Here’s an excerpt from Michael’s latest:
I actually know that Hezbollah in Iraq is connected in some ways to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Colonel Hort didn’t want to talk about that, however. No American officer I met wanted to tell me much about Hezbollah unless I agreed not to quote them by name. The few who were willing to discuss it anonymously said Hezbollah in Iraq members do receive training in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran from Lebanese Hezbollah members. I also know that the Iraqi branch of Hezbollah doesn’t engage in any kind of political activity whatsoever. They don’t even have a make-believe “political wing.” They don’t build hospitals or schools, and they do not collect donations for charity. They don’t do anything except kill people. Hezbollah in Iraq is far more vicious than Moqtada al Sadr and his men.
Colonel Hort would tell me this much, however: “Hezbollah was very very secretive in the beginning. We couldn’t see them well at all. They were extremely savvy [about operational security]. They were almost like a family in and of themselves. They’ve been focused on attacks against coalition forces rather than Iraqis or anyone else. They’ve gotten some specialized training, some weaponry like the RPG-29 – which is one of the best Eastern bloc RPGs out there – and they use them to hit M1 tanks. They’ve got the IRAM – the Improvised Rocket Assisted Mortar – that they’ve used to attack some of our Joint Security Stations. Those are their two specialties right there. They’ve also specialized in some of the more sophisticated EFPs. Hezbollah, though, is not very big. They aren’t like some of the other Special Groups out there. We’ve had a significant impact on them. They are really disrupted right now.” …
“Do you think the improvements in the last year and a half are permanent,” Ramon said, “or might Iraq become destabilized very quickly when the Americans leave?” I asked this of almost everyone I met last time in Iraq. It is the big question right now, and the truth is, nobody knows. (Colonel Hort here belongs in the optimist camp, though I’ll quote pessimists at length in later installments in this series.)
“It’s what we call fragile security right now,” Colonel Hort said. “We’re watching it closely with our Iraqi military counterparts. My focus, to answer your question, is ensuring that the 11th Iraqi Army Division, which is my counterpart, understands the intelligence requirements in order to target the insurgent groups. They’re continuing to develop their human source networks that allow them to see the enemy better. It’s something they didn’t really have last year. The Sons of Iraq are now part of the Iraqi Security Forces. They’re reporting to the battalion brigade division chain of command, whereas they used to report to me.”
My guess is that no victory over terrorism anywhere in the world will be permanent until the idea of Islamic extremism either runs its course or is discredited. This is a generational conflict. Of course, some politicians don’t believe that it is and have even abolished the term for terrorism, because that’s so yesterday. Time to move on. But the danger is complacency; and just as the Iraqi security forces have got to keep pushing their intelligence feelers out there to pick up new and emerging threats, perhaps the Western public has to keep thrusting out the Michael Tottens of the world to gather political intelligence. If Hezbollah in Iraq is linked to its namesake in Lebanon, then what’s the ripple through to Iran and to the US mission in Afghanistan? Maybe the answer is nothing, but the answers only come when the questions are posed.
This administration is delivering defeat in Afghanistan, defeat in Iraq, impoverishment at home, corruption of the census and the voting rolls and death to Israel. If the returning troops are drawn into the sterile fringe that the press and DHS attempt to smear them with then they will be marginalized. We need to organize now to engage in mainstream politics for 2010.
The important thing to remember is that when Obama took over the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on January 20, 2009, they were both well on the way to victory. And there had been no terrorist attacks on the mainland US in over seven years. Any deterioration in the war positions and any terrorist attacks on the ZI can only be laid at his door.
I would trust either Totten or Yon long before I would count on any of the mian outlets. We definitely need more of these fellows, they are everything that a reporter is supposed to be but so few are.
As to the situation in Iraq (and the rest of the used-to-be War on Terror) our enemy can spot weakness a mile off and the stink of fear leaks out of this administration at all corners. We can count on our enemies becoming very bold indeed.
