I haven’t published much since my book tour started last month, so now that I have time to write again I’m putting all my energy into a long dispatch that I think you’re going to like. It’s Memorial Day, though, and I don’t want to leave you with nothing, so I’m going to steal part of a post from Walter Russell Mead, who thinks this is an excellent day to point out that we did, in fact, win the war in Iraq.
Iraq will always be Iraq, and the country could fall apart again, but the wars against Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party regime and the various radical Islamist terror militias is over. Who would have thought a few years ago that Iraq would be stable while the rest of the region is boiling?
Here’s Mead:
To celebrate a momentous victory in Iraq is not to acknowledge that President Bush was right to go into Iraq when and how he did; it is not to justify or excuse the years of poor choices and strategic fumbling before the President found the generals who knew how to win. (One can say the same thing, of course, about President Lincoln. Like most great leaders, he failed his way to triumph.) I supported the invasion because I believed Colin Powell’s solemn assurances about weapons of mass destruction; I continued to support the war despite the absence of such weapons and the chaos and incompetence attending the occupation because I believed that vital issues were at stake in Iraq, that defeat was unacceptable, that victory was not nearly as unattainable as the hand wringing, pseudo-smart choruses of despairing ex-hawks so cluelessly and insistently asserted, and that if nothing else we had a duty to the Iraqis and to ourselves not to leave the country without giving it a fair chance to shape the future for itself.
Because of President Bush’s steadfastness, because of the military genius of General Petraeus (or Betray Us as the keen wits and intellects at Moveon.org so memorably called him as, to their frustration and fury, the evidence of victory began to appear) and his associates, because of the professionalism and honor of American officers, and above all because of the dogged courage, patriotism and humanity of the extraordinary men and women who served in the ranks, we won the war.
That victory was much more than a dignified escape from a sticky predicament. The coalition victory in Iraq was a historical turning point that may well turn out to be comparable to the cannonade of Valmy. It changed the course of world history. We have not done justice to those who gave their lives in Iraq until we recognize the full dimensions of their achievement.
The story of Iraq has yet to be told. It is too politically sensitive for the intelligentsia to handle just yet; passions need to cool before the professors and the pundits who worked themselves into paroxysms of hatred and disdain for the Bush administration can come to grips with how wrongheaded they’ve been. It took decades for the intelligentsia to face the possibility that the cretinous Reagan-monster might have, um, helped win the Cold War, and even now they haven’t asked themselves any tough questions about the Left’s blind hatred of the man who did more than any other human being to save the world from nuclear war.
It may take that long for the truth about the war in Iraq to dawn, but dawn it will. America’s victory in Iraq broke the back of Al-Qaeda and left Osama bin Laden’s dream in ruins. He died a defeated fanatic in his Abbotabad hideaway; his dream was crushed in the Mesopotamian flatlands where he swore it would win.
I agree.
It’s not just the purple fingers, it’s also a string of seemingly unprobable developments such as the Sunni of Anbar turning on the jihadi a few years after having first enthusiastically given them their daughters in marriage, The grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani brokering the settlement of the Najaf episode upon his return from medical treatment in the UK, the pacification of the slums of Baghdad, as well as the shia prime minister eventually turning his untested forces against those of Moktada Al Sadr, and liberating the south from their tyranical grip. There were many more quasi-miracles accomplished by the dedication of our brave military confronting seemingly impossible odds.
Ultimately, it will be up to those who were still children during these dramatic years to remember the path open to them by the US soldiers, and build Iraq into a modern nation. Removing the burdens of the past is a huge undertaking, likely to take many generations, but the precedent of Iraq is already inspiring the youth in other Arab lands. What they are up against is daunting, but their aspirations could mark the start of a multi-generational effort, eventually creating opportunity for long oppressed people. This probably hinges on the ultimate discrediting of the jihadi, a long process that has in fact started.
