The Revolt Against the Supreme Leader Begins
First things first: so far as I know, the bazaars are still on strike. And yes, I know that the Los Angeles Times said it was over a couple of days ago, but for once I think they have it wrong. As of Sunday night, Iran time, the grand bazaar in Tehran, and those in Isfahan, and above all Tabriz, were all closed. Indeed, even many stores outside the bazaar in Tabriz were shut, and I have been receiving reports for several days claiming that a merchants’strike is spreading throughout East Azerbaijan. In the last few days, the bazaar in Mashad — a city of enormous religious importance to the regime — has also shut down, at least in part.
It takes a lot of nerve for the bazaaris to go on strike, since they and their families have been repeatedly threatened by regime thugs. Not, mind you, in a general way, but very directly and personally; their houses are visited by security officials and their families are called to warn of dire consequences if they do not open their stores. So far, the threats have failed.
Moreover, in the city of Zahedan — where the murderous suicide attacks took place last week (the best coverage, as usual, was from Banafsheh, who was first with the pictures of the killers) — the Revolutionary Guards control things during the day, but once night falls, anti–regime forces, many of them armed, take to the streets. In short, the people have lost their fear. The regime may very well arrest them, beat them, torture them, and kill them, but it is getting more and more difficult to control them.
Very few news stories noticed the two most significant aspects of the bombing at the Zahedan mosque. The first was the regime’s panicky reaction: at first they announced, correctly, that the attack had been carried out by Balouch fighters. Then they realized that this was bad for the regime, since they had bragged for some time that the Revolutionary Guards had shut down all possibility of protest, following last year’s devastating suicide bombing of a big RG meeting in the region. So they quickly changed their story, reverting to the party line that anything bad in Iran is the fault of the Satanic forces embodied in the United States and Israel.
The second key feature of the attack in Zahedan was the day on which it occurred: it was Pasdar day, the occasion of celebrating the great strength and virtue of the Revolutionary Guards. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei himself had delivered the official tribute that very morning in the capital. The suicide bombing showed that the regime is not in control of the situation, and that the people have not accepted its authority.
Not that the regime has stopped trying; in a spasm of repressive regulations that would make even the mayor of New York City jealous, the mullahs announced a new crackdown on un-Islamic dress for the women (leading one commentator to remark that it is now officially a crime to be female in Iran), stipulated permissible hairstyles for the men, forbade smoking in executive branch offices, and, in one of those executive orders that leaves you breathless, banned sexual intercourse during daylight hours. Sex in Iran is now kosher — sorry, halal — only during the night. Apparently, the authorities have not contemplated the political consequences of sexual frustration among a famously young population, but then this regime has already had devastating effects on the psychology of the Iranian people. According to an Iranian research institute, Aria, an amazing 58% of Tehran residents suffer from depression, and the chief of police there announced that nearly half a million are addicted to drugs, while unemployment, which is particularly severe among young people and college graduates, is now at 14%.
CRIEnglish.Com – Iran Rejects U.S. Senator’s Offer to Visit Tehran: MP
http://english.cri.cn/6966/2010/07/19/1461s583854.htm
says it was John Kerry who wants to talk!
It would be John Kerry, the doofus that made pilgrimages to Ortega in Managua and Assad in Damascus. Oh yes, we can TALK to tyrants. Hooray for us!
Good grief, that doofus Kerry again!! Isn’t it time to retire or go plant grass or something. He hasn’t had a good idea for decades, if ever. It’s bad enough we have a President who is the master of appeasement. He doesn’t need an assistant; he makes a big enough mess all by himself!
Good grief, that doofus Kerry again!! Isn’t it time for him to retire or go plant grass or something. He hasn’t had a good idea for decades, if ever. It’s bad enough we have a President who is the master of appeasement. He doesn’t need an assistant; he makes a big enough mess all by himself!
