Arab countries may look more or less the same from remote distances, but they are radically different up close and in person. The data are different, too. Egypt’s is terrible.
The chances for democracy and liberalism are different in every country. Tunisia has a good chance because there is a strong middle class and a weak Islamist movement. But in Egypt look at the numbers in the latest Pew poll.
In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don’t). 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists:
Is this meaningless? Last December 20 I wrote that these “horrifying figures in Egypt…one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there….What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible.
I worry that the 59 percent of Egyptians who prefer Islamists to modernizers are going to have to learn the hardest way possible–as the Iranians have and the people of Gaza are learning right now–that modernizers are better. There may not be another way.
Michael:
I’m afraid you’re correct–it’s going to be a rough ride for the Egyptians for a while. It’s important, nonetheless, that (a) we encourage them to seek the form of democracy that they want, (b) that the US government stay out of their business, and (c) that we admit that much of America’s inept and inane foreign policy has helped to create the dire straits that Egypt is in today.
Frank Staheli
SimpleUtahMormonPolitics.com
“There may not be another way.”
In the West, we have flattered ourselves since the Enlightenment in thinking that reason has offered a better way. But pain, and suffering, have been the true teachers of humanity through all its history. And the lessons they teach have always had to be retaught: humanity has been a very average student.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162577.html
Well, Iran says it because of this: http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162577.html
I think South Park touched upon this in there episode Imagination Land. The narrative of identity is a powerful meme….
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=234851 and the Iranian intend to work on the narrative. Presently Israel is rather silent. Haaretz seems to think Assad and Netanyahu will be forced to get in in bed together protecting the old order of things.With the fall of Egypt, Israel has no Middle East friends.
Obama must be drinking lots of coffee right about now….
(Please ignore the first post)
Well, Iran says it because of this: http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162577.html
I think South Park touched upon this in there episode Imagination Land. The narrative of identity is a powerful meme….
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=234851 and the Iranian intend to work on the narrative. Presently Israel is rather silent. Haaretz seems to think Assad and Netanyahu will be forced to get in in bed together protecting the old order of things.With the fall of Egypt, Israel has no Middle East friends.
Obama must be drinking lots of coffee right about now….
Come on, let’s be honest here. Are Islam and democracy (at least as it is understood and defined in the West) really compatible? Like communism, Islam is not only a religion (yes, communism is a religion, and a jealous one at that) but a political party as well; a political party that excludes all others.
Western-style democracies are an aberration that–if they survive the decade–won’t survive the century.
….I’m the one who needs coffee, sorry about the typos..
its because
their Imagination
Iranians tend
gees…..
Unfortunately, under Mubarak the Egyptian government really didn’t do much to try and change this attitudes and bring about a modernized outlook. It’s pretty clear he didn’t want the competition a modernized middle class would present.
The state run media outlet Al-Ahram and others kept up a constant anti-western and anti-semitic throughout, distracting attention from Mubarak’s failures to reform by having his people blame the Jews and the West for everything that was going wrong.
Now there is no viable middle class alternative to the anti-western, ignorant Arab street or the ruling clique under Mubarak.
Mubarak must have some fears that there is an Islamist element. If this is accurate, some of the Muslim Brotherhood have been “detained”. (Isn’t that a lovely euphemism? It sounds so benign!) http://www.pipelinenews.org/index.cfm?page=mb1282011191.htm
Not sure if that news organization is reputable. Have never heard of it before today.
In yesterday’s Daily Beast, Bruce Friedel (formerly of the CIA no less) argues that we (i.e. the US) “should not fear the Muslim Brotherhood,” that they’re a moderating force that are demonized by Al Qaeda for not being radical enough.
Yeah, those numbers are certainly grim.
Harold, did Bruce Friedel mention whether or not he got fired from the CIA for being an idiot?
It’s always good news to see that someone as well-travelled as Mr. Totten is such an optimist (that arabs will ‘learn’ that modernizers are better, even if through the ‘hard’ way).
History is not much on his side… but I’ll stick to the idea. It’s more comfortable.
–Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood–
Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for
Middle East Policy
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0128_egypt_riedel.aspx
“The Egyptian Brotherhood renounced violence years ago, but its relative moderation has made it the target of extreme vilification by more radical Islamists.
Al Qaeda’s leaders, Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, started their political lives affiliated with the Brotherhood but both have denounced it for decades as too soft and a cat’s paw of Mubarak and America.”
It would be good to know the pedigree of the survey Rubin refers to–eg sample size, sampling method, reliability, validity—in other words–credibility?
Its in small print on his resume Craig.
Maybe one day when Europeans start migrating to Canada (much warmer then from Global Warming) they might reflect on the consequence of their trashing Washington and denying reality.
As for the blather from Iran, they think increasing the power of the narrative signal and will decrease the signal of the sectarian divide. At what point analyists start connecting dots is worth a betting pool.
Its far more relevant than the Super Bowl. W
work
Heh,nine comments so far and no one has noticed that Michael accidentally copied the wrong link.
Rubin’s article is here: http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/01/interview-on-egyptian-revolt
Victor, the poll info you are questioning can be found here: http://pewglobal.org/files/2010/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Muslim-Report-FINAL-December-2-2010.pdf
Pew is probably the most respected polling organization in the world.
“…they’re a moderating force that are demonized by Al Qaeda for not being radical enough.”
The difference between the Muslim Brotherhood and their bastard-child al-Queda is only a matter of patience.
You’re familiar with the old joke about the old bull and the young bull sitting up on the hill, looking down on a field of heifers, right?
Agree about Pew. I read that Rubin’s article already from the same link….Good observation
later.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12316078
It just keeps on getting better…
Obama’s third cup of coffee and breaking out those cigarettes?
Here’s a fairly recent poll that shows 64% of Egyptians think Sharia Law should be the only source of legislation:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108724/iranians-egyptians-turks-contrasting-views-sharia.aspx
In Iran it’s only 14%.
Craig: no, Friedel didn’t talk about being fired from the CIA. My personal, humble opinion is that Friedel is dumber than a bag of hammers. His talk about the MB being a non-violent organization reminds me of the time (many years ago, before Jews were stripped of citizenship and ethnically cleansed from Egypt) that the MB reportedly attacked and burned a Jewish nursing home. I have family members whose entire belongings were stolen and who were then kicked out of the country and informed that they had no right of return. To this day, the official Egyptian version of these events is that the Jews left “voluntarily.” So Jewish life in Egypt has been made, for all intents and purposes, extinct. Meanwhile, Israel has more than 1 million Arabs, and, I’m “told,” Israel’s “the bad guy.”
11. Dikehopper
Thanks for the link to Pew–it was not on MJT original link.
I agree, Pew has credibility.
It appears from Pew that Jordan is more extremist than Egypt and that Turkey is– by a wide margin–the most moderate pro West Muslim state.
The data on Egypt is troubling, we should link any US aid to the aggressive promotion American values re tolerance
—we should measure progress at regular intervals and reward progress and punish failure- according to valid metrics.
Victor, do you think it moderate to release an antisemetic and inflammatory movie in Germany of all places on Holocaust Remembrance Day?
Will you rent the new Valley of the Wolves? Can you actually feel this weekend, everything is going according to your theory?
The difference between Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood is the difference between Reid/Pelosi/Frank and Ted Rall/Ward Churchill/Michael Moore.
One of them wants to institute a crushing of principled dissent, silencing of debate, propagandize the entire information stream, install totalitarianism and overthrow the American government.
The other three aren’t currently members of government.
http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=205764
I must say Craig, I told you so. The Tea Party just shot the GOP in the foot.
Egypt at the edge and Paul says cut aid to Israel. From the very first controversy regarding his father’s antisemitism came the predictions of his son’s views…..
If Wiener doesn’t jump all over this, I’ll be surprised.
The media, including Fox, are insisting that MB is not visible. No kidding says I, MB is a secretive organization, they never advertise, unless they think they’ve already won.
