Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is now officially blaming Israel for assassinating former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in downtown Beirut on Valentine’s Day in 2005. I doubt he will convince many people.
I’ve been working in Lebanon on and off for years, and I’ve never once met a single person who thought Israel murdered Hariri. Not even the Hezbollah officials I spoke to before they blacklisted me thought so. Once in a while I met a Hezbollah supporter who said he didn’t know who killed Hariri and silently left open the possibility that Israel might have done it, but that’s the furthest even any of them were willing to go.
Hariri was one of the least anti-Israel Arab leaders on earth. His vision for Lebanon was one of peace and prosperity, not terrorism and war. Jerusalem had no reason at all to want him out of the picture. The Syrian- and Iranian-led Resistance Bloc, on the other hand, needed him out of the way, dead, or at least suppressed.
Almost everyone in Lebanon assumed from the very beginning that the Assad regime in Damascus ordered the hit, which is why Syria’s military occupation was terminated almost at once by a tremendous wave of multi-sectarian wrath. Most people, including me, didn’t entertain the idea for long that Hezbollah might be responsible, not because Hezbollah wouldn’t or couldn’t have done it, but because Syria had the greater of motives.
Prof. Barry Rubin has a good post on his blog, RubinReports.
”The Week Lebanon Became Part of the Anti-Western Axis & West Governments Didn’t Notice.” http://rubinreports.blogspot.com/2010/08/week-lebanon-became-part-of-iran-syria.html
My question to Mr Totten is what do you think is American foreign policy in the region, the larger picture? I’m very curious to hear your analysis.
Terry: My question to Mr Totten is what do you think is American foreign policy in the region, the larger picture?
It’s an incoherent mess, and I don’t even know where to begin.
The Number ONE priority of American foreign policy under the current administration has been the need to show everyone, to convince everyone, to persuade everyone that THIS ADMINISTRATION will not be beholden to Israel and the “Israel Lobby,” that America is independent, that America can and will act in its own interest.
Achieve that, so the policy experts advised (with all the zeal they could muster and backed with impressively confabulated data mixed with a hefty dose of selective analysis), and you’ve practically won the battle.
There are, alas, several problems to that “expert” point of view, chief among them, in a nutshell, being that the experts greatly inflated the grand delusion while deciding to put their faith in the claims of zealous liars. As a consequence, the administration has made attacking the chimera the cornerstone of its policy. Since then, it’s been focusing on this fatal distraction and hacking away at clouds with all its might.
It’s been GIGO from the get-go. Meanwhile, in the real world….
It’s ironic that Hizbullah would be in such a bad situation exactly when almost the entire world is finally anti-Israel.
What Nasrallah, the complete idiot, did was the best he could have done to help Israel.
#1 Terry Re BR article
Any portrayal of Lebanon or of Lebanese opinion or policy as monolithic is purely idiotic and is a waste of ink. This article is just a ex-ante attempt to justify targeting the entire country in case of war.
Michael, That’s a very scary situation.
I don’t know whether to conclude that a war with Israel is more likely or a full blown civil war.
MJT
I agree that the most likely killers of Hariri are the Shia-Syria-Hezbollah-Iran axis since he represented the other Muslim pole in Lebanon, the Sunni-Saudi pole. But anything is possible. There is a joke told in Beirut that God was describing to a Lebanese the country he was bestowing on him. God was talking of the beautiful snow covered mountains, and the sparkling sea and the fertile plains, and the sweet fruit and milk and honey etc. And the Lebanese says to God, Thank you Lord, but why me, what did I do to deserve this, why are you so good to me? And God answered, Wait before you thank me, wait till I tell you who your neighbors are going to be.
Joe The Rubin article is fairly tame and i believe demonstrates a lot of what is happening there.
I don’t think he is necessarily portraying the Lebanese government as monolithic, but it is remarkable that when one is utterly ruthless and devoid of scruples as hezb’allah and Syria most definitely are; just how much hegemony one can “inspire”.
#5 Joe
Barry Rubin has studied Lebanon for an extremely long time and knows very well what he is talking about. He isn’t a random blogger who doesn’t know what he is talking about.
The point of the article is precisely to point out that while Lebanon has for a number of years exhibited dramatic diversity, with more liberal and democratic factions balancing the extremism of Hizballah and the “resistance bloc”, that voice has been crushed.
