The opposition Green Movement in Iran had been trying for days to get official permission for a demonstration, but it was denied. As a witty tweeter noted, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri took care of that by dying. The demonstrations in Qom are abundantly documented. Look at this video, for example; it is entitled to your careful attention.
We see several important things:
–first, the dimensions of the protest (enormous). There have been monster demonstrations against the regime for several months now, and they are not likely to stop;
–second, the discipline of the crowd. This is extremely rare, especially when you consider that Iran is now in the annual period of mourning, and passions are very high. Add to that the political dimension (Montazeri was a symbol of resistance to the regime), and the fact that there were regime provocateurs in the demonstration, trying to disrupt their disciplined chants. This is an organized movement, not a group of wild-eyed protestors;
–third, the regime is frightened. The supreme leader and his acolytes (Ahmadinejad is less and less visible. Somebody should tell Diane Sawyer) are groping for a way to survive. They seem not to realize that they died before Montazeri, and that nobody cares to mourn them. And so they stagger about, and find the worst possible gesture. As the indispensable Banafsheh tells us:
On Monday evening Saeed Montazeri announced that the Montazeri family was forced to cancel the post-funeral sacrament as the Islamic regime’s forces had invaded the A’zam mosque where the observance was to be held. Saeed Montazeri also added that the Montazeri residence has now been surrounded by various revolutionary guards, members of the Basij, intelligence agents, members of special force, etc.
It is reminiscent of Gorbachev at his most inept, finding a way to be mean enough to enrage the people, but not tough enough to assert his power, thereby provoking that most dangerous of all mass reactions: contempt for his person and his rule. Basij thugs attacked Green leader Mousavi’s car today, injuring one of his bodyguards, smashing a windshield, but otherwise failed to do any serious damage.
Great news. Keep up the coverage. Seems like things may be very fluid now…
Here’s to a free Persia.
Michael,
Well said. Sure hope the fuze has been lit.
Be well and safe.
I suppose like everyone, I would love to know what’s in the collective conscious of those participants of the Green Movement. Do they want us to act? If so, how?
I’ve heard a lot of suggestions on what we should be doing, some of it quite logical. But what do they expect from us? I saw the one video of them chanting for Obama to take sides. But haven’t heard much more. Any ideas?
the most important thing is for our leaders to denounce the regime and openly call for freedom in Iran. The next big thing, counterintuitively perhaps, is to inform Iranians about events…in Iran. This is especially important when big events are taking place. we need VOA and RFE/RL to do a better job. and we should be helping the farsi language private radio and tv stations in southern california as well.
Thanks for your kind statement about Ayatollah Montazeri. It will take me time to translate Shirin Ebadi’s condolence letter regarding Ayatollah Montazeri, but indeed its moving in the way she acknowledge her shortcomings and others in leaving Montazeri alone for those years he stood lone.
Now I fear this regime ends up doing something TOTALLY STUPID and hurt the opposition people physically. It is shocking and MORE DEGRADING to Ahmadinejad for his total ABSOLUTE STUPIDITY and DISRESPECT for not even issuing a simple one-line condolence statement. This clearly show how much they feared him and hated him, as he watches millions of people in Iran show their respect for a freedom loving individual.
Sorry Mike but I’ve seen glaciers move faster than the Iranian revolution. I think Al Gore, Mr. Global Warming himself, would concur.
It must be killing you that this movement is being totally overlooked by this administration.
Hasnt anyone learned a thing about “democratic” movements within
Islam? Do you really think that the preference of one mullah over another
means anything democratic? This is nothing more than a personnel change in the same dreary script. All that can be done with Islam is let it feed off itself, and prevent it from harming the outside world.
hello everyone.
#5 do they want us act? if you mean as people then yes. as our government then no.
#8 no only it is not killing me or anyone else but what Obama is doing is exactly.
Mr. Ledeen: the worst thing to do now is for our government here to do is to denounce the a…. hole back home.
I am Iranian and I participated in the 1979 revolution . that day knew these bastards were no good.
there is a huge and deepmistrust of the American government back since the Americans deposed the freely democratic government in Iran in 1956.
this is a whole new generation of people who do notknow the Shah/do no remmeber Iran/Iraq war they are highly educated and in fact 60% of university students are women. I just got back from there and I talktomy siter and my mom every day.
the last thing Iranian people now need is direct interference from our government here. and by the way it does not matter weather it is Obama/Bush/Clinton etc.. thei brutal regim would then say:}’ see we told you the Americans are behind it and then they will go after then to the point of no return. the biggest problem we have there is a lack of leadership. usless we have a leadership with clear agenda things are not going to the way of Iranian people. I am 53 years old and I bet with my son who is in the Mariens that by the time I am 55 these dousch..B will be gone. I willupdate tomorrow.
please do, patrio.
