Today was a bad day to be a Pakistani cop. AFP reports a military-type strike against a police academy.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AFP) — At least 20 people were killed Monday after gunmen stormed a Pakistan police training school near the eastern city of Lahore, police officials told AFP. “The number of killed is at least 20,” police sub inspector Amjad Ahmad told AFP outside the police training ground in Manawan.
Other police officials said the number of casualties may be higher given the heavy crossfire between the attackers holed up at the training centre and paramilitary troops who fanned around the perimeter of the ground. …
Television footage showed bodies of policemen lying face down on the parade ground as heavy gunfire rattled out of the training ground at Manawan outside Pakistan’s cultural capital Lahore.
Bill Roggio describes more attacks on Pakistani police officers — this time in the tribal areas.
The Taliban captured 12 policemen after attacking a police outpost in the Khyber tribal agency in Pakistan’s northwest. The atack capped a weekend of violence in the region surrounding Peshawar, the provincial capital of the Northwest Frontier Province. … “Militants came to the Shin Qamar checkpost before dawn and disarmed our policemen and then bundled them into vehicles,” Gul said. “We’ve launched a search but there’s been no progress.” …
The Taliban are seeking to strangle NATO’s main supply route into Afghanistan as well as conquer the Peshawar region. NATO’s most vital resupply route for its forces in Afghanistan stretches from the Pakistani port city of Karachi to Peshawar, then through the Khyber Pass to Kabul. More than 70 percent of NATO supplies and 40 percent of its fuel moves through Peshawar.
An earlier post noted that one of the necessary consequences of using the Pakistanis to press down hard against the Taliban is that the Islamabad will come under direct pressure from them. “The Jihadi elements will now concentrate on pressuring Islamabad into withdrawing support for the campaign against it. Destabilization efforts against the Pakistani government must now be expected.” The attacks on Pakistani police are not necessarily part of a destabilization, but are at least aimed at intimidating and defanging any security forces which might dare oppose the militants. These are standard antigovernment tactics.
As the effort against the Taliban shifts to both sides of the border, and with President Obama disallowing a direct American role in Pakistan, the Pakistani forces will come under increasing attack. These attacks on cops are probably only a foretaste of what is to come.
embedded by Embedded VideoYouTube Direkt
Like I said, it’s highly probable that Pakistan will fall into the AQ/Taliban hands in a few months at most. We are looking at probably:
*Open rebellion in the Spring/Summer, with the final collapse of the regime and a new Islamist government hostile to the US and allied openly with the Taliban and AQ, threatening America with nukes if we don’t withdraw.
*Fighting, heavy at times, during the fall, as Winter approaches.
*Nuclear strikes on American held positions as our troops run out of supplies and the Taliban/AQ/Pakistani forces seek to force surrender.
*A humiliating surrender of our forces there in Afghanistan, after long and exhaustive fighting, mostly without air cover, and another Bataan Death March from which few survive.
*A President Obama, announcing that the Military has failed, seeking to disband the military and create his own forces, loyal personally to him.
*Obama’s plans “foiled” if that is the right word for it, by nuclear attacks that destroy NYC and perhaps Atlanta, prompting some sort of preservation by desperate, angry, and fearful Americans. “Emergency Impeachment” or whatever it’s called, and Lincoln-type martial law over most of the nation, followed on by various strategic nuclear strikes at enemies (all nuclear Muslim nations, or those with ambitions, and probably also North Korea).
Obama got elected as the Nation’s “Shaman” and female-oriented healer. As such he’s abjured violence, being mean to people (except icky middle class White guys) and the rest of the Oprah and View agenda, which is his own. He’s even growing organic vegetables in a garden in the White House. As such, the actual reality of the Dead Kennedy’s “California Uber Alles” is not President Brown but President Obama, who embodies all the New Age nastiness of Jerry Brown and all of the post-Christian self-loathing of nation and military common among the View and Oprah crowd.
Of course Obama expects to “win” by talking, hasn’t really big speeches got him the Presidency? Aren’t women and WASPY rich Yuppie Radicals like Bill Ayers impressed by it?
Heck, it’s tailor made for Obama — talk talk talk while his bet on Pakistan’s corrupt and inept President pays off less than Bush’s on Musharraf.
Remember, when not if the Taliban/AQ control Pakistan, it’s a two-fer. One they wipe out our forces in Afghanistan (does anyone think that Obama, who was born a Muslim, who was raised a Muslim, who has many Muslim relatives, and who has said he would side with Muslims over America if it came to that) would do whatever it takes to save our guys in Afghanistan? Please. He cant’ wait for another Alamo. He’d probably be dancing in the White House.
I don’t think Pakistan will fall just like that because of the power of the Army, who want to use the Taliban, not live under them. But having said that, the fighting may heighten the contradictions between the civilian politicians and the army, and between different parts of Pakistani society. Pakistan was never the most stable of countries. Getting it to fight the Taliban may set one group fighting against the other.
