The Iranian Circus III
Iran doesn’t have elections, it has circuses, and this was proven once again on Friday, when the regime announced that Ahmadinezhad had been retained–call him “landslide Mahmoud” please–as president of the Islamic Republic. So much for the remarks of various pundits claiming that Iran was some sort of “democracy.” There isn’t a single educated Iranian who thinks that the official numbers represent anything more than a brazen insult to the opponents of the regime. Supreme Leader Khamenei rubbed it in when he called the outcome “divine,” but the subtlety was no doubt lost on American commentators, who were mostly concerned that the ugly circus might be good for neocons, or for Israel (yes, much the same thing, I know). Maybe Roger Cohen still believes in Iranian democracy (albeit “incomplete”), but that in itself tells you how silly the idea was.
Ever since the proclamation of Ahmadinezhad’s “triumph,” the streets of the cities have been boiling with anti-regime demonstrations, with the predictable violent crackdown from the security forces. There is hardly a city anywhere in the country where demonstrations are not taking place, and you can gauge the seriousness of the situation by the regime’s response:
- Mousavi and Karrubi, the two “reformist” candidates in Friday’s “elections” are under house arrest, along with dozens of their followers;
- “Reformist” journalists and activists have been rounded up and jailed;
- Cell phones (including, after a day’s delay, international cell phones) have been blocked, access to internet has been filtered, facebook is unreachable, and you can’t tweet (can the silencing of Western reporters be far behind?);
- In Tehran, student dormitories are surrounded by security forces.
Stalin would be proud. But even his Soviet Union eventually succumbed to the dissidents, and while the regime has most all of the guns, the chains, the clubs, the tear gas cannisters, and the torture chambers, there are tens of millions of Iranians who hate the regime. The question is whether they are prepared to face down the Basij, the police, and the Revolutionary Guards. It is usually a matter of numbers in these cases: if a million people gather in front of the Supreme Leader’s palace and demand freedom, while half that number make the same demand in front of the government buildings in Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz and Mashad, they might win.
Until quite recently, the Iranians did not believe they could do such a thing on their own. They believed they needed outside support, above all American support, in order to succeed. They thought that Bushitlercheney would provide that support, and they were bitterly disappointed. But nobody believes that Obama will help them, and they must know that they are on their own.
Any hope they might have had in the Obama White House was quickly dismissed in the administration’s two statements on the matter. The first came from the president himself, anticipating a Mousavi victory (it is too soon to speculate on the source of this happy thought), and of course, in his narcissistic way, taking personal credit for it:
“We are excited to see what appears to be a robust debate taking place in Iran and obviously, after the speech that I made in Cairo, we tried to send a clear message that we think there’s a possibility of change and, ultimately, the election is for the Iranians to decide but just as what has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well, is that you’re seeing people looking at new possiblities, and whoever ends up winning the election in Iran, the fact that there’s been a robust debate hopefully will help advance our ability to engage them in new ways.”
I’ve reread the Cairo Sermon, and I can’t find a single word calling for freedom for the Iranian people. Au contraire, Obama’s words about Iran were penitent, apologizing for the American role, back in 1953, in removing what the president called an elected government (Mossadeq, that is. Except that he was appointed by the shah, not elected at all). But then, history is not his strong suit.
Once it became clear that Ahmadinezhad was staying, the White House, while expressing skepticism about the accuracy of the vote count, nonetheless insisted that it might be good news after all:
The dominant view among Obama administration officials is that the regime will look so bad as a result of whipping up Iranian hopes for democracy and then squelching them that the regime may feel compelled to show some conciliatory response to Obama’s gestures of engagement.
I suppose that might be true if the regime were interested in winning a few points in the next Gallup poll, but these guys are currently fighting for survival. Everybody now knows that most Iranians hate the regime, and a lot of them are not quietly going home and getting ready to soldier on for the next four years of brutal repression, seeing their oil revenues sent to Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and al Qaeda, and to the nuclear weapons program rather than to their own increasingly miserable circumstances. They are making a stand, at least for the moment.
There are many videos on YouTube, and this description from Marie Colvin, a first-class reporter at the (London) Times gives you an idea of the earliest demonstrations in Tehran:
In the Iranian capital’s most serious unrest for 10 years, thousands of liberals who claimed the election had been rigged vented their fury in running battles with police.
They fought officers armed with batons and stun grenades, set fire to police vehicles and threw stones at government buildings.
I saw police in camouflage uniforms and black flak jackets respond by firing the grenades from motorcycles into a crowd that chanted “Down with the dictator” and denounced what it called a stolen election.
In a stand-off near the interior ministry, which oversaw the count, opposition supporters formed barricades of burning tyres, sending plumes of smoke over the city. Helmeted police chased protesters who became detached from the main group and beat them with truncheons.
The first wave of repression failed. By all accounts, as of Saturday/Sunday night the demonstrations had grown. There were demonstrations all over Tehran, from the “good neighborhoods” to the slums, as in every other major city.
If ever there were a time for an American president to speak out in behalf of freedom, this is it. And Steve Hayes called upon Obama to do it:
Obama could tap into the enthusiasm and frustration of the protesters with a few well-chosen words about democracy, the rule of law, the will of the people, consent of the governed and legitimacy. He could choose a compelling story or two from inside Iran to make his points most dramatically, perhaps an anecdote about sacrifices some Iranians made to vote or an example of post-election intimidation.
Not bloody likely. As Allah knows, anything said by Obama on behalf of freedom in Iran would sabotage his utopian vision of negotiating a Grand Bargain with the mullahs, and he’s not a favorite to do that simply because seventy million people are being crushed by an evil regime that vows Death to America, and moves closer to building an arsenal of atomic bombs every day.
No, it’s up to the Iranians. Can the green revolution succeed in the face of “the dictatorship of lies”? Unlikely, to be sure. But life is full of surprises. The end of the mullahcracy is not impossible.
UPDATE: Khamenei scheduled to meet with Mousavi late Sunday night. Karrubi issues statement calling for continuing protests.
