What is BHO going to do in Afghanistan?
The Times Online describes talks between the US and Iran over Afghanistan — in Moscow.
Iranian and American officials have held their first talks about ending the war in Afghanistan amid signs that President Barack Obama’s efforts to thaw relations with Tehran are paying off. While television cameras focused on Obama in Washington during the unveiling of his strategy for Afghanistan last Friday, US and Iranian diplomats were holding a remarkable meeting in Moscow. The Russian initiative brought together Patrick Moon, the US diplomat in charge of south and central Asia, and Mehdi Akhundzadeh, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, as well as a British diplomat who has been acting as a mediator.
“We’ve turned a page to have Iranians and Americans at the same table all discussing Afghanistan,” Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, told delegates. …
Friday’s meeting was held under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a six-member regional security group including Russia, China and central Asian states, to discuss combating terrorism and drug trafficking in Afghanistan. Those present included Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general, the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and senior British diplomats.
Meanwhile, the policy differences between the US and Hamid Karzai seem to have been resolved in a manner that Karzai likes. The Washington Post reports:
After months of tension between the Afghan leader and officials in Washington, especially over civilian casualties caused by Western military forces, Karzai seemed pleasantly surprised by Obama’s prescriptions for Afghanistan’s problems, calling his plan “better than we were expecting.”
Like a cross-section of Afghans interviewed Saturday, Karzai said he was especially glad that Obama explicitly endorsed two ideas Afghan officials have been stressing for several years: that the fight against Islamist terrorism must focus on militant safe havens in next-door Pakistan and that negotiations with Taliban insurgents are essential to ending the conflict in Afghanistan. …
Obama’s strategy calls for a major expansion of Afghan security forces and the deployment of 4,000 new U.S. troops to train them, on top of an additional 17,000 combat troops. It also proposes a boost in U.S. civilian expert assistance, more economic aid to Pakistan in return for stronger action against Islamist militant groups, and support for a better-run, more honest and responsive Afghan government as part of an overarching focus on fighting terrorism in the region.
What do these two developments suggest? My guess is that Iran, which has historically had great influence in Afghanistan and whose road network supplies the Afghan economy with consumer goods has been mollified in some way. The Iranians are likely to want concessions for any agreements they may enter into with the United States. There may be linkage with Hamas and Hezbollah and with Iranian nuclear weapons. But we don’t know what just yet. Exactly what price the US will pay for cooperation with the Iranian remains to be seen. With respect to shutting down the Taliban in the Pashtun areas within Pakistan, the question is whether “assistance” can achieve this, or whether the assistance will be used Pakistan for purposes other than intended. Taken together, the two stories suggest that the the Obama administration has decided to enlist regional actors and the Afghan government to split up and perhaps neutralize the Pashtun structure but that the price paid to Iran will be high and that the means that are to be employed of unproven effectiveness. The good news is that Obama may have found a key; the bad news is that the key may be to an empty room.
Open thread.
“The Russian initiative brought together Patrick Moon, the US diplomat in charge of south and central Asia, and Mehdi Akhundzadeh, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, as well as a British diplomat who has been acting as a mediator.”… Were there any Iraqis there to discuss the future of Iraq?
Have you ever watched a movie where a bunch of young teenagers drive up to dilapidated old house in the woods and as they get out and start into the house, lightning flashes, thunder rolls, and rain starts falling. Everyone in the theater is hollering at the top of their lungs, “Get back in the car, you idiots and keep driving.” But no, they go into the house and split up, each to a separate room AND we all know what happens then.
I get the same feeling when reading the above. I want to shout at the top of my lungs at the idiots in our government who are setting this whole disaster up.
Nope, David, this meeting was to cover BHO’s ass, not to accomplish anything more substantial.
Our security is being sold…cheap. BHO needs a fig leaf in foreign affairs while he destroys our country.
And what will we do to stop him?
Just asking…..
I reject the premise that talking with the Persian or Islams will result in any lasting rapprochement worth the effort.
Their taqfir methodology along with other tenets of the Quran make it impossible. I don’t know how many times one needs to point out that they intend one thing. Worldwide domination of Islam, by death or servitude, or a state of constant war to accomplish this end.
The talking is what the Russians refer to as fuffle. Examples come from many realms.
