And Now a Word from Bill Clinton on the Dangers of Raising Taxes
Economist Dan Mitchell writes that “The No-Tax-Hike Pledge Is an IQ Test for Republicans.” And that’s always a dangerous thing when you’re dealing with the Stupid Party:
Eugene Robinson is one of the group-think columnists at the Washington Post. Like E.J. Dionne, he is an utterly predictable proponent of big government. So it won’t surprise you to know that he wants taxes to go up and he’s a big fan of Obama’s class-warfare agenda.
He’s also a very partisan Democrat and wants the GOP to lose. Again, that’s not exactly a stunning revelation.
So when someone like Eugene Robinson starts offering advice to the Republican Party about tax policy, a logical person instantly should be suspicious that he’s actually trying to advance his own ideological and partisan agenda. . . . In this spirit, Mr. Robinson wants the GOP to abandon the no-tax-hike pledge.
And of course, so does Barry O, Charles Krauthammer adds:
[Obama is] not trying to fix our fiscal issues and problems. He’s trying to destroy the Republicans by insisting that there is a split among the Republicans on this issue which has held them together, the same way it destroyed President Bush Sr. when he went back on the pledge he made. This is a political attack on Republicans. There is no evidence right now that he has any interest in the real fiscal issue because he would have to talk about spending and entitlements and he isn’t.
Glenn Reynolds notes that when George H.W. Bush was talked into raising taxes by Democrats, he was “hailed as a conciliator for a day, then savaged brutally by the same press until he lost the 1992 election.”
And then further bludgeoned for violating his one promise from 1988 in television ads produced by the same party that had previously begged him to raise taxes. It’s a definitive example of Tim Matheson’s famous line from Animal House: “You f*cked up. You trusted us:”
The ads not only write themselves if the 2012 GOP folds as badly as Bush #41 — they’ve already been written.
Update: “What if the President Isn’t Bluffing,” Bryan Preston asks:
A recession in 2013 obviously comes on the calendar before the mid-term elections of 2014. If President Obama and the Democrats intend to cause a recession and blame it on the Republicans, their real game could be to use a spike in economic misery to take the House back and hold the Senate in 2014. They already face a daunting task in both; Republicans have a strong grip on the House and have to defend fewer seats than the Democrats have to defend in 2014. The Democrats need something to upset that plus deal with history: the party in the White House tends to lose seats in mid-terms.
I’m not saying that this strategy is without risks, or that it is anywhere near something that a responsible president and party would even contemplate. But we’re dealing with a president who despite his rhetoric is far out of the mainstream on policy, and is quite capable of ignoring public opinion in the short term to achieve his goals in the long term. He could trade some pain in early 2013 for 18 months to spin that pain as the Republicans’ fault, and present himself and his party as the only defense for Americans who have found themselves depending on government services to survive. The Democrats are a party without elder statesmen who ever think of putting the country ahead of their party.
So the president may well not be bluffing, and he may be willing to risk hurting millions of Americans in order to make them loyal to him.
Read the whole thing.
I’m not sure the Republicans have any choice but to fold. The Democrats are making it clear this week that this is not a negotiation–the Republicans will do as they are told, or they will receive the full blame for any recession that comes next year.
The thing is, there will be a recession next year no matter what, because of all the new regulations coming on line in healthcare, finance, and energy. So the Republicans have every incentive to give the president what he asks for, and try to shift the blame to the president.
You may be right. The past election has shown that the MSM still rules the roost in public opinion, and they will latch onto any reason to portray the Republicans as being the ones at fault. It may be that the only way to hang the Democrats is to give them the rope they are demanding for themselves.
I agree: the GOP should buy 30 minutes of TV time and tell the American people that raising taxes — even if it’s just on the rich — is a mistake, but elections have consequences, and they know that this is what the American people voted for. The GOP should have confidence in what they believe in. Therefore, if the Democrats do it, the results will be predictable.
[Those that voted for "revenge" should recall the Chinese proverb, "When seeking revenge, first dig two graves".]
On the floor of the House, vote “present” so there is a quorum, and let the Democrats raise taxes all they want — without a single GOP vote. And let the Recession begin.
The Democrats will never take responsibility for the damage that they do in the world, and if the GOP interferes to the slightest degree, they will be held 100% responsible for anything bad that happens. That gives the Democrats free reign to do what they want. Look at the shutdown of the government under President Clinton. The GOP and Clinton disagreed over how much spending to cut, a compromise couldn’t be reached in time, and a government shutdown occurred. Both parties failed to compromise, but the MSM convinced most Americans that it was all the GOP’s fault.
You can’t win this game, folks.
