I’ve finally finished my book, a first-person narrative account of revolution, terrorism, and war in the Middle East, and it will be published by Encounter Books in Spring 2011. Later this year you’ll be able to pre-order signed copies directly from me.
At the end of this week I’m heading back to the Middle East, this time to bring you pre-war coverage from Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. (Unless, that is, the next war pops off while I’m there, in which case I’ll be bringing you actual war coverage.)
Predicting events in the Middle East is a mug’s game since almost anything can happen over there, but it feels a little like 1967 in the region right now
Israel seems the most logical place to go as a foreign correspondent right now. Most likely it will be the epicenter of the next round of conflict. Iran threatens to destroy the Jewish state with nuclear weapons, Hezbollah in Lebanon has a more formidable arsenal than any other terrorist army on earth, the blockade of Hamas is falling apart, and even Syria might end up in Jerusalem’s crosshairs. And this time I finally expect to go inside Gaza and take a look around for myself. The West Bank is by all accounts in better shape than ever before, but the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip live under the totalitarian rule of the Taliban of the Eastern Mediterranean.
I also have some travel pieces from my last trip to the former Soviet Union that have been in the works for some time, and they will be published here shortly.
Thanks to Roger L. Simon for inviting me over to Pajamas Media. It’s good to be here.
I’ve found cheap places to stay in the Middle East, but airfare is expensive during the summer, and I’m on an extremely tight budget. I can’t work as a foreign correspondent without serious help from my readers to cover travel expenses, so please help me out.
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Michael Totten
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Many thanks in advance.
I could be dead wrong, but I don’t see a war in the cards this summer, because I just don’t see what any of the regional players has to gain. One has to believe that Israel has spent every waking moment since summer 2006 practicing for the next war, and that it will not be like the last one. The alarming number of missiles pointed at Israel can only effect the civilian sector, it won’t change the military balance of power – that’s where the whole assymetry thing works against them. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime will face certain destruction if they launch a missile attack against Israel. Will they really do so to advance Iranian ambitions? It’s hard to believe. And America surely has Israel’s back in the Persian Gulf, with the huge naval presence there. And it will be a lot easier politically for America to play a defensive role.
If there is a war, than I believe MJT’s comparison to 1967 is apt, because I believe it will be a complete debacle for the other side, that will permanently change the landscape for the better. Staring down the barrel of the American gun, Iran may have to sit on its hands while Israel systematically destroys its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. And the whole Arab world will be on the U.S. side, with Syria probably sitting it out on the sidelines. Thus weakened, the world may then be able to deal with the Iranian nuclear program, possibly even without a military strike. Iran has a lot more to fear than Israel does.
It may be a fairy tale, but then again, the result of the 1967 war would have seemed like a fairy tale in the period leading up to the war.
LOL MarkC, that is an incredibly rosy view of the Middle East.
And Michael, why does it take so long to publish finished books? Books about this subject get dated pretty quickly.
What!!! Did you actually write “Iran threatens to destroy the Jewish state with nuclear weapons”? Look, I know the foolish President of Iran gave you guys a gift by saying “The regime occupying Jerusalem will disappear from the pages of time, just as the Soviet Union and South Africa’s Apartheid Regimes did.” I suppose those who pay for your trip to Israel would like you to twist that a lot and make it seem Iran would like to be the agent of that disappearance, and I can swallow that; but let’s be honest: they have never said they would like to destroy Israel with nukes simply because they claim they are not even making them!! How could they be saying they will use nukes on Israel when insisting they aren’t making nukes? I know you have your talking points, but as long as you want to call yourself a journalist, you need to recognize the difference between distorting facts to a desired end and simply lying.
Wow, one-stop shopping –my two most important daily reads all in one place now! Congratulations on the ‘move!’ Hope when you are here you’ll have a bit of time in your schedule for me to treat you to coffee and a sharing of far too many cigarettes again –it’s been far too long!
And hey Mark C, you know the 2006 war hit us between the eyes like a bolt out of the blue. We’re all right edgy that a war might break out this summer because the elements are all there much more visibly than they were in 2006. Will there or won’t there be is a frequent topic conversation round here.
MarkC.
Suggest you read an article by Caroline Glick, ”A War on Who’s Terms?”
http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2010/07/a-war-on-whos-terms.php
Indeed, comparing this to pre-1967 is accurate.
While impossible to predict the exact date of the coming war, war is inevitable.
The only question is who will attack first – a preemptive Israeli strike is not at all a certainty. But, any incident can escalate.
Also of interest is an article by Reuel Marc Gerecht which appeared in the Weekly Standard, ”Should Israel Bomb Iran?”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/should-israel-bomb-iran
The next war with Hezbollah is going to be a very bad one for everyone.
If Hezbollah missiles reach Tel Aviv (and presumably they do have this capability) there will be pressure on Israeli leaders to abandon all restraint and do whatever is necessary to stop them ASAP, and that will mean serious collateral damage in Lebanon.
Remember that song by Bob Dylan? The Neighborhood Bully?
