Zuma
Jacob Zuma won the Presidency of South Africa, but neither as narrowly as the opposition predicted nor by as large as a margin as the ANC formerly enjoyed. All Africa focused on the setbacks inside of Zuma’s victory.
Cape Town — The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has won South Africa’s national election with a slightly reduced majority, narrowly failing to achieve the two-thirds majority that would enable it to change the country’s Constitution unilaterally. Although the party lost votes across the board in most provinces, the losses were largely offset by a dramatic leap in support in KwaZulu-Natal, home province of the ANC’s leader, Jacob Zuma – at the expense of Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
But in the Western Cape, centred on Cape Town, the ANC suffered as calamitous a setback as did the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal, losing control of the province to the official opposition, the Democratic Party.
The Online Times noted however, that opposition scenarios predicting an ANC meltdown did not eventuate. “The ANC’s victory was never in doubt, but most pundits expected widespread voter disgruntlement to result in a sharply reduced majority. In the event, the share of the vote was down – from 69.7% in 2004 to 65.9%, just short of a two-thirds majority – but the lead was decisive.”
The South African Times, in a post election editorial, articulated the concerns on both sides. “We hope he will quickly stamp out the nascent personality cult building around him … For the third of South Africa that did not elect the ANC, the challenge is to put aside past resentments and judge the Zuma government on its actions, and accord his high office the respect it demands. As the new executive begins to submit policy proposals, the opposition must assess them fairly, criticise as necessary and support as appropriate. This newspaper denies none of its concerns about Zuma’s ascent, but respects the will and judgment of the majority. We will monitor the new government with the same rigorous scrutiny that has underpinned all our reporting and analysis.”
And: is Jacob Zuma Mr. X?
I must confess to being rather out of the loop on this one. In an effort to catch up, I’ve been reading the Wikipedia page on Jacob Zuma, and the man is certainly some piece of work. What are the pertinent geopolitical issues and/or combinations we need to worry about vis-à-vis South Africa?
The literacy and grace of the quote from the “South African Times” are stunning.
South Africa is screwed. Anybody paying attention has noticed that more than half of the whites who voted out the apartheid government have since left the country. Crime is out of control, the government apparently has little interest in stopping even that bit it could, and the country is on the fast slide to middle Third World status. When I was last there in 2005 every white person I spoke to was either already prepared to emigrate or thinking seriously about doing so.
My money says the 2010 World Cup ISN’T held in South Africa.
The elephant in the room, not mentioned directly in the article is that Zuma is a Zulu, Natal/KwaZulu is the Zulu stronghold. Both Mandela and Mbeki are Xhosas. Xhosas and Zulus generally do *not* like each other. In a big way.
The ANC, whilst officially multi-racial, is effectively the Xhosa Ascendancy. However, some effort to date has been made to be at least a bit inclusive.
Buthelezi is, of course a Zulu, and in fact Zulu Royalty. It’s not surprising that his Inkatha Freedom Party has lost some votes since it’s natural that Zulus might want to vote for their guy to have a chance at the top.
Elsewhere, South African Blacks probably voted as much for the ANC as for Zuma himself.
He’s definitely a Nut Job. But then so is Mbeki – vide Mbeki’s stance on HIV. It’s only because Mbeki was such a disaster that a Zulu (let alone a Big Man from Central Casting like Zuma) could have a crack at the ANC top spot – and hence become President.
It’s going to be very interesting to see whether Zuma starts pandering to the Zulus. Tribal favouritism is one of the curses of African politics and it’s hard to imagine this fellow rising above the temptation.
As for the general state of law and order… that’s pretty much a disaster already, as another poster has pointed out.
“We hope he will quickly stamp out the nascent personality cult building around him, and demand that he and his government are measured by their commitment, energy and results. We have seen the damage that results when a leader is declared to be beyond criticism or even question…”
Oh dear. Where have we heard this before?
Zuma is Exhibit A on Africa’s Big Man problem.
South Africa is toast. Just waiting to be a colder Liberia, or Somalia.
My wife is South African. The word from her friends and relatives back in South Africa is that Zuma is serious trouble (South Africa maybe going down the same road as Zimbabwe did with Mugabe). Zuma is little more than a common criminal. He committed rape and used his political influence to avoid successful prosecution. The woman he raped has since fled to the Netherlands. Zuma is also guilty of corruption. Zuma’s misconduct is common knowledge in South Africa. The fact that Zuma was elected anyway indicates the political process in South Africa has failed.
If you live in South Africa, you need to liquidate your possessions and get out now.
I think the most interesting event in South Africa’s election is what happened in the Western Cape. The Democratic Alliance is now in the saddle there.
There is an off chance that people throughout the world will be hearing more about Helen Zille in future years…
65.9% is 0.8% off 2/3rds majority. so, this is cold comfort, as all it takes to pass legislation is to get co-operation from one of the smaller parties….
so, officially they did not get 2/3 majority, but in actuallity they may still……
Eggplant is right , sell and get out especially if you are white. South Africa will go the way of Rhodesia. The whites who gave up power will reap the consequences of their poor sense of power politics.
