I’ve visited Turkey a number of times, but always while on my way to some other place. I’ve never hunkered down there and gotten to work.
The country has become both more important and more bewildering lately, so I asked Claire Berlinski, my colleague at City Journal, if she could explain it to the rest of us. She has lived in Istanbul for five years and knows the country as well or better than just about any American writer.
MJT: First of all, what is it about Istanbul that has kept you there for so many years?
Claire Berlinski: I wake up every day and ask myself this question, actually. No one ever believes me when I try to explain this; but as usual the truth is boring and human. I never intended to live in Istanbul for five years. I moved here in the first place because my then-boyfriend, later fiance, later ex-fiance, lived here. He’s an American photojournalist, and he’d made Istanbul his base because it was a convenient flight from all the places gonzo photojournalists like to go. (Insert your favorite geographic “East meets West, crossroads of civilization” cliché here.) Also, at the time–right after the big economic crash–it was a cheap place to live, though it’s not now. So I moved here for the most uninteresting of reasons: a boyfriend.
Of course, I quickly discovered that Istanbul was interesting beyond all description–historically, culturally, politically–and quickly realized that Turkey was the most comprehensively misunderstood, under-reported story in the region. (I say this as someone who has not, actually, seen all of the region; I guess for all I know there are even more misunderstood countries that receive even less serious attention: But I wouldn’t know.) I became quite obsessed with trying to figure out what on earth is really happening here, and increasingly convinced that what people think is happening here, based on reporting in the English-language press, ranges from “half-right, with the most important half wrong,” to “delusional.”
Claire Berlinski
David and I split up–for the usual boring reasons that men and women split up–but by then I had a life here that wasn’t easy just to dismantle. For one thing, I’d adopted seven cats. That was never the plan, either, but I found them abandoned, as kittens, all near death from starvation and cold, so I took them home thinking, “I’ll just nurse them back to health and then I’ll find good homes for them,” and predictably, being middle-aged and childless, fell too deeply in love with them to put them back on the street or give them away. The idea of trying to move somewhere else with seven cats is sufficiently daunting that you just don’t do it on a whim. And all my stuff is here–my books, a whole apartment full of stuff that would be a huge hassle to move–and some of my closest friends, and besides, where do you go after Istanbul? Wouldn’t anyplace else be boring? I often think, “What on earth am I doing here? Shouldn’t I move?” But then I think, “What a hassle that would be, and where exactly would I go?” And somehow that’s ended up with me waking up in the morning and thinking–”Five years in Turkey? How did that happen?”–and having no better answer for you than that.
MJT: What is going on with the Turkish government? The prime minister is increasingly creepy these days. Is he actually joining the Iranian- and Syrian-led resistance bloc, or is he just competing with it for influence in the Middle East as an alternative champion of similar causes?
Claire Berlinski: The AKP’s senior figures grandly imagine themselves as the heirs to Ottoman statesmen. They promote this understanding of their behavior at every opportunity. “You forget,” many an AKP spokesman has said to me, “that we’ve been in this region for years. We know it better than you do. Trust us.”
But the Ottoman Empire to which they are appealing exists in their fantasies. They do not, in fact, know much about the real Ottoman Empire. Nor do they possess the Ottomans’ knowledge of the region, nor do they exhibit the Ottomans’ diplomatic sophistication. If they did, the lessons they would draw would be entirely different.
AKP spokesmen always insist that Turkey is categorically opposed to an Iranian Bomb. This is not a lie. Even if we imagine them as their most ardent enemies portray them—as fervent religious zealots whose overarching goal is to transform Turkey into a theocracy—it still defies imagination that they could be so stupid as to want a nuclear Iran on their border.
They are zealots, perhaps, but not quite in the way their critics are imagining. They’re zealots of delusional optimism and overconfidence. They have sincerely convinced themselves that they will be able to befriend Iran, dissuade it from going nuclear, and profit greatly from this relationship in the process. They refuse to entertain the idea that the Iranians view them as useful idiots. In this sense, yes, it is correct to see their Islamism, or at least their religious devotion, as relevant: Prime Minster Erdoğan and Foreign Affairs minister Ahmet Davutoğlu are genuinely naïve enough to think all Muslims can be trusted. (The discovery that neither Qaddafi nor Assad meant well, nor had they the slightest interest in listening to Turkey when push came to shove, came as a complete shock to them. You can see this on their faces: They are sporting expressions now that call to mind nothing so much as Harold Camping on May 21st at 6:01 pm.)
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Much like its domestic policy, the AKP’s foreign policy focuses on the short-term. The party seeks to stay in power from election to election while making itself and its supporters as wealthy as possible as quickly as possible. Its policies are grounded in wishful thinking, greed, grandiosity, naiveté and emotion. They are not grounded in logic, and they are certainly not grounded in a “realistic, rational analysis of the strategic picture.” These policies are not merely annoying to the West—they are in the long term economically and strategically suicidal for Turkey, be that Turkey a secular state or a theocracy. Both the AKP and foreign observers have become so smitten with the AKP’s own legend that they have failed to notice this.
A policy of generating and exploiting anti-Israel and Islamist sentiment is, to be sure, an electoral crowd-pleaser in the short-term. The AKP may be able to win several more elections on the back of it. It may well succeed in permanently changing Turkey’s domestic political landscape by at once creating public demand for an anti-Western policy orientation and meeting that demand.
But in the long term and in reality, Israel poses absolutely no strategic threat to Turkey. Nor does the United States. Nor does Europe. Iran, however, poses a massive threat—and all evidence suggests that the Ottomans would have perfectly understood this. It is Iran, not Turkey, that may plausibly be seen to be advancing both a coherent Islamist agenda and realistic, rational, long-term plan to establish itself as the region’s economic and diplomatic hegemon. It is Iran’s leadership, not Turkey’s, that in fact knows the region well.
What the AKP seems to be missing is this: Iran’s emergence as a nuclear state will overturn the entire regional power equilibrium. Turkey’s vulnerability to this is the most pronounced in NATO, and the AKP’s nonchalance about this is astounding. Neither a massive conventional army nor “strategic depth” are of the slightest value against weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, which is precisely why Iran wants them in the first place—obviously.
When Turkish spokesmen say they cannot imagine circumstances under which Iran would employ such weapons against Turkey, they are either disingenuous or stupid. One need not actually launch a nuclear weapon to change the strategic landscape. A nuclear-armed Iran would unhesitatingly begin exporting Shi’a radicalism throughout the region, and Turkey is part of the region. Iran has tried this before: The Turkish military ended up deporting the mullahs, but then, they could. Anyone in Turkey who believes the Iranians would refrain from influencing Turkish internal politics if they could get away with it has been paying no attention whatsoever to the way Iran operates throughout the region: It is only Turkey’s conventional military superiority that has dissuaded Iran from treating Turkey precisely as it does every other weak power in this neighborhood.
The mere announcement of the news that Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold will have an immediate, devastating effect on Turkey’s stature—that day will be the last we ever hear about a rising Turkey, Anatolian tigers, the Islamic-economic dynamo, or the revival of the Ottoman Empire.
Istanbul, Turkey
MJT: How can the Turkish government be this dense?
Claire Berlinski: If you speak to anyone in the AKP—anyone who is staying on message, that is—you will hear the same words. “Sanctions don’t work. Engagement is the only possible path. You must trust us. We know Iran so much better than you do. Remember, we have been dealing with this region for centuries. Let us handle the diplomacy, we’re experts.” They believe this. They have absolutely persuaded themselves of this. They have persuaded many Western observers, too. But as Iranian friend of mine here in Istanbul put it, “They don’t understand the Iranian mentality at all. They haven’t even read a book about them.” He is a refugee from the regime. He knows its mentality all too well, alas.
The Ottomans Empire had settlements throughout the region, but not in Persia. And it is important to remember that Turkey experienced a profound rupture from its own history in 1922, when Atatürk purged the bureaucracy of its Ottoman elements, Westernized the education system, and replaced the Ottoman script with a Latin one. Every Turk born thereafter has been cut off from Ottoman culture. Turks of our generation can for the most part no more read Ottoman than a Latvian could. There is no special reason to think Turkish policy makers know Ottoman history intimately. There is no special reason to think they know recent history intimately. “Turkey’s regional knowledge is new,” said another journalist here. “It was cut off during the Cold War. The AKP is trying to recreate a lost past, but it’s a past according to them—a fantastic narrative. They don’t want to know why the Ottoman Empire collapsed after 200 agonizing years. ‘Trust us, we know Iran?’— that’s total bullshit.”
Turkish policy makers are probably even more cut off from the realities of Iran than American ones—American policy makers, after all, at least occasionally receive reports from professional analysts who read Farsi, and they probably even read them from time to time. The United States has had far more contact with the reality of Iranian foreign policy lately than the Turks—it’s the Americans who are in Iraq, not Turkey. Turkey, as its leaders are always keen to remind the world, stayed out of there, and it shows. There may have been a time when Americans couldn’t tell the difference between Sunnis and Shi’ites. They sure grasp that now. Some senior members of the AKP—Gül in particular—may justly claim to know the Saudis and Arab culture well. But Saudis and the Iranians are not the same. It is possible they are gravely confusing the Arab and Persian worlds—an irony given that every Turk alive will be rightly dismissive of the suggestion that one might easily confuse Turks and Arabs.
No one in the AKP leadership can remotely claim expertise on Persian culture, history, and negotiating strategy—and no one appears to have any deep familiarity with more than a millennium of Turkic-Persian rivalry. The Ottomans, by comparison, were intimately familiar with Persian culture, not least because they understood Persian. Persian was the first language of bureaucracy in Seljuk and early Ottoman Anatolia. Of course, to prevent the encroachment of Shi’ite ideas, the Ottomans were not taught Persian until the age of six—by that age, it was hoped, one’s Sunni identity would be strong enough to withstand the corruption. But from the age of six, literate Ottomans were steeped in it.
Not so, today. Faruk Loğoğlu, the former ambassador to the United States, put it this way: “Even today there might not be a single minister in the Foreign Service who speaks Persian. There may be some who have taken courses. I know for sure that when I was in the Foreign Service, the number who spoke Arabic was maybe one. I don’t think there were any who spoke Persian.” He thought there were perhaps one or two in the Turkish intelligence services. No one in the foreign service wishes to study Persian: competence in the language, after all, might result in being posted to Iran.
Iranian Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iranians, on the other hand, know this region’s history exceptionally well. As Volkan Vural– Turkey’s former ambassador to Iran—remarked, “Iran has cultural continuity. That gives them an enormous advantage—they remember what happened centuries ago, We need a translator.”
The Iranians have real reasons to believe they know Turkey well. About thirty percent of its population is Azeri, which is to say that an important segment of Iran understands Turkish fluently. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s first language is Azeri. Azeris are now in the center of power, even more so than in the past. Turkish television broadcasts throughout the region; many in the Iranian leadership understand it. This understanding does not flow both ways.
The incompetence in Turkey has surely been reinforced by the incompetence of the White House, particularly by Obama’s willingness to play the fantasy game along with Turkey. “He can’t play the religious game. He should be playing the security game,” said Loğoğlu. His policy toward Turkey, he said, “is a bad imitation of the worst parts of Orientalism.”
Istanbul, Turkey
MJT: What should be Washington’s policy toward Turkey right now?
Claire Berlinski: First thing: Speak up. Something people may not realize is that journalists here who are (for good reason) afraid to express their own opinions feel more protected if they’re quoting someone else’s, especially those of top-ranking US officials–no one can argue that those are not legitimate news. So one way to help Turkish journalists get information to Turkish people–which they need, desperately–is simply to say it. It makes a huge impact when the US ambassador notes that a hell of a lot of journalists seem to be getting arrested. That makes headlines, and brings awareness of that issue and why it’s a problem to a much wider audience.
The issue of endless pretrial detentions, not only in the case of the Ergenekon suspects, but as standard judicial operating procedure–why are we silent about that? Why aren’t we saying, “This is a major cause for concern?” Why aren’t we saying that the Ergenekon investigations are a legal travesty, and explaining, in detail, why we think this? Why did we praise last year’s constitutional referendum as some kind of great step forward for Turkish democracy, when in fact even the dimmest first-year law student could see that it contained clauses that severely imperil the independence of the judiciary? Ricciardone has been stronger than I expected him to be on some of this stuff, but the message needs to be much stronger still.
MJT: It’s obvious that Erdoğan has a low opinion of Israel, and I presume of Jews generally, but what do average Turks think? I know they aren’t huge fans of Israel, but are their opinions closer to the Arab or European view?
Claire Berlinski: Wide spectrum of attitudes. Turks are exceptionally sensitive to accusations of anti-Semitism, this being (rightly) associated in their minds with accusations of being Nazi-like, and that in turn associated with extreme sensitivity about the Armenian genocide. (What many don’t understand about Turkish public opinion on this is that few Turks fully understand what the word “genocide” means: They think they’re being called “Nazis,” which is one reason they become outraged by the charge. Often the same people who will be moved to fury by the phrase “Armenian genocide” will freely and with great sadness discuss the “tragic events,” unaware that the legal word for what they’re describing is “genocide.” But I digress.)
There’s still widespread pride that Turkey was a refuge to Jews expelled from Spain and Portugal and later fleeing the Nazis. But I would say that almost universally with some notable exceptions, Turks are to some degree anti-Semitic: Jews occupy their minds as a focus of bizarre conspiracy theories (mind you, so does everyone–the ruling AKP party, the Gulen movement, the British, the Freemasons: It’s like a whole country is dedicated to the proposition that Lyndon Larouche was right); there is almost universal anti-Semitism in the modern European sense, in that Israel is held to different standards than countries not chiefly comprised of Jews (an anti-Semitism characterized by the words, “You shouldn’t be called anti-Semitic, just because you criticize Israel,” coupled with a demonstrable lack of interest in criticizing any other country).
There is certainly now a strain of anti-Semitism in the modern Arab sense–a perverse mutation and direct inheritor of the most wicked strains of European exterminationist anti-Semitism. You know, the dripping-fang caricatures, words like “parasites,” “Death to Israel,” etc. That strain comes from the Arab world. It’s not indigenous to Turkey. But as everyone keeps saying, and it’s true, one of the big achievements of the AKP government has been to broaden Turkey’s contacts with the Arab world. I doubt the latter strain is of appeal to more than ten percent of the population, and certainly there’s revulsion toward it from the majority, but there’s way too much and it’s shameful.
MJT: What’s up with this second Turkish flotilla to Gaza? Surely the government knows about it if you and I know about it, and the government clearly did not try to stop it. What is Ankara hoping to achieve with this stunt?
The blockade-busting Mavi Marmara
Claire Berlinski: Of course Ankara knows about it. The government is hoping to keep this whole issue from blowing up in its face before the election, and plans to think about it afterwards–right now it’s dealing with a head-spinning number of domestic and foreign policy crises, and I mean crises. The flotilla is on page 60 of their list of “emergencies to worry about.” I wrote about this here and here, and I don’t think I can put it better:
They let that genie out of the bottle. They’ve got no idea how to stuff it back in. Davutoğlu pretty much admitted this a couple days ago: No, he said, the government would not try to stop the new flotilla, because it couldn’t:
The government also refuses to pressure İHH to stop the new flotilla, saying it is a civilian initiative and, as a democratic country, it cannot intervene in the decisions of civil society groups.
“It is an Orientalist belief that nongovernmental groups in Turkey move when they are told by the state to move and stop when they are told to do so,” he said.
