Maybe it’ll be a turning point. Maybe not. It’s the anniversary of the massacre of students in Iran ten years ago, when they defied their tyrants and called for freedom. There are certainly a lot of people around the world who will turn out to show their contempt for the Tehran regime. I can’t keep track of them all, but there should be significant turnouts in the Hague, Vienna, Rome, Paris, Washington, New York, Irvine and Santa Monica, Seattle and Hamburg…and more and more. In Iran itself, the regime’s opponents have called for “the biggest turnout yet,” totally silent, no posters or banners, just silence.
The silence of the demonstrations would be a counterpoint to the nightly chants from the rooftops and prisons of the nation. Chants of “Allah is great,” along with “Death to the Dictator.” If you believe the folks on Twitter, those chants have been louder with each passing night, despite the violence of the Basij and Revolutionary Guards, which ranges from snipers shooting from one rooftop to another, armed thugs breaking into homes to seize computers, cell phones and other communications devices, and arrest one or more family members. Meanwhile, horribly maimed bodies have been showing up all over the country. Some of the gouging of the bodies seems to have been done to remove all evidence of bullet holes, but whatever the “explanation,” the bloody savagery is well documented.
If you want some detail about the horrors inside Iranian hospitals, have a look at Le Figaro’s account.
Over the objections of medical staff, bodies from the demonstrations were quickly moved elsewhere. “We believe they were transferred to the Baqiatollah military hospital or some other undisclosed location”, notes the doctor. Then, under the pretext of “organ donation”, all traces of bullets were removed from the bodies. “The parents were force to accept this if they wanted to retrieve the body for burial”.
And yet, the protest goes on. For the past three days, a general strike has been in effect, with significant results. Indeed, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei preemptively admitted defeat when government offices and factories were shut down in the name of a religious observance. But the strikers only expanded the range of their actions, notably by shutting down electrical grids in several cities, including parts of Tehran. Great swathes of the nation were plunged into darkness. This sort of thing is likely to continue, whatever happens on the 9th.
Most of the protesters fear the worst, warning of snipers preparing to shoot into the crowds, and a massive buildup of security forces in Tehran. There are rumors about possible countermeasures from the demonstrators, but, like the stories about massive repression, these remain to be confirmed.
Meanwhile, there are continuous accounts of internal strife in the regime’s ranks. The London Guardian, in a carefully worded account, tells us that the most powerful figure in the ongoing repression is Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba. He is said to be particularly enraged by the British Government’s seizure of more than a billion dollars in London accounts, at least some of which belongs to him. No one would be surprised to find that the supreme leader was a very wealthy man, or that he had salted away some of his money outside Iran. Others have been moving their funds to more secure lands of late.
Alas, M. Ledeen, it would appear there simply are not enough bullets in the world.
But, like the busload of lawyers off a cliff, there would be enough for a ‘good start.’
It is already tomorrow in Tehran, and, as you well know,the ‘strike’ will ensue on this date.
The ‘butchers’ and their foreign accomplices that murdered so many of my young Iranian military officer friends thirty years ago will soon awake in hell.
Thank You Lord.
I find it mystifying, Michael. You would think
the likes of David Brooks, or George Will, would
want to look north to see what happened to a right of centre political party, when the leadership was at odds with the rank and file.
The result was 12 years of the other party demonstrating that they deserve power because
they want it.
…LOL …LOL Yes, I watched Ahmadinejad fights with the fly and it is VERY FUNNY! Here is the link to it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJhyMrv0mvw
Thus far President Obama’s approach absolutely fine and well targeted. IF he says more it WILL DAMAGE the opposition. So let’s give him a great break. I find Biden’s comment on Israel and Iran very damaging and that’s what the regime wants to hear.
Michael,
“Faster Please” has arrived.
Tears of fear for the young are already in the eyes of those too old to physically fight the ‘animals.’ The young are being taught how to fight the Mullah’s brutal minions. The Diaspora is collecting money to get the people through the ‘siege.’ The Mullahs are preparing to fly to their ill begotten money in South East Asia.
Somebody needs to start updating that constitution drafted back in 1908.
Regards.
Michael,
There are two camps: Khameini/Ahmadi-Nejad and Mosavi/Rafsanjani/
Kurrubi. Appears that the bulk of the Bazarris have falling in behind the Mosavi bunch.
The ‘strike’ will cripple the economy.
The Iranian people are prepared to lose an additional 50,000 people to rid themselve of the brutal Mullahs.
How long will the regular Iranian Army stand by and permit the Mullahs butcher the people?
You know this drill.
The tempeture at the Biltmore was about 73-degrees today. Be a great place to monitor the “events” tomorrow, if you could rustle up some good wine.
Regards.
Thank you, Michael. The MSM have seemed to have given up on the revolution when, in fact, it has moved to the next phase. I hope and pray that the unions hold fast and not give in to the thugs.
God bless the freedom-loving, self-sacrificing, brave people of Iran!
So David Brooks wrote something. Big deal. He’s just the editor of the New York Times, and that’s all he is.
Is it really wise to expect demonstrations to happen only in big cities and prestigious college campuses? Would a protest in Spearfish, South Dakota; Independence, Kansas; or Juneau, Alaska be any less relevant than a protest in New York, Washington, or Los Angeles?
