Showdown at the Tehran Corral
Showdown?
On Saturday, as reported on Mousavi’s Facebook page, “A new era of censorship has started following the statement by National Security Council (headed by Ahmadinejad) which banned all the domestic press from reflecting any news regarding Mousavi, Karoubi or the disputed presidential election! This has been confirmed by three reformist newspapers.”
In good Soviet fashion, Mousavi and Karroubi have been declared “non-persons.” And the “elections,” which really were non-elections all along, have been put on the Iranian Index. Within minutes, millions of bloggers, tweeters and facebookers had the news, and were accordingly talking about Mousavi, Karroubi and the elections.
This is the latest move by a regime that fears time is working against it, and, at least for the moment, the big showdown is now scheduled for next Friday, “Quds (Jerusalem) Day,” on which a monster demonstration has been called by the followers of the two non-persons to protest you-know-what.
Friday is always an important day for public political rhetoric, and yesterday Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a very tough sermon at Friday Prayers in Tehran. It was the mirror image of Mousavi’s warning of increased violence on the part of the regime. Khamenei warned that the only legitimate topic for demonstrations on that date will be Palestine. So if anybody shows signs of caring about Iran, the regime thugs will crack down on them.
Last night the chants from the rooftops of Tehran were louder than ever. And so the regime has decided to go all-out to assert its power. They have already arrested some of the top aides to Mousavi and Karroubi, and several leading bloggers sympathetic to the opposition. A story during the week quoted Rafsanjani as saying that an arrest order for Karroubi–who has been vigorously demanding full disclosure of the horrendous treatment of demonstrators in the regime’s prisons–has already been issued and can be carried out any time. However, most good analysts do not believe that the regime would arrest the dissident leaders until Ahmadinezhad has made his annual pilgrimage to the United Nations, early next week. Most likely, the showdown will take place on Quds Day, next Friday.
That said, the Iranian universe is in great turmoil, and as Yoda used to say, there are great perturbations in the Force. Most anything can happen.
The week is full of potentially major events. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s birthday is this week, and he has long said that he would like to have one or two atomic bombs as his present. Some are saying that the present is on schedule, but such stories have been told for more than two years.
Faced with an impending dhowdown, the dissidents are debating what to do. They do not believe they can win a gunfight, and the leaders are adamantly opposed to any violent confrontation. At the moment, the consensus is to try to work on both the domestic and international fronts, asking the West for at least moral support against the regime, trying to subvert the security forces in the runup to Quds Day (stories continue to circulate about arrests of leading Revolutionary Guards officers, although none has been convincingly confirmed to my knowledge), and to get the maximum possible number of people in the streets for the protests.
The dissidents also believe that they have the overwhelming support of Iranian women, and it would not surprise me to see Mousavi’s wife play an active public role in the coming days.
If the regime fails to break the demonstrations, most anything can happen. If the demonstrations are effectively shut down, and the leaders are arrested, the standing orders from Mousavi/Karroubi to their followers is to launch a general strike and to stage non-stop demonstrations until…nobody knows. Everyone in the country knows this, and so in its way the arrests would launch the ultimate public opinion poll.
From the Corridors of Appeasement in the West, there are only whistles as the darkness intensifies. Yes, we will be happy to negotiate with the Tehran butchers, even though they tell us in every possible way that our one topic of “dialogue”–the Iranian bomb–is off the table. And there is even a story in the Iranian press today claiming that the United States has offered to swap more than a dozen Airbuses in exchange for the frozen Iranian assets that have been gathering interest in American banks ever since the Revolution.
All of which convinces the mullahs that they can do anything they wish to their people, and anything they wish on the nuclear front. Hell, nobody in this administration seems to want to talk about the cache of weapons and explosives of Iranian manufacture found in Herat Province (just across the border from the Islamic Republic), quite obviously placed there for the purpose of killing Americans and American allies. But the Pentagon spokesman shies away from saying anything mean about the regime: we don’t really know whether the regime approved this, and really this murder of Americans by Iranian proxies doesn’t amount to very much.
These spokesthings should spend half an hour with some military parents, and I’m happy to arrange the introductions.
This of course has been the real issue all along, the issue nobody wants to talk about: they’re killing us. They’ve been doing it for more than thirty years. And still we only want to talk.
This is the mental gyration that makes us accomplices to evil. You can read the whole story in just a couple of weeks.
ATTENTION MR LEDEEN, CLASSIFIED–mark my words
Mr Ledeen missed this one!!
