Big news today from Iran, confirming once again that the hapless regime in Tehran proceeds down its death spiral. The first is the spectacular collapse of the national currency, which has lost 35% of its value since September. The second headline, in an extraordinary press conference by the effective commander of the revolutionary guards, is the admission that the incarcerated leaders of the green movement have so much powerful support that the regime dares not prosecute them.
The crash of the rial him has been linked to the latest round of sanctions, the ones aimed against the Iranian central bank. These are, at least for the moment, unilateral American sanctions, but their import is global, since they are aimed at anyone doing business in Iran’s oil sector. Those transactions invariably go through the central bank, and the American sanctions confront would-be purchasers of Iranian crude oil with an unpleasant choice: either do business with America or do business with Iran.
The ayatollahs, in their usual blustery way, have pooh-poohed the effect of the sanctions, insisting that Iran is so strong that even such harsh measures will have little effect. But nobody in Iran believes that. There are long lines at the money changers, and one leading government supporter puts the matter in chilling perspective: Iranian industry “cannot continue to exist” with the rial at today’s level.
As the Washington Post’s man in Tehran says, this is a devastating blow to the regime, both because it further exposes their inability to cope with the Great Satan—whose destruction, after all, is the core mission of the Islamic Republic—and because the Iranian people know that their oppressors are making out like bandits, as Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen explains:
The 39 percent difference between the central bank’s official rate and market rates on Dec. 21 was the largest in almost two decades, economists in Tehran and Washington said in interviews.
U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said the gap between the two rates has provided an arbitrage opportunity exploited by officials and businesses affiliated with the IRGC, the elite military arm that’s under international sanctions for suspected nuclear weapons work and terrorism. They are among regime elements able to obtain foreign currency at the favorable official exchange rate and sell it for a profit in exchange bureaus at the market rate, he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in written testimony Dec. 1.
“Ordinary Iranians are urgently seeking out foreign currency such as dollars or euros for safety, yet they are having trouble accessing hard currency, and when they can, they have to pay the unofficial market rate,” said Cohen, the Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.
There are stories from Tehran about people desperately trying to buy commodities, from gold to steel, about people selling cars and motorcycles to get cash they can convert to hard currency, and, inevitably, about people offering their kidneys for sale (a story we’ve heard about desperate people everywhere from Africa to China. Is it true?).
So the regime is failing to meet the basic needs of the Iranian people (nothing really new there; strikers at the Shiraz Telecommunications Factory haven’t been paid for 26 months), and the people don’t like it.
This debacle coincides with an amazing confession of weakness from the highest level of the regime: Ali Saeedi is the supreme leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, and since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commands the Guards, Saeedi’s words are authoritative. Asked why Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–the two Green Movement leaders who have been held in isolation for more than ten months—Saeedi publicly stated that it can’t be done, because the two have such powerful support. The opposition leaders can’t be prosecuted, he said, “because they have supporters and followers” as well as “a few turban-heads [clerics] who continue to back elements within the sedition.”
Indeed, Karroubi’s wife has been released from captivity, and she communicates her husband’s thoughts to the Green Movement. Most recently, this consisted of instructions to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for March. This is yet another direct challenge to Khamenei, who has always boasted (often falsely) that Iranian elections produce huge turnouts.
Those who believe the Green Movement has been crushed need to reflect on these developments, which seem to me to prove the opposite: the regime fears the movement, doesn’t dare take decisive action against its leaders, and faces further protests against a background of mounting failure.
And yet, Khamenei’s killers continue to attack us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we still have not openly supported his opponents, any more than we have supported Assad’s opponents in Syria. How many Americans have to die at the hands of this wicked regime before we help the Iranian and Syrian people put an end to their long national agony?
And yet, Khamenei’s killers continue to attack us in Iraq and Afghanistan,
Can you provide some more information on this?
ML has tirelessly reported over the years on Iranian training and supply of Iraqi and Afghan fighters. Try a search on this site or others. You can also do a Google search for articles documenting US complaints about Iranian involvement — try for example searching on: condoleezza IED iran
dh,
The Iranians have deployed explosively formed penetrators making them available to insurgent forces in both countries. These bombs have the capability of piercing heavy armor and have killed and maimed thousands of US and coalition soldiers.
Neither Bush nor Obama have done anything about these attacks. Reagan never did anything about Hezboulah’s attack against US Marines in Lebanon.
Someday some US Commander in Chief is going to decide to take action against the Iranians. I trust they are not foolish enough to attack US forces in the Arabian Gulf. If they are that stupid, the US Navy is uniquely suited to the task of sending the Iranian Navy to Davey Jones locker in one quick hurry. The Iranians know this.
I am waiting for attacks to be avenged. I have waited more than 30 years now.
The Mullahs need to be sent to hell where they belong. They will look great hanging out with Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot, and Mao. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
> I am waiting for attacks to be avenged. I have waited more than 30 years now.
