The NYT reports that “President Obama sent a secret letter to Russia’s president last month suggesting that he would back off deploying a new missile defense system in Eastern Europe if Moscow would help stop Iran from developing long-range weapons.” A senior administration official described the contents of the letter somewhat cryptically, implying that the deal was all or nothing: that if the US undertook to suspend missile defense in Eastern Europe then the Russians would have to make the Iranian threat “go away”.
“It’s almost saying to them, put up or shut up,” said a senior administration official. “It’s not that the Russians get to say, ‘We’ll try and therefore you have to suspend.’ It says the threat has to go away.”
Moscow has not responded, but a Russian official said Monday that Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov would have something to say on missile defense to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton when they meet Friday in Geneva. Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev will then meet for the first time on April 2 in London, officials said Monday.
But the NYT article muddies the waters a few paragraphs down, suggesting that Obama’s fallback position was to install a missile defense system inside Russia in order to assure the Kremlin that it could never intercept Moscow’s own missiles.
The plan to build a high-tech radar facility in the Czech Republic and deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland — a part of the world that Russia once considered its sphere of influence — was a top priority for President George W. Bush to deter Iran in case it developed a nuclear warhead to fit atop its long-range missiles. Mr. Bush never accepted a Moscow proposal to install part of the missile defense system on its territory and jointly operate it so it could not be used against Russia.
Now the Obama administration appears to be reconsidering that idea, although it is not clear if it would want to put part of the system on Russian soil where it could be flipped on or off by Russians. Mr. Obama has been lukewarm on missile defense, saying he supports it only if it can be proved technically effective and affordable.
The NYT article raises a number of interesting issues. Before all else it is a tacit admission that missile defense is effective enough — despite all the pooh-poohing it has received — to be considered a bargaining chip. Otherwise BHO would not be offering to sacrifice it. But to return to the proposals, the first question is why the Obama administration should think that the Russians could make the Iranian threat “go away” unless it also believed that Moscow was Iran’s puppet-master. That would suggest Iran was really a proxy of Moscow in a new Cold War. How plausible this view is, given the historical rivalry between the Persians and the Russians and their competition in the natural gas sphere is open to question. It is far more likely that Teheran and Moscow agree to cooperate from time to time when they want to discomfit the United States.
The proposal is obviously driven by the idea that Russia can be “peeled away” from Teheran by buying it off with concessions. During my recent trip to Lebanon, it was often bruited about that Obama would try to “peel off” Syria from Iran by offering it some unspecified goody. This endeavor is now apparently in high gear. The Times Online reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is offering Syria the Hand of Friendship. But you can bet the Syrians will want more than Hillary’s Hand of Friendship. They will want Lebanon, or the Golan, or the Shaba Farms or all of the above, plus money. In the end Syria may double deal and go by to Teheran. The words “I lied” have been uttered before.
The second issue arising from a missle defense for Russian technological assistance swap is whether such an arrangement could ever be a fair. After all, it is easy to verify a non-deployment of US missiles in Eastern Europe, but how do you verify non-assistance by Russia when it could take the form of technology or knowledge transfer, which can’t easily be measured? In other words, assuming the Obama administration could make a deal with Moscow to stop helping Teheran in exchange for stopping missile defense in Eastern Europe, how could they make sure the Russians wouldn’t cheat? It is far easier to restart technological help than it is is to pour concrete. There would be an asymmetry in the stability of concessions. That is, unless it was understood the Russians would pretend to comply and the US would pretend not to notice.
A second set of issues emerges if the Obama administration plans to deploy an advanced ABM radar in Russia, as the NYT describes. Quite apart from letting the Russians know how it works, it doesn’t protect the US or Western Europe from an Iranian attack made by arrangement with Moscow. It would give Russia long-term leverage over the security of the West against rogue nuclear weapons. It would hand them a chip they could use to negotiate against the US down the track. It is a little bit like supplying the noose you may be hung in. And if Moscow never arranges to collude with Teheran, it will have a de facto veto over the facility’s use, just as host countries have wherever American installations exist. Whether or not the US gives Russia the right to flip the switch on the facility, the fact of its location within Russia means the Kremlin will effectively have the power to shut it down. They could, for instance, simply put an artillery round on the radome, in the extreme.