Lots of arrests, perhaps a thousand or so in Tehran alone. According to Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, the infamous section 209 of Evin Prison (solitary confinement, torture cells) has been emptied to make room for new arrivals.
Foreign reporters beaten and detained. One Belgian reporter, two others (unidentified as yet).
Reports that some of the thugs doing the “crowd control” are foreigners, who speak Arabic, not Farsi. These seem to be Hezbollah people, from both Lebanon and Syria.
Rumors that Venezuelan security personnel are also participating, although this is unconfirmed.
It does seem that some Revolutionary Guards have refused to participate in the crackdown; some have reportedly gone over to the protestors. This of course is a key indicator, but it will be extremely difficult to get accurate information.
UPDATE II: Sunday night, my time. Just got this from a fine source:
What do you think? Did regime made a strategic mistake by denying Mousavi the victory? Or Did the regime not expect people to come out as angry as they seem to be?
I think the regime made a strategic mistake in not calculating what can happen if middle-class people are denied victory. Let’s hope this was a mistake on their part resulting in their permanent death. ISHALLA….
“…apologizing for the American role, back in 1953″
Barack Obama is a self-hating American. In his heart of hearts, it is our fault that the world is in such a mess. This is especially true of the alleged cancerous impact of white American males. Iran was a land of milk and honey and magical flying carpets until the CIA got rid of Mossadeq. Obama’s knowledge of Iran probably ended after he finished reading Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. Saudi Arabia is somewhere near Iran—and that’s close enough. There’s no sense getting overly concerned about a few minor specifics.
It is, as you say, up to the Iranians. This leads to the question of who in Iran or in exile, can organize this anger and energy into a positive movement? Is there anyone?
hahahahahah….
This is a funny site, Mr. ledeen is so out of touch with reality both here at home and in Iran.
There are maybe 50k people in the streets “demonstrating” against the victory by the incumbent…all across other cities, there is nothing going on. Mr. Ledeen never shows any facts, he has not shown any sources for his claims, they are just that..claims!
The Iranian elite reformists like Mousavi, and others are corrupt, they realize that this president will stop corruption in Iran. It is only natural that Mousavi is decrying this result, hell, he declared victory before the polls had even closed.
Mousavi has the support of Northern Tehran, and maybe some other metropolitan areas, but the majority of poor people, rural people, support Ahmadinejad and thats a fact.
Mr. Ledeen, please post your vitriol and baseless accusations on other sites, lets keep this site purely for fact.s
So the police and the enforcers of the regime are battling in the streets with the Iranian people. Well, the people could hold hostage the family members of the police.
This is a no brainer.
When the police comes after you, and they’re better armed than you, then you start grabbing something that’s important to them, something immediate and visceral, like family members, wives and children.
They could paralyze the police force within a day, and force the police to round up their own family members and whisk them off into the Iranian version of protected custody.
Where are the corpulent pig religious figures? I’m not talking here the ruling council, I’m talking about the local fanatic in any given town, who has always been keen on supporting that evil regime. String him up, string him up by his turban.
That’s just for starters.
Burn the mosques to the ground.
Burn the religious “schools” to the ground.
Burn the homes of those that support the regime to the ground. It was OK in Colonial Mass to burn Hutchinson’s place to the ground, sending his family scampering just prior to it being torched, and it’s OK here.
Stop burning tires and start burning every visible symbol of that regime. Burn and destroy every single home of some corrupted dirtball who made money via the regime.
Do it everywhere, do it all the time.
When cops don’t have homes to return to, when cops are worried about their family members, where corpulent religious rulers realize their own fat hides are on the line, when those who lined their pockets supporting the creepy mullahs are in danger, things will change fast.
Street theater didn’t cut it before, and it isn’t going to cut it now.
Iran has known street theater often. It’s time to start slaughtering the mullahs wherever they can be found.
What was clearly evident here is that this is a head fake velvet revolution orchestrated by the Khatami, Musavi, and the rest of the EU-tied faction within the regime. Their goal, along with Ayatollah BBC’s goal, is not to topple the mullah regime at all, quiet the contrary; they want to preserve this regime albeit without Khamenei and Ahmadinejad(who belong to the opposing Cino-Russian faction within the regime)–
So Musavi had an ‘extensive network’ in Iran, with Rafsanjani’s financial help(a fact that Ahmadineajd revealed in his TV debate with Musavi), and he is using it in the streets to see what they can get, if anything after his humiliating defeat.
In fact, Rafsanjani’s wife, the pinnacle of backwardness and medievality, called for ‘people to pour into the streets” the other day!
The way I see it, Ahmadinjead and Khamenei stopped a coup by Musavi, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and the rest of Euro-philles, by conducting their own ‘counter-coup’ against it(rigging the vote). And it looks like the ‘fundamentalists’ have dealt a major blow to the ‘reformists” and have won this battle.
Since their counter-coup, Ahmadinejad Baseej have arrested Khatami’s brother(another EU plant) and a bunch of other organizations like “Jebhe Mosharekat” who feed the Euro-mullahs politically and organizationally.
Excellent, I say! Let one faction within the regime tear apart and destroy the other one. Less work for us in the future to face only one faction.
I will not be surprised to see Khatami himself, and Rafsanjani be next to be hung out to dry (perhaps even arrested and tried for financial corruption in the cas eof Rafsanjani, and treason in the case of Khatami since he is a known freemason and a German/Austrian lap dog).
Of course, the model and pattern that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei follow is that of the great purges done by Stalin in USSR of his internal factional enemies, as well as the purges done in Communist China of the same vein. That figures since they both belong to them.
Clearly, the theofascist regime in Iran is still firmly in control, as having the domestic police (Interior) ministry in charge of elections demonstrates. If the Iranian police are running elections and are at the same time intensely loyal to the existing government, then doesn’t the police have ultimate control over the electoral process, such as collecting ballot boxes and counting votes?
When in authoritarian regimes the police control elections instead of the army, then isn’t the form of repressive governance usually known as, “a police state,” or otherwise loosely as, “fascist”?
