Is revolution brewing in Georgia? And will Russia get involved? Another memory of Beirut, this time from Jamie Kirchik at the City Journal. Jamie contrasts the March 14 rally, with the Hezbollah rally a few days that followed. He attended both and contrasts the movements behind the symbolism. The Asia Times RSS feed reports that “Going far beyond previous policies of mindless containment, the Barack Obama administration plans to ease the standoff on Iran’s nuclear program – and stage a comeback in Central Asia – by offering Tehran access to a global nuclear fuel bank in Kazakhstan. Tehran has welcomed the strategy, and the likely involvement of Japan serves up other geopolitical dimensions favorable to the United States. Moscow is less enthusiastic.” I think President Obama will be challenged very soon across a broad front. In the coming months, Hope might not make an appearance, but Change undoubtedly will.
Stratfor describes what’s brewing in the Caucausus. The country that is proximate to both Lebanon and Georgia is Turkey, which itself is in a state of flux.
Opposition parties inside Georgia are planning mass protests for April 9, mainly in the capital city of Tbilisi but also across the country. The protests are against President Mikhail Saakashvili and are expected to demand his resignation. This is not the first set of rallies against Saakashvili, who has had a rocky presidency since taking power in the pro-Western “Rose Revolution” of 2003. Anti-government protests have been held constantly over the past six years. But the upcoming rally is different: This is the first time all 17 opposition parties have consolidated enough to organize a mass movement in the country. Furthermore, many members of the government are joining the cause, and foreign powers — namely Russia — are known to be encouraging plans to oust Saakashvili.
Kirchicks’ account of the his trip to Lebanon describes the choices that country is facing.
But the greatest difference was in tone. The message of March 14th is ultimately one of sovereignty, secularism, and forging a way past the Lebanese confessional political system that has doomed the nation to internecine warfare. Hezbollah, by contrast, is obsessed with external enemies and the cult of death. Here, in addition to the faces of its “martyrs,” the jumbotron relayed endless footage of armed men in camouflage running through forests, missiles launching, explosions, and the Israeli flag drowning under water. A giant banner on the back wall bore the words, “Oh Zionists, Oh Zionists, if you want this type of war, SO BE IT,” surrounding Arabic calligraphy bearing the same message in the form of a mushroom cloud. Participants at the March 14th celebration flew the banners of the many constituent camps that make up the diverse coalition—ranging from the cedar-encircled symbol of the Christian Lebanese Forces to the pen and hammer of the Druze Progressive Socialist Party—but the Lebanese flag was ubiquitous. At the Hezbollah rally, only the emblem of Hezbollah was displayed. …
For now, Lebanon remains on tenterhooks. “Both the majority and the opposition believe they can win,” says Nassib Lahoud, a former ambassador to the United States and a leading anti-Syrian politician, explaining why major violence has yet to break out. “That’s the best insurance policy.” Given the history of this country, few Lebanese are ready to contemplate whether such equilibrium will last past June.
The Asia Times says that the administration’s new Central Asia/Afghanistan plan is shaping up. And it much more “nuanced” than the Bush administration’s, allowing the Iranians to have enriched uranium under international controls in exchange for an undertaking not to weaponize it.
It now appears that the US might cede to Iran’s nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal reported last Friday that as part of a policy review commissioned by Obama, “diplomats are discussing whether the US will eventually have to accept Iran’s insistence on carrying out the [enrichment] process, which can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material”. The newspaper assessed that the Obama administration’s message to Tehran is increasingly shaping up as “Don’t develop a nuclear weapon” – a nuanced stance that would not rule out a deal accepting Iranian enrichment as such. It pointed out that Obama’s articulations on the subject have become much less specific than those of former president George W Bush, who never minced words in crying a halt to Iran’s enrichment.
The new thinking is that the priority should be to win greater access for UN inspectors to the Iranian nuclear establishments, as compared with the current limited inspection regime, which has led to diminishing information regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In other words, why not trust Iran to retain its enrichment activities so long as its program can be effectively verified.
In this scenario, it is significant that following talks with Ahmadinejad, Kazakhstan President Nurusultan Nazarbayev chose the venue of their joint press conference on Monday in Astana to make the public offer that his country is willing to host a global nuclear fuel bank as part of a US-backed plan to put all uranium enrichment under international control. “If such a nuclear fuel bank were to be created, Kazakhstan would be ready to consider hosting it on its territory as a signatory of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and as a country that voluntarily renounced nuclear weapons,” Nazarbayev said.