To which Daniel Larison offers the necessary counterpoint: http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2011/05/30/a-disgraceful-distortion/
I have a lot of trouble describing a disaster narrowly averted as a “victory”. I really do. I’m not sure what I’d call it instead, but personally I think the same unique circumstances in Iraq that caused the catastrophe in the first place ultimately worked in our favor when Iraq’s sunni population decided its continued survival depended upon the US. I don’t really think we get credit for that, and if it had been up to me I wouldn’t have let our former adversaries change their mind. I would have let them die. Guess its a good thing it wasn’t up to me, eh? And that’s the one thing I believe the US leadership can take credit for – being wise enough to see which way the wind was blowing and to run with it.
On the other hand, I disagree with the aforementioned rebuttal as well. While it for the most part reflects my views of the war, I think it’s a mistake to downplay how much of an impact the war in Iraq had on Arab muslims, and on others. AQ (and affiliates) put its savagery and cruelty on display in Iraq for all the world to see. These alleged “holy warriors” showed themselves to be utterly evil. As evil as human beings can ever possibly be. That “disconnect” coming from people who claimed they were doing God’s work when their behavior was literally inhuman did register with Arabs. I saw it on the blogs and I noticed it in conversations. I’m not aware of any public admissions or even public discussions on the matter (too embarrassing to be wrong about such a big thing, maybe?) but the bulk of the Arabs I’ve been exposed to (and I have to believe that’s pretty representative) did process it. AQ killed itself in Iraq. All that said, I haven’t seen any evidence that Arabs are transferring AQ’s monstrous actions to other similar groups. Which is unfortunate, because there’s going to be a lot of pain and misery in the Arab world if each and every one of these god-damned terror groups has to expose themselves for the subhuman monsters they really are before they lose their popular backing. Obama saying we’re only at war with “Al Qaida and affiliates” doesn’t help, either. Does he even think that it does? He’s giving a pass to all the other mass-murdering jihadis just because they slap a different label on themselves. He probably thinks he’s narrowing the focus so the problem becomes more manageable, but I think he’s just making things worse.
Is this the same Iraq where soldiers fire upon protesters?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022601854.html
tg: Is this the same Iraq where soldiers fire upon protesters?
Yes, but Saddam Hussein, Al Qaeda, and the Iranian-backed Shia militias still lost their wars.
I hope you weren’t expecting the place to turn into New Zealand. Iraq is Iraq, and it always will be.
hear hear
and we are
just
getting
started
” Iraq is Iraq, and it always will be.”
Now that’s an honest statement. A far cry from
“Iraq was a historical turning point that may well turn out to be comparable to the cannonade of Valmy. It changed the course of world history.”
tg, those statements are not mutually exclusive. Al Qaeda put everything it had into Iraq and lost. It’s a big deal. It would be an even bigger deal if Al Qaeda won.
Craig – There is no second place, and we’re not playing for a tie.
That being said…
MJT – The war is far from over. While the focus has moved on to (many) other battlefields/nations, there is little reason to believe that it could not return to that same battlefield, and many reasons why it could.
=
Geographical…
ZONES
OF
CONFLICT,
R
tg, to compare PM Maliki to Saddam Hussein is obscene. Something that should only be expect from a brain damaged western academic leftist or a sectarian racist hack.
Let us remember that Gen Sherman, Gen Grant and other Generals did some pretty nasty stuff in the South. Even if it was for a good cause. So did the GoI and ISF.
Render, by May 2008, the ISF was unbeatable unless the “lovely brotherly neighbors” sharply increased their support for anti GoI militias. This said, I and more than a few Iraqis worry about the draconian cuts in the ISF budget Maliki imposed in the spring of 2008 because of the sharp drop in oil prices and the 95% drop in Iraqi violence. Most ISF procurement was either cancelled or delayed. The Iraqi parliament hasn’t approved significant ISF weapons procurement for more than three years. This is increasingly worrying because Iraqis are deeply uncertain about who will be ruling Iran, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, and the GCC in the near future.
MJT, by far the greatest achievement in Iraq by MNF-I is the ISF and other Iraqi institutions, which Mead should have acknowledged. This is the reason why the Arab League decided in early 2008 that GoI victory was inevitable and came to the GoI sporting their fake smile wanting to be friends. [Now the smiles are not as fake as they were in early 2008.]