And you are not the only one waiting…. and tired of the U.S. government sacrificing American lives to appease the dark powers in Teheran.
The Iranian MOIS ordered the deaths of those 241 Marines. They were killed in their sleep, while on a U.N. peacekeeping mission. As the beautiful Arlington memorial says, “They Came in Peace.”
This was the largest number of causalities suffered by the Corps since the Battle of Inchon.
NSA intercepted the order from Iranian intelligence headquarters in Tehran to Mohtashemi, Iranian ambassador in Damascus. This was discovered and made known to the administration within days of the attack. There’s been an understandable reluctance by many at the federal level to pursue the issue.
D.C. doesn’t do Lessons Learned.
And it was the 1980s, after all: the hired help might be prosecuted, but sponsors and funding sources were off limits. Fortunately for the administration at the time and for states like Iran, it was soon discovered that all terrorism stems from voluntary networks. States by definition thereafter couldn’t be involved in terrorism. Some hoped that this might change with 9/11.
The intercept was introduced in the civil suit, which found for the plaintiffs. Iran has been ordered to pay $2,656,944,877 in damages. Families are still waiting. To my knowledge, DoS has done nothing to help them collect. Perhaps DoD can lend a hand.
Iranian perfidy in the matter is beyond question. So too, the failures of those responsible to provide for the common defense.
Reagan never did anything about Hezboulah’s attack against US Marines in Lebanon.
was not exactly Reagan’s fault, but that of his “realist” advisers Baker, Weinberger and poppa Bush who had too many vested interests in the Arab world and too little understanding of what was actually happening on the ground. Don’t think they even knew that Iran was calling the tune in 1983 Lebanon.
Did they really know what to do about the Iran/Iraq war, and what would have been the result if Israel had not destroyed Saddam’s nuclear reactor?
samizdat.thank you man, you’re a real eagle,when? when Can I see your bombers on Iran’s sky,to destroy all the infrastructure of this damn regime? when? when can I wave my hand to f-15′s f-18′s f-14 tomcats f-22 raptors b-1b lancers pilots greetings? when can we see the laser guided bombs Whistling come down and send
these thugs to hell? when can we see the corpses of these cowards all around the everywhere? when your battalion come and kill all the forces of this hellish regime?
Faster, with more speed, please.
There is no such body of water anywhere on earth which is called the Arabian Gulf. We share hatred for the Mullahs. Me more than you if you are not Iranian. But this hatred should not interfere in the use of historically correct geographical names.
dh – you are to be commended for looking into this. Dr. Ledeen has been at the forefront of trying to publicize this nefarious Iranian activity, as well as the issue of the threat to the US from Iran, for years. Try searching his name with the phrase “Faster, Please”.
There are many good compendia on the Iran threat/Iranian subversion. Try searching the organizations “Foundation For Defense of Democracy” or “American Enterprise Institute” with the word “Iran”.
You might also Google the term “EFP (Explosively Formed Projectile (or Penetrator))” and “Iran”. EFPs were te signature Iranian IED in Iraq, per reports in the open source media.
As a start, you might review the short “Findings” section of the following legislation from the U.S. Senate: http://iranlegislation.wikispaces.com/file/detail/kyl-lieberman+modified+iran+amendment+9-26-07.doc.
If this information motivates you to act you will be able to provide an important support to our servicemen and to our country.
The Iranians are accused of helping the insurgents in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghan with IED components that improve lethality by directing (formed or shaped) charges which penetrate armor better than conventional bombs.
Wiki “Iran IED components IRAQ and Afghan” for a closer look-see.
Both admins have been unable to curtail this trade and unwilling to directly confront Iran or respond militarily.
Please edit for clarity. (Not trying to be nasty, just helpful.)
Internal contradiction: “the admission that the incarcerated leaders of the green movement have so much powerful support that the regime dares not arrest them.”
” Asked why Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–the two Green Movement leaders who have been held in isolation for more than ten months—Saeedi publicly stated that it can’t be done, because the two have such powerful support.”
Some weird aphasia in re Greenies’ legal status?
thanks. changed “arrest” to “prosecute.”
…uck Mir Hossein Mousavi, and …uck Mehdi Karroubi,
my fellow americans
don’t be decisive by this devil regime, these Islamic creature just are a portrate
for deception, so don’t get in these booby traps, just concentrate in war and fire power against this hellish Tehran’ Regime.
As long as we have a White House occupant who is either clueless or out to destroy our nation on the world stage no action that really threatens the beards terrorizing Iran & much of the world will be taken by the appeaser-in-chief.
Not to mention that our Muslim-in-Chief has fostered the growth of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East by ridding it of the strong dictators that held Islam in check. See results in Libya, Egypt, etc. Also he has not assisted the nascent freedom movements in Iran and Syria and he is favorable to the Turkish government which is bringing back Islam to this nation with a vengeance.