On September 19th or 20th 2009(pending) close to 5:00 am-6 am, Israeli warplanes will be over skies in Tehran. -no Iranian radar detection
No Action or bombing will be take place. One-two weeks later, “anonymous” sources will reveal so.
This will serve two purposes:
a. training and preparedness of IDF Airforce
b. shake Iranian leadership, so they will isolate themselves and out of public view. Hence opposition will grow bolder.
Who has been informed:
a. Obama Admin. – hence quick decision on Friday to accept talks with Iran- to say to Middle East countries later “we didn’t have nothing to do with it
b. Vladimir & Medvedev were briefed during Netanyahu’s visit. Russians were asked if they operate any radars or anti-air batteries to turn them off.
c. Israeli warplanes will take off from Georgia (hence Netanyahu-Russia visit) or Azerbaijan (unlikely)
Michael, it is times like these that I fervently wish for more governments-in-exile. Given the nonsense that permeates the Oval Office, Capitol Hill, Foggy Bottom, Langley, and where ever else the ooze has spread, it makes a difference to the average person to have a regime that pays more than lip service to the best interests of the country.
Plus, when the subject is raised about holding companies which do business with Iranian, or Libyan, or Venezuelan, or Russian,
or Chinese companies that have ties to the current regimes, silence is the answer.
Needless to say, the credibility of these muckety mucks in government are about the same
as the MSM. In other words, they are in a hole, and they are still digging.
“Great perturbations in the Force there are…”
With echoes of a similar phenomenon – over a million – in Washington DC.
… they’re killing us — they’ve been doing it for more than thirty years — still we only want to talk — and this mental gyration makes us accomplices to evil.
It has long long long been the irrefutable truth that America’s very worst enemies are domestic and that most of that gang are and/or do the bidding of Foggy Bottom’s execrable bastard-offspring of the Soviet agents, Alger Hiss et al brahmanas. And/or comprise and/or do the bidding of the vast criminal enterprises AKA the “Democratic” potty. (And that absolutely owns, operates, controls and corrupts the machinery of “America’s” feral government)
But since the time of the traitor, Carter and of the traitors, recidivists, liars, looters, thieves, mass-murderers and co-serial rapists that comprised the Cli’ton “administration” — and now of the national-socialistic fascist, 0zero thugokkkracy, Frau Pelosi and Herr Reid, included — our entire feral gummint — only individual bureaucrats excluded — is now the enemy.
Please, Dear Lord, that 2010 sees the backs of as many “career” politicians as we can meanwhile get skids under — and that 0zero’s classical, Clinical NarciSSism (ably assisted by his “spouse’s” envy, hatred and rage) sees the same skids (perhaps we’ll call them the “Anthony ‘Van’ Johnson Skids”) used again and again and again throughout 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
The international community should have intervened. What a disgrace. Islamic regimes… How I hate them so…
Justice would entail the following – once Israel takes out the Iranian WMD’s, it deals with the Iranian hierarchy, and metes out punishment to those in the US regime which aided and abetted the Iranian mullahs.
After all, what is good for the Islamic goose is good for the leftist, enabling gander….
I think Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi will be the next targets! Because the Iranian supreme Council for National Security has discussed the arrest of the two reformers, Mr Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mr Mehdi Karroubi where the supreme Leader Khamenei has given an order for the arrest of Mr Karroubi.
If Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi’s supporters took to the streets again for protest and demonstrations! I think, Khamenei and his thugs won’t hesitate to beat and kill thousands of Iranians. Certainly this time will impose a very strict repression on protest and the street demonstrations. No doubt, he will do everything to squelch opposition and to break resistance.
It is very necessary, politicians and pundits and journalists in Western countries to open their eyes to realities, and that west must help the Iranians, by all means.
Unfortunately, it’s looking like the green revolution is dying a slow death.
Our Military is restricted by its civilian masters (As it was designed and should always be) but, unfortunaltely for us, the civilian leadership is inept.
Our next chance to change that is 2012… By then Iran will have the Bomb. UNLESS…
Israel can’t stop Iran building the bomb..Iran is too big and too hard a target. What Israel can and should do is create a crisis that forces the US to act. That it can do.
Thank you for not letting go of this, Michael. My heart feels a sickening, thudding feeling reading this though. So much anguish, death, evil and cruelty and the voices of freedom are snuffed out before freedom can ring.
Sadness that builds from the belly and works itself up into the heart where it almost suffocates.
Just.
Sadness.
