Pakistan’s. The Dawn is describing the pell-mell retreat that followed the government’s negotiatated agreement with Islamists. The province of Swat is now doubtful and the retreat continues towards Islamabad. The Dawn asks what happens if “the center cannot hold”.
The instrument of surrender in Swat was more or less unanimously endorsed following a perfunctory parliamentary debate — and even that gesture appeared to spook the Awami National Party and its leader, Asfandyar Wali Khan, who threatened to pull the ANP out of its alliance with Zardari’s PPP in the event of the bill being presented for discussion to the National Assembly. There appears to be a relatively simple explanation for the ANP’s nervousness: it is very, very scared of the Taliban and their allies. Which says a lot about the state of affairs in the NWFP. …
‘The government,’ according to a report in The Guardian at the weekend, ‘is urging foreign embassies to move into a diplomatic enclave that may soon resemble Baghdad’s green zone.’ Almost everyone acknowledges, however, that adequate precautions against suicide bombers are hardly feasible. The vulnerabilities of Lahore and Karachi — to say nothing of Quetta and Peshawar — have already been demonstrated, while the likes of Baitullah Mehsud are free to hold press conferences, evidently with little fear of interception.
Defeat begins in the mind. It starts in the way we think; or rather when we don’t: when it is no longer possible to call things by the right names. When the enemy becomes a “militant” and pirates become “raiders”. It continues when car bombs become romantically characterized as the “poor man’s F-16″. The end nears when mass murderers can don the mantle of victims who “progressive” lawyers hasten to defend; and indeed demand compensation for. Finally it reaches the stage when political organizations sworn to the destruction of everything become, through some alchemic passage of the Nobel Prize magic wand, esteemed “partners for peace”. The farcical part of the any catastrophe often lies in what people are urged to want; the tragic part occurs when they get it.
The Dawn concludes on a chilling note. But can things be this bad?
If the centre cannot hold, things will inevitably fall apart. Every now and then the odd flicker of hope can be glimpsed, but chances of redemption are fading fast. Once India concludes its drawn-out electoral process, it might be well-advised to make contingency arrangements for a wave of refugees driven by Islamist anarchy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Party_(Pakistan)
Bwahahaha – the Awami National Party? You mean – like the Awami League that caused East Pakistan to become Bangladesh?
Guys. Let me introduce you to my friend Yuri Bezmenov.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0cDGALhzro&feature=related
Keep watching – 2/3 way through.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Party_(Pakistan)
Bwahahaha – the Awami National Party? You mean – like the Awami League that caused East Pakistan to become Bangladesh?
Guys. Let me introduce you to my friend Yuri Bezmenov.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0cDGALhzro&feature=related
Keep watching – 2/3 way through.
I’m an Indian-American–I don’t think India is going to be too willing to take in a lot of Pakistani refugees–there’s a lot of bad blood among the Hindus, Sikhs, etc. there over the 100′s of years of Islamic aggression plus horrible violence of Partition plus numerous wars post-Independence with Pakistan. The Indian army is not very well funded/competent, but I’d bet they’ll try to seal the border more than welcome refugees.
I say this from the US, so could be wrong. . . .
Have the Pakistani’s made themselves popular refugee-wise ANY where in the world? I certainly don’t see England wanting to allow any more of them in. And Russia / China aren’t exactly in the immigration business, either.
Wouldn’t have anything to do with this would it?
http://www.asiaplus.tj/en/news/36/50129.html
I could be wrong, but I hope the Indians make some kind of goodwill gesture and pull back from the frontier (at least nominally). To do so would let the Pakistanis free up their troops to patrol their own cities and areas where they need to exert control. God knows I don’t want us (Indians or Americans) to have to do it — talk about sitting ducks.
or this?
http://tinyurl.com/cmgz2d
It looks like Pakistan has gone down the toilet. It is probably not a viable supply route. The only thing we can hope for is the securing or destruction of its nukes.
It may be possible to by-pass Pakistan as a supply route via a “Berlin airlift” style of operation. But, that would be very difficult.
With Pantywaist President as the world leader I hold very little hope in the Pakistani situation and the disposition of its nukes. Nobody will want to commit troops in to a ghetto where drugged-up fanatical gangs would detonate a car or truck nuke in the midst of said troops.
If anybody has any ideas on how to secure Pakistan speak up.
“I could be wrong, but I hope the Indians make some kind of goodwill gesture and pull back from the frontier (at least nominally).”
Why should India fall on the dagger? ISI is stepping up infiltration of terrorists into India even as Pakistan falls to the Taliban. I’m not kidding–see http://www.orbat.com
As much as I dislike Pakistan, leaders like Mushie are at least educated and somewhat cultivated–he was born in Delhi, for example. Taliban takeover is really scary, for India, for USA, for the rest of the world. It’s like Iranian revolution in ’79 with nukes!!
I get you Ravi, but many people in the blogosphere think that the Indian army can step in and restore some order. Can you imagine any circumstances (other than a totally defeated, back to the stone-age bombed out Pakistan) where that might be feasible? I see it as a red rag to every Pakistani, Islamist or not, to unite around a common historical enemy. Better to add even 30 minutes to an “invasion” schedule, a gesture saying: Sort your house out, or we will although we’d rather not. Still, I’m not of an armed forces background, just worried, so don’t flame me.
Fortunata,
Far be it from me to flame you–I’m no expert, just an anxious reader of the reports of what’s going on, coupled with some (limited) knowledge of on the ground reality.
Something is rotten in Pakistan, such that they are still deploying their army against India (which didn’t even strike back after the Mumbai/Bombay atrocity in November) rather than fighting the Taliban (I’ve stayed at one of those hotels that got hit in South Mumbai, so that *really* shook me up.) Pakistan is sending crap “para-military” troops towards the Taliban 60 miles from Islamabad, rather than their regular army troops. It’s scary. I don’t know what’s going on, but it looks like a collapse of the Pakistani regime. Something is wrong with the average Pakistani, who will not pick up a gun against the Taliban (as much as I dislike Pakistan, I don’t think the average Pakistani supports the Taliban–election results show this, too–but, they damn sure look like they’re on the verge of capitulating to them–very scary!!).
