If we are going to win in the Middle East, we have to get the context right. As I wrote in The War Against the Terror Masters, long before the invasion of Iraq, we cannot just “do” a country like Iraq, or today, Syria, and then move on. That’s one of the strategic mistakes Bush, Rice, Hadley, Cheney and Rumsfeld made. They viewed Iraq in isolation. They thought they could just “do Iraq,” and then consider their options. We then belatedly discovered (even though our enemies publicly announced what they were going to do) that Iraq and Afghanistan could not have decent security so long as Syria and Iran actively supported terrorists in those countries. American soldiers and countless Iraqi and Afghan civilians have paid a terrible price for our failure of vision.
The regional war has expanded, but we still look at each battle field in isolation, rather than seeing the war whole:
- Israel has been invaded, and is under constant rocket attack;
- The shooting war in Libya, where American pilots and trainers conducted operations, and others trained and helped organize the anti-Qadaffi campaign;
- We have declared diplomatic and economic war on the Assad regime in Syria, just as we began with Qadaffi’s regime in Libya;
- The war against the Kurds: Turkey now routinely bombs and invades PKK camps in Iraqi Kurdistan, while Iran shells and invades the same region. We are directly involved on this battlefield; we’ve been providing intelligence to the Turks on the Kurds since at least 2007;
- The violence against our troops, and against our allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, is relentlessly increasing.
To date, insofar as we have had a regional strategy, it has largely been based on wishful thinking, even when applied to more than one problem at a time. The administration hoped that Syria would choose friendship with us rather than strategic alliance with Tehran, that Tehran would accept our “outstretched hand” rather than continue to wage its 32-year old terror war against us, that Turkey would be our proxy ambassador to Syria and Iran, helping us to “peel off’ Assad from the mullahs and to convince Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to be reasonable about nukes, and that Obaman diplomacy would bring an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. None of it worked.
To be sure, there was nothing new about most of that; Obama was simply embracing the failed dreams of the two Bushes and the Clintons. The only difference was timing: the others slowly came to believe that a Grand Bargain with Iran and Syria was doable, while Obama started with that fantasy. All believed—and perhaps some of our policy makers still believe—that Turkey was a friend and would support our goals.
What happens when an administration’s dreams are shattered? In a very important article in the Weekly Standard, Stephen Hayes and Tom Jocelyn suggest the administration may have drawn the obvious conclusions from the failure of wishful thinking, and may now be changing course. “With the public accusations that Iran is harboring the next generation of al Qaeda leadership and is facilitating the operation of al Qaeda’s key pipeline for funding and operatives,” they suggest, “the Obama administration seems to be saying that this conciliatory approach has now come to an end.” It’s a bit clearer with Syria; we are now publicly committed to regime change in Damascus.
The vision is still lacking because what everyone knows but is afraid to say is that the enemy is Islam the battle is Islam the battlefield is the whole earth. We cant just”do” a country like Iraq and leave.
It is correct that such action will not leave that country in security. When we “do” a country we must totally crush and eliminate Islam in that country before we leave. Sounds crazy you say? Maybe, but not as crazy as saying you are going to create an Islamic state that is a western style democracy which respects the rights of everyone. Now that’s crazy. There are no dissident communities in the Middle East that will support us after we support them and their quest for power.
By definition Islam seeks to destroy every other belief system. No amount of wishful thinking will change that fact.
The ONLY examples of an Islamic country getting along with non Muslims are when they did’t follow Islam. Considering that, the lives of ordinary people in Libya will in all likelihood be worse than they were under Kadhafy, as will the Egyptians be worse off than they were under Mubarak.
After the unmitigated evil we have seen from Islam in the last ten years (not to mention the previous 1400 years) it defies logic that any intellectually honest person would still be talking about accommodation with Islam. We really must join the battle and destroy Islam. It really is going to be us or them.
You’re right, Chuck, but it’s even worse. Most dedicated Muslims will say to your face that the only way to world peace is a completely islamized planet. Only then will all of use be happy. They truly believe this.
Now: are we to believe that the various governments on our side of the fence are not aware of this? In Europe they knew this in the past, or do the leftist fools that today make up most of the governments in the so-called free world think that the Austrians about 250 years ago stopped the onslaught of the Turks in their part of the world just for the fun of it?
In view of this, the question needs to be asked why the left always caters to those whose aim it is to destroy us. Always, because in the more recent past they’ve catered just as much to the Nazis (before WW2) and Soviets as they are catering to the islamofascists today. Maybe Obama and George Soros know the answer to this question.
Now I understand Jeremiah 8:11 http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Jeremiah%208:11&version=NIV
Agree 100%. What we are seeing right now is the beginning stages of a worldwide caliphate in action. Everyone of these countries that has fallen has implemented sharia law. Even secular Turkey is now a sharia state. Soon they will blackmail the world over energy. Biggest mistake of the 20th century was to give over the oil fields to these barbarians.
The enemy of western civilization is Islam which is a totalitarian political system with religious cover. Islam will continue to expand without serious resistance from the rest of the world. The United States, which is in the grip of political correctness, will respond only to the more explicitly violent conduct of the Islamic movement. The stealth jihad will continue apace in the middle east and in America aided and abetted by an American president who is either a Muslim or a Muslim sympathizer.
If the “us” in your “it’s them or us” refers to Western Civilization as in Judeo Christianity, I’m with you brother. The duplicitous, thieving, murdering, scavenging Muslim bastards have declared religious war on us. Jews and Christians alike have to take up arms against them.
Israelis are on the front lines. Young American Jews of what Teddy Roosevelt called the “Macabee type” when he called on them for service, both as New York cops and as Rough Riders need to step forward again. The last time the number of American Jews serving in the American Armed Forces exceeded their proportion of the American population was the Spanish American War to kick the Spanish Crown and the Spanish Church forever out of the Americas. Time again to do the right and patriotic thing both as Americans and as a Jews. Jewboy, ROTC wants you.
As for our Christian friends and neighbors, they must hark to what the Muslims call them. Crusaders. Christian Americans need to answer the Muzzys with the traditional Hebrew response: “Hineni”. “Here I am, Lord.” Christians need to take up arms in aid of the Cross.
David, the “us” I refer to most certainly is Western Civilization as derived from the Judeo Christian Tradition. Jews, Christians and every one else who values freedom must unite to put an end to Islam.
That is not crazy talk, that is survival talk.
There is no doubt the charges you make are true yet it is impossible to destroy Islam. You must first recognize it is here to stay and only then can you develop a practical solution to the problems and threats it poses today.
It is also important to understand that democracy does not work when it is applied like a bandage.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/147116#.TlO4Oc1lYjw
Son of Jacob, how is it that you can believe that the coming of the Messiah is near, yet still believe that Islam is indestructible? Has not the destruction of all the enemies of Israel been prophesied, and in particular, the very nations which Islam now controls?
That’s a big problem with Israel and her feckless leaders who are too busy serving and worshiping their false god on the Potomac.
They see the Holy One of Israel as too small to look to for peace and to cut off the memory of Islam forever.
And this is why things are going from bad to worse for Israel.
Their faith is misplaced,as they trust in lies and a false peace from a false ally instead of God.
Marcel, israel’s leadership is not as naive as you think.
While I agree that Hashem is the only ally we can count on it is worth remembering that not every weapon is made in Israel and that munitions from foreign sources are something we need.
Even David needed to put a rock in his sling.
My beliefs regarding the Messiah do not coincide with what you believe.
However as far as Islam is concerned , it may become changed, it may be abandoned, there are many possibilities. Those possibilities exist across a panoply of religions and are not limited to Islam.
Until the Messiah appears, once again from my Jewish perspective, it is up to us to make the world better.
I agree with you 100% and the people here who say that you have to destroy Islam are not thinking this through. There are over one billion of them, making that goal rather difficult. However, destroying their CAPACITY to make war is much easier. And even then, we shy from it. Does Egypt really NEED those 10 or twenty tank divisions? How about Libya? Algeria? Syria? Iran? No, not really. How about those F-16 squadrons? Or Mirages or whatever.