What’s great about being an accomplice is the litany of excuses you can generate while facilitating a lie. The msm has done a splendid job of infusing us with substantial alibis for nearly all of the Mullocracy’s elicit activities. I heard a number this weekend, such as “Iranian people voted and it’s like our election, the losers just can’t take it.” Whenever the word election is mentioned, most simple Americans immediately assume two opposing sides with more or less the same interests, democratically seeking the majority. It’s a gross misunderstanding of an incomprehensible existence, our collective ignorance of the principal differences between tyranny and democracy that corrode our empathy, preventing us from asking the right questions. When you only demand a trailer to judge the big picture, your evaluations become unreliable, inapplicable even counterproductive.
So what’s the alternative? We go to war with Iran? On what grounds? How many troops would we need and where do we get them from?
In international relations there are only really 4 things you can do. You can deal, not deal, attack or threaten to attack. Not dealing doesn’t serve our purpose at all, there are things we want from Iran. I’m not an expert but I would say that military options are off the table at this point given our other commitments and the proximity of US forces in Iraq. The only option that stands a chance of advancing our interests is to talk to them. I find their policies to be disgusting but I feel the same way about Saudi Arabia, Egypt and China.
#3 Ran
I’m on your side, I don’t want health care “reform” or any more government spending. However, comparing our political dispute with Obama to what the Iranian people are going through is obscene. Our rights to free speech and assembly are unquestioned even with a Democrat in the White House. Iranians have been arrested, held without charge, raped and murdered for voicing dissent.
Paul in MI:
There are a number of military options that don’t require large numbers of troops. Iran’s dependence on oil (for income) and gasoline (imported because they don’t have enough refinery capacity) make a blockade feasible. We could also take control of Iran’s coastal oil infrastructure. Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states threatened by Iran would pump more oil to offset the loss of Iranian oil, PROVIDED that they trust us to see it through.
We’re drawing down in Iraq, and don’t have that many troops committed to Afghanistan. An invasion along the lines of Iraq in 2003 is off the table, but with control of the air and sea, much can be accomplished with the forces available.
#15 Jack Okie
Any military action against Iran would require our troops in Iraq to change posture dramatically in order to defend against retaliatory strikes. Camps would have to be abandoned, regular patrols cancelled, basically our whole military presence in Iraq would have to go back onto a war footing. We would need to mass power at the border and keep units mobile in order to protect them against medium range missiles or even artillery close to the border.
Any kind of military action against Iran would require the same kind of response. Even a blockade could prompt them to respond with a barrage of missiles against major US camps.
I’m not saying it can’t be done. I’m just saying that it’s not possible to conduct COIN operations in Iraq and be at war with Iran at the same time.
“These spokesthings should spend half an hour with some military parents, and I’m happy to arrange the introductions”
Michael, we both know that doing that would be entirely outside of their mental universe. Sitting down with military (or police) families would be as inexplicable and unpleasant to them as sitting down with garbage collectors. They would look as awkward as Obama did look having that beer with Sgt. Crowley of the Cambridge PD.
Asia Times is spreading the rumor that Bibi went to Moscow to offer US Technology to the Russians in exchange for the codes to the Iranian SAM’s. There was also talk of Israel switch alliance from the USA to Russia.
This is fallout from the cancellation of the F-22.
If the USAF doesn’t get F-22′s then the IDF won’t either. That means the Air Domination the USA has spent the last 60+ years and Trillions of Dollars acquiring is gone.
The good thing about having Putin as an ally is he doesn’t give a rats arse what the UN thinks, or a bunch of New York nut bags.
If it had been the USA invading Georgia, the Russians would not have looked the other way. That makes them reliable, which the USA isn’t.
Showdown? Of course it will be a memorable day. One DEADLY mistake that Ahmadinejad gang is making —in 2009 with internet around+sattelite dishes++ Iranian people—is they can not manage and lead Iran for many things that takes place in the country.
This fight and struggle is a daily thing and each day passes they’ll notice they are running on empty. So Ghods day is one of those days to come out, but no one should hold their breath for drastic change and new start from that day on.
I was reading the post by ali ardakani that someone suggested Israeli forces would fly over Tehran WITHOUT any arms and simply drop leaflets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If such a thing could happen and half of Tehran COULD VISIBLY and CLEARLY SEE such fighter jets, then this government will PEE in their pants.