Do not be skeptical: I suspect he’s telling the truth. It is a very telling statement. They can’t control this little monster they nourished. It looked so cute when it was a puppy, but now that thing weighs 800 pounds. They’re just praying that if they keep feeding it, somehow it will stay focused on Israel, not them–oh, and on Syria, by the way. Lately the IHH has been staging protests in Istanbul against the Syrian regime. That’s awkward, too.
MJT: Was the Turkish resistance against the Iraq war mostly about their fear and loathing of an independent Kurdistan, or was something else going on, too?
Claire Berlinski: That was certainly a big part, as well as the fear (which proved well-founded) that they’d be left holding the bag if refugees began streaming across the border. They knew it was going to be a bloodbath, which it was. Their perspective on it was similar to their perspective on Iran now. We were saying, “It’s going to be a bloodbath now or an unimaginable bloodbath later.” They were saying, “Well, we can’t deal with that now. We really can’t. So it’s not happening.” That’s actually a pretty typical Turkish posture to life across the board, by the way, not just in foreign policy, and it’s not confined to the current government.
MJT: What happened to the Turkish army? The military of yore would have removed the AKP from power by now, right?
Claire Berlinski: Of yore, maybe. Of today, I don’t think so. If they had wanted to remove them, they could have. I think people miss a key point, which is that the coups were horrible. People suffered terribly. The military knows full well that it is no trivial thing to topple a legitimate, democratically-elected government–they would be left in control of a country that hated them. And most of them, contrary to popular belief, believe to a greater or lesser degree in democracy, and know that a coup would set Turkey back decades–economically, politically, in world opinion. In the past, coups were preceded by such an extreme breakdown of public order that by the time the military stepped in, people were relieved. That hasn’t happened here. If you take the Ergenekon nonsense seriously, you’ll believe that the military was planning to create that kind of breakdown in public order by staging a series of terrorist attacks on Turkish soil, but the more I look at these accusations, the more obviously fraudulent they appear–the so-called Balyoz case, for example, rests upon a document that was supposedly drawn up in 2002, but makes reference to companies that only came into existence years later; the thing is riddled with anomalies like that.
MJT: You keep writing about the PKK’s terrorism in a despairing tone of voice, wondering why the rest of us aren’t taking it seriously. Do you see another war between Turks and Kurds on the horizon, or are you just frustrated that few outside Turkey seem interested if innocents get blown up in Istanbul?
PKK fighter
Claire Berlinski: Both. This divide is far more volatile and dangerous than people realize. They’re focusing on the so-called Islamist-secular divide (which is a misleading way of putting it; everyone here is a Muslim, pretty much, and all claim to be committed to secularism, pretty much–the distinction is much more complex than the phrasing suggests). But that stands a good chance of being resolved democratically, although not necessarily in a way that’s good for Turkey or the region.
The possibility that the Kurdish issue will simply explode, soon, and very violently, seems totally unappreciated outside of Turkey. I mean, it has already–40,000 deaths, with no end in sight.
Destroyed village in Turkish Kurdistan
And yes, it drives me insane that these attacks happen in the middle of Istanbul and the world shrugs. I can’t figure out why–is it because the PKK isn’t an Islamist group, so people can’t fit it conveniently into a broader narrative? Is it because Istanbul doesn’t seem real to people, the way maybe Paris or Rome would?
You have to imagine that if a group linked to al Qaeda blew off a woman’s leg in Fortnum and Mason in London, that would have made headlines in the US, wouldn’t you? Well, the PKK blew off a woman’s leg right outside an upscale shopping mall here last week, and I don’t think anyone outside of Turkey even heard about it. Recently they tried to burn a dormitory full of kids to the ground, leaving kids with massive burns, critical wounds–kids!–and if you read only the mainstream US media, you’d never have heard about it.
Turkish Kurdistan
You’d hear about it for sure if Israelis did that to Palestinians, wouldn’t you? Or if Salafists did it to Copts in Egypt? Some friends and I were laughing, darkly, about how frustrated the PKK must be: “We blew up a bus stop! We killed a police officer! We tried to whack the prime minister! Kids, we burnt a school full of kids! What more do we need to do to get people to notice? Do we need to get on Twitter with this Weiner guy?”
MJT: How much does radical Islam influence the AKP’s thinking? They’re obviously not Al Qaeda or the Taliban, and they don’t look like quite the Muslim Brotherhood, either.
Claire Berlinski: Islamism does play a part in the AKP’s doctrine. But it is more heuristically useful to use this as your starting assumption: They don’t have a doctrine. Certainly, the leadership hopes to assume a leading role in the Islamic world and the Middle East economy. There is in fact a major obstacle in their way, but they don’t want to think about it. They genuinely believe the Iranian threat is exaggerated. They have persuaded themselves that the world is alarmed about Iran only because it’s an Islamic country, and they know Islamic countries better. And besides, they need the money, now. “Our long-term political interests have been subdued by our short-term interests,” one diplomat lamented.
They are willing to take a subtle vein of anti-Western sentiment that runs through Turkish society and gin it up, to make it an overt, driving sentiment. But the game they have started has created its own dynamics, and soon they will be hostage to it. If they tell you that they have to follow this policy because it is what the electorate wants, remember to ask them who, exactly, has been telling the electorate they should want this in the first place.
Istanbul's Grand Bazaar
It is not just Iran. Turkey has nothing to show for the domestic and international political risk it took by inviting exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal to Ankara to speak at the AKP headquarters last year. As the Turkish columnist Abdulhamit Bilici allows on the pages of Zaman—a paper closely associated with the government—“Hamas did not take any steps toward improvement, which was the most unfortunate aspect of this move. However, if Hamas, which had agreed to enter elections, had given even the tiniest hint that it would distance itself from violence, this would have had massive repercussions. If Mashaal had given such a signal, this would have prevented the division in Palestine and avoided the international embargoes and Turkey would have gained great prestige.” Well, yes. And if they’d discovered a cure for cancer, Turkey’s prestige would have been enhanced even further.
But reality seems to have no impact on the optimism of anyone observing these events. “While it did not have the intended results,” Bilici continues, “this diplomatic initiative served to increase Turkey’s effectiveness in the region. Obviously this has played an important role in making Turkey the key player in the Gaza crisis and helping it be actively involved in the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.”
Oh, really?
To look at the results of any of these policies is to come to the same conclusion. Turkey is kidding itself and it is harming itself, and the rest of the world is going along for the ride. Over and over, the same themes emerge: naiveté, wishful thinking, and sheer incompetence, which no one is pointing out because everyone is swallowing the AKP’s line: “Trust us, we know what we’re doing!”
Unfortunately, this is not a strategic doctrine: It’s just famous last words.
Claire Berlinski is the author of Menace in Europe: Why the Continent’s Crisis Is America’s, Too
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The Levant is a mosaic of ethnic, tribal and religious components that easily trap themselves in death spirals of hatred, vendetta and revenge.
They have a history of dragging in other nations to fix their problem
—bad idea for America
–as Reagan well understood when he got us out of Lebanon–fast.
The best thing for American interests is to stay out of the whole Levant quagmire.
The new NATO strategy was committed to last November at the Lisbon Summit
–it is worth reading because that is the new NATO strategy and membership for the next 15 years.
The UK is the most important NATO ally for US interests–as even Obama now acknowledges.
Turkey is also strategically important to NATO–because
1/ It is the largest democracy in the ME region with 72 million people and a GDP growth rate of 7% year over year
2/ It has been a loyal US/NATO ally since 1954, fought on our side in the Korean war
3/ It pays its own way and does not ask for handouts from US taxpayers
The new reality is that American strategic interests have shifted far to the east
–including India, Indonesia, S Korea, Japan, Australia etc–because
1/ CHINA has ramped up its Blue Water Fleet capability dramatically and China is now focused upon securing the Second Island Chain and the total resources of the South China Sea and into the Indian Ocean.
2/ China’s Second Island Chain Strategy is very relevant to American fundamental interests.
The Levant is trivial to American fundamental interest–and we waste far to much money, focus and time on the Levant—of course they are happy to take our American taxpayers money in handouts–as much as they can get away with.
The fulcrum of American interests has shifted to the East
–Gates told us and Petreaus told us
–it IS the new reality.
The Levant is trivial in comparison.
I like Claire Berlinski, met her at an Ox-bridge conference a few years ago, she is very bright and incisive and I hope her cats thrive.
Nice to hear the personal/human perspective–often lacking in FP reports.
“The best thing for American interests”
What do you care about American interests when you are a Turk working for Turkish Islamists, Victor? How much are you getting paid to whitewash Turkish support for the bloody Assad regime of Syria?
The descriptions of the AKP really made me laugh, she could have been talking about the American Democrats of the Obama persuasion. So is the AKP the Islamic version of the Obama administration?
No matter, it was an interesting read & provided insights I hadn’t seen elsewhere.
Turkey is also strategically important to NATO–because
1/ It is the largest democracy in the ME region with 72 million people and a GDP growth rate of 7% year over year
But just a second:
“Turkey has more journalists in prison than any other country in the world, including China and Iran, according to a press release issued Monday by the International Press Institute.”
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=ipi-report-declares-turkey-world-leader-of-imprisoned-journalists-2011-04-08
2/ It has been a loyal US/NATO ally since 1954, fought on our side in the Korean war
But hold on:
“Turkey ‘let America down’ in its decision not to allow U.S. troops to use Turkish soil to invade Iraq at the start of the war in 2003, former President George W. Bush wrote in his recently released book.”
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-let-the-us-down-says-former-president-bush-2010-11-10
3/ It pays its own way and does not ask for handouts from US taxpayers
But wait a moment:
“The United States has consistently helped Turkey in its fight against terrorism. Frank Ricciardone, U.S. ambassador to Turkey, estimates that U.S. assistance to Turkey’s anti-terror fight costs American tax payers about $1 million per day, well over a quarter billion dollars each year.”
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/05/21/why-doesnt-obama-pressure-turkey-on-terror/
Keep peddling, Victor. Peddle fast. Peddle hard. Don’t stop!
File under: “I love to laugh….”
1. Istanbul is one of the world’s most beautiful, most interesting cities.
2. Turkey is a country of extremes (so what else is new?…). Phenomenally beautiful, diverse topographically and culturally, several millenia of history, a people that can be friendly, yet cruel; sophisticated, yet backward, with extraordinary levels of ignorance (so what else is new”…), which are being milked by the AKP to the detriment of the secular elements of the population. Alas, Kemalism is for all intents and purposes dead. (All generalizations are false, etc….)
3. I admire Claire Belinski immensely.
4. But Claire Belinsky is not enough. One must read Orhan Pamuk. Must
Having said all that, I fear that what Ms. Belinsky describes as “bugs” are viewed as “features” by the AKP.
In a nutshell: “The Valley of the Wolves” (but one doesn’t want to go there, not really):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valley_of_the_Wolves:_Iraq
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valley_of_the_Wolves:_Palestine
So what does it all mean? Nothing? Something? And what does its sheer popularity mean?
Of course,my favorite is:
http://www.jpost.com/JewishWorld/JewishNews/Article.aspx?id=172472
Indeed, much better to ignore it all.
File under: Ignorance is bliss (until it isn’t).
These comments are very interesting, but I’d like to know more about the individual backgrounds of the personalities behind these commentators. Depth is needed. I know, I know, forget that; that’s the whole purpose of pen names…..still there’s an essential element missing in these comments.
That’s exactly why Totten’s interview of Claire Berlinski was so interesting….he’s led her on, and led her out, out to explain about the circumstances of why she was even in Turkey, of all places. Now, that “missingness” has evaporated here with Claire Berlinski…the name is now more than a byline with a date.
Now we know that Claire Berlinski’s opinions have a “background”, cats…boyfriend…..pragmatic… ‘boring’… (her word) common sense….inquisitiveness…she’s snart, and human.
And, importantly,she seems to know whereof she speaks.
Thanks, Michael Totten.
I was in Istanbul two weeks ago (the “last week” from the interview) and heard about the bombing late in the afternoon. My first thought was that my mother might hear about it and worry, so I sent a quick “I’m doing fine, having a good time email”.
Turns out she hadn’t heard about the bomb, and never did until I mentioned it.
Turns out the Turkish government is almost as funny as Victor.
Gosh, who’d a thunk it?
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=223924
But Syria is giving Turkey a run for its money.
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=223917
No wonder the two countries understand each other so well…
This is a great article. I do wish it took one further step, perhaps for a followup. The first point that struck me was what happens if on a Tuesday Iran announces it’s crossed the threshold and on Wednesday Turkey does the same. At that point Turkey is *not* eclipsed and the AKP is not as foolish as they appear to be. The US political position would be in tatters and NATO would be convulsed but Turkey’s position, on net, would likely improve. This is not to say that the AKP has actually done this, merely that one of the branches on any strategic decision tree regarding Turkey should consider whether the Turks are actually competent.
The airbase at Incirlik currently hosts 40 nuclear weapons (B61 is the designation) under the control of the Turkish Air Force as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing program along with a somewhat larger number of nuclear bombs under US control. If there is a nuclear Iran, does anybody really think that those 40 weapons don’t count as a real strategic deterrent for Turkey?
Right now those nuclear weapons are not within the psychic calculus of most people in the region. Any chest beating by Iran can be countered calmly, rationally, by pointing out that these bombs have been under Turkish control for years, the delivery system is very well tested, and the design is rock solid, none of which is likely going to be true for any Iranian weapons.
Now all of this is going to be a proliferation nightmare and the US absolutely does not want to walk down this road. But the road is there if Iran forces the trip.
@6 And, importantly,she seems to know whereof she speaks. Thanks, Michael Totten.
Agreed..
TMLutas is technically 100% correct but then what where these Chinese war planes doing in Turky lately?
Ms Berlinski is making a fool out of Erd. he is not ! he has long history of political activity and has done well, a fool would not have done that well. I think she is wrong about the Marmara, there are enough people in the Turkish armed services who know how to stop such ship. The Turkish PM and his friend realy want to send that ship to Gaza.
“Turkish policy makers are probably even more cut off from the realities of Iran than American ones—American policy makers, after all, at least occasionally receive reports from professional analysts who read Farsi, and they probably even read them from time to time.”
Considering how faulty US policy is proving, that makes Turkey seem positively obtuse. My own experience with Turkey and Iran goes back to 1976 when, in Jerusalem doing the last of my studies in international politics, I made a trip to Iran via Turkey. The contrast then was striking. I then described Turkey as a fallen empire that was still falling, while Iran – flush with oil money – was a rising power. (I also encountered blatant evidence of hostility toward Israel in Turkey.)
What makes Iran such a threat is not just its theology-driven politics. It is the fact that they have clearly laid out their objectives – driving the US out of the Mideast, destroying Israel, and asserting regional dominance – and are working clearly toward achieving those objectives. All its moves – creating Hizbullah and its overseas cells, the nuclear project, its moves in Yemen and Iraq, its alignment with Syria and Turkey, etc. – are all moves in its great game.
But while Iran is playing chess, the US is playing … what exactly? Poker maybe, under the assumption it has an endless line of credit, bluffing and folding even when it has a good hand, thinking there’s always a next round. Does anyone know what the US objectives are (aside from what Obama calls the “fierce moral urgency” of creating a Palestinian state), or its strategies to achieve them?
TMLutas is technically 100% correct about the A weapons but then what where these Chinese war planes doing in Turky lately?