EVERYONE of those countries, from Morocco to Indonesia is armed to defend itself against their own countrymen first, then to deal with external threats. Were one to systematically remove each country’s ability to suppress it’s population. you would see a rapid turnover of governments. Yes, they wouldn’t be favorable to us in the beginning, but if each were isolated and prevented from rearming you would see the ordinary people on the street begin to figure it out. And if they don’t, isolate them completely. No fly zones. No exit visas. No emigration to the promised lands. Nothing.
And while we’re at it, no imports and certainly no exports. There is enough reserve capacities of petroleum and NG around the world that we could outlast them. In addition, no pharmaceuticals, no technology, no autos/trucks. Nothing.
As you can see, a war would not be necessary. Determined isolationism, while uncomfortable for us, would devastate all Islamic societies. Until, they got with the program.
Chuck and the others on this first post are right Mr. Ledeen. You’re analysis of the region is a broad view our rudderless leader should, but won’t, pay attention to. However, you fail to address the question of Islam and Islamism in these Middle Eastern hell holes. Are the freedom loving democrats there any match for these ghoulish barbarians? And if not, with the exception of the Theocracy in Iran, why should we support their takeover of these dictatorships?
i was one of those who worked in the Reagan Administration to defeat the Soviet Empire. In those years there was a similar debate over the nature of the “enemy.” were we fighting The USSR–a geopolitical superpower–or a vast global ideological movement “international communism”? that debate was never resolved, and we fashioned strategies on both fronts. but as it turned out, when the Soviet Empire was defeated, most of the air went out of the communist balloon, and i rather suspect it will be the same with jihadism. the jihadis claim that God is on their side. so what happens to that central conviction when they lose to the infidels? most muslims are not jihadis, and would welcome their defeat, and the true believers would have to come to terms with the meaning of their defeat. i think that an American retreat from the Middle East would be a big mistake–would make things worse–and so I keep looking for ways to win the war. I do wish that those who talk solely in terms of military action would take the time to read what i write, which is that political revolution is a better way to win the war. IMHO the regime in Iran–the keystone of the jihadi edifice–would be long gone if we had supported the insurrection there. Paradoxically, the “anti war” crowd that wants to retreat and wash our hands of the whole mess, makes shooting wars far more likely as more violence is unleashed against us and our (actual and would-be) friends, and options narrow.
Is it really Iran that’s the cornerstone of jihadism … or Saudi Arabia?
both are important, but iranian killers and proxies have undoubtedly killed more Americans.
‘IMHO the regime in Iran–the keystone of the jihadi edifice–would be long gone if we had supported the insurrection there.’
Think about this Michael.
If the U.S. had not interfered and restrained Israel(under a Republican president) and allowed Israel to defeat Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hizbollah in the summer of 2006 and again the other proxy army of Iran,Hamas in Gaza in early January of 2009 maybe Iran’s local prestige and stock in the region could have been on the down side.
Playing both sides instead of being true to our only real ally has brought us
to the hypocrites hall of shame across the globe
We need to look in the mirror to see who the meddlesome enemy is.
T.T. Thomas, the comments section is not an invitation to trash the host. your mother should have taught you better manners. I don’t post personal insults to anyone if I catch them, and certainly not insults aimed at me.
yes Chuck we must erradicate islam. completely and totaly. we must annihlate islam, it is an evil cult. not a religion,
Absolutely, I could not have said it more eloquently.
Iran, Iran, Iran…. They attacked the wrong country in 2003. Rather they attacked few evil countries.
This is why we should all emulate Norman Podhoretz and start referring to the as-yet-not-properly-named war we are in as World War IV. (WWIII, of course, having been the “Cold War”.)
The left is always coining phrases to use the language to its advantage, (for example, “capitalism” which is not even an “-ism” at all but rather just human nature in action, was a pejorative term coined by Marx), and it’s high time we of the anti-left started doing the same.
While I agree with you, I suggest (even though it’s a little bit confusing) that the war of Islam against the world is actually the FIRST World War. It was on hiatus for a time, but has since been revived by the Islamists in this century. Nothing less than total control of the whole world is the goal of Islam.
Technically you’re right — the war of Islam against the rest of the world certainly predates our 20th Century conflicts, but you’re also right that to try to call it the “First World War” would be confusing (to put it mildly) — it’ll be hard enough to get “WW IV” into common usage.
But one thing’s for sure — the bloody thing needs to be given a fitting name. You can’t fight (much less hope to win) a war in which neither the enemy or even the war itself can be given a proper NAME…..
I was hoping that someone serious would remind us to support the Kurds.
Thank you.
Amen.
I’ll second that Amen.
….. ” it defies logic that any intellectually honest person would still be talking about accommodation with Islam” Yep, that’s exactly right. In that case, I would suggest that there’s not an intellectually honest person in the Obama administration. While being big on campaign rhetoric; some of Obama’s advisors are themselves Islamists and his administration reflects their influence.
The people of Egypt are now faced with the evil of the MB and implementation of Sharia. They’ll soon be fed up with that and wishing that Mubarak WAS back.
Iraq? Taking away Iran’s ability to utilize Iraq as a gateway to Syria and an easier path to Israel was a good idea … but it’s still a tough place to be as the “resistance” is still causing trouble; and it probably won’t stop until they get their way when Obama pulls out of Iraq. after that; it a highway straight to the attempted destruction of Israel which is Adminanutjob’s dream come true.
Bottom line: We have a president that is playing a very dangerous game with Islam; his advisors are our enemies NOT our friends. The POTUS’s WH advisors are using their influence so as to WIN this global strategy against the West – US.
“Yes, it’s a lot to do. But it’s a big war. And we’re a big country. It’s a challenge worthy of us, and we should embrace it.”
I hate to break it to you Michael Ledeen; but the WH is the place to start dealing with Islam. THEN; and only THEN can we begin to slay the enemy. We are impotent with Obama; even CAIR are allowed to operate; Mjr Nidal Hasan is still drawing military pay … The U.N. are telling what to do…PC generals are “fighting” the war and they’re hamstrung from the get-go, and on and on it goes. But hey; I’m glad you woke up to the global threat of Islam, and now at least people are reading about a bigger theater of war. So let’s embrace “it” beginning right here at home and take care of our Islamic problem here; THEN we’ll have put the rest of Islam on formal notice and the games can begin.
When Major Nidal Malik Hasan, a Muslim US Army psychiatrist killed 13 fellow US military personnel at Fort Hood and the head of the armed forces places diversity over the lives of his men that’s the warning that all is not well.
Here’s what he said and should send a shudder through every soldier or, for that matter, every American citizen……….
“Our diversity, not only in our Army, but in our country, is a strength. And as horrific as this tragedy was, if our diversity becomes a casualty, I think that’s worse,” Casey said.’
So there you have it an American Military leader more interested in politically correct mumbo jumbo that actually doing what he’s employed to do, namely protecting the US from it’s enemy.
Unfortunately he was not only incapable of protecting citizens but has the distinction of being unable to protect his very own people. That, in the cold light of day is so boggling that it defies any logic.
But back to the term ‘enemy’.
According to Casey and the myriad of useful idiots down that pyramid of power, there is no ‘enemy’, after all Islam is a religion of peace and we’d better believe it. Why, even the evil, arch neocon GWB told us so.
So hunkering down against this amorphous unthreatening threat is as futile as battling the invisible man, or to be precise a whole army of them.
May as well, if we are to believe Casey, throw in the towel now. Game over. We surrendered and lost not because they won but because we opened those gates and in they came, pouring in unopposed to take the spoils of 2000 years of Western civilisation.
And that’s how it ends. Not with a bang. Not so much a whimper even, but with the welcome mat and a pot of halal coffee on the stove.
Totally true Chuck. It is the same as with Japan in WWII. Until you defeated “god”, the Emperor, you had a bunch of people believing they had a god given right to rule, conqueor, etc. It’s sad and laughable that the people in charge of foreign policy are advocating and facilitating the overthrow of dictators who are not good people, but in the scheme of what is good for our nation, are better than what will fill the void, meaning Islamism, Jihad, world domination, etc.
You are right Darrell, The comparison of Islam to Imperial Japan and its fanaticism is much closer to reality than is Mr. Leeden’s comparison to the fall of the Soviet Union.
The unconditional surrender of Imperial Japan paved the way for a western style democracy, while the Soviet Union and communism are down but not out.
Communism was little more than a hundred years old when the Soviet Union collapsed, while Islam has been brainwashing its adherents and destroying their ability to think since the seventh century.
