What the hell does the AP think it is? Obama’s Facebook account? They shove his name into the Lebanese election as a complete non-sequitur. His cotton-candy speech from Cairo basically said he wanted to be nice to everyone except the Israelis, and and that since he rose from a genetically-preferred population, everyone should swoon to comply with his platitudes. And while they are at it, violence never solved anything [except ending slavery, and ending Hitler's career - Ed.]
Meanwhile, the myriad and diverse parties competing, legally and by backstreet means, in Lebanon’s election, have a hell of a lot more to worry about than a self-appointed preacher who walks loudly and promises to shrink the USA’s formerly big sticks to popsicle sticks.
JoeHill
Not a Nation State!!! Lebanon is one of THE OLDEST NATION STATES in history, definitely older than any other in the region. Just because it has come under constant attack does not mean it does not exist. If it was “just a geographic expression” it would have disappeared a long time ago, certainly under the heavy load of the past 35 years.
Big correction my friend. Lebanon is a Nation in the full meaning of the word. 1.5 Billion Muslims declaring Jihad on Lebanon for 1400 years could not change its identity.
Lifeofthemind
The Israeli approach you mention does not have any chance of working. Very few Lebanese Christians if any will bite. The majority knows better than to take this bait. They have already experienced the back stabbing and have been thrown under the bus too many times. The Israelis did not come to their aid when they got stumped by the Arabs. Israel provided air cover for Syria’s final take over of Lebanon in 1991, which is the only reason Hizbullah is as strong as it is today.
The last time Israel offered to “help” in 2006, it killed 1200 people, did more than 10 Billion Dollars of damage and turned Hizbullah into an Islamic icon of resistance that made it much harder to deal with.
Do not let the election debate fool you. March 14 is not all Christian. It includes the Majority of the Sunnis (some fundamentalists too) and Druze and they have no lost love for Israel. Even the hint of this will unite March 14 Moslems with Hizbullah.
Lebanese Christians prefer to make peace with their surroundings. The only real debate among Lebanon’s Christians is regarding which is the bigger and more immediate danger, Shiite or Sunni fundamentalism. If they can keep them separate and not cooperating against them, and keep the civilized Moslems on their side, they will do fine.
500-600 Christians in Gaza! Are you serious? What can they do other than get wiped out in about ten seconds? There are so few Palestinian Christians left on the ground that this is a non-starter even if Israel is willing to consider it.
By the way, I just read a report today about the cluster bombs in South Lebanon. These are internationally banned in populated areas. Israel dropped more than a million of them in the last 36 hours of the war in 2006 around towns in South Lebanon. The international community has been trying to help clean them ever since, and only 75% complete. Tens of thousands of farmers have been deprived of their livelihood because they cannot go to their fields. Those little bombs left behind have already killed over 40 Lebanese and 23 UN de-mining experts, and wounded (lost arms and legs) over 200 Lebanese and 43 UN de-miners. It is not over yet. These are not all Shiites, and all are innocent civilians, mostly children playing.
There was no need for those bombs except spite. This kind of spite does not win wars. It does not defeat Hizbullah. And, it certainly does not win friends. It only creates hate that comes back at Israel in the form of support for anyone who hurts it.
Cadmus
The irony of Bush getting no credit for the 2005 results, without which…
Gah, it’s so ridiculous how solipsistic the media is.
Maybe this is the “Barack Obama Kiss of Death” to Iran.
The majority of people in Lebanon more about the dangers of Syria, Iran and Hezbollah then the AP.
Barack Obama has been kiss up to Iran in full view of the world. This means Totalitarianism and terror tactics.
The people in Lebanon don’t listen to the AP, CNN, or other Obama propaganda mouthpieces. They know when Barack Obama endorses Iran it means Trouble.
They have seen the destructive economic disease Obama has inflicted on America. They have seen Axelrod, Clinton and Obama’s other cronies at work. They may have decided to reject “Obamaism” and Hezbollah for their own safety.
Interesting and informative article. Keep rocking.
So Hezbullah has suffered a humiliating electoral defeat, ehhh? Wow. I bet they’l just AGONIZE for almost 1.9 seconds before they carry out their next, and final, putsch…
I give this new, legitimate democratic Lebanese govt 6 months before they get chased out like Kerensky was.
Autonomous, non-Persian Lebanon is extinct.
Guys,
Avoid the Obama Derangement Syndrome.
The Lebanese think it is pro West. Why don’t you?
Obama is hanging the nutters on their own ropes of hatred.
Poker just might work.
Keep your options open.
ADE
“So Hezbullah has suffered a humiliating electoral defeat, ehhh? Wow. I bet they’l just AGONIZE for almost 1.9 seconds before they carry out their next, and final, putsch…
“I give this new, legitimate democratic Lebanese govt 6 months…”
Hezbollah depended on a coalition for political power and cover for their militia efforts. The game has been claiming the Israelis are a bigger threat to Lebanon, and then that the Saudi’s were a bigger threat, than the Syrians and in turn the Iranians.
The simple fact is the March 8th Coalition did not make the gains required to take political control of the Lebanese Parliament. In fact many of the “Christian” voters who it was hoped would vote for March 8th surprised their leaders by spurning them and voting for lists of March 14th or FPM. I think the gains made by FPM are encouraging and the Independence they have displayed should be encouraged, but tempered with muscle against Hezbollah and Iranian influence or others.
The result is pro west, because it is against the wishes of the Mullahs and against the threats of Syria and against the bullying of Hezbollah. No amount of spin can change that.
The votes have been counted, the Harriri Coalition gained ground, HizbAllah lost ground, Syria lost ground, Iran lost ground. I consider it a positive!
I pray for 12er nutcases to lose in the upcoming elections in Iran!
Marzouq out!
What happened to your brother the REDNECK muslim???
Oops, my post from earlier @ 23,should have read…
… “In fact many of the “Christian” voters who it was hoped would vote for March 8th surprised their leaders by spurning them and voting for lists of March 14th Sarcasm ON or FPM. I think the gains made by FPM are encouraging and the Independence they have displayed should be encouraged Sarcasm OFF
I really need to find a better way of expressing that.
JFSanders,
It is I, same guy. I guess I tipped my hand a bit concerning my heritage. I posted on the D-Day thread and forgot to change my name.
Salaam!