Ms Berlinski is making a fool out of Erd. he is not ! he has long history of political activity and has done well, a fool would not have done that well. I think she is wrong about the Marmara, there are enough people in the Turkish armed services who know how to stop such ship. The Turkish PM and his friends realy want to send that ship to Gaza.
Given the amazing growth of Turkey’s economy and its rising regional influence, it’s hard to accept the sweeping negative generalizations made about the Turkish government’s ignorance.
They saved themselves a huge headache by not getting into the Iraq mess and they’ve made billions taking over lost Western trade deals with Iran.
Are you suggesting TML that the US cannot remove these weapons from Turkey if it wishes, or rather that doing so would encourage Turkey to make their own weapons? The answer for the latter might lie in the events unfolding now regarding the Turkish military, but I believe the US owns the warheads and delivery systems and can remove them as they have in the past (Jupiter Cs initiating the Cuban Missile Crisis). Removing them may break the NATO alliance so already there is enormous US pressure on Turkey regarding its suspected intelligence sharing with Assad and Ahmadinejad. Not sure where else Erdogan would turn and despite the uptick in anti-Western sentiment, I think there exists a healthy disgust for the present direction. Berlinski’s views by the way, seem fairly consistent with other journalists including Michael.
Erdogan channeled economic reform to win and then moved into an Islamic spin on nationalism. Bush invading Iraq turned the corner for Erdogan’s game plan. Israel did not manage things very well either. Now, he is exactly at the point where this crap is going to bite him in the ass. I see no advantage in Turkey ruining their relations with the US, Europe and NATO. With gunmen killing 37 Syrian security agents today, from Lebanon through Syria to Iraq, Erdogan faces his not so nice neighbor’s chaos fueled by his buddies in Iran and Hizboland and those that now hate them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/06/us-syria-ambush-idUSTRE7553AI20110606
The purpose of our nukes in Turkey was to deter the Soviets. I think the time has come to agree that Turkey should no longer be the focus of the Cold War past. In a gesture to the Russians we should swap our nukes with a missile defense system. Perhaps the Russians would agree to targeting Iran and Pakistan and perhaps Syria and Lebanon to protect Europe from the growing missile menace……
If Turkey refuses, then what curtain are they for Western security?
As for China by the way, protests surge in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines etc, over the false claims on territorial waters made by China. (what better for Greece now than to auction their drilling rights in the Aegean?) What China’s new navy has accomplished is to unify their neighbors against China’s designs. I rather doubt with NK increasing enormous fears, China will avoid losing significant appeal encircling its shores. There are serious internal problems. Perhaps the most significant external worry is a decrease in energy flowing from the ME and MENA and that its navy and air force can play little role. In fact, China’s suggested offers of the J-20 to Pakistan has put a whole new look on Chinese intentions. In this predictable shift India is aligned further towards the US/Israeli side. Pakistan and Iran represent the two most dangerous countries and in this regard, China is playing a poor game. And in general, it appears the Russians accept this strategic assessment.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2011/06/must-read-tell-all-interview-w-1.html
The US withdrew all nuclear weapons from Turkey during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
etc. – are all moves in its great game.
Nor should one overlook Iran’s establishing of missile bases in Venezuela—presumably while Obama is reading Hugo’s autobiography….
I think that what TMLutas overlooks in his eye-opening speculation—is it absolutely true that Turkey was given control over NATO’s nukes in Incirlik?—is that while there well may be distrust between Iran and Turkey (between Shia and Sunni; between Ottoman and Farsi dreams of glories past regained), that the two may, at least in the short-to-medium range, have certain goals in common. That is, that they may be able to co-exist without—inevitably?—going head to head. At least, not in the forseeable future.
What might those goals be? What spheres of influence might they wish to divvy up
(if in fact, that is a realistic view of things)?
They may both regard Iraq, once the US leaves the theater, as ripe fruit. Surely Kirkuk beckons, as far as Turkey is concerned; and the Shi’ite southeast and oil-rich Shatt-al-Arab must be a sore temptation for the mullahs. And are not those mullahs gazing in the direction of Mecca? as they press to rechristen (as it were) the Arab Gulf the Persian? while strongarming their oil-laden and skittish neighbors to the south (and west)
As far as Turkey is concerned, the Mediterranean is its, a matter of more than idle interest now that vast reserves of natural gas have been found in the eastern end (and found by Israel, at that; grrrr!!).
If this way of looking at things has any credence at all, it would seem obvious that both Turkey and Iran would regard Israel, if only for strategic reasons, as the single obstacle that must be expunged. Israel will not allow itself to be pushed out of the Mediterranean’s natural gas fields (though it will be certainly willing to share the bounty). Nor will Israel sit back if Jordan is attacked, and may well respond should the Saudis be attacked as well.
If one adds to these real-politik, self-interested objectives of Turkey and Iran (if they are in fact, the case), the religio-ideological passions (or perhaps excuses) that must eliminate “Palestinian suffering” and shame,—and the very existence of a Jewish State in Dar al Islam—it would seem quite clear that Israel should be rather worried, all the more so since Egypt, with all its fancy hardware and US-trained military (for what its worth), not to mention its idle millions and its—shall we say?—no great love for the Jewish State, seems to have concluded, in its wisdom, that it has sacrificed enough of its golden self-respect for the dross of thirty odd years of non-hostilities with its true enemy.
So while it makes sense to believe that Turkey and Iran will vie for influence, I’m not sure that this is certain in the short run, at least not while/if there exists a much larger goal that both have in common.
Certainly, Iran has no end of internal problems; but its twelver theology appears to have been able to offer it definite priorities (much to the detriment of its population). Turkey, too, is most likely a lot less stable than it appears on the surface, if only because it has fallen back into clericism, and Islamic clericism at that.
Timing will play a huge role here; which is why Israel will continue to be nickle and dimed until its guard is let down. Attrition, baby, is the name of the game. And the Palestinians are playing it masterfully.
So who knows?
Should one take comfort in the psalmist’s fervent wish, “Let the evil ones destroy each other…”?
Can one rely on it?
late news from Syria seems to indicate that unites of the Syrian armed forces, or at least deserters from such forces, are fighting other unites. The fight is in several cities and it is conducted in built up areas, which means a lot of collateral killing. People have been hunged on utility poles or mutilated. A lot of blood to be avanged. It does not look good or nice at all.
The boyfriend dumped her? Clearly the gentleman is blind or gay…or both. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, though.
17 ken in sc
Not entirely true. The Soviets put their IRBMs in Cuba in 1962 because the Kennedy administration had (secretly, they thought) put US Jupiter IRBMs near the U.S. air base at Incirlik. Jupiter was a liquid-fueled forward-deployable/”hard base” IRBM originally developed by the Army; because its range exceeded 200 miles, it was given to the Air Force, who really didn’t want it because it was neither air-launched or silo-based. They put it in Turkey as much to find some use for it in their SIOP as anything else.
Following the Cuban facedown, JFK and Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles, on both sides. The Soviets had their few out of Cuba by January of 1963, ad the last Jupiters were withdrawn from Turkey in the spring of 1965. (Most of them ended up as satellite launchers at the Cape and/or Vandenberg.)
Later on, the agreement was misconstrued (deliberately) by the Democratic party in the U.S. to mean that under no circumstances could any U.S. intermediate range missiles, ballistic or otherwise, be based anywhere in NATO, no matter what Russia or its WARPAC allies did. Which was how we ended up in the Carter years with the Soviets stationing SS-20 road-mobile IRBMs in East Germany, while Carter was busy refusing to even mention it. Reagan’s decision to put Pershing IIs in West Germany showed the USSR that no, cheating would no longer just be “overlooked”. Even on a “treaty” or “agreement” that did not actually exist except in the minds of their friends on Capitol Hill.
What never got mentioned in the original JFK/Khrushchev “understanding” was air-deliverable and artillery-deliverable nuclear weapons; simply because they were too hard to keep track of. JFK, for all his shortcomings, did not trust the Soviets, and knew full well that they certainly had free-fall nukes in the munitions stores of every tactical air unit and artillery unit who could deliver same on target. He refused to agree to a one-sided “drawdown” that he had no way of verifying.(Even today, with satellite reconnaissance, keeping track of such weapons is damned difficult; in the 1960s you might as well have been trying to determine how many angels were dancing on the head of a given pin.)
Which means that B61 “dial-a-yield” thermonuclear gravity bombs (variable from 50 to 500 KT), and similar ordnance, have been in U.S. and NATO tactical stores ever since, including those in Turkey. The fact that Iran is now considered a bigger threat than Russia (by everybody except the AKP and Obama, neither of whom see anybody but Israel and the U.S. as a threat to anybody), just makes their presence more important. Tehran is closer to Incirlik than Moscow is.
cheers
eon
Well eon, it is true that there are nukes in Turkey and I would strongly suspect they are under ultimate US control if for no other reason than Russian-American assurances. The nukes in Cuba were under Soviet control. On several occasions, lightening nearly launched the Jupiters which were delivered to Turkey as per Eisenhower’s 12th hour agreement despite JFK’s expressed objections to the DOD once elected.
There is much buzz about the nuclear relationship between KSA and Pakistan. They have many ways to deliver nukes. J-20s with refueling could threaten Israel and all areas of India. Some suggest Pakistan owes KSA several nukes as per original investment agreement. There are reports that NK is aiming at small nukes that can fit existing missile technology including remote-fired missiles. Iran, which obviously works with NK, is certainly looking for cruise delivery having obtained some Chinese cruise missiles via Belarus several years ago. I believe 12. Their space program is really an ICBM program, but their real threat is simply export of small warheads or HEU warheads Iran will claim were not their creations.
The removal of all nukes from Turkey would indeed worry some Turkish leaders who must know Iran’s intention. If the US retreats how will Putin find Chinese inroads agreeable? Turks read the UN statement on the secret Syrian nuclear facilities and how it admonishes Israel for not simply letting the IAEA handle it. How would that make the present Syrian mess better as serious fighting threatens to break out? As the Pakistan fighter pilot reported above, Turks know Israelis don’t want to reveal their cutting edge, even in games with F-16s.
The AKP is in trouble if there is wholesale revolt in the military. Continued snubs by the EU which knows why Assad is inciting violence on the Golan border will put the Turks in a hard spot. They see where Erdogan’s drift is going and dangers igniting to their South and as Victor points out, their fathers have fought along side the US since Korea (though they refuse to fire upon Muslims (except Kurds). A bit racist, you think?
Assad is in trouble. I still think he won’t manage to kill two thousand before he’s gone. Erdogan is in the corner with Israel the most stable State and the West the better side to fight on.
I suspect scenarios of American disengagement from Turkey (including nukes) has been discussed with Ankara as well as the approaching auctioning of Greek Aegean oil and gas rights. I suspect if Turkey enabled Turks to listen to the international discussion, they would know exactly what their leader should be doing. How religious is Turkish nationalism?
DECISIONS
TO
BE
MADE
M
some good stuff Barry
Forgive my comic relief. I think everyone here including fellow Jews can laugh at this headline.
Weiner done in by his weiner.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-usa-politics-weitre7555ya-20110606,0,6811144.story?track=rss
As a backer of J-Street, Weiner’s mess is a not a net loss for Israel. Spitzer rehabilitated himself. At least this wasn’t about another abused Chamber Maid……
“The nukes in Cuba were under Soviet control.”
What I typically hear from Cuban bloggers is that one of the reason’s the USSR pulled their missiles from Cuba was the fear that they were going to lose control of them – i.e. they realized the Castro regime was actually quite willing (and at least in the case of Guevara of t-shirt fame, eager) to use them.
The more things change…
We want Claire safe; please come home.
True, but the nukes were in Soviet control. I wonder if Islambad thought their nukes would fall into the hands of the Taliban whether they would seek our help in securing them.
I have my suspicions regarding Russian and Chinese security. NK and Iran however are well beyond the mindset of Castro.
But don’t despair, the aliens are close: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTJt0LJZG2k
I really wonder what effect even aliens would have on the religious mindset of the ME…..
What struck me about her comments was the complete absence of looking at domestic politics to explain the AKP. I don’t know a ton about Turkey, but presumably foreign policy makes up only a small part of government decision-making. And yet Ms. Berlinski bases all of her judgement about the government on that front. From one of the “most informed americans” about Turkey, I would want to hear about the impact of the secular legacy, how the transition to state-sanctioned islamism is going, the impacts of the AKP’s economic policies, and a whole host of other, more-important to Turkey issues.
Came to this over RealClear… pals I’m writing thesis at the moment about Turkey, Iran, Sy and Iq econ… I think the best Turkish bet is to let its economy flourish and make the scary of a picture of actually listening to their people.
Mbarak fell ass down some glimpse of a second Erdogan called on him to get out in a indirect and nice. Nobody knows what happened behind the scene, nevertheless the demonstrators called for a march of the millions and the millions never came until Erdogan posted his opinion… suddenly there was a march of many million (summed up Egy).
The real capability is to be able to move the masses, still. Thats the emerging Turkish card in my opinion. Somewhat like kittens, let’s hope the Turkish don’t fall in love…
Well,
Egypt revolution … they call on a march of millions, but its a little less. Then Erdogan posts an opinion about Mbaraks behavior and the millions are there the Friday after.
The Turkish card is moving masses by depicting to be listening to their people. Thats what will bring them a lot of money from elsewhere. Otherwise their bet is to let the economy grow and earn money. Whats wrong with it… Merkel is doing it, Sarcozy is doing it, Blair did it, Bush did it… pals please I think Victor is right.
The only strange thing to happen would be, if Turkey falls in love with its Kittens
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=akp-chp-spat-over-ties-with-israel-deepens-2011-06-06
I don’t think so Sam….
http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=74754
Seeing as Turkey refuses to allow US combat aircraft to be based at Incirlik AB, what would be the point of keeping aircraft delivered (B61) nuke weapons there?
Although there is no confirmation either way (and never has been), it is known that US nuke weapons were withdrawn from two other Turkish locations, for lack of delivery aircraft and unacceptable security, in 1995.
US nuke weapons are generally stored together with their delivery systems.
All US tactical nukes were withdrawn from Greece in 2001. All US tactical nukes were withdrawn from Germany in 2004-5. All US tactical nukes were withdrawn from Britain in 2007-8.
OPEN
SOURCE
ONLY,
R
Anyone claiming to talk about US forward base capability at Incirlik is
1/ Faking
or
2/ Is in serious violation of US law and can expect dire consequences after his/her door is crashed in.
For clarification– this is an American blog, America is concerned with its own national security as the first priority.
We have a contract with our NATO partners that an attack on any one member = an attack on all members–we are a circle of wagons in our mutual defense.
KSA, Israel, Iran, Venezuela etc must have their own home based blogs–fine
Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America
–it appears that Obama now affirms that “Special Relationship”
That is a wise decision on his part.
Victor,
Somehow you neglected to answer a previous question of mine, so here it is again:
If Turkish troops who are training Syrian Security Forces in Syria were to become involved in a confrontation with Israeli military forces, and if that confrontation escalated…is the US required by treaty to back Turkey militarily against Israel?
Followup questions:
Why is the US an ally of such a country which assists the Syrian regime?
Why is Turkey still in NATO?
Istanbul is also a hothouse of corruption. My son’t high school class donated, rather attempted to donate, about $250K of computer equipment and legitimate copies of MS software for schools and hospitals – turkish customs seized it, claiming it had western propaganda on it. When these 17 year olds left, the US State dept was still trying to get the container released so the equipment could go to its destination – of schools and hospitals.