The Russians had been trying to be part the European family for at least a couple of centuries before the Bolshevik Revolution. Their was a collective memory of a different way. No such collective memory exists in Islamic countries.
Anything less than the complete destruction of Islam will accomplish nothing, and the idea that anything less can bring about peace is hogwash.
“If Tehran has to choose between Syria and Turkey, the mullahs will choose Syria.”
Very, very, true. And I think the Turks just found this out the hard way. They were making all these noises about “invading” Syria unless Assad stopped killing his own people, even going so far as saying that they would set up a “buffer zone” to protect the Syrians trying to escape from Assad. Both Iran and Syria slapped down that idea and notice how quickly the Turks folded like a cheap tent. Turkey has not fought a major war since 1918 and they’re not about to start one over Syrian refugees. Forget that. And Iran needs Syria way more than it needs Turkey, because strategically Syria can be used to keep weapons flowing to Hezbollah in Lebanon and it can be used to threaten Israel. Turkey can’t even come close to doing any of that. So Iran made Turkey run away with its tail between its legs and is supporting Assad in Syria with everything it has.
But notice that Iranians are NOT sending regular army troops into Syria. The weasels get involved covertly, but never overtly by sending in regular army troops. Shows you that this doesn’t have much support inside Iran with the regular people, only the fanatics. People should notice this and keep up the pressure on the mullahs by supporting any popular uprisings inside of Iran. Not that Obama would ever do that.
No thanks, Michael. I don’t have time to refute everything so I’ll stay big picture on your article.
Islam, political correctness and the New World Order are the enemy. Helping the freedom fighters in any communist country or tyrannical dictatorship sounds good but it is damned hard unless you have strategic assets somewhere close.
I just don’t get why it is so great for our country to have a million servicemen and support people all over the world in military bases. You act as if God put us here to tell all of the world what to do and when to do it. I suggest we send all Muslims back to their home countries, drill for our own oil and concentrate on being a God centered country again.
Term limits for our leaders, a gold standard and we send food, missionaires and the Peace Corps out instead of guns and bullets and mountains of cash.
We could hardly do worse.
I don’t need to post anything now, because you said it for me. Thanks. Would only add that until our own house is in order, we should get out of the middle east hellhole.
‘Islam, political correctness (Left) and the New World Order are the enemy’
The reason they are so united is because they serve the same Master (god)haSatan,the father of lies.
This is why the U.S. Government is so friendly towards Islam starting with the first iftar at the White House with Bush 2 and continuing to import hundreds of thousands of questionable Muslims into the U.S., many who are later arrested for terrorist attacks in the U.S. while Janet Napolitano targets grandma and little blond Bill and Jane as terrorist threats.
When you say we have a regional approach I think you are missing the point. We have an approach that lacks any serious ideological underpinning at all. We are a country based on INDIVIDUAL freedom as enshrined in our founding documents but continue to support countries (eg. Afganistan, Libyan rebels now)that have no intention of supporting freedom. When Sharia is enshrined in their Constitution we should walk. Quickly. NO TAX monies for countries that can’t bring themselves to support our First Amendment. NONE. Until that time, we will continue to be confused about our role in the world.
‘Regime change in Syria and Iran would be a godsend for our travails in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as for the increasingly irrelevant peace process’
‘American soldiers and countless Iraqi and Afghan civilians have paid a terrible price for our failure of vision.’
failure of vision – blindness
It’s the U.S. which has led the way in making sure the next war will be nuclear by restraining Israel against her intractable neighbors.
‘Israel lacks the international legitimacy needed for a large-scale operation in Gaza.’
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/netanyahu-tells-cabinet-israel-lacks-legitimacy-for-major-gaza-operation-1.380121
A better translation of this Israeli government statement is ;
1. We don’t have permission to act as it may endanger President Obama’s vacation 2. Jews do not have legitimacy to defend themselves any longer against the Islamic hordes any longer,we must go silently to our awaiting destiny.
One constant in all of this has been the U.S. coming to the rescue of the Islamic hordes and stealing victory from Israel.
Since 1982 when President Reagan came to the rescue of Yasser Arafat in Beirut when IDF snipers had a bullet ready for his head. Thanks to the U.S he was safely shipped off to Tunisia from where he later made his entrance into Israel’s heartland thanks to the U.S. led peace scheme to create another totally unnecessary extremist Islamic state in Israel’s heartland.
It was President G.W. Bush ,always kissing on his Saudi lover who restrained Israel and made the Hamas take over of Gaza a reality and who made sure Israel did not complete the job of defeating Hizbollah IN 2006 and Hamas IN 2009.
Look how radical Egypt’s street has become against Israel without the restraint of a strong leader like Mubarak.
I received a message from a Saudi citizen this morning that says it all ;
Keep in mind that it is the U.S. which is making their agenda possible by removing the strong men like Saddam,Mubarak,Qaddafi who were a powerful restraining force against the Arab/Islamic street.
Mow they are ‘free’ to do their hearts desire thanks to you know who!
fu*#ke israel ….. now , we are free from your clients …. mubarak and libyan and BASHAR AL- assad …. now we are free and then .. we well kill you … we are coming palastine
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=zionsgates&view=comments&feature=email
http://www.youtube.com/user/MILITO110
Marcel, your statement that Yasser Arafat was protected by the West is true, but the question is WHY. My belief is that Arafat was indeed deliberately protected by direct request of Israel for one reason — Arafat was so utterly militarily incompetent, and so utterly personally corrupt, that Israel desperately wanted him to stay “leader” of the terrorists; because if Arafat had been assassinated, someone actually smart enough to be truly dangerous might take over.
Israel has the best assassination teams in the world (except maybe for the GRU), and could have put down Arafat any time they wished, but Arafat’s schemes were so easy to defeat repeatedly, and it was also so easy to humiliate him (and his whole Muslim movement) repeatedly, that he was worth his weight in golden camel poop to stay leader.
Marcel, You can post this and tell them we are ready any time. MBY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIScMjray0U
Well it will have to wait. Obama takes his cues from the EU and the UN, which are fed directly, via satellite, to TOTUS.
Iraq has only ever been a proxy war with Iran: we beat Iraq in the first days. Now, thanks to Obama’s mendacity and incompetence, the enemy has been given the chance to metastasize, and we are now closer to WWIII than we were a year ago.
This time is not going to be so easy. We no longer manufacture anything we need, and I doubt the Chinese will want to lend us the dough.
Yep.
I have to wonder if the only thing that we are supposed to bring to the picnic is the “flesh and blood;” America’s young men used as cannon fodder.
Others will make money off our supreme sacrifice, like the chicken who supplies the egg, expecting the pig to be okay with supplying the bacon.
No thanks. Support Israel; yes. Fight for Muslim caliphates; no.
Chuck said it all. But is anyone listening? If I were looking to start a new business I would go into the blinders manufacturing trade. More people prefer wearing blinders than facing reality. There is a lot of money to be made in selling blinders.
This has always been a problem with political and military planners. The temptation to think tactically instead of strategically.
Tactical planning is short term. Strategic planning is more long term.
The former wins battles, the latter wins wars.
tactical nukes clear the battlefield.
strategic nukes keep in clear.
The Arab world is in upheaval and the situation is still developing, but the real problems of the Arab world are not being addressed nor can they be, and they will both plague and destabilize any new regime in Libya, Egypt, Syria, the Arab regimes of the Maghreb, and eventually the regimes of the Persian Gulf.
Those problems are huge and growing populations of young adults and children who have no hope of jobs, decent diets, adequate medical and health care, or personal success but who are aware that the governments of the developed world provides all of these things for most of their citizens.
And those problems are only going to get much, much worse and very, very quickly.
There is no fix for any of these problems either.
Bring all the troops home from the mid east, Europe, Asia et al. Bring home American troops so that they can fight the impending war against Islam that is about to break out in American cities and countryside. Defend the country now; tomorrow is too late. Get rid of the traitors in our government and military. Obama and Hilary Clinton are two of the biggest supporters of Islamic aggression in the world.
#8….
This is very, very well said:
….”I just don’t get why it is so great for our country to have a million servicemen and support people all over the world in military bases. You act as if God put us here to tell all of the world what to do and when to do it. I suggest we send all Muslims back to their home countries, drill for our own oil and concentrate on being a God centered country again.”
