CIA Genius Tells Us Not to Worry About Iran
Ever wonder where CIA gets its nutty ideas about the world? This story helps, maybe. There’s a genius with the colorful name of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, described by AFP (French reportage alert!) as an “advisor” to CIA and DoD, who boasts a 90 percent accuracy rate on predictions based on his “gaming and computer model.” Maybe AFP means “computerized gaming model,” but hey, I’m just telling you what they say.
So Monsieur Bueno de Mesquita assures us that Iran won’t actually build any bombs, that religion (and therefore religious leaders) are on the decline, and that if you just wait a while, everything will be cool
By the start of next year, Iran will stabilize its nuclear program at a point where it makes enough weapons-grade fuel to build national pride by showing it can, but not enough to actually produce a bomb, the model predicts.
The influence of religious leaders is projected to slide while that of “moneyed interests” such as bankers and oil producers rises.
“Ahmadinejad is on the way down,” Bueno de Mesquita told a Technology, Entertainment, Design Conference audience while describing how the outcomes of complex negotiations are predictable. “His clout is dropping.”
Well that’s a relief. I’m sure Langley’s told Obama that we can stop worrying about the Iranian bomb, and get ready for a new era. No doubt Hillary is looking down the list of Democratic donors from banks and oil companies so she can send some special envoys to negotiate with Iran’s new rulers.
Hey, don’t laugh. Ninety per cent is a hell of a number. I’m sure that Mr. Bueno de Mesquita has put his money where his computer model is, and is now one of the richest men in America. I wish AFP had told us…
AFP doesn’t, but here’s a story that does indeed verify that he’s made some accurate predictions, and has charged (and collected) some impressive fees. And it tells us that he’s at the Hoover Institution and at NYU’s Political Science Department.
It also claims that Bueno de Mesquita predicted the rise of Rafsanjani at a time when nobody had heard of him. That’s not quite right; Rafsanjani was Speaker of Parliament, and one of Khomeini’s closest advisers. And if I remember correctly, Khamenei (who, according to the article, was equally unknown and who Bueno de Mesquita forecast would rise to power) was president.
However, I’m willing to take a big risk and bet that Iran will build or acquire an atomic bomb. Call me crazy.
Okay here I go: “Dismantle CIA” along with the UN.
Over relying on computer models is foolish. Intrinsically, they cannot be infallible. There is no way to cover all the bases. Ignoring even one variable may invalidate their results. You simply cannot confidently predict the future behavior of human beings. At the very best, you may make a decent guess. Individuals possess free will. They can always surprise you in one way or another.
Well Mike, after the Iranians turn Tel Aviv into a radioactive waste land, Mr. BM will have to shrug his shoulders and mark it off as part of the 5% he wasn’t right about. That should make the Israelis feel better.
I think the CIA has been useless for many many years. It probably started to go under when the WWII military OSS operatives began fading away and were replaced with pin heads from prestigious universities. Poindexter like analysis of wheat production in the Ukraine was deemed to be more valuable than developing enemy snitches.
I’ll start believing the Iranians are going to loosen up when I start seeing young Iranian women wearing short-shorts in public.
Anyway you look at it, the Iran situation is not looking good for those who seek regime change.
Internal resistance or rebellion within Iran is virtually non-existent. Externals, i.e. US, : Biden and Kerry, Obama… who itch to strike the “Grand Bargain” with the mullahs like yesterday! Shall I say more?
Our only hope is Netanyahu…
The us has no idea who is who when it comes to Iran.
Look at this and cry:
http://www.iranian.com/main/2009/jan/vali-nasr
Vali Nasr is in kahoots with the regime in Tehran; he, along with Trita Parsi, Reza Takyeh, and MirAhmadi are all regime propagandists and media goons in the western media.
In fact, Vali Nasr’s father was(in Iran under the Shah)and still is an Islamist professor.
The fact that he has –purportedly–been given a post in the Obama/Holbrook gambit foreign policy is a freaking travesty! Goes to show how much Hussein Obama is willing to bend overt and get reamed by the IR of Terror in Tehran. If they could only make the bargain with them…!
I like this comment by one of the readers in the link above:
” All you need to do is to google Vali nasr articles and you will soon find that his close relation to the Islamic republic.
Long Live Iran
Down with islamic republic ”
I agree whole heartedly!
ok ok, so this ninny would have to claim he has put every single possible factor anyone could imagine into this computer of his in order get an accurate prediction as to what these opium-addicted mullahs will do (and the amount of opium consumed would also be one of the input factors, mind you).