I bet the mullahs and their russian friends regret making Azerbaijan such a hot bed for rebellion now. The ghost of Stalin returns to bit his collaborators once again
“Who were the Americans who asked for the meetings?”
According to this article from Fars News Agency, that would be Congressman Howard L. Berman (D,CA), chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. I’m thinking this didn’t happen but someone should ask the Congressman to see what he says.
http://www.politicaltheatrics.net/2010/07/iran-rejects-us-offer-of-talks/
If Berman is using back channels to try and establish dialogue with these murderers while they flail about in their disarray, he is too stupid to remain in Congress.
The best thing that could happen for mid east stability would be the over throw of the mullahs. The Iranian people could then try them and mete out justice. Alternatively, they could track the murderers down and hang them.
In any event the entire middle east would be more secure in the long run. Hezbollah and Hamas would be weakened and the rest of the middle east would no longer have to worry about the expansionist tendencies of the theocracy.
Congressman Berman’s office had no clue about this and told me to e-mail the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. I’m waiting for a response. I didn’t contact Kerry’s office and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee doesn’t have an e-mail address in its contact list. Kerry did contemplate a visit back in December.
http://www.newser.com/story/76834/kerry-mulls-iran-visit.html
Unless it was the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in which case that would be Senator John Kerry. Now that I would believe.
“Boroujerdi did not specify whether the committee in question was in the House of Representatives or the Senate.”
http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/us-congress-requests-talks-with-tehran-says-iranian-official/
When the Iranians had said Kerry wanted to go to Iran to talk back in December Kerry’s office denied it. He will deny it now too I’m betting, but who know what is the truth when two liars are telling you different stories?
Mr. Ledden: as soon as read your post, I just called my sister. you are right. the Bazaarin Tehran is open but partially. the Gold merchents and and merchents who sell and trade textile are closed. the bazzars in Isfahan, Tabriz, Mashad who you said so correctly that are very imporatnant to the regim are still closed. the Bazzar in Hamedan is closed also. keep your fingers crossed.
The American military likes to brag that they can put a cruise missile through a 2nd story bedroom window from 500 miles out. Why are these dirtbags still alive?
US politics.
My brother was in the military and he can’t hit the broadside of a barn.
You have to know which 2nd story bedroom window is the right one. That takes human intel. Something this country has refused to use since Carter pretty much outlawed it.
An excellent & informative account, really, I’m impressed.
My question to Mr Ledeen is how many Revolutionary Guards are there? Are there other security organizations loyal to the regime? What about the military, how would you judge their loyalty to the regime?
What I’m getting at, of course, is that the current regime will use any amount of force to stay in power. They will intimidate, torture, kill as many Iranians as they feel necessary to hold onto power.
Put another way, this is a regime which would risk the destruction of Iran in a nuclear war with Israel. Why would they hesitate to kill thousands of Iranians when eventually, for the sake of their insane ideology, they would cause the death of millions? Add to this that their personal survival is at stake – what do you think will happen to members of the regime elite if the theocracy falls?
Terry: as you may know from my blogs I am from Iran and i like to answer your question.
there are around 150,000 to 175,000 RG and around 700,000 military personnel, are they loyal to the government? the answer is both yes and no. there is a huge break in the ranks of RG as some saying theri duties are to defend the country only and some saying theri duties are to defend the ideaology. in the past few month number of RG generals alonf with highly decorated military people defected to Turkey. so it is both way. as what happens to the elite, bunch of f….ing coward get ready to go to syria…
bbc says 125,000 RG ( probably not counting Basij ) and CFR says 350,000 regular army.
I called it then, and I called it now…Until we (i.e.,) the US take a more pro-active and yes, deadlier stand against the Mullahs..we are looking at the regime continuing to limp down this road for at least the next 10 years or so.