As an aside, I find it unbelievable that Assad, who is guilty of sin, who tried to organize a genocide against Iraqis 2003-2008 by mass murdering the ISF, GoI and MNF-I, is backed by so many European, American and Israeli idiots. [And yes, no apologies for calling them "idiots".] Understand that there are those who hate Assad but don’t want to directly support the Syrian resistance [many Iraqis are in this category], but to call Assad a force for “stability.” What the hell?
And why are Jordan, Egypt, Libya, and the GCC still given a pass for their support of Sunni Arab militia inside Iraq 2003-2007? [Some of these countries played both sides against the middle by also backing the GoI and ISF.] They, the abomination Assad, and Khamenei are responsible for killing tens of thousands of Iraqis and thousands of MNF-I troops.
MJT, Iraq was a victory but not a great victory. Pres Bush didn’t order a major effort to build and support the ISF until after he met PM Maliki in June, 2006. [PM Maliki for his part reciprocated by sharply boosting GoI funding for the ISF and for committing himself to achieving victory.] Had Pres Bush ordered surging ISF capacity in 2002 or early 2003, many Iraqi and MNF-I lives could have been saved, and the war would have been much less expensive. Imagine the opportunity cost of the $1 trillion spent in Iraq.
Now the US congress is trying to undue the Iraq victory by showing Iraqis the finger. The US congress has consistently blocked Iraqis from buying military equipment, while allowing Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar to buy more advanced military equipment. A lot of Iraqis, especially Iraqis affiliated with the ISF, are furious about this.
Can anyone explain why the international press isn’t even discussing this? Or why Mead is calling Iraq a great victory without mentioning this issue?
The last chapter on Iraq has not been written. In this climate I’m not sure how the outcome will work out: http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/05/29/the-key-to-obama%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-the-world-turned-upside-down/
kzndr – eh, no. Nobody (amconmag) who links to Ron Paul and/or the neo-confederates and other suit-n-tie bigots is necessary, or particularly relevant, to anything, or anybody, except perhaps to the likes of Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul-bots.
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Anan – eh, no. ISF, without direct US intervention, was not unbeatable in 2008 and is not unbeatable now. ISF has no air force to speak of, extremely little functional heavy armor, and zero ability to protect its minimal Gulf coastline, or any of its other national borders.
http://home.comcast.net/~djyae/site/?/blog/category/13/
“Tanks are a measure of power in the mid-east. Power makes enemies lay low in the mid-east.”
-DJ Elliott
Iraq is indeed a victory, but it remains a tenuous and temporary one at best.
I’m not (never) sure what collective Europe’s excuse is for anything, regarding Syria, or anything else for that matter.
I’m only slightly more certain of what the US excuses regarding Syria are, typical knee-jerk leftist/socialist hand-wringing combined with paleo-con isolationism (see above) is always a toxic mix, especially with a knee-jerking hand-wringing socialist community organizer as our Commander-in-Chief. As well as a persistent lack of US military resources to be spread around an ever increasing ring of fire called the Arab Spring.
But I’m positive I know what Israel’s concern is; Assad, like his father, is a bloodthirsty tyrant who is well aware of how small and weak his own tribe is within Syria, but he has kept a shaky peace along the Golan Heights (up until now). Israel quite rightfully is apprehensive about what, and who, will replace Assad. And that Anan, is what the term “national interests” was coined to describe.
So, I’m going to ask this question once again; Anan, what is Turkey’s excuse for it’s own inaction regarding Syria? Why is Turkey continuing to support yet another pointless empty propaganda convoy to Gaza, when Egypt has opened up the Rafah Crossing already?
“War is cruelty. There’s no use trying to reform it. The crueler it is, the sooner it will be over.”
-William Tecumseh Sherman
STOP
PLAYING
SOFTBALL,
R
“what is Turkey’s excuse for it’s own inaction regarding Syria?” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s dalliances with Assad are also stupid.
Has any country in the world decisively come out against Assad and demanded he leave? Why not?
Regarding IqAF, share your concerns. Iraq has cancelled buying F16s to save money. And now Iraqi political economy may lead to the purchase of Czech L159s, which I don’t get. Aren’t supersonic JF-17s are far better choice for only marginally greater life cycle costs?