This will be the most SHOCKING and EMBARRASSING and TOTAL LOSS for Iranian military. Score would be Iran –3, Israel +5! Yet no one will die on either side and then we will watch how this group of people will melt so fast. However, the challenge is that it must be absolutely visible and clear to Iranian people with naked eyes. Better: people recoding their observations and posting them on Youtube!
I personally remember the first day of Iraqi air attack on Mehrabad airport. That day in the late afternoon two black Iraqi air fighters—they looked truly scary, seeing them that close to earth and having the black color– literally flew ALL AROUND the city at low altitude after they dropped their bombs on Mehrabad airport and seeing the smoke from the airport direction. I was on the 5th floor of an office building in Abbasabad in Tehran. I could see most of Tehran and the airport. There was NOTHING to fight against these two all black fighters in the air. NOTHING!
So if Israel could pull it off, with all propaganda coming out of Tehran about their military sophistication, this move will close the case without killing anyone.
I think such an idea must be explored and looked at acting a needle bursting the balloon this regime has been living in.
#Mr Alireza, the Israeli warplanes several times has penetrated deep into Syrian airspace and attacked some sites.
In October 2003, Israeli warplanes bombed a Palestinian guerrilla base near Damascus.
On September 6, 2007 the Israel Air Force (IAF) carried out an quick air strike inside Syria, where bombed a site in northern Syria in Dier Ezzor province. Reportedly, it was targeting weapons destined for Hezbbllah guerrillas in Lebanon “possibly was an Iranian weapons shipped into Syria”, but the TARGET INDEED IT WAS A NUCLEAR FACILITY has been built with Korean aid. REPORTEDLY, Syrians said “they opened fire on Israeli aircraft and forced them to leave after they DROPPED SOME MUNITIONS in deserted areas. Ditto during summer 2006, Israeli warplanes twice buzzed the RESIDENCE OF SYRIAN PRESIDENT Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus.
MR REZA, THESE JITTERY TYRANNIZED REGIMES REMAINS AS PAPER TIGERS DESPITE ALL THEIR TERRIBLE BELLICOSE RHETORIC!!!
From Mermi: On the Eve of Iran’s Qods Day, Leading Iranian Cleric and Dissident Ayatollah Montazeri Calls On Clerics Countrywide to Come Out Openly Against the Regime
Gonna be an interesting weekend
Don’t bet the Iranians will fold like sheep if israeli planes fly over Tehran.. They understand the key to war is logistics. In the US the Army does it best, followed by the Airforce… The Navy is best for short fused seat of your pants operations… They strike hard and fast but have no staying power… Think of Israel as an Aircraft carrier… They can kick anyones ass, but only for a short time without assistance (we are talking Conventional Weapons here)
And Don’t understimate the Iranian’s ability to take casualties. Iraq did to their own sorrow. The Key to winning any war is to be willing to take caualties to obtain your objective…Thats why Lincoln chose Grant…Grant would take casualties to win the war. The Iranians are not stupid, they know an Israeli airstrike would be short and limited…
Cheers
Royce
So der Fuehrer, er the Supreme Guide, wants a nuke for his birthday, does he? We have plenty, and the cruise missiles to deliver the present right into his lap. Maybe we should give it to him.
What the appeasers do not comprehend is that they are stoking the fires for a bigger war later. I would hope this stupidity is due to ignorance but I fear it is actually due to malevolence. The crowd we now have in power is the Blame America First Gang after all. Their small minds are mired in believing America is the fons et origo of evil in the world. All those governments practicing mass murder, continental scale impoverishment, man-made famines, and hideous oppression are just poor innocents oppressed by the evil, hegemonic, white imperialists of the USA. Their sky is colored chartreuse, you see.
The scum who rule Iran are dead serious about destroying both Israel and the USA (and Britain too, I expect). What part of “Death to the Great Satan” do Obama and his pals not understand? If they don’t wise up they are going to wake up to find nukes coming, not just at Tel Aviv (which the Obamabots and the Arabists at Foggy Bottom won’t get too upset about) but also at New York, probably by terrorist attack (and there is no guarantee it will be only a single attack). Their only hope for personal survival is a realization by our enemies that striking Washington, DC would be an own goal. I would not count on such nuanced reasoning on the part of such nutjobs, if I were Obama and the bots.
The people of Iran, except for those for whom the regime is their rice bowl, are fighting with great courage against a bunch of vicious tyrants. The least we can do is support them. If we had an administration that knew its hind extremity from its elbow, and an intelligence service capable of doing something besides reading the Encyclopedia Britannica and the New York Times to make up intel reports, we would help them. Alas, the only governmental institution we have that seems to work effectively is the Department of Defense, and it cannot do everything.