“The neighborhood bully just lives to survive
He’s criticized and condemned for being alive
He’s not supposed to fight back, he’s supposed to have thick skin
He’s supposed to lay down and die when his door is kicked in
He’s the neighborhood bully”
Point 1: A war is unlikely because missile technology changed everything. In 1967, the fighting was on the borders once the Arab air forces were destroyed. In 1973 and 1982, Arab air forces were shown to be no match to the US equipped better trained Israeli air force. Israeli cities and assets were not threatened. Now they are vulnerable to retaliation.
Point 2: Israel won’t destroy Hamas and Hezbollah until it knows what will take their place. In the case of Hamas, it is easy, the Palestinian Authority. But with Hezbo, the answer is far from obvious. Israel may not want to disrupt a (mostly) quiet northern border. Solidifying authority on that border took over three decades.
Point 3: A war with Iran would mean Israel at war with a non Arab actor for the first time. Perhaps not the wisest of steps.
If you pass through the Shiloh neighborhood, be glad to talk to you about settlements Jewish communities.
Michael,
Congratulations on finishing the book! I’m excited to order up a copy, and I’m glad you are back on the road. I’m also looking forward to those dispatches from the former USSR. When you first went, I sent my friend (who loves all things formerly soviet) a link to your blog telling her to keep an eye out for posts, but they’ve been slow in coming. You did get a couple out (at least the one on Romania I clearly remember), but I’m glad to hear the others are coming out.
MarkC:
I disagree, and think the Hizb/Iran/Syria/Hamas (well… maybe not Hamas), axis will think they have plenty to gain. There are two issues converging now to increase war potential.
First is the results of the Special Tribunal on Lebanon are expected to be announced soon, and if Hizballah is pegged by it, Lebanese tensions will shoot sky high, meaning Hizballah might want to trigger a war to distract attention.
Second, Iran’s nuclear program is under unprecedented (not as strong as they should be but still unprecedented) sanctions. If Iran begins to feel any sort of bite, or if they think they are close to the endgame, or even if they want to head off some of the covert-ops being run against them, they could easily order Hizballah to spark a conflagration and seize the world’s attention.
I doubt Syria will get involved directly unless Israel drags them in, but either way, it would be an incredibly dangerous situation.
Just as Israel has been re-training and improving since the 2006 war, so has Lebanon and Syria. I think it is a deadly mistake to underestimate them. They have been on the losing end for far too long to not have learned a thing or two. While many commentators have a tendency to dismiss Hizballah and Syria as dead meat next to the awesome might of the IDF, I really hope the IDF hasn’t also taken that view. I’ve been reading up on the Six Day War and Yom Kippur War enough to know that a huge contributor to their success was weakness on the Arab side — which is not something to be counted on forever. Beyond that, the Six Day War was so magnificent because the Israelis overestimated their enemies, and prepared to face the worst. The Yom Kippur War came as such as a surprise and was so devastating because of the very mentality that the Arabs are weak and Israel can sweep them aside. I hope today the IDF is prepared for the worst, and from friends in the IDF, I’m not so sure they are (I sincerely hope they are wrong).
As for the argument that the enemy axis would avoid war because in the they face certain destruction… well, let’s just say I once had someone tell me the exact same thing about the Gaza war. “Hamas couldn’t have wanted war because they knew they would have their asses handed to them”. He was trying to refute the point that Hamas ended the ceasefire, declared war, and greatly increased their rocket launching to over 75 rockets and mortars per day, before the onset of the war.
Hizballah and Hamas aren’t deterred by the thought of widespread destruction. In fact, they covet it, but they are likely to be careful to time it for maximum advantage to themselves. They are extremely skilled at turning world opinion and using MSM to their advantage. All they need do is to survive until an international ceasefire is imposed. The more damage to Lebanon, the better they feel their political situation post-war. It’s a sadistic way of looking at a war, but it’s worked for them so far!
MJT, I don’t see why Israel is the place for journalists to be; right now it’s kind of static there. On the other hand Egypt is a huge powder keg, the populace seething with resentment towards the government and Westerners. Turkey must wrestle with the new anti-Israel policy that their president is trying to bend the country toward, the anxiety of the Gulf States regarding Iran is becoming more pronounced every day, and the Lebanese must wonder what will happen if the U.N. decides to break civilian human-shield barriers and disarm Hezbollah’s fortified villages.
Congrats Michael…….
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10682693
Its a game over positioning assets…..
Oh, and Michael, please be careful in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas is just as capable as Hizballah when it comes to investigating and intimidating reporters.
It feels to me like a pre-war period as well, but for a completely different reason. Without any implication of cause-and-effect, I’ve noticed that just before a lull is shattered, internal Israeli religious conflicts threaten to boil over, and seems to be going on right now- a woman arrested at the Wall for carrying a Torah, the Conversion bill in the Knesset, Haredi vs. Modern Orthodox tensions and politics in Beit Shemesh, and I’m sure there are other issues that haven’t bubbled up to my attention. It has me nervous on multiple fronts.
(Some) of the opinionated folks here might want to take a look at this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66D5I620100714
I believe that a long war would be Iran’s response to an attack on it, and that while initial momentum would be in favour of the US and Israel, in the long run the prospect of ‘victory’ is very unlikely. Not unless Americans cease being Americans and sign on in droves to enforce a bloody, decades-long occupation of Iran proper.
What NEXT war? When did the constant state of war break out into peace?