The media keeps insisting that the Egyptian army is “protecting the civilians from the police.”
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0129/Army-protecting-Egypt-protesters-from-police-video
Watch the above video very closely. Which direction are those M-113A1′s of the 1st Republican Guard Armored Division facing? Which direction are the .50cal machine guns on top of those M-113A1′s facing? The Egyptian 1st Republican Guard is not regular Egyptian army, they are the regimes well paid praetorian guard, and they are the only army units seen in Cairo so far.
If the “army” is on the protestors side, then who is setting the 1st RG’s M-113A1′s on fire, the police, other army units? I’ve already seen video of one burning APC, was that spontaneous combustion?
REMEMBER
TO
BREATHE,
R
Max, I’m not a Tea Partier. But I’ll also say “I told you so”, because I think it was you I was talking to when I suggested trying to get any kind of consensus of opinion out of such a diverse group is like herding cats
Maxtrue: “Egypt at the edge and Paul says cut aid to Israel.”
But that’s not what he said. This is what he said (according to your article):
In an interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN this week, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul said the US should cut all foreign assistance to plug the deficit, including Israel aid.
I’m not here to defend Rand Paul, or his father. I don’t know much about the son’s politics’ but I find Ron Paul’s positions ridiculous. He takes libertarian views to such an extreme he may as well be an anarchist. But! It really pisses me off when people expose their agendas to the extent that “end all foreign assistance” becomes “end aid to Israel”. Such creative use of language completely distorts issues and just pisses people off for no reason. That’s bordering on propaganda.
BTW Max, I didn’t mean to single you out and criticize what you said here. You were just repeating what the article said. It’s the article and some of the people it was quoting that I meant to criticize
BTW#2 on your article, Max:
When Blitzer asked about continuing aid to Israel, Paul replied, “When you send foreign aid, you actually [send] quite a bit to Israel’s enemies, Islamic nations around Israel get quite a bit of foreign aid, too.”
He was apparently referring to aid to countries such as Egypt, which receives money as part of the peace treaty it signed with Israel.
“I don’t think funding both sides of the arm race, particularly when we have to borrow the money from China to send it to someone else, we just can’t do it anymore,” he said.
He’s right about that, of course. Doesn’t US Aid go in this order:
1) Israel
2) Afghanistan
3) Egypt
4) Pakistan
I think that was a pretty sensible statement, considering it came from a member of the Paul family.
The poll results show the problem with demagoguing about wanting to spread “democracy” in the Middle East; everyone likes to bang the drum for so noble an idea, except when confronted with the fact that democracy sometimes means accepting a government that isn’t friendly towards us, or that we find repugnant.
In the short term, supporting dictators to prevent unfriendly regimes has long been our “realistic” foreign policy- except it usually only makes the blowback worse when they fall- and they always do fall, in the end.
No, it okay Craig. By now I get you. And you responded just how I imagined you would. At the time Mubarak is threatened and Israel is under increased pressure from events in Lebanon and Egypt, he wants to cut aid to Israel. Yes, he would cut aid to Pakistan as well as everyone, but he makes no distinctions. I get it and this is what Paul was spouting even before the economic crisis. This works in the Democrats favor though Paul is sure to win some points with MoveOn. Your position and those of many Libertarians I speak to is not the Paul line in this case. You, by the way are somewhat of a hawkish Libertarian. And not a chicken hawkish one at that.
Its just that the Tea Party does have some negative elements and having two different responses to Obama speech sent out the wrong signal I think. It serves Democrats cover and deflects from GOP “neo-realism”, though deficits are a problem underlying Paul’s stretched logic. The aid to Israel which funnels back into DOD revenue is a fly in a 14.5 trillion dollar debt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8290549/Angry-scenes-outside-Egyptian-embassy-in-London.html
Now this is ironic. Egyptians chanting the cry of Israeli slaves more than two thousand years ago. Some of these protesters have left out some obvious twists. The new government might actually pick up where the Pharaoh left off and go after those Jewish slaves. I rather think their choice of tunes was intentional as a message to more than one audience……
Hell Craig, it is larger than just aid as Saudi Arabia wants 60 billion in weapons. It is strange as India claims much of the money we give Pakistan goes into nuke production aimed at them.
So it is a mess and one thing is sure, Obama really changed nothing. This was not what I hoped for. I guess he is wondrin how tough history will be if in a year from now Egypt is in sync with Tehran. I’m not sure what he’s counting on to get past 2012 though I agree with you there were limited options. Still, I find it crazy that some Obamots point to Southern Sudan as an example of political progress. Really, I thought it was about Russian tanks…….
later..
M
#22 Craig wrote, “Such creative use of language completely distorts issues and just pisses people off for no reason. That’s bordering on propaganda.”
Man, oh, man. You really hit on a pet peeve of mine. I agree with you. And it doesn’t matter what the subject/issue is. Such word games border on more than just propaganda. It borders on lying. It’s dishonest.
That’s why I no longer listen to talk radio. Too much of that, dishonesty, even among the talk radio hosts who I agree with on 90%+ of the issues.
When I was publishing a newsletter, I said more than once that, “You don’t have to be dishonest to support [fill in the blank]. It’s completely unnecessary.”
For the record, I oppose reducing aid to Israel. It’s not pure “aid.” We get military strategic value in return.
Dikehopper, I think I made my point clearer. Paul does want to cut aid to Israel AND everyone else. He also had some pearls of wisdom on the meaning of such aid to Israel and said nothing about any strategic advantage or DOD revenue.
#28 Maxtrue – No problem – I know you understand the issue. I was just off on my own rant.
I’m about to make another post regarding taxes and spending that is also only my own rant. Not directed at anyone. I’m just spouting off, as I sometimes do.
or maybe USasians will learn , as Rand Paul is trying to teach them, that overextended Empires can’t endure, and maybe dual loyalists will learn that Zionism is a failed project.
There is not *a* Tea Party. Rather, it is a grass-roots movement. There are many organizations that call themselves Tea Parties, spread throughout the country.
When they first sprang up, I took a dim view of them because I thought their main focus was on tax rates (tax rates, not taxes). I’m happy to say that, instead, their main focus is on spending. That’s my number one issue, too.
I’ve long said that taxes = spending. It’s as simple and straightforward as that. If the federal government spends a dollar then, one way or another, it has to tax a dollar. (Or pay interest on a borrowed dollar, which is really the same thing.) We are just pushing it off onto future generations.
Paul does want to cut aid to Israel AND everyone else. He also had some pearls of wisdom on the meaning of such aid to Israel and said nothing about any strategic advantage or DOD revenue.
The Tea Party is by necessity an American isolationist movement.
#30 Ken Hoop wrote, “or maybe USasians will learn , as Rand Paul is trying to teach them, that overextended Empires can’t endure, and maybe dual loyalists will learn that Zionism is a failed project.”
You have no idea what you are talking about. Zionism is a highly successful “project” in the United States.
The definition of Zionism is the support of Israel as the “homeland” of the Jewish people. The vast, vast majority of non-Jewish Americans support that. Therefore, the vast majority of Zionists in America are not Jews. (Including me.)
In fact, I’m quite sure that Rand Paul is, by definition, a Zionist.
And it’s never going to change. I feel safe in promising you that.
We accepted that the Haitians were entitled to democracy and helped them remove Duvalier. A year later we did the same for the Filipinos by convincing Marcos to step down. Soeharto stepped down (not by choice) in 1998 and the U.S. government was smart enough not to stick its nose into Indonesian affairs. Despite dire predictions at the time about the future, Indonesia has done fairly well since they recovered from the Asian currency crisis. Is there any reason why Egyptians are any less entitled to democratic government than the Haitians, Filipinos, and Indonesians?