The Muslim spring is here and the damage has been done but we need to rid ourselves of this muslim lover and begin to reinstate the foundations of our Constitutional Republic.
It is the State Department, NOT the White House.
The CIA put the Shah in Power post WW2. This PO’d State. That was back in the Early 50′s. While that may be long ago to you, bureaucracies never forget. Remember, State helped Khomeini get into Turkey when he started his exile. ’64, IIRC.
The average POTUS has no foreign policy to speak of. So State fills the vacuum.
It will take a very strong POTUS to march into Foggy Bottom and lay down the Law. Any POTUS strong enough has more important issues to deal with.
So things will conyinue until Israel bombs the c__p out of Iran. Depending on who controls Syria, that could be a good thing or a bad thing.
“either do business with America or do business with Iran” Well I guess that means we have to cut China out of our bond market. That means we can’t float so many loans, which means reduced Govt spending. What’s not to like?
Perhaps the Iranians recently took over the British Embassy because they heard a rumor that the seating there had loose change in the cushions……foreign coins at that!
And not euros, either. Bonus!
Why – after 30 years of Iranian bombs slaughtering Americans by the hundreds in the 1980′s and 1990s (Beirut, Khobar, Yemen, etc.) – and then by the thousands (Iranian IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, and if recent US court rulings are to be believed, 9-11) – why are these measly sanctions the best the Democrats and Republicans can come up with? These acts of war should have been answered with full scale war, starting three decades ago.
The Left’s share of guilt for this is obvious, but the Conservatives in their negligence have been even more reprehensible: they presided while the slaughter took place (Ronald Reagan, GW Bush) – and they are the ones who claim to be Patriots, to love their country and to value liberty and Western values. While there are a few Conservatives who have to their credit actually supported war against Iran, their number is too small to allow the Conservative movement as a whole to be considered anything but as recklessly indifferent to freedom and national security as the Left. (And their complicity in the balooning size of government shows they are indifferent to freedom domestically as well).
To be fair, Ronald Reagan was much more concerned with the USSR than muslims. However, he DID sink Irans navy. I’m not sure they ever recovered from that. They pretty much still harass our navy with speed boats.
I have no defense of Bush.
Reagan did support war against Iran – in the 1980s we backed (marginally) Iraq in that war. If he knew then what we know now I think he’d have advocated a different and more direct approach. Hindsight is what it is. Foresight – not so good.
we sold weapons and intel to the Iranians, and then shared intel with the Iraqis to “balance” things out.
and then imprisoned Pollard for sharing that intel with Israel?
Indeed, as reprehensible as Sadaam was, and as justified as we were in taking him out, I think we make a major blunder by focusing on him in lieu of Iran. We should have invaded Iran from Afghanistan and continued to isolate Iraq. That would have done far more for American interests and far more toward isolating Syria. The Saudis would almost certainly have surreptitiously supported it too. We had one shot and we aimed at the flashier and wrong target.
The regime will collapse with a few nudges from the outside. Your books SHOULD BE mandatory readings for all current US officials, Michael.
Ok. Got me on that one because I haven’t read any of his books. What never ceases to amaze me is all the brilliant thinkers postulating this or that to solve a problem overseas and we NEVER seem to come back to the base foundation of the freedom that let this country become the greatest EVER. Why can’t we think about sanctions based on freedom. No First Amendment? No aid or visas. No second amendment? No military support. Or something. When is the genius our founders enshrined going to be dusted off and tried in the world…again.
“How many Americans have to die at the hands of this wicked regime before we help the Iranian and Syrian people put an end to their long national agony?”
I believe Mookie al Sadr himself admitted in the past few days that Shiite militia groups in Iraq under the influence of Tehran have killed “good people”.
But the question is best put to our current President who sits on his hands and appears to do nothing. He may be working behind the scenes, I would have no way to know, but he should offer those people some glimmer of hope. To completely ignore their plight in public is a cruel thing to do.
Obama work behind the scenes? This is a man who tried to replace a pro-American democracy in Honduras with a pro-communist dictator, who kept Netanyahu waiting an hour while he had supper, who would have apologized for dropping the atomic bomb on Japan if the Japanese had not stopped him, who gave a speech in Cairo declaring himself the sexual boy toy of the Moslem Brotherhood, who supported the Libyan rebels to victory without knowing or perhaps whether they were worse than the present government, who is negotiating a US defeat with the Taliban, who screwed up the SOFA talks with Iraq so that he could call himself smarter than George Bush once the Iranians establish hegemony over that country. Let’s pray almighty g-d that Obama does nothing but play golf until January 21, 2013.
The Iranian government is in a death spiral caused by the loss of confidence in its incompetant elities and will soon enter a revolutionary situation. As seen from Lybia (2011), Egypt (2011), France (1789), Russia (1917), China (1911-1947), and Germany (1933), we should all hope for the collapse of the Islamic government. I am quite certain Obama, Sarkozy, Merkel, and their bankers have a strong grasp on the future and am confident in their ability to channel the outcome of the collapse to our advantage. I’m sure the new Iranian regime will be as stable and amiable as those of Napoleon, Hitler, and Lenin & Stalin.
