Michael Barone Predicts That Romney Will Win 2012 Presidential Race
October 26th, 2012 - 11:45 pm
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After discussing the nuts and bolts of Ohio and other battleground states with Sean Hannity on Friday night (interesting in its own right), at the conclusion of the interview, Barone is asked by Hannity which candidate he believes will win. “Mitt Romney,” he replies.
Add that to Jim Geraghty’s comments that “Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote,” and you have two prominent statistics-oriented conservative pundits who — at least as of Friday, October 26 — are willing to go on the record that they believe Romney will win in November.
[Editor's Note: Insert reminders to eschew the aura of the penumbra of overweening self-confidence here.]
Update: Welcome readers clicking in from:
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- American Catholic.com
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- And the PJM homepage.
Filed under: Democracy In America, The Making of the President
I’ve a ten dollar bet with my brother that it’s going to be by a considerable margin. At least 10 points. Maybe 55%-44% (with 1% going libertarian and others). Will this count as a blowout? Will this be in “mandate” country? Will the Dems protest?
Nadhmi Auchi’s London law firm targets American Thinker website
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2012/09/30/nadhmi-auchis-london-law-firm-targets-american-thinker-website/
REZKO, OBAMA, AND THE NADHMI AUCHI RAILROAD LINKING CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, AND BAGHDAD (Part 3 of 3)
http://illinoispaytoplay.com/2012/10/26/rezko-obama-and-the-nadhmi-auchi-railroad-linking-chicago-washington-and-baghdad-part-3-of-3/
Because I love irony I believe Obama will get 47%…..
I know a few of those ’47%’ers’. Not all of them are all gaga over Obama – a few of them loath him almost as much as I do. My younger brother is barely able to walk because of an industrial accident and is on SS disability – he’d slit his throat rather than vote for Obama. I’m quite certain there are many others like him.
Not enough to move from that 47% number too much – just more than enough to give Romney the win IMO.
I don’t think your brother was the 47% Mitt meant. I interpreted his comments to mean able bodied people on assistance or in government positions. I don’t think he included disabled and retired people in the mix.
Romney was talking those who would vote for Obama no matter what. The guaranteed part of the voting public who Romney could never hope to influence. Where Obama could be caught naked with the president of Iran and they’d still vote for him. (sorry for the graphic image)
I’m in the 47% and let me tell you I won’t be voting for Mr. Obama. This guy is a disaster.
Remember the 2010 election? That was a mid-term. This one is for all the marbles, including possibly seating a coupla SC Justices.
Think 2010 on overdrive. =^[.]^=
Agreed, Raycheetah. The Left seems to think the Tea Party is dead, and that the whole country has forgotten the voter outrage of the 2010 mid-terms. They forget at their own peril. I,too, think this election on Nov. 6 will be a blow-out in Romney’s favor. Let’s sqeeze this pimple!!
I’ve been meaning to ask – what the h3ll is your emoticon supposed to represent?
Taking his name into account, I would posit that they’re the ‘tear duct’ black markings on a king cheetah.
I’m predicting a Romney – 50.8%, Obama – 47.5%; Romney – 301, Obama – 237 win. Not a blow-out; but not a squeaker.
Tell me how you get 301, start with 206 (incl NC) off RealClear / Thanks
Here’s how. Going from Election Projection from two days ago before Colorado and NH slipped back blue temporarily, he had Romney at 261.
Romney wins Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa which would give him the magic number of 301.
Personally I think Nevada’s 6 is a more likely than New Mexico’s 5
My personal prediciton: He takes Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico for a comfortable 343 total.
Oh forgot one thing that may be messing people’s numbers up: Romney will probably get one EV from Maine, which splits theirs like Nebraska does.
I agree with you except NV/NM. Too many Latinos. If you look at NV early voting numbers, I just don’t see a path to victory for Romney. I think he’ll win 295-243, with the next most likely state to flip being Pennsylvania, where I thought he’d have a much easier time from the get go.
Impossible for Romney to take Michigan, sorry. I’ve lived here most of my life and I just don’t see how that’s possible. A huge portion of the state is part of the Democratic party by means of being union members.
I’m from Pennsylvania, the original home of Reagan Democrats. Their union tells them to vote one way and they do different once that curtain closes behind them.
Like the union guys forced to campaign for Martha Coakley against Brown in Massachuesetts a few years ago.