Sheesh, stype. From Wikipedia:
“The Tea Party is a political movement that has sponsored locally and nationally coordinated protests opposing taxes and spending since early 2009 and a caucus of the House of Representatives in the United States.[1][2][3] Its platform is explicitly populist[4][5][6] and is generally recognized as conservative and libertarian.[7][8] It endorses reduced government spending,[9][10] lower taxes,[10] reduction of the national debt and federal budget deficit,[9] and adherence to an originalist interpretation of the United States Constitution.[11] … The Tea Party movement has no central leadership but is composed of a loose affiliation of national and local groups that determine their own platforms and agendas.”
I think that’s a pretty accurate description. Most all of the Tea Parties (plural) have decided to avoid most social and foreign affair policies. They are neither isolationist nor interventionist.
Dike,
Defense spending is greater than all the other discretionary spending in the federal budget combined.
We’ve already seen the Tea Party voice support for Defense spending cuts.
Can’t have much of an American-style foreign policy without the military muscle to back it up.
Plus, the average American overestimates the amount of money America spends on foreign aid by a factor of ten…hard for the Tea Party not to advocate cutting our “excessive” foreign aid budget and remain credible.
Abelard,
)
It all depends on whom you’re dealing with, their mind-set and their animosities.
The Germans and Japanese did extremely well because of US’s very generous aid and good governance (IMHO the only positive thing about MacArthur, another topic
But there are those that whatever you give them will always hate you and wish to destroy you, regardless.
Maybe Egypt will turn out well but at this point its hard know.
Personally, I’m pessimistic.
Ken Hoop,
Your comment is ignorant, ridiculous, insulting and more than a little idiotic. It borders on racism and antisemitism.
It is also contradicted by history.
Dikehopper is right you haven’t got a clue and I’m not wasting my time trying to educate an ignoramus.
Ken Hoop. See the below posting from 2006, re-posted in full.
===
http://rhymeswithright.mu.nu/archives/187725.php
“July 25, 2006 – A Decision To Ban”
“As folks around here know, I don’t ban commenters very often. Indeed, I had only one banned individual on this site as recently as an hour ago — a guy who kept insisting upon posting profanity-laced rants on my site rather than engaging in reasoned argumentation.”
“And that leads me the decision I made this afternoon.”
“I’ve had a commenter who is vigorously opposed to Israel commenting here. Now I’m willing to accept that position as legitimate — indeed, it has not been too many years since I was a vigorous critic of Israel. I recognize that opposition to Israeli policy and criticism of Israeli leaders need not be based in anti-Semitism, and respect an honest discussion of the topic. I would, in fact, welcome such discussion here.”
“Unfortunately, the commenter in question, Ken Hoop (revbronco@yahoo.com — send him as much spam as you want) has crossed the line several times. Not only has he repeatedly made rather disgusting statements in posts, but he also sent me even more vile material in my email. This included links to extremist sites like antiwar.com, davidduke.com, and juancole.com. I can accept such items in the spirit they are offered — a hate-filled spirit, to be sure, but one which at least makes a pretense of intellectual discussion.”
“Today I received an email containing various links and graphics from a site called holywar.org. After opening the email and looking at the site, I felt a compulsion to bathe in the hopes that I could remove the contamination caused by viewing such material. I will not even describe it, except to indicate that it is anti-Semitic, anti-Catholic, and laden with a level of bigotry that I did not think that even Ken Hoop could descend to.”
“Ken Hoop is now banned. His emails are now deleted before I ever see them. I have blocked every IP from which he has ever posted, including at least two public library systems in the Cincinnati area (one in Ohio, one in Kentucky). If anyone has difficulty commenting as a result, please feel free to email me and I will see if we can make other arrangements to allow you to post while keeping the hatemonger off of this site.”
===
http://www.soldiersperspective.us/2008/01/29/landing-punches/
http://smoothstone.blogspot.com/2007/12/ken-hoop-pimps-for-islam.html
BAN
ON
SIGHT,
R
I know, I know. I didn’t follow my own advice.
The Devil made me do it. It’s not my fault.
Got to run but I’m curious Michael, any thoughts on what the reaction would be if Iran tried something serious and Israel struck? In this dynamic would that mean Mubarak’s out and Lebanon rejects the STL? How smart is KSM? I think you see what I’m getting at.
And how does Assad feel or even Erdogan with the MB? I don’t know enough to speculate.
stype: …the average American overestimates the amount of money America spends on foreign aid by a factor of ten…
Actually, the average critic of the US (that’s people like you) underestimate what the US gives to other countries by a lot more than a factor of ten, because such people look only at direct aid, and ignore all the other forms of aid and assistance the US renders. But that’s OK. It’ll make it easier to cut those programs, since people like you won’t even notice. Programs like UNRWA which receives about 75% of its funding from the US for instance… I’m sure when we cut that somebody else will step up to the plate. They always do, don’t they?
Maxtrue: You, by the way are somewhat of a hawkish Libertarian.
No, I don’t think so. I think some of those hedonists who like to call themselves “libertarian” just need to read the biographies of the people they claim to be emulating
Michael: I think you have the wrong link for Rubin. The correct one is
http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/01/special-report-egypt-revolt-and-us-policy
Rand (not Ron) Paul is only a designated spokesperson for himself. Whenever humans gather it seems an innate impulse to look for a Head surfaces. The Tea Party movement, which this non-spokesperson is glad to support, appears to be a collection of leaderless ideas, by evolution if not design, primarily focused on America’s roots in its Constitution, the size of government and government’s reach into citizens’ lives, and the inevitable consequences of an unaddressed, cumulative burden of debt.
As Craig points out, “funding both sides of the arm race, particularly when we have to borrow the money from China to send it to someone else, we just can’t do it anymore,” reflects economic reality.
I agree with Dikehopper that what we give Israel comes back in value; to what extent can that be said of Pakistan or Egypt?
Does anyone know if Rand Paul is in favor of cutting the funds we give to the UN, which come to some $5 billions a year? Does funding the UN count as “foreign aid?”
#42 Lorenzo – Comment poster #11 came up with even a different “correct” link. This is so confusing.
–Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood–…
Victor how can you reprint such pernicious nonsense?
You might take notice that Hamas is a chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood. I wont’ bother telling you what Hamas has been doing in Gaza (and against the Palestinian people, yes them), if you wanted to know then you already would and wouldn’t print this sort of thing.
Willful blindness seems to be the most popular stance these days.
Also, while we’re busy attacking tea party morons, I should point out that John Kerry just blamed the insurrection in Egypt on Israel.
Thank God we dodged the bullet on that idiot. Maybe there should be a Palin/Kerry ticket so we can get our stupid from both sides of the spectrum at once.
#43 Paul S. is right. Rand Paul does not speak for, is not the head, of the various Tea Parties.
A number of politicians and talk show hosts have tried to co-opt the movement. The various Tea Parties have done a good job of not letting that happen. Some of them have even forbidden politicians and talk show hosts from speaking at their events.
We veer offroad, but take a look at this, Joshua, and then point out the “stupid” part:
“Obama’s Message to America: The Era of Big Government is Back, Now Help Me Pay For It”
by Sarah Palin
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=494999858434
Maxtrue: The Assad family hates the MB. Remember Hamma? Erdogan is probably a secret member of the MB. (His wife uses a scarf).
Craig: I didn’t know that 75% of the funding of the UNRWA comes from the USA. Personally, I am deeply embarrased that my taxpayers money is being ABUSED supporting a group of leeches that for the past 60+ years make a living encouraging the misery of the Palestinians.
Victor: The MB is the most organized and disciplined group in the ME. If they take over Egypt things will either get rough for the West or Saudi Arabia (ha, ha, ha)will have to step in and cover for the amount that we may withdraw if they get to cocky. Egypt doesn’t have much to sell to the world except poverty, cotton, tourism and gas , (=if they get their act together).
As far as I am concerned the USA should cut funding to the UN also.
“–Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood–…
Victor how can you reprint such pernicious nonsense?”
It is not nonsense to Victor. Victor’s biggest fear is that the fanatic antisemitic annihilationists of the MB will *not* take power. Same goes for stype and fnord.
Dikehopper,
I suspect the “Who’s in charge here?” impulse is in our DNA.