Please note there’s an unwritten rule for protests. City people protest. College students protest. Leftists protest. Other people rarely ever do. In particular, people from the American interior are so beaten down in their subservience to coastal “experts” that they will only let their opinions be known if they get a green light from somewhere else. There is an attitude in much of America that diplomats and “foreign policy experts” ought to make America’s foreign policy, rather than an informed citizenry.
There is a massive sneer by the traditional media against the “wrong people” expressing an opinion on foreign policy that isn’t pre-approved, and that goes tenfold for anti-rural prejudices that quite a few Iranian Americans hold. So, what we have here is a demographic roadblock. Those who tend to attend protests also tend to vote for Obama and are likely to defer to his judgment on anything. Those who vote against Obama are also those who are unlikely to attend protests on anything. Or if they do, they will likely focus upon thwarting Obama’s domestic agenda. Hence the “tea parties”.
I think one of the reasons why outfits like Stratfor are claiming that the Iranian government is strong is because their analysts are projecting American political divisions onto Iran, equating an anti-Ahmadinejad opposition based in North Tehran as a bunch of out-of-touch elitists who fail to comprehend Ahmadinejad’s real electoral appeal, much as many McGovern voters failed to comprehend the appeal of Richard Nixon in 1972. It would be just as easy for “gee whiz analysts” to equate Musavi supporters with Draskovic supporters from Belgrade facing the overwhelming popularity of Milosevic in rural Serbia in the early 1990’s, or Minsk liberals tilting against Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus. Authoritarian rulers are sometimes popular.
I happen to disagree with Stratfor’s analysis, but its rhetoric is powerful. In the United States, the “Silent Majority” was real. So, it would be easy for the usual “experts” to assume that Iran has an equivalent “silent majority” supporting Ahmadinejad to the hilt.
President Obama is like a wheelbarrow; he only moves if he is pushed. He is the kind of president who gets pushed by protest movements and hardball politicians – and little else. The protests I have noticed so far concerning Iran within the United States have been Iranian American demonstrations. There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but they seem to be much like many of the anti-war protests during the Kosovo War by Serbian Americans ten years ago. These protests may show a depth of feeling among Iranian Americans about the situation in Iran, but that is all they convey. Unless those protests can attract more than Iranian Americans, American media attention will wither to almost nothing.
If there is an unequivocal desire for friendship with America combined with a desire by Iranians Americans to express their support for their struggle for freedom, I think there would be much more willingness for Americans to get involved in a meaningful way. If this is a choice between two rival factions that each prays every Friday for every American to be put to death (perhaps waiting until after Israel is destroyed first), there will be little interest in the United States beyond the Iranian diaspora.
That’s “a desire by Iranians for Americans to express their support”.
Alexis, bravo
Two cheers for both the well-aimed and well-deserved arrows loosed against David Brooks, the button-downed, house “conservative” journalist of the NYT, who seems to be following more and more in the footsteps of Maureen Dowd, with his highly subjectivist world view.
Moral cowards and “wise men” who do nothing will always, eventually, be replaced in the lines by those willing to buy hope and ransom liberty with their bodies and lives.
For the first time in my adult life, I’m ashamed to be an American as defined by Col. obama.
I’m proud to be an American as defined by our Constitution, our Declaration of Independence and our heritage, even though the policy of freedom and the principle of supporting oppressed people who yearn to breathe free is despised by the David Brooks salon crowd.
What a bunch of destructive echo chambers and self-absorbed fools they are. Unfortunately, they’re also in charge at the moment and at this moment, the young people in Iran are paying the price.
Alexis, thank you for “getting at” the issue of “protests in Spearfish”.
I am trusting and believing that there will be a tipping point that will produce the protests not only in Spearfish, but in North Platte, NB; Guymon, OK; Sidney, MT; and, Ridgefield, WA.
The tipping point is where we rise up and won’t shut up. (Think $4 gas last summer, and the illegal immigration bill the summer before)
I’ve never quite figured out if the arrival at the tipping point can be hurried. There seems to be an issue of critical mass in public frustration and anger that can’t be promoted into existence. Tipping points seem to “have to be real”, from the gut outward.
God help us to have our national tipping point in time to save the United States of America.
added comment to my own 16…in re-reading, I see that my comments appear to relate only to the Iranian situation. My whole take on Alexis’ “protests in Spearfish” focus rises out of my frustration with the entire bowl of crap being served to our nation by our current “leaders”….we have much against which we should be vociferously protesting on behalf of our own nation….and we had better find our own tipping points, as well as finding the moral courage to rise up on behalf of Hondurans and Iranians and Russians and North Koreans….
,,,just how many fires has the weakness offered up to despots by Col. obama started to date anyway?
Let’s be realistic, even assuming there is actual political will for sanctions from enough countries, sanctions and isolation shift the balance of power to russia. If russia is willing to help the west deal with Iran, then this is a good idea, if not then it’s just an exercise increasing their regional hegemony. Iran will be quick to make russian friends and Europe gets stuck having to get it’s energy from Russia.
Also i find it a bad idea simply because of the unintended consequences. This movement is brought to you by people with satellites, cellphones, computers etc. Impoverishing the nation doesn’t help on that front. Also it has the potential to make people more dependent on the government dole rather then more rebellious.