And Iraq needs to finalize its 4.5 gen fighter orders ASAP. Doesn’t matter what aircraft Iraq selects [since Congress will not allow IqAF to buy moderately modern versions of the F16, F15 and FA 18; Iraq has to chose between Rafale, Su35, Typhoon, Grippen and J10b.] Most likely Iraq will buy Rafale if India selects the Rafale for MMRCA. [Don't ask why Iraq cares so much whether India buys the Rafale, I don't get it either.]
“Why is Turkey continuing to support yet another pointless empty propaganda convoy to Gaza, when Egypt has opened up the Rafah Crossing already?” Good question. Far cheaper to export to Gaza through the Rafah crossing.
What are everyone’s thoughts about who wins the Palestinian election. Looks to me like Hamas loses. Could a third party such as Mustafa Barghouti do unexpectedly well?
PS. The overwhelming vast majority of Turks oppose Hamas and Hezbollah:
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-244518-turks-hold-least-favorable-view-of-hamas-hezbollah-pew-poll-shows.html
And if you notice Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s body language on Hamas and Hezbollah, it isn’t great. He knows how to put his finger up in the wind.
and that, as well as his ass……
http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/insideisrael/2011/May/Turkey-No-Interference-with-the-Flotilla/
I agree with you Anan, Turks in general do not like Hamas or Hizb’Allah and yet Erdogan plots his own direction. Doesn’t that tell you something? I separate the “people” from their “great leader”. We shall see what role he continues to play in Syria and Lebanon. His buddy Ahmadinejad refused Merkel’s jet passage to India…….
some humor from Pajamas http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/05/31/turkey-celebrates-558-years-of-illegal-occupation-of-constantinople/
Render: eh, genetic fallacy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13599172
And let’s not forget AQ and the ISI. Erdogan hasn’t gone that far yet. Reporters in Pakistan don’t last long reporting about that treasonous BS. In Turkey, they just get jailed.
As for the fate of Christians in Post US-Iraq, what happened to the Jews might be a guide: http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/iraq-s-kristallnacht-70-years-later-1.365157
Khamenei and the IRGC Kuds pay a heavy price for their insanity [blocking Merkek's plane being only one example]. Khamenei/IRGC have also been messing with India and Russia [the fact that India, Russia and China are quietly disassociating themselves with Khamenei demonstrates they think his days are numbered.] The whole world [aside from Sayyed Nasrallah perhaps] is irked with Khamenei; and even worse his regime is the butt of jokes.
Erdogan has publicly broken with Qaddafi and supports the NATO mission against him. Similarly Erdogan is publicly criticizing Assad. He keeps his distance from both Hezbollah and Hamas; saying that Lebanon and Palestine need free and fair elections and that Turkey will respect the decision of the voters. For all Erdogan’s faults, he is free market, pro business, supports price stability, committed to balanced budgets and efficient governance. Erdogan also wants to join the EU and Europe and supports better relations with the US as well as the rising global powers of India, China, Brazil and Indonesia. He is a little too friendly with autocrats [a failing sadly shared by too many European and American realists], and his Turkish exceptionalism can be slightly grating to non Turkish ears, but he isn’t as bad as many commentators on this blog describe him to be.
Much of Israeli/Turkish tension is because the Israel government and the pro Israeli lobby in Turkey didn’t treat the Turks as well as they should have.
“The overwhelming vast majority of Turks oppose Hamas and Hezbollah”
Of course, the same poll also shows that the overwhelming vast majority of Turks oppose the US. With a ten percent approval rate, the US barely got more support than Hamas. The same poll also shows the US has been extremely unpopular in Turkey for the last ten years.
Here’s a link to the actual poll.
http://pewglobal.org/files/2011/05/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Arab-Spring-FINAL-May-17-2011.pdf
If there are free and fair Palestinian elections, Hamas very well could win in the West Bank.
Anan, Erdogan can’t have it both ways. India is quite alarmed at Pakistan’s embrace of China and the Chinese have not cut Iran loose. Should India be angry at Turkish support for Chinese support for Pakistan? Where do you get the information China no longer is critical for the NK/Iranian nexus? Despite some public criticism of Syria, Erdogan hasn’t talked tough. Report after report talks about Erdogan blasting Israel but being far more civil to Assad. So much for the murder of Muslims…..