In the stats Barry Rubin mentions, the “84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion” struck me as especially ominous, not that the other, lower percentages were reason for much optimism either.
“As far as I am concerned the USA should cut funding to the UN also.”
Or, at least, scale it way back, this non-accountant’s cost-benefit analysis concludes.
@ 46. Joshua Scholar
“–Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood–…
Victor how can you reprint such pernicious nonsense?”
My guess is that you are making mistaken assumptions that “Victor” posts honestly, in-good-faith, and as a representative American, etc.
“Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood”
Supporting evidence, to calm the fears of the skeptical, being…?
Regarding—
“–Don’t Fear Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood–…
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0128_egypt_riedel.aspx
The Author of the Article is
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy
A former CIA officer, Bruce Riedel focuses on political transition, terrorism and conflict resolution.
He was a senior adviser to three U.S. presidents on Middle East and South Asian issues.
At the request of President Obama he chaired an inter-agency review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan for the White House that was completed in March 2009.
Riedel’s latest book, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad was recently featured by David Sanger in an article in The New York Times.
The more people promiscuously misuse the the term ” antisemitism ”
the less it is worth and the less it means.
The reality of the World is that you negotiate peace with you enemies–not your friends.
1st step–listen to your enemies–that is the General Petraeus Doctrine, the Baker Doctrine and the Smart Doctrine and the US determines its OWN foreign policy.
“Commerce with all nations, alliance with none”
-Thomas Jefferson
The credo of the Ikhwan (The muslim brotherhood):
“Allah is our objective; the Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader; Jihad is our way; and death for the sake of Allah is the highest of our aspirations.”
With that credo, they don’t give themselves much negotiation room. But then from their viewpoint, the wriggling and writhing is to be done by those who must, by “right”, submit to them.
“Victor” might be clueless. But I give him (or her) more credit than that. As such, it is clear that honesty and good faith are not, to use the dative of possession, to “Victor”.
I just saw Mona Eltahawy on CNN being interviewed by Wolf Blitzer. Ms. Eltahawy is a liberal, secular, feminist Egyptian who has worked extensively in Israel and also writes for, among others, The Jerusalem Report. She is extremely gung-ho about the current protests and her latest article (she has a website) which was published today in the Toronto Star dismisses the possibility that the Islamists or Muslim Brotherhood will take over in Egypt. She reports that the MB has only about 20-35% support among the Egyptian populace. Michael, do you know her, and do you have any take on what she is saying?
Harold,
As an outsider, I wonder if tight organization and (ruthless) determination, riding unorganized discontent, will bend that support percentage upwards over time.
I agree, there are vast differences from the Maghreb to Baghdad and to view Arab identity as homogeneous is down right absurd. I share Totten’s optimism and feel that these numbers reflect more support for Islamist sentiments in response to Israel than they do a genuine interest by the Egyptian people to be governed by such groups. There will be a place at the table for the Muslim brothers, but in my experience support for the brothers goes about as far as their hatred for Israel and then drops off once it comes to governing.
Excellent article about Israel and the uprisings in the Arab world
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205794
Victor,
The reality of the World is that you negotiate peace with you enemies…
My enemies are people who blow themselves up in order to kill innocent human beings. I don’t want peace with them. I want them killed, before they get a chance to do their evil work.
Sorry, Victor, but all that boilerplate diplo-speak is useless when dealing with jihad. If they agree not to kill you today, it’s only because they plan to kill you tomorrow. I don’t want to live my life with that hanging over my head, and I don’t think many other Americans do either. They need to be removed from the equation, one way or another.
China is run very smoothly through a dictatorship. The key is the military. In Tunisia the military were poorly paid. In Egypt the opposite is true. The military are definitely within the middle class. And, it’s a job with a future! There’s terrible poverty, though. And, the rising support prices on foods and oil went up. Will the military still win?
In Libya there’s a good chance that the military controls. And, among Kadaffi’s kids, there’s at least one. The 7th son. Who is an architect,and promises democracy, “could” inherit his dad’s empire. Or not.
But, yes, you can keep people under the thumb of dictators. While the “cell phone” revolutions haven’t picked up the steam that the Ukraine got. Put down by Putin with tanks. And, of course, the very sad exit of the Shah of Iran. While Lebanon has gone back into Assad’s pocket.
I think the media just tends to hype stuff up. And, then? Well, where’s the Cedar Revolution these days? It’s more interesting than not, that the “bloom is off the revolutionary rose.” While Obama dithers. Throw in Jimmy Carter. And, it’s no wonder we get no respect. Though, yes, they love to take our money. And, they want our ships to keep their Suez Canal productive. How long can Cairo go without tourists? Hm?
61. Craig
Right–the PFC defends his friends–the issues is not just why are his friends there in the first place
–but how does it end?
Without diplomacy– it ends with every body dead or crippled.
America faces no threat from MB or HZB
–it is not our problem
–we can hold the coats while you fight with him-I suppose.
There are many bad guys in the world–not our problem and not in our US interests
–we did not commit our Marines to fight the IRA or the Tamil Tigers
If Israel wants to continue its colonial campaign it is their problem–not a US problem.
“Commerce with all nations, alliance with none”
-Thomas Jefferson
Keep in mind that arabs are tribal. Even in Irak, the borders are artificial. There are 3 groups who want “country side” … Kurds. Shi’a. And, Sunni. Under Saddam, because he used terror, everybody lived within those borders. Then came Gulf War #1. Yet, Saddam was not overthrown.
Then, with our next incursion into Irak, following 9/11, Maliki saw to it that Saddam was hung. While it was the Sunnis who pressed Dubya to enter the fray. And, it was the Sunnis (through Kuwait), that wanted the oil fields in Basra. Now the Chinese have been invited in “to do business.”
China’s held together by a dictator. Russia, too, offers the same option. While the “art of democracy” has not blossomed in one single muslem country!
And, the only reason Assad is still in Damascus is that this suits Israel! Israel doesn’t, and didn’t, want Syria turned over to its majority sunni population.
Tunisia was an anomaly because the military was paid poorly. As long as the military life pays well, there are volunteers. Currently, the test is on the Egyptian military. I have no odds to offer.
Very interresting! I note that the link to Barry Rubin is this one:
http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/01/interview-on-egyptian-revolt
And, the only reason Assad is still in Damascus is that this suits Israel! Israel doesn’t, and didn’t, want Syria turned over to its majority sunni population.
Facepalm. You have no idea whatsoever how things work.
Also learn to spell “Iraq”
Victor would claim “American faces no thread from Al Qaeda” if he thought he could get away with it.
Victor:
If Israel wants to continue its colonial campaign it is their problem–not a US problem.
It’s like all the problems in the Middle East are a big funnel emptying into Israel.
Funnel-Centric Middle Eastern Policy: does Israel control gravity?
What was this thread about, again?
“If Israel wants to continue its colonial campaign…”
Your train of thought has left the tracks entirely, Victor—unless you have supporting evidence for the existence of these Zionist “colonies.”
Note to self: repeat rule:
NEVER waste time and energy debating with
belief
ignorance
or
neurosis.
Harold, Others,
Disturbing similarity:
“The Ikwan is in a roughly analogous position to the Communists in Russia in 1917, whose iron will and willingness to use violence required only seven months to seize power from the fragile transitional government that overthrew the czar.”
“First Protests, Then What — Will the Muslim Brotherhood Soon Be Running Egypt?”
Chuck DeVore
FoxNews
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/01/28/protests-muslim-brotherhood-soon-running-egypt/
America faces no threat from MB or HZB
Oh, really? So, if you were obviously a filthy zionist American would you trust members of either of those groups not to murder you, if they caught you in a vulnerable position and they knew they could get away with it? Answer that question honestly, and I’ll let you off the hook for all the times people associated with HA or the MB have already proven they are a threat to Americans.