A fuffle is an artful fake, an artifact specifically made to fool, beguile, seduce, or intimidate people into something. Ideally, the initial transaction serves as the basis of a permanent arrangement, with the victim roped into an plan, which is in their favor. An even better fuffle is one that grows over time. Since a fuffle is, in essence, a fake, its useful properties, should it have any, are largely irrelevant, and so its abstract properties come forth as being the essential ones. The most important such property is, quite obviously, size, and indeed fuffles tend to get bigger and bigger over time, such as the Iranian nuclear program. This is a telltale feature of fuffles that makes them easier to identify: if something gets bigger and bigger over time while delivering the same or lesser value, then it is quite likely to be a fuffle. Also, fuffles breed: as a fuffle gets larger and larger, it produces offspring of other fuffles,(nukes to terrorists) which also grow.
The Iranians have been at war with us for 30 years.
444 days. Beirut. Khobar Towers. EFP’s.
They’re still at war with us. If they let us use their port of Chabahar and their road to Zaranj, it’s because they want to screw us. The Italians in RC West are already making their own deals with them.
Once they have our scrotum in the vice they will squeeze.
I do not trust our C-in-C and SECSTATE.
I have done a fair amount of cheer leading for OEF in the past. I still support the troops, and some of this new strategy, but I will no longer stifle myself in the interest of solidarity.
Negotiating with the “Taliban” is something that only those who really know who they are and who speaks for them can do. And the weaker party doesn’t negotiate, it concedes.
BHO wants to abandon Afghanistan. The Iranian leadership is convinced that Obama in his heart nurses a deep antipathy towards his own nation. They view this development as a great opportunity to to weaken American influence in the region.
My guess is that if BHO can convince the Iranians to forego their “bragging rights”, at least publicly for while, about portraying our departure as a defeat for the “Great Satan”, BHO will give Iran everything it wants.
But can the Iranians convince the Sunni radicals to sit and be quiet until after America has abandon Afghanistan?
This development can not be good. Anti-Americanism is a pillar of the Iranian revolution and without it the regime has no legitimacy.
Iran suspects great weakness in the America.
Petraeus did such a bang-up job pacifying Iraq there’s nowhere else in the world that Obama can destroy the US military other than by sending them into a no-win scenario in Afghanistan with a supply chain so long and tenuous the least brigand of the hills could cut it off.
Brilliant! Go to the folks that got their butts handed to them by the outgunned locals, who btw have a vested interest in seeing us slowly swirling down the drain, and ask them for advice. That’s gotta work!
maybe there was a good raison that the Iranians finally accepted to meet US diplomats :
http :// sudantribune.com/spip.php?article30639
http :// http://www.iran-resist.org/article5260.html
if theses operations are verifiable somwhere, but not “really” on papers, it would mean that they were tests for a future attack on Arak, and on iranian missiles
Like it is said on Iran-resist, the israeli planes flight 2400 km (to the objectives and back home), the lenght from Israel to Arak is 1000 km, so they say , that it was a warning to Iran, that if she doesn’t comply, israeli planes can nuke their nuclear site
http :// http://www.iran-resist.org/article5251.html
uh, Jundallah (pachtoun militia paid by CIA, anounced the capture of Zarif Sheybani, a mullah agent…)
and
http :// http://www.moonofalabama.org/2009/03/israels-sudan-bombing-report-is-likely-nonsense.html#more
some say that it’s ment to manipulate opinions in Iran, er ummm, ya know that the Clinton /Brzezinski are after the Mullahs, in the back-yards though, uh oh, one wonders why Obama is seen so appeasing in front of the curtain, hey, he is playing the buffoon
One unifying factor in this diverse coalition — the USA, Russia, the Karzai Government, and Iran — is hostility toward the coalition of Pashtun radicals, Arab radicals and ex-USSR Moslem radicals (Chechens, Uzbeks, etc.) that has established itself along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
The Arab Sunni radical movement has been weakened significantly since September 11, 2001. No Arab state supports this movement, which has fractured and faltered.
Shiite Iran, not Sunni Al Qaeda, now leads the radical movement in the Moslem world. Therefore terror against Shiites in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan no longer will be tolerated. Iran is willing to enable the USA to use its marvelous weapons to kill anti-Shiite terrorists for a while, as long as the USA eventually leaves the theater.
Russia too wants the USA to leave that theater but likewise will be willing to allow the USA to kill Chechen and Uzbek radical Moslem leaders in that theater for a while.
Everyone knows the Obama Administration does not want to stay in that theater. If Obama can crush Al Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area and then withdraw US forces, then many governments will feel that an ideal resolution has been achieved.
“In a related story, President Obama today announced that he has developed a ‘foolproof’ method at winning Three-Card Monte. ‘I can’t tell you what it is,’ said a beaming Obama, ‘so, hey, you’ll just have to trust me. However, I can tell you my method really really works. In fact, I’m willing to bet the future of this country on it!’”