Not one single piece of mainstream media anywhere in the world correctly identifies the form of governance in Iran as an evolved form of fascism. Not until we–the Right and Left and libertarians in the West–start correctly identifying the theofascism in Iran will we see an appreciation of just how high a hill the Iranian people have to climb to realize their freedom. So long as Iran is described by media and pundits as a “democracy” experiencing spirited elections, instead of being more accurately described as being “theofascist” where the spirited elections are carefully under police control, unrealistic wishful thinking will dominate the news stories out of Iran.
There will never be a regime change in the governing philosophy of Iran, nor will there ever be open and free elections, as long we in the West self-promote unrealistic wishful thinking about the character and form of Iran’s governance. To be accurate, we all should describe Iran just as it is: A theofascist state complete with police-controlled elections, a decimated political Left, a psychic agressiveness that reveres homicidal/suicide as a virtue, a belligerence born of absolutism that must have, seek or create an enemy, and the ideal of ‘purity’ as the moral glue which binds the society.
If the American neo-conservatives cannot intellectually and honestly discredit theofascism in Iran, by accurately describing what is actually occuring, then who will?
The Black Dossier of so-called Iran regime “reformists”!:
Starting in 1988, on the orders of Khomeini, a council was formed, with Mousavi as a member, to revise the regime’s constitution to drastically increase the powers of the supreme leader.[1][2]
Mousavi’s socialist ideology became very apparent during the 1980s when he initiated Islamic Socialist policies such as subsidized food coupons, oil coupons and converting private enterprises into government controlled entities.
Mr. Mousavi was responsible for the mass executions of 80-81 and the dark summer of 1988 where over thirty thousand political prisoners were executed and buried and mass graves.[3]
Additionally, it was during his leadership that Karroubi became infamous for numerous sexual scandals and severe corruption
In spite of promises during his campaign for presidency that he would support a free press, Karroubi reneged on his promise and on the orders of Khamene’i prevented the parliament from voting on a bill to ease press restrictions.
Mousavi’s reputation for radicalism was undiminished. When he introduced his cabinet in 1985, he boasted that his interior minister, Ali Akbar Mohtashami, was a religious conservative who’d built his reputation while building Hezbollah, the Party of God, in Lebanon.
Mousavi’s parliamentary followers supported continuing terrorist operations in Lebanon
Picture: A young Mir Hossein Mousavi (far left) is seated next to then President Ali Khamenei and Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili. Ayatollah Khomeini is seated on the bed (far right). In the Farsi caption of the photo from Mr. Mousavi’s Web site, Ghalam, the candidate asserts his commitment to the regime’s survival.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir-Hossein_Mousavi
“If the American neo-conservatives cannot intellectually and honestly discredit theofascism in Iran”
Why are you seemingly blaming neo-conservatives? They don’t even slightly disagree with you. Are you implying that the Obama administration is comprised of neo-cons?
I don’t think the Iranian protesters have any option but to take this all the way. Their faces are in the mullahs’ files, it’s hang together or hang separately.
“But nobody believes that Obama will help them, and they must know that they are on their own.”
WH silence in statements Saturday over concern for the opposition, for demonstrators and for “cool heads” sends a clear signal as to just who’s side the WH is willing to support. Iranian demonstrators are, indeed, very much on their own.
It sends, too, a clear signal here at home about the attitudes and feelings the WH has towards American demonstrators and its ultimate willingness to support Tea Parties and the like… If Americans research the fate of the 1932 Bonus Army and how that entirely peaceful demonstration was crushed, they’ll see the pattern used later at Tienanmen Square.
The real tragedy is that Obama doesn’t give a damn.He will say it is unfortunate and go on trying to talk to this illegitimate Iranian president who may actually be one of the ‘students’ who beat US diplomats during their 444 day captivity during President Carter’s era. Obama has turned his back on democracy in the Arab world and in Iran. Obama is content to deal with despots and dictators. The only nation he continues to beat up on is Israel, the only democracy in the entire region.
David Thompson, what powers do you have that you can state what is in Obama’s heart of hearts? You reap all the worlds problems on this man’s first 120 days in office! You are either a fool or a fascist. But either way you are wrong.
I wonder how many Israels or neocons are contributing to these kinds of blogs to push their agenda of war. These kinds of low life’s have no shame or boundaries to their desire for power.
The only option is to encourage peaceful demonstrations in the form of that preached by Gandhi, and used successfully in say the Philippines to overthrow Marcos. Any talk of an Israel war or extreme actions will only hurt the ones who want new rule as those in power will have access to their needs.
It is a tempered response we need, not some gun-slinger’s reaction as Bush II would have provided.
I’m following the “tweets” from Iran. Fascinating. As of a few hours ago the tenor seems to be changing as the regime seems to be taking an even harder stand. One tweeter writes that students are now being rounded up by the hundreds; another writes that the police are increasingly beating people up; and another writes that police are speaking in Arabic and suggests that these police have been imported from Lebanon.
This is more of an anti-regime protest. Anything short of calling this an uprising by the Iranian people is shameful.
<<>>
@sam
So you are already legitimizing the electoral process under fascist regime in Iran by calling it a “victory”.
Iranians are putting their lives in silver plate for freedom and fighting against this murderous regime and you dare to call it a demonstration.
Please keep your ignorant insults to yourself.
BTW: there are uprising and fighting in all cities in Iran including small towns.
Let me know if you are incapable of viewing U-tube because there are 1000s of videos in there showing Iranians struggle against your evil buddies in oligarchic fascist regime.
I picked up Sharansky’s book this morning and re-read some parts, and came across that chapter where he talks about “double-thinkers.” In all fear societies, there are the groups of people: 1) the “true believers” who agree with the regime (a minority), 2) the dissidents who actively oppose it (also a minority), and 3) the “doulble-thinkers,” those who hate the regime but are too afraid to protest.
According to him, this is the bulk of the population under a tyranny.
Would you say Iran’s at the point where it’s double-thinkers are becoming dissidents?
