There are some eery similarities between Egypt 2011 and Iran 1979, and some of them are unfortunately about American leadership. There are some big differences, too, but for the moment let’s just look at some parallels and try to draw some necessarily tentative conclusions. After all, everything is up for grabs right now and things will probably change a lot in the next few hours and days.
First of all is prostate cancer. The shah was dying of it and Mubarak is afflicted with it. We know Mubarak’s got it. We didn’t know the shah had it. One of the effects of the disease and its treatment seems to be that the person has difficulty making tough decisions, and it inevitably forces him to think about his legacy. The shah didn’t want to go down as a bloody dictator, and he rejected all appeals from his generals to open fire on the demonstrators. This encouraged the opposition and discouraged the military commanders.
Second is the role of Washington. Carter did not know what to do, and he was operating on the basis of very bad intelligence. Above all, he (thanks to his CIA) had very little good information about Khomeini. He and advisers like Secretary of State Cyrus Vance and Iran desk officer Henry Precht and NSC staffer Gary Sick all permitted themselves to believe that we could continue to have very good relations with Iran even if the shah were overthrown. They failed to see the nature and extent of the Khomeini movement, saw it as a “progressive revolution,” and UN Ambassador Andrew Young famously called the ayatollah a holy man, and even “some kind of saint.”
I don’t know the quality of our intelligence on the Egyptian opposition, but if former Ambassador Martin Indyk is correct (and all I’ve got to go on is a Tweet saying he said it on BBC Arabic), the White House and State Department may be signaling approval of Mohammed al-Baradei. According to Al Jazeera — a very unreliable source to put it mildly — Obama has told leaders in the Gulf that the United States favors a “peaceful transition” to greater democracy.
Well, so do I. But Baradei is one of the last men I would choose for that role. He doesn’t like America and he’s in cahoots with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. He would be likely to try to replay the ghastly catastrophe of 1979. Bad for freedom, bad for the Egyptian people, bad for America. Does our intelligence community not know this? And if they do, why is Obama tilting towards this outcome? If he is, that is…
In 1979 we came down hard on the shah to show restraint towards the demonstrators, just as we are today with Mubarak. I understand that no American government, let alone an Obama government, can openly say to Mubarak: “What are you waiting for? Put it down!” I don’t know what we’re saying privately. Gates has apparently spoken to his counterparts in Cairo and Jerusalem. What did they say? I don’t know, obviously, but that conversation would go a long way to clarify the real facts. I’ll bet you that there was some sort of deadline to Mubarak: if you can’t establish control within x days, we will have to work with the opposition. That would be normal and sensible.
The greatest American sin in 1979 was to confuse the shah. He didn’t know what we wanted. From the State Department he heard calls for sweet reasonableness, entreaties not to use live ammunition against the mobs, and so forth. From Brzezinski he heard pleas to be strong. Maybe even to crack down violently. The shah didn’t know who to believe. Then it got worse. We sent a General Huyser to Tehran with two sets of instructions: a) to support a military coup and b) to prevent a military coup. So the shah and the generals stood by and watched, and Khomeini’s multitudes, who knew exactly what they wanted, fought all-out and won.
Michael: while no one wants a dictatorship, the alternative in this scenario is even worse, as you know: the dictatorship of islam. And that dictatorship will have only one ultimate goal: the destruction of anything that is not islamic. It will begin with Israel and include all who support her.
The coming showdown between a spineless West (as it was with the nazis) and militant islam is inevitable. The question is will the West ever get its spine up to confront islam as it did the nazis?
Do you not think it is time, at least, to stop all foreign aid, except to Israel, as we see nothing in good will for what we give as a nation?
You have said it all.
Unfortunately for us, the Obama regime and its supporters have been instigating these phony “popular revolts” in the Middle East from the get-go:
Obama supports Islamist takeover of Egypt
Egypt: Populist Revolt or Muslim Brotherhood?
I think they’re switching support to Suleiman instead. What is your opinion on him?
I agree Obama, his administration, and Martin Indyk are out to lunch. A great starting point is to simply do the exact opposite of whatever Martin Indyk suggests.
My view is that these wars and occurrences are merely “weapons deals”; that intelligence agencies, like the former KGB, are the marketing department for weapons manufacturers like the former “Commuless Moscow Weapons Company” (AKA USSR); promise some ideology; deliver a “nice long war and sell lots of weapons”.
Therefore: what appears to be a popular uprising is in fact the result of hard work by some intelligence agency (AKA: marketing dept for the weapons manufacturers eg: O.B.L)
I maintain that belief in that proposition is completely irrelevant, what is important is that “it is a weapons deal” explains a “situation” and offers solutions; (Ike said it)
In the case of Egypt, we appear headed for an Iranian style dictatorship that parades as religious but clearly is not religious.
We need to communicate to the Egyptian “street” what awaits is worse and allow for a peaceful transition with the dictator you have; of course we see in Gaza: they vote for the terrorist…Their brainwashing is worse than Americans…who still believe the con man in chief: O
The army should put down the uprising and restore order by agreeing for Mubarak to leave to be replaced by the army chiefs for a transition period…seems the only way out…
You mention that the greatest American sin in 1979 was confusing the Shah. True. However I contend that there are two historical mistakes that supersede this sin in gravity. The first, in my estimation, was that the Shah was not honest with himself about himself. Before embarking on a career in dictatorship he needed to search his soul to see if he had the stomach for it. It is easy to be a dictator when there are no crises. The test of an efficient dictator is the unabashed use of his ruthlessness and amorality when his power is meaningfully contested ready to go down with the ship. There are many historical examples from which he could have learned. He was devoid of such ruthlessness and amorality therefore rendering him an incompetent dictator. Had he known this about himself then he may have chosen another form of governing the country. The second mistake was for him to wait and see what the Americans want. He clearly knew that Khomeini was the embodiment if evil and by pursuing the principle of the Greater Good for the Iranian people he should have opened fire, ferociously, on demonstrators when the revolution was in its nascent stage. Do I sound callous? Maybe. But he would have been in good company with my favorite haberdasher, Harry S. Truman, when he had to also decide on the basis of the Greater Good principle to pulverize Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Hosni Mubarrak is at the same moment of truth. Alea iacta est. He cannot wait to see what other powers, including the USA, want. He has to act on the principles of an efficient dictator ruthlessly, accepting all consequences, including his own death. If successful, there will be time for reforms. If not, at least history will judge him going down with honor in the face of vermin such as the Islamic Brotherhood.
I wonder if the Shah was relying on US to make the tough decisions. We didn’t, and that left him adrift. I hope Mubarak’s got more spine than that. Or less, depending on which outcome you favor.
Horseradish,
It’s really amazing to me that even politically informed people such as those commenting on these blogs still are calling the Shah a “dictator”. We really have to be careful with the descriptive words we use. Some called him a “benevolent dictator”. What an oxi-moron! If the Shah was a “dictator”, what was Stalin, or Castro, or Hitler?