It never did, most Israelis are born while their country is in a state of war, so I ask again, “What NEXT war?” perhaps we can classify the Gaza ongoing conflict as a ‘police action’, but it’s still a war. They still hold Galid Shalit!
Congrats on the new book! I’ll get one when I can. And support to your efforts will come one of these days.
Military groups in Gaza are capable of kidnapping reporters, and have done so on more than one occasion, even with reporters who were friendly towards the Palestinian cause(Alan Johnston), and even Israeli Arab reporters (sorry, I don’t have a reference).
Please be careful. Your report from Gaza would be a fascinating read, but it’s not worth your life. You don’t want to publish your next book in 2018 entitled ‘My years with Gilad Shalit’.
MarkC: If there is a war, than I believe MJT’s comparison to 1967 is apt, because I believe it will be a complete debacle for the other side, that will permanently change the landscape for the better.
Yes, I agree. And similarly, if there is another war it may also be a result of political miscalculations.
Or, if the Iranian regime finds itself tinkering it might start a conflagration via Hezbollah in order to strengthen itself and or go down fighting.
“…could easily involve a number of countries at once—Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Gaza.”
Add the United States to that, a couple of weeks back Mexico arrested Hezbollah leader Jameel Nasr in Tijuana, right next door to San Diego. A much maligned Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC) recently posited the theory, labeled a “a wild, intertwined conspiracy theory” by the left, that Iranian agents are traveling to Venezuela, learning Spanish, then using their education to sneak into America through Mexico. Jameel Nasr recently spent a month in Venezuela. As long ago as 2008 a House Homeland Security Committee report warned of Hezbollah agents caught trying to enter the US from the southern border and law enforcement across the nation have busted up illegal cigarette smugglers with ties to Hamas and Hezbollah. How many sleeper agents are here and what mayhem would they unleash if Iran gives the go ahead?
I would like you to visit the Gulf countries. See what’s really going on there, and what they really think.
Looking forward to the new book. Take care of yourself overthere!
Once in Israel how does one find you? If you care to talk much to talk about. At least about OSU.
There is a real risk with a force like Hezbollah that if they are not sent to do mischief, they will go out and find it on their own.
The tactical aspect of the war will tend to drive the strategy and it should be interesting to see if Israel can find a way to avoid the “rope-a-dope” failure of 2006. If Israel has a high energy beam weapon, they might be able to ignore the low-powered rockets while swatting the big ones. Nevertheless, weapons with enough range to strike Tel Aviv require significantly more infrastructure and IRG experts, so more stakes will be in play on both sides if the medium range weapons get used.
How prepared the ground in South Lebanon is another question. The problem with preparing for precision airstrikes and conventional troops is that it is an observable activity readily trackable by automated systems. You can only keep so many forts a secret, and this time Israel is going to be more knowledgeable of the traps. How that plays out depends to a limited extent on how innovative the IDF is, but much more strongly on how aggressive they are allowed to be by their own ethical authorities. Hezbollah has shown consistent willingness to be despicable in the interests of continued existence. If the IDF is sent across the border with paintball guns, this might go the quite differently than 1967.
Nice! Good deal.
If you need any help on the West Bank send me an email. I used to work for Ma’an and have very good connections around the place–especially send me an email before you go to Nablus. I know a Crazy Mad Wonderful Palestinian to interview.
Fairfarren Sayyed Totten
Congrats on finishting the book-I look forward to reading it!
You might want to consider Egypt-there are reports that Mubarak might have just months to live. Things could get interesting there.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/18/egyptian-leaders-health-on-radar-of-us/?page=1
Michael, If you would like write about the following-
http://fundisrael.org/
and any of the cutting edge groups that are members of the IIF feel free to contact me at
menachembenyakov@yahoo.com
Transportation and accommodations will not present a problem.
MBY
ps- Heres an article on one of the member groups-
http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2010/03/israels-unwavering-guardsmen.php
As for a third reason for war to break out, http://bit.ly/bMFeuj the Iron Dome Missile Defense system just passed its final tests and is estimated to be online by November. That means a) Israel likely won’t want to trigger a war before November (i.e. they are unlikely to attack Iran before then), and b) Hizballah has a good reason to start one before November in order to make full use of their missile armaments, if they plan to use them at all.
Congrats, Michael! I cannot wait to read. Be safe in Gaza and the WB, and I look forward to your reports.
A long way from Winds of Change. I did a guest blog at Donald Sensing’s a while back about the possibility of someone (probably Israel) going to war with Iran. I mentioned Joe Katzman and Winds in the post. So in many ways the old gang still meets.
Good to see you moving up.
Michael –
I’ve been reading your work for a long time now, and have always enjoyed it.
I have a suggestion for a cheap place to stay when you are in Israel – my house!
We live about 5 kilometers from Gaza, near Netivot. We had front row seats for the last war…..
I would priviledged to give you some crash space, feed you some meals, whatever….
If nothing else, I’d be glad to give you my cell phone number and you can call if you need anything.
John
Hi Michael,
So good to see you also at PJM. It is a nice fit and they appear to be a great group of hard hitting journalists that I read daily.
Hope to see you once again in Israel.
Mazel Tov on the new book. Can’t wait to read it.
B’Shalom,
Steve
Congratulations on completing the book, Michael. Knowing the quality of your work, I look forward to your reports.
