“Words matter”, but they aren’t everything
VOA reports that North Korea will take military action against South Korea if it cooperates with the US in attempting to inspect ships which may contain WMD materials.
North Korea says it will take military action against South Korea if it participates in a U.S.-led effort to intercept ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction, as tensions increase over Pyongyang’s nuclear test earlier this week. In a statement Wednesday, Pyongyang reaffirmed that it would consider Seoul’s decision an act of war and will no longer be bound by the 1953 armistice that ended the three-year Korean War. Seoul announced Tuesday it would participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative, which involves intelligence sharing and naval coordination to prevent nuclear and other illegal weapons from being transported. The announcement came one day after the North Korean nuclear test.
The UK Telegraph explained that until recently, South Korea had relegated itself to observer status the Proliferation Security Initiative, a Bush-era device for attempting to quarantine North Korea, in order to avoid provoking the North.
Until Tuesday, South Korea had retained an “observer status” in the PSI in an attempt not to provoke its Northern neighbour, whose government had said earlier this year that any decision to join would be considered an “act of war’”. The move by South Korea is largely symbolic, since it has made clear that existing shipping agreements and protocols with the North would not be affected by the move. However Pyongyang, which has test-fired six missiles since Monday’s nuclear test, has used the decision as a pretext to further ramp up tension on the Peninsular as it seeks to force concessions from the international community.
In a related development, UPI reports that “North Korea, continuing its aggressive nuclear posture, may have restarted its Yongbyon nuclear reprocessing facility, a source told Yonhap news agency.” Radio Free Liberty called North Korea’s actions a “challenge to the Obama doctrine”. The Examiner says, “Obama looks for an unclenched hand – gets the finger”. Radio Free Liberty explained why North Korea’s provocation in the face of Obama’s conciliation is so disturbing.
U.S. President Barack Obama came to office promising to explore ways to talk with countries hostile to the United States — such as North Korea and Iran — in what was regarded as a stark contrast to the Bush administration’s labeling them as parts of an “axis of evil.” He reiterated that approach just a week after taking office in January, pledging that “if countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” But on May 25, North Korea appeared to give a stunning reply. It conducted its second nuclear test — its first during Obama’s term — and produced an explosion experts compare with those that flattened Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.
The New York Times says of the Obama administration that “as much as they understood this was going to be an issue, they weren’t ready for a nuclear test in May,’ Marcus Noland, an expert on North Korea at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said of Mr. Obama and his advisers. ‘They’re in a situation now where they have to contain and manage a crisis.’ … Of the options still on the table, the measures that the Obama administration seems most drawn to would constrain the North Korean government’s access to funds. These steps, which would be carried out by the Treasury Department either openly or covertly, would be directed at banks in Europe and the Middle East that are used by the Kim family, officials said.” Whether North Korea will respond to such pressures is open to question. A North Korean academic, writing in the Asia Times says that Obama may have accidentally insulted Kim Jong Il by calling into question his right to launch a long range missile across the Pacific Ocean and that it proved as “hostile” to Pyongyang as the George Bush. The academic Kim Myong Chol says that “Plan B” may now be in effect. Plan B is a Dr. Evil-like plan to threaten the world.
Plan B envisages the DPRK going it alone as a fully fledged nuclear weapon-armed state, with a military-first policy, and then growing into a mighty and prosperous country. It will put the policy of seeking reconciliation with a tricky US, a helpless superpower with a crippled economy that is losing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, on the back burner. The DPRK is equipped with all types of nuclear warheads, atomic, neutron and hydrogen, and their means of delivery puts the whole of the USA within effective range.
The Times of London wrote on April 24, 2009: “The world’s intelligence agencies and defense experts are quietly acknowledging that North Korea has become a fully fledged nuclear power with the capacity to wipe out entire cities in Japan and South Korea.” The announced vow to quit six-party talks, restart nuclear facilities and conduct additional nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests is a clear message that the Kim Jong-il administration’s decision to shift to plan B is irretrievable.
Whether these blood-curdling emanations from North Korea are simply more posturing or the demented but serious actions of a dictator in poor health with nothing to lose remains to be seen. But it highlights the underlying problem in any attempt to contain North Korea. Behind any serious diplomacy there must always remain the threat of a credible use of force. North Korea has stormed forward, less timidly perhaps when facing Bush than Obama, but forging ahead all the same, because he calculated that America would not risk stopping him by military action. Dashiell Hammett captured the essence of the problem in his classic, The Maltese Falcon.
Spade: If you kill me, how are you gonna get the bird? And if I know you can’t afford to kill me, how are you gonna scare me into giving it to you?
Gutman: Well, sir, there are other means of persuasion besides killing and threatening to kill.
Spade: Yes, that’s, that’s true. But – they’re none of ‘em any good unless the threat of death is behind them – do you see what I mean? If you start something, I’ll make it a matter of your having to kill me or call it off.