You have brought up a good point that can be argued. Nations like people seem to learn from their mistakes. The 1917 revolution in Russia brought horror, the 1989 brought something better. The French Revolution that brought in the Reign of Terror and Napoleon did not last, nor is it likely the krauts will fall for another Hitler. The sequence seems to be bad government, revolution, control by nutty true believers and utter hell, war and/or rebellion, new better but not great government. I suspect the massive disappointment, revulsion and economic necessity would hinder a new wave of fanatics from taking over immediately should the Iranian government actually fall (which by the way I do not see happening as long as the state terror apparatchiks get their paychecks on time).
Yep. When a nasty regime implodes, we can rejoice.
But we should keep our fingers off the scale! Messing with other sovereign nations’ internal affairs has not served us well.
there’s no general “law” about meddling; sometimes it’s helped, sometimes it’s hurt, sometimes it’s been a wash…
“Messing with other sovereign nations’ internal affairs”
Iran has millennia of experience in that department.
If the Strait of Hormuz is stopped, who benefits?
Russia.
Their crude price would jump, as would their political influence.
Perhaps that is why Russia is providing Iran with the weapons needed.
i don’;t think they can “stop” the Strait of Hormuz.
Michael,
I have enjoyed reading the article and the comments.
It is, in fact, possible to stop the straits, if Merriam-Webster is to be believed.
stop (vt):
1a : to close by filling or obstructing
2a : to close up or block off (an opening) : plug
b : to make impassable : choke, obstruct
Alternatively, if the objective is to make the mullahs sing a different tune, then def. 7 is in order
7 : to change the pitch of (as a violin string) by pressing with the finger…
In the realm of trickery and strategery, where the RG is well-practiced, there is def. 8
8 : to hold an honor card and enough protecting cards to be able to block (a bridge suit) before an opponent can run many tricks
Finally, a full house also stops a strait.
haha, steve, love it.
There seems to be a contradiction here. Poor editing or Iranian doublespeak?
thanks, my typo. changed now to “dares not prosecute them.”
Iran is like Hyman Roth: “…He’s been dying of the same heart condition for 20 years now.”
yes, well said, thanks.
Those transactions invariably go through the central bank, and the American sanctions confront would-be purchasers of Iranian crude oil with an unpleasant choice: either do business with America or do business with Iran.
Japan currently gets 6.4% of total Japanese crude from Iran. This is certainly a conundrum for Japan and the US. That is a lot of OIL!!!!! Not like they can turn on the Canucklehead tap….yet.
Well this Canucklehead and a lot like me are all in favor of the northern pipeline to the Pacific bypassing the States where we have to put up with your idiot politics. Keep looking at your navel.
Yes, indeed. And ironically, most Americans agree with you. Sigh.
Most? I’m not so sure of that…
I always like going through the current Iran related headlines when I need a good laugh.
In today’s news the Iranian Army chief has threated that the US had better not sail any carriers through the Persian Gulf or…
Or what General?
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=251979
Well they do have flying boats.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/28/iran-unveils-squadrons-of-flying-boats/
Iran looks, ideologically like Germany 1938 and world´s number 1 terrorist land. The only Republican presidential candidate who understands the danger is Rick Santorum. The mullahs are a combination of Islam, Nazism and Communism and a nuclear Iran will cause another Holocaust.
I have no hope that Europe, with its gutless, coward and corrupt politicians, will take any step to counter this danger. I hope the Americans wake up and understand how Obama has put the security of the USA, Israel and the West in danger and this psycho Ron Paul is as bad, even worse than psycho Barack Hussein Obama. I have never met an Israeli Jewish citizen and have no knowledge their religion but I consider Israel as a shining light surrounded by vast oasis of darkness called the Arab world.
There are a significant number of Iranians who, wholeheartedly, hate Islam but there are parts who are as evil as their coreligionists in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt and Gaza. Iranian Left, “moderate Muslims” and “intellectuals” are as bad, anti-Semite and anti-American as crazy mullahs and their gangs. I know that because I am an Iranian citizen (it is not a matter of pride) and that is very unfortunate.
I agree about Rick Santorum has the best appreciation of the Iranian threat. People seem to understate the threat it poses to the US; I put it this way; for the Iranians destroying Israel is a pleasure, destroying the US is a necessity.
Doesn’t this make them more dangerous, at least temporarily? I would think the regime would try anything to hang on to power, including starting a war, on the theory that would unite the people to fight the Great Satan and his minions.
Or at the very least, they might just want to see who they could take down with them.
Hmm… I wonder how I could contact some of those people trying to get rid of some of their money. I wouldn’t buy much (I just like collecting foriegn money sometimes) but at this point $20 US would probably help them more than anything in their own funds.