I stayed in a 5-star in Mumbai this last January, I couldn’t bear to even go and look at the old Taj, too much of a wound like Ground Zero even now. I want to see the Taliban defeated, but I’d rather the Pakistanis did it. Their civil war is coming, like it or not. I hope it doesn’t become a regional war, and I’m hoping that those reports of their nukes being “secured” are true. Someone is going to be humiliated for sure.
The average Pakistani WANTS the Taliban. After all, the military, the religious parties, the socialist parties, and the charismatic leaders have all failed. Why not the Taliban?
That it is Muslim society itself, poisoned with polygamy and tribalism, two faces of the same poisonous and failed coin, has never occurred to them.
Pakistan WILL fall, probably a lot more rapidly than anyone expects, because Pakistanis WANT IT TO FALL. They WANT the TALIBAN.
With the Taliban ruling Pakistan, you’ll see the following:
1. A Chosin Reservoir type retreat, only this time a total defeat, as there is no coastline and US Navy to pick up the troops. A massacre that Obama will be able to cite as “proof” that the US Military has “failed” (the Democrat dream since Vietnam) and that therefore lots of talking is a way to strength.
2. The Taliban giving one or two nukes to AQ to blow up US cities. They’ll owe them and won’t fear US consequences.
3. A weak set of groveling and obligatory “hate Whitey” and blame America responses from Obama when we lose several US cities, followed by a fairly abject and total surrender to Islam and measures conveniently targeting Joe Average including but not limited to: Islam the officially protected religion, offense against it being a felony, abolishment of the First and Second Amendments, legalized polygamy, suppression of Christianity, and so on.
4. An angry and vengeful Military, CIA, and other elements of society staging a coup against Obama, particularly if there are more attacks. The coup is likely to have wide support since Obama and his backers have no capacity to actually respond to terrorists blowing up US cities: they reflexively back the terrorists.
Obama has done nothing to warn Pakistanis about the dangers of being run by the Taliban. He’s not even articulated what the US response would be towards losing our cities. Instead he’s stirring up torture-memo furies, talking about prosecuting Bush officials (and now once again CIA officers and the military out of his Justice Department) while Pakistan teeters on the brink.
I’m now more convinced than ever that Obama during his student summer trip to Pakistan (between his junior and senior years at Columbia) went on Jihad. He wasn’t there for the girls and surfing. He’s probably backing a terrorist attack on the theory that it will allow him to force a surrender to Islam the way it was done in Spain and Britain. It’s why he’s gutting the military, why he wants to prosecute the CIA and Bush Administration over a caterpillar in KSM’s cell, and why he wants to close Gitmo and release the terrorists.
He’s one of them.
“but I’d rather the Pakistanis did it.”
I would rather that the Pakistanis defeat their own Taliban too, but, really, what are the chances of that? What’s your prediction? It horrifies me to say it’s less than 10%. I don’t know who’s going to sort it out–India? I doubt it–Congress Party vote bank will prevent it. USA? Seems stretched for troops. Euro-weenies? Hahaha–right. Japan? Don’t count on it.
Whiskey,
C’mon–I’m (broadly speaking) on your side on these issues, but really:
(1)there’s plenty of “covert” polygamy in supposedly monogamous societies. Maybe I’m in the midst of it and thinking it too common, but it seems pretty normative to me to have a wife and mistress, and without society collapsing b/c of the rampaging young males—please. . . .
(2) India (now, this is controversial, b/c the “progressives” will deny the distinction I’m making here between modern “diverse” India and traditional Indian culture) has been at war with Islam for 100′s of years. Kind of losing, yes–but, never wiped out. So, don’t get too apocalyptic–the Islamists aren’t *that* competent–we still have Hindu festivals in Delhi, even though the Muslims first came in in 900 AD or so. So, in the modern world, we can crush them–Yankees, Yindus, and Yehudis–for the win!!
What’s your prediction?
Ok, here’s my predictions: 1) The Pakistani army stages a coup– a new Musharraf– they push the Taliban out of these newly acquired territories and run it with an uneasy “peace” for a couple of more decades. 2) The Pakistani army stages a coup– a new Musharraf– and lose badly, mass defections and high-level coups in the army mean they cede control of NWFP and FATA, who effectively become part of Afghanistan according to ethnicity, not map lines. Baluchistan gets restive and is either let go or brutally suppressed. Either way, border fires all round and stateless Islamist movements assert control of territory. Punjab and Sind are the core “rump” state of Pakistan. Uneasy border skirmishes with their neighboring states.3)The Pakistani army stages a coup– a new Musharraf– and lose badly, secret high level defections drag the Indians (and others) into an intervention, hopefully not including nuclear exchanges. Note, in any of these, it doesn’t really matter what the civilian government, as currently constituted, really does. Even under scenario number 1, they’re a weak nominal force. All eyes to the army.
“Something is rotten in Pakistan, such that they are still deploying their army against India (which didn’t even strike back after the Mumbai/Bombay atrocity in November) rather than fighting the Taliban (I’ve stayed at one of those hotels that got hit in South Mumbai, so that *really* shook me up.)” –RaviT
From what I have read, India did not retaliate against Pakistan for Mumbai/Bombay atrocity because India was afraid of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. That is why I believe it is very important to either secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal or destroy it.
Once, some of the nukes fall into radical hands very bad things will happen. Who will get blasted? Will it be India? Will it be US troops? Will it be moderates in Pakistan? I don’t know but the situation is dangerous.
I doubt this represents anything more than the Pakistani Army expressing its displeasure about something or other against the current nominally civilian government, by having its security forces stand aside to let the mountain barbarians posture closer to the capital. The lowlanders in that part of the world have had the power for the past thousand years.
I.e., it’s that the Pakistani Army won’t fight at the moment, not that it can’t fight.
I don’t think the average Pakistani wants the Taliban at all. The problem is that the average Pakistani doesn’t want to fight anybody, especially not anybody who calls himself a Muslim. Muslims are scared of fitna. They don’t want civil war. The problem, of course, is that the Taliban use this fear and press it to their advantage.
