A former senior Japanese military official has openly suggested that Japan acquire nuclear weapons, following the North Korean weapons and missile test.
May 29 (Bloomberg) — North Korea’s nuclear test and missile launches have Japan confronting a topic long off-limits: acquiring atomic weapons of its own. “The threat is elevated and Japan should seek to arm itself with nuclear weapons,” former Japanese air force chief Toshio Tamogami said in one of two recent interviews. … “Tamogami’s opinion is still a minority view, but it is no longer a taboo, nor seen as an extreme one,” said Yoichi Shimada, an international-politics professor at Fukui Prefectural University in central Japan.
This came on news that former Secretary of Defense William Perry has publicly called for a viable military option against Pyongyang, should all else fail to disarm it.
Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry on Thursday said that the Obama administration has to consider possible military action against Pyongyang if other coercive measures couldn’t frustrate its nuclear ambition. “I’m not recommending military action. But somewhere along in this series of coercive actions, one can imagine an escalation, and if the ones that are less do not succeed, we have to be willing to consider the other ones,” Perry told a forum of the Council on Foreign Relations. … Perry’s comment on the DPRK nuclear crisis echoed a previous claim made by Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who hints the U.S. military has determination and capacity to deal with any threat by the DPRK.
AFP reported Perry as saying that “‘somewhere along in this series of coercive actions, one can imagine an escalation, and if the ones that are less do not succeed, we have to be willing to consider the other ones’. … Brent Scowcroft, a former national security adviser and Perry’s co-chair in a study on US nuclear policy, said he agreed with Perry, but cautioned that the use of force was fraught with the risk of unintended consequences.”
In a question and answer session, Perry said the US approach toward North Korea in the six party talks had failed, and there could be no return to business as usual.
“Having said that, I do believe that diplomacy still has a chance of success, but only if it is robust and only if its robustness includes some meaningful coercion on opponents,” he said. “I recognize that diplomacy has a much steeper hill to climb now than it did in 2003 because they now have a bomb,” he said, referring to the last crisis with North Korea. “Then we had the option of stopping the production of plutonium. Now the plutonium has been produced and it is located somewhere we know not where. So that option has now disappeared,” he said.
Perry’s assessment of the six party talks echoed that of John Bolton, who was interviewed by the Huffington Post under the title, “Is John Bolton Right About North Korea?” Bolton called the Obama “absent without leave on North Korea policy” and placed special emphasis on what Perry had independently noted: North Korea now had plutonium. It was a de facto nuclear weapons state, albeit a small one. And that might make all the difference to China.
I don’t think the North Koreans have any intention of negotiating away their nuclear weapons capability. If there was any doubt about that, this nuclear test surely puts that to rest. …I take them [China] at their word that they don’t want a nuclear North Korea. They agree with the U.S. on that. Where they disagree with the U.S. is they are afraid to do anything that would bring down the Kim Jong-il regime. In my view, China should rethink this. It is not in their interest to keep this regime in power if it is going to pursue nuclear weapons. …
Japan will have to do what it has to do. This anxiety reflects a concern about whether the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Japan is as strong as it used to be. I found it extraordinary that Secretary of State Clinton felt she had to publicly assure Japan of the U.S. commitment to their security as this crisis has unfolded. Obviously, the Japanese are worried, and that message is getting through….
The Iranians are watching this very carefully. If the U.S. and the U.N. respond ineffectively, the Iranians will draw the conclusion that if North Korea can get away with it, then they can, too. The stakes are very high.
The North Korean problem goes beyond that of single, poor country seeking its own nuclear weapon. If North Korea were an ordinary state seeking to acquire defensive weapons it would be entirely deterrable. If Pyongyang fired a missile at Japan, then North Korea would be destroyed. At the most, it its nuclear weapons would guarantee the continuation of its dysfunctional regime, something that hurts it much more than it hurts anyone else. But the problem, as both Perry and Bolton have noted, is that North Korea may be linked with the wider breakout: to Iran, Syria and Pakistan. It is a nuclear power without the characteristics of a Great Power state. It’s a rogue, and more significantly, one whose only export is trouble. Hence the problem of the plutonium begins to weigh heavily on the minds of policy makers. Even those who publicly don’t believe in an “Axis of Evil” must must find someone who defend against it.
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U.S. to Japan and N. Korea: “Let’s you and him fight.”
No way. The Messiah cannot engage in any war that does not involve a direct attack on the U.S., and even then, as Whiskey is wont to point out, there is a fairly high threshold as to how much damage he would allow us to receive before he would initiate hostilities.
