Not many may have noticed, but the Tamil Tigers are on the verge of defeat in Sri Lanka. The Strategy Page writes
he government lost control of most of northern Sri Lanka in the late 1990s, during a series of embarrassing defeats. Since then, the army has become better trained, equipped and led, while the LTTE has suffered morale and leadership problems. A civil war within the LTTE three years ago cost the organization over a third of its combat forces. The Tamil population became disheartened by over a decade of sacrifice, and not much to show for it. …
The campaign should be over in a month or so, with the remaining LTTE force being killed, captured or scattered. The navy and air force are ready for a massive effort to prevent key LTTE personnel from leaving the island. The government wants to capture and prosecute the LTTE leadership. Few nations will allow LTTE leaders to openly take refuge, but there are many LTTE supporters overseas that would be willing to try and hide the LTTE leadership. The government expects a period of guerilla war in the north, and the continued threat of LTTE terror bombings. The war may be over soon, but the violence will go on for a few more years.
The India Times looks ahead to creating guarantees to protect Tamils from the Sinhalese, suggesting that “India must assist the Sri Lankan government to take out the LTTE, and the same time tell President Rajapakse that following the end of the LTTE, India reserves the right to intervene militarily if the Sri Lanka government does not implement, as promised, a proper devolution of powers for the Tamils under the Constitution of Sri Lanka. ”
It’s interesting to note that the LTTE was defeated after the Sri Lankan government refused to renew its participation in the internationally brokered Ceasefire Agreement. One wonders how much of the Sri Lankan government’s victory is attributable to the relative obscurity of the conflict. While it is commonly believed that international monitoring “humanizes” conflict, it also tends to politicize disputes and perhaps causes them to last longer than they should.
Whether the Tamils and Singhalese can work out a way to live together remains to be seen. But one chapter has ended in the saga.
Im gonna quit calling you wretchard. Its not respectful and inconsistent with the regard in which you should be held. Hereinafter “Mr. Fernandez”:
“international monitoring “humanizes” conflict, it also tends to politicize disputes”
It preserves and protects the conflict making it a legitimate dispute as opposed to a bunch of thugs and brigands preying on an innocent populace. Huntingdon wrote (as I understand) that their standards are not our standards, which can be a basis for misplaced political tolerance. However whatever political standards “they” may have, blowing up non-combatants in a bazaar is not acceptable conduct for any group.
Revolutions are messy processes. Its hard to sort out the “good” guys. But the Tamils were nasty. No sorrow here for them.
I asked earlier in another context about the quality of the Indian Army. This may be an indicator of better quality. Paks take note.
Gotta work on those HTML tags……
LTTE didn’t kill many Americans. That reduced their value to the American Main Stream Media in putting eyes on ads.
It always griped me that America claimed to be fighting a Global War On Terror but never did much to LTTE or ETA or any of the infidel terrorist groups.
Is it common knowledge in the Wast that Hindu LTTE terrorists invented the PBIED?
West
I think we had enough on our plates without getting involved in that sideshow, Cannoneer but I wonder who has been training the Sri Lankan armed forces in the background.
None of our guys that I know have ever been there.
Pretty interesting that it seems to have been Buddhists battling Hindus there but that might only be the subtext. One or both sides might be primarily secularist. I’m glad it is being sorted out and that India is likely to curb any excess on the part of the victors. I’m happy to leave them to it.
In the early days (circa 1980 onwards) the Sri Lankan army consisted of thuggish low lifes good only for bullying hapless civilians and committing atrocities. For that reason the LTTE ran circles around them. But the depredations of the LTTE against their own Tamils and the better training of the Sri Lankan army (apparently its under the Israelis) has turned the situation around. I shed no tears for the LTTE since they have a callous disregard for human life. When the dust settles, the only interest that India has is to protect the human rights of the Tamils and ensure the orderly repatriation of those Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India who wish to return.
If the Indians reconcile with the Sinhalese at the expense of the Tamils it would be a strategic shift of consequence. The equivalent in the Middle East would be the Arabs dropping the Palestinians so that they and the Israelis could face Iran without entanglements or everybody screwing the Kurds. Of course that last is a perpetual given. If India does focus on the Islamic threat in partnership with China and Israel then this war becomes winnable. The problems with that scenario are 1) Indian politics, Delhi issued a statement of support for Hamas yesterday that needs explanation by someone who understands more than I do and 2) Obama who is almost guaranteed to snatch defeat for the West from the jaws of victory.