The point he is making, and I think (sadly) quite rightly, is that Lebanon essentially HAS become monolithic. Thanks to the abandonment by the West of the liberal forces, they have become so weak as to become irrelevant. They meekly follow the dictats of the radicals.
While I agree with you that the opinions of the Lebanese public as a whole would not neatly fall in line with the radicals, their private opinions are irrelevant so long as the leadership of all the various Lebanese factions act as vassals.
I think Lebanon is hopeless as long as Iran and Syria are not (forgive my language here) castrated.
#2 Michael Totten.
Good answer, I think incoherent accurately describes American foreign policy perfectly. The problem, however, is that the THINK they have a strategy.
Mr Totten, are you familiar with Spengler of the Asia Times Online?
#8 yesjb and #9 Joo-liz
I have reread it. The ‘analysis’ hinges on a few random statements by politicians and on an overeagerness to draw analogies with Turkey, Gaza etc. That’s what pundits do, they love to connect dots even when there are no dots to connect. What else are they going to do, repeat what CNN is saying?
You have two main poles in Lebanon now, the Hariri-Sunni-Saudi pole and the Hezbollah-Syria-Iran pole. The Druze and increasingly the Christians shift back and forth. Israel is almost secondary in this picture, except for Hezbollah to justify its raison d’etre. The main fault line today in the ME is Sunni vs. Shia, not Israel vs. Others. That is the dynamic for the next few years. Anything else is an illusion imho.
MJT: “Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is now officially blaming Israel for assassinating former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in downtown Beirut on Valentine’s Day in 2005. I doubt he will convince many people.
I’ve been working in Lebanon on and off for years, and I’ve never once met a single person who thought Israel murdered Hariri.”
Actually, Hizballahis and Aounis picked up an idea with great enthusiasm.
Granted, I do not know how much they believe in it, but they are trying anyway.
And that is on quarter of the country’s population if not more.
@ Ali: I agree almost 100%. Maybe, just maybe, things could work in Lebanon if the Iranian regime goes into the waste bin of history and support for Hezbollah dries up.
What’s the saying … “the greater the lie, the more that people will believe it”? Well, maybe Nazrallah’s lie was actually too great and people this time won’t/can’t/don’t believe it?
Joe,
Your comments are not contradictory to anything Rubin, Joo-Liz or I have said.
But, as is usually the case, those with the most guns, terror and money tend to call the shots.
There can be resistance as was previously the case and as may yet occur.
That is why I think its a bit of a toss-up as to whether a war with Israel or civil war will occur.
To paraphrase the rabbi in Riddler on the Roof when asked if there was a blessing for the Czar: “May G-d bless and keep the Lebanese……far away from us!”
“Riddler on the Roof?”
You do have a way with the unintentional puns Yesjb.
FIDDLE
STICKS,
R
Render,
Yes, that was totally unintentional but it does have an appropriate aspect
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10944927
Lebanon says screw you Congress….
Make one mistake on top of another on top of another…..
“Our military sources report that the souped-up Bladerunners have a speed of 61/5 MPH. They Russian-made Shkval torpedoes they carry had travel up to 360 knots per hour, the fastest of any comparable torpedo in service today, a speed which defies radar detection.” Debka
Besides the bad English, this sounds more like PressTV and one reason it is hard to take these guys seriously.
What evidence is there that Iran has Shkvals? Their version the Hoot has been tested? Its navigation reliable? And these things are easy to pick up as they are extremely noisy. This potential situation has existed for some time. The alarmist and incorrect declarations here are suspect and serve what purpose?.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=warp-drive-underwater
I checked Russian sources it is not 360 knots but 360 km/h.
Still fast, but almost twice less the speed than Debka claims.
Maybe it is just an error in translation.
Interestingly enough it is capable of carrying nuclear 150 kT trotil equivalent or 210 kg conventional load to the distance of up to 10 km.
Currently there are no known nuclear payloads installed.
Impressive thing.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3935077,00.html
This is getting pathetic. Now the son is going the “maybe it was Israel” circus.
Something tells me there may have been essentially a bloodless coup behind the scenes with Hizbollah now running everything. Saad Hariri has come out and said that he supports Nasrallah’s investigation and added that should Israel decline to summon for investigation the witnesses likely to appear in Nasrallah’s “proof,” the Jewish State will be considered in his eyes as guilty, and not merely suspect. Clearly Hariri Jr. doesn’t believe that Israel was behind this (the man isn’t stupid) and thus something else is compelling him.