When it comes to Taliban-controlled areas in Pakistan, the United States is not attacking them. Why not? If Americans are too scared to attack the Taliban in areas Pakistan does not control, wouldn’t that amplify fear among Pakistanis?
If the Pakistani military is unwilling to fight, its prestige becomes undermined. No military ever wants jokes about its rifle that has “never been fired, only been dropped once”.
Pakistan is in no position to argue with the United States. Either Pakistan will assert control over Taliban regions or somebody else will. The very rise of the Taliban essentially means that Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent has become void. If the Pakistani government blackmails the United States with the threat of “Give us infinite amounts of money or else we will let the Taliban control our nukes”, any wise statesman would regard that as a de facto declaration of war.
Pakistan, the trailer park of the middle east. Can’t get along with anyone, must have nuclear weapons. To think that genocide has been so discredited. To hell with these magots.
I have some friends that are Pakistani believe it or not. They giggle when I refer to Pakistan as a terrorist state. They wont be laughing forever.
This reluctance to kill Muslims is a whole lot of bollocks.
The Pakistani Army had no remorse in killing 1 million Bangladeshis (most of whom were Muslims) within 10 months in 1971.
Muslim solidarity did not and is not preventing even now the Army/PAF from mercilessly bombing the Baluchs.
This is clearly a military coup in sly. By forcing the civilian government to grovel before the Talibans, the Army is discrediting it and creating a situation where people of Pakistan would welcome the army back into power.
If the several commenters saying the Pak army is sandbagging are right, another good thing is that with the USA left now in power it won’t again mercilessly badger the new Musharef to abdicate.
Does anybody realise that we actually elected “The Manchurian Candidate”?
DWB/24
That’s an old news to us.
But… he is special kind of the Manchurian Candidate–the people that placed him took a calculated risk… One of the problems with narcissism is the diseased never know when they are over their head. And they always hire help that is dumber.
but to be optimistic for a sec, imminent destruction of the pakistani government is probably a sufficient reason for US invasion of some kind into pakistan.
unfortunately, things are bad, and O is president.
that’s a great point holsinger/larsen. how’re “hundreds” of taliban going to take over, anyway?
There is a Pakistani joke, “all countries have armies, but here, an army has a country” (Frederick the freat said it originally about Prussia. Now it seems the army is inactive. It may be that the division of Pakistan into 2 or 3 smaller states might be the best long term option out of several unattractive options. If one of the substates adopted sensible economic policies it would ultimately provide a good example to the region & none of them would even try to compete with India militarily. The tough bit is trying to ensure the Bombs don’t dall into the hands of any one of the substates but in Ukraine & Kazakhstan we have examples of countries that did not try to retain inherited Bombs.
Marginally on topic…this plus previous thread. It seems to me we are beginning the “campaigning season” of old. His O’ness has been observed, found wanting, and all heck is busting loose.
Like anyone at BC is surprised!
Hold on, it will be a wild and probably fatal ride.
Whiskey…God, I hope you are too pessimistic…
Wait until there is a gap between control by Taliban and loss of control by Paki government. When this occurs the nuke workers and security will bug out at that point we target the nuke sites with conventional hard target penetrating bombs. The site will become radioactive as the nukes are broken open. put a ring of steel around the site via Tac Air, land Rangers or the element of an MEU/SOC on the sites and contain, destroy or move the nukes from the area.
Taliban desires to obtain the nukes will be like fly paper and as the Taliban surge in to take the site over get shot down in large groups.
If the Pakistani military tries to intervene take them apart in detail.
after nukes are secure we retrograde out and leave the pakis to their bloody islamic fate.
End of story.
Ravi writes: “Something is rotten in Pakistan.”
Whiskey writes: “They WANT the TALIBAN . . . . I’m now more convinced than ever that Obama during his student summer trip to Pakistan (between his junior and senior years at Columbia) went on Jihad.”
Alexis writes: “I don’t think the average Pakistani wants the Taliban at all.”
I remember well reading the articles of western journalists covering the muhjihdeen in Afghanistan during the ward of Soviet occupation. The taxi drivers delivering the journalists from Pakistan would extoll the pure virtues of the Taliban, but the drivers would hide their own beloved cassette music and decorations prior to crossing over into Afghanistan. The allure of pure Islam seems to be very powerful. Even the man-in-the-street may not be able to resist, just as Marxist radicals want to give ‘real’ communism a chance, as opposed to the corrupt versions that are always failing. To do other than give pure Islam a chance is, in some way, impious and unfaithful. So the Pakistanis want the Taliban. but they don’t want it either. It’s all perfectly clear!
The Danish cartoon of the Prophet with the bomb turban was quite on target.
Given the powerful allure of the muhajideen production worldwide to Muslims in the early 80′s (executive producer, USA), I would not be surprised to find out that the young Dunham/Obama was doing a little searching of his roots and flirting with the holy warriors.
Why is Pakistan falling to the Taliban? I recognize things have never been great there, but what is the Taliban offering that the Pakistani government cannot provide?
#22 seems the likely answer. Who benefits from this?
With “The One” in charge, this is only going to get worse. Like Joe I’d really like to know what the Taliban have to offer that makes them preferable to the current state.
http://willstuff.wordpress.com
Whiskey/14 — “With the Taliban ruling Pakistan, you’ll see the following … A Chosin Reservoir type retreat, only this time a total defeat, as there is no coastline and US Navy to pick up the troops.”
That is one of the scenarios that worries me too, Whiskey. Although it is impossible to say at the moment whether Obama is deliberately setting that situation up, or instead is simply stumbling into it through incompetence.
Either way, Obama would clearly be glad to see the US military demeaned. Of course, his risk is that an angry US military might then decide its first duty is to the Constitution, not to the current Commander In Chief.
Does all this end with a military takeover in the US as well as in Pakistan?
I wouldn’t write the obituary for Pakistan yet. It’s been falling apart since 1947. Even South Vietnam lasted over 20 years before it finally fell.