Gutman: (chuckling) That’s an attitude, sir, that calls for the most delicate judgment on both sides. ‘Cause as you know, sir, in the heat of action, men are likely to forget where their best interests lie and that their emotions carry them away.
Spade: Then the trick from my angle is to make my play strong enough to tie you up, but not make you mad enough to bump me off against your better judgment.
Gutman: By gad, sir, you are a character.
The North Korean midget dictator simply believes that the sheriff won’t shoot. Kim Jong Il is a bad character; a police character but he is a character. The challenge facing the Obama doctrine isn’t directed against an idea: it is aimed squarely at what Kim thinks is the new President’s lack of it.
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hey
talk about the money-line…
“Obama looks for an unclenched hand – gets the finger”.
as the Black Moses gins up more social enegineering and appointment of lightweights to the highest court of the land, the NORKs and other toads smell weakness. its just gimme, gimme, gimme, from the affirmative action chorus, as the ship of state is heading towards the falls.
rough to watch from overseas. sorta like the Carter Period on steriods.
I’m not a geopolitical strategist. I don’t even play one on TV.
But it seems a bigger game is afoot than the predictable belligerence of NK’s lunocracy — and those behind the the game are in Beijing. China wants a Monroe Doctrine-style hegemony in East Asia, and sees the timing excellent for such a move. [Sidenote: Mao thought leaving Taiwan a 'renegade province' would be a useful rallying point for Chinese people.]
I’ve long thought Zhongnianhai had a veto over anything truly dangerous or disruptive NK might do, and NK has served as both a reliable thorn in the side for successive U.S. administrations and a useful bogeyman with which to rattle the world.
Japan and South Korea now do the bulk of their trading with China and both nation’s long term economic interests are tied to the vast potential of the Chinese market. With the West and the U.S. shown powerless to stop NK shenanigans, the U.S facing financial difficulties in which China is deeply involved, and the Obama administration adopting a largely supine defense posture, Beijing is in a position to offer (illusory) security to South Korea and Japan, by ‘defanging’ NK in exchange for pledges by both trading partners not to go nuclear.
We once thought Tokyo, Seoul, Canberra and maybe even Taiwan (and eventually, India) would form the forward bases of free market democracy in Asia. But Japan and SK have sized up Washington and will likely make their accommodations with Beijing.
This is what I think NK has been about, all along.
End of two cents.
Kim is nuts, but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of being cunning. He has taken his measure of Obama and thinks he can push the envelope. It now remains to be seen if Hope-n-Change can develop a proper response. I’m pretty sure that more talking won’t work.
Kim is crazy enough that he is willing to play the “military action” card. He has little regard for the lives of his people, the price in blood isn’t a factor in his calculations outside of where he thinks we will crack due to casualties. He is pretty sure that the West doesn’t have the will and, after a few weeks of interdicting his sea-traffic will wander off as per the “no-fly” zones in Iraq. The worst feature of a UN Resolution is that they have the life-span of a fruit fly.
What needs to be done is the clear statement that we (ie the US, because nobody else really matters when it come to this kind of thing) will not tolerate this crack-pot playing with nukes and ICBMs. We will destroy any missle that we consider a threat and any facility that we think may be involved in nuke or missile production. This should be immediately followed by strikes against all of those targets. One carrier task force on each coast and some Aegis cruisers to interdict any Norko launches would probably be enough to do the job.
word up!!
This guy does this kind of thing every year or so. He needs some attention.
The Norks have tested a second bomb, continue testing missiles, and threaten military action if their ships are intercepted and inspected on the high seas.
So either (1) they have working weapons which they plan to ship– somewhere- and don’t want intercepted; or (2) they want everyone to think (1) is true.
It is a good sales strategy for a weapons dealer. Let your customers know you can deliver the goods. Seeing how Iranian ships and truck convoys have recently been intercepetd, the customer(s) don’t want to pick up the goods, they want them delivered.
So does the US/ Japan/ South Korea/ Israel call Kim’s bluff?
Interesting how the concerns of Japan, South Korea and Israel coincide. How well have Israeli/ Japanese and South Korean intelligence penetrated North Korea and Japan?
And what does China do if Japan and South Korea go nuclear rather than trust a security guarantee from China or the US?
The New York Times says of the Obama administration that “as much as they understood this was going to be an issue, they weren’t ready for a nuclear test in May,’ Marcus Noland, an expert on North Korea at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
The oh-so-aware Marcus Noland should forget about transmitting for a while, and turn on his receiver. He could have learned from John Bolton on May 10th that a NK nuclear event was imminent.
I think that both the NK and the Chicoms know that Obama doesn’t have the stones to oppose them with anything more potent that the UN frown beams.