I spoke to my friends in Tbilisi today, and although it is estimated that 60,000 attended the opposition rallies, it was actually a “non-event” as far as interfering with most people’s lives… more of a nuisance.
Contrast with recent protests, where heavy-handed law enforcement and other factors contributed to violence, death and injury… or twenty years ago, when Soviet troops killed 20 (including 17 women) in a protest at the very same place, marking April 9 as a national holiday.
It’s still early, but it appears Georgia has “grown up” in a very big way when it comes to internal politics and protests.
It would seem Georgia is “growing up,” and I, for one am very proud of that country. I’ll definitely be staying in touch with my friends, for whom I am very concerned, but my gut tells me the next Soviet meddling will be in the Ukraine, not Georgia.
Putin has shifted to using his wallet…
Direct action is now known to be too expensive.
The ‘opposition’ in Georgia gambit is sure to be a test run for Ukraine.
H and C don’t have enough wit to counter-bid Putin’s puppets.
It’s K-stan all over again.
It’s a Putin spring. Yalta see him smiling.
“Mark my words….” What did Joe know and when did he know it?
We live in interesting times.
Ah Spring, when a frisky Russian turns to thoughts of mayhem.
We get to welcome our old friends from the Kremlin back. This time they should bring beer.
We should have blown the tunnel through the Caucasus eight months ago. Let us hope that the Georgians have used this time wisely. The most interesting dot connecting would be if some Indians show up in Tbilisi.
Lifeofthemind
Ah Spring, when a frisky Russian turns to thoughts of mayhem.
We get to welcome our old friends from the Kremlin back
So true, so very, very true.
I wonder where our dear FSB-sponsored posters are…
Здравствуйте, товарищи!
It’s no fun for them to post without a budget appropriation, I guess.
Obama may or may not be tested by international crisis soon. But Joe Biden doesn’t exactly lend credibility to that notion or any other.
“Obama may or may not be tested by international crisis soon. But Joe Biden doesn’t exactly lend credibility to that notion or any other.”
You could be right, but remember, Joe ran at the mouth shortly after having his scales peeled during a Freebie Transition Period National Security Briefing.
I say we take them at their word
Though some word combos sound absurd
Somali is a word that sings
Trips off your tongue like bluebird wings
But trouble comes when e’re I hear
The word Somali placed too near
A word that sounds like government
It’s then I sniff a certain scent
That tells me something is not right
And caution forms afore I bite
The simplest thing I guess to do
Is arm the willing merchant crew
Then when the pirate grapple flies
The first man up the ladder dies
Sorry, posted #9 in wrong place, cancel button didn’t seem to work.
“Putin has shifted to using his wallet…
Direct action is now known to be too expensive.”
I thought after Putin’s last foray into physically invading a neighboring country that the rest of the world would stick it to him through the banking system, like we’ve learned how to do with the Arabs.
Not only is direct action extremely expensive, but it had to hurt that the Russian soldiers doing the invading were being universally laughed at as incompetent clowns at the same time.
” The Wall Street Journal reported last Friday that as part of a policy review commissioned by Obama, “diplomats are discussing whether the US will eventually have to accept Iran’s insistence on carrying out the [enrichment] process, which can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material”.
Its sort of like what Hans Rolfe could have said in a not too far off court room, “We succeeded beyond our wildest dreams. Why did we succeed, Your Honor? What about the rest of the world? Did it not know the intentions of ? Did it not hear the words of broadcast all over the world? Did it not read of his intentions in , published in every corner of the globe?…
…No, Your Honor. No! alone is not guilty: The whole world is as responsible for .
Wow, even with the editing key I botched it, sigh.
well let me try once again,
Its sort of like what Hans Rolfe could have said in a not too far off court room, “We succeeded beyond our wildest dreams. Why did we succeed, Your Honor? What about the rest of the world? Did it not know the intentions of (Iran)? Did it not hear the words of (Akmadinajad and Kohmani) broadcast all over the world? Did it not read of his intentions in (the NY Times), published in every corner of the globe?…
…No, Your Honor. No! (Bush) alone is not guilty: The whole world is as responsible for Akmadinahad’s Iran.