This was posted a little over a year ago: Still stand by it:
http://www.practicalstate.com/2010/06/09/iran-and-9mm-solution-ya-say-you-want-a-revolution/
Cheers
The part of this article that impressed me the most is “In short, the people have lost their fear. The regime may very well arrest them, beat them, torture them, and kill them, but it is getting more and more difficult to control them.” This means some of them are willing to sacrifice all for the collective benefit. No tyrant can survive this level of popular determination. Bullies dominate, until they are confronted, and then, they back off, because that’s their only option.
About Obama’s mindless persistence on his extended hand approach, curiously, the Iranian regime itself is saving the US policy makers from their own folly: Rarely can one celebrate for the clenched fist on the other side!
This whole thing reminds me of 1994, when the existence of the Internet hit the national conscience and the front page of Times magazine at the same time, while the seminal work had started more than 20 years earlier, in obscurity. We are good at being surprised when we do not need to, aren’t we? Thank you, Mr. Ledeen, for keeping your antennae up, and sharing your analysis!
The Revolt Against the Supreme Leader Begins…
Good news. I pray that it is really happening.
Sean
“Aria, an amazing 58% of Tehran residents suffer from depression, and the chief of police there announced that nearly half a million are addicted to drugs, while unemployment, which is particularly severe among young people and college graduates, is now at 14%.”
Awww, I’m all broken up that the Iranians are depressed. Now they can play victims and say how horrible the mullahs are treating them. We must remember that the mullahs could not stay in power unless they had the support of the majority of the people. Please don’t bore me with “They are living in an opressive regime that is keeping them opressed against their will.” Bunk. The Iranian people didn’t seem to have any troubles overthrowing the Shah when he didn’t suit them anymore, why can’t they just revolt and overthrow the mullahs? Are they scared of being killed? Well, the Shah wasn’t shy about killing his enemies and they managed to stand up to him. No, if the Iranians really, really, want their freedom, they are going to have to work for it, and maybe even die for it. But freedom doesn’t come cheap and it certainly isn’t free. You need to nurture it, fight for it, and always protect and defend it. Perhaps some people here in the United States should remember that.
The Shah was not willing to stoop to the level of barbarism that the Mullahs have. Also remember that Carter was working to push him out, this regime would be dead meat if Russia and China had similarly stopped their support. Still, he would not have lasted more than a decade or two. Yes, there were many who in their rush to get rid of one tyrant accepted a theocracy but it seems that theocracy slowly morphed into the current thugocracy. Khamenei is no Khomeini and the IRGC has been continuously sliding into total corruption mostly because of the Benjamins. While not a great constitution what constitution they had has been thrown out the window. Finally it took a coup by Ahmadinejad, the IRGC, and Khamenei to finally break the camel’s back. The strikes are highly significant in my opinion; I really believe this is the beginning of the end.
Ah, but the Shah was shy about killing his enemies, that’s the thing. If he had done a full Stalin on the student protesters, the Mullahs would likely never have prevailed. He was too nice for the Middle East.
The observation about the timing of the attack is very much on point. I’m reminded of the day of Matthias Rust’s landing in Red Square. If memory is correct, it was the day celebrating the “successes” of the CCCP air/space defense systems. The “party”ing may have enabled his safe penetration and landing. Off topic: Is there a “nomenklatura-in-exile” able and willing to step up and administer Iran in the event of the resignation or removal of the present system? How do literacy and technical educational levels in Iran today compare to the levels at the end of the 1970′s? Hope for massive change peacefully. GBUSA
We’ve been hearing this “the Iranian regime is about to fall” talk for years now.
Tell you what…wake us when it happens.
see my comment at No.15
how could anyone expect the current occupier in the white house to support the iranian people in this matter? after all the eventual goal for the party of occupiers in charge is a sharia state.that is if they can get away with it. the truest form of “power to the people” is the ballot box. as long as the ballot box can be accessed without needing to run a gauntlet of black panther poll watchers that is.
I have always enjoyed reading your articles about the imminent downfall of the Iranian regime and I am looking forward to continuing to do so.