This is “bad” news!
If Iran loses its dictators by the use of sanctions, what kind of message will that send to the American electorate? It would be truly awful if we end up with four more years of Obama because of this.
Ah, the universe moves in unknowable ways.
Obama is on the Mullahs side! Why he went after Gadhafy and not these “beirdos?”
We have reached a point in time where we actually have the ability to free ourselves from middle east oil dependency. I think any president in our history, (including maybe Carter) would be shouting “drill baby drill” at the top of his lungs right now. Instead, this president is held hostage by a tiny sliver of the population (greenies)who hold the power of his reelection in their hands. Pathetic!
Perhaps only until he understands they don’t – and decides he wants to leave some kind of positive legacy.
I would like to agree with this piece, but I think it paints a rosy scenario. I agree that the new U.S. sanctions could have a significant impact on the Iranian economy, but only if the new sanctions are implemented and effectively enforced. My understanding is that we are at least 6 months away from actual implementation, while the Obama administration evaluates the potential impacts of the sanctions on the global economy, and the President has final line-item veto power over any specific sanction and application to any specific country. So short term market fluctuations in the Iranian currency are not predictive of longer term performance.
On the other hand, the blustery response from the Iranians about U.S. naval assets in the region and their threat to shut the straits indicate they are worried. I hope you are right, but the Iranian regime has demonstrated that they are willing to take extreme measures against their own people to stay in power. Internally, the Iranian regime holds all the cards.
Doug Santo
Pasadena, CA
i think they’re very worried. as for sanctions, the domestic market in Iran really tells us what we need to know, don’t you think? watch the bazaars…
Sanctions, smanctions. The EU had put sanctions on Iran for years and years and still Iran persisted in building a nuclear weapon. America then comes in and invokes sanctions against Iran and they continue building a nuclear weapon. Bush was thinking about a flyover with bunkerbusters but his ‘intelligence community’ (there is an oxymoron for you) stated publicy and unequivocally that Iran had stopped building its nuclear weapons; and without citing sources. This was enough to stop Bush. Now, with the Muslim-in-Chief our government is silent on the issue as they know that Obummer will never initiate action against his friends, the Ayatollah’s.
So talk is cheap and sanctions will not stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This just makes it extremely more difficult to rectify the situation when all h*ll breaks loose in the Middle East.
If at some point the Green Movement prevails will it have the clout to immediately dismantle everything the mullahs have built-up during their thirty year war with the West? The mullahs have sunk enormous sums into this project for so long these things are like the country’s most valuable national assets—after the oil that still in the ground. If the Greens win look for them to try to ransom off this stuff—mainly the nuclear program—for hard cash and lots of it.
hello. using the public as human fodder to just make money is population reduction at its finest. the elites have aroused the people into adversarial relations to rally against the great demon- allowing the elites to line their pockets. now that the public craves satisfaction, and the elites do not want the public to come after them…the elites must provide the public with a war. the elites get to keep their wealth, while humanity slaughters itself on the battlefield. perhaps in America we should be going after the one responsible for these banking sanctions.
– our task force was scheduled to leave the Strait. A brief naval battle would have sunk the regime too (and the POTUS would be hailed as a hero).
I think there might be wide agreement that it would be best if the regime fell of its own weight to internal opposition.
Obama is not so blind as not to hedge his bets. (Rule 1: be in a position to take credit for whatever happens.)
Therefore I believe he is aiding the anti-regime mujahedin, and if the regime falls will reveal his ties officially.
If they hang on, some escalation, embargo, or new revelation/provocation will make Obama a wartime president who alone knows how to handle Iran (and must be returned to office).
If they (appear to) come to the table over their nuclear program (under duress of sanctions) Obama will declare total victory by September, medals by October.
If France Israel and Britan demand a strike, Obama will go along, (Allah knows we tried) as long as it enhances his re-election chances,( before Oct.).
And it won’t hurt his status with the sunnis.
Mike, is the state terror apparatus still functioning? If yes, no revolution. These people have been murdering dissidents in foreign countries since 1979, to say nothing of hundreds of American serviceman. Revolutions occur when the terror apparatus is to weak or irresolute to prevent one. Being afraid to prosecute a dissident leader may indicate they are, it may also indicate that they do not think it is worth the trouble. It seems more like an attitude of let the opposition have their impotent leaders and make believe opposition for we have all the power. Who knows if the current impotent leaders are eliminated real competent leaders may arise to take their place, better the devil you know, especially if he is under house arrest. Remember how Frederick the Great dismissed his opposition “how many battalions do they have?”
Yes the Iranian people are going from bad to worse, but if your goal is world conquest on behalf of god what are a few starving babies? Once the regime has nukes and Obama is re-elected all will be made right.