We’re not going to lose all our troops in Afghanistan. Russia and the central Asian republics aren’t going to strand them. They’d certainly help us leave in defeat.
Let’s quit projecting our fears onto the situation and look at what’s actually happening.
Pakistan has a very large army but isn’t using it to defeat the Taliban. Why? This is the central question. Fear of India, certainly, but even so it seems stupid to have so much force sit by while district after district is lost. I think it’s partly government paralysis, partly appeasement of a guerrilla movement that’s perceived as more dangerous to the US than Pakistan. Perhaps the government feels that it’s better for NATO to lose soldiers fighting the Taliban than for Pakistan to make an unnecessary sacrifice.
I wouldn’t bet a fig for Pakistan’s long term success. However, it has quite a lot of life left in it. Additionally, I think the Taliban’s appeal is limited to the tribal territories. I don’t think most of the 170 million people in Pakistan really want to live in a fundamentalist state. Of course, neither do most Iranians. So the question is will the Taliban be opposed or will they simply walk into a vacuum? I don’t know, but it’s not an easy question to answer.
The ugly (but least-bad of actual possibilities) scenario I am hoping for is that Pakistan breaks up into a NW Frontier (that probably merges with Afghanistan under the Taliban), Balochistan, and a Kashmir/Punjab/Sind “mini-India” that possibly de-Partitions and rejoins the Indian state.
India can then manage the eastern portion of Pakistan and we can work with the Taliban to prevent Al Qaeda-like groups from using Pashtunistan to launch further attacks against India or the West.
I don’t want the USA to work with the Taliban, and I’m sure that India doesn’t want the headache of managing East Pakistan, but I don’t see survival of the current state as a realistic likelyhood.
There are two worse scenarios. One is that Pakistan breaks up, no one helps them, and the whole region devolves into Somalia on the Indus. The other is that Pakistan’s government loses all control over the territories, no one helps them, and the region devolves into Somalia on the Indus, but no one admits it and foreign aid props of the “Mayor of Islamabad” for years and years. Neither of these scenarios will bring any sort of long term solution.
Whiskey @14
I’m now more convinced than ever that Obama during his student summer trip to Pakistan (between his junior and senior years at Columbia) went on Jihad.
Barack Obama attended a Los Angeles college during his freshman and sophomore years and then was accepted to attend Columbia University in New York City.
While living in Los Angeles, his roommate was a student from Pakistan, and through him Obama met several other students from South Asia.
His mother and sister were living in Indonesia, so Obama decided to travel around the world, through Indonesia, when he moved from Los Angeles to New York.
After visiting his mother and sister in Indonesia, he continued through Pakistan and India, where he visited the families of two of his Los Angeles acquaintances.
The only element of this trip that is questionable is why he did not visit Kenya, where the family of his alleged biological father lived.
What man doesnt want his wife and daughters to stay in the house? If the ISI is rife with Talibanny and or sympathizers then the special and regular forces are as well.
Who thought this would stop when they gave them SWAT?
It took me a couple of years but I did eventually realize that you can not really effectively negotiate for something(peace in this case) in which the other party has no interest. I think it was just as I was coming out of my hippy stage and I thought I would sell my ’72 bug with the open to the road floor boards feature. I could not settle on a price with my brother-in-law and ended up giving it away.
Barry 0351:
Great Scenario if only we had a CINC that would pull the trigger.
But, alas, we don’t. That is the crux of the problem and it is a frightening one. It doesn’t help to have the most powerful military the world has ever seen , if the Commander in Chief refuses to use it.
It will be interesting to watch, most likely in horror, if the pantywaist twins, Obama and Gates, put up any resistance at all in dealing with the deteriorating situations in both Georgia and Pakistan.
Petraeus had better watch his back, Obama would love to leave him twisting in the wind in a military debacle.
Pardon me, but I need to puke.
This unfolding catastrophe in Pakistan is simply the final stripping off of the thinnest veneer that Pakistan was (or ever has been) a “moderate” nation of Muslims, or was (or ever truly had been) an “ally” of the West.
Pakistan is and always has been a Islamic Jihad Nation.
Pakistan was established by Islamic Jihad.
Pakistan is dedicated to Islamic Jihad. While its notoriously corrupt (marginally secular) military has siphoned off many billions of filthy kuffir dollars over the decades (ostensibly to fight the hated communists), they have always used the dollars they looted from naive American administrations to fund Jihad in India and Afghanistan.
Never forget that Pakistan, with dollars from the US and Europe, and recruits and Imams and more loot from Saudi Arabia and the UAE created the Taliban and Al Qaida. They were one of three nations that diplomatically recognized the Taliban, and refused to sever ties until the U.S. invasion had commenced in Afghanistan. Pakistan built the first “Islamic Bomb”, a weapon with which they existentially threaten India, and use to continue blackmailing concessions and money from the West. Pakistan in the nation that let the “nuclear Genie” out of the bottle, and spread nuclear technologies to North Korea, Iran, Libya, and certainly others.
Since inception, Pakistan has genocidally “cleansed” itself of “non-believers” (which includes ALL non-Muslims; Christians, Hindus, Sikhs, et al) until Muslims now account for 95% of its current population. When it began, its demographics more or less mirrored that of India proper, the nation from which it stole its land from.
Sadly for India, they didn’t expel every last Muslim from their territory into that vile sewer of Pakistan when it was established. After stealing the territory for Pakistan, enough Muslims remained on Indian soil for the Islamic population to swell above 100,000,000. That population through steady ongoing Jihad will eventually subvert new territories of India and demand new homelands for Muslims. Not being destroyed, the cancer continues to spread. And now Al Qaida is that much closer to obtaining nukes.
Pakistan is not a state.