All – every single one – of the people who would demand retribution for an attack are ones who wouldn’t vote for Obama anyways. And the bulk of Obama voters are people who would let someone nuke half the planet and sing Kumbaya in response. He’ll never do anything to alienate the latter, and doesn’t care if the former all die tomorrow.
The only thing that motivates China, it seems, is the thought of millions of N Koreans rushing across her border. How can that be used as a wedge to get China to put the boot on N Korea’s bellicosity? Japan, Taiwan, S Korea arming with nuclear weapons is no solution. China needs to be convinced that it is in her best interest for Kim and his crew to disappear and Korea to become a unified country once more. Is that possible?
While it’s tempting to think of President Obama as a do-nothing-peacenik, the objective effect of his Presidency has been to 1) push Australia into an unprecedented defense buildup (under a Labor government, no less); 2) cause Japan to publicly debate acquiring nuclear weapons; 3) jolt South Korea into joining a quarantine effort; and 4) get the Huffington Post to half-admit that John Bolton was right. That’s on top of getting former Secretary Perry to fire a shot across Obama’s bow.
If you look back at the 1930s, re-armament began in earnest under Chamberlain, not Churchill, as the sheer folly of his past policy became evident. The real driver of actions in the coming months will be crisis. Now one may believe that the crisis was provoked by President Obama sending absolutely the wrong signals and leaving blood in the water or one may believe that the crisis was caused by George Bush or someone else. None of that changes the fact that a crisis is a crisis. At some point it will create a huge strain on Obama’s presidency, not in the least because I think his priority is the defeat of his domestic political enemies. If the international crisis becomes bad enough, he’ll be forced into creating what is effectively a government of national unity, something that I think he is not really capable of. Yet he may be forced to do it, or delay for so long that it increases the danger.
Let’s “test” our missle defense system on their next long-range missle test. Oh, wait – we’re not going to fund that system because it’s untested and obviously not necessary to defend our allies and our own homeland. That leaves us with… a strongly worded resolution that we can’t get the UN to pass. Never mind, just paint your roof white and you can feel so much safer.
I have long noted to that if Russia and China want to let Iran and North Korea develop nukes that that would be a very cynical game and would only lead to proliferation of the more developed nations. I can not for the best of me figure out why China would be happy to see Japan and Australia armed thusly or why Russia would think that it would be acceptable that Germany and then Poland should nuke up.
What the hell could be in their reasoning? Could it be short sightedness like Shaden Freud or worse, a failure to see the consequences?
In the end looks like it is going to be a hot summer or winter for those on the other end.
For North Korea, China, Iran, Russia — it may be that their best strategy is to stand back & let Obama continue his “death of the US by a thousand self-imposed cuts”.
After all, what do the bad guys want? They want the US humiliated (check), weakened (working on it), and unable to intervene anywhere else in the world (working on that too!). We will never find out just how much money the bad guys pumped into the Obama campaign. Now they have him where they want him, why not stand back and let him accomplish their objectives for them?
“China needs to be convinced that it is in her best interest for Kim and his crew to disappear and Korea to become a unified country once more. Is that possible?”
When the music stops China probably calls its bets in and allows for a negotiated reunited Korea, with security guarantees that favor her. Oh, and it takes in Formosa as well. Nice little trade there.
It’s not in the interests of the United States or China for Japan to again become a military power. China needs to ask itself whether it wants to engage in an arms race with Japan spiced with the possibility of Mutual Assured Destruction.
It’s interesting to remember that more people died from the fire bombing of Tokyo than the nuking of Hiroshima. Remember that prior to Japan’s surrender, many of their major cities had been burned down to the ground and they had also proven willingness at Iwo Jima and Okinawa to fight to the last man.
Why did Japan surrender after Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
It wasn’t due to the civilian casulties. Japan had shown almost indifference to that. It was because nuclear weapons were something totally new. The Japanese didn’t know how to respond to nuclear weapons so they opted for what they did understand, i.e. surrender. Now create the situation where the Japanese are again a military power that is armed with modern nuclear weapons. Very scary. Keep that Pandora’s Box closed.
“At some point it will create a huge strain on Obama’s presidency, not in the least because I think his priority is the defeat of his domestic political enemies.”
Possibly Obama’s greatest weaknesses is his inability to realize that he’s his own worst enemy.
I don’t see how Japan can consider not becoming a nuclear power. Why can’t they say, “Hey, China, make this problem go away in the next 6 months or we’re going to create a nuclear arsenal”? It seems like that would get China’s attention.
Wouldn’t take them long. Maybe they have a few on the shelf already.
#9
not only Tokyo but there were more people killed the old-fashioned way in the rape of Nanjing.