I wish I could share semite5000′s optimism. Look what a chance Israel had in Gaza in 2009 or Lebanon in 2006. They were there; they had huge armed superiority; they could have cleaned out Hezbollah and Hamas. But look at the result. Worse, in many ways. Both are better armed.
And now, we have Obama, who will probably put huge pressure on Israel either to not fight back or stop before the enemy is destroyed. The only way the coming war should be fought is if Israel is committed to finishing the job, regardless of the cost. Anyway, these days, if an Israeli just looks angry, HRW and AI and the UN are all over it.
Michael,
??
Congratulations on the book.
How about autographed copies for posters
I look forward to reading it.
I too feel that Egypt will be a very interesting place very soon and not in a good way. The Muslim Brotherhood is very strong there and who knows where the armies sympathies will reside once Mubarak is gone.
Civil war? A violent crack-down on the Brotherhood?
As far as a war is concerned, who knows what Israel’s attitude will be.
I think they have learned:
1 Regardless of how restrained they are, they will be condemned
2.If their population centres are hit (which will be intentional and not because of some unguided rocket), they will likely reply without mercy and I think their targets are already picked out.
But I don’t think Hezb’allah will miscalculate again as they did in 2006. They might try something small but probably at the behest of their Iranian masters.
Syria too will probably exercise restraint since there is some feeling that Israeli retaliation will likely aim at a regime change as well as crippling the Syrian military.
There are many possibilities and any prediction needs to be based on more information than most, if not all of us have.
Sorry should have been “army’s” not “armies”
Michael, congratulations on completing the book.
There is one thing I do not get.
Every spring since after 2006 war Hizballahis, Oranges, Aounies begin this talk about “new war this summer”. In addition many here emphasize summer too.
Why? What’s wrong with winter? What is it, frizzing Russia?
Michael,
You ‘PayPal donate’ button did not work for me.
It took me to this address:
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr
which returned this error:
“We were unable to decrypt the certificate id.”
Probably the link above is missing your information – something that comes after the ‘?’. Or PayPal does not recognize your new address.
One thing is for certain. Whatever action occurs (if it does this summer), the actions taken by Israel will be a quite different performance than during the last war.
Is there some kind of computer glitch – I see that my post is still awaiting the moderator since yesterday. This has happened several times this week.
No big deal but I figured you should be aware of the problem.
Thanks.
Leo
In the summer, it’s hotter in Israel than in Lebanon. Thus the impulse to move North for the season.
Joe, and what about the impulse to move South for the season?
OK, jokes aside, does anybody know?
Egypt is a coming story and very important as the the largest Arab country and a historical seat of power in the region. For the larger picture I suspect that the bigger story may be Turkey. The Turks sit at the juncture of so many threads, both current and historical. Religious, cultural, military, economic; all the paths lead through there. All the players sit in a circle, the US and China at a remove, centered on the Turks. You may want to review your Bernard Lewis oeuvre, or even interview him.
You can ask the PJM tech staff to enable a preview button and thread subscription in your comments.
Dear Mr. Totten,
Welcome aboard. You are one of my go to analysts. I would love to contribute, but I loathe Paypal and will not send a check. Richard Fernandez has an alternative online payment method using the major credit cards. If you make this available, I will feed the kitty.
Cheers,
Richard
Leo, this may not be the whole reason, but a partial reason is definitely that winter is the rainy season. It makes movement (of tanks) and air force visibility incredibly difficult. Why that would impede Hizb from starting something, I’m not so sure. But Summer is definitely the preferred fighting season.
Michael,
Your donation links are coming through broken here: Paypal says the cert can’t be verified.
Joo-liz,
Thank you for trying.
In reality contemporary military like IDF could not care less when to fight. Rain is no obstacle for tanks and airplanes. GPS targeting cannot be not affected by anything at all, well, barring Earth splitting in half.
HA may favor summer much more because their weaponry is not as sophisticated and weather could become major factor.
OK, this is the best explanation I could come up with.
Michael, I read your blog regularly, but don’t comment or give money. However, since you are on a tight budget, and I’m currently working at the Weizmann Institute, you can sleep on my couch in Rehovot to save on hotel bills at any time. The Sherut to Tel Aviv (or bus) are cheap. None of my family or friends are crazy enough to come to Israel in the middle of summer, so the couch (and now there is an extra actual bed in the living room) will be definitely free. Email me for details.
Other ways I’m prepared to help you out to save money and time: I can also show you around the Weizmann Institute so you can report on the state of Israeli science or other crap like that. I can also pay for your dinner a couple of times as long as you don’t go too crazy. I know this really good restaurant in Yaffo with an excellent view of the sea and Tel Aviv from the balcony. I can drive you to Jericho and show you around, but I don’t know any Arabic so I’m not really sure how useful that will be, plus it’s part of the half of the country that I try not to go to in the summer due to the heat. I’m probably going hiking on a weekend in the Yehudiya river in the Golan in August or September, make sure that if you bring anything, it’s water proof.
Right now I’m actually in the Pacific Northwest, but I’ll be back in Rehovot before August.
I’m predicting no Israeli-Muslim war this year. The level of power on both sides has risen to the point of mutual deterrence. Neither side has anything to gain from starting a war.