It’s hard to imagine that those who were intent to inflict as much political damage on the USA and Iraq won’t be able to revitalize their efforts once we’ve left. This is the danger habitual corruption poses: if the loyalty of the crucial commanders and political personalities is so corruptible, then there isn’t much of an Iraqi structure to resist the few bombings and death squads required to quickly reverse the achievements, both Iraqi and US, of the past couple years. It strikes me that in this regard “Iraq” will remain entirely too porous and the US will remain exposed to political attack for a long time, despite whatever media blackout (sudden disinterest) that follows our withdrawal.
I guess – aside from the two Main Enemies – the main problem is Iran-Syria. Without direct confrontation, which would require an entirely different international political atmosphere, it’s hard to see how we can harden our victory sufficiently. And of course the problem is also Iraqi habits: they are not “educated,” as the Iraqis officers above mention. Yes.
Michael Totten is fantastic though. Someone give this guy a Pulitzer Prize and a media outlet.
3 months after we pull out Iraq will have a bloodbath.
If the terrorists have sanctuaries, arms, money and recruits the terrorism can continue indefinitely. The plentiful east-bloc weaponry is interesting. No surprise that other powers use proxies to bleed the Americans and their proxies. Why are we surprised?
The question is the same as always. When do the Americans really get into the game? We will never get anyplace with this type of war until we find a way to run it the other way.
I still read Michael Totten’s material, but he stopped being a source of intelligence for me when he referred to Kosovo as “the Israel of the Balkans”. The obscenity was too much for me, and indicated a frightening and gaping lack of insight I had not observed before in this unique journalist’s work. I’m not sure how much he can or should be trusted when he glibly equates Israel, a nation surrounded by genocidal Nazi Islamic Jihadi states, and Kosovo, itself a newly minted Jihad state.
I’ve said from the beginning, the Axis of Evil must be defeated, to have peace. Ex-pres. and his counsil halted the advance in Iraq. True blitzkrieg is scarey and difficult to understand: how _can_ we continue to advance, deep into the enemy lands, when we’ve not consolidated the current positions?
This is always the quandrey. Failing to do so; halting the advance, leads to loss of momentum. Restarting the advance can be impossible, the cost very high, even as full victory was at your fingers. If only to go, go, go.
I advised to whoever would listen, that Syria should have been crushed, right after the 1st Iraqi elections. We had elevated troop levels to protect the voters. Those troops should have rolled thru Damascus. This was the inexpensive moment to squash Iran by destroying it’s primary proxy.
I am not even kidding.
Hez is dominating where it goes; Hez alone, immune from national retribution. Hez, allowed to pretend it’s not just Iran. Hez becoming legimate while free men die.
Hizbullah in Iraq is definitely connected to Hizbullah in Lebanon and every other Hizbullah around the world. In fact the ruling Mullahs in Iran are also know as Hizbullah. It is the same doctrine and the same objectives.
The MO is also identical to that of Hizbullah in Lebanon. Hizbullah in Lebanon never participated as an organization in internal fighting against other Lebanese. That was left for affiliate organizations under various names. Hizbullah focused on fighting Israel only and built a reputation as a resistance to occupation and not a militia.
It took almost ten years for Hizbullah in Lebanon to officially come out into the open. It was only then, 1985, that they started all the social work. Political participation was another decade down the line.
In Iraq, Hizbullah and Iran provide all the necessary support, training and supplies to Al-Mahdi army and others, but keep a distinct identity so they can later play the true liberator. The time line in Iraq will not be exact, but I expect the sequence to be the same.
Iraq has many similarities to Lebanon, but also many differences that make Hizbullah’s work much more dangerous.
Like Lebanon, Iraq is a mixture of religious and ethnic groups, each with their own identity, history and world view. The survival of a unified country will require either a true agreement on common ground, or unfortunately a dictatorship.
In Lebanon, Hizbullah did not have a chance of taking over for many reasons – politically motivated bogus claims not withstanding. First, the Shiites in Lebanon are less than a third of the population and Hizbullah is only a fraction of those. Second, the much maligned sectarian political structure in Lebanon limits the number of Shiites in Parliament and the Cabinet and does not allow them the Presidency, Priministership or Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. Third, Lebanon does not have Shiite Iran right across the border, but is rather surrounded by non-Shiites.