RE: Wretchard@ #4
Another result is that reasonable people are now openly, and calmly, discussing the likelihood of nuclear destruction of U.S. cities. Simultaneously chilling, and sad. My oldest will start college in a year. I will probably forbid her attending any university located in a major coastal city for this reason alone.
#10 – such is the consequence of Narcissism’s blinders
I think it is in the US interest that Japan become a nuclear power. Taiwan as well.
Consider the possibility that
1) China wants N. Korea to be the “rogue” nation that it is.
2) Consider the possibility that there are factions within the Chinese government that might disagree on policy, and that while one faction may be against N. Korea having nukes, they dare not openly agree and work with the United States on this issue.
3) Consider that if US security guarantees start to collapse in the western Pacific rim(which seems increasingly likely at this moment in time), that our erstwhile allies may make their peace with China rather than risking a war that could destroy them all.
That is, I believe, the core of the Chinese power play, and with the US debt problems, we have put ourselves into this position.
4) The Greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere, headquartered in Beijing.
5) It’s right now, when the flux of power and influence are uncertain that is the scary part. At some point in the future, when China has secured her sphere of influence, the Korean problem will disapear.
However, this whole thing could spin out of control, for instance, if the US pulls some “cowboy” move and tries to re-assert itself. But we don’t have a cowboy in the White House, we have a Community Organizer.
Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.
Where would, for instance, Al Quaeda put a nuclear bomb, or maybe a third party, or even one of the ‘Axis” countries. Different scenarios for different actors.
Al Quaeda have a history of attacking softest targest available with maximum shock value. They have no compunction with killing innocent non actors. Maybe an ultra civilized European city. USA would not strike back if we lost, say, Vienna or Florence or even Rome. Easy target, easy access. Probably wouldn’t go for UK, they have Nukes and taking out a city is different than just killing people with bombs on tube.
Third party terrorists like to make significant statements and would not balk at twisting the tiger’s tail. In fact the more retaliation the better, just goes to swell the ranks of the suicidal faithful. Major city in a nuclear capable country. UK, France or USA.
A state actor who understood the lessons of the last WW, ie, it is all about logistics, would not go for a USA city. Most likely Israel. The USA is doing its best, (unknowingly) to convince them that action against Israel would go unpunished, and indeed as things stand at present, it might. Unfortunately history shows us that over and over again heads of state, often brilliant at staying in power or manipulating others are naive or mistaken about where the line in the sand is drawn. How stupid could UK be, to accede Hitler’s ambitions in Eastern Europe and go to war over Poland where it had no loss (except honour) and pretty well nothing to gain? Same for Sadam Hussein, implying by his actions that he had WMD when he no longer did just to tweak the tiger’s tail. Sooner of later Kim or Pyjamas will allow their military of sub state partners to take out a city or two in Israel, or maybe Beirut.
The world will change, shock and horror and maybe even sanctions, but only Israel, if still capable, will retaliate.
“Then we had the option of stopping the production of plutonium. Now the plutonium has been produced and it is located somewhere we know not where. So that option has now disappeared,” he (Perry) said.
So, the conservative or, if you want, the realistic/conservative blogosphere/polity said all a long that we had best act to forestall this exact thing. This kind of thing just leaves me chewing on the household rugs in frustration. How frakkin’ stoopid are the Lefties anyway?
Eggplant @ 9: “Now create the situation where the Japanese are again a military power that is armed with modern nuclear weapons. Very scary. Keep that Pandora’s Box closed.”
Too late. If they mention it publicly they are moving that direction. With the US now a feckless or worse partner, they have no choice.
wretchard @ 4: “…I think his priority is the defeat of his domestic political enemies. If the international crisis becomes bad enough, he’ll be forced into creating what is effectively a government of national unity, something that I think he is not really capable of.”
Not the defeat of political enemies but the complete elimination of them. He is insecure enough and enough of a pathological narcissist that the destruction could very well include our actual deaths. Look at what Rudd said about Ayers and the rest of the Weather Underground regarding the need for education camps to house or eliminate up to 25 million American citizens. I mean, this is not idle talk on their part, I do not believe. I think they are capable of it and moreover willing to implement that type of policy. The 0bamanation is a post turtle = he doesn’t belong there, he did not get there by himself and someone had bad intentions in putting him there.
As for him creating a “government of national unity” that follows from the above. And that prospect is truly chilling! Nice phrase which translates as just another garden variety dictatorship. All for our own good, you know.
C’mon, why do ya’ll think it is so hard to get ammo, reloading supplies or certain types of firearms? Someone suspects what may be coming down the road. (O/T – I am starting to see a small amount of 5.56 NATO, .40S&W, 9mm and .357SIG but no .380ACP not .45ACP)
Also, I read that under the latest Treasury auction the bonds are being bought by the US Treasury. That tells me that there are not enough folks out there in the wide world willing to purchase US debt. Capital is fleeing the US. I disagree with a lot of what Thomas Freidman says but the electronic herd (euphemism for foreign money investors) seems to be uninterested in investing here. That is a truly bad sign and the worst may be yet to come.
