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CIA Genius Tells Us Not to Worry About Iran

February 7th, 2009 - 5:16 pm

Ever wonder where CIA gets its nutty ideas about the world?  This story helps, maybe.  There’s a genius with the colorful name of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, described by AFP (French reportage alert!) as an “advisor” to CIA and DoD, who boasts a 90 percent accuracy rate on predictions based on his “gaming and computer model.”  Maybe AFP means “computerized gaming model,” but hey, I’m just telling you what they say.

So Monsieur Bueno de Mesquita assures us that Iran won’t actually build any bombs, that religion (and therefore religious leaders) are on the decline, and that if you just wait a while, everything will be cool

By the start of next year, Iran will stabilize its nuclear program at a point where it makes enough weapons-grade fuel to build national pride by showing it can, but not enough to actually produce a bomb, the model predicts.

The influence of religious leaders is projected to slide while that of “moneyed interests” such as bankers and oil producers rises.

“Ahmadinejad is on the way down,” Bueno de Mesquita told a Technology, Entertainment, Design Conference audience while describing how the outcomes of complex negotiations are predictable. “His clout is dropping.”

Well that’s a relief.  I’m sure Langley’s told Obama that we can stop worrying about the Iranian bomb, and get ready for a new era.  No doubt Hillary is looking down the list of Democratic donors from banks and oil companies so she can send some special envoys to negotiate with Iran’s new rulers.

Hey, don’t laugh.  Ninety per cent is a hell of a number.  I’m sure that Mr. Bueno de Mesquita has put his money where his computer model is, and is now one of the richest men in America.  I wish AFP had told us…

AFP doesn’t, but here’s a story that does indeed verify that he’s made some accurate predictions, and has charged (and collected) some impressive fees.  And it tells us that he’s at the Hoover Institution and at NYU’s Political Science Department.

It also claims that Bueno de Mesquita predicted the rise of Rafsanjani at a time when nobody had heard of him.  That’s not quite right;  Rafsanjani was Speaker of Parliament, and one of Khomeini’s closest advisers.  And if I remember correctly, Khamenei (who, according to the article, was equally unknown and who Bueno de Mesquita forecast would rise to power) was president.

However, I’m willing to take a big risk and bet that Iran will build or acquire an atomic bomb.  Call me crazy.

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