Remember that trend from a few years back called “flash mobs”? Europe did it a lot. Hundreds, even thousands of people would plan online to meet at the same location, say Grand Central Station, at the same time of the day, and they would all do something similar, whether it was freezing in mid-air, or wearing a funny outfit.
Phone cards and texts etc. would go a long way towards helping the Iranians replicate that in forms of protest. Which is of course why the regime is coming down on these things. The question is, how can we respond?
Mr. Thomson,
No, sir, I did not mean to imply that neo-cons comprise the Obama administration, although it is heartening to see both Mr. Holbrooke and Mr. Ross in such prominent positions in Mr. Obama’s administration in dealing with the Middle East. It’s my belief that if an evolved form of religious fascism (‘theofascism,’ a term that re-phrases Arendt’s “clerico-fascism”) in Iran is to be defeated, it is vital that the effort be led by the political Right, especially by the Right’s brightest intellectuals, of whom Dr. Ledeen is prominent.
Unfortunately, the neo-cons have adopted the term ‘Islamofascism’ to describe jihadism, and while the term certainly has propagandist benefits it is notoriously a conflation of Islam with fascism, and that’s just not intellectually honest, as the intellectual Right well knows. Refusing to be accurate in its description of what the form of governance in Iran actually is, our Right unintentionally contributes to the problem: We all become complacent about preposterous claims, and ‘Islamofascism’ is just such a preposterous claim. Using the inaccurate term ‘Islamofascism’ instead of the more accurate ‘theofascism’ has the unintended effect of the storied boy falsely crying “wolf” until no one paid him any more attention when the wlf actually appeared.
Russia is one of the critical keys to defeating theofascism in Iran. The Russians have blood-drenched years of history fighting fascism to death; no one is gong to tell them anything preposterous about fascism and be credible. Additionally, Russia’s southern borders include millions of Muslims. Again, no one is going to be credible by telling the Russians that Islam correlates with fascism, and yet that it precisely what the term ‘Islamofascism’ does.
We need Russia’s help in defeating Iran’s form of governance. We need to stop being wild-eyed optimists that enthusiastic elections in Iran represent anything other than sham democracy, firmly under police control. We need to let the Iranian people know that “never again” is not a hollow pledge made only to the Jews. And we need the Iranian people to be able to articulate accurately just what the problem is in Iran, and that the over-riding problem has nearly nothing to do with who is, or who is not, going to be their elected president.
The problem is that an evolved form of religious fascism governs in Iran, and the very last people on earth who should have access to the incinerating cleansing power of nuclear weapons are theofascists dedicated to absolutism and ‘purity.’
The term, ‘Theofascism,’ awakens the entire world to the true nature of the problem. Where are the neo-cons, Mr. Thomson, in accurately framing the debate on Iran? Are they leading the debate with intellectual honesty, or are they assisting in raising false hopes and generating somnolence by playing word games?
I came to this blog from Google News, but as soon as I saw the word, “neocon,” I almost immediately tuned out. The only people who use that term are far-left orthodox liberals who live in a mythological world where evil neocon dark lords lurk around every corner. I guess referring to someone as simply “conservative” doesn’t have enough sinister overtones to it. I think the better term would be pro-individualist, or anti-collectivist, or maybe anti-redistributionist. But of course, those terms are actually relevant, and using them might legitimize someone with a different point of view. Maybe liberals ought to be honest and simply refer to themselves as collectivists.
I’m a non-religious, pro-choice, economic and national security conservative who served proudly in the Air Force during the first Gulf War, so the term, neocon, doesn’t really fit, does it? But I supported military intervention in Iraq then, and I support it now. I guess to you, that makes me a neocon from hell. Polls consistently show that only about 20% of the country identify themselves as liberal or far-left. About 40% identify as conservative or moderate, and the rest identify as independent. Throwing around the term, neocon, will never change that ratio.
Don’t Be Fooled! This is a fake velvet revolution, a coup orchestrated by BBC, VOA propaganda machines, and their respective countries’ intelligence services on behalf of their boy Musavi-OK?
The goal is not to end the Islamic regime in Iran, but only to eliminate Khamenei and company. And call it good. That’s because backroom deals with the “reformists” took place with Obama and EU. The timing of this coup was purposefully timed to coincide with the ‘elections’.
The peoples’ revolutionary and freedom seeking passions are systematically and by design being channeled towards only one faction of the regime(Cano-Russian faction of Khamenei et al.), not the whole of the regime where that anger should be directed.
So in effect the west(Obama and EU) want to preserve the mullah regime in Iran minus Khamenei and minus Ahmadinejad.
This is a raw deal for Iranian people.
The “reformists” coup was staged by Musavi, Khatami, Jebhe Mosharekat, Yazdi(Nehzat Azadi), Rafsanjani, etc who have finally sold out completely to western appeasers and have been commissioned with a plan to topple Khamenei and Ahmadinejad(Cino-Russian faction within the regime).
The people are getting fooled once again, and will be shafted again if this ‘reformists’ coup goes on a second attack as they are planning to do on Monday in Tehran.
Khamenei and Ahmadinejad knew about the planned coup by Musavi/Khatami/Rafsanjani et al from the time they arrested Roxana Saberi(one of the moles of the Musavi/Khatami mafia),and also through intelligence they were handed by KGB–So they were prepared for it: they staged their own counter-coup by declaring Ahmadinejad the winner.
This is NOT a secular and genuine or democratic velvet revolution at all. This is manipulated street show of force in the in-fighting between the “two wings of the regime”(as Khamenei refers to ‘fundamentalists’ and ‘reformists’) which has finally come to a head.
The demonstrators in the streets are just tools and pawns in the hands of one or another faction. Notice the demonstrators have instructions NOT to destroy any of the regime’s head quarters, offices, property, or buildings. All they have been doing is set fire to tires, motorcycles, and run about chanting “Death to Dictator” meaning Khamenei.
