You may have noticed a lull in reportage from Iran; that is because the situation is unusually explosive, and there is a great deal going on beneath the surface, all of it very damaging to the stability and legitimacy of the regime. Thus there is a clampdown on “news.” I don’t know if foreign correspondents are aware of these developments or not, but they are very significant.
One is that the tempo of the internal battle against the regime has picked up, and not just in street demonstrations and chants of “Death to the Dictator.” On the night of November 10-11 there was a very bloody gun fight in the area of Karaj, in which several senior Revolutionary Guards officers were killed or wounded. No announcement was made, although you can see one of its effects in a Reuters story:
“Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards force has replaced its commander for the greater Tehran area, its website said…The “Sepah News” website did not give a reason for the appointment of Hossein Hamedani as new Revolutionary Guards commander in Tehran, replacing Abdullah Araghi.”
I believe that General Araghi was either killed or seriously injured in the Karaj shootout. This is not the only high-level replacement in the IRGC in the past few days, nor is it likely to be the last.
There were equally disruptive political events in the Majlis (Parliament). In a closed-door, unreported session of the Budget Committee, Ahmadinejad became so angry that he ripped up his notes and stormed out of the room in the early hours of the morning of the 11th. He was upset about three things:
–Resistance to the oil/natural gas deal with Turkey;
–The fact that some members of the Majlis had found out about the details of the deal;
–A report on the parlous state of the national economy, and the true extent of the IRGC’s role in it.
I noted some days ago that the deal struck on the occasion of Turkish leader Erdogan’s visit to Tehran involved a spectacular discount–50%–on the price of Iranian natural gas to the Turks. These details had not been made public. But, somehow, a copy of the actual agreement reached committee members, who were infuriated, and they threatened to vote against it. Why, they asked, were the Turks entitled to buy huge quantities of Iranian gas at an outrageous discount, and then sell as much of it as they wished on the market? Was this not tantamount to taking money from the Iranian people and just transferring it to the Turks?
Ahmadinejad was furious and stormed out of the meeting. On the next day, the head of the energy commission, Hamid Reza Katuzian, a young deputy from Tehran who has expressed unhappiness with Ahmadinezhad in the past, went public with an interview in IRNA and other news agencies. He said that Parliament might cancel the agreement, which would be a serious challenge to the authority of the supreme leader and the president. This follows earlier clashes with Ahmadinezhad over energy questions, one of which saw the president deliver a blow( to the face) of the head of the national petroleum company, who balked at signing the agreement. The poor man was fired, of course; his only satisfaction was the spectacle of Ahmadinezhad with his hand heavily bandaged.
Another scandal emerged in the form of a secret report from the former head of the Central Bank, with details on the last fiscal year (which ended in March, 2008). The report contained the predictable details of the ruin of the economy, but it also described the amazing economic power of the Revolutionary Guards. According to the report, direct and indirect RG activities–according to the report, there more than seven hundred RG companies OUTSIDE the country, in addition to their onshore businesses and front companies–account for more than fifty per cent of the nation’s business, ranging from oil and gas to ports and airports, thousands of hectares of fruit-producing land, real estate, construction (both private and public works) and housing. In all probability, the RG has increased its share of the market in the last 8 months. The actual figure may be closer to sixty per cent.
One participant reported Larijani (the “speaker” of the Majlis) saying “if this gets out, it’s the end of the system.”
Finally, many deputies are concerned about the impact of the cutback in subsidies on staples like bread, rice and milk, and of course on gasoline, much of which must be imported (and which are targeted for future sanctions in U.S. legislation that has passed the House of Representatives and is pending in the Senate). In the closed meeting Ahmadinejad was asked if the cutbacks could be delayed until the spring, but the measures are already being applies.
In short, the people are systematically screwed, the RG are making lots of money (much of which goes outside the country to support the terrorists), and it’s not hard to understand why internal violence, especially against the Guards, is on the rise.
And yet, we, who stand up to the Sons of Allah, are demonized by those known for filthy lucre.
They truly have the blinkers on, for how else would they get away with fighting one standard for all, especially when it comes to man’s inhumanity to man, via dividing the world into the dar al Harb & dar al Islam.
There goes the RG’s legitimacy. I remember the bitter complaints of Iranians against the Shah’s family’s domination of business.
Michael,
The parliament’s name is “Majlis” not “Basij” which is the regime’s paramilitary militia.
Could someone please photoshop Ledeen’s shirt & tie?
I am SO with you.
Mr. ledeen,
Sadly; what you are witnessing is the awakening and fury of the people.
I would like to point out that just before the 13 aban protests, we published an audio message to the Iranian people urging them to fight back when attacked and for them to defend their lives. We encouraged people to change their strategies & tactics if they want to win this struggle.
We are glad to see the message is getting through.
The first part of the message is in Farsi; the second in English.
The audio message:
http://iran115.org/aban
We also have posted an analysis of the protests after they happened.
For years; we have helped develop a grassroots bottom-up resistance which is broken into cells and networked by the political ideaology of democracy.
We focus on military, social, and political issues in each and every community.
Slowly but surely; time will tell the story.
Long live a democratic nation of Iran.
jamshid, why do you say “sadly”? Sounds like you’ve been working for this, no?
Mr. Ledeen-
I say sadly because nobody wants violence, chaos and instability. I think all of us would love to just go about our daily lives.
What we want is a secular democratic nation that stands shoulder to shoulder with other countries on the world stage. What we want is an environment where our children dream of their future; and not about how to escape to the west. What we want: is jobs, education, business oppotunities, rule of law, less coruption, freedom, democracy, & human rights.
Nobody wants civil war or conflict. The regime is forcing this confrontation.
Many just wanted modifications to the current constitution to insure proper checks & balances.
As you know, Iran is a rentier state; the government could function with only a fraction of the population. If we let them; they will torture, rape, or kill anybody who desires freedom.
In my opinion, this will be a very intense and difficult struggle.
But, I am certain we will win.
And yes. thank you.
We have tried hard to make a difference.
Sometimes, being a revolutionary working in secret is a thankless job. When I was in Iran; we used to joke the only way to get credentials and recognition from western media as a freedom fighter in Iran was to get caught and arrested.
When we have results; when Iran is a true democracy which respects human rights and international law; then we will feel like we have accomplished something or made a contribution toward the objective.
The heroes are those brave soldiers of freedom risking their lives on the streets.
To help them understand what they are fighting for, We have written a manifesto & draft constitution to serve as a blueprint for democracy.
It also makes clear our political ideology. http://iran115.org/manifesto
All comments and feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Mr. Ledeen, I am currently in DC. Would love to sit down some day in person and chat. I have many videos, pictures, and stories about my work in Iran.
Jamshid
send me an email after thanksgiving and i’ll offer hot tea and biscotti.
The downside to the RG’s kleptocracy is that it is one more incentive for them to hold on to power. Where are they going to retire to with their lucre, Caracas?
This would not be the first time for information blackouts to coincide with paramount events.
The regime will fragment under pressure, simply because tyrannies are based on interlocked relations of fear instead of a fabric of trust. This renders the whole construct brittle whenever any sign of weakness emerges, as every conspirator hopes to save his skin by vanishing before justice catches up with him.
Freezing the regime’s foreign assets would make a lot of sense right now, because it would put deadly pressure on the regime without firing a shot.
The brave soldiers of freedom confronting the RG deserve our support. If the regime crumbles before materializing its nuclear ambitions, it will be to their credit.
Just a simple google search on Iran115 will quickly show/tell you about this scam artist. He’s the biggest joke outside of Iran.