Hitler and Stalin were totalitarians from extreme ends of the political spectrum. There is a qualitative difference between authoritarianism and totalitarianism. The Shah was a dictator in the sense that there was no political freedom to act as an opposition. However in other aspects of life, such as economic matters, there was complete freedom. It cannot be denied that policies were made and mandated by the Shah and the cabinet was only there to rubber stampt them. The bicameral legislative bodies were there for delgates to bloviate (stolen fron Bill O’Reilly). Please take notice that I am NOT making a value judgement. In fact, I believe that the father and the son served Iran very well. Anyone who denies that is either uninformed or a slave to left wing slogans and propaganda. Even I, contrary to my character, feverishly and ultimately uselessly particpated in pro monarchy demonstrations during the ’79 revolution.
‘In fact, it’s the most common one. I’m sure Obama hates being in this position, as any of us would. But he’s got to make decisions.’
Mike – do you expect decisions from pResident ‘i vote present’?
Middle East: The dog that didn’t bark
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/01/30/middle-east-the-dog-that-didnt-bark/
when the SHTF Barky is nowhere to be found.
Decision Making is not Obama’s strongest suit. He tends to vote ‘present’ whenever it is needed to be decisive.
Yes, Dr. Ledeen, my head is spinning like the girl in the Exorcist from the indecision and inexperience of the Obama government. People used to laugh at critics who stated an Obama administration would be like Carter II, a foreign policy disaster, but this is exactly what we now have: middle eastern extremists unafraid to foment unrest because they know the United States has no backbone at the moment. And poor Mr. Mubarak, like the Shah of Iran, gets the shaft for 30 years of loyalty.
We’ll know Obama’s transition into Carter is complete if he hides under his desk when hostages are taken.
Any chance of a similar uprising in Syria?
in fact there have been demonstrations in Aleppo and there is a call for a larger one at the end of the week…
Nah! They’re in bed with Iran which is doing a lot of the inciting.
If Egypt falls to the Muslim Brotherhood then it’s almost certain that Jordan will follow suit and Syria with Turkey and Iran in alliance with the MB in Egypt and their Hamas crowd in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon will encircle the region.
Iran is not going to allow “freedom fighters” to go on the rampage in Damascus.
Your mention of the “least bad choice” is apt, Michael. A brazen military dictatorship would be bad, but rule by the Muslim Brotherhood (whether directly or through their tool el-Baradei) would be a lot worse.
All this hubub and wild speculation, and nobody knows who we should “support” or even if the rioters are united in anything beyond “Kick the bastard out”. In all likelihood most of them are simply expressing “hope” for a “change”. If Mubarak abdicates anarchy will follow. VDH’s conclusion is the only one: Step back until something comes into focus. In the meantime, can the babble.
Anyway, how do you” lend support” to rioters in a foreign nation?
You tell Mubarak, QUIETLY, that we’re behind him 100%, that’s how.
Also to an earlier poster: Suleiman has in fact been a reliable (as reliable as Israel could hope for) intermediary. He’s generally kept to his promises with Israel and has acted in a professional way. He’s definitely anti-Hamas, and he’s a “known quantity.”
Certainly it’s true that if he were to become dictator, he might change — o one is invulnerable to change, especially when they inherit a huge amount of power. But I’d FAR rather see Suleiman in than El Baradei. Baradei is a puff piece who’s throat will be slit (metaphorically) the second the MB installs him into office. He will never have real power and eventually an openly MB agent will take over and the place will start looking and changing just like Gaza did, Burqas, no western clothes, and on and on.
by the way, the MB has sworn for a very long time that the second they ever come into power, they will rip up the Israeli peace accord. Israel is *already* preparing by diverting forces from the Nroth to the South which has been almost unguarded for 3 deaceds — in part, probably allowing them to focus on their economy and perform such wonders. But like Caroline Glick said, whether it’s today, 5 years from now or 10, the MB will get into power and the peac accord will be scrapped. Israel must start preparing now.
Economically, it’s not a great thing, but psychologically, it definitely gives Israel a sense of the old days where they felt a brotherhood of pounded steel.
Most people are unaware that there are US troops in the Sinai — the analogy to U Thant’s troops a long time ago. If the US were to actually cave to a “request” or “order” by a new Egyptian ruler to depart, Israel would have her Causus Belli the moment Egypt started rolling tanks into the Sinai, and at that moment could attack and probably take back the Sinai (the world will cream no matter what Israel does in answer to anyone pointing this out).
It’s quite entertaining to listen to conservatives who haven’t yet figured out that america can’t determine the outcome of events like these.
You can’t meddle in stuff like this. Well, ok, you CAN meddle, or at least you can try, but it won’t work and it never has. Name one political revolution that the “west” was successfully able to resolve for the better by its involvement. We’ve certainly been able to precipitate the collapse of regimes, but we’ve never been able to ensure their replacement with something better.
Like it or not, the US has no moral clout in the arab world. The absolute best the state department and president can do is talk about restraint, threaten sanctions if anyone goes troppo and urge peaceful processes and outcomes. That’s it. If everything really goes to hell (which it hasn’t, yet) then maybe some sort of military intervention will be called for just to save lives – but we’re a long way from that.
There’s nothing else that anyone in a position of power in washington can say (or do, for that matter) that can possibly improve the chances of a positive outcome. Like I said – they can TRY to interfere, but it will go wrong. Even backing a candidate at this stage would be horribly stupid. Take a deep breath and accept it – the US just isn’t relevant to this process.
Talk about “leadership” all you like. But the prez can only lead by example … he can’t actually make anyone follow. Egypt is going to have to figure this out by itself. Anything else will be seen as illegitimate, which is precisely the problem with the existing regime. Once a group or leader attains some sort of legitimacy, then the world can offer help.
You’re just going to have to trust the egyptian people. Talk all you like (and WOW, aren’t people talking!), but nothing us non-egyptians say is worth anything. We’re completely irrelevant to the process. We might not like the outcome. But, odds are, if we don’t like it then neither will the egyptians.
” Name one political revolution that the “west” was successfully able to resolve for the better by its involvement. ”
Germany and the fall of The Berlin Wall. Freedom from Soviet tyranny by a dozen formerly occupied countries.
I could go on.
*snort*
I don’t think you read the question properly.
Firstly, you seem to be counting WWII as a “revolution”. Nope, sorry. And the cold war wasn’t a revolution either. The END of the cold war involved with some revolutions, absolutely, but the two you mentioned required (and had) no US involvement.
Believe what you like about the role of reagan and starwars in sending the soviet union broke (like most reagan myths it’s popular, but basically fails on the economics), the fall of the berlin wall was entirely an internal political matter and the collapse of the soviet union was the result of an internal coup. If you can point to some evidence that the US had something to do with precipitating either, you’ll be famous.
Try again. An actual revolution that the US had a hand in that didn’t go pear-shaped.
Twenty years and you still haven’t accepted the collapse of your beloved XSSR, have you?
Um … did you even read the posts above, or are you some sort of perl script that generates random comments?
I asked a simple question. I’m yet to see an answer – one revolution that the US (or any of “the west”) interfered in (short of military intervention – malaya doesn’t count) and positively affected the outcome.
See, a lot of posters here seem to be implying that there’s something the US can do to “guide” the process in egypt. There isn’t. And the US can only stuff it up by trying. Like it or not, what the prez and sec state are doing right now is exactly what they should be doing.