I wanted to address the writing errors in Mr. Ledeen’s report. He is obviously excited by the quickening pace of developments in Iran. That’s understandable. I remember the excitement of the revolution. It was nauseating. A reversal would be sweet satisfaction. I also had to check the part about a notice for a kidney for sale. Yes, indeed, the practice of organ DONATION has been legal in Iran since 1967, but SALE is haram according to Islamic law. Thus, whether the “for sale” notice cited in the report is credible, or it is a sick joke, it is an indication of the breakdown of established social norms in Iran.
I read today that an Iranian spokesman has said that “the enemy’s” carrier should stay out of the Persian Gulf. Apart from sanctions, how is it that this war only goes one way?
Obama and his horde are afraid to rattle a sword since it might compromise some of his relatives in the Middle East. Rattling a golf club is more his style.
I do not believe the Green movement in Iran is Americas friend anymore than I think the next tribe taking over Libya is going to be better that the Col. Moon god worship is the problem.
When Islamic countries have problems, somehow Israel is attacked. I predict a Regional war in the Middle East. Russia gets involved, and loses. Which sets up the global war.
Have a great day.
the global war is already on. and you are right, the Russians are an important part of it.
Mr Leeden, was there not a clause in this legal talk to give OBama a 160 day leeway in pushing this sanction….As Obama stated that he was the only person to have the absolute final authority over events….Also Sir, do you realize the importance of your statement about the Ruskies already being completely involved in the area…..Heaven Steer the USA, not to be on the wrong side when it comes to Judgement over the Nation of Israel….Sir, this is very good news to all of us “friends of Israel’….Mwssiah will be here soon….Bless His Holy name, Come quickly Lord Jesus….
Correction….Messiah will be here soon….Truely The Salvation of Israel, is nigh, ever at the door….As a Christian, i could shout His Praises for what is happening….Our salvation Draweth near…
there is almost always a “national security waiver” in such legislation. nothing new there…
While our “Fearless Leader” (after all, he did kill Osama!) signed legislation to penalize any company or country doing business with the Iranian Central Bank, he engineered some “exceptions” that will almost certainly water down this “sanction” to the point of making it meaningless.
First, “Dear Leader” has engineered a “study” period of several months before the sanction could be imposed so he can determine its impact on the world economy (shades of the Gulf Oil “moritorium”.
Second, our nation’s “Forth Best President Ever” has reserved the right to issue “waivers” to companies and nations dependant on Iranian oil. Since Europe is Iran’s leading customer for its crude, it looks like the President will issue waivers to just about any nation that wants one.
The recent “show of force” by the Iranian Navy was directed at one man and one many only — you guessed it — the “smartest man ever to hold the Presidency.” The Mullahs are betting that “He Who Has Healed the Planet and Stopped the Seas From Rising” will not have the stones to impose a sanction that would actually work.
I’m with the Mullahs on this one. My bet is that we’ll never see this sanction imposed.
thanks. but the world’s smartest man did not blink at the “show of force.” he sent the USS Stennis right through the Straits…and the mullahs are in a panic over the currency crash.
That is exactly what I think happened. We out here cannot see operational detail but it is obvious that the 5th fleet was far from idle when the Iranians made their show of force. Something ticked them off. Did we actually run a carrier group right through the maneuvers? I hope so.
Let us give credit where it is due. Whomever is CIC the US navy and Air Force right now could make their Iranian counterparts non operational within 48 hours. The threat from Iran today sounds pathetic.
This is timed to upcoming US elections. Let us hope that our leadership holds strong.
Even though this hater of freedom and liberty might be in its death throes, we must keep a wary eye on Iran. Even a ‘dead’ snake can still give a lethal bite.
“And yet, Khamenei’s killers continue to attack us in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we still have not openly supported his opponents, any more than we have supported Assad’s opponents in Syria. How many Americans have to die at the hands of this wicked regime before we help the Iranian and Syrian people put an end to their long national agony?”
Don’t you get it by now? Obama isn’t about to do ANYTHING to Iran, especially if it means stirring things up in Afghanistan. Obama wants both Iraq and Afghanistan to be over with before the next election, regardless of what that will do to each country. He wants to prove to his ultra-liberal base that he can both run away from two wars AND reduce the military budget so that he can sink more money into social-welfare programs. Obama is afraid that if he does anything to Iran, it will just start another Middle Eastern war he does not want and it will make him stay longer in Afghanitan (since the Iranians are helping the Taliban there). Obama sees foreign policy as a “distraction,” and he’s not about to run the risk of getting pulled into another conflict. If the mullahs are smart, they will do nothing until AFTER the next election and then act quickly to kill their opponents, before the new president comes into office in 2013. The last thing the mullahs want is to force Obama to actually DO something.
What do we want? A new president. Sadly, not much will happen with Iran until that happens.
yes, i got it a long time ago. but it’s important to keep making the case.
as for what the Iranian elites are “thinking,” it’s a mistake, I think, to assume that they are doing what they are doing in response to American behavior. If they are facing the abyss, they will frantically scramble to stay afloat, and getting involved in conflicts is one road, at least in their (largely delusional) vision.
