I’m talking about Iran, of course. Here Robert Fox of The Guardian looks at the mullahs’ endless flipflops about nukes, negotiations, and so forth. His bottom line is that they are too tricky by half, and they are quite possibly headed down the same suicidal road as Saddam took when he kept sticking his finger in Western eyes and noses. Fox is certainly no advocate of military action against Iran, but he is smart and realistic enough to know that military action happens, and as often as not it happens because of confusions, suspicion and ambiguity, rather than because of strategic calculation.
Not that strategic calculation is irrelevant. Peter Brookes takes a clear-eyed look at the recent Iranian missile show, and concludes that it was staged (and by now everyone’s seen Charles Johnson’s pictures that suggest the mullahs photoshopped at least some of their images of the missiles) for several reasons, from driving up oil prices to pounding their chests for the benefit of domestic and regional audiences, to fending off possible attacks from us or the Israelis.
All that “makes sense.” The Iranians atop that unhappy country have every reason to believe that they are immune to attack for the next many months, and so they use all the tools at their disposal to buy time for all their nefarious purposes: develop the bomb and related delivery systems, increase the repression of the Iranian people, and move terrorists out of Iraq, where they have been decisively defeated.
But the boy who cried wolf came to an unhappy end, as in the case of Saddam Hussein.
Dr Ledeen,
Any idea about :
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5415
please?
Sorry. The direct link is :
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1356
No missile launch is going to save their butts from the wrath of Iranian people and those nations they constantly threaten.
Charles Johnson did not expose the picture
Read this thread who really exposed it
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=137475&page=4
So long as Islamofascist appeasers like Condi Rice, timid tom weary ready-to-retire guys like Bob Gates, and lackluster rudderless Bush are running our Iran policy, nothing will happen to the Tehran regime. As it has not in the past 7.5 years. Oh wait, something did happen to the Islamic Republic of Terror in Iran: they got more powerful under Bush/Rice.
Unless, someone, somewhere does something that counts, and soon, nothing will happen from inside Iran. But, where is the resolve, where is the leadership, and frankly: where are the stones?
Attacks by Israel or U.S. are ALL NONSENSE. I recommend reading this article. Simply skip the first half that covers most of the things you already know. But the 2nd half gets to the reasons and analysis of WHY such an attack will not take place as along as adults are handling U.S. policies. Here is the link:
http://www.antiwar.com/engelhardt/?articleid=13113
While back I also wrote my objection on STUPIDITY of U.S. government funding democratic movements in Iran. This article also makes it clear that those who make such funding are pursuing to DESTROY any sign of REAL grassroot movements in Iran that could someday stand against Tehran’s regime. So I consider ANY SUCH funding is SOLELY INTENDED to DESTROY Iranian democracy movements. There is no other creative ways to DESTROY such movements but making them appear that they are being supported and funded by phony, CORRUPTED funding system in this administration. Here is the link:
http://www.pubrecord.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=191
In nature some creatures put on a big display to fend off predators. Iran is acting like such a creature. But then such creatures do not instigate possible predators. Iran’s missile show caused the oil to spike just when prices were headed south. That’s the big shame. Haven’t we seen this play before? Yup, and it’s a yawner. Now if we could strap a few oil speculators to Iran’s missiles maybe prices would go down and stay down.
If France’s Sarkozy could get Syria to tilt westward then Iran would be in real trouble. It’s influence would be cut in half in the ME basically putting Iran back in its cage. But we’ve seen Syrian stories end up as the same old song and dance. Good luck Sarkozy.
I’m not sure why photoshopping some missiles is a big deal. Other than the usual “gotcha!” which is satisfying for the Internet as fact-checkers, does anyone suggest Iran can’t rain missiles down on Tel Aviv, albeit without laser-guided or GPS precision? I worry that some people are reading too much into the fakery. Probably just saving missiles for later use.
CNN, AP, and others said :
“U.S. Envoy ( Mr Burns) will attend 5+1 Meeting with Iran Nuke Negotiator”.
Congratulations to the US policy makers.
I propose Ms Rice to imitate her Swiss counterpart, wear a nice scarf and long dress and pay tribute to Mr Jalili. Later on Mr Bush can go ahead and beg Ayatollah Khamenei to let them leave the Middle East with less caualties.
If you needed more evidence of Bush throwing in the towel on Iran, today was it: US to talk directly with Iran in Geneva. (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,383381,00.html)
It seems Condi’s appeasement policies worked and won, and for all we know a “grand Bargain” with the mullahs may have already been striked.
It seems B.Hussein Obama’s foreign policy is already being implemented by Bush administration.
Shame on you George Bush; shame on you Mr. Cheney. Your names will remain in infamy throughout history for pretending to be what you were not. Iranian people and secular democrats wull never forgive you and your shameful administration.
U.S. to reportedly announce in the next month that it plans to station diplomats in Tehran for the first time in 30 years.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,384505,00.html
The nail in the coffin of Iranian secular democracy movement delivered by Bush/Rice.
Funding for Iranian democratic groups is a way of discrediting democratic groups by extremely smart conspirators? That logic doesn’t hold at all.
Today’s NYT talks more about the U.S. Interests Section in Tehran that we’ve been hearing about which is supposed to increase western influences on the already pro-western Iranians. That logic doesn’t hold either.
This lack of reasoning skills in the general public and the top levels of government is disappointing.
An inerests section does little to speed up the visa process–there is a lengthy security check that would remain unchanged and the applicants must still wait in line. The only difference is, when applying for a visa, rather than going to Abu Dhabi or Ankara one would go to Tehran and, in the processn the mullahs would be able to sit outside and see what Iranians want to escape tyranny and the mullahs would gain even more unnecessary respect since the great satan will have come to its knees to recognize Iranian hegemony, nothing else changes.