Yaeli: Clearly Hariri Jr. doesn’t believe that Israel was behind this (the man isn’t stupid) and thus something else is compelling him.
Hezbollah’s bayonet in his back.
The Sunnis on the street won’t go along quite so easily. One small upside to this is that they’ll see how counterproductive knee-jerk anti-Zionism can be.
MJT, some Lebanese might start to believe that Israel did kill Hariri. Difficult to believe what the son just said.
In Iraq the biggest PR challenge America confronted was the widely believed conspiracy theory that America secretly backed the Iraqi resistance against the elected GoI, ISF and Iraqi people. Even many college educated Iraqi Army officers believed this.
In Afghanistan the biggest PR challenge confronting ISAF, NATO and UNAMA is the widely believed conspiracy theory that they secretly backed the Taliban against the elected GIRoA, ANSF and Afghan people. Many educated mid grade ANA officers say this openly. Referring to viscerally anti Taliban ANA officers.
Many Pakistanis [especially college educated Pakistanis] still believe that the Jews did 9/11 and escorted 4 thousand Jews out of the WTC before the attack. Dead serious.
What makes you confident that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, may peace be upon him, will not be able to persuade Lebanese Sunni Arabs, Lebanese Christians and Lebanese Druze that Israel killed Hariri? For all his many faults, Nasrallah is an exceptional orator with a flair for the over dramatic.
Perhaps the long term goal is to convince Lebanese that the Arab League, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, France, Europe, America and Israel collaborated to kill Nasrallah. Nasrallah has PR down cold.
Anan: What makes you confident that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, may peace be upon him, will not be able to persuade Lebanese Sunni Arabs, Lebanese Christians and Lebanese Druze that Israel killed Hariri?
Everyone in Lebanon knows what happened.
And you really ought not say “peace be upon him” about a terrorist. What the heck’s the matter with you, anyway? Seriously, Anand. If you can’t figure out how absolutely ridiculous what you just wrote is, it makes me a lot less inclined to defend you when Gary Rosen (etc) levels his accusations.
MJT, can’t we have fun with Nasrallah? The best way to deal with Nasrallah is the way Andy Samberg dealt with Ahmadinejad:
http://www.wat.tv/video/saturday-night-live-iran-so-far-sijz_2h5t1_.html
:LOL:
Transform Nasrallah into a Mookie I lost my wookie Muqtada Atari character. Gradually Lebanese Shiites will start to see Sayyed Nasrallah as a naive outdated buffoon and shift to supporting other Lebanese currents such as Amal.
This is what the Dems did with Pres Ford, VP Dan Quayle, President Bush and Mrs. Sarah Palin. Guess what, it sometimes works.
All of us need to learn to chill.
Hope you are right that Lebanese will not fall for bizarre conspiracy theories. Might be interesting to find out Andrew Exum’s, Aram’s, and Ajami’s perspectives.
To change the topic, my understanding is that America gives the LAF $600 million in military grants per year. Might formally inviting Iran and Iraq to join the international community in training, advising, equipping and funding the LAF be a good idea.
If Iran declines the offer, then Khamenei will be revealed before the Lebanese people.
Hope you are right that Lebanese will not fall for bizarre conspiracy theories.
Well, I didn’t say that. There are plenty of bizarre conspiracy theories in Lebanon. Not as many as in, say, Egypt, but more than in the United States.
Still, everyone knows the Resistance Bloc murdered Rafik Hariri, and everyone knew it the minute it happened.
Michael, I can’t share your optimism over the average Lebanese and their views of Israel. I had a Leb Christian friend for about ten years. He hated the Syrians and at times praised the IDF, especially when he thought it could be useful to Lebanese Christians and their Sunni allies to deal with Hizb and Syria. However, he was also quite upset – not without reason – with Ehud Barak’s night flight from Lebanon in 2000. He also became enraged when an Israeli bomb inadvertently killed five Christians in north Beirut in 2006. Finally, in 2008 he quoted to me the theory that Nasrallah is now advancing, and even claimed to prove that the weapon used to shoot Hariri was one that ‘only the Mossad and a few others used.’ Well, this guy is a character, but I was amazed at his rapid transformation from pro-Israel to echoer of this particular conspiracy theory.
“And you really ought not say “peace be upon him” about a terrorist”
Once again revealing his true, genocidal nature. And then revealing it again by trying to weasel out, claiming he was having “fun”.