Even if my husbands grandfather hadn’t been an Armenian who fled turkey 100 years ago, after this fiasco, I’d still hold it in contempt.
Victor – “Anyone claiming to talk about US forward base capability at Incirlik is…”
R – …Free to do so in the US. See Amendments, US Constitution. See Terms of Use (below).
Victor – “1/ Faking
or
2/ Is in serious violation of US law and can expect dire consequences after his/her door is crashed in.”
R – John Pike and GlobalSecurity, and the Federation of American Scientists, among many others, are going to be so disappointed, or in for a rude shock, to find out that they’re faking (I disagree often, with both, but I don’t think they’re faking anything), or freedom of speech and the press have both been stomped at the same time.
Victor – “For clarification– this is an American blog, America is concerned with its own national security as the first priority.”
R – (“let me be perfectly clear”). This blog is a one man column with moderated comments, within a larger, privately owned media blog. It’s Terms of Use are available for all to read. The current American (U.S.) government’s primary priority is not national security (although it damn well should be), because the current administration is hellbent on reducing this nations military budget at every opportunity. It has done so constantly since the day it took office and it continues to do so to this very day. Even knowing that said military budget reductions are not nearly enough to effect the national debt or deficit in any positive way. Even knowing that each and every such reduction of the military budget also results in still more jobs lost.
Victor – “We have a contract with our NATO partners that an attack on any one member = an attack on all members–we are a circle of wagons in our mutual defense.”
R – Clearly, obviously, and logically, some NATO partners are more equal then others. If they were all that concerned about needing US help, they wouldn’t be kicking US forces out, would they? It’s just as well, we’re running out of assets at a rapid rate, and the number of wars, cold and hot, worldwide is escalating at a rapid rate.
Victor – “KSA, Israel, Iran, Venezuela etc must have their own home based blogs–fine”
R – There seems to be a glitch in your system there. None of those are NATO nations (doh), and PJMedia is hosted in the US.
Victor – “Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America”
R – What are the first and last words on page 45 of that book?
Victor – “–it appears that Obama now affirms that “Special Relationship”
R – By talking over the Royal Anthem, and causing the Queen Mother herself to tell him to shut up? Or sending back that bust of Winston Churchill?
Victor – “That is a wise decision on his part.”
R – I count just three wise decisions on the Commander-in-Chief’s part thus far.
1: Not allowing the USS Enterprise battle group to be diverted back to Libya from its Arabian Sea destination south of Pakistan, prior to the OBL double-tap event. (not so sure this is even his call, but he is the C-in-C so the credit is his until proven otherwise)
2: Not pulling the plug on the OBL double-tap event before the necessary climax. (again, not sure this was his call, if the rumors of temporary contact lost between DC and Abbotabad are true.)
3: Allowing the USMC to take Helmand.
R – Anything else?
BORINGLY
EASY,
R
Victor: Anyone claiming to talk about US forward base capability at Incirlik is…in serious violation of US law and can expect dire consequences after his/her door is crashed in.
That’s not even in the same time zone as reality.
As I understand the current law, under the Patriot Act–revealing US forward base nuclear capabilities is a Federal crime.
As you were embedded with the US Military, I believe, then you must know those rules.
Any way- good interview on C Span under very difficult background noise, good luck on your trip
View the CNAS discussion on this matter
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/WorldUn
The elephant in the room is the Palestinian Autumn
You are a brave guy to touch the 3rd rail of the I/R issue
Google search terms “US forward base nuclear capabilities” within the last year.
About 13,100,000 results (0.11 seconds)
NEXT,
R
Victor – “Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America”
R – What are the first and last words on page 45 of that book?
WELL?,
R
Victor: As you were embedded with the US Military, I believe, then you must know those rules.
You obviously have no idea what the military embed rules are, and rather than fantasize about how the Patriot Act nullifies the First Amendment (it doesn’t), it’s best you move on to a different topic.
Forget Istanbul, Claire! Come back to the US. I am sipping seven kennels your way right now. Schenker truck and mover going your way too.
If the Turkish leadership is as (dangerously) clueless as Ms. Berlinski concludes, analysis of Turkey today from the bottom up would seem more fruitful, or at least as interesting; what opposition voices, if any, resonate with enough of the population to influence future elections? Who has—and doesn’t have—media access?
Rashad and Maxtrue raised points that I would like to understand better, namely the purely domestic issues involved in Turkish policies and the role of rejection for EU membership. I have read about the internal migration of the rural, religious, and poorly educated to secular Istanbul and the failure to assimilate these people into the Western oriented Istanbul. Did the possibilty of immigration of these groups into the EU, primarily Germany, act as a pressure valve to keep domestic tensions down? Was the rejection of full EU membership for Turkey something that fed the fantasies Claire describes? Given the number of Turks in Germany and their close ties to home (the number of poor families with satellite dishes that give access to Turkish TV is amazing), I suspect that Turks are much more aware of European attitudes toward them and the world than they are of NATO. Didn’t Schröder/Chirac have some input on the Turkish position on Iraq?
These questions are based on my pickups from German media. I do not claim to be an authority on Turkish events, but I do think the issues should be weighed in any analysis.
“For clarification– this is an American blog”
Not when Victor the Turkish propagandist is posting.
“America is concerned with its own national security as the first priority”
And Victor is concerned with pimping his fellow Turkish Islamists, except when he is indulging his genocidal antisemitic fantasies.
“That’s not even in the same time zone as reality.”
At what point, exactly, has Victor ever been in the same galaxy as reality, let alone the same time zone, planet or solar system?
“this is an American blog”
Wrong again, Victor. Or have you not read the postings from Canadians, Latin Americans, Arabs, Israelis and Europeans? You fool and impress no one here, Victor.
vb, I hear you. My only insight into Turkey comes from Turks I know in NYC. They tend to be Liberal and secular. From their point of view the majority of Turks still respect the military, the wall between State and religion and a strong alliance with America. Some regret voting for Erdogan as they were fooled by his singular mantra of economy. Now they understand the reservations of Europe, first with the military coup in the 80s and presently the Islamic turn of Erdogan. Most never believed their President would be cosy to Assad and Ahamdinejad which they regard as a serious slap in NATO’s face. Many explained to me how Erdogan channels Turkey’s secular nationalism into a religious sentiment directed against Israel and those in the West who won’t support illiberal Democracy. They also warn of increased involvement with China and a terrible decision to destroy the relationship with Israel. Despite Victor’s emphasis on economy, the worst of Erdogan has little to do with economics and much to do with his fantasy of the importance of Turkey in mediating the region. He can’t mediate his own press freedoms and widens the military trials in an effort to break the secular aim of the Turkish military and their perennial relationship with Israel and those forces aligned against Assad and Iran.
I would like to know more about the street level in Turkey. I posted a link above about the Turkish protest over water due to crazy ideas about hydroelectrical fantasies. Most Turks here say Press Freedom in Turkey doesn’t come close to the US. They feel the courts have been influenced by political leadership.
Here Victor, Erdogan at work with Syria, so where is all the blame going regarding Golan? Do friends do this to America? This has set off a political fight in Turkey with many Turks accusing Erdogan of working to destroy decades of good relations.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4079393,00.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/06/us-turkey-election-economist-idUSTRE7553O520110606
hxxp://www.eurasiareview.com/turkey-the-sisyphus-of-europe-analysis-07062011/
Too easy Render……
And Victor, chew on this:http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4078305,00.html (you talk before thinking)
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/report-14-palestinians-shot-dead-in-syrian-refugee-camp-1.366496
and this is interesting: hxxp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43306543/ns/world_news/ On wonder at what point gays and lesbians will reject any administration that doesn’t take a hard line against human rights violations and clerical rulings making gays and lesbians subject to punishment and death……..
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4078305,00.html
Render, Victor’s library is SO large it might take days for him to find the book…lol
Some last links: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hwqT-yr84p9euYrqtXMXgGgjPxqA?docId=6b2c975588914430a1cf6e8710c626f4
Assad is in deep trouble and we will see what Iran and Turkey do. Perhaps in the weeks to come we’ll learn of the activity that took place June 1 under the new moon. For now, Iran better be careful their subs don’t visit the cold bottom of the Red Sea.
FULL
COURT
PRESS
M
http://www.dodbuzz.com/2011/06/06/should-the-u-s-welcome-a-smaller-global-presence/ We produced the same 25% of the world’s goods under Clinton, a fact many forget. The inroads to Western production by India and China have come at the expense of Japan and Europe.
hxxp://www.thememriblog.org/turkey/blog_personal/en/38233.htm
Yeah, right…..
17. ken in sc
“The US withdrew all nuclear weapons from Turkey during the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
And put some bombs back later.
21. eon
“Reagan’s decision to put Pershing IIs in West Germany showed the USSR that no, cheating would no longer just be “overlooked”.”
Also, the Pershing are very accurate which would have allow the US to immediately contain the Soviet thrust into the west, and destroy their C3I bunkers as well. The Soviets used and expanded Hitler’s bunkers system in Berlin to create interlinked command nodes with buried communications treating physician prevent intercept. They could have given the order to mobilize and we would not have known until they were on top of us. The Pershings could have been used to stop the tank advance and destroy their command bunkers.
From what I heard, the Turkish military has no aircraft capable of using the B61s stored in Turkey. That could change if the F-35 ever gets delivered.
We can still worry that some of Edrogan’s thugs will make one disappear and it will end up in the back of a van in DC.
23. Maxtrue
Weiner is not Jewish as his mother is not a Jewess.
Very interesting.We see the problems of Turkey in their real perspective of its backwardness for centuries.Turkey`s problems are comparable with Russians` and it`s so ridiculouse for EU to invite her in. The idiotic liberal idea that racial equality means the cultural one drive the “democracy” projects which are ended with the blood-baths.
Claire, will you marry me? I love cats, and Istambul too…
Jay
“Weiner was born in Brooklyn, New York, to Mort, a neighborhood lawyer, and Fran, a mathematics teacher at Midwood High School.[3][4] He has two brothers, Seth (d. 2000)[5] and Jason. The family lived for a time in the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn. Weiner was raised Jewish: he told Moment Magazine in 2011, “We weren’t a very religious household, but we had a very strong sense of our Judaism.”[6]” Wiki
Actually Reagan considered MRRs to reduce infrastructure damage and long term lethal radiation to civilians confining deadly effects to the drivers of Soviet tanks. A Jew certainly pioneered that technology and now the Pakistanis and Indians simulate MRR designs on computers using their data from their last tests. Faced with our neutron bomb which Carter cancelled, the Soviets made their tanks protected against initial short-lived radiation burst.
“U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey
Turkey has hosted U.S. nuclear weapons since intermediate-range Jupiter missiles were deployed there in 1961 as a result of decisions made at the alliance’s 1957 Paris summit. Those missiles were withdrawn in 1963 in the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis. Since then, no nuclear missiles have been stationed in Turkey. The only nuclear weapons that have been deployed are the bombs that would be delivered by U.S. F-16s or Turkish F-100, F-104, and F-4 “Phantom” aircraft at air bases in Eskisehir, Malatya (Erhac), Ankara (Akinci/Murted), and Balikesir.[12] All such weapons, whether on U.S. or Turkish aircraft, have been under the custody of the U.S. Air Force.
Turkey still hosts these U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, albeit in much smaller numbers.[13] They are limited to one location, the Incirlik base near Adana on the eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey.[14] All other nuclear weapons have been withdrawn from the bases mentioned above.[15] Moreover, the Turkish air force no longer has any operational link with the remaining tactical nuclear weapons deployed at Incirlik.[16] F-104s have not been in service since 1994. F-4s are still in service after modernization of some 54 of them by Israeli Aerospace Industries in 1997. Yet, only the F-16 “Fighting Falcons” of the Turkish air force participate in NATO`s nuclear strike exercises known as “Steadfast Noon,” during which crews are trained in loading, unloading, and employing B61 tactical nuclear weapons.[17] The Turkish aircraft in these exercises serve as a non-nuclear air defense escort rather than a nuclear strike force.[18]
There were two main reasons for Turkey to host U.S. nuclear weapons. First and foremost has been the deterrent value of these weapons against the threat posed by the nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities of its enormous neighbor, the Soviet Union, during the Cold War. Similarly, after the Cold War, these weapons were believed by Turkish military commanders to constitute a credible deterrent against rival neighbors in the Middle East, such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria, which used to have unconventional weapons capabilities as well as delivery vehicles such as ballistic missiles.[19]
A second reason for Turkey to host U.S. nuclear weapons has been the burden-sharing principle within the alliance. Turkey has strongly subscribed to this principle since it joined NATO in 1952. In fact, Turkey had already displayed unequivocally its willingness to share the burden of defending the interests of the Western alliance by committing a significant number of troops to the Korean War in 1950, even before NATO membership was in sight.
Yet, if Turkey is likely to be left as the only country, or one of only two countries, where U.S. nuclear weapons will still be deployed after a possible withdrawal of these weapons from other allies and no other NATO country will be willing to assume the burden of hosting nuclear weapons, Turkey may very well insist that the weapons be sent back to the United States. From Turkey’s current standpoint, this would not be the desired outcome of the current deliberations within the alliance.
According to a Turkish official, the principle of burden sharing should not be diluted. To live up to their commitment to solidarity, which was reaffirmed in Tallinn, the five countries that currently host these weapons should continue to do so for the foreseeable future, the official said.[20]
Deterrence Against Whom?
Because of the view that NATO’s deterrent will be more credible with the presence of forward-deployed U.S. nuclear weapons in the allied territories in Europe, Turkish diplomats believe that the burden of hosting these weapons should continue to be shared collectively among five allies, as has been the case over the last several decades.
Even if all of Turkey’s allies accept this proposal and act accordingly, Turkey will still face a dilemma in its foreign and security policies if it sees the hosting of U.S. nuclear weapons as the only way for it to fulfill its burden-sharing obligations.
Ankara’s continuing support for the presence of the U.S. weapons on Turkish territory could be justified only if there were a threat from the military capabilities of Turkey’s neighbors, the two most significant of which would be Iran and Syria, and if the Western allies shared that threat assessment. There can be no other meaningful scenario that would justify Turkey’s policy of retaining U.S. nuclear weapons on its territory as well as leaving the door open for the deployment of U.S. missile defenses in Turkey in the future. Recent trends, however, appear to be moving from such a threat assessment by Turkey. Over the last few years, Turkey has experienced an unprecedented rapprochement with its Middle Eastern neighbors.
Last year, Turkey held joint ministerial cabinet meetings with Iraq in October and Syria in December. Until recently, Turkey had treated both countries as foes rather than friends. These meetings have produced a significant number of protocols, memoranda of understanding, and other documents on a wide array of issue areas including the thorniest subjects, such as ways and means of dealing with terrorism effectively and using the region’s scarce water resources more equitably.
Moreover, these high-level meetings resulted in the lifting of the visa requirement for Turkish citizens traveling to Syria and vice versa. That action has paved the way to an opening of the borders between the two countries; the borders had stayed closed for decades due to the presence of large numbers of heavy land mines on both sides. The mines will soon be cleaned up with a view to opening huge land areas to agriculture.