Matthew: Poland, Czechoslovakia, Chile, Bulgaria, Argentina, Soviet Union…for starters. It usually takes a long time, and requires patience and cooperation with democratic revolutionaries, and sometimes requires trust and friendship with the leaders who are the targets of the revolution. In Chile we told Pinochet that he had to stand down, for example. In Argentina we told the generals to stand down. In the Soviet bloc we supported dissidents, trade unions, etc. Long subject. Not simple, so your simple question doesn’t have a simple answer…
I am a Russian from the former USSR, and I’ve lived through two revolutions (1991 and 1993), and what’s happening in Egypt is clearly nothing to be excited about. As I said on my blog – Revolution as good as its people. And Egyptian people ain’t cool.
but put attention that 85 millions of egiptians won’t Mubark. the real peace is between peoples, and the urgent work is to support building a real secular democracy in Egypt, there are personlities in opposition to represent this.
This is all America’s fault. If Bush had not wiped out Saddam,then Iran would not be the instigator of these protests. The world would be peaceful,BUT NO you damn Yanks had to go and do an air show over Iraq and stuff things up once again. WHY can’t America mind it’s own business???? You stuffed it,now fix it. Damn Yanks.
It is 1979 again, it is all unravelling and Israel will be in the cross-hairs, sooner or later. You also could even be more critical of Obama in this article, he has been too preoccupied with the Joooos building homes after all to bother with the Islamist threat anywhere.
Egypt is armed to the teeth with US weaponry and we have ceded the buffer zone of the Sinai to Egypt. Translation – the Muslim Brotherhood will soon be armed to the teeth with US weaponry and we have ceded the buffer zone of the Sinai to the Muslim Brotherhood. This is where the disaster of Israeli and US Leftism (under Jimmy Carter) has led us.
Now who is going to be the first PM writer to acknowledge the fact that Islamists are on the brink of seizing power in Egypt AND they threaten Israel with US SUPPLIED FIREPOWER and Israel is tactically weaker than ’73 and Egypt stronger since US SPONSORED PEACE TREATY means she has ceded the Sinai back to Egypt ie Muslim fanatics. In other words, with a so-called ally like the US, who needs enemies? America will ally us to death, you are sowing the seeds for another Holocaust with your “alliance” and the same can be said for the Israeli Left for another Holocaust and the less said about Amercian Jews the better, and the latter have less excuse.
Well I’m waiting for a PM writer to acknowledge how the US has put Israel’s future survival at stake ..Probably wait till hell freezes over. Go ahead prove me wrong PM. Yes and the Israeli Left should be roasted over the fire too, and not just them.
I see nothing but dark days ahead, the worst of times..
Ya never should’a bombed the U.S.S. Liberty Larry…payback’s a bitch.
hey Talnik that’s pretty rich and hypocritical for a number of reasons that would be way over your head. Will you be dancing in the streets when rockets from Hamas, Egypt, Hezbollah are landing in TA, Talnik? Probably. The jihadists still hate you Talnik even though you have a common enemy – the Zionists plotting to take over the world. They are not going to stop hating you (an infidel kaffir is still an infidel kaffir), no matter how you grovel before them and cheer them on in any war against the Jews, no matter if you tell them you have so much in common – a shared hatred of Israel. Europe is finding that out, but they still don’t get it, and they never will I reckon. Just like the Obamabots in the US, lost and learn-proof.
What a vile, disgraceful comment, Talnik.
That’s uncalled for Talnik.
Don’t forget the thousands of PLO troops the US has been training under the Abbas regime.
Egypt under Mubarak has been a loyal American ally, a bulwark against Islamic extremism and Iranian expansionism, and has kept the peace with Israel for 30 years. President Barack Obama’s mealy mouthed “support” for Mubarak while demanding his overthrow is a disgrace and a betrayal of the worst kind. Obama’s incompetent and stupid meddling will probably insure a takeover by Moslem fundamentalists in Egypt just as happened when President Jimmy Carter diplomatically and politically knifed the Shah of Iran in the back and let the Ayatollah Khomeni and his gang of murderers take over Iran.
Communism was not defeated by ‘inter-cultural discussion’, or by bribery or arms. It was defeated by the iron curtain.
When the western world stops treating islamic countries as ‘special’ friends, and starts treating them as they wish to be treated i.e. as supreme beings who need neither our aid, compassion of land, then we will achieve a basis for discussion.
IRON CURTAIN.
Cut off the western world. Offer all muslims living on this side of the curtain the choice: accept the tenets of secular nations or go join the Umma nation.
NOT RACE NOR RELIGION.
Defectors from the Umma are welcome, Umma loyalists must leave, regardless of ethic genealogy, gender and theist preferences.
“The shah didn’t want to go down as a bloody dictator, and he rejected all appeals from his generals to open fire on the demonstrators. This encouraged the opposition and discouraged the military commanders.”
Which is why the Shah died in exile. Unfortunately, the dictators who have no hesitation in killing their own people usually stay in power. Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Castro, Pol Pot, Kim Jung Il, all stayed in power longer than they should have simply because they never hesitated when it came to killing their own people. Even now, after the political protests in 2009, the mullahs didn’t hesitate firing on their own people in Iran and, as a result, they held on to power, at least for the time being. Does it always work? No, eventually people win the rebellion, although in places like China, Cuba, and North Korea the dictators still call the shots, literally.
Mubarak is finished because he is not the classical dictator. He isn’t willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power. So before we start citing this guy’s political obituary, we had better have somebody waiting in the wings to take over and maintain some order in Egypt. If not, and if we’re simply doing this to “support the people,” then the Muslim Brotherhood will simply take over and we will have another Iran on our hands. Only this one will be right on Israel’s border.
I don’t know that that’s entirely true Liberty Ship — although in general I heartily agree with your pronouncements.
Mubarak has a serious problem: that is that he is UNSURE as to whether the Army would Carry out his orders(!) to fire on the people. IF he was sure, I bet he’s issue that order in a heartbeat. I don’t view him as a softy. You can’t be in that part of the word – let’s remember, he was sitting piratically next to Sadat when the MB shot Sadat. I don’t think he suffers from any illusions.
One other point on the Army. Yes it’s true they have been armed quite well by the Americans. However, there is also a line of thinking that just like prior to 1967, they have become (in the past 3 decades) an army of “parade” and not a lean, mean army of crack drills and competitive war-games (as they corrected themselves after 1967 and up to 1973 — a totally different army by them — although they were also very well equipped by the Soviets, who as they saw Egypt loosing, had the gall to fly attack planes THEMSELVES against Israel! (it may have been one Soviet and one Egyptian in each plane, I’m not entirely sure on that last point). But that’s when the Americans got very worried as Israel was SHOOTING THOSE SOVIETS DOWN! And the Americans (rightly) feared that that might very quickly escalate..
The One’s main problem in the MidEast, as with everything else, is what I will hereafter define as “Dogma-Induced Tunnel Vision” (DITV) syndrome. Simply put, he clings to his dogmas no matter what the real world does in defiance of same.