And in all reality, how many regime changes have been brought about by sanctions? I like these Iran columns you’ve been writing, don’t get me wrong, but I’ve never understood how conservatives can acknowledge the possibility of unintended consequences in everything EXCEPT foreign policy.
This day of silence seems to go with what the great O. has been doing all along.
Any deal the great O. hopes to make with Akmadinejad will be for the benefit of the One somewhere down the line.
What has the former mainstream media come to: Matthews has infantile wee-wees and Brooks writes juvenile drivel.
And can we put an end to the prejudicial comments towards elderly white males please? And prejudicial comments towards white people in general that I’ve seen on this site? I’m tired of people acting like it’s some crime or mark of shame to attract the votes of old caucasian males or any other caucasian demographic. My father and granfather are both members of that “evil old white males” demographic and they’ve always seemed like pretty nice and upstanding gentlemen to me… They’ve never uttered a single prejudicial thing in their lives, they worked hard, they never committed a crime, they raised families well into their 60s and 70s and beyond and both served their country in the U.S. Army in three wars. That often lambasted “evil old white males” demographic also helped build and safeguard Western civilization last time I checked. They also make up the majority of the population in this country. So shouldn’t we be trying to cater to them instead of alienating them by routinely protraying them as some kind of monsters? Someone please explain to me the reasoning behind being ashamed of attracting their vote. If anything we should be immensely proud of winning their votes. I’m simply sick of people acting like attracting the old white male vote is akin to attracting the support of the Nazis or the KKK… I expect to see this kind of thing at prejudicial leftist sites like the Daily Kos and The Huffington Post. But not on conservative sites like Pajamas Media. White males are grandfathers, fathers, brothers, sons, uncles, cousins, friends, neighbors, soldiers, doctors, police officers, fire fighters, medical researchers, engineers, etc. Please stop demonizing them…
Oops. Wrong blog entry.
With respect to the “Iranian diaspora” let’s remember who these folks are – those who were rejected by the majority of Iranians in their last revolution. They are typically wealthy, educated and/or connected to the Palavi regime (and secular), saw the handwriting on the wall and left the country rather than face execution. To paint a picture from European history, think of the French aristocrats after the French Revolution, or in another context think of the Russian diaspora after the Russian Revolution for a comparison. To say they represent the majority in Iran is tenuous at best. I hope, that in the context of a potential secular and representative Iranian state, this is true, and their connection with the aspirations of Iranians is solid. That said, it’s not a slam dunk. I wish the Iranian people well, and I hope that their polity will evolve into (at least) a state that, while a regional power given it’s location and size, will not have imperial designs on it’s neighbors. More than that may not be in the cards. Nothing short of the destruction of the Islamist state is going to do much better than that, and the existing powers will not go quietly into exile.
Scattered demonstration from various parts of Tehran has started. This great idea to start demonstration from various squares and locations reduces the chances of being scattered by oppression groups, as they have limited resources against people. This idea has been advocated for a long time and now its being implemented finally. They are now moving toward Enghelab Square as they build more momentum and crowd.
One great part of the demonstration is toward Chinese embassy to protest killing of Chinese Muslims in China, where Iranian government decided to shut up and says nothing. Long live Iranian people.
The Twitter’er Oxfordgirl reported about an hour ago that there were rumors the police were turning against the Bajsi(sp?) If so, this would be significant. Everyone should follow Twitterfall and give them the web support.
Whether it was the Warsaw Uprising, the Velvet Revolution, the Orange Revolution, the Rose Revolution; we see something that catches the attention, and fears, of those temporarily in charge. That tradition
is being upheld in Teheran, and shiraz,isfahan,ahwaz,babol,kerman,mashhad sari
Elroy Jetson: Thank you, Michael. The MSM have seemed to have given up on the revolution when, in fact, it has moved to the next phase. I hope and pray that the unions hold fast and not give in to the thugs.
Which Michael are you thanking, Ledeen (sincerely) or Jackson (sarcastically)?
The MSM didn’t give up on the revolution; it just had a much bigger and more worthwhile (by their standards, anyway) ongoing story fall into their laps when Jackson died, and the predictable orgy of celebrity beatification ensued.
The MSM didn’t give up on the revolution; lets face it most Americans could give a flying rats behind about what’s happening in a backwards country where people wear sheets and have public hangings, after all Iran internal affairs are none of our business, the Presdient Obama could not have said it more clearly.
Let the media concentrate on Micheal Jackson who’s juice deails about how he lived his life is bound to keep the MSN media occupied for weeks to come!
First, it is very debatable whether or not the USA should be aiding the Iranians. The ONLY place that the USA can deliver support from is Iraq, which most of the people calling for support for Iran were against invading in the first place. So a good part of those calling f0r the USA to do something are naive or ignorant, perhaps both.
Second, there are those that see the divisions in Iran as either good Iranians, or bad Iranians. That POV is not supported by any evidence. Iranians are either bad or less bad regarding America.
Stalin was a bloody handed old bastard, but he knew what he was doing. He made a practice of encouraging his enemies internal opponents to revolt, then abandoning them. That way his enemies killed off the trouble makers so that when the Soviets invaded, most of their work was done. This is practical politics at it’s finest (sic) and something that the USA needs to consider.
Looking at Iran objectively, the ONE thing the USA wants from whoever runs Iran is an end to their nuclear weapons program. Since that will not happen no matter who wins the current kurffla (sp?), why should the USA care? As we say out here in fly-over America, “We got no dog in that fight.” The best thing that could happen is for the Iranians to kill each other in job lots.