The defense of our American assets can be best be attended to by mobile chosen forces, either sea-bourne or remote controlled from within our own borders. Maintaining the required logistics of worldwide bases is insanely expensive.
We don’t have unlimited resources.
We can’t get distracted by the Middle East kooks. The much bigger war is the war against our internal marxists. If we don’t win that one, it doesn’t matter what happens in the ME, the US is toast anyway. And if we do defeat the marxists, the ME can be made irrelevant with two simple actions. Start drilling, and bomb Iran’s nukes. Of course, we should also insure Israel’s security, but we have been doing that anyway up to 2009.
It isn’t even worth it to try to figure the ME nutters out. We owe Iraq some additional protection, but for the rest, let them kill themselves. In every case, just like we did in Afghanistan, we can go in to remove some particularly troublesome fanatics. Of course, it might be useful to keep an eye on them, instead of assuming they are “just like us”.
Ultimately, Islam is destined for the graveyard of history. It’s just a matter of when some power in the West or East gets fed up enough to flush the toilet, and which one will pull the handle.
The Globalist agenda will not be fulfilled through peace.If you can figure out what needs to be done to solve the problem, what makes you think with their resources they haven’t? Do WE Dare Call It A Conspiracy?
Surprise, we are up against an implacable foe, who would have thought it? They have only been at it for 1400 years. I do believe our media and those in liberal[?] circles are more hesitant to refer to this constant enemy of civilization, or what’s left of it, as the religion of peace. I wonder how they will explain this away as things get worse? Ah, blame the Tea Party. It is telling that the left holds more hate for domestic, civil opposition then for islamist murderers. Obama certainly does.
This will drag on for years, the mistakes that Bush/Rumsfeld made being dwarfed by the intentional and not so sly acceptance of the American left.
Michael,
I agree wholeheartedly, You can’t look each event event in isolation, all those
individual battlefields are part of one big ME war. U.S is reaping what UK had sow at the end of WWI. Unfortunately U.S locked itself in a 1920′s time capsule where the entire ME considered as one big nomad’s desert with oil. From the beginning the entire ME map was design around oil whiteout any regard to local population, and now we are seeing the the result.
The Ottomans ruled the region for 500 years simple by brutal force. But by the end of 19th century they too realized that they could not any longer ruled a very diverse population. Sooner or latter the entire ME map will be redrawn around ethnic, religious and its natural bounders. It will not be easy, it will be very bloody and no one will be able stop it, anyone who will get involved will pay a big price in terms of blood and treasure. The best U.S can do is to develop its own energy resources and let the chips fall where they may.
Once again, the US and NATO in Libya, deliberately CHOSE the most extremist Islamic elements to wage war for.
The Al-Qaeda rebels who MURDER our soldiers in Iraq won the war. They won because US/NATO waged war for months for the violent Al-Qaeda rebels-considered allies by US/NATO.
World Net Daily, August 6, 2011:
He got bin Laden, so why can’t Obama take out this clown?
The Warfalla tribe – one of the largest in Libya – is being joined by other tribes to fight the rebels because of what is described as indiscriminate killing of civilians by Western alliance-backed troops.
The sources said that Qatari troops, tanks and helicopters “are openly killing these unarmed tribal members. They have their Qatari tanks in the streets of Benghazi. They are actively shooting on unarmed civilians.”
NATO bombing was being extended without authorization to attack non-military targets.
http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=330341
US/NATO leaders who waged ruthless war in Libya for the rebels for months winning victory for CRUEL MONSTERS-rebels; are responsible for rescuing every single one of these horribly abused kidnapped children. G-D help the children!
World Net Daily, August 13, 2011 Missing: Where are the children now?
Rebel takeover prompts questions about kidnappings, slavery, torture
There are persistent reports that children from government-run homes for orphans and abused children are missing and feared kidnapped, possibly tortured and sold, by rebels who recently took the town of Misrata in the western part of Libya near its capital of Tripoli.
Sources in Tripoli say that these children are some of more than 1,000 who have disappeared over the past six months since rebels entered Misrata and “went on a killing spree.”
There also are reports of rebels torturing children.
http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=331973
Linda Rivera, similar claims have been made during combat from time immemorial, and sometimes they are true. Mostly they turn out to be invented propaganda. Most of the claims about the behavior of American troops in Iraq were false, although some were confirmed (and the perps were mostly punished). Let’s try to stay awake and check them out as the sand settles…
It appears you misunderstood. It is NOT US/NATO that committed these evil acts. It is the Muslim rebels. However, as US/NATO waged war for the Muslim rebels, US/NATO now have the responsibility to rescue the terrified children.
The founder of Islam, Mohammad, murdered/beheaded several hundred Jewish men because of the Jews’ love for, and allegiance to the One G-D, our Creator. Jews refused to follow another god and the new religion of Mohammad.
Mohammad was a HUGE slave trader and is regarded by Muslims who follow their religion as the perfect man and role model. That is why Muslims take slaves to this present day. In Sudan, hundreds of thousands of Black Christian Sudanese women and children have been taken for slaves by Sudan’s Arab Muslims.
MAY EVERY SLAVE BE FREE ONE DAY!
Jihad Slavery in Sudan, with Dr Charles Jacobs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NP4Fcx7AE_o
May every kidnapped victim be free one day! G-D help these innocents!
Your use of that map of the Middle East is perfect. A picture is worth a 1,000 words, etc.
We all know how woefully ignorant the vast STUPID wing of Americans are, when it comes to history, and I’m sure MEGO rules when it comes to geography. At the age of 69, as one who has long closely followed current events as a fascinating “hobby”, it was only a few years ago I even bothered to look at a map to once and for all know the difference between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank!
So, I’ll bet the percentage of Americans who are aware in detail of the Israel “problem”, is in the low single digits. Thus, what’s direly needed is some continuing edification!
As I read you, today, my mind instantly flashed on the American Revolution and the American Civil War. The dominant thought was that lines on earth basically mean NOTHING.
The essence is perhaps the ultimate either-or—freedom or slavery.
Right now, as I peruse the world map on my wall, the core FACT that there are even ANY lines, aka boundaries, between separated countries provokes a call to wondering—where did they come from?
And, of course, humans always go from family groupings to tribal ones, and the animal drive for territorial imperative MUST prevail. That’s MINE, and not YOURS!
Thus, the unfolding, over time, of humans scurrying over land has resulted in what is the present status quo—pretty obvious, eh?
The other basic reality is stages of political and economic growth, which I believe go together like a horse and carriage.
Who can doubt what the stage is in the Middle East?
(An aside—just read “Miraculous Healing” by Andrew Weil M.D., number one bestseller in 1995. He expands, wisely, on a hoary saying—“As above, so below. As below, so above.” Now, of course, he was writing about individual health, albeit from a non-conventional point of view.)
Perhaps we could usefully apply the above-below understanding to the unhealthy political condition in the Middle East, not to mention most other places on earth—even in Washington D.C.!
Below, we have the higher stage INDIVIDUALS, who want, and fight for, their freedom; and above we have the most highly evolved GROUPS, led by the freedom-loving USA.
And, in every “country”, defined by lines-in-the-sand called boundaries, there exists a range of INDIVIDUALS, from freedom fighters to enslaving “devils”.
Maybe we’re starting to see and experience the growing pains of mankind, as a whole, as the “lead from below” individualists, who are situated in every “country”, having been awakened by the World Wide Web of information about what is REALLY now possible, are making their move.
The freedom to CHOOSE, which each individual who’s not brainwashed certainly desires—do you need someone to tell you when and how to brush your teeth, once you grow up and leave home?—seems to be thrusting up from BELOW, one person at a time, across the earth, and striving to be the essence of the ABOVE, aka the governments that such free people want!
“I want to be free! Why shouldn’t my government be based on THAT desire?”
That is the below-above TRUTH!
Racist CRUEL MONSTERS-rebels in Libya are perpetrating genocide against Blacks and committing horrific atrocities against innocent children. US/NATO leaders who waged war for months for the rebel monsters are responsible for every evil act of the rebels. In the terrifying New World Order, which defenseless innocents are targeted next by US/NATO/UN?