No chants of “Death to Islamic Regime”, nor “Death to Islamic Republic”, nor “Death to Mullahs”, or “We want the Islamic regime to be up-rooted and replaced with a secular democratic government”– No, the west will not have that. The plan is to have a kinder, gentler(read western lap dogs in charge) Islamic Republic of Iran who actually follows orders from Washington and EU. The hell with democratic aspirations of Iranian people. The hell with Iran or what is good for Iran. This is Obama’s doctorine, he said it himself in Cairo that we cannot have democracy like in US everywhere in the world. So this, Iran, is the first test lab for his “the hell with them people” doctrine.
After all, Obama and EU figure Musavi and Khatami will be better than the alternative which is a war with Iran–perhaps a nuclear one. This coup by ‘reformists’ was always the plan by EU, but George W Bush did not allow it to go through. But now that Hussein Obama is practically part of the EU elite, it has been given the green light.
Obama figured with Musavi or Khatami in, he will also stop Israel from attacking Iran militarily since in the eyes of the world, there will not be any reason to attack a EU lap dog Iran under the ‘reformists’ and no Khamenei anymore.
But the Russians are not sitting on their hands, they prepared Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, so they are on top again for now. Obama was beaten badly by Khamenei and Nejad! But it could still turn- We will see in the coming days and weeks- They may actually go after assassinating Nejad and/or Khamenei at this point — and that will be that.
But Khamenei and Ahamdinejad could also resort to physical elimination of Khatami, Musavi, and/or Rafsanjani(about time)- Jury is still out on the final outcome.
But for now Obama/EU 0 – Russia/Khamenei 1.
Gotta get up preeetty early to beat them mullahs!
But as usual, people of Iran will come out the loser again no matter which faction in the regime finally wins, as they have been in the last 30-years.
The only solution for Iranians is to up-root and destroy the whole of this Islamic regime and replace it with a totally secular and democratic system like they had when Mossadegh was PM in early 50s.
The rest is Islamist EU and Obama-tic theatrics in the streets to see what they can get out of it.
Why did I know you’d censor my comment. It’s very simple…a liberal only agrees with free speech if it agrees with their viewpoint. So go ahead, censor away. And next time you look in the mirror, ask yourself if you really believe in the First Amendment…and if you can really handle any constructive criticism. The truth is, you don’t, and you can’t.
“…although it is heartening to see both Mr. Holbrooke and Mr. Ross…”
Since when have either of these two gentlemen been neo-conservatives? I consider them lefties who are not entirely hostile toward Israel. They are similar to Stanley Baldwin and Neville Chamberlain. Both Holbrooke and Ross normally advocate appeasement policies and think the radical Palestinians and Iranians are merely misunderstood victims. I am appalled that they hold “such prominent positions in Mr. Obama’s administration in dealing with the Middle East.”
Do you really want to accurately frame the debate on Iran and other diverse Muslim populations? If so, you must first deal with white guilt. Our postmodernist culture inhibits us from taking to task the misdeeds of those deemed “people of color.” We so-called disgusting white Westerners have supposedly crapped on the dark skinned victims of the world. Low lifes like ourselves should simply keep our mouths shut—except when we apologize to them for our past misdeeds. We are also obligated to constantly send them money.
Will Obama be on Ahmadibejad’s side of Iranian people?? Obama’s favorite dictator in trouble (do you remember how he was eager to talk to Ahamdinejad, now who is the fool?). Here is a great analysis by a well-known Iranian poet, sheema kalabsi:
It was supposed to be the perfect script. Mousavi’s victory was supposed to be hailed as the indication of Iranian rulers having “unclenched their fist”. It was supposed to be the perfect time for reconciliation with Mullahs. It was supposed to be the clearest sign yet of the success of Obama administration’s soft spoken approach towards the Muslim world. It was supposed to be the time for celebration of the Obama effect.
Ahmadinejad’s coup d’état changed the game altogether. It sent all the deal-makers and rapprochement enthusiasts of Washington think-tanks back to the drawing board.
The most important foreign policy implication is that the coup d’état government is dead serious about going nuclear. Any “grand-bargain” between Washington and Tehran under Mousavi would have led to concessions on Iran’s nuclear program. This would have been unacceptable for the Pasdaran commanders who will not be content with any less position than the one enjoyed by their Pakistani counterparts.
As the western governments and in particular US will be wrestling with the question of legitimacy versus negotiations, the coup d’état government will use the time to make as much progress as possible in its nuclear program. Unlike what many might think, the coup d’état government will in fact embrace doubts on its legitimacy to further complicate the issue and seize on it as an opportunity to blame the West for interference in Iranian domestic affairs. As the game continues, Israel will see no choice but to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. What will happen next is anyone’s guess.
This is all obviously conditioned on the success of the coup d’état which by no means is a given at this time. The arrests made by the coup d’état government yesterday has no significance other than a show of force. Rafsanjani is the only person who, as the head of the assembly of experts, has the authority to remove Khamenei from power. He has the will but the question is whether he has enough number of votes (i.e. enough support among clerics). Many believe that he is in Qom to make such assessment. Additionally, such high risk move has a chance of success only against the backdrop of mass dissatisfaction with the election results and at least some support from the armed and security forces.
A velvet change is underway. Whether it turns out to be a velvet revolution or velvet coup d’état remains to be seen.
http://www.zaneirani.blogspot.com/
According to a person close to Mousavi, the election result was clear that Mousavi has won. Mousavi contacted Khamenei’s office for declaring himself as the winner. Khamenei did not object with this result and stated he is fine with him to be declared the winner.
Shortly after number of Revolutionary Guard leadership visited Khamenei and stated that they will not allow this and he must endorse and support Ahmadinejad as the winner.
He did so after being confronted by RG leadership. It is possible that Khamenei himself is a hostage in this process by the few military forces in Iran.
Two major countries that have recognized Ahmadinejad as the new president of Iran are Israel and Russia, as well as Chavez sending his congratulation to Ahmadinejad.