Given your history of dubious pronouncements on Iran and other issues, why should anyone take you seriously. You remind me of the bosses nephew by marriage constantly insulated from the outcome of his ineptitude at the office.
[Forgive me; my sympathies are with you, but if we refrain from the snark, then the Mullahs will have won.]
“Ayatollah Montazeri, on the other hand, has now passed into legend, and his power has grown many times over. … He did all this while formally under house arrest in Qom. Now freed from that contemptible captivity, he is free to exert his leadership with even greater energy.”
Obi-wan Montazeri?
Bob: exactly. there is a great perturbation in The Force.
It’s one thing for Obama not to “meddle”, it’s quite another, and far more despicable, for the MSM to ignore the massive protests. I wonder if the rest of the world’s media are reporting this?
So Alice, are you saying this didn’t happen just because Michael reported it? No funeral or no protests?
Can Mr. Ledeen enlighten us on one thing?
Can Mr. Ledeen name anytime or anyplace in the 1500 year
history of Islam where anything resembling democracy has existed? Anything like a open society? Ever? Tell us what
happened to Beirut “The Paris of the Levant” when Islam got the upper hand.
Isnt the Islamic history cycle always Authoritarian Govt (monarchy,military etc)-Religious Reform-Chaos-Authoritarian Govt-Religious Reform- etc
Now of course 1500 years of the same cycle may just be a fluke..or perhaps there is something within Islam that makes this almost genetically determined.
I am reminded of Germaine Greer jetting to Teheran in 1980 to
lead the way for Feminist Liberation in the “new” open society of Iran that she was there to cheer on.
Isnt playing at
hunter: good thoughts, surely. however life is full of surprises. iran certainly had a democratic system–by the standards of the day–after the 1906 revolution for a while. and today it has most if not all of the prerequisites for a free society. for millenia, there was very little freedom anywhere on earth, but then, relatively recently, it developed. change is fundamental to our existence…
It took a month to receive a reply, but Farah Pahlavi sent this, amongst other stuff: “In the end, light will prevail over darkness.”
As long as the destination is ahead of us, we know where we are headed.
Michael is perfectly right (10). A direct interference may prove more damaging if not lethal to the movement. As he pointed out, information should be made available to all Iranians from any walk of life and anywhere in the country.
Although I leave in the UK, I still listen to radio programs which manage to capture the news some times before Twitter. On days of upheaval the radio programs manage to contact people in the hot zones of demos and get full feed back. On one occasion, a civil servant called the program and gave feed back on the situation on the street in the vicinity and thanked the radio for information via their PCs. According to him, there were around 100 of them all trying to leave their offices to no avail as the basij had their building doors locked from outside. Eventually people from outside managed to set them free. While also on Twitter, this news came out 10 minutes after.
In Iran my father used to listen to radio Israel everyday and I believe if not all at least 95% of households do have access to radio. This would not naturally be the case for Satellites or PCs.
Currently epersian radio is trying to sustain itself and also upgrade its transmitters for a better coverage into Iran and all the money reaching them so far has been through donations and not a penny from the government(s).
Michael, thank you and looking forward to your next piece.
Do you think Ayatollah Sane’i can replace Montazeri in being the spiritual leader of the freedom movement given his more conservative standing among the public?
@Harry
How many years did the American revolution take? The French? The civil rights movement in South Africa. Indian independence? These are seminal events that do not move on a 24/7 cable news cycle. If you cannot see the significance of these protest against the repressive regime and the progress they have made since June then you are really looking at a few trees despite the forest in front of you.
RE: ehunter: I think you could take your argument and say that between the moment Emperor Constantine descended from the mountain and created the Holy Roman Empire, up to July 4th, 1776 (I’m being dramatic, yes, but you get my point), Christianity never really created a truly “free” and “open” democratic country. And that’s a length of time twice as long as your “since the 1500s” rationale. Things do change, believe it or not.
RE: Michael’s “Perhaps even the feckless “diplomats” in our own capital will move beyond the pro forma expressions of sadness to do what he wished: support freedom for his oppressed people.”
I’m genuinely curious to hear when Grand Ayatollah Montazeri publicly expressed a desire for tangible American involvement in overthrowing the current Iranian regime. That seems insane to me, and also seems to contradict what the vast majority of Greens in Iran have been saying since the pre-election protests, over twitter and facebook and in youtube videos, which was that the last thing they needed was for the American government to publicly support their movement.