The Ultimate outcome from the POV of America would be for both sides to fight to the last man. Then we send in a Marine Recon team to kill the last ones and move the Palestinians into what was once Iran.
This article is a fine example of yellow journalism. Heated rhetoric without a shred of evidence that the USA should get involved.
Yex, the Mad Dog Mullahs (MDM) are bad guys. SO? Both sides are controlled by the MDM, so no matter who wins a MDM will be calling the shots. Nape of the neck is traditional, although behind the left ear is also a crowd pleaser.
Mr. Leeden, please provide a REASON for the USA to get involved. Keep in mind that involvement means invasion and that the Sons and Dsughters of America will be going in harms way. Remember that the revolutionary fever that is sweping the globe ( see how many members of the G-20 are currently putting down revolutions and compare that to the last G-20 meeting) will make it to America. We will need those sons and daughters to defend our Constitution.
I’d be happier to reply if you managed to spell my name correctly, ahem. The reason to ‘get involved’ is that they are killing Americans all over the world, and have been doing it for thirty years. It does NOT “mean invasion.”
Thank you Mr. Ledeen for all of your work discussing the Iranian Revolution.
Good luck with the hip.
thanks so much. so many people to kick, such a weak hip…
Remember Neda!!!
Everybody hates everybody else in the Middle East. Support one side, the other puts you on the hate list. I agree that we should keep out of sll that business to the extent possible.
Its time for our useless (so far) president to step up. He needs to rally the leaders of the democratic countries of the world to condemn the terrorist theocracy in iran and call on the people to overthrow it. If he is unwilling to do that, HE IS A COWARD!
Michael, you haven’t dealt with the substance of Samford’s argument. Specifically, what is it that Americans want from Iran and what price do we have to pay to get it? I mean I’ve got all the good will in the world for the Persian people – hell, I don’t want anyone to live under a theocracy such as exists now in Iran. BUT, from an American geo-political interest standpoint, will the current opposition be better? I don’t see them doing a Ceauşescu on the mullahs, do you? You are on this stuff, in ways that I certainly am not, so maybe you know something I don’t. Yet what I read on the net doesn’t give me much hope for a peaceful, plural, representative democracy coming out of this struggle. What I see is projection. Lot’s of Persians of good will paint their aspirations on Mousavi. The $64 question for me, is how different is he, and is that good enough for American interests for us to be involved – which interest I define to be a) peaceful relations with Iran’s neighbors, and b) the absence of nuclear weapons. That’s all I want of them. I wish for their own sake that they could have economic and cultural development – even religious pluralism. But that is their business, not mine. More specifics on what the US should do please. And as the father of 17 year old son, I’m not interested in him going and dieing for Persian freedom. They need to bleed for that on their own.
Mr. Ledeen, what form do you think US involvement should take? The president could make encouraging noises as you suggest, but there doesn’t appear to be much concrete that we can do.
words are potent weapons, as Mikhail Gorbachev can tell you. and trade unions can build strike funds for their iranian brothers and sisters. and the opposition needs the USG to broadcast reliable information all over Iran, so that people everywhere know what is going on. finally, we should be able to get some sat phones, servers, etc. to the opposition. that needn’t be government action, by the way; private persons can do it. i’m sure Bill Gates can do it…so can Soros, who gets blamed by the regime anyway.
Re: Blackwater (21)
I hate it when that happens. Good rant though. Sort of like shooting an X on the wrong target.
Mr. Ledeen, thank you so much for these updates. A breeze just came in through my window, I sense the winds have changed.
I read the David Brooks article. The myopia, the navel-gazing stupidity, are astounding.
People are being beaten to death in Iran, our vain President basks in the adoration of the chattering classes for not “interfering”, and David Brooks writes a solemn article about the ineffable dignity of Obama. Does he think that reality begins and ends in civilized Manhattan?
Does anyone really wonder at the fate of the NYT?
Michael,
The ‘fog’ of conflict (i.e. war)much like the sandstorm Iran is also experiencing is best described as just another form of a PITA (pain in the a___). The fact that Persians invented chess to teach their military how to wage war reinforces my confidence in the folks putting their lives on the line in Iran.
Long story-short, I figure they, the Iranian people, want to get it right this time.
Laughed out loud, when I read earlier today that the IRGC has ‘locked-down’ the city of Qom to prevent the real Mullahs from joining the fight against the regime. Bearing in mind that the “regime” is still either the Khameini/Ahmadi-Nejad or the Mousavi/Rafsanjani/
Korrubi pack of animals.
Bolstering the belief that it will be the Iranian military that, ultimately, allows Iran to become a free democracy.
I hear-tell there is lots of intel coming out of Iran, however, I need somebody to translate it into English. Probably best, at this time, that we do not know everything that is going on.
Regards.
banjo, the reason why countries that are not part of the geography of the Middle East, are involved in the Middle East can be summed up this way: Airplanes are capable of going in more than one direction.
Do you refuse to learn the adage about an appeaser is someone locked in a cage with a hungry lion, and no food is being sent to the lion?
How many people have to be murdered in the streets? I’m still utterly baffled and saddened that our whole world is turning a blind eye on people who are trying to foment change from within, even if they are baby steps.