Benghazi “Rebels” Lynching Blacks In Libya
Black Star News
July 23, 2011
Watch this linked video of an anti-Black lynch mob and you will understand why The New York Times, CNN, The Washington Post, the BBC and other major news organizations have never followed up on The Wall Street Journal’s June 21 article about ethnic cleansing of Black Libyans in Misurata by the “Brigade for the purging of slaves, Black Skin.”
That Brigade, of Libya’s so-called rebels, backed by NATO and the White House, eliminated the Black population of Misurata and promised to do the same to Black Libyans once they seized control of the city of Tawergha, 25 miles away.
Major news outlets are deliberately ignoring or downplaying the racialist-motivated atrocities against Black people being committed by the terroristic “rebels.”
blackstarnews.com/news/122/ARTICLE/7536/2011-07-23.html
Mr. Ledeen, you make a very good point about how, and where, we oppose radical Islam.
There is and has been a distinct lack of understanding of basic military/strategic principles in choosing our targets and pursuing campaigns vigorously to successful conclusions. Libya is a sideshow; Syria is far more important. Iraq was, to an extent, a target of opportunity that could have been contained; Iran is the true danger. Afghanistan could have been pulverized but fast, and then left alone with a warning that we would return and do it again if they harbored AQ again, rather than this endless, enervating conflict.
There is no true direction, no focus.
right, allston, it’s a version of whack-a-mole.
In a sentence, yeah, “whack a mole” it is (wish I had said that – it describes it perfectly).
It’s as if our crucial strategic/national/political targets are being decided by Ouija Boards and the consensus of people huffing Nitrous Oxide. Just witless and directionless. I was a only a flipping E-5 in the Army, yet I seem to have more understanding of simple doctrine and decisive targets than the entire body of “experts” who control events nowadays.
Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot???
The Left for decades never seems to think that our enemies are as bad as our so called military-industrial complex or even our free enterprise system. Whether it was the Soviets, Mao, Castro,we were the instigators. Now in the ME, we have Islamofascists, Muslim Bros, Al Queda, Hamas, the Pals, all working toward more turmoil NOT an Arab Spring. They want to con America …again. We have no idea , Obama sure doesn’t , whether Libya, Egypt , Syria will accept a more democratic-capitalism, or be Quislinged into more underground Islamofascism which Dems will chortle about telling us what a brilliant CIC, Obama is. Nonsense. They alwasy dis our allies like Britain and Israel but love ,just love those poor Pals, or some other rebel group who secretly or not so…are the cats’ paw for Iran.
I disagree Sir.
We here in America are seeing what the CFR globalist types want. A region ruled/controled by the Muslim Brotherhood. Why elce would the global government help Muslims attack the governments of Egypt, Libya, Syria, etc…
Billery at State will tell you she supports global human rights to be free. But, not the rights given by G-d in out constitution. Rights given by the State, and taken away by the State is what she really means. Plus, this regional Arab spring of murder is to make a Arab union with one coin.
THE ISLAMIC WORLD WAR
The Free World is finally waking up to the fact that Islam’s prime directive is the militant conquest of the entire world, inspired by Allah and mandated by Muhammed in the Koran and this Hadith: Allah’s Apostle Muhammed said “I have been ordered to fight the people till they say: ‘None has the right to be worshipped but Allah’” – Bukhari (8:387)
CAN IT BE ANY MORE CRYSTAL CLEAR?
Muhammeds minions have been dutifully following this mandate for 1,400 years, since the time Muhammed left Mecca for Medina . What we are facing is nothing less than an ISLAMIC WORLD WAR that rages on every continent except Antarctica , against everyone and everything “non-Islamic”.
Let’s look at the FACTS. Islam against:
- the Catholics in the Philippines (routine slaughter & beheadings)
- the Christians in Indonesia (routine slaughter & beheadings)
- Australian tourists in Bali (blown up…twice)
- the Buddhists in Thailand (routine slaughter & beheadings)
- the Hindus & Sikhs in India (hundreds of years battling the Islamic Jihad)
- the Jews in Mumbai (slaughtered)
- the Zoroastrians & Baha’i in Iran (virtually exterminated)
- Islamic converts to Christianity in Afghanistan (death fatwa)
- ancient Buddhist statues in Bamiyan, Afghanistan (blown up)
- the Chaldean Christians in Iraq (routine persecution, slaughter & church burnings)
- the Jews in Israel (routine attacks against civilians, threat of 2nd genocide)
- the Jews in Yemen (nearly exterminated)
- S. Korean & German tourists in Yemen (blown up)
- the Coptic Christians in Egypt (routine persecution, slaughter & church attacks)
- the Christians & animists in Sudan (genocide)
- the Christians in Kenya (constant Jihadist threat from Obama’s homies)
- the Christians in Nigeria (routine Jihadist attacks)
- U.S. embassies in Tanzania & Kenya (blown up)
- the athiests in Europe (the prime target)
- the native French in Paris (torched car terrorism)
- Jews in Paris (read the grisly story of Ilan Halimi, a Jewish shop clerk who was kidnapped, tortured and killed in 2006)
- the native Swedes in Malmo (Islamic rape brigades)
- the native Dutch in Amsterdam (routinely terrorized)
- Dutch politicians (Geert Wilders & Ayyan Hirsi Ali – death fatwa)
- Dutch cinematographers (Theo vanGogh savagely murdered by an Islamist in broad daylight)
- Dutch cartoonists (Kurt Westergaard – death fatwa)
- Dutch newspaper editors (Flemming Rose, Jyllands-Posten’s culture editor – death fatwa)
- Train commuters in Spain (blown up)
- Tube commuters in London (blown up)
- Airports in Scotland (blown up)
- Jews in Argentina (blown up)
- Jews in Caracas (blown up)
- Twin Tower office workers in N.Y. (blown up – twice)
- Defense workers in the Pentagon (blown up – airliner jihad)
- Army/Navy military recruiters in Little Rock (gunned down by an Islamist)
- Soldiers in Ft Hood Texas (gunned down by an Islamist traitor)
- Pedestrians at the U. of N. Carolina (run down with an SUV by Islamist)
- Journalists like Daniel Pearl (savagely decapitated by Islamists)
- Nick Berg, Kim Sung-il, Piotr Stanczyk, Jack Hensley, Eugene Armstrong, Paul Johnson (savagely decapitated by Islamists)
- Jewish centers in Seattle (slaughtered by Islamic Jihadist)
- Jewish centers in Toronto (slaughtered by Islamic Jihadist)
- Infidel Delta Airlines passengers (underwear bomber)
And on, and on, and on……….
It is Islam against everyone, everything, everywhere that is not Islamic.
It is Dar al-Islam against Dar al-Harb. Islam against us, not us against them.
Let’s face the facts and call it what it is. It is not a ‘War on Terror’ against a few ragtag misunderstanders of Islam. It is nothing less than: THE ISLAMIC WORLD WAR.
THE ISLAMIC WORLD WAR – Muhammed’s legacy…..it’s real.
~ The Infidel Alliance
Another great post! But, according to the Bull Dike at Homeland inSecurity, it is white Christian Discharged Military clinging to their bible, and weapon that are the real problem.
I would write more, but I have to go clean my weapon, and read how to love my enemys. It is really hard to love those who want to cut my head off. I have a great desire to place a well aimed shot center mass on them instead of loving them.
- Jewish centers in Toronto (slaughtered by Islamic Jihadist)
I have to take issue with this item on your long list of atrocities committed by Muslims. I’m Canadian and live not too far from Toronto and I’m not aware of anyone in a Jewish center in Toronto being slaughtered by Islamic Jihadists.
There was a plot by Muslims living in the Toronto area to commit terrorist acts – I’m not sure if they planned to attack any Jewish centers – but it was foiled by the authorities, apparently fairly early on in the planning stages. I expect that is what you are referring to.
I challenge the basic assumption of this article – that somehow it’s to our advantage to change the middle east politically by expending our wealth and our young soldiers.
My own belief is that at this point in history, these people must do this for themselves. We’re past the the time when order could be brutally maintained like with the British Empire, and maintaining order and stability is the first rule – everything else must follow.
At this time, the best we can do is instill a fear in the dictators and rulers in that part of the world – that if the US is attacked by terrorists operating from their part of the world, then there will be serious consequences.