As such, as much as Hizbullah may want to rule, it is forced to coexist with others. At most Hizbullah can aspire to be a main kingmaker in Lebanon along with others.
Iraq is quite different. The Shiites are over sixty percent of the population. Iran is next door with all the support they need. The political system introduced by the US effectively allows them to dominate all levels of Government and the military.
Thus, effectively there is a serious risk of a Hizbullah rule in Iraq with time. Sadly, such an outcome will only strengthen Lebanon’s Hizbullah as it will gain another sizable ally and supporter in the region. It will also provide a continuous link from Iran through Iraq and Syria.
Unfortunately, the lack of understanding of this formula in Lebanon meant the efforts to fight Hizbullah almost always had the opposite effect of strengthening them and increasing their support.
In a sectarian setting, when the champion of one sect’s rights is attacked, the whole sect feels attacked and rallies around the organization, even if they do not agree on its politics. Those opposed to the US presence in Iraq do not see attacks on our soldiers as terrorism. In pure military terms, that is resistance to occupation. Thus, when they are accused of terrorism, more people tend to come to their defense. This is what happened in Lebanon vis-à-vis Israel.
The only way to defeat them is to undermine their credibility. Direct attacks and accusation of terrorism works the other way. In times of war and conflict, radicals always come to the front and the moderates fade from the scene.
We tried for years to convince the West that the best way to defeat Hizbullah is to work to reverse the conditions that gave it credence. We argued that the world should get Syria and Israel out of Lebanon, support a strong Lebanese army and allow the Lebanese to deal with Hizbullah. A strong Lebanese Government providing security and proper services to the people, including the Shiites, would have taken away any excuse for an armed Hizbullah and would have removed the need for its services.
That would have left Hizbullah to market itself only under the banner of its fundamentalist doctrine and hatred, which would not go too far.
Clearly that was not the approach taken. The multi-national forces in Lebanon left with their tails tucked after the attacks on the Marine barracks and the French paratroopers. That cast the die for the next 25 years. They knew that if they inflict enough pain on our troupes we will tuck and run. And, did that repeatedly.
Then the world entrusted Syria with “handling” Hizbullah, which meant keeping the conflict within manageable limits. Israel was allowed to remain in Lebanon giving Hizbullah all the excuses it needed to exist. The Lebanese Government forces were left ill-equipped and denied access to the South and much of the country for that matter.
Hizbullah grew as the de facto defender of the Shiites and gained the credibility and acceptance of people who felt abandoned by the whole world.
Then, after years of accusations and random punishment of the Shiites for supporting Hizbullah, Israel simply leaves in 2000, without any international effort to undermine Hizbullah. Hizbullah took credit for the withdrawal and grew much stronger.
The world should have taken our advice much earlier and solved the problem before Hizbullah had a chance to grow that far. At the very least there should have been a concerted effort to provide the proper assistance to the region backed by political and military presence that would lend the feeling of security to the people and give them hope in something else.
Even after Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 and the entry of the Lebanese army into South Lebanon following the 2006 war, the world still refuses to properly equip the Lebanese army. The majority of the Shiites in South Lebanon would rather have the Army and not Hizbullah protect them. But, they see the army ill-equipped to do so.
I truly hope some one has learned something from past experiences. It is not too late yet.
However, the US appears to be following the same tried and proven path. We continue to deny the Lebanese army any meaningful weaponry and we are leaving Iraq in the hands of radicals who will make Saddam’s rule look like a walk in the park.
Cadmus
You’re right, for the sake of the Lebaneses , but who cares for them really ? they are so nice and civilised persons, their county looks like a paradise for her neibours, wasn’t her called “ME Switzerland” before ? All her neighbours dream to take over Lebanon, mountain, water, cultures, life style… if there is a country that deserves to be protected, it is Lebanon, forget about Georgia and her dream of subjugating Russia, Georgia has much more in her bins to repproach herself : Stalin, Beria… mafiosi, and her last leader of the same accabit !
My guess is that no victory over terrorism anywhere in the world will be permanent until the idea of Islamic extremism either runs its course or is discredited.
If nearly 1400 years isn’t enough to make it run its course, no amount of time will.