But those mullah gains are insurmountable. I hope this typical State Department pipe dream dies with Bush’s (unlikely) objection…
Having a U.S. office in Tehran for people to get visa is long long long over due.
However, given that this administration’s speed of COMPREHENDING, RECOGNIZING, and WANTING to do positive things for Iranian people (and also for other people around the world) is an idea that is foreign and meaningless. Just look at their wacky $75 million funding for democracy movement in Iran!
So it is no wonder that after more than 7+ years, FINALLY, and FINALLY only because to earn some points for McCain, they have decided to take such an step that is so far just words.
Yes, opening an office in Tehran IS NOT for Iranian people to have an easier time to get a visa t come to U.S. If that was the case WHY on earth it took them over 7 years to come to this realization?
And yes, I think there must be such an office and there must be a beautiful American flag waving in heart of Tehran, and yes, it looks beautiful and so many Iranian would love to see such a flag while they drive in the crazy traffic of Tehran.
And yes, there must be direct flight that cuts the travel time between U.S. and Tehran by at least 7 hours. And NO, no mullah will benefit from this and the ratio of this change is much more for Iranian people. And YES, U.S. must let Iran gets some new airplanes for commercial purpose to take people from/to U.S/ Iran. Not doing that is like taking a huge shotgun and keep shooting one in the foot over and over and over again, believing to weaken the mullahs. NONSENSE.
So all these noises is to gain some points for poor McCain, which long time ago I said, even if Democrats nominated a mannequin as their nominee, STILL people would vote for a Democrat. Many of you right-wing-looking people are part of it. So don’t be shy and let it out.
So the best thing we can do at this time is: pray hard and wish the best for Obama to have a safe trip free of any evil doers and thinkers who may wish to harm the great hope of the greatest nation on earth. I wish him the best and hoping to see him back to U.S.
Someone should tell the US administration : ” Slower, please!”.
We understand how eagerly you like to surrender to the main source of the terrorism in the world, mullahs of Iran but you may need to slow down.
As an Iranian living in the Islamic Sultanate of Iran I don’t expect any help whatsoever of any kind from the paragons of idiocy, cowardice and bewilderment in the White House.
Those lame ducks are not able to save the lives of their own soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
ML:
It’s an ongoing surprise to me that the Iranian people seem not to know that it’s the Iranian proxies that have been defeated in Iraq, not American coalition forces. The defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq may well earn a chapter in military history, it’s an historic defeat.
We are entering a new phase of George Orwell’s way of handling historical events and public statement that comes out.
According to Radio Farda, Binyamin (Fuad) Ben Eliezer, the Israel Minister of Infrastructures in Turkey has said: “Suffering of Iranian people is like suffering of Israelis”!!!! He said more: “the only thing Israel has done for Iran is providing agricultural, medical and commercial services…. Israel and Iran have no animosities”
But wait, it gets more weird! …. Per BBC Farsi, one of Ahmadinejad’s Vice President by the name of Esfandiar Rahim Moshaei stated: “Today, Iran is friend of American and Israelis people”!!!!!! He also said that Iran has no war with any country in the world. The only war we had was with Iraq. His statement was broadcasted mostly for Iranian media!!!!
So just like the last 30 years of brainwashing that IR has injected by force to its people, they are slowly changing their language and moving ahead. I anticipate that in the next five years instead of direct missile attacks between Israel and Iran, there will be direct flights between Tehran and Tel Aviv, or possibly sooner.
I also predict the biggest of the biggest loser in the region is going to be UAE! Just wait and see how they will melt so many of those metal buildings for metal scraps.
So Mr. Burns and the great satan was grandly slapped in the face with Iran refusing to stop enrichment and yet another 2 week deadline on a phony “ultimatum” issued. Did this satisfy Ms. Rice?
What did we need to go there for? To hear enrichment isn’t stopping? Ahmadinejad already told us the nuclear program is like a train with no breaks at full speed. We didn’t believe them when they said that I guess. This grand bargain noesense is like a fetish for every administration.
They are being ver truthful to you us when they tell us they will erase Israel from the map, that we should all convert to Islam, that the holocaust never happened, that they want to clog the Straits of Hormuz, that they want to trade oil in Euros to weaken us, they counterfeit our money, they kill our soldiers, they finance shia militias in all middle eastern countries from lebanon to Yemen, and we simply play dumb and think this is a negotiation??!!
The democrats are all traitors for running their candidate, implementing their policy, and trying to make us surrender to these heathens.
Well, when the policies of the administration towards Iran regime backfires and so miserably fails like it has for the last almost 8-years under Bush/Rice, pundits and political observers are quick to make sure that the first “goats” they blame are the “Iranians” themselves. We see it everywhere in think tank organizations. When your policies fail miserably, just blame Iranians.
Saving missiles for a later date?
Isn’t that an indication that they are short of missiles or totally bluffing?
i.e. in biological terms they are signaling a lack of fitness. Or in terms any Middle Easterner can understand – they are a weak horse.
At the end of WW2 America dropped a bomb on Japan. Three days later they dropped another. America only had one left. The idea was to convince Japan that they would have to take 10 bombs a month indefinitely (until we could get our production rate up).
I. Zad,
Iran’s internal finances are a mess. Net oil output is declining due to oil field and economic mis-management. Estimates is that they will run out of net income by 2010 or 2012.
America is a Naval Power. Naval power takes years to get traction. It is the death of a thousand cuts. A slow bleed. You don’t cut off all the oxygen. Maybe only 60%. Then you make the target run a marathon. What happens? For the first 6 or 10 miles the marathoner runs on reserves. He looks formidable. He is leading the race. In the 11th mile he falls over dead.