One thing that seems to be overlooked or ignored is that if and when these resistance movements finally get rid of their oppressors, they are going to hate the US mightily for not supporting them. That’s not to say they wouldn’t have hated us in the name of Islam anyway, but this just gives them a justification.
quite right. since we haven’t lifted a finger to help, why should they be nice? on the other hand, where are they going to turn? they’ve been abandoned by most everyone.
I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about this. After all Iranians have always loved America regardless of all the tragedies, bad policies, etc. just because what connects these 2 nations are beyond our world politics, way more beyond that. America and its culture and Persia / Iran and its culture are the 2 sides of a coin. They have been wedded, influenced by each other, learned from each other and finally more alike each other than imaginable. America land of freedom with its multi ethnicity nation from all over the world resembles Persia and its multi ethnicity nation from that old world of the time, both welcoming and open. The immigrating people of the world have become better in general as the result of living under these 2 cultures. Of course I am talking about Iranian culture and its old rich history and not the barbaric foreign enemy regime that is occupying it now.
Having said all this, yes Iranians are very disappointed at Obama and his gang, but still hoping for a Reganist type of President in the near future.
Your columns are astonishing, Mr. Ledeen, thank you very much.
It would be so nice to have a Commander in Chief now, instead of an Internationalist Subversive in Chief.
We have a long way to go to reach the elections and this administration is creating true dangers for the future of America (and of Israel) – by action (Egypt, Libya) and by omission (Iran, Syria).
I hope our military Commanders read your columns.
Been asking a question of military friends for several years. What happens if Iran declares they have been forced to develop a “deliverable” nuclear weapon strictly for defensive purposes against unfair sanctions imposed by “The Great Satan” and simultaneously declares the Persian/Arabian Gulf closed to all but shorline nations to “preserve the peace.” How do we respond? Will it be a repeat of the Gulf of Sidra or will the US remain out due to the potential threat? With the current administration I suspect the latter.
i think we sail a carrier task force through the Gulf. it seems to me to be a forced move.
I have two general concerns, Michael. First, I am not quite as confident as you that the Green movement can go this alone. I continue to advocate fomenting an insurgency inside of Iran, and a campaign of targetted assassinations of certain leaders (like General Suleimani).
Second, it isn’t clear to me that even without the current regime in place, Iran will relinquish its ambition for nuclear weapons. Iran, as you know, has an awful lot of nationalistic pride. A nuclear Iran, even without the Mullahs in charge, is still not something to which I look forward. The ideology that created the Mullahs is still there.
hi Herschel, thanks for the thoughtful points. i totally aree that we should support the insurgency. i don’t think we need worry about assassination, even assuming we had the capacity to do it. The Iranian people will have many scores to settle with their tyrants…
on point 2, even if we knew the answer (which we don’t or at least I don’t) to the question, “what do the Greens want to do with the nuclear program?” it would still be a big step forward to have the Greens, rather than the mullahs, in charge.
“Asked why Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi–the two Green Movement leaders who have been held in isolation for more than ten months—Saeedi publicly stated that it can’t be done, because the two have such powerful support.”
I am currently reading the memoirs of a Russian dissident, Novodvorskaya. She noted that most of Soviet dissidents did not face trial, instead they were sent to phychiatric hospitals for “treatment” (i.e., torture). Many dissidents were literally driven to madness in those hospitals through the use of drugs and physical violence. Even Stalin’s Russia stopped with public trials because they were so difficult to organize.
If you think about it, keeping the Iranian dissidents in jail is a much smarter way of dealing with them than holding a public trial. Moreover, some of the dissidents can be forced to sign confessions. All in all, I would take the words of the Iranian gestapo with a grain of salt. I would even contend that this sounds a lot like disinformation. If the world (US, Israel) believes that Iranian regime is on the precipice, then it will most likely abstain from using the force to stop the nuclear program – and this is exactly what the mullahs want right now.
I remember a few months ago when the Moslem Brotherhood publicly stated that they did not have much support among the people and they were not thinking about participating in the presidential elections. And now, the Islamists have 70% of the parliament.
As San Tzu said – “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. ”
Good point, I see an unhappy population but also a submissive and cowed one, capable only of passive resistance in the face of regime that can’t be threatened only destroyed. Externally and internally weak but putting up a bold pretense. Like Hitler they can take the measure of the opposition, not that it is hard to do with Obama.
Michael,
I’ve tried to comment, but my post does not appear on this website. Am I am being banned or something?
Yes.
I’ve never been banned by a cat.
Destroying the leprous Iranian regime without firing a shot will be no mean feat, if it comes to pass. Unknowns include, what will the regime’s supporter nations, Russia, and China, do? Can they pull the evil regime’s coals out of the fire? Which will go first: Syria or Iran? Each one supports the other so either’s fall will weaken the other.