Could happen, espeically if the turnout model this year turns out like Rasmussen and Gallup seem to indicate it is leaning
If union employees only voted the way they were told to, then Scott Walker would not have beat his recall.
I got to 301 also using 270towin. Romney get, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, NH, FL, Virg, NC, but loses Penn and Michigan.
I’m thinking anywhere from 285 to 337 Romney win. Of course that’s because we are all racists according to the AP
Strange but true. Believe it or not. If Romney wins the popular vote then he will also “win” the electoral votes associated with Vermont, Maryland, Washington, Illinois, New Jersey, DC, Massachusetts, California and Hawaii.
“How can this be!?!?!” you exclaim. Very ironic and “they” can blame Bush vs Gore. Those nine jurisdictions enacted a law known as “National Popular Vote” described at the website by the same name.
Wouldn’t it be ironic and funny if, the day after the election, Romney ‘wins’ the electoral college because of the progressives own handiwork several years earlier?
Last time (and only time) someone won the popular vote with 50%+ and lost the electoral college was 1876. And that was the 1st and only time it happened. It was 51/47 popular vote and 184/185 EC. Lost the EC by 1 vote after winning the PV by 4%.
So it can happen, but it’s only happened once out of about 60 elections.
What about Gore in 2000?
All of those states’ laws (Vermont, Maryland, Washington, Illinois, New Jersey, DC, Massachusetts, California and Hawaii) have a clause within them that prevent them from going into effect until enough states to total 270+ electoral votes have passed similar legislation (to prevent the very scenario you have presented.)
So, what happens if these states get above 270 EC votes and their popular vote laws are enacted but then they drop back below half either because of reapportionment or a 51st state is added.
I thought same thing but this law only applies when a certain number of states have passed that bill, so essentially more political bull.
Don’t worry, they will go to their State Supreme Court to declare their “National Popular Vote” was unconstitutional. Since each state takes care of its own election law, and none of them has passed a constitutional amendment to amend their election law.
No people are more frequently hoist by their own petards, or run afoul of the Law of Unintended Consequences than progressives. Ignoring reality will do that to you.
Hannity asked, “Right now, who’s winning this race?”, and Barone answered (without missing a beat), “Mitt Romney”, so he didn’t actually predict.
but I’ll take what I can get.
Actually, Hannity said “Prediction, who’s winning this race,” so I think the headline’s valid. But yeah, I’ll take what I can get for now, too.
I also listened to the Barone interview and came away knowing that he felt that Romney was winning the race as well, but further, I also had the feeling Mr. Barone was implying that Romney was also winning Ohio since that was the main topic. That is, you win Ohio you will probably win the race…
John, do you ever feel like you are the last Republican or conservative in Seattle ? Or as some like to refer to it as “San Francisco north”.
Im native Texas and all those new folks moving here for jobs scare me to death. They are bringing their commie liberal garbage ideas with them.
Why is Romney going to win Ohio? Unaffiliated will swing strongly for R&R; polls over sample D-party ID.
Now, what have I missed? Please add below.
…electoral fraud, that’s what you are missing – something the democRATS excell at:
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
Also, read a few comments in this PJM article:
http://pjmedia.com/rogerkimball/2012/10/25/what-states-obama-wins-ii/
Unless one is willing to accept the hypothesis that innercity minorities are about 50% more “patriotic” or willing to fulfill their “civic duties” than the rest of us, these voter “turnouts” that give the democrats electoral majorites in swing States are all fraudulent.
Orson
Catch the article about somalians being bused to voting precincts in Ohio?
45,000 in Ohio..this is what concerns me
Also heard yesterday about a voting machine that came up Obama even when you chose Romney – Las Vegas
Never underestimate the gutter tactics of the left
That said I still believe Romney wins
I thought it was Barone and Hannity’s job to be a mouthpiece for the GOP/Fox News agenda. Weren’t you guys recently crying something about “skewed” analysis? Why is anything either says relevant in any adult level conversation?
Come back 7 November and explain it to us.
“I thought it was Barone and Hannity’s job to be a mouthpiece for the GOP/Fox News agenda.” Oh you did, did you? Well, you thought wrong in the case of Barone. Guys been around a lot longer than Fox News. Knows his stuff. Don’t think he’s a mouthpiece for anyone.
But you libs don’t know much about “independent thinking”, do you?
Romney needs to win by a considerable margin…if it’s close the Democrats will steal it.
Count on it.
Just like Bush v. Gore?