Gabriel: what do you think the demonstrators meant when they chanted “Obama, Obama, are you with us or with them?”
Re: Montazeri, please be patient, a lot more will eventually come out.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126161465189603571.html
The Iranian people don’t even recognize their own government as legitimate, and John Kerry, I was for it before I was against, want to go to Tehran so that the illegitimate government can use him as a puppet to tell their people, see American don’t give a heck what your aspirations are.
ssseeee
I just watched this interview with Ahmadinejad. Where was this interview? It was conducted right next to Hafez grave in Shiraz!!!! I swear that Hafez is rolling over in his grave watching this pathetic man keep answering question with 18-wheeler bullshit. You could see Ahmadinejad and his gang are at the end of the line by just watching his response, which is basically NO RESPONSE. I think when people get to this point, it is a clear case they have lost directions, where they are so scared of moving along any path they can see. So they decide to run idle, thinking this might be the best response!!!
That clearly shows confidence and knowing what the hell they are doing is out the window!
By AVOIDING and keep AVOIDING in responding to serious questions, he is clearly showing the coup d’état team in charge are totally out of breath and oxygen.
Here is the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaHh4SQbhmI
Indeed Iran had a new Ashura this year. Just read that nephew of Mousavi was shot dead in Tehran. This is clearly an assassination and warning shot to Mousavi. The following two links has powerful pictures of this day posted by BBC Farsi. What is powerful is that you don’t see just young people, but people of ALL ages are indeed so brave to fight for their freedom. God protect them all. Here is the two links:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/12/091227_ad-10dey.shtml
http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/12/091227_ag_ashura_demo_pics.shtml
Is this real?
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/…-iranian-armed
“Can Mr. Ledeen name anytime or anyplace in the 1500 year history of Islam where anything resembling democracy has existed?”
Iraq. Also, this idea that active American involvement will endanger the dissidents is absurd. From The Wall Street Journal last month: “Iranian human-rights groups say that since the government crackdown began in late June, at least 400 demonstrators have been killed while another 56 are unaccounted, which is several times higher than the official figures. The regime has established a chain of unofficial, makeshift prisons to deal with the protesters, where torture and rape are said to be commonplace. In Tehran alone, 37 young Iranian men and women are reported to have been raped by their captors.”
How much more in danger can they get? We aren’t talking about the CIA arming the protestors, we are just asking for the Obama administration to acknowledge what’s going on and help get the news out to all Iranians. Call for the release of jailed dissidents, name victims, and give examples of the atrocities being committed by the regime. When Reagan gave his “Evil Empire” speech it was relayed throughout the Gulags; in some cases tapped in code from wall to wall. Natan Sharansky recounts how such support uplifted, reinforced, and inspired those who would later overthrow that empire. Instead from Obama’s administration we get only silence, like when Biden said after the fraudulent elections: “we’re going to withhold comment… I mean we’re just waiting to see.” Then we went on to engage the regime in further worthless negotiations.
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/12/iran-is-on-fire-and-no-one-in.html
It’s getting worse. Mr. Ledeen, What are your folks/contacts telling you?
v/r
ER White
What can the average American citizen do to help the cause of freedom in Iran?
write an angry letter to your reps, to the White House, and to Ms Hillary.
@MikeD I agree with Michael Leeden that you can write to your reps in Congress to make the point about the distress of the Iranian people. You can also pray for them, and pray for the overthrow of this evil regime now rather than later.
@Rancher. Iraq is a good example of democracy or at least quasi-democracy in the region. I would also add Turkey as an Islamic nation that has some form of democracy. I would also add Afghanistan pre-Taliban and post-Taliban. They used to be relatively free in Karachi. Another quasi-democratic Islamic nation is Pakistan.
Also @Rancher, I agree with you that what is needed right at this moment is not military intervention but strong talk. I find that this is something that is missing. So far the response from the White House has been extremely weak. To date few European nations have been providing a voice of protest, of note has been both Angela Merkel and Sarkozy. The rest, especially Gordon Brown have been silent.
I believe that we need to voice our objection to the human rights abuses. My own personal contribution is to wear green as much as possible so that I stand with the Iranian people during this life and death struggle. It is a small contribution, yet by wearing green I keep the Iranians in my mind… praying for them, praying for their safety.
@Gabriel, I think you miss the point of what the Iranian people want, let alone the desires of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The people of Iran have asked the question of Obama “Obama are you for us or against us”. They are not asking for military intervention. What they truly desire is a strong voice of condemnation for this illegitimate regime. What they also want is that the USA refuse to negotiate with the illegitimate regime. So long as there are negotiations the people will be crushed by the illegitimate regime of Khamenei and Ahmanutjob.
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