Well if you can stay riding on the tiger’s back, he can’t eat you. But staying on will be the problem. You will recall how the operation in Iraq was criticized for destabilizing the aftermath. The fragile truce and balance of power was upset and for a while, it took upwards of 17 US brigades to keep the lid on while everybody and his brother fought it out in the land between the rivers. I don’t know whether Pakistan can be compared, even in this limited way, but it seems to me that if the basic institutions of Pakistan fall over, and without anything like 17 US brigades as a buffer against anarchy, then it will be a wild ride. And who knows, maybe the tiger will get the last laugh.
If Pakistan’s basic institutions fall over, then the component tribal groupings will go their own way, and fall under the influence of whatever nearby imperial power (*cough* Persia *cough* India) can establish order.
The big McGuffin for the US: Where are the nukes?
Whiskey, a little over board, but on the right path. The perfect storm is gathering all around us and we have a Captain Ahab at the wheel, this Captain Ahab has no sailing experience! God have mercy on our men and women in the military and may God have mercy on us, rejoice the trumpets will blast and with a shout all the faithful will be swept away to the safety of our father’s house.
Did anyone see the pretty picture of “Goof-of-State” (Hillary) with the Communist symbol as a large back drop behind her on Drudge Report? She looked so happy and content, down right at home, why she even had a glow, the kind pregnant women have…Maybe she is birthing something soon? Like socialism…
I doubt if Obama has the stomach to attack, take and stabilize Pakistan. That said, it maybe in our interests to allow India to neutralize Pakistan. There probably would be nukes involved – which may lead to knowing where the usable nukes in Pakistan are located and an excuse to secure them or destroy them.
Pakistan is in chaos at this moment. They are of little or no use to us. It may be more favorable to have a Pakistan turned into rubble and the Taliban wounded by India. A lot of tactics could be used to push the Taliban over the cliff and to install new leadership in Pakistan.
The only unknown in this scenario is how the Big 0 would react. I would hope senior military officers have contingency plans in place if Pakistan explodes.
5. Ledger
“I would hope senior military officers have contingency plans in place if Pakistan explodes.”
Of course they do but they will not be allowed to carry them out.
Regarding Attack on Lahore 30/03/2009:
To all Pakistanis, please wake up and call this atrocity what it is. Please stop trying to find a foreign hand; please understand that this is our war. We are under attack from our own. These people, who in Waziristan and SWAT leave hanging from the trees the bodies of their victims, are our own callous murderers.
The frequent nature of these attacks does not make them any less reprehensible. These people who on one day blow a mosque full of worshippers in Pakhtunkhwa and the next day attack the very heart of Pakistan are our own people. Please admit our faults, please look at the events with open eyes, please call spade a spade and stop tying to hide behind the bulls**t of “Muslims can’t do this kind of thing”. Well, they can and they are.
It is no longer possible to stay silent and see that amongst our own, the people we know, there are those who come up with conspiracy theories for everything, look for American hand in everything, and look for excuses for our own failures.
I ask people like Imran Khan (I like him and want him as our next leader), to finally give up the charade of this business of being “at war with our own people”. No sir, we are not at war with our own people as these people want to make Pakistan a Stone Age country, they want our sisters, daughters and mothers to get imprisoned in their homes.
This is not Islam, Islam teach us humility, love and compassion for fellow human beings, Islam tell us to respect, women, elder and fruit trees even when at war. Let’s call these people what they are, they are our fascists who want a totalitarian version of their own perverted view of Islam to subjugate the free people of Pakistan.
Please speak up, please…
http://real-politique.blogspot.com
By Sikander Hayat
Wait I though there was a cease fire in affect… These damn OCOs can get so confusing.
Pakistan provides yet another parallel to the West’s leftist, urban insurgency. Law enforcers are the target.
Whether the law is pressed by the Marines, the American Navy, or by local cops, no matter whether the theater is East L.A., Lahore, or a French banlieue, both the Taliban and the Western Left are arrayed against the nation-states’ law enforcers.
“Free Mumia.” The rallying call to normalize terrorism and cop-killing is common to the global Left and Islamic radicals: the tactical similarities are piling up.
All that’s left for the Left to use to defend itself from the encroaching appearance of operational complicity with Middle Eastern terrorists is to stage a “Christian, Right-Wing” terror attack on a federal building or police station.
Their memetic defense rests on equating freedom-loving, gun-owning Americans who vote Republican with the Taliban. And, because this is the Left’s only tactical defense, you can rest assured they’ll deploy it very, very soon.
whiskey,
“who has said he would side with Muslims over America if it came to that”
You know, you’re as blatantly dishonest as the worst of the MSM when you repeat this canard over and over.
Yes, you’ve given us links that supposedly support that statement, but they do nothing of the kind. In them, Obama is clearly talking about random/vigilante/ethnic-cleansing style attacks on Muslims (and “Muslim-looking people”) in the US, and saying he would (of course) be in favor of our rule of law in such a situation.
Now it’s possible that he might actually want to betray us as you claim, but you have still shown nothing in actual support of it.
I’ve got to second Kirk on this one, Whiskey.