In addition to improvements in bilateral relations with its immediate neighbors, Turkey has become more involved in wider Middle Eastern political affairs than it ever has been since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923. A key part of this regional involvement is mediation efforts between Israel and Syria. Another element is a willingness to take on a similar role in Iran’s dispute with the international community over the nature and scope of Tehran’s nuclear program, which is generally considered by Turkey’s NATO allies to have the potential for weaponization and thus further proliferation in the region. Top Turkish political and military officials have suggested on various occasions that the most promising way out of the conflict in the longer term would be the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East. Against that background, the continued insistence of the Turkish security elite on hosting U.S. nuclear weapons has drawn criticism from Turkey’s Middle Eastern neighbors.[21]
Some of these neighbors, such as Iran and Syria, criticize Turkey’s policy of retaining nuclear weapons because they see the weapons as being directed against them.[22] Others in the Arab world, such as Egypt, portray these weapons as a symbol of Western imperialism.
Turkey therefore will have to seriously reconsider its policy on U.S. nuclear weapons. For this to happen, a debate should take place in the country in various platforms, in closed as well as open forums, with the participation of experts, scholars, officials, and other concerned citizens.
There is a common belief in Turkey that the U.S. weapons constitute a credible deterrent against threats such as Iran’s nuclear program and the possible further proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region in response to Tehran’s program. Others contend that if Turkey sends the weapons back to the United States and Iran subsequently develops nuclear weapons, Turkey will have to develop its own such weapons. These observers argue that even though they are against the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons on Turkish soil in principle, the weapons’ presence in the country will keep Turkey away from such adventurous policies.[23] Similar views have also been expressed by foreign experts and analysts who are concerned about Turkey’s possible reactions to the developments in Iran’s nuclear capabilities in case U.S. nuclear weapons are withdrawn from Turkish territory.[24]
The negative effects of the weapons deployments on Turkish-Iranian relations need to be assessed as well. Some Iranian security analysts even argue that the deployment of the weapons on Turkish territory makes Turkey a “nuclear-weapon state.”[25] There is, therefore, the possibility that the presence of the weapons could actually spur Iranian nuclear weapons efforts. This issue may well be exploited by the Iranian leadership to justify the country’s continuing investments in more ambitious nuclear capabilities.
Conclusion
A key question for NATO’s new Strategic Concept is whether burden sharing will continue to be construed as it has had for many decades, as suggested by Turkey, or whether it will be altered in response to the combined negative stance of some western European allies regarding the forward deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons.
This situation could lead to a divisive and unnecessary controversy between Turkey and its long-standing allies in the West. By insisting that the weapons remain on European territory, Turkey would not only alienate some of its Western allies that truly want to move the weapons out of their territories, but also create tension in its relations with its neighbors and newly emerging partners in the Middle East.
On May 17, Turkey signed a joint declaration with Brazil and Iran, providing for the safe storage of Iran’s 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium fuel in Turkey in return for the delivery by France, Russia, the United States, and the International Atomic Energy Agency of 120 kilograms of fuel needed for the Tehran Research Reactor.[26] This “nuclear fuel swap” is potentially a breakthrough in the long-standing deadlock in Iran’s relations with the West over Tehran’s nuclear program. There is no question that the degree of trust that Turkey has built with Iran, especially over the last several years with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey, had a significant impact on getting this result.
Iran has so far adamantly refused all other offers. Hence, the Iranian political and security elites who have been closely interacting with their Turkish counterparts at every level over the past several months and years prior to the fuel swap announcement may raise their expectations in turn. They may press for withdrawal from Turkey of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which they fear may be used against them, as a way for Turkey to prove its sincerity regarding its stance toward Iran and, more broadly, its commitment to creating a nuclear-weapon-free Middle East.
Turkey clearly has to tread carefully, but the risks should not be overstated.
One concern might be the contingencies in which the security situation in Turkey’s neighborhood deteriorates, thereby necessitating the active presence of an effective deterrent against the aggressor(s). Yet, given the elaborate capabilities that exist within the alliance and the solidarity principle so far effectively upheld by the allies, extending deterrence against Turkey’s rivals should not be a problem. Turkey would continue to be protected against potential aggressors by the nuclear guarantees of its allies France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the three NATO nuclear-weapon states. Turkey’s reliance on such a “credible” deterrent, which will not be permanently stationed on Turkish territory, is less likely to be criticized by its Middle Eastern neighbors[27] and should not engender a burden-sharing controversy with its European allies.
One cannot argue that once U.S. nuclear weapons that are stationed in Turkish territory are sent back, the nuclear deterrent of the alliance extended to Turkey will be lost forever.
Currently, three NATO members are nuclear-weapon states. Of the NATO non-nuclear-weapon states, only five, as mentioned above, are known to host U.S. nuclear weapons. The remaining 20 members have no nuclear weapons on their territories. Yet, these members enjoy the credible nuclear deterrent of NATO, which remains the most powerful military organization in the world. Hence, the simple outcome of this analysis is that, for NATO members to feel confident against the threats posed to their national security, they do not have to deploy U.S. nuclear weapons on their territory.[28] Turkey need not be an exception to this rule.
Mustafa Kibaroglu teaches courses on arms control and disarmament in the Department of International Relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey. He has held fellowships at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.” http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_06/Kibaroglu
What do you care about American interests when you are a Turk working for Turkish Islamists, Victor? How much are you getting paid to whitewash Turkish support for the bloody Assad regime of Syria?
IT’S
A
LIVING
E
Jay – “Weiner is not Jewish as his mother is not a Jewess.”
R – You do not have the right to decide who is Jewish and who is not.
===
I find it extremely difficult to believe that the Iranian navy has a sub capable of reaching the Red Sea and operating there for any length of time. None of their three Kilo class subs are operational, at all. Two, plainly visible in GoogleEarth imagery, remain tied up at Bandar Abbas, as a permanent power stations. They haven’t moved in years (2002-2010). The third remains in a Russian shipyard, undergoing one of the longest re-fittings in submarine history.
This leaves the Iranian Navy with its fleet of problem plagued mini-subs. The 150 ton Ghadir class have the longest known range (around 1,500 miles) but would require a very obvious surface tender ship in support. The Ghadir class is a crude copy of a North Korean mini-sub, which itself is a crude copy of a Yugoslavian mini-sub, with all that that entails for quality control.
File this away as more of the usual Iranian bluffing.
YUGO,
R
#54:
“A key part of this regional involvement is mediation efforts between Israel and Syria.”
So, at that fence over the weekend…
“There is no question that the degree of trust that Turkey has built with Iran,…”
NO
QUESTION.
DOUBTERS
BE
GONE.
@ 36. Michael J. Totten
“That’s not even in the same time zone as reality.”
Lol…priceless!
Aha! I see that some of you have been seduced by Catwoman! Well, by her picture, anyway. (Don’t feel bad – Bruce Wayne fell into her trap, too.)
Claire is also one of the major bloggers at ricochet.com. I enjoy her posts. If you are not familiar with it, give the site a visit: http://ricochet.com/
—-
Of course, Victor is the real expert on Turkey. And on parallel universes, too. Did you know that Victor writes the screenplay for “Fringe”?
Yes Claire is a beautiful lady….and so is Weiner’s wife (note a Muslim (who works for Hillary) married to a Jew)….
Thanks Render for the info…
Paul, I didn’t say I agreed with the entire article posted above about Turkey and nukes. It is a year old and I would have far more serious problems with Turkey’s behavior than the writer of the article.
The way I see it Turkey is between a rock and a hard place, especially now that there is a crack in the Syrian military.
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/158675/20110607/iran-taliban-afghanistan.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2011/jun/07/lady-gaga-born-this-way-banned-lebanon
Israel’s Herons fly in the Luftwaffa hxxp://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3ae950c570-ef3a-4b6c-8cad-4b710bfb9812&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDestuftwaffa:
@ 59. Dikehopper
Actually I no special expertize re Turkey
The only interests I have in Turkey are
1/ It a US ally and a long-term NATO member
2/ It was able to turn successfully turn around a basket case economy into a thriving economy with a GDP growth of 7% year over year.
3/ Its graduate schools in Science, Engineering, Medicine and Business are world class
3/ It is Muslim country with a secular constitutional government
4/ Together with Indonesia Turkey proved a good model for developing Muslim countries and their relationship with America.
54. Maxtrue provided an incisive and thoughtful analysis of the nuclear issue viv a vis Turkey and a link to Mustafa Kibaroglu—thanks for that
American interest is moving east– rapidly to the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea–
This was the major topic at lasts weeks conference by The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), Risk and Reward: American Security in an Age of Uncertainty,
http://www.cnas.org/node/6465
It had leading Military, Pentagon, DoD, NSA participants people who deal with and live the sharp edge as well, War College academics, economists and FP experts.
All agreed that the fulcrum of American interest has shifted east from the ME, and that the new NATO strategy defined in Lisbon last November is core to American interests moving forward.
Render, I think the danger is that Iran’s Qaaem class sub (I haven’t heard of it completing sea worthiness tests) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qaaem_class_submarine can launch these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-800_Oniks
I believe it has significant range. Does it have the ability to lay mines or sensors, fire HOOT 2 or whatever? Russia is selling Syria the missiles above (despite the events in Syria?) and perhaps the Iranians plan to dock in Syria and “borrow” the missiles. They are set on developing supersonic torpedoes.
As an aside Render, here is where NK is going with a counter to our Blue Navy. hxxp://covertshores.blogspot.com/2010/06/north-korean-semi-submersible-craft.html Its the missles and the semi-stealth when taken to a better level.
They are working with Iran on the same sort of semi-submersible, stealthy attack boat (not the ones made in Europe). Of course rejecting similar conceptual suggestion made during the American LCS debate about future capabilities in this area, the French have come up with a solution that poses problems for major Large Navies. See those 16 missiles tubes in the Ares picture below? Not much early warning under the new moon and choppy seas…..
hxxp://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3a3933fceb-1f6c-4584-a57b-35b5bab3fd86&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
Victor, perhaps we “share” a vision of where we would like to see Turkey go. I would accept that as I don’t think you are a rabid ME extremist bent on Sharia law and violence.
I have serious problems with the simplified context and data supplied in the arms control article, but there are some essential facts we likely agree on. I posted it as a general primer. Since the article was written numerous disturbing facts regarding Turkey has emerged, some of which Erdogan is under pressure for NOW. He accuses opposition attacks as “Israeli designs” yet you never comment on that bullshit.
The difference today is the dangerous turn Erdogan has taken and the new trajectory Turkey has moved towards. The region has seriously escalating problems which Erdogan is necessarily tied to. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Armenia, Lebanon. surely the Valley of Wolves which you have never denounced. You also failed to answer Render’s question. First and last word on page 45, I believe…..
While we (the US) focuses at times on Pakistan and India, the key element for NATO and the US is Med energy and Gulf oil as well as security threats of Iran and Pakistan that exceed the threat of NK. Please don’t ignore the fires in Africa. We don’t obsess in foreign policy on the Far East because the entire region encircling China’s shores is furious over NK and the new military strength of China suspected to be ready to enforce absurd territorial claims. China is surrounded by critics and a dangerous friend. The pollution is growing lethal and the water is running out as the Chinese try to steal rain water with rocket fire.
The gravest threat beyond the ME exploding is Africa given energy and natural resources plus poverty and extremism. The problem of China is an entirely different creature requiring economic resurgence on our part and continued advocacy for freedom.
So your constant shift in context towards the East is bizarre. In fact, leaving China aside, if you hold high hopes for Turkey so dearly, you would be terribly upset about the game of poker Erdogan is playing. You would see the Russians a necessary counter to China as well as the critical Western role with Russia of eradicating terrorism before it possesses the means to cause us serious harm. I think you lack serious realism about the world despite your fall back on economic data and projections which you know run on the cost per kilowatt and stability of consumer society.
As for Israel Victor, who rebuilt Turkey’s F-4s? And are there tracking chips in Israeli F-16s? I would think you would be angry at Erdogan’s manipulation of religious sentiment at the expense of a fruitful relationship. You should stand up for the Economist, yes?
You project sentiment all the time Victor in your omissions, though I don’t think you care to be be aware of it…….
You blew by Claire though you possess a personal relationship. Her words go right past you……
Africa is a potential human disaster–but it is not a threat to America.
Africa needs to adopt western norms re finance and governance.
KSA, UAE, Kuwait etc are buying or leasing huge tracts of land in Africa to grow food for their populations–they import vast numbers of sheep from NZ and Australia–why?
1/ Food prices are escalating and will continue to escalate.
2/ They do not have enough water to develop domestic agriculture economically.
As Abu Muqawama said recently
“Any young scholar who wants to do policy-relevant work on Israel or the Palestinians needs their head examined.
In the discourse, at least, you’re either a gun-toting, jack-booted Zionist pig or an Islamist suicide-bombing anti-Semite. And sometimes both at the same time.
No thanks.
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/05/why-blog-avoids-israel-and-palestinians.html
In my view trade and economic development are what is important– not ideology
Here is The Economists view of I/P
” So far Binyamin Netanyahu has baulked at a full withdrawal from the occupied territories along 1967 lines. He recently responded coolly to French proposals for a peace summit.
But with Sunday’s tensions all centered on Israeli-occupied territories, the argument that borders are most defensible when they are internationally recognised is mounting.
While protests raged in areas which Israel still occupies (not only the Golan, but also the West Bank and East Jerusalem), there was quiet in those from which it has withdrawn: Lebanon and Gaza.
The self-proclaimed Islamic “resistance” forces dominating both territories, Hizbollah and Hamas, paid lip service to the protests, but firmly kept their supporters away.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/06/israels-borders
The crunch will come with the “Palestinian Autumn” –that will be the game changer
Americas best interest is to stay out of these foreign entanglements
Last one tonight Victor unless Render has an update on subs….
First, Sunday’s tensions involved Palestinians and Syrians who later fought with there own leadership (see my link way above) over their use as tools for Assad. Many died from land mines which Michael discussed some time back. This is a good example. There was muted criticism of Israel because everyone except you and those you disassociate with understand what Assad is trying to do. Its not about Israeli occupation of Golan but the tyranny of Assad. Sadat got his land back didn’t he? Even the Turkish Press remarks that activists can go to Egypt and cross legally into Gaza.
The Economist was tough on Erdogan who responded by calling them Israeli propagandists. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/06/us-turkey-election-economist-idUSTRE7553O520110606
The Palestinian Autumn Victor? Please tell us what will happen? Hamas will overrun the border and take over Israel? Hizb’Allah will start a war? And what about the Syrian Autumn or what will happen when the STL is read aloud? What about the Libyan Autumn? Perhaps you should worry about the threats to Turkey. What will happen when the US leaves Iraq? What will happen if Syrian armies fight each other?
Hizb’Allah stayed away from the Israeli border under intense pressure by Lebanese leadership and Israeli guns. Hamas had its crossing closed by Egypt also under heavy pressure. A huge split is forming between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei as China makes overtures to Pakistan and continues to help Iran, Sudan, Qaddafi and Assad.
Last, what do you mean quiet from Gaza and Lebanon? Are you seriously suggesting the absence of Israeli troops has improved these places are made them “liberated”? Lebanon has been highjacked by Hizb’Allah and Gaza is a sad dangerous place run by thugs far worse than your imaginations of Israelis.
There is a whole world Victor between Bin Laden and Kahane. Now I don’t know what you mean by pig though that’s what Arabs call Jews. And Jack-Boot implies Nazi? Are you serious? Though everyone understands what you mean by a bomb-throwing suicide Islamist antisemite.
At some point Victor, you’ll have to pick a side between the latter and the center. If you were SO American, you probably are aware of the reaction on the Hill for Netanyahu and he’s not the greatest Statesman. He is however, no Jack-booted Zionist pig which you would have us believe despite my disagreements with his approach.