Bill
http://willstuff.wordpress.com
For whatever reason, and following from the NYT’s article, it seems unlikely that the current administration or anyone else will do anything but nibble at the edges of the problem. Freeze an asset here, make a gesture there, but really do nothing substantive to stop North Korea. I think the basic problem is that we are now looking at a breakout. The final, in-your-face collapse of the nonproliferation regime. Kim Jong Il has just buried Obama’s dream of “a world without nuclear weapons” on the White House lawn.
This is the fundamental crisis. In a little while, perhaps not very long from now, there will be similar challenges. From Iran certainly; and perhaps Pakistan will start selling to all comers. North Korea may start selling to non-state actors. Why not? If they haven’t stopped him at this point, will they do it when he has Tokyo and Honolulu in the crosshairs? The day of the exclusive nuclear club died yesterday. It had been expiring for a long time, but it finally climbed into the grave and shoveled itself in.
With this turn, we may now be palpably closer to the nuclear car bomb. It’s not there yet, but with North Korea on the loose and the sheriff impotent, the danger of nuclear terrorism is no longer unthinkable. One response will be to let the nonproliferation regime collapse entirely. If the US can no longer be counted on to deter the tyrants of the world, then other nations may feel themselves free to do so. And it’s not Kim that did this: the West did it to itself, by progressively undermining it’s authority until it has reached this nadir. It was Kim’s very insignificance that underlined the totality of the collapse. Because if Barack Obama can’t stop the ludicrous madman from a starveling nation from threatening the world, then the system is well and truly broken.
Besides all the worry about Warheads R US sales, by Kim, there are problems closer to home, which the Nork threat to the South Koreans should make us think on. In the event the balloon ever does go up again on the 38th Parallel…we and the ROKs start at a serious disadvantage.
Air power is not as useful as in the first war, because there is probably, to a degree, effective immunity for the Norks as to air operations over and on North Korean territory.
Seoul is in easy range of heavy artillery or IRBM.
If Kim proves to have the abililty to marry a warhead to a missile, I wonder if the Japanese will risk allowing the US free use of Japanese ports and bases? In general, Nork nukes mean that the ROK/US alliance has lost much of the advantage that its greater economic and military capabilities should confer on it. A similar sort of dynamic should obtain when the Iranians show they have a nuclear weapon.
Deterrence can work for tne Norks, but to what degree can it work for us? How can we effectively threaten, with our own nuclear capabilities a basket case country with a regime that cares nothing for its subjects or assets?
All this is particularly pertinent considering the Norks’ (and probably others) evident assessment of the character of the new president.
The North Koreans and the Ayatollahs are laughing at him. They’re pelting him with tomatoes and rotten eggs. They’re openly contemptuous. Both the Iranian President and Kim Jong Il have said the same curious thing: they’re not going to talk to him any more. It’s true that Ahmadinajad will make an exception: to debate him in front of the UN, but that’s more of a jibe and backhanded slap than a serious offer. Imagine the spectacle. Next thing you know Kim Jong Il will challenge the President to a mud-wrestling contest.
Now whatever anyone thinks of Barack Obama, these are ultimately insults aimed at the United States of America, and indeed at all civilized people. And due to the seriousness of events, there’s no room for gloating, because these maniacs, though ridiculous, can kill. We’re not even into the second hundred days yet and the challenges keep mounting. At some point the West has to pick itself up and act. “Words matter”, but they’re not everything.
jim in va:
You ask: “And what does China do if Japan and South Korea go nuclear rather than trust a security guarantee from China or the US?”
Since China is the largest market for both countries, probably a lot of economic bullying — which we’ll see a lot more of as China’s influence grows. Warnings will preceed Chinese state visits to Europe that unflattering editorials or too many papier mache puppets of Hu Jintao may result in the loss of industrial contracts worth billions of Euros and thousands of jobs. Europe will find out how cheap its criticism of the U.S. really was
Of course, in the new, post-proliferation-control Wild West Wretchard describes, Japan and SK could simply promise not to build them, but build them anyway.
And that’s how you truly get a big war…because the contemptuous tomato and rotten eggs throwers overdo it and drive the object of their contempt into making a stand.
But the aggressors miss the change in victim behavior because the victim refused to make a stand early on, at the sensible place and time, and, finally goaded, picks the worst possible time, place and cause to finally stand. Specifically, I’m thinking of Neville Chamberlain and Daladier refusing to stand to help relatively powerful Czechoslovakia at Munich, then making a fight later over weaker Poland, when Hitler was stronger. (Overused analogy but possibly applicable here).
The truth could be more prosaic. The North Koreans and the Iranians are openly contemptuous of the half-black man. I’m sure that Obama was not prepared for the level of disdain displayed by these two nations. The white man has been dominant for centuries, he is still shown some deference. But to be ordered around by a black man must touch a visceral cord among these people; unschooled as they are in PC.
hey
ivan…spot on evaluation.
ya thing gulf arabs that had slaves from east africa in the house when we were involved with the Mercury Space program take Obunga seriously. First Gulf state with diplomatic relations with USA was Oman. The relations were based on sale of slaves in NYC. and most came from Obunga’s neck of the woods-Zanzibar, etc..
as an arab technocrat told me today…the idea of ”that Obama,(Obama interchangeable with lots of other pitiless titles…) taking apart the United States, piece by piece with no response by the people, is sick” and this is a guy that threw out of his office when Bush invaded Iraq !!!!
we are less that Britan at this point. We are a parody of what we stood for less than 12 months ago.