The perhaps the most curious issue is the existence of the story itself. This leak means that someone in the administration was either (1) floating a trial balloon or (2) horrified that this was going forward. Either way it is something to watch.
Tip Jar
Why–after this–should our best allies in Europe (the former Soviet Bloc countries now in NATO) ever trust us again? This is betrayal, pure and simple. It is on the order of Chamberlain’s betrayal of Czechoslovakia: ” a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.”
We’ve had realist foreign policy, idealist foreign policy, now we see a delusional foreign policy.
Trying to channel FDR at Yalta now?
This administration is going for a record admixture of the worst actions of every Democratic President since 1912.
“the first question is why the Obama administration should think that the Russians could make the Iranian threat “go away” unless it also believed that Moscow was Iran’s puppet-master…It is far more likely that Teheran and Moscow agree to cooperate from time to time when they want to discomfit the United States.”
Mutual shared interest. It is in Russia’s interest to ‘assist’ Iran in gaining nuclear capability. Destabilizing the M.E. is in Russia’s interest, as the present status quo does not benefit Russia. The Obama admin. evidently believes that Russia’s help is critical to Iran.
In Iran’s case, any enemy of my enemy is my friend. Especially a ‘friend’ willing to help Iran gain nukes.
Not a permanent alliance, just aligned mutual interests at this time. China is using the same covert strategy against us. Both China and Russia effectively block any serious UN sanctions against Iran and any other rogue nations.
They are part of the ‘enabling’ nations who out of short or long term geopolitical interests favor the continuance of the status quo regarding Islamic terrorism against the US.
Terrorism cannot be permanently defeated… as long as the enabling nations continue to block any effective actions against the rogue nations, who provide the direct logistical support necessary to the existence of terrorist groups.
Suppose the story is true?
What then?
Answer: Czech and Poland nuke up, FAST. Followed by everyone else. Followed by likely, a first strike on Iran by a scared and rapidly upgrading nuke Israel, or a first strike on Israel by Iran.
Also, see my point. Obama spent a lifetime hating and denigrating the nation. Now he leads it. He cannot, and his people cannot, take the defense of the nation seriously. Habits of a lifetime are not overcome.
Dr. T:
Are you Czech? Disclaimer: I’m not.
Delusional foreign policy? My favorite delusion of the past few minutes may be the one where Eastern Europe embodies our best European allies.
When caught between competing delusions, I begin to think the “trust” you lament losing is not really the Steven Pressfield kind. Rather, the “interaction” between US and Eastern Europe may embody willingness to receive DC designs, and expensive designs at that. And given the recent history of other DC designs, I’d say everything is on the table, including my obligations to the Czech Republic, let alone all of Eastern Europe.
Here we go, Left does not want America to have advantages of any kind, what better then to give it to those that lied, cheated and killed our allies while allowing them to further lie, cheat and prepare to kill our allies, all the time with a big grin and a show pony of soft power at work, peace without war, what does “0″ care, he’ll be whisked to safety, on vacation (away from a hot zone) or even probably out of office when it all crumbles… Our hope is that reality steps in and the narcissistic homicidal maniacs in the cult of death tip their hand before it really gets too far down the road that the “can” can’t be kicked again (“0” won’t do anything so you have to hope it gets kicked down the road to the next “POTUS”).
Its time folks to write, call and yell out loud on the street corner and from the roof tops “Impeach “O”, Pelosi and Reid”, “Impeach “O”, Pelosi and Reid”, “Impeach “0″, Pelosi and Reid”….
Look, just give Putin an office in the West Wing and forget about all that forieng polisy stuff. We need to fucos on our dumestic priarteries such as how to carp gut this place from the inside not the outside.
anyway those SS-21s in the South Ossetian heights haven’t laid a finger on Tbilisi yet so what’s the big deal about the Golan?
an asymmetry in the stability of concessions
Wretchard, that is a wonderful phrase.