If this is happening, where is the support from our government? Oh yea, Obama is trying the new strategy of engaging the regime. My bad.
I had a haircut today from a woman originally from Mashad. Her family is in Iran. She had some funny opinions on why the bazaar merchants are on strike, but she expressed a general distaste for the regime. When I asked her if Khameini had a special tax on all purchases in Iran that went into his pocket, she said ‘yes’ and described how much the religious leaders make off all the pilgrims to Mashad.
It would seem that someone has translated Atlas Shrugged to Farsi.
The US will leave no stone unturned to put down the mobs who dare challenge the dictators in Iran that parade as religious!~
Yes we can, Harlod Hill Obama, will not sleep until the Khomainiac and his side kick Achmatjihad are once again secure and back to murdering homos and stoning half buried women and honor killing is secure!
I do not put it passed the Executive Branch to send in the marines to reopen the bazaar…You think I’m wrong…but it is not me who can not see the reality of our policy in Iran for the last 31 years…including the primary goal of keeping Iran/Iraq oil exports to a minimum.
The mullahocracy is falling apart?
To borrow a phrase, Faster, Please!
yes, wanderer, they are in a bad patch, those mullahs. i’m not saying their collapse is just around the corner–those things depend on events that generally can’t be foreseen. i’m just saying that if there were any real Western leaders this side of Silvio Berlusconi, the regime could be brought down quickly. maybe it will come down without any help from the West. i sure hope so, because i still don’t see any signs of action from our “leaders.”
Indeed, the current occupant of the Oval Office seems to be very good at bowing, but not nearly so good at the real hard work of foreign policy.
Obama is once again going to look the fool when the Iranian people eventually take the mullahs out. He is just so far out of his depth of water in international affairs it’s sad. He had a gigantic opportunity in June 09 and just flat couldn’t grasp the signifigance of it. Just not that bright, when you get right down to it.
He’s also woefully inexperienced in jobs where one has to, you know, make a definitive decision rather than voting “present.”
Someone warned us that the Presidency isn’t a good place for on-the-job training… wonder how Mr. Biden feels about that now.
They are waiting for events to develop so they can evaluate them further, form a study group to make some recommendations, issue a statement and then repeat…
I have long said about the “rat lines” from Iran into Iraq with the EFPs that the US needs to reverse those lines. It may be that we have done just that but not in enough numbers just yet.
If we can get enough weapons/ammo into Irananian dissidents’ hands the mullahs will not stand.
Nice to see someone talking my language. The Greens need guns and explosives to kill the mullahs, the basji and the RG. It is long past time to make this a fair fight. My bet is that less than 5000 FAL’s would get the job done.
I never understood why Bush didn’t deal with Iran directly for supplying the EFP’s that killed our troops and thousands of Iraqis. There should have been some direct actions against the suppliers who must have been connected to Quds force or the RG. There needed to be a message sent that if you kill an American soldier or contribute to his death there is no refuge.
I couldn’t agree more on both counts. We’ve literally let the Iranian mafiosi get away with murder, and we could likely speed up their fall with a bit of materiel support. Why exactly mystifies me. It’s not like Bush had to worry about popularity in the last 3 years of his presidency. And so what if the Iranians found out about it? What’re they going to do? They’re already fighting a covert war against us. If they thought they could survive open war they’d a’done it already. All that would happen is that some Europeans would hate us…oh wait they already do. I just don’t see a downside here. Even if some in Iran didn’t want to be serving the ‘Great Satan,’ they can look to Afghanistan in the 80s & 90s for inspiration; they took our weapons and then turned around and supported Al Qaeda. Just ’cause you take a rifle or rocket launcher from Uncle Sam doesn’t mean you’re his pawn forever.
Oh well, I suppose it’ll be more legitimate if they do it on their own. But it’s bound to be a lot bloodier if they’re ill armed. I think the Mullahs/Republican Guard have demonstrated adequately that they have no respect for human life, not even the lives of their loyal supporters. And then they wonder why they’re teetering.