In the MidEast, this takes the form of seeing everything on this basis; “Our only problem with the Arab world is Israel”. Seen in this light, he believes that if he can just play nice with Arab states while making it clear that Israel annoys him as much as it does those states, Everyone Will Love Us.
Which means that since Mubarak has (in The One’s opinion, unwisely) abided by the peace treaty with Israel, he’s perfectly willing to let him go down. And will not look too closely at the motivations of his replacement(s).
A Muslim Brotherhood-backed Egyptian regime’ that immediately returns to Nasser’s confrontational mode with Israel would be just fine with him. To him, that would be “proper” in light of his view of Israel as a burr under America’s saddle preventing us from sitting comfortably on the multicultural horse. The fact that the reason for such hostility would have less to do with Israel in particular than with the fundamentalist Islamic determination to rid the world of “infidels” in general is completely lost on him.
Unfortunately, our SecState (The Hill) shares his tunnel vision on this subject, so we cannot expect a sudden outbreak of common sense from that quarter, either.
About the best we can hope for, I suspect, is that the Egyptian armed forces are now equipped with enough U.S. hardware (M1 tanks, F-16 fighters, etc.) that a trade embargo will severely cramp their style the next time they go barrel-assing across the Suez Canal enroute to Tel Aviv.
Of course, The One is more likely to immediately embargo anything and everything going to Israel. Because his dogma tells him that’s the thing to do.
clear ether
eon
Of course. All of the (US backed) despots in the Middle East’s days are numbered. (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen etc…) They will all be toppled, it’s only a matter of time. The average Muslims in the street HATE their rulers for a bunch of reasons (corruption, torture, unemployment, poverty, inflation etc.) but the biggest(?) reason why is because all (80%?) of the people in the country want to destroy Israel (and the Great Satan) but their rulers are all supported by the US and have made peace with Israel…
This is what “Democracy” means in the Middle East:
Video: “When Egypt is Free We Will be Able to Destroy Israel”…
http://weaselzippers.us/2011/01/30/video-when-egypt-is-free-we-will-be-able-to-destroy-israel/
Re: Syria – Assad is a member of the Alawite minority community. Given his Alawite identity, most Syrians do not view him as one of them. And he also represses them brutally, so of course they hate him, and can’t wait to overthrow him.
All of the Middle Eastern despots will be overthrown…If they wanna survive they will have to gun down (tens of thousands?) of “protesters” in the streets…in order to “earn” the “respect” of their people. Americans don’t understand how the Arab mind works. If you aren’t Dominating them, they think you’re weak. They are in it for the long haul. 100 years is nothing to them. (In that regard, they’re like the Communists. All that matters is that they are making progress. Time is irrelevant. Hence “progressives”: progressing towards Communism.) All these people understand is Power.
Mr. Ledeen:
“Obama’s statement the other day (yesterday if I remember rightly) was not encouraging. “The future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people” and we will support them. What does that mean? ”
I agree with Winston above at #6…it means that the Gentleman Allegedly from Hawaii is voting “Present”.
Sadly, that seems to be the prudent thing to do publicly at the moment. A little empty “Obama Chin Music” to soothe the savage rioters.
Privately, I’d wager that they have gamed engineering a military putsch to gakk Mubarak and set up a transitional government with promised elections to see if that doesn’t get the beggars off the streets.
(It’s pretty clear that Mubarak is the problem AND the solution here. To put it in maritime terms, the crew is mutinying against their captain, so he responded by firing his chief mate, the bosun, and the ship’s cook…frilliant.)
Meanwhile, we promise support and recognition to whichever party wins the election,(more support if the winners are not the MB’s, much less support if the winners are).
Y’know, the South American countries could be a valuable resource in this, they all transitioned from military dictatorships to democracies fairly recently, and with comparatively little bloodshed.
US policy is turning quickly disastrous. Despite Sunni-Shiite differences, the Iranians must be thrilled (the regime). The statements from Obama and Clinton are provoking, or encouraging, a popular uprising whose result will not be good. Egyptians are not really capable of forming a coherent, reasonable government based on their ‘collective will.’ Perhaps Iranians are.
The results of this will indeed be dire, unless the military retains power and the MB is controlled. Yet there appears to be enough ‘Islamism’ already in the structure – despite most talking heads saying this is not so – that coopting the MB is a recipe for disaster.
I would like to believe that Bibi and the security apparatus in Israel is preparing to retake parts or all of Sinai; or at least to do so if events spiral out of control. Instead, they will wait the US ‘lead’ and the US has become a shadow of what it once was. This Administration is going to bring h#ll at the current rate.
There are also some similarities between the Tea Party and the Muslim Brotherhood. When the government is corrupt and non-responsive and the captive media is just the propaganda directorate for the corrupt government, then unusual steps must be taken to reestablish the will of the people. Here, we had Palin and the Tea Party to begin the process to take the country back. In Egypt, they have no Palin or Tea Party but they still have to try to get rid of a corrupt, non-responsive government.
Yes but the average Tea Party member is more or less an “average American” — that is to say he/she
– does NOT want to decapitate his enemies
– does NOT want to to chop the hands off of thieves
– does NOT want to subject rape victims to 100 lashes
– does not want to establish a dominant state religion to which all other religions, at best, will be dhimmis and pay a regular heavy tax, and at worst, will be killed for apostasy
– and on that note, must I really go on?
The Muslim Brotherhood is the EXACT SUNNI SYMMETRICAL ANALOGY to the Twelver Shiite Mullahs ruling the IRI. Think of them as a two-headed snake if you want. One is Shia, the other is Sunni. There are LARGE caches of documents about the MB which one can read on the internet — documents left behind by various MB members when hastily leaving apartments that show a HIGHLY thought out, a meticulously brilliant plan for the infiltration of both Europe and America. They think in the VERY long term (50 – 100 years).
The Iranian Mullahs are operating under an entirely differnt religion. They believe that the little boy / baby in the well in Qom can be effectivel “coaxed out” under the right circumstances to become their “12th Mahdi” (effectively their Messiah) — and that he will then finish off the death and desctruction which they have already begun.
In Shiite Hadiths it is written that in order to coax this “little Imam” out and transform him into the 12th Mahdi, the already existing Twelvers need to “start the ball rolling: by instigating MASSIVE death and destruction, as well as bring about massive starvation (I think there’s one other requirement which I’ve forgotten). But then they expect him to rise out of his “occulted” hiding place and lead the Shiite armies to destroy the rest of the word and bring about the afterlife. They do not have nearly the patience as the Sunnis and the MB.
Since the MB do not share this ideology and eschatology, they see the battle in very different terms.
Great article.
the biggest problem with the west is they do not understand dictatorship or totalitarian countries. they lived their lives in freedom and expect that that is the norm.
they think dialogue will fix any and all issues.
Michael I think the prostrate cancer part is not much of a trigger.
the way I see it. the radicals, muslim brotherhood and friends have been in the background for a long time .. fomenting(fermenting) and planning.
the US put a weak marxist/progressive into power (he may still be a muslim since I have never heard him denounce his birthright into the cult). WEAK HORSE ..or partner.
QE2 savaged the working poor of third world countries. fuel prices spiked to cover the shortfall brought about by the devalued dollar.