Hans Brix! Christopher Hirr! What you doing here?!
First the US needs to get all its ground troops out of South Korea. All they are is hostages now and they help interfere with air or naval action.
Second the South Koreans are not our friends. They will always side with the North Koreans over us. Ethnic and “national” solidarity come before freedom.
In my dreams we pull out of Korea, take whatever action is necessary to eliminate the threat from the north, and let the Chinese and Koreans deal with the refugees. They can’t make it to our continent so who cares?
14. Ivan: You are so right. Norko and Iran are run by xenophobic racists and are contemptuous of Obama for that reason alone. Add to that the their estimation that he has the spine of a jellyfish and you have the formula for some dangerous brinksmanship.
Many in this country do not understand the continually idea in other countries of racial superiority. It is not PC so it can’t possibly exist is the thinking of the left. Only red neck Americans and the GOP are racists. Chinese and Japanese have felt superior and it was endemic to their culture. It took a lot to get respect for the white European man by the British and Americans.
Arabs and Persian also have learned to respect the white European and America, They still believe black skin humans are inferior or otherwise they would not be slaves.
So the racial superiority aspect has an element of truth. But more importantly they have figure Obama is weak and incapable of a response. Bush, Clinton and Bush2 never really put forth and effort to punish NK. Only Bush 2 stopped the talking and stopped the use of counterfeit money that really did hurt the NK economy.
Obama’s focus is the US and democratic politics to demolish the GOP and conservatives. He does not care about the problems Iran, Russia, Venezuela, China and NK can cause the US or the world. Vinny as right in post #2 that geopolitical calculation are being done now. Israel will try to find other allies and Japan, Australia and SK may indeed depend on China growing economy and new blue water Navy.
But China cannot save those countries in the short run; only the US still has the nuke missile defense and navy to help at this time.
Barak better damn well start to do his job as President and think about this rather than try to distract with SCOTUS nominations and symbolic speeches. We need some lead-time to move navy ships around and he can’t just sit on his ass and dither. My guess is the gutless boy wonder will not interdict any NK ships so as not to start NK hostilities. In other words Obama has chosen appeasement.
I agree this is a possible reason is to safeguard NK from threats on a succession issue. These threats are ratcheting up and Obama is will to cave so there is no reason to go to war. But if I lived in Seoul, I would start packing. This is not the typical just to get 2 party talks and money and food. This is high stakes poker and NK raised the ante. Need to match or call.
“”"”"The DPRK is equipped with all types of nuclear warheads, atomic, neutron and hydrogen, and their means of delivery puts the whole of the USA within effective range.
The Times of London wrote on April 24, 2009: “The world’s intelligence agencies and defense experts are quietly acknowledging that North Korea has become a fully fledged nuclear power with the capacity to wipe out entire cities in Japan and South Korea.” “”"”"
Oh, Puh-leeze!
The Norks have had ONE succesful nuke test, ONE. It has NOT become a “full-fledged” nuclear power, and will not for a few years to come. This is not quibbling, as keeping a cool head and reminding N. Korea of its actual status is a better negotiating posture than caving to a run-down, desperately poor nation that has no viable delivery system for it’s soon to be tiny arsenal of nukes, and whose vaunted military, while capable of inflicting severe damage in the short term, would collapse from exhaustion after a few weeks.
@Wretchard-
“nuclear car bomb”- think about that.
Who would ever live in a city again? I quote another commenter:
“…When the nukes detonate in major America cities, they won’t come from a launchpad outside Isfahan with “From Persia with Love” stenciled on the side. They’ll come in the form of a concealed steamer trunk in the back of a van triple-parked outside Rockafeller Center from a guy who shouts “Allahu Akbar and pushes a button, and they’ll happen twice a week over three weeks or so. When city-dwelling Americans see those cities explode and nobody’s able to do anything about it, they won’t stick around to see if their city is next on the list. Over a third of our nation’s populace will instantly become refugees…”
Interesting thread over here:
http://comments.americanthinker.com/read/42323/333718.html
InlandEmpire
Rod you make a good point, but I think people are reacting to the rate of acceleration toward a world in which miserable little states captive to psychotic military-parties really will be instruments of international political blackmail in a world in which the Leninists will have truly vitiated the will of any country that might resist this transformation.