Depressing as hell.
Mr. Michael Ledeen,
Off-topic but, I hope you are healing well. Take your vitamin C, Zinc and B-complex.
Yes, I’m one of those health-nut loons. I drive my husband bonkers but, he’s still alive. lol
#32, Mr. Ledeen, actually it does mean an invasion. Nothing else will work. I have thousands of years of history of theocracy backing my claim, what do you base your theory on? Can you name a single theocracy that has been overthrown by internal forces? If you can, name it and you will have a convert.
I see nothing but hopes and wishful dreams on your side of the debate.
As far as words having power, they do ONLY in a society that practices consensual rule. In any sort of despotism, the only words with power are those of the despot. You cite the Soviet Union and I will point out that the only change to come out of the ’79 revolution was who is the dictator. For a better example of what is happening in Tehran, I give you Tiananmen Square.
As far as Iranians killing Americans for the last 30 years, yes, that is correct. As far as it being a reason for war, several administrations have passed on making war against Iran , which is why Iran is still working on killing Americans today. They will continue to kill Americans until we stop them. That will require a war.
The politicians fear that the war will kill more Americans then the small number killed by terrorists.
Iraq only stopped supporting terrorism AFTER we invaded them. Other means were tried and DIDN’T Work. So it is with Iran.
Which Mad Dog Mullah is running the show won’t make any difference. I expect the MDM running things now will prevail this time. He has more bullets, which is important when votes are done with bullets instead of ballots. The opposition will start collecting bullets, at least those that live thru this latest round.
Eventually the Mullahs will fall, but only after some other society sends in enough troops or nukes to remove the MDM.
Killing is easy when God (Allah) tells you to do it.
One has to wonder how columnist David Brooks can see to write anything at all with his head crammed so far up Obamas nether region….
When is Khamenei going to declare himself Shah?
It looks like situation got so bad that even the most softy NY Times in Tehran (Nazila Fathi) had to leave too! In this last report in NY Times, it says she is now reporting from Toronto! Her report is very powerful and first hand:
nytimes.com/2009/07/10/world/middleeast/10iran.html?hp
I’m afraid David one day will have to answer for this infatuation with style over substance. And it won’t be pretty. No as with countless others it most certainly won’t be pretty. I’m simply incapable of understanding idolotry like this for a man who has simply DONE nothing. No check that, he has done plenty. ALL of it negative. Simply put, David Brooks, and all those like him are morons.
blackwater21: i believe the term is white devil slavemaster. having never been a slave nor ever having an ancestor that even remotely could be construed as such, i have to agree with you on the rant. as a kid i got to meet some of those guys and they garnered a lot of respect. pre war sailors some of them, they were good men. always handy with a joke or a tall tale.
ps we’ve been at war with Iran since 79. so what if we would HOPE their regime to CHANGE. maybe the next squad would be easier to talk to and deal with.
WRT the likes of Brooks – What motivates a someone to pander so, the chance of better access or an invitation to next years press barbecue?
Temptation, coercion, blackmail?
Obama’s reluctance to encourage the protestors is simply because if they succeed, it means GWB was correct about spreading democracy. This is the same reasoning behind the feminists who ignore the fact that GWB brought the rule of law to 26 million women in Iraq and Afghanistan. I wonder how Honduras fits into this sickening scenario. What did GWB do there?
Nothing President Bush did can ever be praised in their perverse derangement; unspeakable suffering be damned!
Re. Dr. Bukk
For the record, I hope I can be as clear as I could be:
If W was in office right now, there would not be ANY DEMONSTRATION in Iran. PERIOD. NONE. NONE means ZEEROOO! Why? Because GWB was in office and that gives the energy and life to people like Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. Bush was their stem cell, oxygen, water, food, life, happiness and security. Do you people get it? Anyone out there?! Can you hear me, or you keep repeating the same damaging understanding of yours?
The only reason Iranians are on streets is solely because Republicans ARE NOT in power. PERIOD. So keep criticizing Obama for not being more demanding and supportive of Iranian people, but HIS ELECTION and him being in power is one of the sole critical elements of what we see in Iran.
So I’ll be happy to notarize my statement in this regard that the MOST DAMAGING DESTRUCTIVE agent that harmed Iran for many years was Bush. So I hope you people on the right finally get that.
And when I hear Sen. McCain asks Obama for more support of Iranian opposition, I feel like a child has taken over a powerful position and has NO IDEA what he is talking about. Or maybe he knows and he is working against Iranian people.
Michael,
With all the human rights violation ‘evidence’ being collected (Twitter, Facebook, et al) by the Iranian communities, we should soon expect Sahria Law Fatwas being issued by some Qom Mullahs.
Regards.
Maybe all the mullahs are mad dogs by some posters’standards, but there are considerable differences between them. The same thing was true of Stalin and those who followed him in the Soviet Union. Anyone who would not approve of ousting a Stalin in favor of a Leonid Brezhnev would be a fool. Brezhnev was just as hostile to American interests, but he was not paranoid. He was a cautious and calculating man by nature.