If you don’t “get it”, let me spell it out in terms a Turk put to me: Erdogan has taken the deep nationalism Turks feel and channeled into religious conflict and identity. Israel has always respected the Turkish leadership as long as they refrained from the usual ME talking points. Erdogan got Turkey involved in the religious conflict in the ME and even had the balls to warm to Iranian leadership. Erdogan was elected on a promise of economic reform and forging a pathway to liberal acceptance in the EU. He has made society less liberal in Turkey and reached out to the worst the ME has to offer.
And what hypocrisy from a leader who still occupies Cyprus and share little pain with the people of Lebanon or Syria.
Mossad knows what Turkey has been up to. The Israeli snubs you refer to came after Turkey had decided to move towards Hamas and Hizb’Allah. And Turkey would be wise to negotiate with Greece as the EU is not likely to accept the logic behind Turkey’s claim on Aegean oil and gas.
I also see you did not put Russia on the list Turkey is hoping to improve relationships with.
This below is the worst sort of election strategy replete with blood libel. Tell me Anan, how can you defend a leader who will not call Valley of the Wolves for what it is? Nor have you. Erdogan uses religious conflict stoked by Iran and Sunni/Shia terrorist groups to channel the Turkish Spirit: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Turkey-Israel-Set-for-New-Clash-Over-Second-Gaza-Aid-Flotilla-122879139.html
anan: Most likely Iraq will buy Rafale if India selects the Rafale for MMRCA. [Don't ask why Iraq cares so much whether India buys the Rafale, I don't get it either.]
My guess is a back-channel second source for spare parts (and etc) that’s not in Europe, is my guess.
anan: What are everyone’s thoughts about who wins the Palestinian election. Looks to me like Hamas loses. Could a third party such as Mustafa Barghouti do unexpectedly well?
No opinion. I stopped caring who Palestinians “elect” when they elected Hamas. Their priorities became clear to me at that time and if they vote otherwise in the future it’s only because they’ve lost faith in Hamas to deliver to them what they want. And to know what they want, all you have to do is read the Hamas charter.
PS. The overwhelming vast majority of Turks oppose Hamas and Hezbollah…
And if you notice Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s body language on Hamas and Hezbollah, it isn’t great. He knows how to put his finger up in the wind.
So? Is that supposed to change people’s attitudes towards Turkey?
For all Erdogan’s faults, he is free market, pro business, supports price stability, committed to balanced budgets and efficient governance.
The same could have been said for Adolf Hitler. What’s your point?
Erdogan also wants to join the EU and Europe…
He’s got a very strange way of showing it.
…and supports better relations with the US…
Again: He’s got a very strange way of showing it.
Kzndr – Indeed, by who’s definition of the term? In your own words, do attempt to demonstrate the necessity of Larison’s twisted neo-confederate viewpoint, beyond the realm of the bigoted isolationist.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2008/01/16/ron-pauls-real-politics-the-case-of-daniel-larison/
UNTIL
THEN,
R
” I find it unbelievable that Assad, … is backed by so many…Israeli idiots”
Once again this pinheaded, genocidal antisemitic psychopath finds a way to blame the savagery of his fascist Arab butt buddies on da Joooos. Listen up, anan, Assad is *your* boy. He’s backed by your beloved Iranian mullahs who you fellate 24×7 and is a big supporter of the murdering savages you continually pimp here, Hamas and Hezbollah. But then it’s not like we haven’t known for years what lying sack of shit you are.
“Much of Israeli/Turkish tension is because the Israel government and the pro Israeli lobby in Turkey didn’t treat the Turks as well as they should have.”
“Jews treating others well” == Jews all killing themselves or allowing anand’s savage pals to murder them. High point of human history for anand was when Jews were marched into the gas chambers of the Palestinians’ greatest ally, Hitler. But I must say I love it every time anand posts and proves my point that antisemites are nitwits, misfucks and born losers.
“Can anyone explain why the international press isn’t even discussing this?”
Can anyone explain how anand has survived however long he has lived with his head jammed so far up his ass you couldn’t blow it out with a nuke?