Therefore, he also has to put in there Obama’s positions on Iran. I have watched Obama closely and don’t think he has a position on Iran so, if Obama doesn’t know, how does this “advisor” know?
My computer predicts this “advisor” is an imbecile.
And the computer models would no doubt have suggested that Japan would not attack the United States in 1941 because it was irrational that it would do so, based on all the material factors. But computer models and analysis focused on intentions imperfectly model decisions based on purely political calculations, because can never certainly and accurately model all variables.
The religious dimension here (the belief of the leadership in Iran in the reappearance of the 12th Imam) makes Iran even harder to forecast in this way, leaving us, for our own security, in the position of having to look more at capabilities.
Speaking of capabilities: your article in today’s WSJ was most excellent. Question on the rocket. You (and everybody else I read, ID the rocket as a “Safir.” The pictures of the rocket and satellite pre-launch carried in the NYT and other places don’t look much like earlier pics of the Safir (see among other places, the Wikipedia article on the Safir). Yes, yes, I know, consider the source. But it is interesting. I thought the NYT pic of the Safir/Omid combo looked wierdly like an old US Redstone…
An interesting contrast between Dr. Ledeen’s WSJ Op-Ed today and Cohen’s column in the NYT; regime change in Iran vs. no regime change.
So, with Holbrooke getting the Afghan/Pakistan portfolio, and Mitchell getting the Israel/Palestine portfolio, who will President Obama give the Iran portfolio? To a regime changer, or not?
If Mr. Khatami is serious about “freedom” as the foundational principle of his candidacy to be president of Iran, and he would like to avoid a regime change in religious democratic governance while adopting a regime change in the governing philosophy, someone suggest to him that he adopt ‘Persian Blue’ as the color for his version of a “velvet revolution” for Iranian freedom.
But then recall, when asked why his reform movement failed during his years as President of the Iranian government, he replied that the reform movement had tried to do too much too soon. A sea of Persian Blue flags marching in the streets of Tehran might not be too much too soon, and would send a powerful message to all of the voters in Iran.
Don’t pin your hopes on Euro-mullah freemason mullah Khatami with ties to Germany and Austria to bring “freedom” to Iran or anywhere else for that matter. Khatami is the stooge of the old school, traditional, pro-Islamist European political elite, e.g., Jack Straw who had a specially warm spot in his heart for the IR of Terror in Tehran.
Changing colors or into sheep’s clothing, or putting lipstick on the pig of Islamic Republid of Turds of Tehran won’t solve anything.
You can’t love evil, you can’t talk to evil, you can only destroy evil.
Netanyahu is the only hope regime-changers may have left, if and when he strikes IR’s nuke sites.
I wonder why no one in US government tell Khomeinists what is your deal with 1953 issue and Mossadegh? Khomeinists hate Mossadegh. A Street was named after him during the first days of 79 Revolt. However, Khomeinie ordered removal of his name. We all know there are few streets named after well known terrorists in Iran, like Stamboli who assassinated Sadat. While Khomeinist never liked Mossadegh, they use the issue to score points with US, and rather successfully. They forced Madam Albright to apologize for the event. Also notice these days, due to the fact that situation in Iran is real tense and people are really fed up, you hear Khomeinists willingness to enter into a dialogue with US. Yesterday it was Lari-Jani who mentioned his readiness to start a dialogue with the US, and today it was Ahmadi-Nejad who mentioned the same. If nothing else, Khomeinists fully realize no one cares about democracy and freedom and the fact that IRI have violated all human rights and rules against its people. IRI knows, US government is eager to compromise all its principles, if IRI agrees to enter into a dialogue with it. At least this is the feeling of majority of the Iranian people. The people believe, if US wanted to stop spread of violence and terrorism, they would have stop IRI long time ago, like in Regan era, when Hezbolah was just established as a terrorist organization.
He’s dead, right?
>Khamenei
OK. You’re crazy.
Like a fox.
Aren’t annoying guys like you supposed to be unceremoniously retired? I mean, come on, Michael. They’ve got computer models. Computer models! Thinking is overrated, outmoded and arcane. Read the memo.
Crazy old man.
Model shmodel. The point is as you’ve said… Iran is what? 12 hours or so from acquiring a bomb, willing sources considered.
Recent events show that Saddam too, had a nuke programme in place. That it wasn’t going anywhere quickly wasn’t the issue. He was also squirreling away UN aid money to buy what he couldn’t produce. Iran may be in far better shape to actually purchase something, if it hasn’t already made the agreements or even taken delivery on-board a sub. Spay-paint a new badge on the thing(s) and Presto! A big “success story” for the Regime.