Let me guess POTUS’ crack admin. will define “long-range” as the distance past Israel…
BHO an team are being played by the Russians, and falling for it, thinking they are running the show. Typical Kremlin behavior, dating back more than half a century – help create a problem, then offer to be a part of the solution.
This is not the first time the missile defense has been offered as a bargaining chip. From four weeks ago:
President Obama seeks Russia deal to slash nuclear weapons
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5654836.ece
President Obama will convene the most ambitious arms reduction talks with Russia for a generation, aiming to slash each country’s stockpile of nuclear weapons by 80 per cent.
The radical treaty would cut the number of nuclear warheads to 1,000 each, The Times has learnt. Key to the initiative is a review of the Bush Administration’s plan for a US missile defence shield in Eastern Europe, a project fiercely opposed by Moscow.
It sounds as if Obama has bought in to the Schroeder/Steinmeier worldview with perhaps a bit of Chirac’s “Why don’t you keep quiet” advice to Eastern Europe.
w,
a couple of typos. Strike “the” from start of the first sentence of the last paragraph. On the first sentence of the third-ot-last paragraph, I think you want to add a word on the end? Maybe deal or trade?
As usual better analysys than anyone paid to be on network TV on sundays here in the US.
One of the fun things about leaking government secrets to the press in order to sabotage the President’s diplomatic efforts is that it is a game that both political parties can play. For the past eight years, Democrats in the Bush Administration have had their turn in the game. Now it is the turn of Republicans in the Obama Administration.
Even though it is the Republicans’ turn, many Democrats in the Administration will join the fun and add to the chaos. After all, Obama himself promised us all a transparent administration, and so his administration should be transparent. If he has any diplomatic plans or proposals, then we all should know about them immediately and should be able to participate in a public discussion about them.
Again, who sent him?
w, thanks again for the thoughtful analysis.
and coincidently from the LA Times:
Reporting from Sharm El Sheik, Egypt — The Obama administration has already concluded that a diplomatic overture to Iran, one of the central promises of the president’s election campaign, is unlikely to persuade Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates in a private meeting Monday that it is “very doubtful” a U.S. approach will persuade Iran to relent, said a senior State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under customary diplomatic rules.
But but but, I thought if we only talked to Iran….
It’s my turn, it’s my turn, wah wah wah…
Russia hosts HAMAS and acts as their lawyer before the Security Counsel and “the international community.” Abu Mazan is a graduate of the KGB’s Patrice Lamumba Friendship University, the Harvard of training third-world terrorists. Russia re-ups its Tarsus naval facility in Syria. Russia helps tilt Turkey toward Iran/Syria and away from Israel and the USA. Russia gives 10 MiGs to Hezbollah-co-opted Lebanon. Russia sells more combat fighters to Yemen. Russia flies long-range bombers to Cuba, routinely harasses Canadian and CONUS airspace, and buzzes US carrier battle groups. Russia pulls the fragile legal pinions out from under Central Asian logistics for NATO/USA in Afghanistan. Russia invades Georgia. Russia freezes Eastern and Southern Europe. Russia co-opts and paralyzes the Ukrainian parliament. Russia creates mutual air defense among the ‘stans and is the major weapons arm of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia is a country run by the KGB and its alter ego, the Russian Mafiya. Russia backs Chavez, sells them 100,000 AK-47s and other guerrilla arms, which it uses to fund FARC and FARC surrogates throughout northern South America. Russia is the second-largest exporter of oil and the largest exporter of natural gas. Russia sponsors North Korea.
Also, Russia builds a nuclear reactor in Iran, tens of thousands of centiruges, and guarantees it fuel for “at least 10 years.”