Pakistan is a bunch of aristocratic families jockeying for power, and the Taliban, ISI, and Army are tools in this conflict.
thing is, chief of general staff kiyani probably could – by virtue of his position & history – impose a military dictatorship, but have any of you guys read interviews with him? he sounds like a neurotic and incompetent for the job. hm. $10 says holbrooke & clinton & biden are urging him to figure something out before the Awami National Party decides to make an “extravagant demonstration of its independence” and pull the coalition apart. in any case that poster above makes a good point who points out that any change in the capitol will simply postpone a reckoning that the taliban appear capable of imposing short of their consciencious annihilation. i’d say this would be a great opportunity to test, Putin-like, whether the international community really *would* give a crap if the relevant militaries – in an area that is already a no-go for cable news networks – would just set about exterminating the worst actors and crippling the tribes…
twobyfour
… they always hire help that is dumber
The corollary is also true. One mark of a competent manager is that they are confident enough to hire good people. Carter crawled into office partly on the denigration of Gerald Ford as an incompetent klutz. It was an early application of the techniques that were refined into pure bile for the destruction of Sarah Palin. In reality of course President Ford was an intelligent man and one of the finest natural athletes ever to hold his office. His greatest peculiarity was that, even more than the similarly unelected Harry Truman, he lacked the obsession with personal power that marks everyone who sets out to become President. Consider who his Cabinet choices were and compare them to the equivalents that Obama has foisted on the country. He had Edward Levi for Attorney General, Donald Rumsfeld did well at Defense and Eliot Richardson at Commerce. He was not dramatic but he replaced Nixon’s weaker cabinet picks.
Regarding Pakistan, at this point I am a little surprised that David Petreaus is allowing himself to be used by Obama.
AS has been said upthread, Pakistan is controlled and the most of the land owned by a relatively handful of families. The Taliban are using populist “land re-distribution” to gain power with the “masses”. Hence their growing power with the landless peasants in the Northwest Territories. I’m sure this is popular with the Pakistanis that have nothing or next to nothing (most of them), but once the Taliban are in, there is no way they can be removed short of major force by an outside power.
Iran on the Indus is a pretty apt analogy.
Interesting times ahead, no?
Are any of the major news networks or cable networks even covering this? Where’s Christine Amanpour when you really need her mug on the screen? Quick, find that woman a parachute!
It’s true that the Pakistani military committed atrocities in Bangladesh. Bengalis were also regarded as subhuman by military men from West Pakistan, much as black Muslims in Sudan are regarded as subhuman by the janjaweed.
Much of the Pakistani military is ethnically Pushtun. Add to that how the ISI is in bed with the Taliban, and Pakistan has become a classic Sorceror’s Apprentice. It is shocking that Pakistanis should regard the Taliban as Muslims at all, especially given how the Taliban are more than happy to label any and all of their Muslim enemies as “apostates”.
Pakistan ought to regard it as a sacred duty to rid itself of the Taliban. Yet it doesn’t. Does al-Qaeda and the Taliban live under a Pakistani nuclear umbrella? Why should the United States be deterred by Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella when the terrorists are not deterred by ours?
An eye-opening search; [china pakistan relationship]. And then sub ‘military’ for ‘relationship’. A major player is being insufficiently reckoned?
Coming up, a Moslem Thugocracy with Atomics; from then on we’ll be wondering when we’ll awaken to a new 8000 degree day. I can just hear Obama saying, “don’t worry about it” just as Chamberlain said, “Peace in our Time.” Within the next 4 years, shite will hit the fan.
Ravi,
I really enjoy having your thoughts and viewpoint here.
Thanks.
Jamie Irons
Okay, that got through. Now I’ll see if the long post goes through with this short additional header.
This one is not credible. Rather it is the Pakistani army trying to roll either the nominal “civilian government” by threatening not to protect them from the mountain barbarians, or to roll the Obama administration with this classic game from Blazing Saddles when the town discovers their new sheriff is black, and all pull their guns on him:
“
This is not likely to work given that Richard Holbrooke is the Obama administration’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The thing to look for is a major factional fight within the Pakistani army. That would be pretty obvious if and when it happens. Andrew Krepinevich well describes a scenario for that in his recent 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century.
NONE of the threat indicators described in Krepinevich’s Pakistani collapse scenario is present at the moment. I.e., what is going on now is the Pakistani army trying to get something from either their own government, or from the U.S. government.
What we are seeing is almost certainly a charade.
Okay, that got through. Now I’ll see if the long post goes through with this short additional header.
This one is not credible. Rather it is the Pakistani army trying to roll either the nominal “civilian government” by threatening not to protect them from the mountain barbarians, or to roll the Obama administration with this classic game from Blazing Saddles when the town discovers their new sheriff is black, and all pull their guns on him:
“
This is not likely to work given that Richard Holbrooke is the Obama administration’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The thing to look for is a major factional fight within the Pakistani army. That would be pretty obvious if and when it happens. Andrew Krepinevich well describes a scenario for that in his recent 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century.
NONE of the threat indicators described in Krepinevich’s Pakistani collapse scenario is present at the moment. I.e., what is going on now is the Pakistani army trying to get something from either their own government, or from the U.S. government.
What we are seeing is almost certainly a charade.
Buddy @50…
America effectively owns the German submarine works!
http://www.rense.com/general21/mil.htm
“One Equity Partners, the private equity arm of Bank One Corporation of the United States, on March 12 purchased a 75-percent share of stake of German shipyard Howaldswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW). HDW is the builder of the German 209-class submarine favored by the Taiwan navy.”
The Israelis prefer the Type 206 and variants which are based on the Type 209 export-only model. Plainly the 206 is the high-end version.
Between German and American taxpayer subsidies these subs are costing the Israelis very little.
Plainly, rather than build a domestic version of the world class diesel-electric boat we just bought HDW out!
Sweet.
Reading that Dawn piece one gets visions of Mao set loose upon the countryside.
The pervasive wealth inequality maintained by the Paki elites must now be their undoing.
I wouldn’t even bet that the Pakistani Army would maintain its ranks in the face of this wealth redistribution.
Requests for Western funds express the staggering thirst for flight-capital — the end is nigh.
The best bet for Islamabad would be to renounce sovereignty over Pashtunistan and Baluchistan.
The notion that these zones in any way contribute to the defense of Pakistan should war with India come is absurd. Her atomic weapons provide unlimited psychic depth. These alienated societies drain Pakistan to no purpose.