Although after the election in the US, a hit on Iran’s nuclear facilities becomes more likely. So Iran is the exception, it might have something to gain by a war with Israel. Still, Iran has a great deal to lose and is not in a dominant position.
Leo, there is also history. 1967, 1973, 1982 and 2006 conflicts were all in the warm months June to October. The Gaza offensive in 2008 was in December though. I would argue that if Israel cares to limit the PR damage (not clear that it does), it will not start an operation in the summer when over a million tourists and expats go to Lebanon.
Michael, congratulations on the book and on your upcoming trip. Be careful and stay safe.
IMO Israel is an excellent choice, now especially. I am hoping to manage a trip to Israel myself some time within the next year or so, but circumstances are keeping me grounded for the moment.
I don’t pretend to understand Israeli society, but apropos of today’s solemn date on the Jewish calendar, there’s an excellent roundup on FailedMessiah.com that sheds some light on the various rifts and paradoxes that underlie modern Israel. I think Americans often underestimate the animosity between secular and religious (especially haredi, or ultra-Orthodox) Israelis; I don’t think we have anything to compare it to in our society. Especially noteworthy are the gap in Israeli Jewish education mentioned in the first article, and the mistrust of “Tel Avivians” cited in the second. (Tel Aviv is seen by some Israelis as symbolic of a decadent, secular, modern culture.)
http://failedmessiah.typepad.com/failed_messiahcom/2010/07/secular-ignorance-on-tisha-bav-345.html
Joe:
“it [Israel] will not start an operation in the summer when over a million tourists and expats go to Lebanon.”
Regardless of how much it might want to Israel will not start a war period. Bad for business.
“1967, 1973, 1982 and 2006 conflicts were all in the warm months June to October”
Israel did not start either of those wars (even 6-day War) so “June to October” does not apply to Israel.
A political cartoon that is impeccably relevant to the modern left’s disposition vis-a-vis the Middle East (and many other things):
http://www.sidewalkbubblegum.com/images/150.gif
Leo, was the 1982 invasion of Lebanon necessary? Could Israel have focused on training, equipping and funding the Amal, Christian, Druze alliance against the PLO? Maybe focus on providing them CAS?
What was Israel’s strategy to nation build Lebanon in 1982?
Anan, I never feel comfortable playing Monday morning quarterback, but I’ll give it a shot.
You are saying Amal, Phalangs, Druze were willing to ally with Israel against pan-Arab, Palestinian cause. Risk “selling Arab brothers” to Zionist occupiers.
What kind of reputation SLA has in Lebanon?
Joo-liz,
I bookmarked that cartoon. Thanks.
I’ll assume “post modern” is “post recent” or, as we who are much less sophisticated might say, “now.”
Anan,
I’ll answer one of your questions with a question.
“What was Israel’s strategy to nation build Lebanon in 1982?”
Why should Israel have a strategy to nation build in Lebanon? Israel’s only goal at the time was to get rid of the PLO base on it’s northern border (in Lebanon). It’s not Israel’s responsibility to build a functioning state for the Lebanese. Israel’s only responsibility is to take care of its own citizens.
Anan –
“Leo, was the 1982 invasion of Lebanon necessary?”
R – (Leo pardon me for cutting in here), yes, it was necessary, and somewhat overdue.
Anan – “Could Israel have focused on training, equipping and funding the Amal, Christian, Druze alliance against the PLO?”
R – There was no such alliance involving the Amal, nor was one likely at the time or anytime in the future. Israel had focused on training, funding, and equipping various Christian and Druze factions as early as 1978. With the PLO fielding tanks and heavy artillery in Lebanon by 1981 it was clear that more then a fractured proxy army would be needed. Amal splintered into “radical” and “moderate” factions. The radicals became HizbAllah, the moderates ceased to exist.
Anan -“Maybe focus on providing them CAS?”
R – That would be how Ron Arad was lost (in ’85). Captured by Amal, who handed him handed to (themselves) HizbAllah, who gave him to their sponsors, the Iranian IRGC. Never to return.
Anan – “What was Israel’s strategy to nation build Lebanon in 1982?”
R – I don’t think I’ve ever really heard of such a strategy beyond hoping that the supported Lebanese Army could police its own nation (note that the Syrians helped the LF throw out the last of the PLO in northern Lebanon in 1983). Israel’s strategy at the time was the destruction of the PLO along with any other genocidal Islamic militia’s that were raining down artillery and rockets and launching terrorist attacks on Northern Israel. Does that sound familiar?
Add this to your required reading list…
http://www.erichammelbooks.com/books/b_the-root.php
FOR
THE
CORP,
R
Israel had a de facto alliance with the Shah’s Iran against Saddam. Since Saddam was one of the most evil people ever born in the human species, and because the partnership also contained Saudi Arabia, the Iranian Israeli de facto alliance was a good thing for the world.
In 1979 the Iranian/Israeli relationship broke down. Saddam’s invasion of Iran breathed new life into it, which secret meetings between Israel and Khomeini’s people. Israel helped Iran 1980-1988, and helped prevented a collapse of the Iranian military at the end of 1980. Israel’s de facto alliance with Khomeini extended to bombing Saddam’s nuclear program in 1981 and helping Khomeini’s allies in Lebanon [Amal.]
Amal, the Druze and Christians were at war with the PLO, backed by both Israel and Khomeini. In 1982, Israel choose to intervene directly on the side of Amal/Druze/Christians against the PLO.