If The ROE in Korea for American forces is fire if fired upon then the whole war could be fought and finished by in theater assets before Obama or Hillary get that 3 am call.
It could be over that fast and yet we could be in trenches under fire for the next ten years!
Only the Gods of war determine that.
I don’t doubt that the Japanese have assembled the needed components for several (if not a lot more) nukes. Given the fact that it was obvious that Obama was the likely winner as early as a year ago they have had lots of time to get ready.
How many of the other nations that once felt secure under our protection in the past are looking at the world with a new and very frightening perspective? What commitments and/or compromises are they willing to make to assure their survival?
The Nork’s missles are short-range and wildly innaccurate, anything fired at Japan would be lucky to hit the islands at all. This would provide an excuse for the Japanese to openly arm-up and reply as they see fit. It would be a suicidal move for the Norks, but Kim is nuts so don’t count it out.
The question not being asked is this; If the UN etc cannot prevent the “rouge” nations from getting (and displaying) nuke capability how can they reasonably ask the stable nations from gaining the same capabilities? What does a world where there are thirty or so nuke powers of various sizes look like?
Has anybody at the UN read Richard’s “The Three Conjectures”?
Interesting times indeed.
Maybe this post should be named:
“The 3:10 to Alamagordo.”
By the way what is the significance of the title of this post? When I google “The noonday train” this post comes up as does another belmont club post from 5 years ago about the death of Arafat.
I am constantly amazed by the breadth of Wretchard’s cultural references, from a last second shot by Jerry West more than 30 years ago to The Search for Greenmantle to lots of others where I have no clue.
If I were Japan, and I saw the disrepsect with which Obama treats Isreal, I would acquire my own defense options, because if it comes down to it, Obama isn’t going to do anything great to save Japan if it means he loses approval rating and has to put in hard work. Japan should get its own nukes, and set off an arms race that will result in the dstruction of our planet- that is the correct response to Obama as President.
>>I do believe that diplomacy still has a chance of success, but only if it is robust and only if its robustness includes some meaningful coercion on opponents”
–William Perry, former Sec of Defense during Clinton disaster
A marvelous example of Democrat “logic.” Do tell us, Mr. Perry: What, exactly, do you believe will succeed in “coercing” North Korea? Bribery–millions of tons of food aid and hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel oil promised by Mr. Clinton–sure didn’t work. Sanctions are an open joke. And everyone in the world knows that Obama would never order military action.
So…seems to me your statements are as empty as Pelosi’s head. Certainly you *wish* the Norks would yield to the effete charms of “diplomacy,” but here’s a shock: It ain’t gonna happen.
All of this–and the outcome that has yet to play out–was readily foreseeable as long ago as 1990. Oh well. It’s just sad that the civilized world will essentially end because of the refusal of Liberals/Democrats to see human nature for what it is.
NK is taking this seriously they shot another short range missile that is a new type according to rumor. They are taking this opportunity to test as much as they can. Dafe bet with Obama and intimidating SK in not attempTing an interdiction.
NK whatever their goal is playing this right. China may want to reevaluate in light of Japan’s response. How much the Chinese can do without an invasion is a guess.
Personally I do not see a threat to the contimental US but when brinkmanship games are played sometimes events get out of control. I do have concerned about the US troops in SK.
I believe this whole thing is a propaganda effort that will culminate with the announcement of Kim Jong Il’s successor.
The odds are high that all the pyrotechnics will result in some gesture from the US to North Korea. A gesture meant to lower tensions; and which will be spun by Kim’s propagandist as another great victory against the West.
And then it will let it be known that one of the architects of this “victory”, working behind the scenes, etc.; will turn out to the Kim’s annointed successor. Instant credibility-in-a-box, and would echo Kim’s own legitimization to suceed his father.
My apologies if this has been posted before, I unfortunately lack the time to read comments, or indeed to read as much of this excellent web site as I would want.
While I’ve argued here previously that the rest of the world needs to rediscover their survival instinct, I certainly didn’t wish to see dozens of nation-states considering developing nuclear weapons.
I believe the best course of action would have been for the U.S. to gradually make its allies aware of the need to develop self-defense capability. This wouldn’t be sparking a worldwide nuclear arms race if Obama had remained strong and committed to the defense of our allies and our national security, as well as taken a hard line on Iran and Nork nukes.