I would like to know what you think YOUR input here accomplishes as topics of the ME are discussed. I think your handlers embedded you in the wrong blog, but hey, its America……
Sorry Michael for exceeding reasonable bandwidth use…..
I’ll take a break.
The quote
“Any young scholar who wants to do policy-relevant work on Israel or the Palestinians needs their head examined.
In the discourse, at least, you’re either a gun-toting, jack-booted Zionist pig or an Islamist suicide-bombing anti-Semite. And sometimes both at the same time.
No thanks.”
Is from Andrew Exum
Andrew Exum is a former US Army officer, an American scholar of the Middle East and a Fellow of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
He also participated in General Stanley McChrystal’s review of the American strategy in Afghanistan.
His view on I/P reflects that of the new generation of American Military leaders.
Max, I never assume you or others necessarily agree with things you tell us about. You have the demeanor and persistence to sift through stuff my blood pressure would tell me to avoid. You search and we sort and decide. I extracted those quotes because they seemed to strengthen Claire Berlinski’s view.
Victor: His view on I/P reflects that of the new generation of American Military leaders
Andrew speaks for himself, Victor, as do you. As do I, for that matter.
Viktor,
You are such a tiresome prig.
You think that there is wisdom by association.
It’s not true!
There is wisdom by knowledge, common sense, fair analysis, not lying to yourself or others, not picking and choosing your facts to support your hypothesis and ignoring those that don’t; not mistaking opinion for facts and not trying to be someone or something you’re not.
Sadly, Viktor, you are totally bereft of wisdom.
@ 70. yesjb
Thank you for sharing with us–and continue
Anyway–the CNAS conference declares American Interests moving forward
Max – Ghadir class mounts two single shot 553mm tubes designed for the 2300kg Type 53-65 torpedo. I don’t think, and rather doubt, that those tubes are capable of handling the weight and firing/launching stresses of either the 2700kg Hoot/VA-111 Shkval super-cavitation torpedo, or the 3,000kg P-800 missile. And I think we can safely bet that the Iranian mini-subs don’t have the electronics capability for either weapon. Although with Russian based technology and a good sized hammer, anything is possible.
===
Victor – “Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America”
R – What are the first and last words on page 45 of that book?
…and that’s just sad…
===
PATHOLOGICAL,
R
Victor, I commented on those words YOU delivered. As for your use of the quote, my reply stands. If Exum originally said those words as you did, I would say the same thing to him. Again, rather than address a specific question, one regarding the Economist’s view on Turkey’s election, you talked about the Economist’s mentioning the Palestinian Autumn. You use Exum as a shield for answering direct questions pretending tough questions are really attempts to dichotomize the world into Exum’s polarities of Nazi Jews v suicidal Muslim racists? Wow..
So instead of the BS ( and you can talk for yourself, yes?) perhaps you can weigh in on this: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=end-of-the-8216muslim-democracy8217-baloney-2011-06-07
As far as speaking for yourself, let’s be clear you don’t answer questions, frame and omit in your intentional way ignoring Muslim atrocities and national security threats focusing on the illegitimacy of Israel and elevating the topic like dark matter.
Exum isn’t God and McChyrstal is teaching. The two wars we have been fighting are about to see significant reductions at a critical juncture. Neither war can be called a success, though neither is lost as yet. I would love to bet you on the outcomes in both places, what Iran’s next move is v what Panetta and Patraeus sign off on to deal with all this as Obama reduces the military budget and deployments. You speak for the “new American generation of military leadership” as though the foreign policy we were discussing is now conducted by the DOD? I will let Render expand on Exum. Fnord went there too.
How can one show little moral interest in the very subjects Michael writes about. The friggin topic was Ottoman Fantasies, not Victor’s fantasies.
I might digress, but I don’t mock the subject of the post nor a journalist you say you’ve had coffee with…..
Was that with Exum too?
Victor you remind me of when George refuses to tell his wife’s parents he really has no mansion in Long Island, not even when he drives with them to Long Island to see it……
Good Night, and yeah Paul, thanks…..
Yeah Render but its the new 1000 ton Q class. Any word on that being a part of this boast by a man who today said Iran’s nuclear program is “a train without breaks or reverse”?
I’ll open source it and of course the question is “help”.
No doubt Ahmadinejad didn’t like the delivery of two new Dolphins for Israel.
NITE
M
Max –
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-07/iran-submarines-in-red-sea-to-spot-naval-vessels-fars-says-2-.html
As all of the Kilo’s can be accounted for (within open source limitations) and the single Qaaem 1,000 ton class has yet to finished, laid down, or tested (AFAIK only a very small scale model has been seen), that leaves the Ghadir class (as many as ten in service, four confirmed), or the single confirmed 400 ton Nahang class.
That’s a USMC Colonel being quoted in the above link. That’ll do…
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2007/12/observing-iranian-submarines.html
The above link (2007) is, AFAIK, the last time multiple Iranian Kilo’s have been reported at sea at the same time.
Those, or a, IRGC Navy mini-sub may very well be in the Red Sea (per a Marine). But if they are, they are not there for any potential offensive weapons load out, or to scout “foreign military ships”, or to “map the Red Sea floor.”
None of those are in the design parameters of those mini-subs. They are best suited to small scale smuggling and swimmer support vehicles. Their offensive weapons are limited to just two torpedo’s or two mines, and no reloads.
Who, and/or what, would Iran wish to put ashore without anybody knowing it, and on which side of the Red Sea? (presuming Yemen but…)
===
Victor – “Andrew Exum is a former US Army officer, an American scholar of the Middle East and a Fellow of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He also participated in General Stanley McChrystal’s review of the American strategy in Afghanistan.”
R – You cut and pasted those two lines, word for word, from Andrew’s Wikipage. Could you possibly be any more obvious?
Victor – “Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America”
R – What are the first and last words on page 45 of that book?
WHO
ARE
YOU?,
R(black sabbath version)
While the intricate details of complex international relationship are interesting, as appears to me—until the Iranian limitations to military capability are somewhat removed—plainly, Iran will not wish to be an active war-time aggressor; and this to say again that, very much as preceded WWI, various nations—of sorts, or even, tribal collectives—will simply strive as they might to situate themselves as surrounded by piles of weapons—new to them, and untested—and with available man-power who may be possessed of but slight interest in peaceful pursuits and then, the entanglements will immediately unravel in war—and which, though of pain and death for too many, still and all, will work out to be seen as supportive of an ultimate good for all societies concerned, . . .
“there was quiet in those from which it has withdrawn: Lebanon and Gaza”
You mean Gaza, which is run by your Hamas fellatees whose founding prinicpal is the murder of all Jews, and from which a rocket attack against an Israeli school bus was launched? Once again Victor proves he can find no gratification until every Jew in the world is dead. He gets particular, heavy-breathing satsifaction from the murder of Jewish children.
“Actually I no special expertize re Turkey
The only interests I have in Turkey are”
… that Victor is a Turk and the Turks are paying him to troll Michael’s blog. By the way, Michael, this loathesome degenerate scumbag who you call “polite” just accused one of your best commenters of treason. What more does he have to do to get banned?
Just a remark about the present government’s Ottoman dreams:
It is rather the CHP (Ataturk’s Republican People’s Party – the main opposition party) which possesses whatever remains of the Ottoman experience in the surrounding region ( the Balkans and the Middle East) thanks to its Union and Progress Party roots which practically ruled from 1908 until the replacement of the Empire by the Republic in 1923. Whereas the AKP has no roots in government at all and its power base comes from recently civilized and urbanized rural conservative crowds who managed to take control first in municipalities about 20 years ago and then ended up governing the country only about 10 years ago.
Their electoral success does certainly not make them experts in foreign policy or provide them with the past experience of the Ottoman bureaucracy to which they are definitely alien for reasons explained above.
Barry Rubin has a short blog post on Turkey:
“Turkey’s Regime: Openly Antisemitic, Allied with Iran, Anti-American…And Glorified in the Western Media”
http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/06/turkeys-regime-openly-antisemitic-allied-with-iran-anti-american-and-glorified-in-the-western-media/
Victor – What did you mean by your comment #75? http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2011/06/06/bad-for-the-jews/
Dikehopper: He obviously didn’t respond to the Vicktor Frankl reference which posits men as either decent or indecent, something lost in the Exum quote. Victor knows better than to accuse Michael of that Jewish PR BS directly and instead suggests that Render should be watching his front door for mentioning (as did I) the likely nukes at Turkey’s forward base for NATO strategic deterrence.
Of course, Victor didn’t respond to the Economist article. Nor will he this: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/turkish_democracy_stumbles_forward_FOhHAf7W6iAyWFbwEMBeoM
Nor this: http://www.hudson-ny.org/2180/turkish-flotilla
Thanks Render. Lock that front door.
hxxp://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4079563,00.html
SINK
THEM
M
Victor wrote
1. “But with Sunday’s tensions all centered on Israeli-occupied territories, the argument that borders are most defensible when they are internationally recognised is mounting”. It is an un-truth
Historical Fact. Most wars start when armies, or armed forces, cross well recognized international borders or shoot across them (USA -Iraq? USA- Afganistan? UK- Argentina ? Iraq -Iran ? Iraq -Kuwit, all Israeli wars? etc). Borders are defended, guarded and protected by armed forces in one way or another. There is no other way and never was. No paper is a permanent substitute, for ever, to a fence and a gun.
2. “While protests raged in areas which Israel still occupies (not only the Golan, but also the West Bank and East Jerusalem), there was quiet in those from which it has withdrawn: Lebanon and Gaza”. It is an un-truth
There was an absolute quiet on the borders of Egypt and Jordan which signed a peace treaty with Israel. The quiet in Gaza and Lebanon, the most vocifeous anti Israel “countries” on the border of Israel is because their leaders learned what a modern war can do. Nazralla have said that much. By the way, somebody tried to “do things” on the Lebanon border last week. These who tried to cut the border fence are now playing with 70 virgins. The others got the idea. On the same day the border fence was cut on the Syrian border, the IDF failed, the lesson was not taught. These who died few days later have paid for the IDF mistakes. Armies sould not make mistakes when it comes to crossing, by force, a recognized border. One of the armies who is very keen on that is the Turkish army and we all should copy them in that.
Both saying make no sense at all, not even a little bit, too much beer? ganja?.
Well spotted DH, well spotted…
===
“75. Victor
We had not realized until now that that PMJ is a Hasbara activist site
How about some truth in advertising and activism?”
R – “We?” Who is this we that Victor speaks of in that comment? Speaking of truth in activism that is…
Noting that Victor seems to enjoy quoting from some of Exum’s worst moments…
CNAS president Dr. John Nagle writes about US nuclear weapons on a regular basis and CNAS non-resident fellow Phillip Bleek writes about US nuclear weapons as a matter of his job title and degree. Exum favorite Jason Sigger also writes about US nuclear weapons on a regular basis.
I expect any such knock would come to their front doors long before it reaches mine. They all, including Exum, have or have had access to classified subject material that I do not and never will.
How many regulars here remember Victor’s very first comments here? In which he demanded that I be banned, while proving that he knew modern Turkish slang?
===
Victor – “Claire Berlinski wrote a great book about Thatcher and the ” Special Relationship” between the UK and America”
R – What are the first and last words on page 45 of that book?
R – How could one know if a book is great if one has not read, or even owned a copy of said book?
R – Times up Vickie. I’ll save you the trouble of ordering a copy of something you won’t believe or even read, the answer to my question that you’ve refused to answer is “carousel” and “men.” You got caught in yet another blatant and obvious lie.
All Jew-haters lie blatantly, obviously, and pathologically, whether they are thinly veiled or not. Call it a tell…
O
JERUSALEM,
R
I am about to post several pieces (miscellaneous subjects) about Turkey. Most are things I have previously saved for one reason or another. There are many links so it will probably go through the moderation process, which sometimes takes hours.
The following is for what it’s worth to anyone.
First, a WSJ op-ed on Erdogan and the Economist editorial that I think it was Max that referred to. To get to it, you will have to Google “Mahathir on the Bosphorus” I think it is the second entry that will bring you to the full op-ed.
A Michael Rubin piece titled, “Turkey’s Prime Minister: The Jews Are Out to Get Me!” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/06/07/turkey%E2%80%99s-prime-minister-the-jews-are-out-to-get-me/ “They cannot make any decisions concerning Turkey,” Erdoğan said. “This international media, as they are supported by Israel, would not be happy with the continuation of the AKP government” Huh?
Hudson New York cites various articles from the Turkish press: “Turkish Crackdown on Critics of Islamist Government Widens” http://www.hudson-ny.org/1949/turkish-crackdown-on-critics-of-islamist
Reporters Without Borders ranks Turkey 138th on its freedom of the press index: http://en.rsf.org/press-freedom-index-2010,1034.html
Turkey has not only refused to join the trade sanctions against Iran, it plans, in fact, to triple its trade with Iran: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=gul-iranian-policy-biggest-obstacle-to-strengthen-economic-ties-2011-02-14
Turkey: Showing Them Who’s the Boss by Claire Berlinski: http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Turkey-Showing-Them-Who-s-the-Boss
An anecdote that nonetheless helps illustrate the corruption of the Turkish government: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/turkish-tragedy-4138 and
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/democracy-turkey-4857
The Turkish people have a very unfavorable view of the American people: http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=2&country=224&response=Unfavorable You can also click “Favorable” above the chart.
If I were a Turkish politician (or simply Turkish), then this would deeply worry me:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gebze
——– excerpt starts —————–
Gebze (ancient names: Dakibyza and Libyssa) is an industrial city in Kocaeli Province, Turkey. Situated 30 miles east of Istanbul on the northern shore of the Sea of Marmara, it is the largest district of Kocaeli; Gebze has experienced rapid growth in recent years- from 159,116 in 1990, to 282,444 in 2009. Gebze accounts for 15% of Turkish industrial production.
——– excerpt ends —————–
So let’s see: Around 300k people account for 15% of the country’s industrial output. Turkey’s population is over 70 million. Allowing for agriculture and service, what is the rest doing?
Vilmos
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=turkey&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wl
Hey guys. Please don’t have Michael kick (Victor) I so love the beat-down you guys give him after everyone of this stupid comments. (-:
Enjoy the popcorn with me.
Interesting article, Michael! Five years is a long time! Since I’ve never been to Turkey and the only Turk I ever knew was Jewish (which I’m guessing doesn’t count) it’s good to get the impressions of an outsider who has lived there so long.
Claire: He’s an American photojournalist, and he’d made Istanbul his base because it was a convenient flight from all the places gonzo photojournalists like to go. (Insert your favorite geographic “East meets West, crossroads of civilization” cliché here.)
That cliche is centuries out of date! You have to travel quite far indeed to the east of that “crossroad” before you get to the next advanced civilization, and that’s been true for quite a while. If it was really an important crossroads between civilizations, photojournalists would have little interest in it. What photojournalists and other thrill seekers like about such places is they’re right next door to some seriously UN-civilized locations.
Claire: They are zealots, perhaps, but not quite in the way their critics are imagining. They’re zealots of delusional optimism and overconfidence.
I’ll buy that for a dollar. They make threats against the United States as casually as if they were having a mundane dinner conversation. I normally associate such grandiosity with individual personalities, not with governments. I think such political immaturity puts them in the minor leagues. It’s impossible for me to take any government that behaves in that towards an alleged ally seriously.