Tunisia riots started with food prices.
islamists move in to call for democracy and freedom …ONE MAN ONE VOTE ONE TIME.
check and mate.
wait for it ….obama will call for el-baradei to form the next government in egypt. el-baradei is the muslim brotherhoods guy.
I do think the fools in the white house could not plan a orgy in a whore house so I don’t think they planned any of this purposely ..but they have no problem piling on.
The similarities between 1979 Iran and 2011 Egypt are supporting unpopular tyrants that held power over citizens with massive force and diverting the Nations resources to themselves and corporate interests.
We installed the Shah of Iran, overthrowing a democratically elected government of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. What happened in 1979 in Iran was how US and British actions in 1953 finally played out.
Egypt has been ruled by Hosni Mubarek’s corrupt regime for 30 years, their people have had enough of watching the nations resources mismanaged. Massive Aid to Egypt ended up in pockets of the few, or pay off for using Egypt by the CIA as a base. What is happening in Egypt today is how the last 30 years of assisting a tyrant is finally playing out.
The US and Israel are now demanding peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt, a nation they meddled with for the last 30 years.
Best of Luck.
“We installed the Shah of Iran, overthrowing a democratically elected government of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. What happened in 1979 in Iran was how US and British actions in 1953 finally played out.”
Do stop with the Narrative, will ya?
The Shah had ruled Iran since 1941; the CIA didn’t “install him”. Mossadegh was a dictator; ‘democratically elected,’ yes, but then so was Chavez. Nor did Operation Ajax have much to do with Mossadegh’s fall, either- when he declared the King deposed, the monarchist Army overthrew him. The CIA’s job was “like pushing a screen door” according to Kermit Roosevelt who ran it.
Mubarak is only in charge- why? Because Anwar Sadat was assassinated by a Muslim Brotherhood fanatic. That’s our fault too, I suppose?
My award for the most inane comment of the day.
I thought ‘Talnik’ (a Hebrew dimunitive?) won the award for his utterly spurious USS Liberty reference. I sometimes wonder how many Americans are like this. Meanwhile, I rarely hear any Israeli saying similar things in response to all the broken promises from the US Admins to Israel, starting with LBJ ripping up Ike’s promise to keep the Gulf of Aqaba open, on and on…
Correction: Israel is not demanding anything! They know what the alternative to Mubarak is.
Here it is – The Right wants Mubarak the left wants otherwise
I disagree with any evaluation of Obama that portrays him as confused and lacking determination.
He is a marxist, an internationalist subversive.
Any blow to America’s power, that he sees as mere imperialism, is welcome to him.
He knows perfectly that the regimes of Northern Africa and in the Middle East are a domino: should all of them fall in the hands of the islamic fundamentalists, the very roads of oil would be closed.
A catastrophic blow to the world’s economy today would entail unfathomable consequences.
The darkest dreams of the internationalist subversives are getting true.
It is a sweet time for all the enemies of America.
They do not lack determination, they are doing exactly what is needed to destroy America.
Prove me wrong.
You’re right on!!!
Islam is expanding, radical islam is growing, the muslims all over the World are encouraged by this Kenyan/Indonesian fraud in the White House.
America, Conservative America that is, must throw out the phony in the Oval Office, and then deal with islam.
Anything else is just half measure, and above all else an acquiescence to islam’s expansion. BHO is the problem.
Remember when the USSR dictator asked how many divisions the pope had?
We all know how THAT hubris worked out for him and his minions!
Well, how many divisions does “Mohammed”, aka the “pope” of Islam, have, eh?
Perhaps the most wondrous fact is that the countries in the Middle East have been able to be ruled by mostly secular tyrants, even though their subjects are completely attached to their weird Islamic beliefs, epitomized by the myriad virgins awaiting after a glorious death fighting for them.
I’d say there are ONLY virgin-loving “divisions” thereabouts, and the Muslim “Iron Curtain” has been completely breeched.
Therefore, I’d look at 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down, as the year to compare with 2011.
Sort of a reverse “osmosis”, wherein the rule of Muslim law logically asserts itself.
Demography rules—see Mark Steyn’s “America Alone”.
Without in-depth research, one of the best outcomes I can see is a military coup with a counsel of generals overseeing a transition to democracy. The biggest question, though, is if Egypt has an Ataturk up to the task?
I thought his name(s) was/were Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar El Sadat. And we all saw where all these three idiots ended up, and what they brought to this World, misery to the West at the end.
There isn’t any “good” “moderate” “secular” islamist; please, realize it. Islam can’t coexist with the West under any name, one must give.
The West rests on three pillars: Democracy, capitalism and Christianity – none of them compatible with islam.
Ataturk? I thought his egyptian name was/were Gamal Abdel Nasser and Muhammad Anwar El Sadat. All three were individuals who brought problems and a lot of trouble to the West – although some in the West played the useful idiot to them (Peanut Carter coming to mind as being the last one).
But BHO isn’t their “useful idiot;” he’s islam’s agent here.
Washington is full of fools from the top down. We continue to elect the idiots with the most financial backing instead of the intelligent leaders with the most common sense.
As far as Egypt goes and any place where muslims riot, the only thing they truly understand & respect is force. If It was me I’d get the artillery out.
“The Shah had ruled Iran since 1941; the CIA didn’t “install him”. Mossadegh was a dictator; ‘democratically elected,’ yes, but then so was Chavez. Nor did Operation Ajax have much to do with Mossadegh’s fall, either- when he declared the King deposed, the monarchist Army overthrew him. The CIA’s job was “like pushing a screen door” according to Kermit Roosevelt who ran it”
This is pure fantasy. Democratically elected is democratically elected. Who are you to decide the leader of another nation..?
If the people of Venezuela elect Chavez, then that is the leader of the Nation. If Iranian People wanted Dr. Mossadeq to lead Iran, who is the CIA or Britain or anyone else to undermine their Nation.
Britain and the US removed Mossadeq, he refused to bow to Petroluem companies and worked to spread the resources of Petroleum sales to the common people instead of corporate few. Britain and the USA could not allow one of the largest petroleum regions to act independently, and Dr. Mossadeq was removed.
it may make you feel better to create these fantastical theories, but the reality is the USA, Britain, Israel, Russia, have been meddling in the affairs of other countries for the better part of the 20th Century. The overthrows, coups,
murders, and assassinations, etc are coming home to roost.
It may take decades for events to play out, but they always do. Enjoy the show.
mossadeqh was appointed. by the shah.
alex
In the middle east there is a saying “one person, one vote, one time”
And that’s what you seem to support. But then you imagine you know what democracy is.
Single first name. A pro.
But at least this guy attempts to make a case. That’s more than most of them bother with.
Mr. Ledden: so what you are saying is f… the Egytian people and let’s decide what is good for them. let’s talk to the Generals etc..
not at all. read it again. I’m saying we must be clear about what we want. then the egyptians will decide what to do.
and the daily double …who is barak h. obama
yes indeed.
I am amused at the “what about the people” argument. even though this is deadly serious I fear that the egyptian people will suffer more when the muslim brotherhood take over …obama will back the muslim brotherhood candidate el-baradei.