Should Baluchistan and Pashtunistan merge with Afghanistan then real progress might be had. This new state could join the ‘stans to the sea. This would have strategic import — think of the exports.
Regardless of the nukes, wouldn’t we have to go into Pakistan if it fell because of the lack of supply lines for our troops in Afghanistan?
#53 Blert
Yeah, we have been trying to get that since the turn of the century, but until Merkel became Chancellor the German government put as many roadblocks in the way as they could. While Israel uses HDW subs for its at sea nuclear deterrent [cruise missiles] and I am sure it would like more; the big hold up was that Taiwan has wanted to update its submarine force, with US help. Since we do not build non-nuclear subs here anymore as a matter of Navy policy [but there is a shipyard in Pascagoula that was still capable of doing just that, at least before Ingalls was bought by Grumman] any such help would have to involve foreign purchase. The Social Democrats did not want to upset the Chinese, so they blocked the sale.
The problem is that it is now too late. There is no chance in Sheol that this administration will do anything to aid Israel for anything. Similarly, for Taiwan. An American company now controls it, but it will never be used to aid those poor souls who actually believe we are their allies. The future of any such country that has neither the means nor will to defend itself is going to be shown in the next few days in Georgia.
It is a pity because I really would like for Taiwan to have a couple of cruise missile subs like Israel has. It would perhaps make the inevitable Chinese attack prohibitive, since there will be no US aid if China attacks.
Subotai Bahadur
Wretchard asks, as did Yeats, what happens if the center cannot hold Here we get our answer:
William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Taiwan had better hook up with the Spanish Navy.
They’ve got some nice subs, too.
I have been having a very difficult time posting a long message and here try a shorter version, with the hilarious quotation from Blazing Saddles cut out, plus all html codes. Post on the merits follows:
This one is not credible. Rather it is the Pakistani army trying to roll either the nominal “civilian government” by threatening not to protect them from the mountain barbarians, or to roll the Obama administration with this classic game from Blazing Saddles when the town discovers their new sheriff (Bart) is black, and all pull their guns on him,
so Bart pulls out his own gun, holds it to his head and basically says, “Don’t shoot, or I’ll shoot the nigger!”
The townsfolk react to this as if an innocent man is being held hostage, and let him go. Bart then places his hand over his own mouth, drags himself through the door into his office in the jail, and says:
“Ooh, baby, you are so talented! And they are so dumb!”
I.e., the apparent terrorist threat to the Pakistani government is just a charade where the Pakistani army lets the terrorists pretend to be a threat to it in order to extract concessions from either their own government, or from the United States.
This is not likely to work on us given that Richard Holbrooke is the Obama administration’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is a real hard case. It might though, given how incompetent President Obama and his advisers seem to be in national security matters.
The thing to really worry about is a major factional fight within the Pakistani army, with Islamic nutballs controlling ground troops instead of only elements of the ISI (Inter-Service Intelligence). That would be pretty obvious if and when it happens. Andrew Krepinevich well describes a scenario for that in his recent 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century.
NONE of the threat indicators described in Krepinevich’s Pakistani collapse scenario is present at the moment. I.e., what is going on now is the Pakistani army trying to get something from either their own government, or from the U.S. government. What we are seeing is almost certainly a charade.
#55 Rob
I am not as optimistic as some. If you believe in a best case solution if we lose the supply lines to Karachi; read Xenophon’s Anabasis or a history of Chosin Reservoir. We will have unchallenged air superiority [barring outside intervention], which might enable us to deliver enough supplies to get our people and some of the equipment out if we cannot hold the supply line to retreat down.
For a worst case scenario, read up on the Brit’s first Afghan War. I think it will tend more towards the latter than the former. I won’t even mention the consequences of the Paks “losing” their nukes; but I suspect that we will find out where they are one at a time. I have no fear for the quality of our troops,albeit some of our NATO ‘allies’ are going to drag us down [think Rumanian troops during the Soviet counter-offensive at Stalingrad]; but modern warfare is a matter of logistics and it is a long and difficult way from Afghanistan to Karachi. I am glad that all my family, friends, and former co-workers in service are not in Afghanistan right now.
As we discussed here a few weeks ago, the collapse of Pakistan makes Afghanistan untenable. Operating alternate supply lines through and at the sufferance of either of our worst enemies, Iran or Russia, would be strategic stupidity monumental even by Democrat standards. We will be lucky to get our troops out. The Russians and Chinese will pick over the bazaar the Afghans will make of the equipment we leave behind.
Anybody here think it is a total coincidence that Georgia, Pakistan, and Iran are cooking up all at once to distract ‘Teh Lightworker’ from his waffles?
I wonder, with some dread, what the second hundred days will bring?
Subotai Bahadur
It’s the last hundred days that terrifies me.
Habu,
Of course this couplet of Yeats’ poem has been cited almost ad nauseam, nonetheless, it does seem to characterize the past 18 months in our great nation, doesn’t it? (The recent “Tea Parties,” the Napa version of which I reported on via InstaPundit, may be a stirring of better impulses. Not that I am among “the best,” far from it.)
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity…
Jamie Irons
Concur that the impact of a US regulated entity buying the submarine shipyard might be to prevent the Israelis or Taiwanese from getting more boats. It is unlikely that the Dutch will do business with them instead. Maybe the Israelis can borrow some watercraft from the French again? Maybe they could sell some Jericho missiles, and warheads, to Taipei and Tokyo. The Israelis really do need a few more submarines.
http://tinyurl.com/d7x5a7
Following 9/11, when U.S. advisors persuaded Pakistani scientists to adopt some key features that add security to U.S. nuclear command procedures, tension rose over whether to install Permission Action Links (PALs), an electronic lock that renders a weapon null and void until political commanders relinquish control of the special codes that allow the weapon to be turned on, several sources said. In addition, the weapons could not be used without employing a dual-key system, meaning that a single rogue commander could not initiate their use.
In brief, the PALs would prevent the unauthorized use of a nuclear weapon by an aberrant member of the military, and they would prevent use of such a weapon by terrorists, and therefore are important, U.S. officials said.