Anyway… I’ve always tried to watch what people do rather than listen to what they say. In the case of Turkey I don’t like either their words or their actions. I want my country, the United States, to come up with a new policy towards Turkey. At the very least. And if I had my way Turkey would be dis-invited from NATO and the US would find alternatives to the military bases we’ve got in Turkey, and the nukes there would be dismantled. Turkey’s strategic value became negligible when the Cold War ended. And, by the way, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Turkey started veering off towards its Islamic neighbors right when the USSR collapsed, either.
Craig: the only Turk I ever knew was Jewish (which I’m guessing doesn’t count)
I know an Israeli from Turkey, and she’s as Turkish as the Israeli Russians are Russian–which is to say, very. So I think maybe that counts.
On another track. If the land lord of this blog go to Israel and there orgenize a talk about his book some money can be made that way. Could MJT think about that?
#90 – “I normally associate such grandiosity with individual personalities, not with governments. I think such political immaturity puts them in the minor leagues. It’s impossible for me to take any government that behaves in that towards an alleged ally seriously.”
L’Etat c’est moi? I can think of at least one very prominent American politician who shows a similar (lack of) character. While they may not deserve to be taken seriously, the consequences of them attaining power have been no joke.
Fascinating interview!
Michael, slightly OT but if you’re coming here to Israel, you might want to interview Ben-Dror Yemini (Wikipedia entry here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben-Dror_Yemini – there’s a link to English translations of his articles at the bottom), who has a regular op-ed column and blog at Maariv, Israel’s second largest Hebrew daily. I know you’ve interviewed Kerstein, but Yemini is a native Israeli of Yemenite extraction and writes to the natives, so to speak.
Another up-and-coming journalist/blogger at Maariv is Kalman Libeskind. He’s younger and more right-wing than Yemini (I would classify the former as center-left) and recently spearheaded the campaign to remove Yoav Galant as candidate for the Israeli Chief of Staff.
I would say these two are by far the best writers in the Hebrew press.
Here’s the original article from the WSJ about Erdogan suing everyone who criticizes him:
Call the Prime Minister a Turkey, Get Sued
What a creepy, whining little sissy boy. No wonder he has to pay off tools like Victor to shill for him. Hey Victor, can you get Erdogan to sue me now? I’d wear it as a badge of honor.
The word “hasbara” in reference to Israel means “explanation” or, probably more accurately, “public relations.” Opponents of Israel usually use it as an insult directed at supporters of Israel.
That’s why I asked Victor the question in my comment #81 above. (The answer to my question appears to be obvious.)
Dikehopper, waiting on those links……
Iran’s moving four bombs worth of uranium to Fordo to enrich it further. Obama doesn’t have the option to wait until after the election. Russia opposed to IAEA reprimand of Syrian nuclear program. Well, they’re losing clients in Syria and Libya.
Gary- http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2011/06/08/turkish-prime-minister-loses-lawsuit-against-students/?mod=google_news_blog
Max – my post with the links about Turkey was held up by the moderator for a few hours. It was then inserted according to the time I originally submitted it. It is now comment #86. Easy to miss.
@ 97. Dikehopper
Here is my point about the current Lieberman blog based hasbara campaign.
Many foreign nations engage in PR/hasbara/propaganda.
China sets up Confucius Institutes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confucius_Institute
Which have been widely criticized.
Others are much less contentious such as the German Goethe Institutes-the French Alliances Francaises or– the Spanish Cervantes Institutes.
Last year FM Lieberman launched a massive $multi-million web based campaign targeting bloggs and social media sites in the USA, as part of a hasbara/PR/propaganda campaign.
All well and good — except it sometimes goes way over the top and backfires.
One of the hasbara/propaganda themes that has backfired big time is this formula-
“Any criticism of the current Bibi/Lieberman regime = Antisemitism = Holocaust denial = Hate Speech = Hate Crime.”
Such extremist hasbara themes essentially shut down all debate– as Andrew Exum pointed out in his comment
“Any young scholar who wants to do policy-relevant work on Israel or the Palestinians needs their head examined.
In the discourse, at least, you’re either a gun-toting, jack-booted Zionist pig or an Islamist suicide-bombing anti-Semite. And sometimes both at the same time. No thanks.”
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/05/why-blog-avoids-israel-and-palestinians.html
So he now avoids discussion of the I/P issue on his blog.
Smart hasabara is fine, extremist hasbara is counterproductive — even when preaching to the choir.
I try to read all of Rick Richman’s posts on various sites but I missed this one, titled “Portraits of the Peace Process in Its 92nd Year”: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/01/20/portraits-of-the-peace-process-in-its-92nd-year/
He points out the many times that the Palestinians have rejected Palestinian statehood.
It is one of those “bottom line” looks that Richman is very good at. It’s why I place the fault, the burden, of lack of peace between Israel and the Palestinians *completely* on the shoulders of the Palestinians.
(I caught the above at a post at Richman’s blog: http://jpundit.typepad.com/jci/2011/06/seeking-a-state-to-permit-war-by-other-means.html )
—-
An amusing side note. One of the Palestinian rejections of statehood that Richman refers to in the year 2000 was the “Clinton Parameters.” In an email exchange with me Richman noted:
After the Camp David talks collapsed in July, the new Palestinian terror war commenced in September, and Dennis Ross worked secretly for three months to try to come up with what he thought was the maximum each side could offer and the minimum each side could accept. These became the Clinton Parameters, offered not as a U.S. proposal but as Clinton’s personal attempt to bridge gaps and reach a peace agreement in his last month in office. Israel formally accepted them in a Cabinet vote, and the Palestinians (according to Ross’s book) rejected them in a face-to-face meeting with Clinton in the Oval Office on January 2, 2001, after being personally warned by Ross that this was the best offer they would ever see.
Heh, I remember that before this, Arafat had visited the Clinton White House more than any other foreign leader. And, apparently, had built a personal relationship with Bill Clinton. After Arafat rejected the Clinton Parameters, Clinton was livid, absolutely furious with him. Clinton not only barred him from visiting the White House again, but even refused to take phone calls from him.
Victor: Since you fail to answer direct questions and ignore statements coming from leadership (see Turkey, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Hamas, Hizb’Allah, Egypt, Pakistan etc.) while focusing on YOUR view of “extremist hasbara”, I shall ignore you except for pointing out blatant lies.
http://defensetech.org/2011/06/08/russia-joins-nato-counter-terror-exercise-for-first-time/
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/144816
vindication over Flotilla misinformation from Turkey, Hamas and Iran…….
I suppose when Iran tests a nuke, Victor will suggest its just another wild claim by hasbara. Is it in America’s Fundamental Interests to see Iran with nukes?
TRUTH
SHALL
SET
YOU
FREE
M
And it is here Dikehopper, that Obama should have begun. The limits and map were basically formulated by Clinton. I suspect Hillary advocated picking the administration approach up where her husband left off. She was over-ruled. Power who called her a monster and Malley, fired for meeting with Hamas were given new roles for the WH.
This is why I said the Obama administration made an intentional mistake in their approach to peace.
Vickie – Nobody reading here cares what you claim is “your” point. You’ve already repeatedly exposed yourself as a pathological liar with an unhealthy obsession against Israel.
All nations, including the US, engage in PR. All. Al-Qaeda and its Muslim Brotherhood allies do PR as well, so does HizbAllah and HAMAS.
When individuals, such as commentors on Exum’s moderated blog, make statements that can only be described as open hatred of Jews (which happens in every single one of Exum’s posts on Israel), it is an indictment of both the individuals and the moderator. It doesn’t matter whether or not the COIN mafia is right or wrong (they are wrong, it’s not an insurgency, it’s a war, and it’s not a small war, it’s a world war). It matters only that there is but one single excuse for the focus on Israel. And we all already know what that excuse is. The same is true for the Guardian and Wired among many other media outlets.
Exum is a coward on this issue because every single time he brings it up, the Jew haters expose themselves and dominate his comment section. And Exum leaves those comments to stand unopposed.
So…
Who is “we”? Who are you speaking for Victor?
=
Nobody is paying me to do this. Not the Israeli’s, not the US government, nor any other nation, no private citizen of any nation, not even a penny in donation. Not one.
I do this because I am Jewish. I do this because I will not go willingly or quietly to the cattle cars.
I do this because I see people like Victor bringing those cattle cars back to the siding. And I read people like Exum ignoring those cattle cars, or making excuses for them.
I do this because my father taught me to recognize the enemy and he taught me how to fight back.
TOOTH
AND
NAIL,
R
He points out the many times that the Palestinians have rejected Palestinian statehood.
Dikehopper, the Palestinians do not want a state. They DO NOT want a state. They want Israel gone, and their supposed quest for a state (i.e., “justice”) is the way to do it.
…that Obama should have begun
Max, there’s no beginning and no ending.
Except the destruction of Israel.
The “Peace” process is a Trojan Horse, a most clever and devious method whose sole desired outcome is the destruction of the Zionist Entity.
At this point in time (as at all points before), anyone that professes a desire for “Peace” with the Palestinians, according to the current situation and agenda, is advocating the destruction of Israel.
That goes for Israelis, Jews, and all those who profess support for the Jewish State.
Alas, unfortunately—it matters not. That is the situation.
#100 Victor –
What does Avigdor Lieberman and the program he heads have to do with Roger L. Simon’s blog post? It was personal, about bad news about prominent Jews, not about Israel. http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2011/06/06/bad-for-the-jews/
In spite of that, you wrote, “Last year FM Lieberman launched a massive $multi-million web based campaign targeting bloggs and social media sites in the USA, as part of a hasbara/PR/propaganda campaign.”
And you wrote, ““Any criticism of the current Bibi/Lieberman regime = Antisemitism = Holocaust denial = Hate Speech = Hate Crime.””
Roger L. Simon also wrote the following post titled, “Clueless Israel wakes up on PR (sort of)”: http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/01/31/clueless-israel-wakes-up-on-pr-sort-of/ He criticizes Israel. He also makes it clear, I believe, that he is no fan of Lieberman. He points out that the amount of money allocated to the P.R. program is quite small. And he seems to point out that the P.R. program does not include the United States.
It seems that you built straw men to argue with, or something similar to that.
You are right that there are *some* people who throw around the term “anti-Semitism” too loosely (just as there are some who throw around the word “racist” too loosely). In the past, I’ve been called a self-hating Jew, an anti-Semite, under the influence of the Palestinians, and so on. But I also realize that these types of people are very few in number.
So sometimes I just grit my teeth and ignore it. And sometimes I make it very clear why they are wrong. I’ve suggested to you before that you do the same – clarify your views on Israel and Jews in general. That is, if Gary, Render and others are wrong about you, give us some evidence that they are wrong. It’s way, way past time, Victor.
———-
This is the second time I have ignored my own advice about largely ignoring Victor. I wonder if my old room is still available at the mental hospital.
Another Barry Rubin post on Turkey, “U.S. Government Cheers As Turkey May Go Islamist and Anti-American”: http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/09/u-s-government-cheers-as-turkey-may-go-islamist-and-anti-american/
106. Dikehopper
My view about Jews is that there are saints and sinners among them– just as there are among other ethnic groups, Irish, Italian etc.
In the West Jews have made a disproportionate contribution in the Arts, Sciences and Medicine–in relation to the relative size of the Jewish population.
My view about Israel is that it should have defined secure borders based upon the 1967 boundaries, any deviations from those should be mutually agreed upon by the Palestinians.
Hopefully after that and in light of the ” Arab Spring ” Israel and its neighbors will have a thriving commercial/trade relationship—much as it once had with Turkey.
Israel has a sound economy and it should pay its own way, America should end the $ Billion of payments we currently provide.
In terms of the current Lieberman/Bibi regime in Israel, I think they are on the wrong side of history and that their policies and action will lead to Israel being completely isolated fairly soon.
That will be a great shame–but it is up to Israeli voters to change that.
Ironically there is a much more robust and forthright debate about the Lieberman/ Bibi policies within the Israeli press and media than within the US press and media.
As General Petreaus made clear– some of those policies are harming American interest in the region.
The fulcrum of American foreign policy interests is rapidly moving out of the ME and towards the East
–the US strategic focus has moved on.
#108 Victor – that was a good post! I’ll get back to you tomorrow or the next day.
Victor: The fulcrum of American foreign policy interests is rapidly moving out of the ME and towards the East
WINDS
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E
Render: I do this because my father taught me to recognize the enemy and he taught me how to fight back.
BAD
HOME
SCHOOLING
E
Yeah, moved to Fordo and the Red Sea…..
Can’t wait for the Hizzie version….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE-Zx90I6Bs&feature=player_embedded#at=71
No, its better to pretend about enemies and learn not to fight back?
Yes, that’s the ticket….
http://www.youtube.com/user/HOKAONEONE sorry this was video….
Golan’s a nice perch….
They’re zealots of delusional optimism and overconfidence. They have sincerely convinced themselves that they will be able to befriend Iran, dissuade it from going nuclear, and profit greatly from this relationship in the process.
Remind you of anyone we know, say, circa 2009? At least our leaders learn, albeit slowly.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/183987.html According to Iran, the IAEA has no right to be concerned about the proliferation/WMD group of Iran-North Korea-Syria. The Israelis and Americans are delusional. Isn’t this all so transparently simple? Iran is stepping up their enrichment in Fordo mountain. The only non-nuclear weapon I know of via open sources (barring a ground mission) is a kinetic weapon.
Meanwhile Iran is pressing for some “agreement” with Egypt already meddling in the Red Sea and Sinai. Their military helps Assad and continues to supply Hizb’Allah. They seek to spread terror: http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=224399 Their latest sub is suited for special ops and mine/sensor laying. In their minds the Mullahs must hope help from China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan and even Westerners seeking profits can help them create credible threats from largely indigenous sources.
The stakes are large for Homs and Qoms…. their fate is linked, their people hostages to what comes…
This will get uglier..
Or as Hillary said today, “this will not end well”….
Render,
http://images.defensetech.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/seashadow1.jpg And that was how many years ago?
The size of the barge?
Edgar,
Can you do anything besides snark?
EVER?
d
http://www.thememriblog.org/blog_personal/en/print38186.htm
I guess this is revenge for Freud Paul…
http://www.thememriblog.org/turkey/blog_personal/en/38273.htm
And Victor bitches about Lieberman…Gees….
oh man… Poor old Sea Shadow. So much promise…
Given the crudeness displayed by the current Iranian mini-subs, I think something like the Hughes Mining Barge, even scaled down, might be just a bit beyond their current industrial ship-building capacity.
Be interesting to know if any of the civilian pattern support ships for the Iranian surface unit in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden region have well-decks or ro-ro ability.
===
By all indications it would strongly appear that my home schooling by a Screaming Eagle was considerably better then most public schooling.
ALWAYS
HAVE A
PLAN,
R
Your funny, I’m sure we’ve bettered the 1985 stealth that likely helped retrieved a Soviet nuke (wasn’t that the story?) You might not think that by observing the progress of the Littoral ships.
As for Turkey boasting it is the only country in the world that can teach Israel to be normal, Iran would disagree. It has a new normal for Israel: http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5355.htm#_edn1
“My view about Jews”
is that you heartily approve of Hamas firing rockets at Israeli school buses, which he describes as “quiet” and hence desirable. In other words, for Victor the only good Jew is a dead Jew, especially if they are children.