Democrats certainly tried to steal it in Bush v. Gore. Fortunately, the Supreme Court decided that Gore couldn’t keep recounting the same ballots over and over again until he got the results he wanted.
Exactly. Thank God that the Supreme Court and Florida Judges ended the Democrats underhanded try at stealing the election from Bush. They only wanted to recount votes in the counties where they thought they could pick up votes, not in all the other FL counties. If you are going to recount in one county, you have to recount ALL the counties.
They always undercount Republicans by 3-5%, ever since Nixon and especially Reagan.
If My Mittens is ahead by 3 or 4 at this point (and let us all agree that the polling has become as unhinged from reality as the rest of the MSM)according to Gallup, he’s really ahead by 6-8.
Still, that’s not the point. We need to FLOOD the polls this time! We need all the marbles and a bulletproof mandate to do what needs to be done.
Like start impeaching bad judges, wholesale. Like sending he EPA and OSHA and the Department of Miseducation packing.
Do it now, with the vote, or do it later, with bullets. These people are enslaving us. Don’t let them.
Fight them.
Everyone in this country should take the day off just to vote and keep an eye on the polls. Everything else can wait, that day.
Yes, a Flood would be lovely. I’m with you on that. For those of us Conservatives and Libertarians trapped in dark Blue States (NY), we can perhaps only hope for a substantially improved turn out for our side? Reagan turned NY Red, but since then NY has become increasingly, miserably, Blue. Or at least, less informed, and more fiscally foolish than ever before. Our schools are among the worst in the country. Coincidence? I think not.
I don’t think Geraghty predicted an electoral college win just yet, just the popular vote.
I don’t think anyone, even the best pollsters, really knows who’ll win, especially when Barry has over a week to pull a late October/early November surprise. (Assuming he could carry that off better than he’s carried off 3 1/2 years of being President.) Karl Rove and his white board make a lot of sense but he’s running two large PACs, Crossroads GPS and Crossroads America, that are pitching for the Red Team. Barone is unquestionably conservative but he’s about as informed and astute a political observer as anyone on the scene. He has also studied the vote-stealing tactics of the Democrats and presumably is taking a margin of theft into account in his analysis. Note: Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State, said on the same show that Ohio would go to Romney but the win would be within the “margin of litigation.” I certainly hope Romney wins without another Bush v. Gore type of legal battle.
Obama, campaign would not be floating alternate “firewall” scenarios if they thought they were winnin Ohio.
Obama-Romney are the same shit
grow up chavez…
I agree; the only difference is that one is American, the other is half-Kenyan.
I have had Romney ahead based on polling trends since 9-23-2012. Not a landslide, but a solid win.
http://radioblognews.blogspot.com/2012/09/2012-election-prediction-romney-wins.html
This map is wrong.
It misses the fact that Romney will also take Colorado, New Hampshire, and probably 1 EV from Maine. So add 14 more to the GOP EV total and subtract the same from Obama.
Barone:Take it to the bank.
Wow, this is pure poetry: “…reminders to eschew the aura of the penumbra of overweening self-confidence here.”
I’ll have to work that into the kids pre soccer game pep talk
If Barone says so, I’m convinced.
AFTER President Romney wins, I want to see 0 impeached over Benghazi. Plenty of time for that after the election and before Jan 20.
Ohio makes me nervous when I read things like this:
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
Actually, Geraghty said Romney would win the popular vote – not the election. Without Ohio, Romney would have to flip states that were huge Obama wins in 2008 – like WI or PA – that’s a pretty tough order. And Ohio is ever so slightly favoring Obama. It could be a 52-48% Romney win, but he can’t get to 270. Barone – I respect, so we’ll see.
If he wins WI, where the polls are tied, he gets 270+. He is well ahead in the other States he needs.
Slice it, dice it, and serve it up with fries but it gets down to 9 states as unless there’s some huge game changer, 41 have pretty much committed one way or the other.
Being a “numbers” guy, I’d say this is Obama’s election to lose. Gabriel Snyder at the Atlantic Wire crunched some numbers and gives Obama an 82.4% chance of winning.
With those 9 states up for grabs, Snyder calculated 512 different ways this could end up with 431 scenarios favoring Obama and 81 going to Romney (5 of which would be a tie and would then default to a Romney win). It’s worth noting that the Obama advantage of several of these states are not calculated into the odds, making it even more difficult to unseat Obama. Also, there are only 11 scenarios where Romney can win without Ohio.