Per news releases, Ahmadinejad and Putin plan to have a face-to-face meeting in the coming days. Weeks ago Israel president and their leadership were complaining about lack of freedom in Iran. Now, SHAMEFULLY, and BLINDLY looking like they know NOTHING is happening in Iran they say Ahmadinejad is the president!!! So it is no wonder I maintain my position that Ahmadinejad is clearly endorsed and represent Israel’s interest in Iran.
One Palestinian and One Yemeni national captured by people in Tehran ((This is from a comment on my blog))
This is what ALIREZA commented about:
this explains everything, an interview with Mousavi poeple..please read:
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/june/14//thehran-a-political-coup.html
“It is a tempered response we need, not some gun-slinger’s reaction as Bush II would have provided.” In true BS fashion, our pal Hawk deliberately ignores the fact that Bush did and said damned near nothing during his eight years of opportunity. “It is tempered response we need.” Uh-huh. For once I’d settle for a response to the mullacracy that showed a whiff of real temper. More pablum… we don’t need.
Curious that “Saahel Manesh” and “Ira Zad” posted nearly identical comments… It’s almost like they were reciting their talking points.
Reports have it that IRGC blocked a major highway west of Tehran for the fear of arms being smuggled into the city from Kurdish areas of Iran. True or not, I dont know but given the recent announcement of support from Kurdish parties for the rest of the country, it is believable.
The Usurper won’t help bring down Ahmadamnutjob. If anything he will ask for help with hte 2010 elections, which the Democrats MUST win to avoid the Usurper being removed fron the office he holds illegally.
And if he says something about rigged elections, Minnesota is much closer then Iran. Why go half way around the world when you can drive a little ways up I94 and find voting precincts with more votes then voters.
I know the standard for a Socialist election is 100$ turnout with 99% going to the winner, but not even Castro got more then 100% of the voters out to vote. Am I the only one that finds that ODD? I know the Minnesota Supreme Court didn’t, which says all that needs to be said about the state of the Judiciary in Minnesota.
Before we go ballistic of the mote in Irans eye, we need to deal with the log in ours.
What really twits my G-string is that the USA has the technological capability to have fair, honest and inclusive elections. Where is the political will to make that happen? Mr. Steele, are you listening? Are your eyes open?
Does it really matter what OUR response to this is?
One of two things will happen here.
Either the protests will be tamped down with only “minor” rebellion on the part of the Iranian citzens,or
They will learn to fight.
It will depend on two things
How much they feel that their will as a “democracy” is being truly expressed,or repressed,and how much they are willing or able to push back.
Can we guess? Do we know how far they are wiling & able to take it?
Time will tell I guess. I hope for the Iranians sake they are able to complete what they have started. But I seriously worry that the drive and ability are not there.
So anyway, Obama, Benji, Osama and Ahamadamnutjob decide to sit down and talk everything out. They meet on top of the highest mountain in the Sinai.
Things are not going all that well when Osama decides to break the logjam. He stands up, walks over to the cliff and ssys, ‘You guys don’t think I’m serious. I am willing to die for Allah.” Then he screams “Allah Akabar” and jumps off the cliff. The other look at each other and grimace. Ahamadamnutjob jumps up and says, “My faith is a strong as anyone’s.” Then he shouts ‘For Iran, Allah Akabar” and throws his self off the mountain. Obama and Benji go over and stand at the edge of the abyss, watching them fall ( It’s a looooooooooong ways down). Benji say, “Jews are as strong as Muslims. For Israel” and pushes Obama off the cliff.
MOUSAVI HAS A NEW SITE…HE IS CALLING FOR DEMOSTRATION MONDAY:
HERE IS THE LINK:
http://sites.google.com/site/mousavi1388/
“…but this is much worse.”
President George H. W. Bush is something of a feckless “moderate” Republican—but he still believes in American exceptionalism. We are the good guys in his book! Barack Obama, on the other hand, is a self-hating American. This essentially means that he is twice as bad as Bush 41. Moreover, Obama possesses next to zilch experience while the first President Bush was once the Director of the CIA and vice-president for eight years. It’s only going to get worse. Obama is a shallow and poorly read man, and he lacks the time to get his act together. And if he resigns, we get the weird and apparently half crazy Joe Biden as his replacement….and then Nancy Pelosi. Sigh, we are royally screwed. Obama is the nation’s leader only because of white guilt. Western Civilization cannot survive unless we overcome this irrational sense of obligation to the dark skinned thugs of the Earth.
Events in Iran complicate Obama’s plans for the Middle East
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/events-in-iran-complicate-obamas-plans.html
frieda,
I agree with Sheema’s comments except that there was a Coup followed by a Counter-Coup: the first Coup d’etats was by Musavi/Rafsanjani/Khatami who tried to remove “Velaayat Faghih”(Khamenei) under the guise of ‘elections’- And all 3 are connected to EU pro-Islamist elite, and yes Obama appears to have made a deal with EU on this since any regime headed by Musavi will immediately stop the nuclear projects.
What happened next was Khamenei/Ahmadinejad(whos ome say knew about teh Coup plan thru KGB) conducted a Counter Coup d’etats to defeat the EU/Obama coup by altering the numbers in favor of Ahmadinejad.
The west wants the easy way out without war: to preserve the Islamic regime moins Khamenei moins Ahmadinejad, and will install and support a “new improved Islamic regime” with their own lapdogs on top and no one else(i.e.; no more Russian/Chinese faction, only EU/US faction in charge.)
Long time CIA operatives liek Ibrahim Yazdi are already going around (in Malaysia now) saying they want to abolish “Velaayat Fgahih”, meaning remove Khamenei.
This will also inevitably lead to the decades long plan of the break up of Iran into “Iranestans” along ethnic lines down the road which was the basic reason this Islamic regime was brought into power in 1979 in the first place.
The majority of the Iranian people want a secular democracy. So basically, EU and Obama are condemning Iranians to more of the same albeit without Khamenei for another round. Same Islamist swine but the western kind this time
One thing is for certain, Musavi has set a trap for the other side in calling for demonstrations tomorrow in Tehran; if Ahamdinejad overreact by calling in the Baseej to shoot people, and if anyone dies– It will be the beginning of a viscous cycle that no one can predict what it will end up in.