Obama, instead of maintaining the “peace through strength” that has served us pretty damn well for the last 30 years, has opted for weakness. Bowing to foreign leaders. Apologizing for past realpolitik. Openly siding with the Palestinians against Israel. Publicly vowing to discontinue missile defense systems. Requesting an open and restarted dialogue with Iran, and getting rejected. The list goes on.
The sum of all these choices has left the U.S. image tarnished; Obama has not shown he will be a terrible enemy to those who choose to attack the U.S. or its allies. Obama has shown himself to be a Carter-Chamberlain redux, combining the worst qualities of both men.
So instead of seeing our allies’ increased commitment to national defense, supervised by the U.S. military, we are seeing a worldwide panic and rush to nuclear arms. Since Wretchard mentioned Chamberlain, I’ll quote Churchill: “They had a choice between dishonor and war; they have chosen dishonor, but they will get war.”
I think Richard is at least partly right: the succession is underway and the Party must be concerned about such a moment.
On the other hand, I continue to believe that nuclear weapons proliferation – caused by Russia and China – is not primarily for the purpose of fighting and winning a nuclear war against the West. Only a fool – and our enemies are not fools – would believe that there is any martial spirit in the West capable of pre-emptively nuking anyone, for any reason. The Soviets did not believe we would nuke them or that our European forces were for offense. Not did Khruschev intend to nuke us from Cuba: he intended to frighten us from Cuba, and in return get Cuba as a permanent base. Evidence exists that Kennedy was assassinated because he was only a few months away from launching another invasion of Cuba in a recent book arguing that he was assassinated by the mob.
Obviously I don’t know what the game is here, but the NORK-Tehran axis makes absolutely no sense without reference to a common ally – Russia. What could a Stalinist Potemkin state have in common with the Islamic Persian Revolution? So I do not believe that nuke capability is limited to regime-protection. And if it is so limited, why would Russia and China create nuclear weapons states on their own borders, the cause of further nuclear weapons states in their own neighborhoods? That would be as utterly stupid as it is utterly predictable.
So the purpose is probably something more like: “Do what we want, or we will nuke you, you gloating little narcissists.” Very slowly. Over time. Now that the media/public perception machine will not favor war nor allow those who favor war to escape character assassination, and with our troops diverted to barbarous Araby and the Hindua Kush, and with Obi-Won and his masculine wife in office – isn’t it precisely the time when the West can be forced to acquiesce to some serious long-range objectives of the SCO powers?
I’d think so. I think that Korean unification + Taiwan is a clever thought. I wonder how thoroughly penetrated the South Korean government is with Chinese/Nork agents.
But if Japan remilitarizes, so what? No Japanese could possibly believe that that island could survive a nuclear war and blockade for more than 5 minutes. China knows it has nothing to worry about – its population is absolutely stoked on national feeling and the Japanese have a sclerotic shopping mall regime even more impotent than ours. They have nothing like the Divine Emperor spirit and momentum of 1895-1905 victory that they had before 1931.
Does anybody here have the know-how to figure just how powerful a missle could be packed into a standard shipping container? I was thinking range and lift capacity. Would this sort of thing have the reach to hit a target from outside territorial waters? How much support would it need (disguised in another container on the same ship)?
Just a scary thought pointed out by a friend, perhaps they don’t need an ICBM or the ability to carry it across a border, just a decent, reliable short-range missle and a “Q-Ship” launch platform.
Some good discussion herein.
However, I don’t hear an understanding of what an intelligent nuclear _strike_ in USA would render. AQ wasn’t and isn’t about killing innocents, unless that’s the only target they can get to. The WTC strike was an _economic_ hit. It took down one of the worlds central financial hubs. The next one would be similarily targeted. It has been simulated and studied: the right USA commercial target would _stop_ the flow of goods for >1 month; not just intra but inter-national. The cost of such a hit, (my est. 13T to USA), esp. during our current financial crisis would be, well… overwhelming. The peaceful religion can destroy our culture, at least as we know it. Don’t be blinded by arrogance.
anton – This is a favorite link of mine. What is scary about this story is that it is entirely plausible. Note the small cruise missiles delivered by rogue nations via tramp freighters or smallish boats/ships. Also, you can substitute UAV for small cruise missiles now. Iran has them. Marry to commercially available GPS systems that can interface to an OTS processor w/USB connections that is plenty rugged to withstand takeoff stresses of a UAV, some 3rd year engineering work to make the guidance interface and you have the poor man’s cruise missile.
http://www.therant.us/staff/kraft/10242006.htm
By the way what is the significance of the title of this post? When I google “The noonday train” this post comes up as does another belmont club post from 5 years ago about the death of Arafat.