Since neither North Korea or Iran are independent states, however, it all tends – for me – to confirm the Convergence thesis. These states are not being developed into nuclear powers because they are going to launch nuclear volleys at the advanced nations within their reach: they exist to demonstrate the futility and ridiculousness of indigenous conservative political sensibilities of those nations, providing substantial fuel to the political and cultural fortunes of the (often unknowing) international Left. Russia’s and China’s role in this strtaegic breakdown is obvious, but curiously unremarked, or if remarked, unexplained. Not ever. Not even by Wretchard.
And yet we see the headlines go by “Putin and Chavez sign nuclear deal” “Russia sells S-300 air defense system to Iran” “Russia gives MiGs to Lebanon” “Russia says must support Hamas’s role in peace process” “Iran: Russia promises to guarantee security of nuclear fuel” and on and on and on and on. Does anyone else think this is the most bizarre feature of our public national security discourse? Total inattention to the enablers, often flagrant, of every single one of our and the West’s enemies?
And yet even the experts and officers who appear before national security committees in Congress now cannot avoid offhanded remarks on Russian and Chinese behavior and intentions – to me this indicates that things are currently accelerating quickly now, and that the intended goal is not good….
High Noon Redux without Gary Cooper.
Here’s a nasty bit of logic.
The Nork nuclear weapons program destabilizes East Asia and encourages Japan to remilitarize.
It is not in the interests of China to allow East Asia to destabilize or for Japan to remilitarize.
China controls the Nork economy. China has the power to immediately stop the Nork nuclear weapons program.
The United States is massively in debt to China (on the order of a trillion dollars).
The United States is making it clear that it intends to allow its currency to inflate against China’s economy thereby defaulting on its debt.
Hypothesis: China allows the Nork nuclear threat to continue despite being contrary to China’s immediate interests because China intends to use the Nork threat as an economic leveraging tool against the United States thereby forcing the US to honor its economic debt.
Re: Roderick Reilly @ 19:
I have to agree for the most part. I would be interested to know the source of the first quote, but it is patently false. As far as the capacity to strike targets in South Korea, Japan, or anywhere else, they are probably several years from that point.
If the DPRK has a weaponized, deployable version of the weapon they tested, I would imagine that it would be something similar to the old Mk5 weapons deployed in the early 1950s. It would be too bulky to effectively mate with a missile, and too large and “draggy” for tactical aircraft such as MiGs or Fitters to carry. The only viable delivery platform for such a weapon would be a few dozen IL-28 light bombers, which were developed during the first Korean War. These stand very little chance against modern interceptors and air defense systems, but all it would take is for one or two to get through to ruin someone’s day.
Also, they have very limited stocks of Pu-239. Even assuming that all of the available material has been incorporated into deployable weapons, they may detonate one or two more to try to extort their neighbors, but whatever stockpile remains will have to be carefully guarded, and not wasted foolishly. That material will become the primary key to the regime’s survival, in its own eyes. This can be used against them.
It seems to me that an appropriate response would be to ensure that the regime is no longer able to produce more weapons-grade material. Permanently. At that point, let them hold on to whatever nukes they may have, while the explosives degrade, the electronics fail, and the things eventually just rot after a few years due to the inability to maintain them. And we should make it clear to them that if Kim Jong Il or one of his insane little progeny decides to throw a temper tantrum by opening fire on Seoul, we will permanently allay any of his worries about the continued survival of his regime by vaporizing Pyongyang, and him with it.
The DPRK is like the fat, little schoolyard bully letting his temper, threats, and foul mouth put the other schoolkids back on their heels. The last thing he would expect, and what the little SOB has coming to him, is a sharp punch to the nose. And if that fails to stop him, kick his ass. I just wonder if there is anyone in leadership with the steel inside to think this through clearly, and be prepared to do what has to be done.
re #13 El Jefe–> Kennedy’s 1961 summit with Khrushchev in Vienna was so important because the young, inexperienced president was dominated and bullied, which led the Soviets to think they could get away with such moves as the Berlin wall and putting missiles in Cuba. The need to prove his toughness apparently was a partial reason for the decision to get involved in Vietnam.
Re: Robert W. @ 25:
Well put. It makes one consider what kinds of rash, ill-considered decisions may lie ahead. But when one’s whole mindset is predicated on shifting, adjusting on the fly, and making ad hoc decisions to satisfy a superficial understanding of a situation, the result is that one is constantly reacting, and getting farther and farther behind circumstances as they unfold, rather than understanding the situation, acting with bold precision, and getting ahead of it. Unfortunately, this concept is alien to political and chattering classes alike. We are just along for the ride….
Highlander @ 24: “…the fat, little schoolyard bully letting his temper, threats, and foul mouth…”
True, this is the perfect example of who the Norks are. But you forget that they have a big brother backing them up. The PRC may not be openly hostile but my bet is they are playing the behind the scenes game. They (the PRC) and others (Iran, Putin) have taken the measure of the man who supposedly leads us (The 0bamanation) and found him wanting. They can afford to let things simmer for a time. What you and so many discount is captured by RAH below and others as they follow the thread:
RAH @ 18: “Many in this country do not understand the (continually?) idea in other countries of racial superiority. It is not PC so it can’t possibly exist is the thinking of the left. Only red neck Americans and the GOP are racists.”
