The Iranian Civil War
According to the Daily Beast, yesterday’s demonstrations against the Iranian regime were smaller than those on February 14th, but in fact they were both larger and more aggressive. The chants of “Death to the dictator” are now quite specific: “Death to Khamenei.” They can be heard at night in every Iranian city, and posters of the supreme leader are now burned in the streets during the fighting — for fighting it is.
Perhaps we will someday see photos from Google Earth, but, lacking that, we have to go on eyewitnesses, with all the subjective limitations of such evidence, some videos, and what we know about the regime’s behavior, which is a far more reliable guide. There were 617 arrests around the country — I believe that is the number provided to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad earlier today — and 270 people were seriously wounded, requiring medical attention (one of the uglier aspects of this regime is its use of ambulances as paddy wagons and mobile punishment centers; protesters are thrown in and then beaten), and there are two women in coma who will most likely not survive.
The regime armed its “security forces” with all manner of weaponry, from sawed-off mafia-style shotguns to electric batons, tear gas, pepper spray and chains. Armored personnel carriers were deployed, and helicopters were seen overhead at the peak of the fighting. So concerned were the tyrants that they brought in outside forces against the Iranian dissidents: Lebanese Hezbollah fighters (who deployed around Khamenei’s home) and, for the first time that I know of, young boys (15 years old and younger, down to 10-11) from mostly rural religious schools, who had been told they would be fighting infidels, and thus any level of violence was justified by divine command. In addition, there were earthly rewards: $50 dollars each. If you look at #iranelection on Twitter you’ll find links to accounts of these young hoodlums, as well as some personal accounts of their savagery.
They are in training for future jihads.
In short, the regime went all-in and could not intimidate the people. If anything, the fighting was tougher than in the past, and both sides are sure there is more to come.
Demonstrators took to the streets in the major cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz, Ahwaz, Rashd, Kermanshah and others. They were not only calling for Khamenei’s death but also for the immediate release of Mousavi and Karroubi, the two Green leaders who, along with their wives, were snatched from their homes last Thursday night. The four have been moved from one “secure location” to another virtually every day.
The next round is scheduled for Tuesday the 8th.
Meanwhile, the regime is doing its best to create the Persian equivalent of the Hermit Kingdom. They want to isolate the Iranian people from the outside world, and to that end they are striving to block or filter the social media, shut down international email, and jam foreign satellite broadcasts (or at least destroy the many millions of satellite dishes). They hope, in this way, to become the only source of information and doctrine, and the campaign runs parallel to the intrusion of religious instructors and censors at all levels of public education, the rewriting of the history books to eliminate references to the glories of pre-Muslim Persia, and the vicious purge of the country’s leading film makers and artists.
Obama doesn’t like Iranians. He has not shown any solidarity with the noble people of Iran. While Americans were trapped in Libya, he and his wife were throwing another bash for their elitist friends at the White House on tax payer money! I can barely afford a frickin Big Mac and they have Kobe beef! I’m just wondering, why in the hell doesn’t the opposition call for a national strike instead of protests? The regime almost collapsed in 2009 but Mousavi dropped the ball!
there are many strikes right now including Abadan refinery…
It could be that he is just indifferent to Iranians but using the mullahs as a proxy for whatever agenda he and his acolytes, Soros, Ayers et al have dreamed up.
If Egypt comes under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood then Iran with the mullahs will have sufficient sway over the region to blackmail Europe and the US.
“But one day he’s going to send a message of congratulations to the new leaders of a free Iran …..”
Will he? Or will he simply acknowledge that a regime change has occurred, and throw some salt in the wound by stressing the need for the new regime to respect human rights and not engage in retribution, etc, etc.
I wouldn’t put it past him.
Following Michael on my site http://hosreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/iranlas-protestas-continuan.html
Like much others blogs too.
Suerte Miguel.Y espero que lo que pasa en Libia,no esconda en las noticias lo que ocurre en Iran.
Quite an escalation. There now seems to be a path to a dearly earned demise of the regime. How did our hoper-changer-in-chief manage to miss his opportunity to contribute?
Mr. Ledeen, would you give your estimation of how much George W. Bush deserves credit for these tectonics?