–it is not our problem
You may be right that the Muslim Brotherhood isn’t our problem, today. But what about tomorrow? They are the leading manufacturer of sunni terrorists, even if they have up to now exported them to other groups before activation. That export will no longer be necessary, if Egypt becomes a safe haven for them.
You claim that Hezbollah isn’t a threat to Americans seems unhinged, so I won’t dignify that with a response.
Victor,
It was not in “US interests” to do anything during the Rwandan Genocide but we still should have done something with the rest of the world (who also did nothing) to try and help the 1,070,000 who were butchered.
Michael had an actual Hezbollah member arguing in this comment section, as well as a boy who was a Hezbollah fan from Lebanon (who’s parents sent him to Britain hoping he’d get over it)…
If you gave a Nazi enough mescaline to almost kill him, you’d have a reasonable approximation of a Hezbollah believer.
“My guess is that you are making mistaken assumptions that “Victor” posts honestly, in-good-faith, and as a representative American, etc.”
del gets it.
Just a short notice: i found the same numbers you are using in this article somewhere else:
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
and it seems like they origin from the PEW Research Center. But apparently they do NOT stand for the egyptian population but only for muslims in egypt – who make about 90% of the population according to cia’s world factbook.
that doesnt change the numbers completely, but imho it is just important to be exact on statistics.
typo: Arab countries make look more or less the same
make >> may
Great note, but the alternative to them learning the hard way would have been “better Israeli occupation”, like in Gaza & S. Lebanon.
Instead of Israeli neglect and non-concern for capitalism building in the occupied terror-tories.
Similarly, the US gov’t should be giving “aid” to Egyptian companies, which have to make peaceful deals, rather than gov’ts. Which don’t have to, and don’t.
In fact, the whole post-WW II “aid” from gov’ts to gov’t, instead of to businesses, is why aid doesn’t work.
“Your train of thought has left the tracks entirely, Victor-unless you have supporting evidence for the existence of these Zionist “colonies.”"
Isn’t New York a Jewish colony?
I spent some time this morning trying to get a feel for the present situation in Egypt. My conclusion? What a complicated mess. I don’t think anyone knows how this will turn out.
Miscellaneous things I ran across this morning that may be of interest to you:
Michael Totten’s visit to Egypt in 2005 (for some background): http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001019.html
A Phyllis Chesler photographic story that helps illustrate a point made in Totten’s piece: http://pajamasmedia.com/phyllischesler/2010/01/28/the-steady-erosion-of-womens-rights-in-egypt-a-photographic-story/
Latest overview from the Associated Press: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110130/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest
Washington Post on relations between protesters and the military: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012903283.html?hpid=topnews
A couple of reports/analysis from Stratfor (a foreign intelligence outfit, of sorts). I think you will be able to read them without subscribing or registering. If not, you can read quite a bit from Stratfor just by registering: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110129-the-egyptian-unrest-a-special-report and http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110129-red-alert-hamas-and-muslim-brotherhood?utm_source=redalert2&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110129&utm_content=readmore&elq=319482193a8e4b6ea76cfd74e12a2354
Barry Rubin opines on what he thinks U.S. policy should be: http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/01/special-report-egypt-revolt-and-us-policy
Option A :General Suleiman and the army take over
—> calm restored,economy restarted + cold peace with Israel maintained
Option B :muslim brothers+ el baradei ………..>
-peace treaty denounced
-Egyptian army in the Sinai and in gaza ?????????
Start of armagedon ?
Democracy will guarantee a Sheria (sp.) based government in Egypt. There is little or no chance if a Republic. The Coptic Christians will suffer and the only weapons the West will have will be food and medicine.
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/30/133348639/as-tunisians-cheer-egypt-islamist-leader-returns
Please note that “scholars” say the returning Islamist leader is “moderate”. Isn’t that a large part of the equation as to what “public opinion” becomes? Clerics and religious leaders debate what “moderate” is and they then announce what is hardly moderate.
In Egypt, the clerics and scholars are among the most outrageous commenters posted at Memri. They are even crazier than Iran’s, though less dangerous. Sunday, the US position is basically is the opposite of the anti-war that voted for him. Clinton knows very well she is one step from our making the Carter administration look smart.
The game seems simple; Jokers use Democratization fueled by the legitimate grievances that play well in the Western Press, fueled by the feet of Islamists and Leftists (depending on the composition of the country), and enable the strategic plans of our enemies. The enemies keep brutal control of their people such as Iran, North Korea, Syria and the Sudan.
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to see what this dangerous lesion will become. And its too late to simply cut out the cancerous area, the body needs chemo too. The more things devolve into the very opposite of what our guest apologists claim it will evolve, the stupider, not more intelligent, the conversation becomes. Never have the stakes been so serious and the propaganda so transparently abhorrent.
Most of America’s enemies negotiated a “peace” after they had their ass handed to them. And no other country was as fair and generous in “victory” than the US. What some of our esteemed visitors here suggest, is that we should sign that surrender terms now and capitulate any reasonable guarantee that the promises made are to be kept and future generations will not ask grand pa why his generation let go the ball their daddy’s caught.
Either we are heading towards a Grand Bargain or we have only yet begun fight. The the dark convergence of despair and radicalism empowers clever adversaries dodging daily the targets on their heads. Their final call to resistance will be towards all we call Liberal Democracy.
We forget and even deny that fact at our own peril.
STOCK
MINOTAURS
AND
WAVERIDERS
M
——-excuse the double post — post-coffee below ————
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/30/133348639/as-tunisians-cheer-egypt-islamist-leader-returns
Please note that “scholars” say the returning Islamist leader is “moderate”. Isn’t that a large part of the equation as to what “public opinion” becomes? Clerics and religious leaders debate what “moderate” is and they then announce what is hardly moderate.
In Egypt, the clerics and scholars are among the most outrageous commenters posted at Memri. They are even crazier than Iran’s, though less dangerous. Sunday, the US position is basically the opposite of the anti-war view that voted for Obama. Clinton knows very well she is one step from our making the Carter administration look smart.
The game seems simple; Jokers use Democratization fueled by the legitimate grievances of the people that play well in the Western Press, mobilized by the feet of Islamists and Leftists (depending on the composition of the country), and thus enable the strategic plans of our enemies. The enemies keep brutal control of their people such as Iran, North Korea, Syria and the Sudan.
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to see what a dangerous lesion will become. And its too late to simply cut out the cancerous area, the body needs chemo too. The more things devolve into the very opposite of what our guest apologists claim it will evolve, the stupider, not more intelligent, the conversation becomes. Never have the stakes been so serious and the propaganda so transparently abhorrent.
Most of America’s enemies negotiated a “peace” after they had their ass handed to them. And no other country was as fair and generous in “victory” than the US. What some of our esteemed visitors here suggest, is that we should sign the surrender terms now and capitulate any reasonable guarantee that the promises made are to be kept and future generations will not ask Grand Pa why his generation let go the ball their Daddies caught.
Either we are heading towards a Grand Bargain or we have only yet begun fight(forgive the plagiarism). The dark convergence of despair and radicalism empowers clever adversaries dodging daily the targets on their heads. Their final call to resistance will be towards all we call Liberal Democracy.
We forget and even deny that fact at our own peril.
STOCK
MINOTAURS
AND
WAVERIDERS
M
Clinton knows very well she is one step from our making the Carter administration look smart.
I don’t agree
The west was in large part to blame for encouraging the overthrow of the Shah in the late 1970s, and for promoting people like Khomeini as an alternative. And the reason we were pimping the Islamists is that the Russians were busy pimping Marxists and Communists as the alternative, and we didn’t understand exactly how bad an Islamic theocracy would be at the time. The decision to undermine the shah was made by outsiders – with the Carter Administration out front – and it was a conscious effort. I haven’t seen any evidence of that happening in Egypt. Have you? This seems to be a case where the people have just had all they can take, who were encouraged by an unprecedented success in another Arab country. Not much we can do about it except wait it out and hope everything turns out OK. If anyone is to blame, it is Bush. Unlike Obama, he PROMISED to promote democracy in his second state of the union address. He made that formal US policy. And while he did push Mubarak to reform his government quite hard for a while, he backed off pretty quick for reasons that probably none of us know. If he’d insisted that Mubarak make meaningful reforms way back then, this might not be happening now.