What could discredit it? Quran, hadith, and sunna all approve of terror as a tool of Islam’s dominance. Even periods of relative failure only result in quiescence, not discredit. It always comes back into favor eventually.
In my opinion, the only way to discredit Islam is to prove the powerlessness of Allah and break their will by methodically killing every last jihadist and everybody who supports them. “Dialogue” and “diplomacy” only serve to prove Allah’s power and reinforce their will. Killing them won’t get rid of jihad or terror; it’s inherent in Islam and short of destroying Islam entirely their recurrence is inevitable.
That would have left Hizbullah to market itself only under the banner of its fundamentalist doctrine and hatred, which would not go too far.
Why do you believe that? If their doctrine were repugnant to Islamic morals they wouldn’t be able to recruit. Their success in recruiting hundreds of thousands to their banner suggests their doctrine is in fact quite in accord with Islamic morals.
A shoe is about to drop that will increase the jeopardy in our position not only in Iraq but in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, and indeed on the ground everywhere we are.
Obama is going to release photos of prisoner abuse, it is like Abu Ghraib all over again.
It really is incredible to see this. This will be an entirely self-inflicted wound that plays right into the hands of our enemies.
It is difficult to understand this action and reconcile it with the notion that our president means business against the forces of terrorism. Makes you wonder whose side he’s on, frankly.
Obama and Dems want and need a loss. They want a Vichy America.
Of course, they have no idea of the penalty they’ll pay. They think a “nice” occupying Army will let them simply expropriate property belonging to enemies. The reality is likely to be nuclear in nature.
Bob Smith
It is true that there are thousands of violent Jihadis in this world and on the surface it sounds like it is too much. But, consider this. Almost all 1.5 Billion Moslems are indoctrinated from the time they are born with hatred for all things non-Islamic. They are taught that the rest of us are sons of Apes and Pigs and it is God’s will to kill us and subjugate us. This is what all the Saudi funded “Madrasas” and Iranian backed “Mahdi” schools teach. And a large portion of Moslems live their whole lives without ever meeting an non-Moslem.
Consider that 1/1,000 would amount to 1.5 million Jihadis. We do not even have a small fraction of that. That means, an overwhelming majority of Moslems are not out killing and bombing. But, rather, they are as eager as we are to see peace. They may have a different outlook on life, but do not want to die or kill because of it.
More specific to Lebanese Shiite is the fact that they do not live in a purely Islamic society isolated from the rest. The Shiites live in a mixed society where every one of them has Christian classmates, neighbors, co-workers, friends, etc. Some are even intermarried into other religions.
During the war in 2006, the Shiites who escaped the bombing in the South were housed in Churches, Monasteries and schools (Some Catholic) they were in areas with Christian majority who fed them clothed them and took care of them. Within the South, many took refuge in Christian villages that were safe because there were no Hizbullah fighters to draw Israeli fire. The locals shared whatever little they had and all went a little hungry and little thirsty together while they waited for the conflict to end.
Indoctrinating these people to hate those who share their lives with them is an impossible task. Hizbullah’s support in Lebanon stems from two sources. The first is the fact that they provided people with basic social services when the Government was non-existent. The second is that they defended them from the Palestinians and Israel.
Anyone listening to Hizbullah’s speech in Lebanon today would see that they fully recognize this. They have openly declared that the Mahdi dogma – Iran style – cannot apply in Lebanon. They have very clearly stated that they want to coexist peacefully. They are even advocating now the rebuilding of a strong army so they can lay down their weapons.
Sure there is a lot of tactical maneuvering involved. And many in the leadership are hoping to buy time until things change and they can impose their will on people.
However, the fact that they need to say this indicates the attitude of the people towards their doctrine. They know it does not sell on its own. They need the threat of war to justify their armed presence that allows them to impose some of their will on people.
Then again, there are those within the organization who only wanted to defend themselves from the beginning and the rest was something they had to put up with.
That is why I always believed that the absence of war will substantially reduce the size and any influence Hizbullah has.
Unfortunately, those the world has given them precisely what they needed. A low intensity war that allowed them to grow and prosper without any real threat of destruction.