No daylight love making? Why, Dr. Ledeen? Does the regime consider the practice shameful? Fit only for the darkness of the night? What does Sharia law say about this? Or is this s new law from the Prophet’s viceroy on earth?
from the viceroy.
Does this law mean that Iranians can do it in the street at night but not in their beds at sunrise? If they can do it openly before God in paradise-I’m talking about wild sex with multiple partners-why not under the sun here on earth, God’s symbol in this world? Then again the moon, not the sun, is symbolic of God in Islam. Maybe that explains it. Only sex by moonlight is permitted in Iran because Allah is the moon god of Islam. On this law alone-the dirty old man who rules Iran and wants to be in everyone’s bed-deserves to be toppled and fall.
something has to give
WHEN SO MANY ARE DEPRESSED BECAUSE OF OPPRESSION, UNEMPLOYMENT THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY FEEL THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE AND THEIR LEVEL OF FEAR WILL DROP LETTING THEM ENGAGE IN REAL REBELLION. THE REGIME’S CRACKDOWN ON UNIMPORTANT PRACTICES REVEALS AN EXTREME DESPERATION AT THEIR LOSS OF CONTROL.
as I read your comment I thought that might apply to the USA as well
Good one.
God bless the Iranian people. Keep them safe and free from harm and bless them with Freedom. May they live free and have all rights for a happy life.
Samizdat, Exactly! US needs to return to the [perhaps legendary but has been repeated often] Reagan response to Libyan Migs bothering the Sixth Fleet in international waters. He supposedly said that if US forces were fired upon that US planes could chase the Libyans “clear back to the hangar.” Too bad he didn’t follow this pattern in Lebanon when the Marines were being shelled at the airport. Do you think there is a “nomenklatura” or some sort of underground that is well enough organized to step up and administer Iran if a revolution can be achieved? Would hate to see a rerun of 1917 Russia, a popular uprising soon stolen by some other totalitarian group. Off topic: anyone have a w.a.g. on the number of missiles the Chinese have delivered to Iran since 1980? GBUSA
Michael: How about a little love for my 9MM theory espoused over a year ago…
It could da been a contenda! And would still work it tried today!
Cheers
they’ve got plenty of guns. not to worry, ER.
Hi Michael,
Please remove my last comment – I accidentally hit the ‘enter’ key, and there is no going back.
This notoriously inaccurate (though fun!) web site seems to think that the Iranians plan on attacking US troops in Iraq in a new and dramatic way. Supposedly this is because the US is going to succeed in building a anti-Iranian governing coalition in Iraq.
http://www.debka.com/article/8920/
Even if none of this is true. I wonder. Is Iran counting on taking over Iraq at some point in order to survive? If Iraq becomes a normal/stable anti-Iranian country in the region, is that the perceived death knell of the Iranian regime? Would Iran see that as enough of a threat to activate militias at t his point to prevent it from happening?
a free iraq is very threatening to the mullahs. the militias are already trained and armed.
Damn I hate being out of the loop for even a week. Excellent article Dr. Will we ever see the truth in our Govts actions regarding this vibrant and seemingly ready Iranian population to shred its oppression? All the while we in the USA are seemingly inviting the same shrouds those people are ripping from themselves. Damned curious times, these.
Are they gone yet?
I am hardly an expert on Iran but if one side, no matter how small, has all the guns and no inhibitions about using them doesn’t argue against regime change?
I read that the Iranians agree that they are NOT strong enough to get rid of their tyrants and that they hope for an EXTERNAL Force to eliminate them, read the US. Even when Obama is out the US public is unlikely support another war no matter how justified. In short there is no way the mullahs are going to lose power.
I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I do not see how the mullahs can be overthrown when they have all the money and guns.
ask comrade gorbachev, Virginia Bob; he’ll tell you how it works, heh. he had all the guns, too…
Cheers for the write up