Gee whillikers, folks! Is there ANYTHING Obama can’t do?
/snark
What the USA wants from Russia and Iran is arranagements that will allow supplies to flow to the Afghanistan government as necessary through routes other than through Pakistan.
US forces themselves do not have to play visible roles in those supply routes. Rather, arrangements can be made for Russia and Iran to transport and provide fuel, vehicles, food, clothing, weapons, ammunition, etc. directly to the Afghanistan government.
Anyone who trusts the Mullahs in Tehran is a fool. Anyone who trusts the Russians is an imbecile.
I’ve got a bad feeling about this.
We will also have to provide support for other Afghan security forces such as the Afghan Public Protection Force.
I support that.
davidt,
Were there any Iraqis there to discuss the future of Iraq?
Edvard Benes was unavailable for comment.
I wonder what the Russians are getting. I suspect they are getting something like a free hand in the “near abroad”, for starters.
I like how this is put: “Iranian and American officials have held their first talks about ending the war in Afghanistan…” So the Iranians are on the other side? I think it is more a timetable for a US withdrawal, which is not the same thing. I’ve thought for a while that the local players might trade a few high level scalps for a US withdrawal (mission accomplished!).
Maybe we will leave Afghanistan about the same time we leave Iraq. Whose sphere of influence will extend where once we’re gone? Who will Iraq cozy up with, I wonder.
Two comments about this:
Remember that Arabs, (Iraqis, Syrians, Jordanians, Libyans, Egyptians, Moroccans,
Algerians, Saudis, others) have no great love for Persians——Iran.
Victory in Iraq has made all of Arabia feel more cordial towards us. Iran would certainly like to make all of Arabia feel like the Great Satan—-that is us folks—-
is now betraying Arabs. Hence they may well feel amenable to some high-profile deal.
Second thing is that Iran is rushing towards bankruptcy. A course escalated by the decline in oil prices. They are in a race to build that nuclear arsenal before their lights go out. Don’t you think they are open to being bribed, not to mention given the chance to purloin a bit of what is being transhipped?
And would Russia like to be in on the bribery and purloining? Does the ursurus horriblis move his bowels within the confines of the timbered regions.
Like Fred, I have a shrinking feeling on this one. In this area, I do not read Obama as wishing us harm. But he does think that he is so damned smart that he can make Afghanistan/Pakistan go away at no cost to himself. Those others can clean his clock without working up a sweat.
So Michelle is right to worry about the troops. What he is putting them into and the danger to their logistics are both magnified
by what his budget proposes.
Don’t think “Vietnam”. Think “Bataan”.
I know that many others have asked, both publicly and privately, but I can’t seem to stop myself!
Is anyone really this stupid, or is this an intentional betrayal of the U.S. and western culture?
Wretchard wrote:
Exactly what price the US will pay for cooperation with the Iranian remains to be seen. With respect to shutting down the Taliban in the Pashtun areas within Pakistan, the question is whether “assistance” can achieve this, or whether the assistance will be used Pakistan for purposes other than intended.
Which pretty much dovetails with what I was thinking. As near as I can make out, the success of this plan hinges on the rather improbably premise that Pakistan is serious about subduing its wild hinterlands. That would be extremely difficult, prohibitively expensive, and would require a massive shale-up of entrenched interests within the Pakistani bureaucracy. More likely, they will pocket the money, make a few token attacks on outlaw villages (which will mollify press/public opinion), then lament the difficulty of the task while hitting up Uncle Sam for more money and more time. Iran, meanwhile, will gladly allow U.S. convoys transit through their territory so the mullahs can prop up their crumbling regime off the rake, al the while poking the fires of tribal militancy in Afghanistan. The payoff to rogue states never works to mitigate the violence: just look at North Korea’s intended missile launch to see wither all this is tending.
Russia, on the other hand, does not mind the U.S. presence in Afghanistan as much as we imagine. It’s better for them to keep their enemy close by, where they can keep an eye on him. They will use their nascent ability to make our lives miserable in Afghanistan as a tacit bargaining chip against Missile Defense. Ironically, the presents of Americans in Afghanistan, especially under the Obama administration, will allow the Russians a large measure of indirect control over the Caucasus: “That’s a nice pipeline you have there. It’d be a real shame if something happened to it, no?”
Obama, for his part, half-understands the Faustian bargains he’s making, but is willing to permit himself to be misled. “Kicking the can” is the name of the game here. The current situation is unstable; he’s just hoping it doesn’t implode on his watch.