Prof Guvinoff: Well, credit to Bush for starting the whole process of regime change in the region, albeit in the wrong place by the wrong means. But he raised expectations of American action and then wimped out. Bad chapter two. He only thought in military terms, when our best weapons are political. And Powell/Rice/Hadley never got it right and still don’t.
Dr. Ledeen you’re right on. My Iranian friends and I always talked about how Bush started the regime change process with the wrong country in Iraq. Whereas he should have started it in Iran the nucleus of Islamic terrorism, the head of the snake, the root of the problem and as you said he should have done it not through necessarily war but by means of smart policy, regime change by supporting the Iranian people and by giving them the tools necessary to fight the evil regime and succeed. But still after all that happened he understood the disease, and went in as a strong leader should and did something about it. He freckled only when he did not get any support from friends and foe and got compounding beatings from both left and right. As the result he lost his will but still never his vision. I admire him for his vision and for his integrity as a compassionate leader!
“What will he say, I wonder?”
Possible replies:
1) Somehow blame Bush.
2) Make the reply that Lord of the Fleas above suggests as likely.
3) Simple ignore the event until forced to comment by annoying reporters who do not believe Obama is a g-d and hence above the concerns of mere mortals.
4) Take credit for it.
5) Find a way of doing all of the above.
Regrettably I doubt the current government can be overthrown. Churchill foresaw that through use of modern technology, it would become harder to forcibly remove dictators: “But if we fail, then the whole world, … will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of PERVERTED SCIENCE.”
For the same reason I doubt if the under-armed, ill-disciplined, unorganized and untrained freedom fighters of Libya will be able to last against Ghaddafi’s well trained, armed and organized army and air force, any more than the freedom fighters of Hama, Syria lasted against Assad’s goons.
President Obama’s political beliefs were shaped by the like of William Ayers and Saul Alinsky. This school maintains that the masses are erratic and irrational and that there are a precious few who have been endowed with sufficient intellectual prowess to assume the captaincy of the ship. These few will be further molded into shape by elite institutions to prepare them for assuming power. To reach the pinnacle of power any method is fair game. The end justifies the means. Hence it is perfectly natural and logical for a William Ayers not to have any remorse for his terroristic actions. As there was no remorse by Trotsky for unleashing the Red Army on innocent people or by Hitler for murdering millions. The same is true today. If there needs to be cheating to get elected to high offices in the US (multiple votings, dead people voting, throwing ballots in to the river, etc.) that is perfectly logical, reasonable and ethical under this school of thought. The ultitmate aim is to create a totalitarian state. Please note that I said totalitarian not authoritarian. In fact, those who believe in totalitarianism vehemently oppose authoritarianism. Any honest and unbiased observer must have noticed the march towards totalitarianism in the US. To that end a totalitarian ideologue will cheer the deposition of authoritarians such as Ben Ali or Mubarrak in the hope that a totalitarian system, such as the jolly jokers of the Muslim Brotherhood (thank you Sgt. Schultz) will replace them. So, vis-a-vis Iran, Obama and co. will make statemnts, levy meaningless sanctions, go to that shameful body called the United Nations, but will not take any tangible steps to support a secular democratic opposition because the current regime in Iran is totalitarian. Obama, Khamenei-Ahmadinejad and Chavez may speak different languages and be continents apart but, believe me, they are kindred spirits. The people of Iran cannot and should not wait for help from this administration. IT WILL NOT COME. They have to go balls to the wall and overwhelm the evil bastards with sheer numbers. Easier said than done. But it can and has been done.
great. I heart thee
(ps. Rasht not Rashd)
with any luck, and more intelligent voters we will have a new president in office here by the time the iranians put paid to their current lords and masters, and we will be doing some house cleaning of our own in washington d.c., though i have strong suspicion that obama will not go willingly or gracefully when he loses the election in 2012.
Of all the events occuring in the world and particularly the middle east, this would be the most fantastical. Perhaps a game changer the likes of which would have dramatic effect on the entire region.
I am no expert, but certainly the opposition is made up of many educated people who I would suggest are not looking to replace the current theologoical tyrants with a new brand of tyrant holy or otherwise.
Where is Obama? He is home being pragamatic. The stance of a true amateur. He will await the outcome and make an attempt to swoop in and grab the prize if and when it is reality. What a sad character we have as our president.
What a noble and courageous effort by the Iranian people.