I don’t know. It certainly could be that Iran does not believe that it is the co-optee of the Kremlin, but I doubt the Kremlin sees it that way. From what I remember, Iran has always been the loser in the game of deception with the Russians. Either way, the technical nature of the relationship is immaterial if Iran can be directed to act as a great catapault against US interests/NATO/Israel in the region. This letter was probably leaked by an opponent of the strategy. It is absolute folly to think that Russia will ever agree to any terms of this kind. Their opposition to 10 interceptors in Eastern Europe is and has always been entirely disingenuous. They will extort concessions from Obama, who will keep the bargain, and then flagrantly break their bargain, in a way that our government will see but our media will not. They will also create a hostage situation in Afghanistan, and then extort more from Obama to rescue him from it. They are trying to push the US out of Europe; NATO has already been exposed as a fraud. You should not be sanguine at all about Russia. Not at all.
This pretty much sums up what i think:
http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/03/03/obamas_defense_budget_sacrifices_us_primacy
…and I wonder what that Raul Castro purge of the Fidel Castro loyalists yesterday was all about? After all, Raul was head of Cuban intelligence for its entire existence, don’t suppose HE has much relationship with the current KGB leadership in the Kremlin…. Naahhhh…
The western Europeans don’t want the interceptor system – they prefer to rely on soft power. The new Europeans seem to want it, but one has the suspicion they really just want help in protection against the russians. That is, the patriot batteries and an important U.S. tripwire installation to forestall Russian backsliding toward Soviet designs.
So, we are pushing to install an expensive antimissle system to protect Europe against IRAN. They don’t want it. So why are we so hell bent on doing it? I think it was always a bargaining chip to be withdrawn for potential gain elsewhere, but the Russians have seen through this.
add to mongoose list the lockdown on internal dissent, including about 50 anti-Putin journalists murdered or beat up or disappeared over the last several years (including one killed by radioactive weapon in downtown London –the perp made now a member of the Duma and thus legally beyond the weak-anyway international law jurisdictional provisions), and fairly recent growth of unprecedentedly virulant anti-Americanism in the media –including much accusation of subversion and war-mongering.
” This leak means that someone in the administration was either (1) floating a trial balloon or (2) horrified that this was going forward. Either way it is something to watch.”
Possibly.
Or, 3) Someone screwed up, and the NYT is always eager to pounce on an accidentally disclosed secret.
or 4) This is someone’s imagination. Perhaps they’ve figured out that juicy undeniable secrets sell papers; whether the story is accurate or not is irrelevant.
Other possibilities surely exist as well.
Ben: Or 5) Someone at State or Langley was trying to sandbag the administration, maybe just to let them know who is really in charge.
Pie Crusts
When I was in DC and observed the many, varied, inventive, open, concealed, loud, quiet, official, and covert efforts underway to stop SDI I reached the following conclusion:
Washington DC was in great danger of having a shortage of lightpoles – a shortage of lightpoles on which to hang those responsible if we got hit by a missile.
As a first step I recommend we start putting the names of those people so designated on the lightpoles.
In an old episode of “Cheers”, Frasier encounters Diane in Boston after she had left him at the altar in Italy. Dialogue not exact but close.
Frasier- “You humiliated me with the entire Italian national soccer team. Now, when a player tries to kick the ball but misses and falls down, it’s called a Frasier.”
Diane- “That’s just a coincidence.”
Frasier- “Coincidence!? If he’s knocked out cold, it’s called a Frasier Crane!”
I find myself snickering a lot these days. POTUS should not remind one of characters being humiliated in pop culture, but if the shoe fits…
There are three possibilities (always).
1) The Administration knows what it is doing and this will prove to be a brilliant beginning of a realignment in which Iran is defanged, the Europeans and the Russians focus on cooperative development and the Chinese meekly accept their role as labor to underwrite the development of the planet. Please stop laughing as it is necessary to list the option. Given that in the 15 weeks since the election Obama and company have proven to be to incompetent to hit the floor with a fork we can safely discount this answer.