This may not be what Wretchard had in mind, but in “High Noon,” the same noon train that was bringing Frank Miller into Hadleyville was also, in its departure, the absolute last chance for anyone who wanted to get the aitch out of town before the shooting erupted.
Helen Ramirez, the ex-girlfriend of both the hero and the villain, takes the train. Amy Kane (Grace Kelly) very nearly does so but at the last minute changes her mind and returns to town to help Kane fight the bad guys. Good thing, too — without her help he almost surely would have been killed.
The gunfight in “High Noon” also spelled what was basically the end of civilization as they had known it in Hadleyville. The cowardly citizens, in allowing Kane to face the Miller Gang alone, had essentially surrendered to the barbarians, thus proving themselves unworthy of the loyalty and sacrifice of a man like Kane. Which is why he throws his tin star into the dust at the very end.
(I will have to disagree with The Duke on the ending. He thought it was “unAmerican.” I thought it was the only ending that made dramatic sense, given all that came before. A great, great movie.)
(bogie wheel = always good for a movie reference, if not much else!)
I am constantly amazed by the breadth of Wretchard’s cultural references
Ditto. One of the things that makes this such a great blog. Wretchard stirs the discussions on so many levels.
One interesting likelyhood, I believe, of Japan opting for nuclear weapons is that they could create an arsenal fairly quickly, compared to Iran, N. Korea, and even Pakistan. I wouldn’t be surprised if Japan could have an Israel-sized arsenal in less than 5 years from the word “go.”
The implications of that would be that N. Korea would find itself facing a formidable nuclear foe many times as capable as itself, right across the Sea of Japan.
A nuclearized Taiwan is no longer feasible, as the mainland Chinese would consider this an unacceptable provocation.
As to a nuclear Japan being “scary,” why so? By current standards, modern Japan is a pillar of civilization, not a rogue state.
Roderick Reilly said:
“As to a nuclear Japan being “scary,” why so? By current standards, modern Japan is a pillar of civilization, not a rogue state.”
I agree that modern Japan is a pillar of civilization and most certainly not a rogue state. I would also add that Japanese culture is among the highest on the planet. The city of Kyoto is a jewel and one of my favorites to tour. Now having said all of that, violence and militarism are deeply ingrained in the Japanese psyche. Deep down inside, the Japanese still want to be samarai warriors lead by shoguns. It’s a cultural quirk. For the last fifty years this innate aggressiveness has been redirected towards excellence in commerce, science and engineering. It would be a very good thing to keep it that way.
Following should be a link to a RAND Corp paper on the consequences of a nuke going off in Long Beach CA. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR391/
Obama WANTS defeat of the US, because he overestimates his power.
Obama’s power rests on the feminized, female-oriented Media (very few men read newspapers, watch Network News, or care about Oprah or the View or People or Newsweek). It rests further on the shrinking group of SWPL White yuppies, male and female (but female-dominated and oriented) and Blacks, Hispanics, and Gays, etc. The identity politics groups. Who only win when White Males lose.
Domestically, Obama has guaranteed White Male opposition to him, because all employment is government or government directed, with Affirmative Action discrimination against White Men and in favor of identity groups (Women, Blacks, Gays, Hispanics, etc.)
Add to that a foreign policy disaster: North Korea invades South Korea, and takes US military survivors hostage, parades them around as supply chains collapse (South Korea is an intimate part of the global supply chain in electronics and other areas). Or Pakistan goes Taliban, and we get a super-sized Alamo in Afghanistan. Or a nuke goes off in a Western City (suddenly there’s an exodus from Cities and people espouse more conservative social views).
Obama’s election was a desperate attempt by global, feminized, SWPL Yuppie elites to turn back the clock to 9/10. It depended on the view that Globalization allowed a global elite to exercise power (which it does). It ignored that a global system also means that isolationism and domestic politics are non-starters. Obama’s economic policy DEPENDS on a stable, non-shocked Global System. Remove South Korea or even the ability of firms to rely on South Korea as a global supplier or electronics and services, and the whole thing collapses. Everyone from the Simpsons (the cartoon is animated in South Korea) to Government Motors (South Korea supplies critical electronic components for GM/Chrysler and other auto firms) simply stops being able to produce.
Obama cannot and will not (he’s NEVER been capable of it) create a “National Unity” government in the face of shocks, any more than any leader (Brown, Sarkozy, etc.) elected by the global elite can; and indeed most other nations have rejected global elitism (Olmert replaced by Bibi, return of Berlusconi, etc.) with nationalists in one form or another.