Should we have invaded Afghanistan – sure – 3 months tops – kick ass and hurt the Taliban for what they allowed, then get out. Our armed forces are real good at that. Was Saddam a threat? Everyone thought so at the time.
Go in, kick his ass good, get out – all in 3 months. That’s about the attention span of the American public and about how long strong support can be maintained. Plus, it’s what our military is REAL GOOD AT. Not nation building – we don’t allow them to maintain order at all cost, so we can’t do that.
Plus it would be far cheaper if we had mounted overwhelming campaigns in 2002/2003 and then pulled back. Even if we had to go back again and do it all over in 5-10 years, it would still be cheaper and cost less lives.
Rick H: you are rejecting something that I do not advocate. Please take the time to read. I oppose military action vs Syria or Iran.
I disagree that the military option is not the most likely stick to change the course of Iran. Every day we and NATO appear to retreat is another encouragement for the Mullahs. In fact, we should proceed in doing something we have not apparently tried to do despite doing “other things” are far more complicated (X-51, X-37). Without going into details, you take something very high up in the sky and then you make sure it comes down with more velocity than gravity produces alone. This is about the only thing that will go through Fordo. You demonstrate this capability and then perhaps the Mullahs will change their attitude. If you think we just don’t have that ability, I would argue you are wrong.
You certainly don’t allow Iran overflights of Iraq to supply Latikia. You don’t let Iran’s Navy access to the Suez. You make sure DEW and other technology counters the proliferation of missiles and air borne threats to our fleet and bases.
I would go as far as placing a serious asset in the Negev along with the power need to operate the technology involved. If we are going to save US soldiers and avoid fighting on the front lines, we certainly need overwhelming force that the enemy cannot match. Right now we don’t even have any Raptors in the air. Our bombers are old. We need to hitch a ride into space and our last minuteman missiles test ended in abort. The J-20 rolls to the crowds as Iran tests new weapons.
So you can tell us how the world community is going to stop Iran, but I rather doubt Iran cares about idle threats. They are pouring billions to keep their northern arm in place while they expand their southern arm around Yemen and up the Rea Sea.
Reagan’s track record in the Gulf was far from consistent or effective. In fact, he prevent a joint Israeli/India attack on the Pakistani reactor as well as condemn the Israeli attack on Saddam’s. Yep, despite the Iraqi attack on the USS Stark and the refusal of Saudi pilots to come to our aid which caused the Senate to hold up arms sales to KSA.
I have never heard of a major war that didn’t involve serious military force. I rather doubt the Israelis see this as a reasonable option.
R
FROM
G
M
have a chat with comrade Gorbachev, he knows how it works.
Are you advocating that unlike Reagan who actually moved forward with Neutron bombs until the Russians upgraded their tanks, we take that asset off the table? That our superiority wasn’t a rather big stick displayed in a major military build up designed to fight on two fronts? And you are telling us that Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs are as rational as the Russians?
That doesn’t fly and you know it. Gorby didn’t use terrorism because he knew where that went and while we’re at it, explain MAD to the readers. Explain how the lack of pure military targets meant we necessarily targeted civilians (just check the population distributions around their major industrial and military complexes). So then they hit us and we hit them and very quickly we all die. Is that what you are proposing for this new war? If that is the case, let’s give them the bomb and we can play MAD with the Mullahs.
Russia didn’t create proxies that attacked the US or Europe. Hamas declares it will seek revenge against anyone refusing to vote FOR Statehood. Did we really worry about the KGB planting a nuke in NYC? Does Congress fear AQ, HIzb’Allah, Hamas, Al-ISlam, the Taliban getting a hold of WMD? Why? What we see in this map of yours is a plan to establish plausible deniability. Turkey is more interested in killing Kurds than stopping the murder of Sunnis. Hell, if we get wacked AQ will take responsibility for Iran. Will we nuke Iran anyway? And do you know the problem of establishing the forensics to PROVE who hit us? Today’s secret factories and faculties producing uncatalogued products without manufacturing fingerprints will narrow the culprits down to what, 20, 15? Boy will it be funny is some remains point to China. And we’ll melt the citizens on Iran on a suspicion?
The world has changed since the cold war. The game being played is far different than the cold war. And the Russian’s who you seem to imply “fell” are still protecting Iran, Assad, Belarus, NK. It is a multiparty world with its attendant chaos. Corleone logic doesn’t apply.
So tell me again how the Cold War is a model out of this crap. Show us the resolve of Liberal Democracy against totalitarianism transferred to the GWOT. Once you convince me of that then I’ll buy into containment and rational leaders making rational decisions. Until then, it would be utter foolishness not to have the capability to flatten the flies without recourse to nuclear weapons. And by the way, Pakistan and India as far back as 2002 admitted their pursuit of MRRs because the wind would blow the fallout back onto their people. I would suggest that some of our adversaries are playing by far different rules than the Cold War. Presently they are building out the network and technology they need to strike and then dodge the bullets…Gorby didn’t have the luxury of playing false flag with the West……
Sorry for the typos….
IRREVERSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES
M
gosh, i think i disagree with almost every claim, M. Gorby used lots of false flags, the GRU and KGB trained lots of terrorists (which is why there was a drop in terrorism after the fall, yes our military superiority was manifest which is why we didn’t have to use it, and it isn’t really a question of rationality, because I do not believe we can convince the fanatics atop the Islamic Republic to surrender. I do think we can help the Iranian people–whose desire for and experience with democracy are extensive–collapse the regime. i keep asking, if we could bring down the Soviet Empire with (mostly) non-violent means, how can we fail to do the same with Iran, a regime run by incompetent, albeit fanatical, buffoons?
But I’ve been wrong before. But I’ve been right, too. I did forecast the collapse of the Soviet Empire, after all.
P.S. I didn’t mean we should start building neutron bombs. I was referring to my first suggestion in my first post, just to be clear. Re-reading my last comment, one might think I was talking about taking the NB off the table.
“M. Gorby used lots of false flags, the GRU and KGB trained lots of terrorists (which is why there was a drop in terrorism after the fall,”
Could you explain the terrorist acts against the US planned or conducted by the GRU and the KGB. Did the Soviets plan to used WMD? Name major terrorist acts committed against the US and Europe. Please do not include the shooting down of the Korean airliner.
“yes our military superiority was manifest which is why we didn’t have to use it, and it isn’t really a question of rationality, because I do not believe we can convince the fanatics atop the Islamic Republic to surrender.”
Well you put two thoughts together but I will try to separate them. First, given the unwillingness of Europe or the US to pre-empt Iran in any meaningful way, the technology I suggested was the military superiority you eluded to. The Iranians as RAND points out could be convinced in the face of overwhelming force and resolve. I don’t think Iran fears an invasion or even bombing the people they hold hostage, do you? And would you agree we are not going to pre-empt with nukes? Iran likely feared the US more in the early days of the Iraq invasion as the 2007 NIE suggests. I advocated in my original thought we give Iran something to consider. As far as reasonableness, most experts did in fact agree the Russians were rational. Are you suggesting Iran would have responded to the Cuban Missile Crisis in the way the Soviets did? Remember, Iran’s network is not related in the same way Cuba was to Russia. Iran just threatened Hamas over Assad. Intel claims there is some strategic agreement between Tehran and AQ and the Taliban. We know al-Islam, once a Sunni ally, has spent a decade almost in Iran along with AQ. In any case, I’m not sure many agree that the fanatics in Iran are rational and that the Russians were anything like the Iranians. The only response they got from Reagan was from the navy that had shooting orders. Today the reformists they promised Reagan sit under house arrest.
“I do think we can help the Iranian people–whose desire for and experience with democracy are extensive–collapse the regime. i keep asking, if we could bring down the Soviet Empire with (mostly) non-violent means, how can we fail to do the same with Iran, a regime run by incompetent, albeit fanatical, buffoons?”
Can I list the reasons (and they aren’t so stupid are they)?
1. They have oil and soon nuclear technology. China does well with central planning, no?
2. Our former adversaries supply them what they need as they work to manufacture goods for themselves. The rulers may be nuts, but the people are rather smart.
3. Because, as Lewis points out, Islam breaks the paradigm of State to State relationships, Iran can draw on a world wide religious call in a far more effective way than the Soviets could spread their revolution. Without this, I rather doubt their exploitation of anti-Zionism could be very effective. Can you imagine the NYT treating the Soviets in the manner they treat Iran now? DemocracyNow in 1960 championing the Iranian position? JFK couldn’t win either the Republican or Democratic nomination for President.