Might Israel have been better off merely increasing its support to Amal/Druze/Christians in collaboration with Khomeini?
Israel has had and continues to have a strong national interest in a successful Lebanon. As such, Israel should have pursued [should still pursue] a strategy to strenghten Lebanese institutions [civil and military] and the Lebanese economy.
Off topic.
Why doesn’t Israel publicly reveal and openly talk about all its dealings with Khomeini and emphasize how Khomeini lied to Israel, asked for and took substantial Israeli help, and then betrayed Israel by stabbing them in the back later on. Publicly disclose any dealings with Khamenei too.
For that matter, we Americans should talk more openly about how the 1953 coup in Iran was a Kashani/Khomeini/Shah/Iranian military/Iranian business community/Iranian farmers/Mi6/CIA combined coup. Emphasize Khomeini’s large direct role in it. Also discuss how Carter in the late 1970s tried to empower “progressive” Iranian elements and weaken the Shah. Emphasize how Carter helped Khomeini overthrow the Shah in 1979 in the hopes that this would lead to progressive change inside Iran. Khomeini stabbed America [his long time ally] in the back in 1979. Refused Reagan’s outreach in 1981 and 1985, Bush Senior’s outreach in 1990/91, Clinton’s outreach in 1997-2000.
Khomeini received substantial help from his Israeli and Americans friends before stabbing both countries in the back. Why don’t we discuss what a lying back-stabber he was? It would help the green movement overthrow the remaining Khomeinists. Good for Iran and good for the world.
Thanks for the book suggestion Render.
LEO: “You are saying Amal, Phalangs, Druze were willing to ally with Israel against pan-Arab, Palestinian cause. Risk “selling Arab brothers” to Zionist occupiers.” The reality is that they “DID” ally with Israel against the PLO in 1982, although they flipped sides against Israel later on. Similarly Khomeini did side with Israel against Saddam Hussein.
The reality is that they [Amal, Phalangs, Druze] “DID” ally with Israel against the PLO in 1982, although they flipped sides against Israel later on.
Well, then Israelis were right not relying on anybody else, but themselves.
And this is the answer to your question:
“Could Israel have focused on training, equipping and funding the Amal, Christian, Druze alliance against the PLO?”
Question 1 : Why did Israel invade Lebanon in 1982?
Answer: Israel only wanted to advance 40 km into Lebanon to push the PLO beyond rocket range of northern Israel.
Question 2: How far is Turkey from Israel?
Answer: 40 kilometers
Leo, maybe it goes both ways. Maybe Israel’s allies will be more loyal to Israel if Israel is more loyal to its allies. This is a lesson that many countries could learn.
Anan, you point is valid. However, your question was related to Israeli actions and I believe you have an answer. I realize there is no trust lost between parties. More the reason for everyone to rely on thyselves.
“Maybe Israel’s allies will be more loyal to Israel if Israel is more loyal to its allies.”
More Jew-baiting from anand.
“What was Israel’s strategy to nation build Lebanon in 1982?”
What is anand’s strategy to nation build Israel? Oh yes, behead all the Jews.
Congratualations on your move to PM, and good luck on your upcoming trip.
…a conflagration that could easily involve a number of countries at once—Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Gaza.
And now, alas, Turkey.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has a more formidable arsenal than any other terrorist army on earth…
Hezbollah has a more formidable arsenal than most armies, period. Most of it is aimed at Israel’s population centers.
Question 2: How far is Turkey from Israel?
Answer: 40 kilometers
You might want to recheck that map.
“Maybe Israel’s allies will be more loyal to Israel if Israel is more loyal to its allies.”
Thank you, PJ for putting commenters names at the top of their comment; now I don’t have to scroll to the bottom to confirm my suspicion that it’s anan.
Anan, I’ll try to reply to several of your points, not necessarily in order you posted them.
“Israel had a de facto alliance with the Shah’s Iran against Saddam”
Israel had a de facto alliance with the Shah’s Iran. No additional qualifiers needed. In fact, such alliance is very natural; it’s current confrontation that is unnatural.
“Israel helped Iran 1980-1988, and helped prevented a collapse of the Iranian military at the end of 1980. Israel’s de facto alliance with Khomeini extended to bombing Saddam’s nuclear program in 1981″
Eh? Bombing of Osirak reactor was not done as help to Khomeini. Enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend. And the whole Iran-Contra affair was, in its Iranian part, a) initiated by US and not by Israel and b)intended to strengthen Mousavi and not to help Khomeini.
“Amal, the Druze and Christians were at war with the PLO..”
Yes, at one point of Lebanese Civil War. There were also moments when they were fighting each other – alliances were, let’s say, not very permanent.
“..backed by both Israel and Khomeini”.
No, Khomeini never supported Nabih Berri. He supported splinter group – Islamic Amal, which later became part of Hezbollah.
“Might Israel have been better off merely increasing its support to Amal/Druze/Christians”
Certainly not – taking into account that it was not a permanent block but just temporary alliance of convenience. But SLA was composed of South Lebanese Christians, Druze and Shia.
“Israel has had and continues to have a strong national interest in a successful Lebanon”
Not in successful Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, that’s for sure.