Some day, hopefully soon, the tipping point will be reached, and the mad mullahs will be permanently removed from power. There are black swans around every corner.
I am impressed with your account of the devastating impact of US financial and trading sanctions on the Iranian economy, and how it could, indeed, become a deadly convulsion. It raises a couple of questions: 1) Since the effects are so dramatically destructive, why have we waited so long to apply them? Can they not be as effective in Syria? Since they cost us nothing, wouldn’t early application be the best and quickest way to support the opposition? 2) Since any recourse we could take could only be enforced against U.S. owned companies or foreign firms dealing also with the U.S., could Iran not function, allbeit more expensively, with Russia, China, North Korea, Indonesia, etc.?
The Revolutioonary Guards’ Saeedi’s remarks certainly are remarkable. We can suppose that they did not get any circulation within Iran. They confirm just how close to the tipping point the Mullah’s regime must be. I am greatly surprised, in the light of your impassioned urging for support for the protesters, that you have serious doubts about what changes they might make. Also, the Ayatollahs near-panic brings to mind Hitler’s behavior when faced with defeat and probable demise: an effort to totally destroy his nation’s production facilities and infrastructure. A death spiral, most assuredly.
Michael:
Last week Saudi said it would make up for any shortfall of oil due to any closing of the Straits by Iran. If so, why wouldn’t the US get Saudi agreement to make up for any Iranian oil affected by the US sanctions (such as Japan’s)? It seems to be in the Saudi interest and it might work. Second, why does the US need 180 days to study these sanctions? Is it possible the US, over all these years, never once considered the possibility of such sanctions and hasn’t a clue as to what the expected results would be?
Unfortunately, we haven’t had a serious foreign policy for many years. “Today as ever, in public life as in private, leaving no favor unrewarded and no offense unpunished is the key to respect and a rule of life that you neglect at your risk.” –Angelo M. Codevilla, Advice to War Presidents. I highly recommended Codevilla’s great book. I will link to this from my Old Jarhead blog.
Robert A. Hall
Author: The Coming Collapse of the American Republic
All royalties go to help wounded veterans
For a free PDF of my book, write tartanmarine(at)gmail.com
The problem is this. In the 1950s we helped the opposition overthrow a communist leader in favor of the Shah, and because of that we got blamed for every aspect of the Shah’s regime that was in any way short of Utopia.
We want the Green Movement to overthrow the current evil rulers, but we want them to do it in a way that doesn’t make the U.S. look like an imperialist, and which doesn’t give the Green Movement’s enemies a chance to say that they’re nothing but stooges for the Americans.
In other words, we want the Green Movement to have power _because_ the people of Iran are mostly good, and not because the U.S. is imposing it against an evil population’s will.
well yes, but mainly I want an end to the Iranian regime because it is killing Americans every day. It’s called legitimate self defense, among other things.
Like so many other issues and challenges, any effective action by the U.S. Government vis-a-vis Iran will hinge on replacing Obama and his cohorts in November. I do not believe BHO has any intention of dealing effectively with the mullahs, his previous policies in 2009 indicating exactly that. Nothing BHO has done to date has strengthened U.S. influence or power on the planet, and nothing is likely to be done, excepting, perhaps, a ploy to enhance his chances of reelection.
When the Shah was deposed then Ayatollah Khomeini was installed which left us with no friendly faces in Iran at all, only a mob of mad mullahs. Isn’t it possible this same thing could happen again with the “greenies”? Couldn’t it inspire even more vicious actions towards the US and Israel? Or at this point do you consider any change to be a step in the right direction?
Now that Iran has uranium fuel rods (or so they say) I’m wondering if Israel has been readying their planes to do another bombing run.
i remember when folks said similar things about Yeltsin.
IRAN AND THE DOWNFALL OF ASSAD
Key to accelerating the downfall of Khamenei and the nuclear-to-be mullahs, and ending their dream of regional hegemony (this would be profoundly demoralizing), is the overthrow of Assad in Syria. It seems that this will not and cannot happen without a Libya style US/NATO intervention assisting rebel forces-which unfortunately are weakly supported in Syria. Contrary to Western press reports, and its anti-regime propaganda, Assad’s support among Syrians has grown since the start of the uprising ten months ago, up from 45% to 55%. A US/NATO no fly-zone over Syria is imperative to bringing down Assad and the mullahs after him.
Click my name to read more on this subject.
We have been at war with Iran for thirty years. Perhaps, their navy will be destroyed by morning.
Paul Hacket, this subject has been dealt with extensively and personal slurs are not welcome here.
Mr Ledeen please visit Iran by yourself and stop to write things you’re only hearing or reading about it from only one side.
mr russell, i’m not going to “visit Iran.” you understand, i hope. easy to get in, harder to get out.
and as for your research suggestion, i’m one of the world’s leading authorities on fascist Italy, and i never visited it, either. sheesh.