4. Technology gives Iran an advantage the Soviets didn’t have. The bipolar world made things difficult. Without the JFK narrative and attendant call to Liberalism’s defense, capitalists around the world make it rather easy for Iran to break the sanctions. Germany and Turkey a huge trading aprtner to the Soviets? I don’t see any threatened embargo on Iran shipping.
While you might disagree with my every point as you said above, I don’t understand your position. Given the clear picture of what the leadership in Iran is doing and the lack of any global will to stop them unlike the Western stance towards the Soviets, what evidence do you have that this present war can be solved by your suggestions? Certainly not without some show of force that radically changes the senarios Iranian general plan for. my suggestion changes that. Unlike the Soviet repsonse to Reagan’s neutron bomb, the Iranians have no counter to my technology. And while you’re thinking about it, Iran may start another incident with Israel via AQ, Hamas, Hizb’Allah or even the IRI directly. The noose is tightening and you propose what as Iranian snipers sit atop Syrian buildings? Shall we wait for things to get out of hand? You say there is a war (as opposed to a Cold War) and you suggest what?
My simple solution, though it hardly solves everything at least gives a serious fist to Iran’s leadership. I’m sure they were eager to see the latest Falcon test fail. My idea is simpler. In twenty four hours there would not be much left of Iranian facilities or their military bases if it came down to it. Or would you let things escalate until the US or Israel get hit and all hell breaks loose. I didn’t say attack Iran, but demonstrate they can’t stop us.
Consider this; ten years from now the world is irreversibly changed because fanatics have WMD capability, they are too dispersed to wack them all and in a few attacks our way of life is altered. We respond with nukes, vast invasions lead by General Ron Paul? Add that to our debt and what becomes of the good old US of A? Israel, Europe? The recent RAND warning said for the US to prepare for war with a nuclear and not nuclear armed Iran. It said they felt Iran would respond when faced with impending and overwhelming force with rational self-interest. That might be the only time their leadership acts rationally. As far as the Iranian people, while I know many seek more democracy and a dialogue with the West, far more Syrians, Libyans, Egyptians, Lebanese have died standing up to leadership at one time or another. The greatest Iranian sacrifice occurred when the people walked to certain death following the stupidity of the Mullah’s grasp of combat with Saddam. And that’s after they killed off their generals. I think Reza Khalili can shed some light here.
So in short, you are right about the larger map of the war we are in. Not many see it that way however. I do. I just don’t think a solution will come easily or quickly. In the meantime we are missing something we need. That is the military technology to declaw the beast and turn Fordo into Swiss Cheese. Instead, at this moment our idiot politicians have a trillion dollars in DOD cuts on the table. And the West doesn’t really give a crap abut confronting what this government says is the greatest sponsor of terrorism in the world.
Of course, I could be completely wrong. I am not the expert you are or have the experiance.
Your analysis is correct and perceptive. Unfortunately, it is hard to muster much hope for our success, given the general collapse of Western resolve. It is hard to see the West facing up to ANY of its problems, denialism having become our operative mode.
But the need is clear: we must mobilize all of the West’s resources in the struggle against Radical Islam, as Truman did in 1948 against communism. Support for friends, non-support of enemies, active propaganda, and direct force where needed.
Syria is indeed a critical battlefield. But we must not forget the most dangerous threat we face: Iran’s drive to become a nuclear power.
We have dropped the ball on Iran long enough. The recent reports of their uranium centrifuges being moved to “bombproof” subterranean sites suggest that the door is fast closing on our options. A Syrian revolution, no matter how successful, will not stop Iran’s centrifuges. Even an Iranian uprising might not do it.
A worldwide war must be waged simultaneously on many fronts. But right now, no front is more pressing than Iran.
War knows no political boundaries. Consider Holland and Belgium during the First and Second World Wars. In each case Germany used the terrain of both countries as a natural avenue of attack on France, although there was no “declaration of war” as to Holland and Belgium. Poland was invaded by German foces in 1939 on a pretense that it had been attacked by Poland. In consequence Germany and Russia (then allied) divided the territory of Poland between themselves and each occupied its segment, inflicting untold hardship and tragedy on the Polish people. One does not have to look very deeply into history to find such stories repeated endlessly. The Middle East (except for Israel), moreso than many other areas of the world has a commmon base: Islam. While there are divisions within Islam, as against Israel and the rest of the world, Islam is united. While previous administrations were in error trying to isolate Iraq, President Obama is ignorant of the underlying problems and we Americans will pay the price, which may be severe.
Well, unfortunately, instead of “unlimited war” with ” unconditional surrender” the goal after 9/11 we’ve had “limited war” and its corollary, lawfare, from which the best outcome that can be expected is stalemate (of course, the worse outcome is defeat). It does keep the lawyers employed in an era of declining militaries. I suspect this is more a problem of congressional will (a body of lawyers) rather than presidential shortcoming on the part of Bush. I don’t recall Bush or anyone in congress advocating a thrust toward Damascus to evict the ruling dentist after the liberation of Baghdad, much less an armored “blitzkrieg” attack at Teheran after taking down the Taliban in Afghanistan. Perhaps this was a strategic myopia of our kinder and gentler ruling elite schooled in the Ivys and the way of conditional affirmative action set asides. As LBJ used to say, “Come, let us reason together.” We’d love to build a TVA on the Mekong river, if only you (the Hanoi politburo) will agree put down your arms.
Michael,
The straight borders the British used to carve up the Middle-East were intentionally designed to off-set the concentration of indigenous centers of power. Three quarters of a century later, we recognize that those birds of a feather(e.g. the Kurds),or indigenous to regions need not be seperated to manage.
“The Clash of Civilizations” clearly points out that we are dealing with “The Third Jihad.”
As usual you successfully “wrapped your arms around” today’s roots of turmoil: The Third Jihad.
Any maps around dating bqack to the year 600AD
Regards.
["If we are going to win in the Middle East, we have to get the context right."]
We’ve been meddling in the Middle East longer than many of the newer generations have been on earth!
My question to you is: Precisely what does a “win” mean to you? Look at what decades of meddling in Iran since WWII has brought us! Look at the blood left in North Korea and what it remains today! Look at the blood left in Vietnam and its still a communist country after our meddling since the end of WWII. Look at Russia after “winning” the cold war! Look at Cuba, Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan; all with questionable chapters to be written.
Who is next and why?
can i look at Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, the former “captive nations” Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, too? And yes, we abandoned freedom after the fall of the wall, but Russia today is a much lesser threat than the USSR was. Don’t be so morose, it’s bad for digestion.
Michael….I try to look a the big picture over time and thus, could argue point after point with you but I do not as you’re old enough you will not be flexible in your ‘trained’ thinking. As for the old USSR! Like everyplace else, the last chapter is far from being written. It could also be argued that our ‘politcal arrogance’ over so many decades may well leave us ending up also as a collapsed entity….which we’re not that far from but for some miracle going forward. Our net, net gains from spending hundreds of billions of dollars meddling world wide in other governments has not done well for us. Global economic crisis around the USD and peace is hardly on the radar anywhere around the world.
As to Iran! Do you remember what our expectations were when we opened the doors wide at our colleges and universities for Iranian students in the 50′s? Then what happened nearly two decades later with our continued meddling? How many places and circumstances has the U.S. allowed itself to be dragged into because of messes created through British and French imperialism?
Lastly! Think of all the places we’ve meddled into around the world that turned to the old USSR and or the Russia of today for support. Now, even China is becoming a channel of support in several places where we’ve been active for so long. Our purposes and strategies for meddling around the world have never been well thoughtout and I’m not the least optimistic over what may be the consequences at some time in the nearing future. Everything that goes up tends to evenutally come down! Arrogance seemingly is found in history as it repeats itself over and over.
Mr. Ledeen, I certainly agree with your premise that this must be recognized as one big war, and that Syria is a far more important a front than Libya. But I remain unconvinced that “Supporting the rebels” is a sound strategic approach. If you are going to put your weight behind partisans you need to be damned sure of what they stand for and who is in de facto charge of them. If, as it appears to me, the rebels are primarily adherents of other branches of theocratic Islam, to what avail is our support?