2) This represents the random musings that substitute for professional policy by a bunch of 3rd graders who are in so deep over their head that they have no clue about what to do. We could be entertained by the coming food fights if it were not for the fact that millions of people might be killed and everything civilized that humanity spent 3,000 years building could be destroyed. While the risks are great it is always possible that the God who watches over fools, drunks and the United States will once again bring our ship safe into harbor as the world round us explodes.
3) The third option is that Obama is consciously seeking to destroy Western Civilization and is acting at the behest of domestic traitors and foreign interests.
We must pray that door number 2 is the correct choice.
There is no way a rational person can argue that Putin does not mean great harm to America. Ergo, if O so easily and willingly capitulates to Putin, the same must be said for Obama. The O is our worst fears realized.
I was beginning to think the rapture for Obama would not collapse until after our first terrorist attack. Now I think differently. Yesterday at Mass, the Priest passed out pre printed and pre addressed post cards against the mandatory physician/ hospital abortion on demand “Freedom of Choice Act”, for our Congressman and Senators, and delivered a very straight forward, no holds barred and stern warning on the bill. And my parish is in the archdiocese of his eminence the far left wing pedophile protecting Cardinal Roger Baloney, er I mean Mahoney.
I beginning to think the Pope will carry out the Bishop’s threat and order Catholic hospitals closed after the “Freedom of Choice Act passes. Closing one third of the nation’s hospitals would initiate the first fully Obama inspired and instigated economic and health care crisis. A few sheeple minds may see our Messiah in a new light after that.
“So, we are pushing to install an expensive antimissle system to protect Europe against IRAN” WTF, they never ment against Iran !!!
umm if our eastern european “compatriots” (?) want the missiles, they can have them , es ist mir Scheiss egal, BUT, I don’t them to whinn in my western european ears for bailing their gadgets
I don’t want them, sorry typo
Rather than post on the old thread I will try to tie the two themes together. Why is there so much tolerance for incompetent fantasists that Option two people can take charge or provide a cover for Option three to expose us to an enemy? The answer is in the empowerment of the “Giant Leeches” described in the last thread.
Safeguarding the Republic from these people would take a few simple steps. The 17th Amendment should be repealed. Constitutional safeguards to ensure that the eligibility and record of candidates for the Presidency, or Vice-Presidency, are verified and certified. The Electoral College should be established on a more regular basis with members elected by the state legislatures for extended terms at least 6 months before a Presidential Election, and some such as the State’s heads of the executive, legislative and judicial branches, holding the office of Elector ex officio. The franchise to vote should be withdrawn from persons convicted of a felony or adjudged incompetent in a formal hearing or who derives the majority of their sustenance from the government. By that last I would mean that employees of the Federal government should not be given the vote for US Representatives or State Assemblymen and State employees should not vote at the State level. My only exception for this would be for all enlisted members of the Armed Forces and in addition for officers called to active duty for up to 3 years or during a declared war.
This would lead to the rapid defunding of most of the jobs that support the Giant Leech class. Perhaps a couple of million functionally unemployable people would have to dealt with. My suggestion is that they be used as agricultural labor, placed on power generating treadmills and health club bicycles or be offered subsidized egress to less demanding places. Obviously my expectation is that the vast majority would be able to channel their efforts into more productive activity. Strong efforts should be made to reach out to their children and see to it that the values that support independence and productivity are inculcated. Part of this will be doable with programs like Junior Achievement in an educational system that has been freed from the national teacher’s union and part could be fostered by a limited 6 months program of universal military training after the 17th birthday and for every potential immigrant.
LOFTM: I have always like the idea of using them on rickshaws. I was thinking of a commuter service between Wall St. and Grand Central.
Unsk: I certainly hope that the Pope does do that, but that he does not sell them. Just suspend them for a few years.
On a similar matter:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/03/extinguishing_physician_consci.html
The Pope would certainly shut them down if this came to pass.
@Unsk and Mongoose,
They just closed St John’s Hospital in Queens. Under the cover of cost savings and Medicare controls they will squeeze all competition out of the health care field.
Yes I did know that.
Then the Pope should shut them all down at once and explain why.