Even if they can not get decent money take any offer and leave for Europe or USA.
They will lose the properties and their lives if they stay.
I don’t think South Africa will necessarily go the way of Zimbabwe. The ANC’s position isn’t quite as powerful as the ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe.
One key difference is the Western Cape, especially Cape Town itself. If things get bad in the east, there is a chance that Cape Town would turn into a new laager.
South Africa isn’t just about black and white. One of the nasty aspects of apartheid is how it disenfranchised the Cape Coloreds whose language is Afrikaans (or some version thereof). Moreover, it is not as though the Cape Coloreds aren’t native to the Cape; their heritage is a mixture of Khoi, San, Malay, Dutch, English, Bantu, and many other groups. If anything, they would feel more trapped than white people.
If the fertilizer hits the fan, it is quite possible that Cape Town won’t fall.
Without question the treatment of the Cape Coloreds by the Afrikaaners during apartheid was an utter disgrace. However with the ANC now firmly in control of the Republic, the Afrikaaner’s previous sins are almost irrelevant. The townships around Capetown are almost as nasty as those around Joburg (which are nasty beyond belief). The Bantu can over power anything the whites or coloreds can do through shear weight of numbers. South Africa is past political solutions.
It’s time to cut-and-run if you can.
Unfortunately, ALL of Africa is in this shape, or worse, when all things are considered. I have spent time in Nigeria. On one flight home, I tried to develop a plan that would make Nigeria a functioning entity. I had met with President Obasanjo and the wife of the Vice-President. My first thought that Nigeria should be “recolonized”. But, by whom? Someone must eliminate the “big man” philosophy that dominates the country. I think that that can only be an outside power. The U.S. might be capable; but, I don’t think that is prudent.
Finally, I decided that all of Africa is not worth finding a social solution. The Chinese have the right idea. They will exploit the minerals and riches of the continent and rule the indiginent people with a heavy hand.
What happens when there are no other territories to which the dissatisfied may emigrate?
It’s not that far off. The posing Leftist expatriates of the U.S. could call Republicans “Nazis” and “Fascists” without consequence. They could come and go as they pleased, advance to top University posts, grow rich from the publishing proceeds from their rants, and retire to live on their trust accounts, royalties, and “four-oh-wonks.”
The countries to which they relocated had been for centuries famously tolerant of dissidents from OTHER countries, if not so scrupulous in protecting the rights of their own domestic critics. For those countries still smarting from lost empire, it was always satisfying regardless of local partisan issues, to be able to spit in the eye of the arrogant Americaines.
In a complex ballet of retreat before Islamic militancy, the Western European societies have been relentlessly curtailing the freedoms of their own people. Part of this is sheer pissing cowardice. Part of this is the self-imposed distortion of cradle-to-grave meddling in the lives of subjects. From those subjects, taxes are extracted by one bureaucracy in order to support another bureaucracy the task of which is to promulgate an encyclopedic list of incomprehensible rules used by the bureaucrats to justify distributing largesse as they see fit.
Those countries slide ever more deeply into real fascism and thought control. The Jihadists in their manifold incarnations press on the soft borders of “Dar-al-Harb” and exact concessions from the secular previously “liberal” regimes. We hurtle toward a worldwide community consisting of Islamic states competing for the chance to devour the European socialist states, a sprinkling of mere criminal dictatorships no one wants to bother with, and a stand-off among PRC, Russia, and India. The memory of an America to which people yearning for freedom could repair will fade along with that of the Britannia that made the seas safe for world trade for most of two centuries.
Nobody seems to care that the sharks will starve.
Eggplant:
Where would the Cape Coloreds have to go? Belgium? Holland? Suriname? The United States? They are at once very African and not regarded as “African” by black racists.
While it may be wise for individual residents of South Africa to cut and run, I doubt this would be feasible for the majority of the population of the Western Cape. That leaves the fate of Cape Province an open question, especially if it becomes a refugee center for whites and coloreds from other parts of South Africa.
This looks like a political version of an irresistable force meeting an unmovable object.
noprisoners said:
“Finally, I decided that all of Africa is not worth finding a social solution. The Chinese have the right idea. They will exploit the minerals and riches of the continent and rule the indiginent people with a heavy hand.”
Africa will not be re-colonized. There are simply too many black Africans to permit that. Instead there will be resource exploitation based upon local corruption. For example, a large international corporation will decided that it wants to mine copper in some country like the Congo. The regional chief or warlord is paid “rent” at regular intervals to lease the plot of land containing the resource. The corporation then builds a fence around the resource, The corporation defends the security perimeter with foreign mercenaries and drives out the local population at the tip of a bayonet. The corporation then brings in American, European and Asian contractor workers to perform the actual resource extraction labor (local people are NOT used as workers). After the last dollar of resource has been extracted, the foreign corporation removes it workers, leaves behind its garbage and discontinues payment to the local warlord. The local warlord gets one cent on the dollar for the value of the resources extracted (if he’s lucky) while the local population gets nothing except a mined-out moonscape. This process will continue until Africa is stripped of all of its mineral resources.
Eggplant @ 17
I concur.
NP