Cadmus
That means, an overwhelming majority of Moslems are not out killing and bombing. But, rather, they are as eager as we are to see peace.
I think that’s dangerously naive. While they are not out killing themselves, they provide financial, logistical, and moral support to those who are. It’s not exactly a secret that most Islamic “charities” are fronts for terror groups, for example. You are also far too credulous. When a Muslim says “peace”, he doesn’t mean what you and I mean by that term (non-violent coexistence on an indefinite basis). He means that if we do not convert to Islam you and I are to become dhimmis under the permanent and global rule of Islam, or that we are to be killed for resisting the rule of Islam. Peace at last!
The Shiites live in a mixed society where every one of them has Christian classmates, neighbors, co-workers, friends, etc.
That must be why Lebanon went from a majority Christian country to under 20% in 2 generations, and there are now more Lebanese Christians outside Lebanon than inside. Because Lebanese Muslims were all lovey-dovey towards their Christian neighbors.
Indoctrinating these people to hate those who share their lives with them is an impossible task.
It disagree. It’s easy. Remember two things: the Quran commands Muslims to never make friends with an unbeliever unless that friendship is outward and not in the heart, and Islamic law commands that unbelievers shelter and defend believers (it’s a form of jizya). What does that mean? It means that Muslims do not feel gratitude towards the Christians that sheltered them. That shelter is commanded by Allah and is a Muslim’s by right.
They have very clearly stated that they want to coexist peacefully. They are even advocating now the rebuilding of a strong army so they can lay down their weapons.
Listen again. It’s lies, all lies. They want a hudna, not peaceful coexistence. That army will be theirs.
My Lebanese friend who are christian Arabs have no envy to emigrate, they love their country
Well, well. I am not sure what your experience is that makes you so angry, but for your sake I hope it pales in comparison to mine. Islamic Fundamentalists have over the years killed and wounded thousands of people I love dearly, dispersed and inflicted untold miseries on millions of others, held a nation I adore hostage for over 35 years, and continue to do so. If not for the grace of God, repeatedly, I would not be here today. I should have been dead a long time ago.
I have looked the devil in the eye too often, and yet I remain here to tell about it.
I really hope your story is a little less sanguine.
If you read my note, I did not defend the fanatics. You are right about the Radical Islamic doctrine. It actually is much worse than the brief note you made. And this did not start yesterday. It dates back to the beginning of Islam. Almost every Moslem ruler has been a fundamentalist. Today, no Moslem state recognizes the rights of anyone else. In fact converting from Islam to any other religion is considered high treason, punishable by death in all Moslem countries.
What I said is that this kind of radicalization and getting people willing to die takes more than just preaching the Quran and other Islamic teaching. It requires a radicalization agent – fear and misery.
On Lebanon I was not relaying stories I read, but rather first hand experience. I was in Lebanon when fanatics descended on the country from all corners of the world. Sure they called it a civil war, but foreigners outnumbered Lebanese on the battle front by at least 10 to 1.
A Jihad was declared and people were recruited to come liberate Lebanon from the infidel Christian Crusaders. I was living in what was to become West Beirut – Moslem dominated. I saw all these, I fought them, and witnessed extreme acts of barbarism, that few can even imagine. I will spare you the gory details.
But, at the same time I witnessed the attitude of the majority of the Lebanese Moslems, and innumerable acts of human kindness. This kind of mayhem tends to bring the worst or best out of people. Some turn into absolute monsters, while others exhibit saintly qualities. I tell you the later far outnumbered the first. Including people I never knew who stepped between me a loaded gun and saved my life on more than one occasion. I never saw these people again, but will never forget their faces.
Throughout the war, people often took refuge from savage bombardment in other parts of the country, and mostly in areas dominated by another religion. They took care of each other, housed, fed and clothed each other.
People are not all monsters. But, people can be scared into acting as such. Fear is the strongest human emotion, not love of hate. When people are afraid, they will do anything to end the threat, whether it is real or perceived. When people’s lives become so miserable that they are not worth living, they become much more willing to die in an effort to change their reality.
Radical Islam feeds on this. It systematically creates such conditions to create fertile ground to plant its seeds.