Anyone else notice President Kim Il Obama’s peculiar bent for supporting radical Islamic groups during the upheavals taking place throughout the Middle East but in the one instance where a true democratic uprising is taking place in Iran against a totalitarian radical Islamic regime he is deafeningly silent? Disturbing to say the least and very dangerous to our country in the long run.
What is interesting about the rebels in either Iran or Libya right now is that they have to be totally committed to success and the overthrow of their respective regimes.
Think about it. They have to be “all in” or else they will be executed by the regime. There is no middle ground here. If you are a vocal apponent to the mullahs in Iran, do you think they will just put you in jail? Nope, you’re dead. If you lose against Gaddafi, how “charitable” a winner do you think he is going to be? Give me a break, if Gaddafi somehow manages to hang on to power, he’s going to find new and creative ways to execute you. So the rebels in both of these countries know that they HAVE to win because failure is NOT an option.
We should use this to our advantage. Support the rebels with whatever they need: weapons, money, food or medical supplies, anything. We will be using the old Soviet formula of encouraging local populations to rebel against their own governments. You don’t even have to make it an ideological struggle. The United States isn’t well liked in either of those countries, so lets just say this is an “invenstment” (Obama likes that term now) in hitting regimes that don’t like us. Sort of like the way France supported us against Great Britain during the Revolutionary War. France distrusted American democracy, but they hated the British more and couldn’t pass up an opportunity to get at them by using us. So both the colonists and the French got something out of the deal.
It is hard to imagine something WORSE taking over in either Libya or Iran when you look at who is running those countries right now. We don’t have much to lose and a lot to gain by supporting rebels with material support right now. They do NOT need our troops, they need the tools of war to succeed. Why not let somebody else do the fighting for us for once and see what happens?
Whither Iran’s Jews and the State of Israel, vis a vis a successful revolution?
Michael, since our President won’t lift a finger, or even speak out, in support of the heroic Iranian people, is there anything we ordinary citizens can do to help their cause and speed the downfall of this horrific government, short of voting out our incompetent “leader” of the free world?
yes indeed. write your elected representatives and urge them to a) call for the US to actively support the IRanian opposition (the Greens) and to publicly demand the release of all political prisoners (including Mousavi & Karroubi) and equal rights for Iranian women.
hi Mr. Ledeen! if I may please, it is Rasht and not Rashd. the Iranian government is on borrowed time. period.
m
I’ll say! they can’t even spell the names of their cities…
Hi! I just got off of the phone with my sister. the people have changed their tactics. My sister says that everyone just walk in the side walks!!
We, through our elected leadership, are abdicating our inherent responsibility to defend Liberty and support movements intent on acquiring the same.
It is not, however, ironic that the Western/American Left and its ideological leaders fail to truly champion human rights. Sure, it is through the meme of projected & percieved compassion, domestic civil rights and global human rights that their image relies upon, and the basis of the girth with which it asserts itself. But the perception is just that: Perception, belying a myth.
Consider that President Obama could, even if for purely selfish egotistical reasons, become a true champion of real human rights on a global scale if he would embrace the Iranian people, take ownership of their defense and support in the name of Liberty and human rights, and help accelerate the tipping point for the messianic mullah regime. The Iranian people and other movements would embrace him personally and America generally as true courageous defenders of Liberty. The American public would swell with accompanying pride and renewal of a sense of identity and purpose beyond paychecks. A mortal enemy, wrested from the hands of tyrants and into the hands of her people, would become an embracing ally.
Talk about Hope. Talk about Change. Talk about Transformation.
But no. Not even for vanity can this president be inspired to stand. Alas, the problem – the enemy – is not the Iranian regime of terror. It is the Republican party and, more specifically, Conservative understanding of the Constitution and the Government it outlines, mandates and restricts.
It’s enough to make you want to vomit. It’s enough to cause very real physical discomfort. And in between those moments, there is simply shame.
But there is no time to be down, no time for self pity or exhaustion. There is work to be done. Awareness to be raised. And, most importantly, shame to be transfered – from you and I to where it belongs: With our silent leadership.
Please, do as Michael suggested and CONTACT your elected representatives. Implore them to stand for the Iranian people, for the Liberty they seek, for the end of a tyranical, messianic terrorist regime – and that they implore others, specifically the President of the United States, to do the same.