The other thing that is for certain is that Ahmadinejad, being a falange fascist murderer himself(like Musavi), will not just sit idly by on his hands and do nothing about this. You can bet he will fight to the last drop with all he’s got to defeat Musavi/Khatami/Rafsanjani Mafia triangle.
:)
Yeah, rotten and ancient corpses of the same Islamist regime 25-years ago are now suddenly ‘intellectuals’ and ‘reformists’ after they pass thru BBC’s make-up factory!
So no easy way for MI5 this time around
And I dont care how much Ayatollah BBC and VOA harp about how wonderful Musavi and his wife are either!
If things get out of hand, assassinations by the opposing faction of the other factions leaders may also be in the cards.
But the most likely, and the most innocuous scenario will likely be an intervention by Khamenei with a stern public and/or private warning by Khamenei to Musavi to make him accept the “results” of the elections “or else”, and that will be the end of that for now.
:):)
Esxcept that if Ahamdinejad is entrenched in power, he will surely go after the triangle mentioned above and will try to punish and prosecute all 3 of them and whomever helped them(Islamic Stalinist internal enemies purges to come)
Note/trivia: Khamenei and Mir Hossein Musavi Khameneh(his full name) are from the same town in Iran(town of Khameneh in northwest), and they are also far relatives by inter-marriages.
The regime is trying to kill the people.
So the people had better start killing the enforcers of the regime, and then move on to the regime itself.
If millions and milliions take to the streets, and don’t give in, they’ll win.
If they let themselves get bludgeoned back into their hole, then they’ll guarantee themselves a nuclear exchange with the Israelis, when the satanic mullahs finally make good on their genocidal annihlationism.
Somebody is going to have to die.
Two visions are at war, and one must crush the other. Either the hopes and prayers of the people will prevail, or the satanic dark vision of the mullahs.
The calculus is relatively straight forward.
So the Iranians had better get on with killing the police, the various “guards,” the foreigners, all the usual cast of characters.
And one more thing, let’s cease hearing about Mousavi. He was with the original whacked out Ayatollah, and supported him. He was approved by the present religious ruling council.
He’s one of them.
If this is to be a “revolution,” then let it be a real, genuine, legitimate, bona fide REVOLUTION.
Away with all the Ayatollahs, the mullahs, and their stooges, and Mousavi is one of the latter.
Dan,
the problem is just that, people are going and acting on emotions again (just like in 1979)–they have had it with Theofascism and they think this rotting wash-out old corpse Khomeinist Islamist terrorist relic of 25-years ago who sat by Khomeini and licked his boots and performed tricks for him is now somehow a rescuer and a “reformist”!!
Such are the powers of propoganda outlets like BBC and VOA in creating fake “opposition” to derial and divert a genuine uprising back into the system so that it won’t pose a danger to the regime.
It’s a well proven method of social control and system survival, the Chinese commies used it so many times and they’re still around safe and sound.
The problem is it is NOT a “real, genuine, legitimate, bona fide REVOLUTION” to use your words. The west is supporting Mousavi to unseat Khamenei and Nejad, so they won’t have to go to war with Iran over the nukes, and also use it(Mousavi election) to stop Israel from doing the same. Lazy way out, and the hell with secular democracy in Iran!
So you can pretty much do the math there, and you will still get the same result: This ain’t it. If anything this is a gambit to actually prolong the Islamic regime under a new guise and new obedient to the west leadership(eneter Mousavi/Khatami/Rafsanjani trio) again.
The losers will–as usual–be Iranian people. Victim of their own short-sightedness, inaction which led to foreigners plotting the next course for them and shoving it down their throats as ‘mmmm good!”.
By the way, that ‘green’ in Mousavi’s camp is a truly nauseating green, close to …well it’s an Islamic green– figures.
So what if mousavi is one of “them”. It is not about Mousavi.
It is true that if Khamenei declared Mousavi winner not much would have changed. But now it is different. People really want change and they are really against Ahmadinejad. And if it won’t fizzle, and it seems it will not then maybe, just maybe, there will be some major changes.
There was major demonstration in Tehran today – around 1 mln people was there.
As for now mousavi is calling for general strike tomorrow, i.e. Tuesday
Cell phones are out of order
Internet is very slow.
There are first casualties
Basiji building in tehran is on fire
there are rumours that some Lebanese are helping basiji and police.
Casualties in Isfahan – several people got killed in protests. Police very brutal over there.
Twitter is blocked but Iranians go around it and still tweet.
Silence from US government.
1 million is a true exaggeration by France news agency and the rest of EU liek Ayatollah BBC who are behind the Mousavi/Rafsanjani/Khatami gang of three.
Let’s get real, this is a Green Coup by EU thru their boy Mousavi.
People are –as usual– getting caught in between the 2 factions within the regime.
The slogans are focusing & revolving on ‘one point’ only: “Death to Dictator”– No slogans of “Death to Islamic regime”, or “Long Live secular Democracy and civil liberties” No! Just let’s get rid of Khamenei and Nejad, and then we will have a new, improved swine with western lipstick on headed by our own boys the lapdog trio above.
That’s an evil plan EU and Obama has agreed on to do to Iran.
The crowd has got to move beyond Mousavi, otherwise it could easily morph into more of the same. Were Mousavi enstalled, would anything really change?
No, not much.
This has got to evolve into a “string up the mullahs” event.
This has got to be understood for what it is. Because if the mullahs remain in power after millions took to the streets against them, then the mullahs will be IMMEASURABLY STRENGTHENED afterwards.
This has now crossed an Iranian Rubicon, and either the mullahs will be hunted down by mobs intent on their blood, or the mullahs will turn on the people with a will and a vengance. Either way, people are going to die, and probably in droves.
Just make sure the people dying are the thugs, the evildoers, the tyrants, the religious fanatics.