Every pulpit in the country should explain it.
You know, they did the same thing to parochial schools 30 years ago.
More bad news, from the ever cheerful and occasionally correct Debka:
Six Pakistani police killed, 8 Sri Lanka cricketers injured in suspected Lashkar a-Taibe ambush
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report: That all 14 masked men got away after assaulting the Sri Lankan cricket team on its way to Lahore stadium with rocket launchers and grenades testifies to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. Six members of the police escort, which took the brunt of the ambush Tuesday, March 3, were killed and 8 cricketers injured. A Sri Lankan helicopter carried the team home.
Lashkar e-Taiba, which is linked to al Qaeda, and the local Taliban are advancing relentless to take over and Islamize nuclear-armed Pakistan after seizing one-fifth of the country.
The attack on the visiting cricket team was better planned and organized than the terrorist attack on the Indian town of Mumbai last November by the same hand. The terrorist organizations had clearly drawn their lessons from that attack – unlike Pakistan’s anti-terror agencies.
The outrage which cancelled an important Test match between two of the finest cricket teams in the world threw a spanner in the works of the policy advanced by the new US presidential envoy Richard Holbrooke for patching up the Pakistan-Indian quarrel in order to bring New Delhi into the Afghanistan peacemaking process. India was persuaded to restrain from a reprisal against Pakistan for the Mumbai attack, but Pakistan proved helpless to rein in the rampant Islamist terrorists plaguing the country. In the Northwestern Swat Valley, Islamabad agreed to impose sharia law in return for a permanent ceasefire.
In Mumbai nine of the 10 assailants were killed; in Lahore, all 14 escaped.
The Mumbai attack also targeted a cricket match scheduled to take place between India and the UK.
Even before the Lahore attack, India, Australia, New Zealand and Britain had refused to play in Pakistan. The future of the sport is in question now that South Asia, where cricket and cricketers are revered almost religiously, is in the grip of Islamist terror.
The attack Tuesday was to have taken place in two stages:
First, the gunmen, who came from four directions, blasted the police escort before going on to kill the entire Sri Lankan cricket team. They missed the second part of their mission.
Like their Mumbai fellow, the carried big backpacks. But whereas automatic rifles, grenades and explosives were used in the Indian city, the terrorists in Lahore were armed additionally with rockets, grenades and a large shoulder-borne missile, for smashing the team’s bus, which they failed to do.
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources disclose that most of the Lashkar e-Taibe’s commanders and members pulled out of Pakistan in early 2008 and relocated at al Qaeda hideouts in Afghanistan. But they enjoy enough popularity in the Pakistan street to operate in almost any part of the country and then go safely to ground. The Sri Lankan convoy’s route to Lahore stadium was changed at the last minute but the terrorists nonetheless received a tip-off in time for their ambush.
Forgive the big paste please.
I would not want to see the Church shut down hospitals. That’s rolling over and exposing the jugular. Better yet to engage in civil disobedience. Let’s watch the sheriff drag the nuns and Catholic m.d.’s off to jail.
America has a Navy as an asset. Russia and Iran have Central Asia as an asset. Each of the three may soon have nuclear weapons. Interesting complication regarding the question of whether a navy or Central Asia is the lever of world power.
Time to abandon Afghanistan, removing NATO and leaving the country under the protective asupices of the Organization of Islamic States? Let them fight over it, and against each other?
They just closed St John’s Hospital in Queens.
Birthplace of myself and my children.
I agree that the Catholic hospitals should go “off the grid” rather than be forced to swallow moral poison.
It’s been a tragic shame how one after another, good, effective Catholic schools in poor (i.e. black) neighborhoods have had to shut their doors when vouchers could have saved them, and the so-called black “leadership” has never uttered a peep about it. But then, being a Democrat means you never have to say you’re sorry.
Groan mea culpea, whatever.
Wretchard please just erase it if you can’t un-bold it.
perterike: And yet those same politicians make a point of being seen in the front pew of their local churches every Sunday morning.