Thank you, Michael, for doing what you do and for reminding me when I needed it most that there is not time for pity or weariness.
We may help Freedom in Iran by helping Freedom in here.
We must get rid of the nomenklatura of internationalist subversives, marxists, pro-islamists that controls our media and our universities.
We must vote out this administration that weakens America through class-warfare, debt, and impotent foreign policies.
Kick them out in 2012.
Mr. Ledeen: Bush deserves all the credit for these tectonics. It is long overdue that the Middle Eastern people rise up and make a better life for themselves. Iraqi democracy was, and is, a major catalyst in events today.
I don’t think Bush wimped out, he caved in because he got no support. When they didn’t find masses of WMDs in Iraq (which I think were moved to Syria before hostilities began) everybody turned on him, including the Republican Congress. (Who were getting way too comfortable feeding at the public trough) The libtards via the MSM attacked him unmercifully for years. I do fault him for not defending himself more vigorously, but he didn’t get much help from his side and I would think it very devastating it is to suffer such an attack on a daily basis.
I think Bush was correct in the war on terror. With regard to Iran though, we should have been publically supporting the opposition to the Iranian regime since 9-11. We should have also been privately giving that opposition the means to fight as well, but this country didn’t have the stomach for it, especially in lieu of the brainwashing it got by the libtard MSM.
The problem though is you might get what you wish for. The people of the Middle East are victims of a culture that lacks ethics. Simply put their motto is to take what you can, when you can and screw others before they screw you. When people have this mindset it is hard to create a successful western style capitalistic democracy. Until the Middle Eastern people change their culture, their countries will continue to be ruled by one Kleptocracy after another. All you can hope for is that they are pro-American and not crazy.
Michael,
Thanks for your support of the Iranian people. I am hopeful that you will be proven correct. I am also glad that many of the posts to your blog recognize that the revolt in Iran is not like the revolts taking place elsewhere in the Middle East in that this revolt is against the Islamic regime, even though Mousavi and Karroubi are still supporters of an Islamic theocracy.
The regimeis truly, truly evil and they are oppressing a highly intelligent and sensitive people.
Obama is a disgrace and has been for some time. If the American president cannot articulate the importance of human rights and individual liberty, who can? I am at a loss to account for his impotence, but it is puzzling that he can articulate support for the people in Egypt toppling a secular autocrat but is incapable of supporting a secular uprising the against an Islamic theocracy.
Any theories about that?
Thank you for your support of the Iranian people. They need to know that even if our leader is blind and deaf to their suffering, many Americans are not.
theories? Obama seems to prefer enemies to friends…
Yes, Michael. However, it is more basic than that. He is not ‘your’ President, he is not your friend. He is the Marx-influenced, Muhammad-influenced President of the World in his mind. For him, the UN works perfectly, Israel’s place is to be lashed and America is to be severely corrected until it behaves. There is no basic problem with China and Russia, esp. Russia (I don’t think he likes the Chinese, which relates to the Muslim-Indonesian experience). Putin and Hugo are in his circle, you are a threat to world peace….Shabbat Shalom.
The enemies of America ARE his friends.
When this is clear, all is clear.
Would it be wrong to hope some folks looking to win the presidency in 2012 would speak out more in opposition to the regime? If our ‘leader’ isn’t leading can’t a true leader start leading without waiting for an election? May they are and I’ve just missed it?
Quite right Mr. Ledeen. It will be, “The President of the United what, is calling?
Needed the suggestion to write my Reps.
It’s hard to say where all this will end, but after generations of repression and stultification, it’s amazing for these demonstrations to catch fire now.
Each is significant, but Iran probably most of all, due to the menace the unhinged regime offers the entire world.
Increasingly it is evident that the President is a disaster. He bows and scrapes to foreign leaders, while at home he describes his political opponents as specious and dishonest. His suggestion that if his opponents bring a knife the answer is to bring a gun. This is is typical of a man who has no tolerance of any viewpoint other than his own. Domestic opponents he demeans; foreign opponents he praises.
Of all the countries in the Mid-East Iran is the country to watch in the short term. If revolt grows in Iran to the point where Iran’s rulers cannot contain it, they will instigate a war with Israel to shift the people’s focus. At that point all bets are off.