Yet disputes arose immediately. There were legal implications about sharing such sensitive military technology with a foreign power, and some senior U.S. officials balked at using the PALs, thinking they would give the Pakistanis too much insight into America’s own nuclear war fighting system. “The Paks are smart. What they can see and examine, they can re-engineer,” said one.
For their part, the Pakistanis feared that American scientists would insert a ‘dead switch’ into the PALs, which would freeze the weapons if someone attempted their use, similar to being able to stall a stolen car from a remote position.
…the proof will soon be in the pudding. The above article is fascinating.
My hope at this point is that at the end of the day the history of the Administration of the Man from nowhere who had accomplished Nothing will be preceded with a quote not from Yeats but Shakespeare.
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
Scottish Play, Act V, scene 5
A few Jerichos pointed at the Kremlin may be Israel’s hole card.
The collapse of Pakistan wouldn’t make Afghanistan untenable as much as it would make it relatively insignificant.
Be thankful for the improved relations with India brought by Pres Bush; hopefully Pres Obama won’t screw those up anymore than he already has.
What do we make of today’s news, that the Taliban have moved out of Buner? The Pakis have sent 250 paramilitaries in. The Daily Telegraph calls it a “tactical retreat”. So what’s it all about? I sense some grandstanding going on, on both sides. Is this a co-ordinated act, to wring more aid and attention for the army from the US?
The Long War Journal – nice map
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/04/rangers_deployed_to.php
“A senior intelligence official said the lack of response by the Pakistani government and military ensures a bloody fight. “The longer the state has deferred taking the Taliban head on, the stronger the Taliban has gotten,” the official said. “Any attempt to put the Taliban genie back in the bottle will result a major bloodbath. Assuming the Pakistanis make an effort to defend themselves, that is.”
Some US officials have expressed frustration at Pakistan’s shifting of the blame for the Taliban insurgency. Pakistani officials have pointed fingers at Afghanistan and India for fueling the Taliban; they have also claimed that the US is withholding funding and advanced weapons. However, since 2001, the US has provided more than $10 billion in aid to Pakistan, of which several billion dollars are unaccounted for.
A senior military officer said the Pakistani complaints about a lack of advanced weapons systems such as F-16s and attack helicopters is “nonsense.”
“The Pakistani Army doesn’t need airplanes and night vision goggles to fight the Taliban,” the official said. “First and foremost, they need to grow backbones, pick up their weapons, and fight it out. And if they don’t do it soon, they might not have a country left to fight for.”"
#44 Morton:
It’s been clear since about noon on 9/11/01 that the enemy center of gravity was in the two nations of Saudi/Yemen and Pakistan. I even made an internet post that afternoon that, just as Nixon had popularized Hunan shrimp that Bush would soon be dining on chicken vindaloo.
I really saw no way out of raising a 90-division Army to conquer, occupy, and reconstruct the heartland of jihad, in collaboration with India. If we had done that, the war would already be over. As it is, it’s a war we still have to fight, but our starting position is incalculably worse.
Why do you suppose Bush indulged his childish fantasy about our “friends” in Saudi and Pak?
Fortunata:
as Lenin said, sometimes you have to take one step back to take two steps forward.
but who knows – at least on paper the Pak army could supposedly do wondrous things. if they’re trying to time this closely in order to husband maximum legitimacy for their incipient dictatorship, well that’s fine, but then what will they do the day after tomorrow when everyone realizes nothing has changed? the army is the last institution pakistan has, and if it is discreditted by clever islamo-leninists…
i wonder when the world will be honest enough to again to say frankly: the only cogent way to articulate the problem that actually exists is: Pakistan is absolutely *full* of “Pakistanis.”
#60 blert
Most of the endgame scenarios for the last 100 days of the man who calls himself “Barack Obama” are horrific. The least bad one, an interim government with fast elections, is the least likely right now, but this may change as the overreaching continues and escalates.
The most probable scenario is also the worst, some sort of futile rebellion with or without a Reichstag fire, followed by the secret police and the terror squads..
We’ll just have to wait and see.
RaviT #16- there is a lot of de facto polygamy in Latin America, and to what extent it contributes to social problems I can’t say, but it can’t help.
It’s nowhere near the Islamic level though- it consists of having a rich guy set up a young woman in an apartment. She can and probably does have a young, poor, macho boyfriend on the side, who might enjoy spending the rich guy’s money.
On the other hand if the old rich guy has three excessive wives and keeps them locked up in his house, they are inaccessible altogether, and that creates a lot more trouble.
There is alot of paranoid writing above that doesn’t have proof of Obama’s disloyalty at all. Furthermore, Obama has sown himself far more smarter than Carter ever dreamed of being. Obama can think of several theatres simoultaneously. He has shown not a candidate for some of the paranoia and xenophobia above, but rather that he had to be friendly to a few insignificant nobodies to get ahead in the southside of Chicago. You should remember that Abraham Lincoln came to power similarly. Some of the corrupt elements, by which Lincoln came to power were NO indication of how Lincoln would end up running the country. I’d rather have a smart non-ideologue capable of thinking on several levels simoultaneously, that to have some cheaply macho right-winger who couldn’t think his way out of a paper bag. Last, there are comments above that are nothing short of treasonous, let alone dumb.
IP @73…
You need the Bezmenov cure…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0cDGALhzro&feature=related
Yuri speaks from the inside.
and so what if it’s paranoid? this is highly entertaining. it’s not our fault if hiphop killed pop music and fortunate useful idiots smothered everything else. join the game!
IP, I might be able to understand your post better if you use a grammar check next time.
If you are comparing Obama to Lincoln, the only thing that I see that they have in common so far is that they are both lawyers from Illinois. So I would be careful comparing him to arguably one of the top US Presidents of all time yet.
Obama=non-ideologue. How can you call an Alinsky disciple a non-ideologue?
Lincoln=Team of Rivals in his cabinet
Obama=intellects like Biden and Holder
Obama can think on several levels? Fine, tell me where he is having success on any of those levels other than retaining a margin of his popularity gap.