Without refuting your argument, I’d like to see better references underpinning your assertion.
Same goes for your “feminization” analysis. I think you are defining feminine down in order to make a blunt, generalized point about a global social trend. So long as you target post-modern, academic “feminism” (the crypto-Marxist type) i’ll carry your ammo for you, But, most times, and perhaps due to laziness – not necessarily due to your being wrong (word-choice, balancing conflicting data and essay-drafting are all very time-consuming), in the effort to generalize you paint with way too broad a brush.
Which means that, so long your analysis blindly groups unflappable women like my friend Alexis (a big-boned Scandi-lady who could fight off a polar bear with one hand while nursing a baby and chopping wood with the other), with urbane, campus-ed, political “feminists,” then your thesis is too easily refuted by individual test-cases.
On both issues, (and I think this applies to most blog-commenters including myself) your contentions would benefit from linking to a “representative” raft of research.
Kirk, Steveaz,
I don’t know if Obama ever said he would side the muslims, but his statements cannot be taken at face value. Obama often will put a conservative face on his policies to confuse the public as to what his real intent is. We don’t know what Obama is up to in Afghanistan or Pakistan; It is too early to tell. However, there are too many early actions of the Obama administration where he has run roughshod over our constitutional rights or America’s long term interests to be comfortable at all with his direction. Whiskey in the end may be right. We just don’t know.
Whisky,
I’m going with Kirk, et al., on this one. You are overboard with your predictions. Pakistan is in for major trouble, yes. The fall of any form of government, followed by nuke attacks on US troops? No.
I’m not sure that you can expect India to put troops into Pakistan (hasn’t happened since the 60s), as nothing would unite the locals faster, however much they may hate each other, and would make Indian troops easy targets if they were to do any kind of occupation/peacekeeping role. You can’t think of anything better designed to send the Pakistani army over the edge into full blown Islamism, whereas they’re still divided at present–fingers crossed. I think India would only provide logistical and intelligence support. Contrary to some people’s opinion I really don’t think it’s in India’s interests to reabsorb Pakistan–its parched landscapes and backward inhabitants are really not an asset. There are as many Muslims (more?) in India as there are in Pakistan, to absorb that many would destabilize India as a mostly Hindu but officially secular country. In short, we want them on their side of the border to the extent that we want them at all.
India will take whatever positions in Pakistan that gives India the edge military wise on the ground.
Pakistan will just break into many tribal areas who will change their loyalty to America as fits their need.
American troops are in danger of being put in an untenable situation.
Hey Whiskey: Now you have all of the “utopian liberals” after you. Told you I would get more reinforcements than you could handle.
Tell me, what’s it like there in Dien Bien Phu?
http://www.dienbienphu.org/english/
pretty good website. those commie pack howitzers on the mountsides above the French fortessed area were murder. French just didn’t have enough stuff to go run ‘em off and then keep ‘em off, i guess. Think Keh Sahn not on a hilltop but down in a valley. Location location location.
Buddy, the two best books on the Phu are Jules roy “Battle of Dien Bien Phu” and Bernard Fall’s “Hell In A Very Small Place”.
No pack howitzers that I know of. Viet Minh used some conventional 75 towed and a whole bunch of 105 towed. (Latter came courtesy of MacArthur getting caught with his drawers down up on the Yalu. However, God so loved His Americans that he sent His Only Begotten Ridgway to save their posteriors.)
Likewise, the Viet Minh did not hand drag those things over many miles like they claim. Main transport were Russian trucks. Hand-dragging was the last little bit. Surprise was that they dug them into the foward slope of the hills where nothing could touch them unless they rolled out and were firing.
They did similar things to all those flak guns
that made aerial resupply so hazardous and the two together shut down the airstrip.
I once knew an ARVN officer who had been in the Viet Minh G2 at that siege/battle. He assured me that Fall in particular had it right. He was quite proud of what his fellow Vietnamese had accomplished and was appaled at the type of government Uncle Ho later installed.
Dave, kirk, steveaz, (arizona brother!); I pray that Whiskey’s forecasts are false alarums. BUT: the O-guy sat there in that poison parish ‘most every Sunday for some 20 years. He was raised a red-diaper baby. The O-guy’s inmost thoughts are cloaked. I pray that he is mostly a venal politician who is most concerned with popularity and reelection, and that these concerns will lead him to fairly reasonable, even if a lot more liberal than I’d like, policies. Yet I still don’t find Whiskey’s scenarios implausible. I’d rather listen than call him out. Try that, guys, you might learn something.
Sikander Hayat #7: We shall do our best to cover you sir. Good luck and God Bless.
Sikander – You’re right; “these people” want to go back to the Stone Age. Actually, I have no particular problem with that; it’s their country and they can do what they want with it. We in the West will just carry on into the Diamond Age while they wallow in the prehistoric squalor they want.
However, attack the West and they won’t be going back into the Stone Age. They’ll be going back into the Archaean.
If they make civil authority impotent, then that empowers military governance. Many of the Punjabi majority would love to drop the hammer on the Pashtuns.