From Barone’s lips to God’s ears. Get out there and vote, people, and make it happen for Romney. If the whole Libya mess doesn’t convince “undecided” voters that Obama is not fit to be president, I don’t know what will.
The ones I worry about are that large bloc of adolescent-minded 18/26 years-old bunch who thought/still think it’s “cool” to vote for a Black man. They, along with the under-educated “entitlement” attitude class, single welfare mothers, combined then with all those who couldn’t care less about anything worldly or Muslim-associated…and those who don’t understand deficits, unfavorable dollar exchange rates and balance of payments “stuff”……all together make a mass who are just itchin’ to see that second term; they collectively couldn’t care less about their chameleon’s past four years. Couldn’t care less. Cool, man.
Those experienced pundits with their computer models and all sorts of indexes, and samples-such, know much more than I do……but I’m an Octogenarian who cast my first-vote-ever for Eisenhower, and I don’t think it’s a sure thing at all.
Bush/Gore redux? We’ll see what we’ll see.
Charlie, the good thing about the 18-26 demographic is that they’re the least reliable to actually vote.
Not to mention that the 18-26 who DO care are voting, surprisingly, almost entirely on Gay Marriage and Abortion.
And the only ridicule weapon they have in their tank against the other side is “LOL Romney’s a Mormon. LOL Magic Underwear.”
that “surprisingly” was meant to be sarcasm.
Forgetting the polls, let’s look at 2008′s promises versus 2012′s reality. In 2008 Obama won with 52.9% of the vote, far from the landslide the media hype portrays. The turnout was 63%. There were more young people and more minorities voting than in the past elections. Part of this increased turnout among these groups was the media hype about helping to make history. Some Republicans/Republican leaners stayed home. Others succumbed to the hype and racial guilt to vote for Obama. With the aid and abetting of the media Obama portrayed himself as a healer, a post racial man of religious faith, as well as a political moderate- right down to the claims that he would balance the budget. He was also going to restore America’s reputation abroad. Thus a shade over 3% of voters have to change their minds. Maybe they switch sides. Maybe they stay home.
Now look at 2012. The hard left isn’t happy because he didn’t close Guantanamo and has increased the use of drone attacks. Some already promise to vote Green in protest. The evangelicals and Catholics who took him as a man of religious faith are unhappy with what has come to pass on abortion, the HHS mandate and gay marriage. The Hispanics feel he didn’t keep his promises on immigration reform and now has the audacity to pander to them again plus there is Fast & Furious. Many Jews are unhappy over the treatment of Israel. Recent college graduates are drowning it debt while finding only part time jobs at best. The once emerging black middle class has shrunk to its smallest numbers in over a generation. On top of this during the debates the carefully crafted image of Obama as an even tempered policy wonk was shattered. He was inarticulate, ill-informed, duplicitous, petulant and condescending. Obama’s been shedding women voters ever since because women don’t like deceitful immature men.
I have never seen voters reward a candidate who played as big a bait and switch as Obama did. The only people still enthusiastic about him are those who abetted in that bait and switch.
I too think Mitt will win and I love NC Girl’s enthusiasm, but I respectfully disagree on her details. Nitpicking, I know but…Jews don’t care about Israel. They’re libs before they’re supporters of Israel. Hispanics? Sure, Obama stiffed them but are they really expecting amnesty from Reps? Obama is giving them creeping amnesty–DREAM, ignoring the law on enforcement, etc. College kids (judging from my daughter’s friends) still strongly support BO, but they won’t vote in as big numbers.
Obama didn’t win because of Hispanics, Jews, etc. He won because Reps put up an inept, lackluster candidate and the market crashed–so Reps stayed home. Won’t happen this time.
NC Mountain Girl: That’s one of the best written analyses of the situation as I’ve seen! I’m sharing it!
Excellent, sensible analysis.
To follow on to NC girl’s points.
1. as OCT said, Romney is a better candidate than McCain
2. OCT again, in 2008 the financial crisis favored the Fraud
3. in 2012, Benghazi favors Romney
4. Republican have a dramatically better ground game in 2012
5. Romney has more money, by far, than McCain for the final 10 days
6. the bloom is far off the obama rose
7. it is clear that obama can’t do what he said he would do
8. the Fraud has run a campaign that appears designed to alienate the people most likely to vote.