Some of the mullahs are quite mad by anyone’s standards-including that of their peers. Ask followers of Ayatollah Sistani their opinion of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. Some of them are cautious by nature. As with clergyman in America, a few are even venal opportunists, men who decided thirty years ago that ditching western dress for a robe and turban then asking people to address them as Hojat al-Islam beat growing pistachios for a living. I know that I’d rather have an erstwhile pistachio farmer whose now filthy rich family savors the good life in charge over a dedicated true believer who wants to hasten the return of the hidden imam.
As for the idea that those not in the streets demonstrating must automatically support Ahmadinejad, that is pure tripe. The general rule has always been that no matter the political, religious or cultural climate, in times of domestic turmoil the majority of people tend to hunker down at home to wait and see which side will come out ahead.
If the reports of the guys at the top abruptly sending large amounts of $ out of country, hedging their bets apparently, that’s a potentially positive sign. As is the fracture in Qom.
What’s the latest on Rafsanjani, Mr. Ledeen? What about the oil workers union?
Michael, I have been trying to get to that carefully worded article at the Guardian newspaper, and each time I wind up at the pajamasmedia.com home page.
Would you check the code.
Thanks.
Plus, nothing at all happens with the Le Figaro link on the first page of this entry.
ayatollah Montazeri issued a series of Fatwas today through Mohsen Kadivar. Calling the regime illegitimate and demanded resistance. Compares the regime with Stalin & Fascist systems. It’s an interesting development.
The Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a very IMPORTANT Fatva against Khamenei and his gang.
His statement is very much close to calling people for a Jihad against Khamenei. In other word, he is saying anyone who stays silent and not take action is in some way is supporting the unjust leader. This is the strongest and most direct way to basically removing any doubt in lack of legitimacy of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.
He goes further and declares to remove such individuals; there is no need for proper legal remedies (such a Assembly of Experts voting against him). This is earth shattering and for sure in the coming days we will see other Grand Ayatollahs issue similar fatva. I hope soon such a fatva will b issued by Ayatollah Sisstani, which basically kills Khamenei for any hope of keeping his position.
Re: Winston’s Article #64
Alireza’s Article #65
Michael,
Assuming that Winston’s (article #64) and Alireza’s (article #65) statements are valid, does this mean that both camps, Khameini/Amadi-Nejad and Mousavi/Rafsanjani/Kurrubi, fall under the aforementioned Fatwas?
Any word on the status of the national oil strike? Latest feedback I received is that there is such a huge glut of oil worldwide that nobody seems to care whether Iran produces oil or not.
Got to believe that there is at least one nationalist general in their demoralized army that has the backbone to take control through a national emergency decree. The two ayatollahs, Montazen and Kadiver, need to stand next to an army general they trust and endorse the national emergency take over.
Regards.
I saw this over at the Jerusalem Post. I think it is fitting for here. Enjoy!
The Jerusalem Post Internet Edition
Column One: Numbering the days of dictators
Jul. 9, 2009
Caroline Glick , THE JERUSALEM POST
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had reason to feel good about himself this week. Less than a month after he secured his hold on power for another four years by rigging the presidential elections, Ahmadinejad felt comfortable addressing his subjugated nation as its rightful dictator. So in a chilling televised performance on Tuesday, he triumphantly declared the stolen June 12 poll the “freest” and the “healthiest” elections in the world and promised they would act as a harbinger for Islamic revolution worldwide.
Ahmadinejad’s accomplishments these past few weeks have been vast and unmistakable. By securing the unconditional support of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his power grab, Ahmadinejad killed three birds with one stone. He ensured that the clerical hierarchy in Qom – which is dependent on Khamenei for its financial stability – acquiesced to his authority. He expanded the Revolutionary Guards Corps’ control over the country by making it the indispensable guardian of the revolution. And he effectively transformed Khamenei from the “supreme leader” into a creature of Ahmadinejad’s will. The moment that Khamenei gave Ahmadinejad his full support and gave a green light to the Revolutionary Guards to repress the protesters, Khamenei tied his own fate to that of his president.
This means that today Ahmadinejad is completely free to maintain and escalate his policy of international brinksmanship on all levels. From Iran’s race toward nuclear capabilities, to its efforts to destabilize Iraq and Afghanistan, to its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, to its support for anti-American regimes in Latin America and its cultivation of terror networks in the Western hemisphere, to its strategic proliferation alliance with North Korea, Ahmadinejad’s continued reign means that the world can expect expanded Iranian activity on all these fronts.
In the meantime, the rest of the world’s response to events in Iran has been discouraging. The G-8′s decision Wednesday to wait until late September to even consider stronger sanctions against Iran means that at a minimum Ahmadinejad has another three months to enrich uranium without worry. And given that US President Barack Obama is on record supporting pursuing negotiations with Iran until at least January 2010, it is hard to imagine that the international community will take any concerted action against Iran in the foreseeable future.
As he moves forward, no doubt Ahmadinejad takes heart from the supine US response to North Korea’s July 4 missile launches. On Tuesday, Yediot Aharonot reported that Israeli analysts who reviewed videotapes of North Korea’s missile tests concluded that alongside the various short range Scuds it sent over the Sea of Japan, Pyongyang also launched a Taeopodong-2 multi-stage long range missile capable of reaching Alaska. Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center, said, “The three seconds seen [of the Taeopodong-2] on the video prove how much North Korea’s long range missile program has advanced.”