Sadly, those who have claimed to be fighting them have contributed to this fertility. Mostly unintentionally, but sometimes with full intentions.
There was a time when I was extremely angry. But, with time, I learned the wisdom that my parents instilled in me. Never act in anger. You will always loose.
Another valuable lesson that I always try to remember is “Know your enemy, its weaknesses and strengths”. Invaluable.
Ask yourself, how many Christians or Jews or any others fully adhere to the details of their religion. I am not saying we have the same sanguine teachings in the bible. But, the more oppressive and constraining the teachings are, the less people adhere to them. And, we all know how oppressive Islam is.
On the numbers, you are slightly off. There has been no formal census in Lebanon since 1932. Then the Christians were about 55% of the population. The only reliable information approximating a census today is the voter registration roll. Here Christians come to around 42%. But, that includes many non-Lebanese Moslems who were given the citizenship under Syria’s rule.
This is the trend all over the Middle East. Jerusalem and other parts of the Holly Land barely have any Christians left. During the past century, Millions of Christians have been killed or forced out of the region. Not the least of which are Iraq’s Christians who are being exterminated right now, without anyone raising the issue.
As far as radicals taking over, if they had the support of the general Moslem population they would have already done so. Remember, the Christians have been abandoned by the West from decades now. The Syrian occupation was a deal between Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran, which left the Christians with no real say in the country. The Lebanese army is at least two thirds Moslem.
They could have very easily overturned the Government and declared a Moslem state. And, no it was not Israeli threats that stopped them. They were already at war with Israel.
What stopped them is the opposition of most Lebanese Moslems who love the freedoms they have in a mixed society and do not want to turn their country into another oppressive Islamic state. The radicals did not have the support of the public except in their fight against Israel. And, that is a whole different subject that requires its own writing
Back to Hizbullah, I will relay the following development that makes my point.
In 2005, the Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon left Hizbullah orphaned and isolated. The whole world, including all Lebanese were pushing to disarm them, except for Syria and Iran, who themselves were isolated and under political siege. There was no love lost on Hizbullah from the Sunni Arabs.
The majority of Lebanon’s Shiites, like other Lebanese were finally hoping for the day their country will have peace.
However, Israel began to itch at the chance to exact retribution against Hizbullah for claiming victory and reaping the benefits from Israel’s 2000 withdrawal.
And, Hizbullah desperately needing justification for its continued existence saw Israel’s bluster as a perfect venue.
We spent the next year exerting every possible effort, including begging and pleading with the world community to not let Israel give them this justification. We explained that a war against Hizbullah will only make them stronger and more legitimate. Unless, of course, Israel was willing to expend the loss in manpower necessary to go house to house and extract all Hizbullah from Lebanon. We knew this will not happen.
Hizbullah gives Israel the perfect excuse for war, by kidnapping two soldiers. The Israeli gives Lebanon everything they have. But, naturally, no matter how much damage they did, at the end Hizbullah was still there albeit wounded and limping.
That war transformed Hizbullah from a reviled Shiite terrorist organization to an icon of Islamic resistance all over the Moslem world. They proclaimed it the modern day “David” against the Israeli Goliath. Its leader, Nasrallah, became the most admired man in the Moslem world.
And, Hizbullah weapons gained a legitimacy they could never have dreamt of.
Israel continues to threaten destroying all of Lebanon. The world continues to deny Lebanon’s armed forces any real weapons. And, thus, Hizbullah retains its argument that it is the only defender of South Lebanon.
In 2007, Sunni Radicals in Palestinian camps in North Lebanon – an area with a Sunni majority – tried their hand. They attacked the Lebanese Army and declared their intent to establish Moslem rule in the north. The Moslems were fighting them before the Christians. Of the 173 Lebanese soldiers who lost their lives, 115 were Sunnis. And the Sunnis in the surrounding areas threw all they had behind the Army.
Why? Again they do not want to become another Afghanistan. What sane person would?
Again, I say, DISCREDIT THEM.
They only thrive through conflict and misery. The solution is not a simple one, but, it is definitely not what we have been doing.
Cadmus