Vouchers are key in the mid term. Ultimately though, parents have to pay for their children’s education. If on the local level they still want public schools so be it.
When I was a kid the whole parish sent their children to parochial schools. No exceptions.
that didn’t take long
Medvedev rejects Obama missile defence deal
By Charles Clover in Moscow
Published: March 3 2009 15:12 | Last updated: March 3 2009 15:12
Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday rejected any suggestion that Moscow would “trade or exchange” in policies in order to dissuade the US from installing an anti-ballistic missile system near its borders in Eastern Europe
If the Obama foreign policy cabal wanted this to work we would have never heard about it.
But, if they somehow don’t know that, then backchannel diplomacy is just another thing this administration doesn’t understand. No such deal could ever be even rumored to exist if it were to succeed.
To give them the benefit of the doubt is to believe that the already assumed that the offer would produce nothing, or wanted it to produce nothing, and amounted to a gesture toward dealmaking or a gesture toward nothing.
The trade in and of itself is not a particularly bad one, since missile defense would not really work against the Russian nuclear arsenal but could be very effective if the Iranians tried to use a nuclear missile.
There is also a recognition in this that the Iranians have no real friends and that the Russians are the closest thing that they have to a friendly power in the region, although with the Russians as friends one needs few enemies. The two countries chafe each other, but the Iranians need the Russians far more than the other way around, though both are in miserable shape.
Unless someone in the community wanted to sandbag his “cabal” by leaking it. CIA? Mossad?
Then the Russians would have to come out and deny it.
They might make such a sop to Israel hoping it would buy some time, but I doubt that they would buy it.
If Obama is as corrupt and incompetent as he seems, Israel will run circles around him. Whoever sent him may have overestimated hs intelligence, or underestimated ours.
But whatever happened, now Obama looks like a idiot.
He has done the seemingly impossible: He has made the Russians look like sober, mature statesmen.
What a disaster this man is. Not even two months in yet either.
I always thought that reports of Moscow’s and Tehran’s enmity were overblown. Reports dating from before the time of the czars, of byzantine conflicts between the two parties, should have little bearing on current analyses of Eurasian affairs.
In fact, reports of an obsolete historic frisson b’twixt the two republished in today’s foreign-affairs context, could serve both parties’ nefarious ends.
It’s obvious but I’ll write it anyway: the best cover for any clandestine cooperation is for the active partners to publicly pretend that they share a mutual contempt for each other.
(Duh, huh?)
Modern geopolitical, energy-based analytical templates will frame Russo-Persian affairs much more honestly, I think.
Martin McPhillips said:
“The two countries chafe each other, but the Iranians need the Russians far more than the other way around, though both are in miserable shape.”
It worries me that the Iranians are in such miserable shape. Their whole economy was based upon selling expensive petroleum. At $42.50 dollars/barrel, the Iranians are making almost nothing. Pretty soon the Iranians will have nothing to lose if they opt to pursue military adventures. What effect will it have on our economy if the Iranians play some trick and push petroleum back up to $100 dollars/barrel?
I don’t know much, but a couple of things seem obvious to me.
First, Obama has made it abundantly clear in his campaigning and first six weeks that he wants to cut missile defense. If he wants to cut it anyway, who in the world would accept it as a bargaining chip? I mean, if Russia waits around long enough, Obama will cut it anyway. Why pay extra when patience is all you need.
Also, with Putin and Medvedev are deeply into Gazprom, and Gazprom is developing oilfields in southern Iran. These two are unlikely to do anything that would endanger that relationship as it would curtail their personal earning potential. Obama asking for Russian help with Iran is like asking Putin and Medvedev to open up their wallets.
Surely the brain trust currently in power must grasp these simple concepts.
Gazprom is developing southern Iran – you mean the fields in Kuzestan? Do you have a link for that, Soylent?
Medvedev came straight from Gazprom: he was its CEO before entering the Russian ‘government’.
Right blert. And I believe Putin sits on its board. I know he’s heavily invested in Gazprom.
dan:
Here you go.