At the same time, both South Korean intelligence and US Defense Department sources have accused North Korea of responsibility for launching massive cyber-attacks against US and South Korean computer systems over the past week. The attacks temporarily crippled multiple systems including those of the National Security Agency, Homeland Security Department, the South Korean Foreign Ministry, the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange, and The Washington Post.
In the face of all of this, the Obama administration has been disturbingly timid. The White House’s most consistent response to North Korea’s belligerent moves has been to ignore them and hope North Korea decides to behave itself.
Matching their meekness toward Iran, the G-8 leaders responded to Pyongyang’s most recent provocations with an announcement that they would like to become friends with Kim Jong Il. As Obama put it, “It’s very important for the world community to speak to countries like Iran and North Korea and encourage them to take a path that does not result in a nuclear arms race in places like the Middle East.”
OVER THE past several weeks, as the regimes in Pyongyang and Teheran have become ever more brazen in demonstrating their belligerent contempt for the West, the prevailing wisdom has argued that the West has no good options for containing or defeating them.
The traditional take on North Korea is that the world’s leading missile and nuclear proliferator poses less of a burden to global stability than a post-regime North Korea filled with millions of starving people who have been cut off from the world for 60 years. By this thinking, the world is better off living with a psycho-state capable of fomenting a global nuclear war than caring for its victims.
As for Iran, as Gabriel Schoenfeld wrote last month in The Wall Street Journal, due to the gutting of the CIA’s capacity to conduct covert political warfare during the 1970s, today the US lacks the capability to assist Iranian regime opponents in their efforts to overthrow the mullocracy. As Schoenfeld put it, “the US appears utterly powerless to influence the course of events.”
Schoenfeld urged the US to move swiftly to rebuild its covert political operations capacity. While this certainly makes sense, in truth, the US doesn’t need to build up much of a capacity to topple either the regime in Pyongyang or the regime in Teheran.
Despite Ahmadinejad’s success in maintaining his grip on power, it is an indisputable fact that regime opponents succeeded these past few weeks as never before in destabilizing the regime and in demonstrating its hollow core. Even as Ahmadinejad was glorying in his victory, his opponents – defeated presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and former president Muhammad Khatami – were calling for a three-day national strike.
On Thursday, thousands of Iranians risked life and limb to heed the call to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the regime crackdown on university students. That the 1999 crackdown occurred on Khatami’s orders shows that regime opponents are looking for fundamental, revolutionary change in the regime – not cosmetic reforms.
It is worth noting that Iran’s current revolutionary ferment arose from the unlikeliest of sources. The June 12 elections were not supposed to pose a challenge to the regime. All they were supposed to do was pit one regime loyalist against three other regime loyalists.
The fact that the public could view Ahmadinejad’s decision to steal the election from former prime minister and regime loyalist Mousavi as an opportunity to bring down the regime demonstrates clearly the magnitude of the public’s rejection of the Islamic Revolution. Quite simply, if the Iranian people can take these elections as an excuse to call for the overthrow of the regime, any spark can light that fire.
WHILE A refurbished CIA would no doubt be helpful in this regard, it is not necessary. The international community already has the necessary tools to do the job. All it needs – indeed all any one country needs – is the will to actively assist Iran’s disparate dissident groups who separately and together wish to see the end of the mullocracy.
Iran’s borders are porous. Whether through international defense contractors or covert operatives working for any country, arms can be easily smuggled to various disaffected minorities from the Azeris to the Kurds, the Baluchis the Ahwaz Arabs, and the Baha’is. Iraq’s ratlines run two ways. So do Afghanistan’s.
As to the Persians, they are already taking the lead in calling for national strikes. They should be supported through Internet, radio and satellite broadcasts. Whether through the Voice of America, the Voice of Israel, Radio Free Europe, or Radio Free Iran, foreign agents can pump in truthful and relevant information about the regime and enable coordinated, countrywide unrest that could potentially topple the regime in a matter of days or weeks.
Then there is North Korea. As ailing dictator Kim Jong Il uses his brinksmanship to secure a smooth transfer of control over his malnourished slave state to his son ahead of his death, it seems as though no one in the West has a clue what to do about North Korea. The US, we have been told, is too overextended with its deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq to successfully deter or prevent North Korea from carrying out further provocations and proliferation activities. And anyway, for years we have been told that North Korea isn’t really serious about its threats. As far as the “experts” are concerned, North Korea’s leaders don’t really mean anyone any harm. They just want to scare us all a little to make sure we don’t get any ideas about bringing them down.
But the fact is that between its own provocations and its massive proliferation of missiles and nuclear technology, North Korea is an enormous threat to global security. And it is also a fact that overthrowing the regime in North Korea is the easiest, safest, fastest, and most humane way to prevent the likes of Kim Jong Il from provoking and proliferating the world into a nuclear conflagration.
All it would take to put an end to this monstrous regime is for South Korea to open up its borders. How long would it take for the last North Korean to turn off the lights when Seoul beckoned over the horizon?
THE MODELS for overthrowing the regimes in Teheran and Pyongyang are not new. Modified versions were successfully implemented just 20-odd years ago. The model for Iran is Poland circa 1981. The model for North Korea is East Germany in 1989.
Unfortunately, whereas in the 1980s the leaders of the Free World were committed to winning the Cold War against the Soviet Union by securing the freedom of those who lived under Communism’s jackboot, today, led by Obama, the Free World behaves as though the Berlin Wall fell of its own devices. The will of free men and women risking everything to oppose tyranny had nothing to do with it, we are told. If we care about peace, we should appease the likes of Ahmadinejad and Kim, not bring them down.