The problem with your argument is that the people who voted for the Republicans in the house and Senate DID NOT vote for higher taxes, and expect their elected legislators to respect the wishes of their electorate regardless of the presidential result.
A couple of weeks ago I wrote my Senators, the ones I voted for, and begged them to do just as kevino said. Even if the Republicans can score a win the press will lay the destruction that’s coming at their feet. A drunk has to bottom out before he can recover, so do we. Any win by the Republicans will just delay the inevitable. Vote present and let the chips fall where they may.
In that same 30 minute time, explain to the public that “the President bargained hard for the law as it is now. The President is a tough, tough negotiator, and he got exactly the deal he sought. He signed it into law, because he was happy with the deal that he had negotiated” Make him own it. Of course the media will never be in your corner or tell the entire truth. So what. Go over the cliff. Let the chips fall where they may. The democrats have complained of the unfairness of the “Bush tax cuts” since they were enacted. Time to remind all concerned that the tax cuts impacted everyone, not just the rich. The media will spin, as will J-the Carney Barker, but those who still collect a paycheck will feel it first hand. We all know there will never, ever, be any spending cuts, so stop pretending. Over the cliff we should go.
Thanks to the media (part of what I call the teaching network of the citizenry) the Republicans will get the blame regardless. If the Democrats can blame George Bush then reality is irrelevant. In the end it would be best if the Republicans actually show to their base that they know the meaning of the word “principles” and if that means going off a cliff the previous Congresses helped create then so be it. The current economic problems cannot be laid solely at the feet of this President or even this Congress. They must be laid at the feet of the electorate who continues to vote for forcibly taken “security” and “assistance” instead of opportunity and capability. The economic problems have been a long time in coming and kicking the can down the road will eventually turn into a game of musical chairs where the only perceived (by politicians) safe play is to remain a minority player in government until the disaster is over. Only after a serious depression and what comes next (either the 1930′s German horrors or epiphany and enlightenment) may a public who currently chooses to believe in Santa Claus be disabused of the notion. We are left with hard lessons. The soft lessons of reading, schooling and argument are no longer to be trusted because of the dishonesty and cowardice of our citizen teachers and the avarice and malice of our citizen students.
It’s no longer possible to kick the can, and no amount of tax-raising or spending cuts will change that. Wholesale entitlement and regulatory reform are required now, which isn’t going to happen.
The blame game is the only game left–we’re competing for what ideas will be allowed to flourish when we’re picking up the pieces. You say it’s rigged against the Republicans (and by extension free markets, even though Republicans have rarely done a good job of advocating for free markets). I agree, but the blame game is still the only game and it must be played.
Have the Republicans asked themselves this – what if there’s going to be a recession ANYWAY? Do they think Mr. Obama won’t blame it on them because they went along with his schemes? Do they think the public won’t fall for it?
It doesn’t matter what the GOP does, if there is a recession, the WH and its Operatives with Bylines will blame them.
I say give the Dems the increased tax-rates they want IN SPADES!
But, to carry it off, you have to be willing to go on the offensive, and at every opportunity declaim how you are just doing what the President wanted.
ATTACK….ATTACK….ATTACK!
Make the Dems defend their advocacy of increased tax rates, and explain why they increased spending instead of fulfilling their promise to provide x amount of reduction for each Dollar of increased tax revenue.
This could be, Republicans, your last stand as a National Party – Don’t (as usual) Screw the Pooch!
If you’re going to be bludgeoned no matter what you do the answer is obvious. Give Barry, the dummycraps and the lame streamers the middle finger. Saying they’ll get blamed if they do nothing ignores the bigger picture and the painfully obvious. Republicans get blamed for everything and the idiots buy into it. Why continue to play that game?
The best thing about that ad is how skinny and young Al Gore looks. It’s funny that as his rhetoric about global warming expands, so does he.
So if the Stupid party continues to try to kick the football (a la Lucy), you mean Lucy will really move the ball out of the way?
Seriously, this is an old story. If they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t, why not just stick to the no taxes pledge?
I wouldn’t have a problem with raising taxes, after the first full year that the federal government spending is less than any year of the Clinton administration. No phoney cuts in rate of spending growth. No phoney cuts taking place in the out years. Total spending cuts, vs. the Clinton Administration. Heck, I will even let you adjust for inflation.
Balanced? Sure! You commit first. Show me.
The best option I see is to offer to raise the taxes on real millionaires, those who earn more than $1 million per year. This is a vanishingly small group but the majority are not Republican voters. The Hollywood types will have their chance to show their patriotism and the real small business owners will be mostly spared. If that is turned down by the Democrats, it will be easier to argue that they are not serious. Hollywood tax incentives are a fat target, too. As are ex-politicians who move to the lobbying industry. We could have some fun with this. All it takes is imagination, which of course is the problem.