If he wants to cut it anyway, who in the world would accept it as a bargaining chip? I mean, if Russia waits around long enough, Obama will cut it anyway. Why pay extra when patience is all you need.
Precisely. And O and the Dems will be cutting way, way more than missle defense in the months and years ahead.
I’ve posted my notions inre Afghanistan at the Club…
The more things evolve, the impracticality of prior strategy is exposed.
LOTM…
I find it most interesting that Holbrooke is bringing India into the Afghani calculus… which is so much of my own thinking.
Again, we need a route into Afghanistan that is unpopulated and unsuitable for small unit ambushes…
A treaty corridor through Baluchistan towards Kandahar that avoids fertile land is the solution.
A path at least as effective as the Burma Road would be a game changer.
I sense that Holbrooke is trying to chill the Pakistanis into accepting the inevitable: Indian mountain troops romping the Kush… putting the hurt on ISI’s shadow army.
@blert,
For your plan, or Holbrooke’s if you portray him faithfully, to work it would mean that the Pakistani urban elites, the old aristocracy and the military Officer Corps would all have to accept that their coreligionists in the hills are a greater threat than the Indians. That would result in two Pakistans, one an occupied hinterland of Pashtuns subject to all the rigors of 19th century missionary pacification of aborigines and a mixed ethnic rump along the Indus valley and sea coast that would be a protectorate of the Indians and Americans. Would that prove to be a more productive, democratic and peaceful long term settlement? Probably but given that the moslems currently in India are not reconciled to their loss of domination over the majority hindus the acceptance of such a role by the Pakistanis is unlikely.
LOTM @54…
My scheme is much more limited. India stays out of Pakistan, but supports Afghanistan over the years.
An Afghan treaty corridor permits her to vector oil and mineral wealth unvexed to the sea.
We provide direction and finance.
Pakistan stays pretty much the way it is. Their civil war is for them to win or lose.
We’re not going to jump in that soup, it certainly can’t have any appeal for the Indians.
So you’re left with the same old single state of Pakistan… status quo ante… nothing more.
From the NYT story (way down): “Officials have been hinting at the possibility of an agreement in recent weeks, and Mr. Obama’s proposal was reported on Monday by a Moscow newspaper, Kommersant.”
The Story broke in Russia, not DC (I do believe Monday in Moscow comes before Monday in DC).
You see, the New York times broke the story to get the Obama Admin spin out before it came from Moscow. The Washington leak was damage control. Don’t think the bureaucracy is turning on Obama and will leak the way they did on Bush. At least, this is not evidence that they will.
Another possibility to consider is that the Obama administration expected a “Nyet” and intended to use this as a means of placating its “nutroots”, by a failed genuflection in their direction, while it pursues some other policy towards Iran which its “nutroots” will be unhappy about.
IMO it simply is not possible, as yet anyway, to determine what the Obama administration’s real motives were here. All we can do is speculate.
@Dan,
“John Q. Public an team are being played by the Obamites, and falling for it, thinking they are running the show. Typical Democrat behavior, dating back more than half a century – help create a problem, then offer to be a part of the solution.”
Changed just a couple of words and WHAM! Right in the kisser.
Also, Raul is known to be lite in the loafers…wink wink. He is purging those that see him as a less than human person. This I am told by a American who swam here to become one. That used to work for Raul’s dept.
Jim
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090302_financial_crisis_and_six_pillars_russian_strength
useful overview by Stratfor’s Dr. George Friedman.
The good doctor doesn’t seem to know much about Russia’s demographic catastrophe.
Russia can’t have much clout when her military age male population is cratering.
It’s going to drop 50% over the next ten years.
By comparison the top dog will have a slowly rising population of military age males coupled to a system that works.
When the Devil Went Down to Georgia it was an embarrassing display of fatigued hardware and a vulnerable air force.
The only ace that Russia has is her organs of deceit and repression.
I still don’t understand the leak, except that it may represent a warning shot from the permanent government to the Obamatrons about who is really running the show.