On Tuesday, an insect wrecked Ahmadinejad’s victory speech. As he bragged that Iranian democracy is a role model for the world, a large moth zoomed around him, breaking his train of thought. Ahmadinejad was brought low before his people by a moth he couldn’t swat.
If a bug could humiliate Ahmadinejad in what was supposed to be his moment of triumph, surely the willing nations of the world – or even just Israel – together with the brave Iranian people can bring him down. It would certainly be more cost effective than trying to negotiate a deal with a nuclear-armed mullocracy.
And certainly the South Koreans and the Japanese can feed the starving North Koreans and free them from the bondage of their monstrous regime. Doing so would be vastly less expensive than living under the shadow of Pyongyang’s nuclear-armed psycho-regime.
Just because the US is currently on vacation from its role as leader of the Free World doesn’t mean that other free people cannot do the right thing.
caroline@carolineglick.com
Re. Caroline Glick article:
I sincerely hope and wish that Israel, like U.S. President, kept its distance from what is going on in Iran.
I get extremely nervous whenever I hear such overt supports hit the airwaves and newspapers. These articles are the fuel for people like Shariatmadari at Keyhan newspaper to portray Iranian freedom fighters puppets of Israel. Thank you very much, but WE DO NOT NEED such a support, given the idea of it, like the $75 million Congress for Democracy in Iran, will be more hurtful and damaging. So please BACK OFF! Silence!
I think the best help that could be provided is by Iranians who are in Israel to voice their concern and support anyway they can, but nothing more. This fight with the regime does not need guns to kill other Iranians. NO. NO. MEK did it and then ended up fighting against Iranians in Iraq, which is the most shameful thing anyone can do against its country.
What Iranian people need are lack of recognition of Ahmadinejad and the government by majority of countries around the world. If Japan comes out and says we will wait for Iran to clarify the election result, or S. Korea and countries like that come out and do that, then you’ll see how this government fall apart, as brave Iranian people march the streets.
Iran Joint Chief of Staff, Lt. General Hassan FiroozAbadi just published an open letter to 12th Imam Mehdi, and basically letting him know about his way of thinking from 30 years ago to the last election and demonstrations.
As I read more of this letter, it is clear that there is serious lack of determination in rank and file of the Baseej, in the first place, which has caused FiroozAbadi to keep mentioning Baseej in his letter over and over again. Moral is going down fast and in alarming rate.
Baseeji people have been seriously demoralized. This force started losing members, since many of them were underage, and many parents learning and watching the events on satellite TV and other sources are worry that their kids will be wasted in no time.
So many of them are being pushed and discourage to stay in the Baseej. So Firoozabadi’s letter going back into the history of the Baseej and its critical role in the war with Iraq was one way to boost the fast losing moral of the members.
My other take is that given Khamenei and his son being paranoid about the loyalty of the armed forces, FiroozAbadi wanted to make sure that he is still with them and this was one way to give them this assurance.
This clearly indicates the rank and file are starting to get weaken to fight against their own countrymen, and specially when Grand A. Montazeri issues a fatva that basically declare a jihad against Khamenei and the oppression forces. In his fatva, he is basically saying if you do not fight against Khamenei it is equal to being an idol worshiper and you are no longer a Muslim. Wow!
So coming out with such a letter validates the splits and growing doubts among the forces and that many of the officers are very much followers of one of the Ayatollahs and publishing a letter like this tries to lower their confusion and guilt they feel in keeping the statuesque.
This letter might be the new beginning in opposition’s favor.
Somehow, I don’t think Dr. Ledeen is shutting down his blog anytime soon. Accuse him of helping the Iranian government all you want. Accuse him all you want of discrediting the Iranian opposition because the Iranian government will claim that all the regime’s opponents are really puppets of Michael Ledeen’s supposedly satanic eminence. If you tell him to shut up because the Iranian government is watching his every move and is looking for a chance to make every Iranian dissident look like his minion, you are a fool.
Dr. Ledeen is a Jew, he is an American, and he writes for the National Review – three strikes against him in the phantasmagoric universe that is the mind of an Iranian conspiracy theorist. I distinctly doubt that the Iranian opposition loses any legitimacy whatsoever whenever any American or Jew or conservative opens his or her mouth.
“These articles are the fuel for people like Shariatmadari… to portray Iranian freedom fighters puppets of Israel”
Can you envision a scenario where they wouldn’t say that, even if Israel and all Jews within the world were magically incommunicado for the month?
Re. 74. Alexis:
Alexis, what I wrote had nothing to do with this site, but more to do with a COUNTRY called Israel!!! Do you get that? And the same applies to 76. Casetal! So you people , in a very direct way, you are more into connecting Dr. Ledeen as an Israeli agent and representative than a patriotic American, who happen to be a Jew!!!! So let’s avoid Ahmadinejad-type word-smith and saying crazy things, like he just asked the U.N Sec. Council to condemn Germany about that poor helpless Muslim getting killed in German court, while he ignore in broad day light his own countrymen are being tortured, killed and disappear in protest against him.
oHoBpk
glad to find this site
Wow! amazing verbage, I don’t really agree and I am still enjoying this.