I am sorry to give this irrelevant link here but I think it is interesting that foreign media don’t like to show the real motive for many people to take part in pro-government rallies in Iran. These are real pictures from the rally in Tehran yesterday where Ahmadinezhad answered Mr Hussain Obama’s invitation to negotiations. The boxes and bags seen in the hands of the people are full of free foodstuffs distributed “generously” by mullahs. They even gave free packs of 50 and 100 CD’s to the “supporters” of the Islamic revolution.
Can anyone show these pictures to Mr Hussain please?
Sorry.I forgot to put the link.
http://yozpalangh.wordpress.com/2009/02/10/22-bahman-1387
Duoist,
As Ira Zad mentioned its waste of time to get your hopes up for Khatami.
Here is a report I found on his involvement to eliminate the opposition.
http://www.marzeporgohar.org/en/content/khatami-declares-president-opposition-group-releases-documents-tying-him-serial-murders
There are no reforms possible in the IR system. The only way to assure democracy and secularism is to change the regime.
Unfortunately the previous and the current administation seems to looking for a shortcut. Ask Mr.Ledeen, there are none!
People here don’t seem to understand that Iran has not done anything to the United States. Iran is simply trying to exert its influence over the region, and its dominance in the region just like the United States is.
Its not a crime to exert your influence, its not just a tactic reserved solely for the United states.
The so called “Iranians” that post on this site, like Ira Zad ( which is not even a persian name) or Kourosh are delusional. They would rather see the collapse of their own country, and the killing of their own people because they don’t agree with the revolution. Ira Zad, deal with it, the revolution was brought on by the people of Iran. You don’t like it, don’t come to Iran. but don’t sit there on top of your high perched seat and spread your bs.
Iran will have its nuclear technology, and will prosper because of it. Not everyone has to be a US surrogate.
sam – STFU!!
The biggest enermy of the Iranian people is the Islamic Republic invading Iran.
Ira Zad,
You are not Iranian, so please tell us all where you are really from and why you are so anti Iranian.
Its interesting that this blog, and Mr. Ledeen in general have such contempt for a country whose regime was introduced by the people.
Maybe Mr. Ledeen would like iran better if it was a surrogate state like Jordan or Egypt. We will never know, because he won’t respond to any posts.
uh oh, “french reportage alert” is of the same gabarit like “Apostrophe programmée”
got to think that this is a real game, that we call the “cat and the mouse” or “who looses, wins”, who tell the truth ??? not Iran, not America, not AfP, cuz of the blurred infos, and not Mr Ledeem, that already visited the backyards, though the buffoon with his computer may be right, “Ahmadinejad is on the way down”, I already have read that on an iranian resistance site, his representation time is coming to end, some in the divin aeropage of Teheran have “computerized a new gaming model” in their emotional mind !!!
so we might regret the puppet show soon
as far as the “bomb” it’s the “Arlesienne”, one talk about her, but we never see her, it’s a scenario with different possible aftermaths, anyway Iran’ll get it one day or another (Pakistan has it, and she isn’t a trustful partner too), nonetheless, the new relations with America will have to be defined before, and, up to now, none of the challengers wants to loose the set, so the bets are opened !!!
and Azadandish is the real reporter there !!!
Be Cool? Nuclear Iran = Game Over!
Once again, just as Persians/Iranians did the right thing in saving Jews through lady Esther, it looks like U.S. is also looking into supplying its forces in Afghanistan through Iran!!! This just came out from NY Times.
I sense Iran for sure will support this plan; given the displeasure they have with Taleban. Ultimately, it will be clear that Iran and U.S. are natural allies, no matter how many flags are burned and how often the neocons keep yelling FIRE…FIRE!!! Happy St. Esther Day. Here is the NY Times article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/washington/12military.html?_r=1
So, I am reading a lot of glib and pithy comments here. But it doesn’t sound to me like any of you have done any sort of background research on this buy — at least, not of the *substantive* kind. Even worse, almost all of you seem to know nothing about Iran, much less de Mesquita. This site has the patina of a right wingnut. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a subscriber to any pat ideological bent. But you people…I mean to say, you people are the kind of people that get us into wars, not the kind of people that keep us out of them.
Cheers.
Oh, and that comment that Vali Nasr is in kahoots with the regime in Tehran? That is a bald-faced lie. Ira Zad is either a plant or an idiot. Nasr was one of my professors at the Naval Postgraduate School not too long ago. I hesitate to state my credentials here, lest I be seen cavorting with fools….
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