In some ways, the Egyptians and every other people that live under tyrants ‘decide’ their political fates by the political-social structure they create in their daily lives. Americans, for instance, have a tyranny-resistant clause in their makeups, though they choose to be ignorant of many things and too trusting. Israelis are willing to live with a left-leaning establishment, but signal their limits in different ways, and their futility with the ‘vote right, get left’ system by either getting politically involved or apathetic. I see no evidence, Michael, that this nation is capable of governing itself democratically. Let them try – who is stopping them? Miriam will say it’s the evil Jooz and Americans, but in fact nobody is stopping them.
OK here goes:
Mubarak must go.
We back a military takeover until we find a suitable leader.
The region and world economy cannot afford chaos and ultimately Islamic fundamentalist control. Certainly America cannot.
Meanwhile we assemble whatever secular Eqyptian intellectuals, those widely respected by its public, to convene and plan for a new leader and cabinet. At the same time we promise aid to this gathering of intellectuals in the form of food housing and money and the promise of jobs.
We must maintain order.
We must not let Islamacists control Egypt.
We cannot afford to sit idly by.
Once the president’s actions turn to overthrow and a bloodbath of Iranian proportion what will he say. After the genocide that will be far worse and aimed at other religions, what will the president say? Or a better question to ask is after 2012 will Obama be just like Carter and sharpshot everything the next president does to correct the mess?
Carter is the 2nd worse president ever, with his 1) allowing the Ayatollah to take over Iran leading to the now nuclear-capable Islamist power in the most volatile region in the world, and 2) signing into law the 1st Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), which directly led to the global housing bubble, world-wide recession, and continued high unemployment in America.
1st worse president ever: B.O. Why? Because he hasn’t learnt from history.
I think your parallel is exact, at least as far as American handling of this problem goes. The “experts” have been telling us that there are few if any parallels between the situation in Egypt and what happened in Iran, but I don’t think a lot of Americans believe that. The last time we got involved with a “popular uprising,” we ended up with a humiliating hostage crisis and a theocracy that’s still causing us trouble, probably even killing American soldiers in Iraq.
I think it’s really a trust issue. We’d love to believe that all the Egyptians want is democracy – just a freely-elected government that responds to the citizens’ needs and tries to make their lives better. I think we’d even accept the necessity of Islam being involved somehow. But what we really expect is…Iran. Thanks to the Iranian Revolution, we always suspect that Muslims would rather be ruled by an unelected clique of old men in turbans who claim to speak with the authority of God. In other words, we think they’re naive, backward, superstitious SUCKERS.
I’d love to see them prove us wrong. I just don’t know how we can trust them until they do.
While far from an expert on the Middle East, I am supremely confident that whatever happens in this situation, the results will be sheer insanity. I base that assessment on about 1300 years of repitious insanity in the region.
And I am just as confident that the maxist in the white house wouldn’t do the right thing, even if he somehow managed to find somebody who would advise him to do it. He is doubtless rubbing his hands in glee at the chaos. His default position, drummed in by a lifetime of radicalism, is that chaos is good.
So I’m neutral about the whole thing, although my sympathies are with the Israeli posters, who certainly know much more about the details of the insanities than Americans will ever know. It’s just one more step in a long and seemingly inevitable series that will inevitably result in the destruction of the Islamic world, and probably a lot of other worlds as well. The bottom line is that Muslims are culturally incapable of understanding the technology that will finally destroy them. It ought to be sooner than later, but it won’t be, since the greater enemy, the marxists, view the situation as a good deal for them, and because there isn’t anybody in the West with the courage to do what will eventually be done anyway.
……….The Obama administration has courted Egyptian Islamists from the start. It invited the Muslim Brotherhood to the president’s 2009 Cairo speech, even though the organization is officially banned in Egypt. It has rolled out the red carpet to the Brotherhood’s Islamist infrastructure in the U.S. — CAIR, the Muslim American Society, the Islamic Society of North America, the Ground Zero mosque activists — even though many of them have a documented history of Hamas support. To be sure, the current administration has not been singular in this regard. The courting of Ikhwan-allied Islamists has been a bipartisan project since the early 1990s, and elements of the intelligence community and the State Department have long agitated for a license to cultivate the Brotherhood overtly. They think what Anwar Sadat thought: Hey, we can work with these guys.
There is a very good chance we are about to reap what they’ve sown. We ought to be very afraid…………………….
……………quote from national review. be afraid. here is the link to the entire piece by ANDREW C. McCARTHY
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/258419/fear-muslim-brotherhood-andrew-c-mccarthy
Mr. Ledeen…You should have included another word when you stated ["There are some eery similarities between Egypt 2011 and Iran 1979, and some of them are unfortunately about American leadership."] That word? “….some eery [UNDERLYING] similarities…”
Why must we continue to confuse the relevant with irrelevance?
It is irrelevant who the players are or were or, their health. What is relevant, is the creation of the United Nations and the predominate role the United States has taken on its behalf, post WWII, into the worlds geopolitics. Contrary to what you seemingly believe, I think the record will show that in each instance of foreign political meddling, we have instigated or otherwise been a party to failures in either the short term and or, in more instances, the longer term. Simply, the underlying thesis, post WWII has been systematic nation “re-building” around the world with the U.S. willing taking on that responsibility….or predisposed commandment….void anywhere in our constitution.
I wish the constitutional party I switched over to in ’52 would return to their roots…though seemingly, it is a bit to late today. We have never had, nor do we today, the constitutional “right” to bear any of our nations principals or desires upon other nations political or social choices….so long as they don’t attempt to tread on us.
As Traditional Constitutional American patriots, I think it high time to recognize our mistakes and address them honestly rather than continue and defend them with the irrelevant. At many levels, we as a nation, cannot survive if we continue down this path of manipulating the nations of the world for some greater good as we define it be. In many ways and at many levels, we (American politicians), have become the worlds dictator and that simply is NOT what America was founded to be…and violates our every fundamental principals.
Once again….. we (America) find ourselves in the pot of hypocrisy, having manipulated, supported and gone to bed with a dictator regime. Now, at the same time, evangelizing the free rights of the people to dictate their own national destiny. So, yes there are similarities between the current events of Egypt and Iran, along with many other such instances around the world, past and present.
i agree with most of the points mentioned especially regarding the naivity of U.S. unless their present strategy is buying time.
regarding mr. elbardai, i don’t believe he is a friend of iran, because when he was the head of united nation atomic agency, he has been more often insulted by iranian government because of his unfavorable reports about iran’s nuclear activities.
what saddens me most is the stupidity of some media reporters and expert analysts such as foad ajami, david bergen and john branon of CNN. who believe that the moslem brotherhood is a non violant party. the history of this party is full of assasinations both in iran and in egypt. this party during the pahlavi regime assasinated hajir, razmara mansour and attempted the assasination of the shah at tehran university, they were also behind the assasination of president sadat. Iman al zawahery was a member of this party as well as most of the leaders of current government of iran, such as Khameneie, rafsanjani and the deceesd khalkhali (the hanging judge).