When O says to the mullahs if you help me in the Stans
I will look the other way and let you formulate your plans
To rid the world and people of a certain you know who
Just be sure you don’t inform me so I won’t know what you do
The mullahs smile and say sure Jack just tell us what you want
And O winks back and says he just needs something he can flaunt
To show the public back at home he’s really on the ball
I’ve got to give them something big that’s why I make this call
The guys I’ve got, the money men, he said with great disdain
Are causing polling numbers to go circling round the drain
So what I need is access to the Afghan seat of war
I need your ports, I need your roads, I need your help much more
Than I could state in simple terms because it’s so complex
And if you give me what I need I think we’ll clear the decks
For you to gain complete control of what you say is yours
And in the process make Israelis grovel on all fours
To grovel them is not our goal the mullahs winked and laughed
No doubt you think us crazy and no doubt you think us daft
But total ’nihilation is what this is all about
We don’t want them to holler and we don’t want them to shout
We want the sons of pigs and dogs in silent heaps to lay
So that is what we want and are you now prepared to pay
Done and done said O as he prepared to board his plane
I don’t know what you’re gonna do but if my numbers gain
You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours and when I leave the room
I’ll know you’ve kept your bargain when I’ve heard that great big boom
Excellent, Walt. Excellent.
The USA, Russia and Iran can agree that Afghanistan should continue to exist as a unified state with its current borders and should not provide a safe haven to Al Qaeda.
The USA will be happy if Russia and Iran develop diplomatic relations and economic trade with Afghanistan. Such ordinary support from those two countries can help the Afghanistan government to survive and thrive and to maintain its independence from Pakistan.
The alternative to the Afghanistan government is a radical, anti-Shiite regime headed by Al Qaeda and the Pashtun Taliban radicals. That alternative is decidedly opposed by Russia and Iran.
When the Afghanistan government is able to stand by itself — with support from Russia and Iran — then the USA will withdraw its military forces.
If the USA can destroy Al Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region during the next couple years and then withdraw its military forces, then that resolution will suffice for many governments.
Al Qaeda is vulnerable. What happened to Al Qaeda in Iraq can happen again in Pakistan.
Rank speculation: we promised not to attack their nuclear facilities.
They can agree to anything for the time it takes to get the nukes, then tell us to go f*ck ourselves.
That’s what I would do if I was them.
Our security is being sold…cheap
No. Its being given away “for the promise of future negotiations” [Manchester, Last Lion Vol2].
Edvard Benes was unavailable for comment.
Spot on. Nicely done!
Iran suspects great weakness in the America.
Iran recognizes the same pattern seen in the American Left re Israel: naive faith in the righteouness of proportional responses. Our military is about to be tied down in Afganistan with an unrealistic ROE. Leaving Iran free to work its mischief.
Why would the Israelis of any stripe from Kadima and Labor to the right let themselves be sold to Iran to buy BHO time to play in the sand? I expect Bibi and Barak to kick Barack’s fantasy over, hopefully before 75,000 Americans get trapped.
Anybody notice Condi’s respectful line on the new admin – and her implicit rebuke of Dick C.? Just asking… – how easy is if for ya’ll to dismiss her affirmation that O’s crew are “quality people” and patriots who might just have a clue…And what about Gates on Obama’s head vs. Bush’s? Was he just sucking up? So you got Condi and Gates saying O and co. aren’t fools. But so many of you are SURE they’re either idiots or traitors. Hmmm…Time for second thoughts?
Benj,
Condoleezza Rice (along with much of George Bush’s administration and works) is hardly the standard upon which thoughtful conservatives rest their case.
Don’t be fooled by the venue. The Mullahs once let Carter’s sec of state Warren Christopher sit on the tarmac for six hours under a blazing sun before they let him deplane to do a little begging for the hostages. What they’re doing now is trading Lebanon for Mexico, and if that goes well, then Israel for New Mexico, Arizona, and So Cal up to Russian Hill in Frisco. Frisco goes to Russia, ‘for the house’, along with Alaska if they promise to take Palin too.
how easy is if for ya’ll to dismiss her affirmation that O’s crew are “quality people” and patriots who might just have a clue
Yes, its easy. One need simply review the track record of these “quality people” over the last 60 days.
Although its telling that you must appeal to authority to make your point. Is it possible for you to reach a decision based on your own judgement, or do you always need to check around to see what the “cool kids” are saying instead? Hey, you’re not on JournaList too?
Given his background, I don’t suppose that ObamOpra has ever heard the stories of Brier Fox and Brier Rabbit, specifically the Tarbaby and the Brier Patch? No, no way. Even if he had access to those stories they would have been considered to be racist.
As near as I can tell, we are about to shake hands with the Tarbaby in the middle of someone else’s Brier Patch.