Most Liberals (Leftists) are provincial little f–kers. They do not understand the racial superiority that tied Germany (ideas of the Eugenicists and Sanger-Harris), Japan and Iran (to include the Arab world) together is racial superiority. You can include the Chinese in that assessment also. They all believe their society is the ‘correct’ one. Whatever the reasons they espouse it still comes out the same. Do you think any of that has gone away? All you have to do to find proof of it is try and go do some business in Japan. Been there, done that.
The nonproliferation world is dead and buried. In truth it was probably buried when AQ Khan hit the scene. The real threat is that a nuke car bomb makes it way to …? – pick your fav target. Plausible deniability will freeze The 0bamantion into inaction. We then become the favorite target of all the international bullies there are.
The zopilotes are gathering.
If I were the CIA I’d find a way to let Vlad Putin know that car-size nuclear weapons detonated by Islamic fanatics can just as easily turn up in Moscow as in New York. Then I’d find a way to “buy” a couple of Pakistan’s nukes and just…keep ‘em for awhile.
Highlander @ 26: …”the result is that one is constantly reacting, and getting farther and farther behind circumstances as they unfold, rather than understanding the situation, acting with bold precision, and getting ahead of it.”
Precisely. The Won does not even know what an OODA loop is much less the ramifications of what he has/is doing.
Thoughts to consider…
China may not be the puppetmaster. They may be in a coerced situation vis-a-vis NK nuclear sleeper cells. Their border with NK is quite porous. It could be the same with the others (SK, Japan) in the region. I can’t seem to come to grips with why China would allow this (the Test) to take place unless there are variables we are not aware of.
The best insurance for Iran to prevent a preemptive strike of their facility is to have a nuclear deterrent. I wonder if we know that Iran does not already possess the weapon as a sale from NK. If not already a done deal, then a highly likely scenario. If so, then it is already too late for Israel.
Wretchard — NRO is openly questioning if Obama would respond to the North Koreans or someone else nuking LA. Answer: no, he’d do nothing.
That may play with his female base which abhors anything but surrender, because the cost of fighting is too high for them (power flows to the fighters, the military, and the defense workers). But as Inland Empire notes, the nuclear carbomb (just as I predicted) changes everything.
While most women will push for a Vichy surrender (women in a surrendered country have nearly all power, NATIVE men almost none), most men are likely to shove women and Obama, the national Oprah Shaman, aside.
Impeachment and conviction are likely, as are suspension of parts of the Constitution, rule by military tribunal for the duration, and a desperate attempt to restore security by the simple expedient of rapidly increasing nuclear forces and wiping out proliferation threats. Including North Korea (China would be threatened they could have some of it too), Iran, and Pakistan. And by wiping out I mean at least 50% casualties in those nations. A nightmare … proof pacifism does not work, if more were needed.
Short term, I think North Korea is collapsing, due to the global recession, and Kim’s plan is to seize the South. I think he will, and Obama will simply sit by impotently surrendering as our front line troops are massacred and the few survivors paraded on North Korean television. He’ll get the defeat he and his followers so desperately want, but they won’t like it. Because it’s likely to open the floodgates of nuclear car bombs from emboldened Iranians and Pakistani factions.
Again, this is the inevitable result of female-dominated politics. Women HATE any military action, and would rather surrender than fight. They are likely to get both, the worst of both worlds. [You see this all over the West, Obama is the rule as female-oriented Shaman, not the exception.]
Robohobo @ 27 and 29:
I appreciate your comments. Actually, I have not forgotten about about the “instigator” in the schoolyard. I think that the same course of action still holds and might cause them to think twice as well. As time goes on, I increasingly favor another course of action that I’ve seen on other recent threads: Step back and let the ones that assembled this ugly little Frankenstein monster deal with their creation. Up to now, China, among other players, have at best been content to take full advantage of our situation. Personally, I’m not so charitable towards the b****rds and agree that they are using the Kim regime as a lever against both us and their neighbors in the region. But Kim and his regime of formaldehyde-addled apparatchiks don’t pose a direct threat to us. Maybe it’s not a bad idea to step back, and if China or Russia want to be respected as “major powers” then fine…start by cleaning up the mess you created and deal with your ugly little tar baby. And if ROK or Japan feel the need to take steps to ensure their security against KJI or his protector, so be it.
