It’s hard to imagine the left in a greater state of panic than it is now. Indicting Donald Trump just increases his popularity, and he’s ahead in the battleground states that will decide the election. Meanwhile, the criminal cases that partisan prosecutors have brought against him seem to be falling apart.
I find it amusing, but the Democrats aren’t laughing. They’re panicking. Even Barack Obama has reportedly been trying to convince Joe Biden to drop out. Biden should have known better than to run for reelection when he can’t hide in his basement again because his physical and cognitive decline isn’t exactly easy to cover up.
But Biden doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Naturally, Democrat voters aren’t exactly jazzed about Biden and have little reason to believe that he can win based on the polls. So the media is stepping in, looking to create the impression that Biden is bouncing back and roaring down the path to victory.
On Friday, Newsweek declared in a headline, "Joe Biden is Finally Beating Donald Trump in Polls Again."
Well, that's cute. When did that happen? Saying Biden is beating Trump "in polls again" suggests a trend. I look at the polls regularly. Did I miss something? I didn't. I knew exactly what they were referring to.
At the end of last month, Quinnipiac University came out with a poll showing Biden up six points nationally against Trump, with independent voters favoring Biden 52 to 40%. That would be phenomenal news for Biden if it reflected reality. January hasn't exactly been a great month for Joe Biden, with fresh scandals and the looming prospect of war in the Middle East not helping him one bit.
The previous Quinnipiac Poll, conducted in December, had Biden up by a point, within the poll's margin of error of 2.4 points. Does anyone really believe that Biden jumped five points in January? I wouldn't bank on it.
Worse yet, when we look at other pollsters' national surveys, they all mostly show Trump ahead in varying degrees — a point, two points, as much as six points. When various pollsters are showing a consistent range of polling, it's a safe bet they have a decent handle on where America is right now. Even polls that have shown Biden ahead nationally over the past month or so haven't shown him up more than two points.
Related: Yup, It Looks Like the Biden Administration Is Cooking the Books to Save His Campaign
In short, the Quinnipiac poll appears to be an outlier. It happens. But it's pretty sad when the media ignores the prevailing trend and hypes up one poll as gospel to get Biden voters excited.
Newsweek also referenced the recently released projection by Moody's Analytics. With its reputation for accuracy, I'm sure more than a few liberal reporters felt tingles up their legs when Moody's predicted that "President Biden is expected to win reelection but by a thin margin."
According to Moody's, "political factors favor Trump's candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden's." How did it reach that conclusion? Has Moody's seen polling on the economy? Americans don't exactly have a lot of good things to say about the economy right now.
Moody's may have a reputation for accuracy, but it also predicted that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide. So I would recommend taking its prediction with a grain of salt, not just because it's been wrong in the past, but because its prediction about Biden is loaded with caveats.
Despite claiming that the economic indicators look great for Biden now — again, that's a dubious claim to start — Moody's concedes that "the election could easily flip with only small shifts in the economy's performance, his approval rating, voter turnout, and how well third-party candidates do." In other words, it's not the most confident assessment that even Moody's admits relies on "big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics."
In short, if you're a hardcore leftist hoping Biden gets reelected, don't get too excited yet.