Gotta agree with Render about Andrew Exum, Victor. I’ve got a lot of issues with the doctrine he promotes for the US military but that’s mostly just difference of opinion. But when it comes to Israel I think he’s got some kind of personal problem. I haven’t even read his blog in a couple of years but I can clearly recall a couple posts he made that seemed like he was deliberately opening up the discussion to Israel-bashing. And then when the predictable bashing started, he sat back and watched the show. Out buddy fnord was front and center in those threads and I’ve considered him a bigot ever since. If he’s running that kind of dog & pony show on his blog (and he is) you don’t get to trot him out and use him as an impartial authority on Israel/Palestine.
As far as Exum himself, I don’t know what his deal is but I find it a bit troublesome when a military expert who works at a prestigious think-tank seems to be hostile towards US allies and friendly towards US enemies (see his comments about Taliban, Hezbollah, etc). American military analysts are not SUPPOSED TO BE impartial. And even if they were, that’s not the behavior of an impartial individual anyway. It’s the behavior of somebody who is playing favorites and has picked the wrong side.
DH, if you don’t mind…
===
Victor – “My view about Jews is that there are saints and sinners among them– just as there are among other ethnic groups, Irish, Italian etc.”
R – How very enlightened and magnanimous of you. I expect we’ll have to accept that at face value?
Victor – “In the West Jews have made a disproportionate contribution in the Arts, Sciences and Medicine–in relation to the relative size of the Jewish population.”
R – Nice of you to notice. Have you seen our Medal of Honor collection? Some of us are pretty good at sports as well…
Victor – “My view about Israel is that it should have defined secure borders based upon the 1967 boundaries, any deviations from those should be mutually agreed upon by the Palestinians.”
R – Israel is not giving up Jerusalem, or the Golan Heights. The Palestinians aren’t going to agree to give up anything ever. They never have before and they are not offering now.
Victor – “Hopefully after that and in light of the ” Arab Spring ” Israel and its neighbors will have a thriving commercial/trade relationship—much as it once had with Turkey.”
R – We heard “hopefully after that” before the Gaza Strip, and we heard it before south Lebanon, and we heard it before the Sinai. You don’t really think we’re going to believe it the fourth time, do you? Have you looked closely at the Arab Spring under the harsh light of reality lately? There are no flowers.
Victor – “Israel has a sound economy and it should pay its own way, America should end the $ Billion of payments we currently provide.”
R – Then why all the constant attempts at the economic boycotting of Israeli products? How is that not a contradiction to “pay your own way”? Israel has always paid its own way, unlike many of the nations that have received money from the US over the last seven decades. Why not cut off Muslim Brotherhood/Army controlled Egypt and terrorist supporting Pakistan first? Why not cut off the Palestinians, who cannot seem to stop themselves from trying to kill Jews?
Victor – “In terms of the current Lieberman/Bibi regime in Israel, I think they are on the wrong side of history and that their policies and action will lead to Israel being completely isolated fairly soon.”
R – Democracy’s do not have “regimes” because a democracy is a regime in and of itself. Your opinion of the Netanyahu coalition government is meaningless, especially in that Israel has been isolated before and survived just fine.
Victor – “That will be a great shame–but it is up to Israeli voters to change that.”
R – A great shame to whom? The mere fact that Israeli’s vote on a regular basis puts the lie to any such negative usage of the word “regime” in relation to Israeli democracy. Do we see such regular voting in any of the Arab Spring nations?
Victor – “Ironically there is a much more robust and forthright debate about the Lieberman/ Bibi policies within the Israeli press and media than within the US press and media.”
R – There is nothing ironic about that at all. US press and media are, for what must be the most obvious of reasons, rightfully focused on US policies first.
Victor – “As General Petreaus made clear– some of those policies are harming American interest in the region.”
R – And that would be yet another of your long running lies (courtesy of FP’s Mark Perry). General Petraeus made it extremely clear that that was not the intention, nor the finding, of CENTCOM or himself. Would you like the links thrust in your face yet again?
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2010/03/18/a-lie-david-petraeus-anti-israel/
http://spectator.org/archives/2010/03/25/petraeus-sets-the-record-strai#
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/03/petraeus-pushes-back-statements-on-israel-were-false-.html
Victor – “The fulcrum of American foreign policy interests is rapidly moving out of the ME and towards the East”
R – Yeah, sure. Then why there are currently US military assets operating in warlike conditions in both Libya and Yemen?
Victor – “–the US strategic focus has moved on.”
R – The US strategic focus is global and has been since 1919. That’s because and why we’re a superpower, and nobody else is.
R – Now how about you run along and ask FP’s Mark Perry why he bald faced lied to you?
GREAT
WHITE
FLEET,
R
Good point Craig. As far as NATO/Lisbon BS from Victor, news flash: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/10/nato-dismal-future-pentagon-chief
Let’s update. Now NATO says Qaddafi is a legitimate target though Russia furious at the pounding of Tripoli refuses to let pass resolutions on Assad who masses to kill more Syrians. Women in Jordan protest Assad as more stream into Turkey to avoid death.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304259304576375743249011516.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Erdogan the dictator….
And in a note about how America is leaving the ME to focus on the Far East…lol. Vietnam in engaged today in a live fire exercise at sea. They like others that form a circle around the China Sea are furious at the apparent strategy of China to muscle its claims. Despite the repeated talking points of Victor the real threat beyond the dangerous NK, spans from Pakistan to Tripoli to Tripoli in Libya and South to Sudan and Somalia. So two claims, that NATO is healthy and effective as well as the focus of NATO and the US has moved to the Far East is BS.
And here is a blow to Obama ideology: hxxp://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/07/report-poverty-does-not-breed-extremism/?hpt=wo_r1
I usually disagree with this guy, but he does make a point that refutes Democratic thinking. Poverty, as we see, has lead to an Arab Spring, not an increase in the ranks of AQ….
P.S. Lang makes Exum a lover of Israeli by comparison. As we see, Exum’s often troubling remarks gives wind to the fantasies of people like Victor and heightens the concern from our more committed allies….
In terms of the current Lieberman/Bibi regime in Israel, I think they are on the wrong side of history and that their policies and action will lead to Israel being completely isolated fairly soon.
Hello!! Hello?? Anybody home?? (That’s a rhetorical question…in case you’re wondering.) Israel has been isolated since the second intifada “broke out”. Let’s see, when did that happen? Let’s call it end-of-September 2000, October 2000. (Can you remember that far back?).
Do you remember that kid who was supposedly shot by those demonic Israelis? What was his name? Mohamed al-Dura?? You know, the kid who was “riddled” by Israeli bullets? That was a pretty cool scam (because old Mohamed didn’t die, at least not by Israeli bullets). But effective? Whooooweee, effective as all get out. Got himself plastered on more TVs, newspapers, and magazine than Michael Jackson after his 40th nose job.
So you want demonization? You want isolation? Well, that’s where it started. Mohamed and his pal, Charles (“M. Verite,” himself) Enderlin.
Or maybe you want to consider that prize-winning political “cartoon” (from 2003) on the cover of the Indpendent showing Ariel Sharon devouring Palestinian babies? A real prize winner that one. (Maybe Bashir al-Assad should take note about how it’s done!!—But he has no cause for worry. Nobody gives a flying leap for Syrian kids, do they?…)
And you talk about “Lieberman/Bibi” isolating Israel?
Do you know how absolutely pathetic you are?
Ho ho!! But we’re not finished yet:
That will be a great shame–but it is up to Israeli voters to change that.
You speak of shame? You? No one who consistently tells the whoppers you tell, over and over and over again, ad nauseum, could possibly know what shame is.
(By the way, how’s Old General Petraeus doin’? And Echelon? Is it working like it ought to? Oh, and while we’re at it, how are those American interests going?)
But that’s not my point here. The point is that since the second intifada “broke out” at the end of 2000, Israeli voters have voted for Ariel Sharon, and then for Ehud Olmert and then for Netanyahu. (And before Sharon, they voted for Ehud Barak, and before that they voted for Netanyahu, who beat Shimon Peres after Peres had become caretaker prime minister following Rabin’s murder in 1995.)
Which makes how many prime ministers? For the “Israeli voter” to elect?
But, curiously, the “Lieberman/Bibi regime” (which idiot phrasing says everything that anyone might want to know about you) is no closer to peace—and no further away from it—than any of its predecessors.
No closer. Not an inch. Not a millimeter closer.
“Lieberman/Bibi’s” fault, right?
File under: “Tell me lies, tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/10/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110610
Gates delivers a tough good bye to NATO while Assad uses the military to kill more and possibly in Libya too. This is story I have seen before: http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_libya0257_03_10.asp
hxxp://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/06/05/syria.videos/index.html Assad assumes our media is extremely stupid. Well, not all and not at all times. Theater is a key element to our enemy’s tools along with blatant lies and exploiting whatever anti-Israeli or anti-US sentiment they can manipulate.
Unfortunately, Claire’s take on the psychological tendencies of Turkish leadership is inflaming the situation and turning the rather pro-West Turks against Western interests. Turkey’s FM has made clear the role he thinks Turkey has exclusively to “teach” Israel and assert Turkey’s dominant power in the region.
Erdogan is blind to the caricature he is creating of himself including shades of Hitler’s twisted blovation. He might not be as rabid or stupid, but I’m waiting for the mustache to shorten and another defense of illiberal Democracy to follow the aftermath of winning another term….
Economic indicators and the social forecast in the region present serious problems. The imbalances and internal tension is vastly under-reported due to the media control of the Turkish State.: hxxp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/10/us-turkey-elections-democracy-idUSTRE75936Q20110610
“….Claire’s take of the psychological tendencies of Turkish leadership SHOWS US it is inflaming”…….”
sorry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiGjxxytLy8
I couldn’t find a dubbed-into-Turkish version. I’ll keep looking.
One sitting in moderation.
THE
LINK
MONSTER,
R
http://ivarfjeld.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/israeli-military-information-on-hezbollah-p1-normal.gif
Given a retaliatory response of a few warheads per target, how many strikes will occur in what period of time? Even targeting the public map of Hizzie positions, will be called disproportionate force as NATO bombs Tripoli and Assad has some guns pointed at the other Tripoli…..
Against this reality we have Palestinian fantasies to add to the Turks: http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/06/the-golan-heights-zionism-and-resistance/
Later all
Max,
I just love the way the Palestinians and their running dogs throw around the term “illegal”. They just expect everyone to take their word for it without any real justification. And it applies generally and everywhere. One might as well just say “illegal Jews”.
How can one ever hope to deal with people like these…”no compromise, we’re always right and you’re always wrong, you have no rights and we consider the entire mandatory Palestine as ours”.
Ironically, if Muslims ran the entire mandatory area, it would just be one giant shithole. And we don’t have far to look to see that.
BTW you might like this interesting bit of speculation:
http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2011/06/is-the-us-deliberately-harming.php
Render:
“I do this because I am Jewish. I do this because I will not go willingly or quietly to the cattle cars.
I do this because I see people like Victor bringing those cattle cars back to the siding. And I read people like Exum ignoring those cattle cars, or making excuses for them.
I do this because my father taught me to recognize the enemy and he taught me how to fight back.”
Thank you, R. Wish there were more of us like you.
Agreed Scott. You’re right Yesjb.
Here’s a BBC view on Turkey’s elections… http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/06/10/turkey.elections.secularism/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dokhi-fassihian/stop-using-iranian-women-_b_875059.html Yet Huffington Post was opposed to even sanctions under Bush. Maybe its the change in management.
Another Big Brother project from 2008: hxxp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/privacy/privacy_pia_st_fast.pdf I guess Napolitano prefers this over screening Muslim men younger than 35 which she called “illogical”.
Well, Yesjb there may be other reasons why the State Department outted Ofer. It might have drawn attention away from covert operations had not the covert effort been revealed by mostly Israeli sources. The US also distanced itself from Stuxnet. Israel has a lot of info that the US would not like made public. I’m not so sure the situation is as dire as Glick makes it. We shall see as Iran begins the next stage of developing nuclear weapons. Neither the US or Israel reported the recent long range missile tests of Iran.
No matter the reasoning, the signals here are terrible. I think worse Obama moves involved the handling of Mubarak, allowing the Kharg to transit, the hypocrisy of NATO operations in Libya compared to criticism of Israeli operations. Qaddafi is now a “legal” target, but Israeli enemies are not?
In the face of very public criticism of Erdogan, some posted here at MJT, rumor has it he is preparing to send troops into Syria to establish a safe zone for Syrians fleeing brutality. The irony is huge. Interesting that when diplomacy fails even Erdogan considers force which may well start a war with Assad. Ironic also is that Assad is supposedly secular.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8569383/Syria-Turkey-condemns-violence-as-Assads-helicopters-open-fire.html
These are the Turkey’s “friends” while Erdogan has been able to sour much of Turkish opinion towards the US. Let’s see how the “dominant power” in the region fares against almost 4000 Syrian tanks. Of course to do nothing, leaves Erdogan in a far more dangerous position….
Maybe Assad will empower the Kurds to attack Turkey much they way he uses Palestinians to attack Israel.
Well said Render. Just read that response……
You know, the exotic hardware I mention from kinetic weapons to the stealthy SMX-25 http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/8252/dcnssmx25020910.jpg submersible frigate, to ultra high drones and DEW weapons is that to a large extent because I think these are the very slingshots and trumpets Israel
is going to need if the Status Quo continues…..
I assume it is a constraint of cash, but is it also a conceptual problem. If Glick is right, then there is the potential for a strategic break between the US military and the IDF. That is, if Glick is correct in her characterization of Obama.
Now if the reports are true that Turkey is mobilizing its military near Jisr (following the Syrian assault) http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/map-of-syria/article2054544/?from=2056786 I wonder what side Victor will pick in a war……
And Assad has chemical weapons. I guess the Turks feel they have “nukes”.
And couldn’t Erdogan count on Israel to apply the appropriate pressure on Syria’s Southern exposure? 4500 + tanks and yet captured Hizb’Allah fighters caught scouting in Jisr revealed the Syrian army is in a thousand fragments though defectors have mostly been killed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/norway-decides-to-withdraw-fighter-jets-from-libya-operation-by-aug-1/2011/06/10/AGlYwbOH_story.html?hpid=z1
Well, that’s because a rich country like Norway doesn’t want to spend the money which is exactly what Gates said. So Libson is past Victor and NATO has a long way to go to live up to your dreams……
#124 Render – Don’t mind at all. I am needing to spend a lot of time away from home.
I’m glad to see that you included links that clarify what Petraeus actually said.
Everyone else – I am guessing that Render’s #124 response to Victor was inserted due to waiting for the moderator? If so, it would be easy to miss his post.
I invited Victor to state his views on a two subjects (Jews in general and the right of Israel to exist) because I though he might be being attacked unfairly on them. I think I was right. I still think he is more of a space cadet, from an alternate universe, than evil.
But looking at a couple of his posts since then, well, he might as well walk around with a sign on his back that says “Kick Me”. No sympathy from me.
—–
By the way, I place Caroline Glick in the same credibility category as Debka and Victor. Go back over the years and see just how accurate she turned out to be. I did that once.
Dikehopper,
With respect, I have to disagree with you about Caroline Glick.
I have met her and have heard her speak. She is extremely well informed and most of here pieces are commentary rather than prediction. Whether this particular piece is accurate, a trial balloon or just wrong is hard to know (for me).
But she is way above Debka in reliability… and Viktor?? Viktor’s comments are based on Wikipedia, ignorance, malice, bigotry and as malignant attempt to influence people with comments that MAY contain a grain of truth. His credibility is zero!