Why don’t we talk about what’s going *right* in the Middle East? How about that defeat for Hezbollah in Lebanon? Goes to show what Saudi dollars can do! And speaking of our allies and occasional attackers, how *is* democracy going in Saudi Arabia? Religious tolerance? Treatment of women? Oh, I forgot: they’re way behind Iran in every regard.
Dan;
You said :”Because if the mullahs remain in power after millions took to the streets against them, then the mullahs will be IMMEASURABLY STRENGTHENED afterwards.”
That is EXACTLY their plan, and that’s why they chose Mousavi to have this ridiculous green fake velvet revolution, so a real one does not happen for another 30-years. talk about a long insurance policy they just bought for themselves by orchetrating this gambit!
These riots are just hog wash, unless as you say, the people turn it around, away from Mousavi and the regime, and evolve it into a mass uprising against religion in government and for democracy. And look for solutions OUTSIDE this regime, not INSIDE of it!
But no dice on that so far- my prediction is it will fizzle out or be snuffed by the regime, either way the real opposition will look really bad for decades to come, and the regime will have a big smile on its face.
Nicely done mullahs!
It’s not “hogwash,” because such events often do morph from what started them.
The Czar was removed via bread riots in a bleak winter. That’s how it all began, with women.
But the movement against the regime has got to go beyond “non-violence.” The family members of the paramilitary thugs need to be grabbed. If the thugs enter the homes of the opposition to beat them to a pulp, then the movement against the regime has got to respond in kind, and up the ante.
There is going to be blood, rivers of it. And it’s going to be shed by the regime if they survive, for they’ll whisk people off the streets or out of their homes, haul them off to some private place, and exact a brutal revenge for what’s gone on. The opposition has got to understand that the regime is playing for keeps, and it’s positively counter-productive to continue to play the adolescent game of non-violence.
Dan;
The “opposition” as you call it may be the regime itself. They have now manufactured “opposition” out of an old, grey Khomeinist called Mousavi. And the people, so far have fallen for it and seem to be going for that gambit.
This is classic society control and a strategy by the regime to let the people blow some steam without the regime being targeted. This way they can rest assured for another 30-years in power after it’s all over.
If you look at the slogans, none are calling for an end to the Islamic Republic regime. No. Instead, the slogans revolve around ‘Kill the Czar’(Khamenei). No shouts in favor of a secular democracy, no slogans commemorating Dr. Mossadegh(secular nationalist PM in early 50′s), no shouts demanding civil and social liberties. Nothing. Just “Death to Dictator” and such! Hello? What’s wrong with this picture people?
This riot is being directed towards and aimed at – not the regime itself – but only to get rid of one person and his gang: Khamenei.
With the rioters’ hero Mousavi himself being a known radical Islamist -turned ‘reformist’ by BBC propoganda- element from the 80s. He was one of the founders of Hezbollah(see Wikepedia).
So, You gotta admit, this doesn’t look like, sound like, or feel like a genuine “revolution”.
I hope you’re right and it does morph into a real revoluton which will and must target the whole of the regime itself. But I somehow have the feeling that it is being orchestrated from outside of Iran(read Brezhinski and gang) to achieve just a change of guards in IRI and nothing more.
Just imagine how stronger the regime will come out of this after the riots are over.
But as I said, I hope I am wrong.
As yet, the mobs are still trying to find their “sea legs” so to speak.
Just a few days ago, they never expected this, and obviously, weren’t prepared for it. You might be expecting too much, too soon. Give it a few more days, and let’s see what the crowd is demanding. Every hour that this goes on, is an hour where they’re able to organize, and thus their demands will rise, their confidence increase, and their thirst for the blood of their enemies intensify.
This thing has to be crushed soon, or it won’t be crushed at all.
I’ve seen pictures of people beating the thug policemen, so it’s turning in the right direction. The whole non-violence thing only works against certain regimes, but against this regime, a posture of non-violence is positively adolescent.
We’ll see.
But I don’t think this is an orchestration of the regime, because it’s way too serious for that.
Dan;
You may be right that I am expecting too much too soon – I’ve been known to be impatient in such instances- but then again we have all waited 30-years for something-anything- to break loose, so I guess I want things to evolve faster from just internal regime goons change of guards to real fundamental demands of regime change and for the crowd to start looking for solutions outside the regime, not inside of it.
I think it was and is partly orchestration — by both the regime ‘reformist’ faction as well as their western backers in EU and now in the White House–, but you’re right they did not expect it to mushroom like this most likely, and anything could happen as the law of probability takes over the planned event.
It is crucial for the secular democratic opposition inside and outside Iran
to interject their demands onto the movement NOW; Reza Pahlavi, National Front of Iran, and all the rest of the secular democrats should join hands and make themselves present in this uprising and start leading this huge anger & energy towards regime change, not just for the lame “Mousavi in, Nejad and Khamenei out” thing that we are seeing now.
Let’s wait & see what if anything this grows into. I am skeptical, but crowds are often unpredictable.
As a women and single mom it sickens me to see what is happening in Iran. Someday women will be a force to contend with in that country and it will be soon than everyone thinks.
I really hope that someday we can finally reach some understanding with Iran and also others on the middle east. we both feel that how the other one lives is wrong when what we really should be doing is just accepting how the other culture lives and leave others alone unless they are causing harm to someone else.
oh please, stephen dave, they are killing americans every day, does that count as “causing harm”? sheesh
Yes that does count as causing harm. I am also completely aware that they are killing Americans…I am a former service member and my squadron was attacked by regimes like this when I did my tour in Saudi Arabia (Khobar Towers June 1996, look it up). I also do not agree with or endorse in any way the current regime that is in place in Iran. All I was saying was that my hope is for a better tomorrow without forgetting the past. Try not to be so quick to misinterpret someones comments just so you can start a flame war. I am all about being able to have grown up discussions, that is why I posted on this site. Is there something wrong with trying to have a positive outlook on the future?
nothing wrong with positive thinking, to be sure. tks.
http://www.filmmetro.com/user/yoansnider24