should this party get the chance, it will use the relative popularity of dr. elbaradei, with many promisses of democracy and freedom, and once they establish themselves, in no time they will get rid of him. remember khomeini, who when in paris fulled all the media and through them he fulled the americans and many simple minded people iranians (like me) and non iranian alike to believe that he is going to stay in Qum and leave the government in the hands of professionals. you know who were the first casualties!!!?
the very people who helped him to become the suprem leader ( Bazargan, Banisadr, Ghotbzadeh, rajavi, kianoory ) and even the grand ayatollah shariatmadari, who saved him from execution by making him ayatollah when he (khomeini) was in prison for instigating the uprising of 1963.
the U.S. government and most important of all, the egyption people should know that mullahs are the most corrupt and opportunist people in the world and when it serves their interests they would not hesitate to betray their best friends and even those who brought them to power. as ayatollah kashani did to most beloved nationalist priminister of iran ( Dr.Mossadegh )in 1951 and Khameneie is doing now to rafsanjani.
the best senario for egypt is a strong millitary transition government that must stay in power for as long as it takes to
improve the lives of the people with gradual move towards democracy and fulfilling the aspiration of that nation.
financial and political support of U.S., Europan countries, Saudi arabia and rich PERSIAN GULF countries could expediate
the transition period considerably.
as an iranian i am sure that our proud people with the help of the brave and the good army ( not the revolutionary guards or the thugs called Baseege ) would learn from egypt and over throw the barberic regime of the mullahs of iran.
uh, some say that these “evolutions” are monitorised, by whom? guess !
http://www.iran-resist.org/article6213.html
There can be no happy endings here. There are only two possible scenarios here: either Mubarak (or someone else just like him) retains power, or Egypt becomes a hardline Islamic theocracy, essentially a Sunni/arab version of Iran. And the smart money is on the theocracy.
Anyone who suggests that there is even a remote possibility of this resulting in a secular democracy knows absolutely nothing about the Middle East.
Israel is right to worry, but they probably do have a little bit of time; The Islamic Republic of Egypt will want to do some internal house cleaning before they focus on Israel.
The ones who really need to worry right now are the Copts. Their days are truly numbered.
Oh, there could be a sweet ending, too: millions of people showing up in DC and overthrowing Barry by asking and receiving his resignation (and that of idiot Joe the Biden). Now, that would be something…
UPHEAVAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST: IS IT 1979 IRAN ALL OVER AGAIN?
The signs are troubling:
Obama won the presidency on November 4, 2008 which fell on the 29th anniversary of the hostage crisis in Iran-the first act of war by militant Islam on the US leading to the 9/11 catastrophe 22 years later. This occured under Jimmy “we have overcome our fear of Communism” Carter-the man who deserted the pro-Western, secularizing Shah in favor of the US hating Islamist Ayatollah Khomenie believing he was a democratic reformer. Ominously the Shah fled to (and died in) Egypt a country now in turmoil like the one he left.
On April 6, 2009, shortly after Obama delivered his first fawning speech to Islamfrom Ankara, Turkey (his first trip to a Moslem country, which is now an ally of Iran and turning Islamist) a Turkish-born Canadian citizen stole a small single engine plane from a Canadian flight school and flew it across the US border where he was forced to land by two pursuing F-16 jets. Ironically and ominously, and I do not believe this was a mere coincidence, the plane landed in CARTER COUNTY, MISSOURI…………….
Click my name to continue reading article.
For what it’s worth, I doubt that Mohammed el-Baradei would last very long in Egypt. He is far from universally popular among Egyptians, he is neither an Army guy nor a “tough guy”, he looks like an Ikhwan puppet, and he wants the top job too much. Put that all together, and it doesn’t look like he would last long.
For example, Dr. Zahi Hawass does not appear to want the top job, which is precisely why he has more credibility than Dr. Mohammed el-Baradei. Dr. el-Baradei increasing anti-Americanism reveals a streak of demagoguery that is immediately obvious; moreover he appears to lack the ability to feign a lack of interest in gaining power. Dr. el-Baradei has no power base in Egypt except for his willingness to align himself with the Ikhwan. In contrast, Dr. Hawass commands respect as a nationalistic Egyptologist.
Although the Ikhwan may seek to subvert this revolution much as the Bolsheviks did in 1917, they face similar obstacles. The Bolsheviks had to fight a major civil war and military intervention by several world powers before they could conquer Russia.
So, could the Ikhwan take over Egypt? Yes. However, their ascendancy is not inevitable. If the Ikhwan is perceived by Egyptians to be a bulwark for the Mubarak regime rather than a true opposition, anti-Mubarak feelings can transfer over to the Ikhwan. Many other Egyptian factions can stop their bid for power, and it would be a mistake to assume that such factions do not exist.
I think too many people in the United States government are panicking. There is nothing to panic about; showing panic will only sow suspicion among our friends and embolden our enemies. There is much that we don’t know about the situation in Egypt. Chances are that our enemies don’t know much more than we do.
Revolutions happen; they are part of life. In such times, people look for maturity and strength. When the United States shows both, we gain friends and lose enemies. When the United States shows neither, we lose friends and gain enemies.
“Cancer, Carter and Obama” being the title of this piece, I would suggest:
“The Cancer Obama must be removed” the sooner, the better.
Do not mix never between Egypt 2011 and Iran 1979, ElBaradei is not Khomeini, on the contrary, his views on Twitter showed him as enthusiast democrat
exactly what Khomeini said about himself…
This is the inevitable outgrowth of two years of clueless leadership by BHO. It has taken about 2 years for the rest of the world to figure out that this guy is weak and incompetent and now the party really begins in earnest. I appreciate the comment made by Proreason that the Muslim acendency in Egypt and greater Middle East will lead to eventual destruction of the Islamic world-just wondering what the next two years will bring before Mitt rides to the rescue.
US cannot support tyrants period.
That only works of course if US also is willing to confront its enemies. Obama is doing the right thing here. Carter’s mistake was not an end to supporting an unelected regime but not opposing Khomoinist when they attacked US over and over again.
US should completely withdraw support for all dictatorships but also be ready to use force to support democrats everywhere and inflict devastation to enemies of freedom.
The combination works and its the moral position: Tell Mubarak to go but also in 2009 state that the Iranian regime waging war on Iranian democrats is waging war on the US; for US is as Communist used to say about Soviet Union, the central revolutionary state. It’s not too late. Once the economy improves, tell the Iranian people that this time if they come to streets US will level regime targets and send the troops to fight with them. Say it and send the fleet and see what happens.