Quite so Royce. That is a danger is the idiots of the West relying on Israel to do their dirty work for them (then denouncing Israel hysterically; cf Osirak Reactor Raid). Trouble is the Mullahs are bound and determined to get nukes and start throwing them around. There is no way to get round that, short of war. Once they start that it will be sayonara Iran. If the Iranaian people want to avoid being fried in the retaliation they had better get rid of the Mullahs PDQ. We ought to help them do this.
M. Lonie! Last we crossed paths, it was at Daimnation! blog.
Here are a few late breaking links to be found at Libertarian Republican blog:
http://www.irannewsnow.com/2009/09/ghadar-night-protest/
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP253309
http://www.irannewsdigest.com/2009/09/14/from-mir-hossein-mousavis-facebook/
Thanks to Eric Dondero and the gang at L-R.
http://reza.malakut.org/2009/09/post_469.html
Congrats Mr Obama. Hope you will have FRUITFUL negotiations with mullahs of Iran.
As to Israel/Iran, Bret Stephens, in today’s (9/15/2009) Wall Street Journal, says: “Events are fast pushing Israel toward a preemptive military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities…” He concludes by reminding the President that “Iran is beyond the reach of his eloquence.” He also reminds the President to bear in mind “that very useful Roman adage, Si vis pacem, para bellum.” (If you want peace prepare for war)
HOLD YOUR Horses!
All the talk about Israel attacking Iran. IN my earlier post, I described what Israelis are planning to do, not what I wish.
Now lets get practical. If Israel attacks Iran. It will be open season for Iran to attack Israel.
One thing readers need to remember, is that Iran doesn’t start wars, but if attacked, Iran will decide will it will end.
In other words, if Israel attacks, Iran could attack for years to come, during good,bad and ugly times and everywhere. Israeli embassy in Egypt, Ecaudor..etc..
But Iran will no longer just attack embassies or this or that building. Iran will try to put an end to Israel, Period.
Overnight, in Iran, atleast 10,000 men will volunteer for martyrdom operations.
They fly to Lebanon, or drive in units of 100. They will effectively line up against the border and open a war front from the north. From the south Gaza will stir up. Overseas, in all Muslim countries the people will show their affection for Iran which in turn will encourage more Iranians to volunteer to fight.
Believe me, from Jordan to Egypt, people will be in the streets demanding that the governemnts get involved. If they don’t, or atleast stay quiet and deal with Israel from behind the curtains, Iran will aid groups in those countries to attack governemnt installations.
It will be quite a ride. The best part is that Iran will not be fighting on its own ground. No one in Iran would dare take advantage and fight a government at war with Israel. Their elimination would be sanctioned by the Sharia and Quran without a question.
Policy guided by religion.
In Islam, almost all Muftis (with fatwa power) tend to believe in the principle of “The ends justify the means.”
This pricinple is used to suppress, kill and whatever to keep Islam’s flag on top. Obviously, each sect of Muslims has its own “ends” that they believe will keep the Islamic flag on top. Hence, you see Muslims at times fighting each other, because each group thinks they are the righteous and know what is best for Islam.
However, Muslims and Christian people (not policy makers) in general tend to believe in Heavan and Hell. If someone hurts them, they might fight, if they can’t fight or are too weak, they tend to feel that the oppressor will get punished In Hell for eternity.
This is at odds with Jewish PEOPLE. They don’t believe in Hell. So if they get hurt, they will not simply “leave it to God” to punish the aggressor in the Hereafter. No, they will want to exact punishment in this life. They feel if the aggressor simply dies, “he got away” so they would want to exact revenge during this life against their enemies.
Could this be a reason why Jews has been discrimnated against throughout history by Muslims and Christians. Could it be that Muslims and Christians justifiable or unjustifiably felt that Jews want to always settle things in this lifetime and not let go? Could this revenge feeling stirring in Jews be the reason they have been despised justifiably or not by Muslims and Christians?
Could this feeling to settle things in this life, be the reason why Jews are always a party in wars waged?
Could this feeling be the reason why Israel kidnapped the Nazi Kleinman from Argentina decades later to put him on trial? Or Could this feeling be the reason why Israel killed Imad Mughnieh?
Is this feeling of settling the score, because “God won’t do it” be the reason why so many wars are fought??
Found your blog on Google. Thanks for the information!
good old Google. HAL lives!