The only thing that favors the Fraud is voter fraud. ALL of the other factors are in Romney’s favor. Of course, voter fraud is a huge plus for the party that should hold its meetings in the penitentary.
And the October surprise is still out there.
I don’t really think voters sentiments are changing, I think it has just become more “acceptable” to say you’re voting Romney. This was Romney’s feat in the debates. He made himself seem a reasonable alternative to Omama. This is how pref cascades begin to steamroll
Barone is right. I think 301-237 sounds fair, but this Benghazi mess could amplify Romney’s win. Hillary and O were very sloppy – the October surprise could be that Obama is forced into a press conference OR an address to the nation from the Oval Office BEFORE Election Day. The President cannot think he can attack Libya before the election without taking questions on it.
Either way, the race is breaking hard for Mitt already – Rasmussen’s intensity is better than 2010 for Obama, but it’s still -10 on a good day. That matters. I see Ohio and Wisconsin going Romney. In a blowout scenario, PA, MN and Michigan go red.
I’ve said this before, but I just can’t believe Michigan will vote against Obama, sorry.
Been saying for a year that this won’t even be close – Romney by a minimun of 300 electoral votes.
On Thursday night the Romney rally packed 10,000 people in the high school stadium in Defiance, OH. Even though this part of OH is relatively conservative, Defiance is home to GM’s Central Foundry which employs about 2,000 UAW thugs. The Romney visit dwarfed Obama’s.
“It is not yet morning in America, but it is close.”
I wonder what the gangsters in the WH are planning in case they lose. Unlike the poem I doubt they will go “quietly in the night”.
File lawsuits in each and every State that he lost in. It’s the Obama way.
I think Romney will win, and I wonder what kind of violence might ensue. I recommend taking a little overnight trip if you live in a big city near an iffy neighborhood.
Handgun ownership has surged under Obama. That shows good instincts on the part of sane people.
Michael, good to have you onboard, but you’re LATE. WE, THE PEOPLE, a mighty coalition of Conservatives, Tea Partiers, Republicans, Libertarians, and Believers in the Judeo-Christ God of Our Fathers HAVE PREDICTED THIS FOR SOME WEEKS NOW.
The Media Whores are aghast
The Presstitutes are confounded
The Pollsters are still FAKING AND SKEWING AND TWISTING THEIR NUMBERS
BUT THE PEOPLE “GET IT”
BO, MO, JOE, HILLY, AND BILLY and their minions REMAIN CLUELESS!
“ROMNEY & RYAN FOR THE REPUBLIC”
Our nation senses TRIUMPH,
We once feared might never come,
To dispel the clouds of fraud and fear,
Spread like sewage by false MEDIA’s son.
The Pretender was truly their bastard child,
Conceived by the lies they’d spun.
Those with eyes to see and ears to hear,
Pierced the veil false MEDIA made.
As it hid the past and distorted the present,
Of its child who worshipped the shade,
Of the enemies of honor and truth,
And the evil plans they had laid.
Rejoice our souls! Sing out our hearts!
Our champions have appeared!
Their has never been sold for lucre,
And their faith does not bow to fear—
But we now deeply bow in thanks,
That our pleas kind Heaven would hear.
Blessed with a wealth he made himself,
Romney can neither be bought nor bribed.
His running mate is a GENIUS,
And true ladies stand at their side,
Tempered by sorrows and service,
They will fight evil’s vicious tide.
With our Champions and Ladies we call to you,
Our friends and brothers in need.
Be not dismayed at the scope of our task,
Heed not the temptation of greed.
FOR WE SHALL SOON SEE a renewed Freedom Tree,
AND WE’LL STAY THE LAND OF THE FREE.
ROMNEY & RYAN WIN BIG IN…ten days
No rights reserved
20. Wigglesworth….Stop reading stuff like that and stressing yourself unnecessarily. You’re just borrowing trouble. Relax. It’ll turn out alright.
Why I’ve thought all along Romney will win:
1) Lots of Americans are hurting – and have been for some time. We know why – medican incomes, gas and food prices, chronic un/under employment. American voters always blame the guy in charge.
2) Romney gobbles up Indie voters like candy. They propelled Obama to victory in 2008, but he’s been losing them in droves since 2009. In fact, if you look at Obama’s approval among Indies since 2009, his support has ranged from the high 30% – low 40% for a while now. Current polls show the same thing and you just can’t win that way.