I am a Kurd from Syria, would love to live the rest of my life in a democratic system as the rest of the people, because since my childhood I have seen only this arbitrary system which has robbed me and my people of our rights. I see the results of the Egyptian revolution, because I hope to build a democratic system in Syria to regain freedom for me and my people
I support Mubarack…If this administration wants him to go…We must really need him to stay…
i have 2 advices for president obama and dr.ElBaradie.
mr. president, you are a very decent and smart human being. don’t let advisers like former sec. syrus vance and activists like ramsy clark mislead you. i did not like president mobarak, but now i admire his integrity and his patriotisim. like most of other middle east dictators, at least he is not a theif, otherwise like the rest of them he would have left his country soonner than you ORDERED HIM. why couldn’t you wait untill he oversee the transition of government. why should you humiliate him. yes he was a dictator, but considering the same Non Violent Ikhwan al muslimin killed president sadat infront of his eyes don’t you think to some extent he was right to rule with iron fists?. how many egyption did he kill during his 30 years of rulling egypt. i dont think it was more than one percent or the islamic regime of iran killed in the same period of time. the same stats goes for number of political prisoers, baned news papers, and assasinated oposition politicion, writers and many other intelectuals. mr. president don’t rush him out, the alternative is terrible for egyption people, other middle east countries, united states and israel. don’t put your trust in the hand of the Ikhwan AL Muslimin, they are assasins. yes, there could be some intelectuals, lawyers and well educated people among them, the same as we had in iran at the time of revolution . you know what happened to them, they were executed, imprisoned or in exile.
Dr. ElBaradie, you are a scholar and a good man, don’t be naive and let the assasins use your integrity to attract supporters and then they will steal the revolution. believe me you will be the first casualty. as khomeini did to bazargan and ayatallah kashani did to dr. mossadegh.
today i read an article by alakhbar reporting that the friday prayer imam of qum ” iran ” advising the people of egypt and tunis to accept the suprim leader of iran as their holy pop! what is next, sharia law for the democtacy loving people of egypt !
dr. ElBaradei, help the egyption people by staying away from Ikhwan al mulimin and if you want to participate in any campain, do it as indipendent.
god help the protesters.
How many inside the Beltway are willing to see if there are alternatives to the status quo?
Political correctness be damned, there are differences between those countries which score well when tested by Freedom house and Transparency International, and those which do not. So, those that test well have to set up a trusteeship until Egypt is ready to govern itself.
I reiterate. Look at the pages where FDR shows up in “Lost Crusade: America in Vietnam” by Chester L. Cooper, and apply what he mused for Vietnam to those places in the world which do not score well when tested by Freedom House and Transparency International.
Most of you are confused about Egypt because you are confused about the United States. I have to say it all here and it will be all over the place, perhaps one day I have my own blog and write more organized So allow me and be patient:
United States is not and should not be a “great power” negotiating pathways toward stability but a revolutionary force concerned only with Creative Destruction.
The only allies United States should have are people that beleive essentially in what the founders believed which should be supported by all means. This is the nature of ideological transformation, the nature of a revolutionary state; it is simply blind to “geopolitics”, deaf to “realpolitik” and dumb to apologies or even explanation for use of violence against its enemies. It is Universal and doubtless; does not for a second care or question that any people or any region is somehow not capable of comprehending its principles.
Americans are and should be fundamentalists an act with the same vigor and righteousness communists and Khomienists and Salafis behave. It is NOT the only way US can win; it is the only way US can survive. Yes, the very survival of the American republic hangs in balance still; it is not over until the world is completely transformed and all competing ideas from Chinese fascism to Russian ultra-nationalism to Islamic expansionism, neo-socialism, Indian Caste system… to whatever other ideas and isms past and future are completely and utterly defeated. The founders’ ideas are the only correct ones; all other ideas are wrong, reactionary and must be annihilated together with whoever is willing to resist the revolution just like the British who had to be killed or Japanese pride and glory that had to be crushed.
A democratic revolutionary state is merely concerned with majority rule amongst those who beleive in its ideals not an arbitrary majority, national or ethnic or religious. Concretely, this means no respect whatsoever for mere numeric and temporal masses but support for those, possibly a minority, any place, anytime that have the right ideas. What do you do when they are tiny and ineffectual? You send money and “missionaries” and convert (Is that not what Israel is or at least should be? a democratic population carved out and defended? happens to be mostly Jewish with Hebrew language and history that should be preserved — Hint that is how Israelis should start to view themselves) . What do you when they are not strong enough? You help them mobilize and wait, when the crucial time comes, the revolutionary condition, you help them seize power and crush their enemies with whatever force needed. The German fascists were not allowed to have any role in New Germany and allies ruled with an Iron fist on behalf of democratic forces and yes everything worked out. Iranian democrats can take over the state if the regime and the 20 percent of the population that support them are crushed. US can and must do it, could have done it.
The kurds in northern Iraq should be supported etc.
What do you do when things go badly? If democrats lose and tyrants win as the result of transformation gone badly? As in Iran? You confront and defeat them anytime you can in any battlefield they choose and wait until your allies are strong enough to take over the State then you apply all means. How do we know that the moment will arrive? Because we have spend centuries forging the rational humanist secular ideas and they are mighty ideas, the right ideas, just look and see around you, we are wining one state at a time at an incredible rate.
BUT BUT But
But you cannot do that when you engage in silly things like 1953 coup, or criminal things like arming and supporting Saddam. No you cannot support Mubarak. You cannot give in to fear or Israel’s fear, ( particularly the quiet part regarding how a democratic Egypt might not be so deferential to Israel’s very difficult ethnic problems with Arabs and Jews and “sacred” places; we do not care who gets this and temple and mosque or “settlement” what is Judea and what is not; WE as in universal revolutionary forces support only the Israeli democracy not its precise version of history, or its rising theocratic Evangelical demons)
If your weapon is a revolutionary idea, if you are not a great power playing games of statecraft (at any rate US is so bad it, why bother?) then you have be to CONSISTENT and VIOLENT.
In Iraq US paid for decades of realpolitik; this is why things were so expensive, harbor evil, pay for it severely as slavery, the cardinal sin of the Republic exacted 700,000 men before it was excised from our souls, Iraq asked for 1 trillion.
US had worked hard to weaken its true allies in Iraq and Iran…, abandoned the moral high ground and attacked Saddam’s regime sans revolutionary condition (the reason why I opposed the war, as Soviets did in Afghanistan) yet, you see that even Irag might turn out well with only 4000 deaths; US should be ready and have the will to sacrifice far more before the revolution wins. Democracy is complex and fragile, that democracies are robust is a myth. Its biggest weakness is that it has to be win everywhere before it can be even remotely safe; for to play fair and survive, you have to get rid of all bullies first. ( I learned that even as a child at 8; I organized a “Hang” in Persian, a “platoon”, and beat up the bullies before establishing a fair order for all, and against our organized and ideological group the separate strong kids had no choice but conform with their occasional bloody noses and black eyes
The universal fight is not over.
Be aware of the mighty ancient order that lies at the heart of Asia in China. It knows well how to reward superior minds and houses the most intelligent men on earth. See the IQ results on the Asia’s pacific shores. Do not underestimate an enemy who knows scientists are more valuable than financiers (something we do not know).
So there is a period of repentance that must be observed with suffering and fasting and death , 9/11 and more 9/11′s to be endured until US is viewed in Western Asia as it was viewed in Eastern Europe: a beacon of freedom. More important that “losing” Egypt is the purity of ideas, our shining steel not be dulled in black stones of support for tyrants:
No US cannot support Mubarak, no matter the consequences or cost.
Like any other great historic enterprise and this is the greatest of them all, we flow in tumultuous rivers of blood to reach the calm shining sea when the night falls, the Moon smiles at our fortune and history ends.