BC is a site that thrives on facts and dismisses name calling. Try to live up to that next time.
Treason doth never prosper.
What is the reason?
For if it doth prosper,
none dare call it treason.
– Sir John Harrington
There are at least two possible flashpoints, and in both cases the fundamentally more peaceful side is likely to be the first to press the button. The two I mean are Israel vs. Iran and Pakistan vs. India. Currently, the second is the more dangerous by far as both sides already have nukes.
I hope that when (not if) the Asian nuclear war comes, that the USA has the good collective sense to stay out of it. Why? Simple. If the USA starts missile-rattling then Russia might do the same – and they have more weapons, such as their control of the energy supply for most of Europe, that might actually get used. Furthermore, both nuclear superpowers being at a higher state of alert means more chance of a lethal accident.
I am reminded that the launch of a sounding rocket by Norway nearly started World War III, and there is always the chance – by no means negligible – that some random event such as a repeat of Tunguska or the Brazilian or Norwegian strikes, this time in a more populated area, might be the match that lights the fuse. The odds against this are actually quite good; but I for one don’t like the size of the pot in that gamble.
So what does the USA and the rest of the West do? Simple, but subtle and typically underhanded behaviour from Anglos; cut down the money tree that supplies the material for Islamic terrorism, by going all-out for energy independence from Middle Eastern oil. This would also have the useful side effect of weakening Russia, and at least one of the routes to independence would have many other benefits. Once done – blow all the pipelines leaving any and all Muslim country(ies), lay a minefield in the Persian Gulf and let them see whether oil is edible.
The cost of even a really huge programme of this sort would be hardly noticeable, compared to the cost of either the Iraq war or the bailout, and would actually be an investment (also in contrast with these two).
i imagine it IS a shock, to someone invested in Saint Obama Over All, to stumble in here where he Ain’t Obama After All.
61. Jamie Irons
I concur wholeheartedly but I figured since this is a family site some youn’ins might need their first administration of Yeats.
Ya never know.
Best
Habu
#59 & # 73
Mentioning “distractions” and “Teh Lightworker”‘s waffles is treasonous???!!!??
COOL!
Or is it distracting Teh Lightworker from his waffles that is treasonous?
“Caesar had his Brutus; Charles the First his Cromwell; and George the Third may profit by their example. If this be treason, make the most of it!”
I suspect that my namesake’s master would be greatly amused.
Subotai Bahadur
“Why do you suppose Bush indulged his childish fantasy about our “friends” in Saudi and Pak?”
- Because he and Rumsfeld most definitely did not want to M,T and E a 90 Division Army, and;
- He thought that he could cultivate cost-effective centers of influence (i.e., Musharraf / House of Saud) who would then become our allies against militant Islam.
buddy – fair enough, but i wonder how early that build-up began, did he mention that?
dan i think we on the wrong thread but no, Rutledge didn’t say –typical too-short interview –
#47, Life of the Mind…if you’ve read down this far, how is Petraeus being “used” by Obama? Serious question.
#85 Mike in Denver
I am not speaking for Life of the Mind in any way. I saw the question, and pondered it for a while myself and have some thoughts. If my intrusion is unwelcome, please feel free to disregard, as I am not speaking from any position of authority or special knowledge, just as I see it.
Petraeus is arguably the most respected person in the military right now. He is somewhat of an icon to part of the Conservative movement, having reclaimed victory in Iraq from the jaws of Congress. It has gone so far that on some threads elsewhere, there is mention of “Petraeus for Military Governor”. They are not talking about for Iraq, Afghanistan, or Pakistan. He is not responsible for that, and has done absolutely nothing to encourage that. This is spontaneous and therefore even more of a threat to the ego of a certain politician.
Further, if he were to retire, and therefore be free to participate in politics; he would be a figure for conservatives to rally around in opposition to Obama. This holds whether he joins the Republicans, or [and the RNC is shaking in their golf shoes at this] if he operates outside the Republican party.
By placing Petraeus in charge of Afghanistan, and yet retaining total control over resources, if Afghanistan goes Tango Uniform Petraeus will, Obama hopes, be blamed for the losses and his popularity will fade.
Keep in mind that Obama is wholly and completely a political creature who treats holding the presidency as part of the campaign. Further, he is not above unethical behavior [ask Hillary's people], and he fears anyone who can overshadow his Messiah-ness. Petraeus will be left holding the bag. I suspect that he knows this, but he is enough of a professional and a patriot that he will not turn aside from the path of duty.
I myself am far from sanguine about the prospects of our forces in Afghanistan. Given the threat to the one supply line that can keep his force going, if I were he [and I do not pretend to have as much military ability as he has in his little fingernail], I would have my staff prepping plans for a fighting withdrawel. As with Anabasis, the goal will be Thallassa!, the sea. If they can get to the sea, the Navy can bring them home safe.
The question, of course, is whether when TSHTF the Lightworker will allow him the freedom to operate, or if he will leave him hanging until it is too late.
Just my opinion, and once again I DO NOT speak for LOTM. If it is unwelcome, just tell me to bugger off.
Subotai Bahadur
Thanks,Subotai. Much to ponder here.
Subotai Bahadur,
Not only do I agree with every word that you wrote, I would like to claim that in various places I have already said most of that.
“By placing Petraeus in charge of Afghanistan, and yet retaining total control over resources, if Afghanistan goes Tango Uniform Petraeus will, Obama hopes, be blamed for the losses and his popularity will fade.”
By changing the rules of engagement *after* Petraeus has been put in charge, Obama can then prosecute him for war crimes and lock his eagled ass up.
Baitullah Mehsud is very smart military tactician and he had only 100 troops in Bruno that had defacto control or the district. The police and military there have no backbone and was easily intimidated.
When the PTB in Islamabad moved troops fast to counter the Taliban just did an ambush to prove they could and retreated.
The Taliban do not have the logistical and manposwer to take on regular Pak military, so why is the military so hesitant to take them on? If it is a matter of will Mehsud will be the ruler in a couple of years.
maybe it’s the enlisted men, not the officer corp –guys with family in the villages, hesitant to endanger them.