Michael, I don’t know if you can remove posts, but feel free with the first of my last two…
A view from Israel: http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=205797
I suspect Render will eventually assess the military threat should Mubarak and company fall to the MB…..
…and remember that Egypt under Mubarak was in favor of the blockade of Gaza while the administration was not.
“Victor” sez: “America faces no threat from MB or HZB”
The Ikhwan (MB) says: “The Ikhwan [Muslim Brotherhood] must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and “sabotaging” its miserable house by their hands and by the hands of the believers so that it is eliminated and God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.”
http://www.investigativeproject.org/document/id/20
“Victor, do you think it moderate to release an antisemetic and inflammatory movie in Germany of all places on Holocaust Remembrance Day?”
Of course he does. To Victor, Hitler was a moderate and centrist, an admirable man to be emualted. Note also how Victor demonizes Israel and Jews while he compulsively fellates the genocidal savages of the MB, Hamas and Hez.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12309321
Norway has arrested and deported a young Russian woman who was crowned “Norwegian of the year” after writing a book about her life as an illegal immigrant.
Well, hell yeah! That’s what I’m talking about! Next up: USA deports “Miss America”!
Jeez, fnord… I’m literally left speechless.
Democracy is not easily built in poor countries. GDP per capita in Egypt is around $6,000 which is low but not awful by world standards. The economy is a mix of agriculture, low-tech manufacturing, and services. More worrying is the demographic picture: 80 million Egyptians today but HALF of them under the age of 24. Not good. Where are these young people going to find jobs? Can Egypt double its workforce in the next 25 years. Could be done but they need a heavy dose of liberalism. Egyptians won’t have the luxury to navel-gaze like Iranians for 30 years because they don’t have as much oil. Some cautious optimism.
Craig, Clinton does have the Shah in mind and has not undermined Mubarak to the degree the left wants. If you listen to her latest you can see the struggle in her demeanor. Yes, what is happening on the ground in Egypt does not have the organization of radicals that Iran had in 1979. But Iran doesn’t resemble Iran of 1979 either. I think however we can see where it will likely lead as little in the ME resembles the dynamic in 1979. You are very right about Bush. He never really laid out Liberal Democracy and made simply a big deal about just voting. Writing a coherent and just Constitution is an odyssey in itself and the people must be ready to fight to defend the ideals enshrined. The Japanese and the Germans to a lesser extent weren’t THAT ready…….
Also Craig, Obama went to Egypt from the start and urged its people to move towards reform while battling those who have kidnapped Islam in the name of terror. He has little problem with the MB and had Mubarak seat them. It is clear from polls that Egyptians are driven by far more than jealousy of other Muslim nations (not too many with sterling wealth beyond elites). Beside scarcity of commodities at reasonable prices (hey, just go to Gaza), they are angry at the peace with Israel and and the refusal to move towards Sharia law which the people are bright enough to understand are opposed by the very people giving Mubarak billions in aid.
For decades terrorist groups have been murdering Jews and tourists in the Sinai and in the last few years Iran and Hizb’Allah have been playing hide and seek between special ops, smugglers and the Egyptian forces in the deserts. In the 1980s Egypt was getting its missiles from North Korea.
Turkey, a NATO member, has little problem with the MB these days. And look at the silent Press in the West when Turkey delivered the latest Valley of the Wolves on Holocaust Remembrance Day with a special screening for Germans. These strategic consideration weren’t in play in 1979 nor the proliferation of nuclear weapons or unprovoked shelling by North Korea preparing for further nuclear tests. Of course the US didn’t owe China a few trillion either.
The ice is much thinner now, so forgive my dot board. So far the connected dots on it do not paint a very pretty picture. The Shah was about preventing the advance of the Red Army into the Gulf. And Frankly, there is just as valid a thought when comparing the logic to the implications of Iran II or Taliban II standing in control of Egyptian armies. If Mubarak flees to Saudi Arabia, accommodation with Iran, the scraping of the peace treaties are less than years away…..which explains likely US support of Mubarak behind the scenes….
So goes Lebanon and Egypt to Hizzie-like creatures, so goes the ME…….
So goes Lebanon and Egypt to Hizzie-like creatures, so goes the ME…….
Which appears to be what a majority of people in those countries want, Max.
We might be able to change their minds with massive amounts of direct aid to them, but America isn’t rally in a giving mood right now.
Carter 1: Iran blows up.
Carter 2: Egypt blows up. (ya know who is Carter 2, don’t ya?)
Coincidence?
Joe – The World Bank puts Egypt’s GDP per capita at $2270 (2009 figure). I read a similar figure this morning somewhere in an article or op-ed piece.
I was quite surprised.
Dikehopper
you’re right. I got the $6,000 figure from the CIA website and it is at purchasing power parity, which can be misleading. $2,300 is positively worrisome and is probably not conducive to a democratic outcome.
How can 2/3rd’s of the Egyptian population be illiterate?
How come Mubarak’s crack military can’t handle street demonstrators made up of middle class kids?
Were there really food subsidies in place that kept the poor fed? And, with oil subsidies too? But the money’s run out.
How will tourism survive? Did it in Beirut?
If the Egyptian military couldn’t win this one for Mubarak, who is 82-years old. Then, exactly, what sorts of fighting skills does this military have? No one noticed how Ayatollah Komeini destroyed Iran’s military when the Shah fell?
Between Tunisia and Egypt, who gets their tourism business up and running again, first?
Max, you need to lay off the caffeine for a few days and try to look at the bright side. This is what we wanted back in 2001, isn’t it? Or at least, what we thought we wanted. And we didn’t even have to invade, which saved us boatloads of money. It’s a glass-half-full scenario
Smart-assery aside, Max, I can tell how upset you are by this apparent disaster for US foreign policy in the ME. But you know what? I have difficulty believing that Arabs are any happier about their circumstances we are.
stype (re Islamic thugs taking over the ME),
We might be able to change their minds with massive amounts of direct aid to them…
No we couldn’t. They’d just take the money and buy cigarettes and beer.
…but America isn’t rally in a giving mood right now.
Well, lets hope they don’t change their minds then because America’s going to be in even less of a giving mood if we get kicked to the curb, again.
No we couldn’t. They’d just take the money and buy cigarettes and beer.
It’s worth a try.
America has been spending three times Afghanistan’s GDP each year on military operations in that country and has gotten nowhere.
What would happen if we just quadrupled their incomes instead and made it contingent on good behavior?
Joe – Hmm… I just looked up definitions of “purchasing power parity.” Maybe the $6,000 per capita figure *is* the more significant one in terms of living standards. But I ain’t no economist.
“They’d just take the money and buy cigarettes and beer.”
Or, in the words of an unnamed, jubilant Iraqi:
“Democracy! Whiskey! Sexy!”
We’ll all just learn to be brave…
Haha… Assange called himself a Libertarian on 60 minutes. He even mentioned Jefferson….
I’ll have less coffee this week.
Hasn’t reached Syria yet, but things are getting interesting
Anti-government protests break out in Sudan:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/01/2011130131451294670.html
“I worry that the 59 percent of Egyptians who prefer Islamists to modernizers are going to have to learn the hardest way possible–as the Iranians have and the people of Gaza are learning right now–that modernizers are better. There may not be another way. ”
—-
You interpreted the survey incorrectly.
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
The question was if the people saw a conflict in the country between fundamentalists and modernizers … AND if you see a conflict than which side do you support?.
In Egypt, 31% of the people said that they see a struggle within their country and 59% of those 31% who answered yes to that question side with the fundamentalists.
It’s 59% of 31%. Not 59% of the entire Egyptian population.
From the Telegraph: “The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.”