Roger that. I never understood why the Repubs wouldn’t take the Democrats’ up on raising taxes on the Democrats’ own constituency group, many of whom have campaigned for higher taxes on “the rich”. That would take some of the class warfare out of their rhetoric.
Mike, the Republicans should put some thought into how to shield small business owners from as much of any tax increase on “the rich” while getting as much of the revenue from the Blue States as possible. Republicans have already proposed an overall cap on itemized deductions which hit areas with high taxes and big mortgage payments hardest. They could eliminate some “green” tax preferences. They might fight to keep the personal exemption phaseout from reappearing in 2013 in exchange for a 1% increase in the top income tax rate.
Another trick Republicans could use would be make sure real spending cuts occur early in the budget cycle while putting the tax increases later in the cycle. Future tax increases count as revenue in the congressional budget game even a future congress repeals them before they take effect.
What bad thing would happen if … you go along with the taxes for >$250 adjusted gross income, IF and only IF the value of every job created by you (whether maid or small-business employee) is deducted? Effect on stocks? Maybe also allow the prorata value of jobs created by companies you own part of, via stock? For people with incomes below $500K or so, should drive job creation. For the “real” millionaires, not much different from what they’re already planning on.
The commercials were already written for the last Presidential election too (remember “I will cut the deficit in half by the end of my first term” or “Adding $4Trillion to the national debt is *un-patriotic*”? Those clips could easily have been used against Obama, but as far as I know, they never were.
Why would the stupid party break its tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory now?
I do not think it is about the GOP folding or anything of the kind. The thing that people seem to be overlooking is that if a compromise is not reached, taxes go up automatically…the only person that can stop that is Obama….not Boehner. And Obama knows he will not get the blame.
As a fall-back, that’s not all bad. A number of commentators have recently observed that the folks on the lower end and in the middle of the wage scale might be a bit slower to vote for big government if they thought they might have to pay for some of it.
It doesn’t matter what they do. Raise taxes or don’t, stick to their guns on spending or don’t, it doesn’t matter. Republicans will be blamed for ANY economic pain that results from either choice and they will get NONE of the credit for any good that might happen. They cannot win this.
Don’t believe me? Just look how many people in this last election genuinely believe that GW Bush “ruined the economy”. Don’t ask them how he did it, you could hold a gun to their heads and they wouldn’t be able to explain it. But they believe it nonetheless.
The vast majority of the electorate are low information voters now. Until we take back at least some portion of the media and/or academia we’re screwed.
Hasn’t Barry previously said, on some other issue, that he doesn’t bluff?
No, the idiot said “don’t call my bluff”.
If they’re going to fold, and they will since they’re the GOP, the GOP needs to fold right. Since they can’t stop the coming tax hike, the GOP should take a leaf from the Book of Obama and vote “Present.” Every single manjack and Lindsey Graham of them.
Not Yes, not No. Just Present.
Make the Dems own it totally while refusing to eat the MSM’s pre-made Obstructionist Sandwich.
Lead from behind.
The GOP is going to get blamed regardless of what they do, so they might as well stand by principle
Yes, it would be fun to vote Present, but when the shit hits the fan, the media and the Democratic Party will treat it as a bipartisan agreement (No one was against it! Can’t blame us!)
I wish there was enough gumption to say “Yes, we’ll raise taxes in exchange for REAL entitlement reform and REAL spending cuts, not just decreases in the increase.” Make it the Democrats’ stubborness that takes us over the cliff. And if a deal is cut, no one short of Grover Norquist on the Republican side is going to be that angry.
But to raise taxes AND kick the can down the road on the budget is the worst of both worlds. Which means that is what will happen.
The GOP house members are up against it. Here is a plan if they have the courage to carry it out. The House of Representatives is the Constitutional source of tax and money bills. They should zero out all appropriation bills and agency/department budgets then tell the the Democrats to bring it on.
I’m in full agreement with the GOP abstaining and allowing the Democrats to own it. Even if they were to strike some sort of deal, the public is too stupid and easily led by the media which does the bidding of Obama and his minions. Over half of Obama’s 2008 voters believed that the GOP held both houses of Congress. We can’t beat the MSM messaging machine that begins each morning with Lauer and ends with Leno. The best we can do is to make Obama own his coming recession, so that the MSM will have no credibility when they parrot the Democrats’ blaming of the GOP.
The ads not only write themselves if…
Slight problem – no one at the GOP is listening, let alone taking notes and creating those ads. They’re too busy thinking about what few principles they have left that they can sacrifice in the interest of compromise.