You say, “…the people have already decided what they want and we should help them achieve it.” It is extremely naive to believe they have decided they want political democracy. In every case in this long Arabic war, they have wanted to rid themselves of a harsh Islamic tyrant and supplant him with some other, less oppressive, Islamic rule. Only an agnostic fringe of the rebels has any interest in democratic rule, though they use elections after they overcome their tyrant.
Thus we see Saudi Arabia, hardly a stronghold of democratic rule, rooting for the Syrian rebels. They want Assad out and Wahabists in. Do you really believe, as you write, that we should “embrace” such a rebel force? To my mind, blind support of revolution just because it was our heritage is a very dumb foreign relations policy. In Russia we had reason to believe that free democracy would prevail. It surely would be great to see Iran foiled, but the chances of Assad being replaced, in a free election, by a U.S. and Israel-friendly government, is nil. Just how big a hug should we offer? I think we should rather phrase it as, “What can we do, without committing to rebel support, to hasten the tyrant’s downfall and prepare ourselves for dealing with his successors?”
Thus, I remain baffled regarding what kind of “support”, beyond sanctions and short of delivery of arms, you would offer.
A serious conversation with the Saudis? The would rather see chaos in Syria than an secular opposition emerging. What do they gain by peace allowing the exploration of serious gas and oil finds in the Levant and the MED? They don’t really think the US will do anything about Iran and just watched the foolish move to kick Mubarak our before any alternative was in place. They do understand a strong horse, but how has US policy even helped the strongest horse Israel?
They would be impressed with my technological and basing suggestions. They are not very impressed with talk and without energy independence or the stability to pump the gas I mentioned, we don’t have much leverage. We even need the money for the weapons we sell them. This is in part not seeing the ME as Mr. Lewis does….
Golda Meir was once asked if she was worried about Israel being surrounded by all of the hostile Arab nations. Her reply was, “no, not until they learn to queue up.”
If this keeps being mishandled by the current administration, that’s precisely what they’re in the process of doing. To all of our peril.
Until such time as we remove the Muslim from the White House we will continue to lose this conflict. This is a Holy War in every respect. In many respects it is every bit as ideological as WWII.
The major difference is that the Muslim worldwide community is far larger and more well positioned than any 5th column of the combined German and Japanese fascist regimes.
This is a very real War. I congratulate this author in focusing on this problem. Whoever takes over the US Presidency in 2012 has his/her work cut. We need to get aboard on this issue asap following Obama’s exit (soon, we can only hope)
What happens when a superior culture meets an inferior culture?
America’s response to 9/11 was to put a seed of American Culture into Iraq, right in the faces of every Islamic culture. While most have thought it was all about America’s military response, the real attack was cultural. The Arab Spring is one of this strategy’s first results, with frozen and stagnate cultures beginning to move.
Most revolts fail, even when successful in throwing down one Tyrant, another Tyrant generally takes his place.
Cultures change at glacial speeds, and so it will be a long time before we will see victory over the moribund Islamic cultures. We need to recognize that Islamic cultures have just begun to move and are not advanced enough to sustain American style culture of Free Enterprise, Democracy, and most especially The Rule of Law.
Our foolish leadership has spent a Billion dollars in Libya, and the revolutionaries have already decided to base their constitution on Shariah Law, due to the incompatible nature of Shariah Law to advanced Culture, they will fail as miserably as the Iranians have.
We can’t afford to spend blood and treasure on every failing revolt. We should take a defensive position in Iraq, and ensure that the seed of American Culture we planted there thrives. Iraqis will flourish as Free Enterprise makes them wealthy, as the Purple fingers give them power, as the Rule of Law gives them Justice, the surrounding Cultures will see and lust after similar benefits for themselves.
Stick with the Strategy of Cultural Attack, and never subordinate your strategy to tactics, as the foolish Obama has.
Michael:
Have been reading your articles for years (i.e., “Faster Please”) & am very impressed with your work. Like you, I agree that destroying Islam is not an option. If Islam is to reform, it must come from within.
You undoubtedly know more about this than I do, but it seems to me that the seeds of reform are staring Westerners in the face, but they refuse to see it (the reader comments on this page being a great example).
A new generation of young people in Islamic lands is speaking, and a tremendous number of them want a total break from the past. If the U.S. Government would take and stand and provide moral and material support—for the reform movements in Iran (and other Arab countries) while leading the West in totally isolating the Mullahs and no longer accepting their legitimacy (just like Reagan delegitimized the Soviet Union, much to the horror of the sophisticated liberal elite), the stage would be set for the Fall of the Mullahs, and the development of a representative Persian Democracy. And that, as you know, would be a game changer, in the Middle East.
It wouldn’t be long before Syria, deprived of Iran support, would fall as well. And I’d hate to be Hizbollah if/when these things happen.
It’s striking to me, that in the last major round of elections in Iraq and Lebanon, a secular party won the largest share or plurality of the vote in a multi-party elections. Unfortunately, Islamic parties in both countries were able to form alliances with other parties, keeping the top vote getting party in both countries from assuming the top governmental position: President or Prime Minister.
Nevertheless, it’s instructive that a secular party in Iraq and Lebanon won a plurality of votes. It shows where people’s heads are, and where the future is.
I believe the future is that Islam is going to have to make accomodations like it never did before–because the majority of the people—especially the young people and merchant classes that want a better future—demand it. It probably won’t mean Jeffersonian style democracies will be established in these countries. But whatever is established—as we’re seeing in Iraq–although imperfect, is a Hell of a lot better than what they had before—some tyrant named Hussein and his 2 sons terrorizing the population. And as far as Islamic parties winning elections, maybe that’s something we can live with—as long as future free elections will take place, where they’ll have to face the populace and run on their records.
Mr. Ledeen, thank you for allowing me to post such long comments. I think you get the gist, though I’m no warmonger. If you could show us a practical way “containment” and “enabling the Iranian people” can work before the clock runs down, I would be very interested. My suggestion is based on the failure of such an imaginary plan that requires the resolve of others not evident in sufficient degree. Mass x velocity is my plan B.
Again, excuse my terrible typos….
Max
max, i have never suggested “containment,” i want revolution. how can it work? in the past half-century more than fifty dictatorships have fallen, mostly to non-violent democratic revolutionary movements. some have been reversed (most revolutions fail), some have survived, some have flourished.
on timing, nobody knows. but our experience in the Cold War was that the communist empire fell surprisingly quickly and amazingly non-violently.
Michael,
“were we fighting The USSR–a geopolitical superpower–or a vast global ideological movement “international communism”?”
Good point. And I would agree with you that it is yet unresolved. However, when it comes to jihadism, I would contend that it IS “a vast global ideological movement”. At the very least, that is what their leadership wants it to be… and they appear to be laying the foundation of it very methodically… and effectively.
‘Religious fanaticism’ differs significantly from a ‘communist ideology’. I know, there are certainly correlations that can be well argued. In the end, most followers of communism were not willing to die for the ideology. That’s why MAD worked with the Soviets… it worked with us as well. It won’t work with the jihadists. Not those most devout. And those most devout are in charge. And the moderates do not appear capable of resisting them. They lack the will. If Iran continues to grow in strength. Or if other Theocracies take hold in the ME…. these leaders will perpetrate great evil… I have no doubt.
Thank you for engaging us in these discussions. It makes this so much more interesting. And thank you for your years of good work and service.
thanks for your kind words. these conversations are important, i hope. on the jihadis, just to say it one more time, i believe that if we defeat them–if we bring down the regimes in Damascus and Tehran–it will be a serious blow to their ideology as well as their operational capacities. the states that sponsor terrorism are enormously important. enormously important. it’s not just a matter of doctrine, any more than it was with the Soviets.
Mr.Ledeen
It surprising that YOU make a decision for kurds and how they want to form their future.
You should know that Iranian kurds would love to live in a democratic Iran under equal conditions.
Your seperatist propaganda just gives fuel to the IR regime who claims the americans are after separation Iran if they leave.
you should know better!!!!
oh please. sure the Iranian Kurds want to be part of a Federalist Iran, and I said that. But the Syrian, Iraqi and Turkish Kurds don’t want to be part of Iran. and i could care less about the regime’s lies…