How will this play with other Islamists and
Barry Rubin has a clear-thinking column in The Jerusalem Post:
Egypt crisis worst disaster since Iran’s revolution
By BARRY RUBIN
01/31/2011 03:23
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=205962
Rubin includes this morsel, seemingly for “Victor”:
“And here is Rajab Hilal Hamida, a member of the Brotherhood in Egypt’s parliament, who proves that you don’t have to be moderate to run in elections: “From my point of view, bin Ladin, al-Zawahiri and al-Zarqawi are not terrorists in the sense accepted by some. I support all their activities, since they are a thorn in the side of the Americans and the Zionists… [On the other hand,] he who kills Muslim citizens is neither a jihad fighter nor a terrorist, but a criminal murderer. We must call things by their proper names!” A study of the Brotherhood members of Egypt’s parliament shows how radical they have been in their speeches and proposals.”
Personally I don’t see Mubarak lasting, and that the likely longer term winner is the Ikhwan. A non-worst case outcome might be for Mubarak and his National Democratic Party to call for and ensure new elections later in the year, which might allow the chaos to reduce and actual non-”Islamists” to have a chance.
The Saudis and others in The Arab League would probably be happier with ElBaradei. However, if he becomes the next official leader, ElBaradei might well become merely a figurehead for the Ikhwan, with whom he is now negotiating, to make them more palatable to western aid donors. He has apparently already stated that he will “recognize” Hamas (the “Palestinian” branch of the Ikhwan) as the rulers of Gaza and end all sanctions against them.
Based on his performance at the UN in reference to Iran’s nuclear program, ElBaradei in Egypt will not be good for the non-Muslim world however.
Max – Already have, or more exactly it’s always under assessment.
Near as I can tell the Egyptian army is still cooperating with the IDF regarding the Sinai agreements. The IDF confirmed that it had agreed to an additional 150 Egyptian troops to reinforce the Gaza border region. For the moment it would appear that the Rafah Crossing is controlled only by HAMAS.
Noting that everywhere else the Egyptian military is not exactly doing as it is exactly saying, and that the 1st RG ARM Div has now had time to disperse its units to their various key locations within Cairo…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmidb92Hi-c
It doesn’t matter if Hosni stays or goes (and he likely will go), for all intents and purposes the revolution is over. The military has already won (and the Interior Minister has disappeared along with most of the police).
The Egyptian military is not the slightest bit interested in losing its sole source for all those awesome American fighting machines and even less interested in pursuing new replacement military contracts with East Bloc nations. Therefor the Egyptian military is most likely to back whomever offers it the best opportunity to maintain those existing arms deals. (and the top brass of the Egyptian military has got to be going nuts trying to figure out exactly what the waffling Obama administration wants them to do.)
For now…
THROWING
BONES,
R
#109 David – If you caught that error on the 59% yourself, that was pretty good. I tip my hat to you. (I became aware of it yesterday on another blog – that pointed it out as a mistake by Barry Rubin.)
So it was Barry Rubin’s mistake (or perhaps just a poor choice of wording?), not Michael Totten’s.
I’d have to look back, but I don’t think it was very significant to the overall picture?
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1615926.php/Behind-the-scenes-Israeli-Palestinian-backing-of-Mubarak-Roundup
Thanks Render, appreciate you updating the military situation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12324646 Sudan
Just one cup
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162811.html radicals on the moon
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/162764.html delivery systems before the bomb……working with North Korea
“Commenting on Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ remark that North Korea is “becoming a direct threat to the United States” during his visit to China some two weeks ago, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said Wednesday, “By that he doesn’t mean at this very moment. But given their pursuit of both the nuclear weapons and their ballistic-missile capabilities, that he sees them being a direct threat not within five years, but sooner than that.”
Chosun IIbo
Del, that sounds correct…..
later all…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/48481.html
can’t leave this out
The Sunni’s embrace the first 4 caliphs (Abu Bakr, Omar, Uthman, & Ali). Ali and his son, Hasan, were both accepted by the Sunnis, and they don’t hold animosity toward the descendents of the prophet. The Shiites on the other hand, do not accept the first 3 caliphs succeeding Mohammad, and feel that the Caliphate was hijacked from the true descendents. The first major Caliphate which succeeded for several hundred years with it’s capital in Damascus were the descendents of Uthman (the Ummayad dynasty). Ali served briefly as a caliph and was assassinated – his son, Hussein (also Shiite) staged a brief rebellion and was killed in battle by the Ummayads.
So while the Sunnis can not disown the descendents of the Prophet, the Shiite can and do curse the Sunni Caliphs who robbed the legitimate descendents inheritance of the Caliphate.
Erdogan to curry favor with Iran (Turks being Sunni), recently announced observing Ashura (Shiite holiday mourning the death of Hussein, the Prophet’s grandson. You will never find a Shiite naming their children Omar or Uthman, while you do find Sunnis named Ali and Hassan (I haven’t heard Hosseins).
My conclusion: It’s called: The Caliphate
Help to Egypt should be accompanied by a demand that they slowly change their education system and stop the incitement against the Christians and Jews. We have a “cold” peace w/ Egypt where Israelis vacation in Sinai and Egyptians NEVER go to Israel.
el Baradei shielded Iran and we, the USA with Bush and today with Obama have let this gentleman mantain his job at IAEA?
el Baradei has had friendly dealings with the MB also.
I do agree that to let Mubarak go and not have a strong leader in place is dangerous for the Western World and Asia. And I do agree that el Baradei may not be the proper person, one of his supporters is the Muslim Brotherhood.
Tunisia just welcomed the MB from exile. That dosn’t bode well for the secular institutions of Tunisia. The MB has all the time in the world to slowly penetrate gov. institutions.
Finally: Let’s not forget that Israel has nukes.
Must read:
http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2010/10/muslim-brotherhood-declares-war-on-america
MB’s people are telegraphing their moves. MB recently changed phase to overt political and revolutionary activism focused on anti-US and anti-Israel activity.
Baradai left his job at the IAEA a while ago.
He did attempt a baptism by water canon this weekend in an effort to gain some credibility with the “people”.
I hear 40,000 prisoners have broken out. Earthquake not needed…
I suppose that of all the Americans here I am the only one who has protested with Egypt’s pro-democracy activists against the Mubarak government. There is something non-Egyptians just aren’t grasping, which is that while a despot may be predictable, and some fantasize controllable, a true democracy activist must accept that the product of a democratic government isn’t for foreigners to dictate to but a partner to negotiate with. The world changes, the people become empowered, and old “comfortable” relationships between foreigners and people in power get thrown out the window. Don’t let your grasp for the comfortable past keep an entire nation from reaching for a more hopeful future.
Solomon2, I assume you aren’t Egyptian and if that’s the case I gotta ask: What in the fuck are you doing involving yourself in revolutionary movements in other countries? I’d take a pretty damn dim view of foreigners getting directly involved in a domestic effort to topple the US government, and I highly doubt that people in other countries are any different on that.
And its especially annoying for you to be lecturing others about a people’s right to self-determination while bragging about how you personally are doing your utmost to intervene in their internal affairs.
“What in the fuck are you doing involving yourself in revolutionary movements in other countries?”
We give Egypt billions of dollars a year. I want my tax dollars to fund free countries, not dictatorships. When the opportunity came to protest Mubarak putting the screw on free expression and political organization a few years back I did so. link.
The Egyptians at the demo welcomed my presence. It is quite a stretch to claim that I, an ordinary American with no personal, government, or business connections, could possibly “intervene in their internal affairs.”
We give Egypt billions of dollars a year. I want my tax dollars to fund free countries, not dictatorships.
That’s not your call to make.
When the opportunity came to protest Mubarak putting the screw on free expression and political organization a few years back I did so.
And you’re very proud of it, obviously. Are you aware that it’s criminal to go to other countries and try to overthrow their governments? Are you aware that if you’d been caught and charged that it would have been an embarrassing international incident?
The Egyptians at the demo welcomed my presence.
Of course they did. That doesn’t make it either moral or legal. Especially when you’re in here right now telling everyone to mind their own business.