He’s likely to order Canute-like Hope and Change barrages, with the US media, towards foreign opponents who just don’t care about that stuff. Be so ineffective that he’s impeached and convicted, and a Nationalist government put into place (obviously Biden would have to be removed along with Obama’s cabinet and Pelosi, etc.) We are looking at an “Extra Constitutional Crisis” as the political global elite class simply fails in it’s application of female power (social approval disapproval, being “nice” or ignoring, etc.) which has REAL POWER but only up to a point, and only for men/states/peoples invested deeply into the globalist system.
France, for example needing global capital, trade, tourism, power in global talk shops, needs female-oriented approval for it’s people, policies, and culture. North Korea does not, it only cares about guns and who has them pointed directly at them.
IN 1976 I heard a Japanese professor give a seminar at Caltech on Japan’s nuclear policy. He was an expert on their defence system. Japan has put in place all the components needed to built compact plutonium nukes within a year. That was in 1976 and their technology has gotten stronger.
A Navy captain told us at a meeting at the San Diego Navy lab around 14 years ago that North Korea has the logists to go all the way to Pusan and that CINCPAC was planning for a North Korean invasion of the south.
The South Koreans have been playing an appeasement game with NK. I know of a number of children of South Korean generals who move to the University of Missouri to get degrees and to stay in the middle of the US.
The top brass in the Pentagon can not fathom a nuclear attack from a commercial ship off our coast because we do not do that. Most of the US admirals I have met are very political. The Navy is the most political of all our services. Their leadership is aimed at moving up in the system and then cashing in when retired on their connections.
Eggplant:
I still don’t buy the “Japan may be scary underneath” assumption. After all, I’m still waiting for the rise of the Fourth Reich in Japan’s former partner in crime. Oh, and yeah, there are still a lot of people who harbor this atavistic and irrational fear of the “German psyche.”
Why am I reminded of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0hk9vaqWUg
Heaven help us all.
Roderick Reilly said:
“Oh, and yeah, there are still a lot of people who harbor this atavistic and irrational fear of the “German psyche.””
Having lived in Germany for three years, I have to be counted among those who have an (ir)rational fear of the “German psyche” or more precisely the “Prussian psyche”. I emphasize the Prussian psyche because I have no issues with the Bavarians, Austrians or the Swiss. The Bavarians in particular are a nice bunch of people.
Unfortunately there is a cold hardness to the Prussians that I never liked. It’s real easy to see them running a death camp like Auschwitz.
To the Prussian’s credit, they tend to be good at what they set their minds to, e.g. the Prussians have produced some first class mathematicians, scientists and engineers. The Prussians also tend to be excellent soldiers as we found out in WW-I and WW-II.
Though literally worlds apart, the Prussians and Japanese are remarkably alike in many ways.
“Obama’s election was a desperate attempt by global, feminized, SWPL Yuppie elites to turn back the clock to 9/10.”
Over the past nine years, I’ve often thought that much of the opposition to W and conservatism in general was undergirded by the desire to return to the lotus-eating days of the mid to late 1990′s when it was possible for left, right, and center alike to believe that Fukuyama’s end of history had actually occurred.
When the 9/11 attacks happened, it was apparent to anyone with intelligence and maturity that the world had beeen engaged in delusion (with rare but notable exceptions). To many of the rest, someone needed to receive the blame for the delusion being shattered. Like the child who holds his hands to his ears yelling “La-la-la, I can’t HEAR you!”.
Someone had to get the blame for disturbing the lotus fantasy. W, and by extension, the sane center-right, were the recipients. Far easier to aim your ire at having been disturbed from your reverie at a target with which you are familiar (and had been trained, Gramscian style, to hate by the education industry), than to go through the difficult work of learning about the new threat and what must be done to stop it.
All bogeymen must be morphed into white male Christian heterosexual capitalists, for the sake of ease and convenience, in order not to disturb the narrative. Or so it is to a leftist.
I believe any of the better-known and popular cruise missiles or anti-shipping missiles could be delivered to strike range on the open oceans, packed in a shipping container, based on the published dimensions. These would probably fit into standardized commercial 20’ or 40’ length shipping containers. But it’s likely that launching platforms would have to be adapted or purpose built for those.
I would be surprised if that hasn’t already been done somewhere.
I don’t know if countries other than the US deploy Tomahawk missiles, but the Chinese supply versions of their Yangji to several navies. It would be surprising if Sweden and France scrupled against selling theirs. India has spent years and billions of Rupees in a joint venture w Russia developing the world’s only (not yet operational) supersonic cruise missile system – “Brahmos.” As part of their sales pitch they like to point out that when the U.S. attacked a supposedly confirmed position of Osama bin Laden, the subsonic tomahawk cruise missiles took two hours to target. By the time they arrived, Osama had been gone for an hour.
“Rianovosti” in an article posted 06-12-2006 said,
” Work is currently underway to create aircraft- and submarine-based BrahMos missiles.