I value RAH’s excellent analysis, but really don’t think that it is an overriding factor in the present situation. It is a real wake up call to see the pure, unadulterated racism that you encounter outside of America’s borders. I absolutely do not dispute either the various strains of “racial superiority” in the world or the provincial idiocy of the PC Left in failing to recognize it, much less even realize that it might exist. I think that our enemies in the world would arrive at the same basic assessment even without invoking race. But, as in so many other matters, the blithe ignorance, combined with arrogance, is truly disturbing. The sad fact is that someone, somewhere down the line, is going to pay for it in blood.
the variable is that china is our enemy and that north korea exists to exert pressure on the US-based Pacific security architecture, to erode its credibility, to provide domestic leftist opposition with a stick to beat the conservatives, and a way to test the current resolve and health of the target country – primarily the USA.
for example, in “Spetznas” Viktor Suvorov describes in the final chapter, “Spetznas’ First World War,” the phase of conflict immediately preceding the Third World War is known in Spetznas as “the preparatory period,” or “the Overture.” During the Overture, there is “gray terror” – terror strikes conducted by groups with no apparent affiliation with the USSR. The purpose of gray terror is to build up the picture of global anarchy or destabilization sufficient to cause the USA and the West to divert its strategic military resources to a maximum number of targets and to occupy it there. As the crises multiply, Spetznas forces arrive in the USA undercover dressed in civilian clothes and immediately deploy to pre-arranged positions in order to assemble weapons that have long been smuggled in.
Of course this is the kind of Tom Clancy thing one doesn’t know how much to credit. But there is something interesting about the acceleration of crises and these little powers like Iran and North Korea and Afghanistan and Iraq and all this cave-dwelling Islamist violence don’t you think?…
“Since China is the largest market for both countries, probably a lot of economic bullying — which we’ll see a lot more of as China’s influence grows”
Vinny, that trade thangie isn’t as important as the “soft power rangers’ claim.
In 1940, Germany’s biggest trading partner was France. In 1941 ( after invading and looting France, you really couldn’t consider them a trading partner. most people don’t consider armed robbery a form of trade, excepting the IRS, of course) it was the Soviet Union. As the Panzers headed east, trains of food and minerals headed west.
So trade is more of an inducement to war then a deterrent.
War, after all, is a robbery on a national scale. Except for the stoooooopid Americans, who pour money into their defeated enemies instead of sucking it out. Strange people, no wonder no self respecting tyrant likes America.
Perfect answer to the NK problem? It’s actually quite simple.
200kT, ground zero Pyongyang Presidential Palace. No warning. No more problem.
It might also remind some other lunatics of where the real power lies, too.
http://militera.lib.ru/research/suvorov6/15.html
Highlander -
Yes, it would be nice to let them clean up their own tarbaby but it may turn out that parts of the tar that stick to us will be really, really destructive. At least, that is the fear of any who have been paying attention, like wretchard. (O/T – His 3 conjectures is what drew me to the old Belmont Club many moons ago. It kept me awake at night for a time and made me think.)
Ever heard of the Hierarchy of Alienness? It comes from a favorite writers series of books. I would posit that the gap between Asia and the West fits into this one:
“Ramen (Card’s original term) – these are strangers of who are of another species, and yet capable of communication and peaceful coexistence with, in Card’s model, Homo sapiens sapiens — although this does not ensure communication will take place; nor does such communication ensure peaceful coexistence. While Card uses the term to describe the relations between humans and certain species of aliens in his books, one could take this term to refer to, say, Americans and Chinese: while the majority of the members do not share a common language, and many of their customs differ significantly, there are many who can and do communicate between the cultures (and many individuals who are simultaneously members of both communities), and, obviously, peaceful coexistence is possible. From a slightly different angle, men and women (and, by this, I mean the standard, traditional Western view, which for the most part sees gender and sex as the same, etc.) might consider each other to be ramen. The two groups are certainly different in fundamental, physical ways, but there is a large body of shared culture between the groups (of course, one could make an equally strong argument for these groups viewing each other as framling, etc.).”
I think whiskey sees women as Ramen.
I won’t burn up the wretchards band width with the rest of the piece unless asked.
“200kT, ground zero Pyongyang Presidential Palace. No warning. No more problem.”
Seems reasonable to me now that we are at war again.
By the way, you notice how the United Nations is not part of the package this time?
The amusing irony is how absolutely south park “Team America” nailed the UN with the same scenario.
Now back to reality. The recent announcement by NK is more than the threats to gains food, attention and oil. They were emboldened by their successful test. I speculated was a perfect demonstration for the black market to sell nukes. Consider that SK then signed on to the interdict program that was a real threat to catching these shipments to the black markets of Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia to name a few. So NK did a predictable move renouncing the 1953 cease-fire and stated that any interdiction would be an act of war and responded in kind. Remember that NK had voided all the SK business contracts and told them to remove personnel. That was clearing the decks. Now watch if SK renounces inclusion in interdiction efforts or not. I would expect the pacifist nature of SK would indicate a failure to catch NK ships. They have the perfect ability since the have the coastal access. But they will just allow those ships to slip through. Even other countries may be hesitant to board a NK ship since that really is an act of war or piracy and don’t want NK threatening them. Now our Navy will do it because our navy is not a bunch of pansies but Barack is so what are his orders? I doubt if we get to know because the media will not ask those questions.