It is quite a stretch to claim that I, an ordinary American with no personal, government, or business connections, could possibly “intervene in their internal affairs.”
I suppose “foreign fighters” in Iraq and Afghanistan could make the same claim, no?
Craig: Solomon2, I assume you aren’t Egyptian and if that’s the case I gotta ask: What in the fuck are you doing involving yourself in revolutionary movements in other countries?
The French helped us with ours.
“If anyone is to blame, it is Bush. Unlike Obama, he PROMISED to promote democracy in his second state of the union address. He made that formal US policy. And while he did push Mubarak to reform his government quite hard for a while, he backed off pretty quick for reasons that probably none of us know. If he’d insisted that Mubarak make meaningful reforms way back then, this might not be happening now.”
Mubarak responded to Bush by staging elections but throwing competent and true democrats in jail. So the elections were between Mubarak’s cronies, the M-B gang, and a few not very competent democrats – and the election results were, as usual, available at police stations a week before the poll itself. Bush acquiesced to Mubarak’s “It’s the Muslim Brotherhood or me!” blackmail and backed down, whereupon Mubarak tightened the screws even further.
Well Craig, this guy doesn’t give a crap about consequences and thinks pro-Democracy is an election. Too bad he’s not in Syria or Iran. I guess public school education in America isn’t very good.
Quite amazing really. Democrats were pushing human rights under Clinton. He bombed Serbia and Saddam. Then Bush took over the Internationalist cause with his myopic understanding of Liberal Democracy. Onward Afghanistan and Iraq. The Left cried about the stupidity. They laughed at Gaza. Now the Left has taken the ball back and are advocating the same stupid approach pretending they don’t know the potential unintended consequences. Of course they do.
Meanwhile the Marines sit off the coast to save these sorry asses.
“Are you aware that it’s criminal to go to other countries and try to overthrow their governments?”
The demonstration was in D.C. in front of the Egyptian embassy. As is customary, we kept within the lines set by the police. And if I had been arrested for some reason or the other, it wouldn’t have created any stir at all.
I used to do the same thing in front of the Soviet Embassy. Do you think if I went to Moscow today anybody would consider me a criminal?
Judging by the pace of events so far the outcome is still fluid.
Mubarak maintains a degree of control over the army and esp the AF – but only as long as he does not order them to use force on the protestors.
It seems to me that the army knows where the bread is buttered and wants to maintain the $billions in annual military aid plus food aid from us. Many of the officers have contacts with the US counterparts. They are a potential force for stability, in that the army could install a government that allows greater public involvement while maintaining a relationship with the US and preventing MB donimance.
They are looking to the US and Obama for signals on how to proceed. If the US clearly communicates it they will oust Mubarak.
The problem is Obama does not seem to notice or care, or if he does, he does not know how to communicate clearly under what circumstances Egypt will keep getting our foreign and mil aid $. Vagueries from the press secretary are not going to convince the officers to boot Mubarak. We need another speech in Cairo!
MJT: The French helped us with ours.
The French were at war with the British anyway
Solomon2: The demonstration was in D.C. in front of the Egyptian embassy.
Well, that’s something entirely different. Apologies for my misunderstanding of what you were saying.
An excellent, well-balanced article about Egypt by an Egyptian himself:
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/4548
Abelard Lindsey, that was a very good article and I think he’s generally right when it comes to the sentiment he’s expressing. However, there are flaws in many of the arguments he puts forward to make his case. For instance, this:
The US has a long history of supporting convenient dictators. America did so with the Shah of Iran, who rewarded American patronage with sites for US military bases useful for force projection.
The US had no military bases in Iran, nor any military forces at all. America’s interest in Iran was primarily based on fear it would end up on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain after World War II wound down. Maybe not a big deal, but the best example of the US *actually* doing what he states the US was doing here is the Philippines with supporting Marcos. We lost what was probably the most important US Naval base in the world when Corazon Aquino’s “People Power” revolution swept him away. I’m not sure why he used Iran instead of this much more obvious and much more appropriate case, but I suspect his reasons relate to Islam more than the foreign policy of the united States
Also, he doesn’t mention Egypt’s stance towards the US prior to the 1973 Yom Kippur war. He doesn’t talk about the desire on the part of Egyptian elites (led by Sadat) to switch Soviet sponsorship to American sponsorship. He acts like Egyptians were just sitting there minding it’s own business and the US just showed up and bribed them. That’s a pretty big error in my opinion, because whatever leadership emerges in Egypt as a result of the current crisis is going to be faced with the same kinds of hard choices that Sadat was faced with. There are valid reasons why all those dictators (which the US did not create) made the choices they made. And there are valid reasons why the US cut deals with them, despite the fact we didn’t find them very appealing characters. Some of those issues (like the Cold War) no longer exist. Others such as Israel (and now Iran) very much do. If the US is put in a position where it has to choose between Israel and an Iranian backed Egypt under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood, nobody should act surprised about the choice the US makes. We’ve made the same choice before, and will again. I just hope all the involved parties can set aside their idealism at least enough to be semi-realistic about what’s really at stake here.
Also:
The protests so far haven’t had a religious or anti-American bent.
I think that’s be very carefully “managed” this time, because there was quite a bit of anti-Americanism last time around.
Craig, much of what you say is valid. However, it in no way justifies the double-standard that the U.S. has about the emergence of representative governments in the middle-east as compared to South East Asia and Latin America. Many of the dire predictions being made about Egypt were made about Indonesia when Soeharto was removed from power in 1998. Whatever choices the Egyptians make for themselves, they have as much right to make those choices as the Indonesians made theirs in 1998. The U.S. has no more business involving itself in internal Egyptian affairs today as it did in Indonesian Affairs in 1998.
I am well-aware of the realities of the cold war and the desire to prevent large parts of the world out of Soviet orbit. However, the Soviet Union is long gone and the legitimacy of U.S. intervention in other peoples’ society is no longer justifiable.
Abelard Lindsey, I think I did say I generally agreed with his arguments but was just disputing the way he was making them
…it in no way justifies the double-standard that the U.S. has about the emergence of representative governments in the middle-east as compared to South East Asia and Latin America.
Well, that’s not the nature of America’s double standard in my opinion. I think the double standard comes into play when we say we stand for freedom and democracy while we’re propping up tyrants. We shouldn’t be supporting dictators, period. Short term alliances of necessity should be as close as we get to that, in my opinion.
I don’t really agree with the “double standard” case you make, though. To use the PI again, the US had no reason to believe that everything was going to go south without Marcos. We just stuck with Marcos because he was better for us. I don’t think it’s sound reasoning to try to claim that Muslim countries potentially going Islamist poses no threat to the US, so the circumstances aren’t really all that similar.
The Philippines is such a frustrating case, given what GMA and her “friends” didn’t do for the Filipino people. A friend who grew up around its politics told me “Sadly, we get the best government we can afford.”
“However, it in no way justifies the double-standard that the U.S. has about the emergence of representative governments in the middle-east as compared to South East Asia and Latin America.”
There is no double standard. The US supports democracy when it thinks it can lead to a liberal democracy and denounces it when it thinks it will lead to an illiberal democracy. Take a look at the Palestinian Territories. Hamas was democratically elected, but the US refused to support them because they knew Hamas wasn’t going to be liberal or lead to a more liberal government. Looking at how Hamas has governed Gaza, it’s clear that the US is right.
Craig;
We give money to Eygpt, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. The rest of the middle-east’s tyrants are propping up themselves.
Toady, you’re right that we only give money to the countries we support which don’t have oil (you forgot Yemen by the way). But all of our “friends” in the Arab world get political cover and US backing in the “international community” (which seems to be a synonym for the west) and there’s no price tag that can be put on that. I really don’t understand why we stick with this cold war mentality when it brings us nothing but grief, and violates our ideals at the same time. The Chinese seem to be able to negotiate favorable deals without getting into bed with their partners. What the hell is our problem?