The airborne version could be installed on the Sukhoi-30MKI air superiority fighters of the Indian Air Force.
Experts estimate that India might purchase up to 1,000 BrahMos missiles for its Armed Forces in the next decade, and export 2,000 to third countries during the same period.”
Any of these likely require some well trained personnel for maintenance, installation, targeting, and launch. A “suitcase nuke” might conceivably be delivered by a couple of hopped up morons, if they can avoid being spotted and stopped. But building a bunch (it would *HAVE* to be more than a single unit!) of independently deployable, camouflaged missile launching shipping containers, with crew trained to unlimber them, and launch —- all that seems to require the support and full cooperation of a nation-state, not just a handful of fanatics.
Of course, I welcome learned commentary to pick holes in my musings. God knows, it’s not based on anything but publicly available articles. Here are the results of a quick search on keywords “cruise missile dimensions” and “used shipping containers for sale” [my compilation of data]:
– - – - – - – - – - – - – - – -
Tomahawk (US), Length 6.25 m, Payload – 450kg HE, Range – 1600km
Exocet (France) Length – 4.7 m, Payload – 165 kg HE, Range – 180 km
Yingji (PRC) Length – 6.392 m Payload – 165 kg HE Range – 180-500 km (depending on variant)
RBS-15 (Sweden) Length – 4.33 m Payload – 200kg HE Range – 200 km
(The Tomahawk can carry W80 200 kt nuclear warhead, but U.S. has decommissioned any of that configuration as part of its commitment to Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty. Presumably any of these cruise / anti-ship missiles could be adapted to a Kiloton-range warhead.)
Brahmos (India-Russia) Length -~>10m, Payload – 300 kg , Range – 290 km
The technology has been available for a long time. The challenge for most of the people that would want to nuke the U.S. is putting a team together and all the parts so the assault can be “hidden in plain sight.”
Most of the players who would want to nuke the US are the little cowards who would never dare take on another country in a toe-to-toe slugfest — the same miserable goat-fornicators who murder children and use teenaged girls for human shields when they aren’t busy raping them or killing them to maintain the family “Honor” after they’ve been raped.
Now that they have a sympathetic administration in the U.S., they’re busy debating with each other the merits of different plans. I think they’re only waiting to sort out whether it’s better to claim credit, or try to mis-direct like a cheap magician to put the blame on someone else. Maybe sow dissension among shaky allies.
If Korea is struggling to explode low yield weapons with China next door, how on earth is Pakistan building a large and sophisticated arsenal?
Mad Fiddler,
Look up “Skybolt”. The Russians and the Indians are only 45 years behind the curve.
Pakistan may be building a “large” arsenal, but who can tell if it is “sophisticated”? Or if it even works?
In the very early 1960′s a friend took us as guests to watch several launchings / demonstrations of the Regulus I and Reg II missiles at the Pacific Missile Range facility at Point Mugu, CA.
Sounds like the Skybolt system was a link in the geneology from those to the Tomahawk.
Thanks for the heads up, Mr. Nigma. >;-D
“At some point it will create a huge strain on Obama’s presidency, not in the least because I think his priority is the defeat of his domestic political enemies.”
In an odd way this parallels the earliest stages of Bush’s presidency when people were worried that he would be an inward-looking isolationist president. And then of course the world came knocking on the door and his Presidency is likely to be remembered mainly for his foreign policy decisions.
It will be interesting to see what external event finally derails Obama’s plans and how he reacts to it. It’s hard to believe that there won’t be one.
I suspect the Chinese would NUCH rather impose sanctions on NK than see Japan develop its Bomb. The Japanese don’t wamt one having a greater understand of its effects than anyine else. Let the powers that surround them – China, Japan, Russia & SK here take the lead & let the US just back their play.
So what if the Japs build a bomb. They have failed to reproduce or to admit a successor population.
Now they are old so will probably lack aggression.
Soon they won’t be at all.
@.30 dan
You sure do make some gross Cold War assumptions. Actually the Soviets did think we would nuke them.
And they would have lost decisively because all their ICBMs were liquid fuelled so couldn’t really sit on the pad hot. They had 6 ICBM sites and so would have only been able to launch six missiles before the sites were destroyed by an American first strike of hundreds of missiles.
“Nor did Khruschev intend to nuke us from Cuba”. Rubbish. Although the Soviet Union lacked a credible ICBM nuclear deterrent (we didn’t know that at the time) they had good intermediate range nuclear missiles.
They needed to base them in Cuba from where they could reach the entire east coast of the US to restore some measure of nuclear parity. Their nightmare was that the US would find out how vulnerable the Soviets were.