“Maybe Israel’s allies will be more loyal to Israel if Israel is more loyal to its allies. This is a lesson that many countries could learn.”
Here you have a very valid point – Israeli treatment of so-called Palestinian “collaborators” after Oslo accords and of SLA in 2000 can only be described as betrayal, and that’s how Israeli public opinion perceives it. Maybe it was not the last straw that led to Labour party electoral demise, but it was one of significant factors.
The overriding question is what, if anything, can/will bring peaceful coexistence to the Middle East? In my lifetime I’ve seen no light at the end of this tragically dark tunnel, just many victims.
Paul: what, if anything, can/will bring peaceful coexistence to the Middle East?
An end to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which will allow democracy in Lebanon and Iraq to flourish. Syria ends up isolated and weakened, a lot, maybe the regime there, which will become largely irrelevant, will collapse on its own. Hezbollah and Hamas will splinter into ineffectual groups. No Arab countries are going to sign a peace agreement, but at least no one will be actively trying to destroy it.
Also when sheep (because pigs are not Kosher/Halal) fly.
I agree with you, Ali. Take the Islamic Republic out of the picture and replace it with a moderate regime and <a lot of the tension in the region will dissipate (of course not all, and nor will things be rosy).
“Take the Islamic Republic out of the picture and replace it with a moderate regime”
Turkey?
Rabbit, can you provide more info?
“Maybe Israel’s allies will be more loyal to Israel if Israel is more loyal to its allies. This is a lesson that many countries could learn.”
Here you have a very valid point – Israeli treatment of so-called Palestinian “collaborators” after Oslo accords and of SLA in 2000 can only be described as betrayal, and that’s how Israeli public opinion perceives it. Maybe it was not the last straw that led to Labour party electoral demise, but it was one of significant factors.
I understood, without many facts, that those moderate Arabs who were dealing with Israel were murdered by the terrorists after Israel left — facts supporting or disputing this would be good to know.
Lebanon’s mess after Israel invaded and left … IS ISRAEL’S failure.
We have been in post WW II for a long time — invasion means you break the country, therefore you own, therefore you have to rebuild it before you leave.
The US failed in Vietnam (cause Nixon ran too quick, and the Dem Party wouldn’t support Ford’s support of a capitalist S. Vietnam — so the anti-war folk got commie Killing Fields instead of capitalism); the huge cost & problems in Iraq, and now Afghanistan, is to do the hard nation-building work. Nation breaking, er, gov’t breaking, is so much easier.
I don’t think this is Jew-baiting; but I also think Jews who don’t want their daughters to marry a non-Jew (like Fidder on the Roof) are mildly … racist.
But at least Gary’s attack on Anan was based on what he said in this thread. The behead all the Jews, doesn’t seem called for, and is the kind of over-the top reaction that makes me more sympathetic in defense (tho more often I’ve agreed with Gary that Anan is a Jew-hater).
I’d prefer more attacking of the explicit ideas expressed in the thread, and less ad hominem, based on prior junk.
What will bring peace? Maybe lots of little cantons, like the Swiss have, so those who disagree don’t have to be in the same canton. I’d suggest Israel reform itself to be more that, and prepare to impose an occupied canton type structure to the future occupied territories they get in the next war — with willing agreement to leave as soon as a Peace Agreement is signed, but continued temporary occupation until then.
Paul, the Middle East is mostly peaceful now, despite the inflammatory rhetoric. Perhaps we already passed a threshold where all sides decided the cost of war is now unbearably high. Perhaps!
“invasion means you break the country, therefore you own, therefore you have to rebuild it before you leave”
Wrong. I do not invade for the purpose of nation building. I have better things to do.
Don’t hesitate to ask if you need a couch to crash on in the Tel Aviv area for a night or three. Also, update if you plan on giving any public talks when in Israel. Bon voyage.
The possibility of war in the Middle East is always real. I sure
hope that it will not happen anytime soon! Fact is, there is no
interest in starting a new border war with Israel from Lebanon and
to a certain degree from Gaza…however, one can never rest easy and
there are no guarentees that can be offered. The situation is tense
but not explosive at this point but danger always loom on the
horizon in that part of the world…a way of life!
75. Tom Grey ‘ … I also think Jews who don’t want their daughters to marry a non-Jew (like Fiddler on the Roof) are mildly … racist.’
In general having ones children marry non-Jews is not the issue as much as losing the grandchildren to Judaism -
Is that racist? I’ll let you decide if a people that has a history of more than 3,000 years and the attendant attempts to destroy this people have a right and obligation of continuity. This leaves aside the religious issue. The Jewish people do not have race as part of its’ people-hood requirement, the requirement is of identity.
In terms of racism – Jews are black, white, Latino, Asian – you name the race and you’ll find a Jew there.
‘… Maybe lots of little cantons’
I think that indeed that may be the only way for Israel to survive. In an aside, when the Israelites first crossed the Jordan, and even before, the land was divided by tribe so that all would be able to live in harmony and still keep their tribal identity in the nationhood of Israel.
++++++++
MJT
I also would like the ‘preview’ feature.
Have a great trip.
Joe,
Yes, maybe mostly peaceful is the most to expect. Still, I can’t help thinking about the lives kids in Gaza might have, and the tensions Israelis live with every day, even on those mostly peaceful days.