I suggest that we watch the blog Information Dissemination because Galran is very good at catching navy movements and making good guess. If navy units had been ordered to the area. Then we have an implied threat and can also take interdiction steps.
Now if I wanted to distract the US I would get Iran to step up its navy work and threaten Iraqi coastline and Dubai. Of course the news that naval units of Iran and Russia had moved into the Persian Gulf is a good confirmation of that guess.
However the next move is to cover the Gulf from Diego Garcia. Regrettably that has long transit by air to the Gulf but we can cover it from long distance. We have the best long distance capability in the world and we use it all the time despite the cost.
So speculation on what happens next is that Iran acts up in the Gulf with a manufactured incident with the US. Also it pokes Obama in the eye, which is satisfying for the Persians. Iran will be backed up by Russia. Russia may make moves on Georgia and if too many crisis Obama is paralyzed. It was a tactic that worked with Bush. He could only focus on a few items. Obama doesn’t focus at all; He flits from subject to subject.
Really overkill as Obama has already frozen and unlikely to react. I have not seen any domestic pressure for him to act on NK so he will ignore it as much as he can. He has all the help by the media.
From this NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/world/asia/28korea.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
“South Korea has said that it will stop only suspicious ships in its own territorial waters, a sovereign right it already has. In addition, the chance that the North Koreans would send ships carrying such materials into South Korean waters is low.”
Has a diplomatic retreat begun? I would have thought that South Korea would have been more ambiguous about this kind of thing. To me this is close to capitulation.
dan @33
Interesting scenario but what would be the use? Why would the Chinese care to destroy much of their foreign reserves as well as current and future market + there are a lot of Chinese living here.
Self interest is impetus enough for any of the tin-pot actors. The question still in my mind is why would China allow this to take place? Normally, I’d just say incompetence, but the Test and especially the follow up to the Test (repeated missile firings) suggest that there are some other motivations.
Robohobo
Clancy in one of his books has the US Military referring to the ChiComs as Klingons. Their logic and thought processes are completely alien. See our recent contacts with the islams, we don’t do any better with them.
Herb – The next category is this:
Varelse (from Swedish: “creature”) – pronouced ‘var-ELSS-uh,’ this term refers to strangers from another species who are simply not capable of communication with Homo sapiens sapiens. In the truest sense, they are aliens, “completely incapable of common ground with humanity.” In Card’s view, a meeting with true varelse must eventually, over time, lead to war.
These are the total aliens. The ChiComs don’t quite arrive to this definition. Close, but…
Or try this for the complete article. http://tmereport.blogspot.com/2008/10/marcus-tullius-tiro-common-ground-or.html
I had forgotten I had this link.
Wiskey, my big problem with your scenario is that the DPRK is incapable of taking the South, regardless of what the Usurper does. It has beeen at least a decade since the ROK’s needed US military help to deal with hte north.
To many people underestimate the ROK’s. In ’50, they were better then the US Army. They moved farther, faster then the Army without having their own tanks, air cover or even transport at first. Once the got trucks they really took off. None of the Marine landing planned after Ichon happened because the ROK’s moved fast enough to take the proposed landing sites before the Navy could get the Marines there.
Granted, the Rok’s didn’t do all that well when the Chi-Com bugels started blaring, but they did at least as well as the US Army. They held the flanks long enough for the Marine to fight their way out of the trap at Chosin.
Today, the ROK army is the equal of ANY nation in the region.
S. Korea is a major industrial power, the Equal of most European nations. Their economy is ranked either 13 or 14th, depending on whose criteria you use.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
Note that they are right behind most of the European nations. Ahead of Canada, Turkey AND Australia.
the DPRK, on the other hand, is not even on the lists. It has a GDP about the same as the local Wal-Mart. If it was an American corporation, it wouldn’t be in the top 500. Even under today’s less then vigorous economy.
No, either Kim got a batch of bad ‘rooms or he is playing the mouse that roared game. Only David Niven is dead. Kim needs to be.
Those who diminish the threat in this situation must remember the obvious:
NK doesn’t have anything to lose by war. South Korea, China, Japan, the US will do almost anything to avoid war.
Now the guy with nothing to lose has nukes.
Everyone is afraid of him. Everyone is tiptoeing around trying to avoid provocation. He has everyone by the short hairs.
Remember, he has nothing to lose, much to gain no matter what happens. Everyone else has much to lose no matter what.
If they shot at an american or japanese or south korean ship, would there be a response? Probably not. If they fired some artilery rounds in Seoul, what would happen? Nothing. If the launched a missile into Japan, what would happen? Nothing.
Oh, the international community would be very very upset. But restraint would be counselled. And heeded.
What exactly does North Korea, Iran and anyone else watching have to lose?
Obama has shown two tendancies. First is to try to outwait his opponent. Second is to focus on his image first.
Interesting times. Extraordinarily dangerous.
Derek