The RSS feed icon is broken – it just acts as a link back to whatever page you are on rather than prompting you to subscribe to the RSS feed. Seeing as it probably won’t be fixed for a while does anybody have the raw URL for me to paste into Google Reader?
Thanks
Yeah Paul, bad conditions usually breed bad results, but then that doesn’t explain California or New York…
Well 38 years ago North Korea aided terrorist attacks in Israel. Some seem oblivious to history…..
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/19/us-court-fines-n-korea-for-terror-plot/print/
I also see some Liberal blogs grumbling about paying for both the first 19 F-35s and Iron Dome….
Deal making time for Obama when considering the poll numbers….and as Iran moves forward:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jCA6iGhsEI3i-z4hAG8Z2Cu4kV3Q
Kurdish rebels blew up the Iranian Turkish gas pipeline…
A full table for Michael to ponder when traveling…
Steve B,
Try this:
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/feed/
Max,
From the Iranian playbook:
“Chavez and His Caribbean War”
Austin Bay
http://tinyurl.com/2g6bl7j
“Chavez rattles sabers and threatens war in order to divert increasing domestic opposition…(and) Curacao currently hosts a U.S. base for drug interdiction (so) Recently, he accused the U.S. of planning an attack on Venezuela using the base at Curacao.”
Same game, different players.
Michael,
I am one of your faithful silent readers; unfortunately I can’t contribute money, but since you are heading our way I can offer you a couch in our living room in one of the old neighborhoods of West Jerusalem, walking distance from both the Old City and the Knesset. We also have wireless internet.
Do send me an email if you think this might be useful for you.
BBK
To anyone who is having trouble with the paypal link, try the one on the right hand side, it seems to be working fine.
Richard @ 44,
If you have money order service where you live it is very good alternative to check and paypal.
Paul, isn’t it absurd those ten nations are suing AZ? I mean, Cuba, Mexico, Bolivia attacking AZ immigration law when in there own countries illegals fair much worse. It is true this administration has likely opened their eyes concerning Latin America. Yep, same game but different players..
One difference however: terrorists are entering the game as pressure is put on narco-terrorists. Now that won’t turn out well, unless we take a more proactive approach.
Two mistakes by Obama in this context – assuming peace in South America or the Middle East can be achieved without understanding the role of terrorist enablers -particularly Iran. Chavez’s best move is to start a conflict on our border destabilizing Mexico. Now would the DOJ make a deal with the cartel to prevent infiltration by Hamas and HIzb’Allah?
At this rate, Michael will be traveling to South America to learn more about terrorist training camps…….
Michael, is there any chance to get a preview and edit feature here? Just wondering…….
75. Tom Grey
“I understood, without many facts, that those moderate Arabs who were dealing with Israel were murdered by the terrorists after Israel left — facts supporting or disputing this would be good to know.”
As for the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, the facts are more or less as follows: Israel had a local druze militia allied to it in south Lebanon (the SLA). This militia fell apart several months before the planned Israeli withdrawal, and precipitated the withdrawal. The IDF left in undignified haste. Many SLA members rushed to the border with Israel and were allowed in. Most have been living here ever since. Hizballah has had a policy of not retaliating against former SLA members in Lebanon. Because of this, there has been a slow trickle back from Israel to Lebanon.
“Lebanon’s mess after Israel invaded and left … IS ISRAEL’S failure. We have been in post WW II for a long time — invasion means you break the country, therefore you own, therefore you have to rebuild it before you leave.”
With this I must disagree, on several counts. First, Lebanon was a mess before Israel invaded, because of the Lebanese civil war. Second, from a historical perspective, rebuilding a defeated country has never been the obligation of the victor. Throughout history, defeated countries have been either pillaged, carved up, or forced to pay war damages (e.g. France in 1870, Germany in 1919). In modern times, only the USA has ever rebuilt an invaded country – nobody else has been rich or benevolent enough to do it.
Max,
I’d be very curious to know what kind of a reception Guatemalans receive on Mexico’s southern border. With Mexican citizens receiving free (to them) assistance in the U.S., while $billions (with a b) flow back to Mexico, status quo incentives remain strong. I’m not entirely unsympathetic either; if narcoterrorists were demoralizing, corrupting and threatening to overwhelm my local police force I’d be looking for safer territory too. This MUST be prioritized as urgent, before Mexico spirils out of control and descends into chaos, for them as well as for our border states.
The car bombing: The Tovex, “a commercial grade gel explosive…was likely stolen from a mining company, U.S. officials said.” Wouldn’t fertilizer be easier to obtain? It’s not as if they’re trying to collapse a highrise building.
And why not long before now, I’m wondering? Although, since terror overlays culture, there is much for North Americans and others to learn and appreciate, for good as well as evil purposes, unfortunately.
Paul – It would require quite a bit of fertilizer and other ingredients to make an equal blast size. There’s more then one reason McVeigh used a rental truck. Commercial grade explosives are also considerably easier to work with.
THINGS THAT
GO BOOM,
R
Render,
I thought of fertilizer, remembering a Michael Yon dispatch from Helmand Province in August of ’09 (“Bad Medicine”): “Nearly all fatalities in this unit have been caused by fertilizer bombs.”
If someone just wanted to send a message, rather than blow up the whole precinct, this seems easier.