3) Obama has spent 3+ years ticking-off as many people as humanly possible. Catholics and Jews, men and women, Latinos and Blacks, gay and straight, conservatives and even Liberals. You just cannot win re-election by demonizing so many people over a short period of time because, sooner or later, you start ticking-off those that helped put you in power.
4) The enthisiasm that propelled Republicans to a “shellacking” in 2010 hasn’t wavered, and may in fact have intensified.
5) Democrats look, act and talk the same as we did in 2008 when we knew it was all over.
My prediction: Romney will win by a margin nearly as large as Obama’s victory in 2008.
I think Obama will win because people are morons. We’ll see which of us has a better understanding of human nature on Nov.7.
I hope it’s you.
I’m worried about how to bring this country together no matter who wins. How do you bring us together again IMO
Order to fight Islamic fascism and deal with our debt when you see the monsters that support the other side.
Published on Mar 14, 2012 ALARMING! Washington’s Dilemma!. Soaring debt and a budget Congress can’t balance. This VIDEO explains WHY. Every person in AMERICA should watch this video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW5IdwltaAc&feature=player_embedded#!
Published on Aug 21, 2012 The Commission on Presidential Debates is a private corporation headed by the former chairmen of the Republican and Democratic parties. The CPD is a duopoly which allows the major party candidates to draft secret agreements about debate arrangements including moderators, debate format and even participants. The result is a travesty riddled with sterile, non-contentious arguments which consistently exclude alternative voices that Americans want to hear.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NXhoP5bQ2M&feature=player_embedded
This one’s over. I agree with Barone. Independents moving to the incumbent in the last week? It would be a first for a sitting president in modern times. Gallup and Ras have the general trend here. It’s going to be 3.5-4.5 points R (51.5-48.5) with maybe 305-315 EV, with some surprises. Smith will take PA. Akin will take MO. Senate will be something like 52-48 R, perhaps 53-47 if we get a surprise in CT and/or MA (Brown wins in a squeaker).
Unfortunately, it does not look so great for Scott Brown, He is down 5% in a recent poll to that wing nut. How anyone in Massachusetts can vote for Warren is a mystery.
I looked at the 2002 Mass governor election on Wikipedia. Romney was down 5% in the last Boston Globe poll 3 days before the election, but won by 6%. Same thing will happen in MA.
You might be right after all. Today, the Boston Globe has Brown up 45-43. Lets hope this holds. Warren is a frightening prospect for senator, no matter how much conservatives like myself disagree with Brown on some issues. Shes about as dumb as Patty Murray in Washington.
quesnay – I ask myself the same question. Here’s a woman who’s claimed to be Cherokee, and is not, who practiced law without license and who got freebees based on her being an academic, yet the people of Massachusetts seem poised to elect her senator. I guess when you’ve elected someone who abandoned a woman to a watery grave, you can elect any liar for senator.
Isn’t Mass. the state that loves the Kennedys……including Teddy, the one who was kicked out of Harvard for cheating and left the scene of a traffic accident in which a young woman was killed? Didn’t the people of this disgusting state let Teddy get away with leaving the scene of a fatal traffic accident and then tryin to chat up an inn keeper in order to establish an alibi? Isn’t this the state that repeatedly sent Barney Frank to Washington, yeah, that Barney Frank that said he wanted to “roll the dice a little” with the home mortgage market……..in order to force banks to provide mortgages to people (democRAT supporters) who would never have been able to qualify for the loans under proven, traditional lending standards? These people are no good and proud of it.
If you believe the polls, Romney will lose. A close analysis of the RCP averages indicates he will win around 225 to 250 electoral votes and needs another 3-5% in several states to win. That’s possible, but unlikely.
But the polls are lies.
They almost all use a 2008 turnout model. It’s a lie, period. The turnout model won’t happen. It understates obama hating voters by at least five percent, probably ten percent. Even Rasmussen and Gallup understate it.
And there is more, particularly in Ohio. Read the report from the republicans about their ground game and an analysis of where the Democrats stand. It is publically available. It makes a compelling case with lots of hard data that the image of a 50/50 race there is substantially in error. Democrats have lost voters in the state, and the early Dem voters are people who are highly likely to vote anyway, whereas the Rep early voter are infrequent voters.
So Romney would win a fair election by at least 5% and at least 290 electoral votes, probably more like 10% and 380 electoral votes.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Democrats have a massive voter fraud infrastructure in place that is worth about 5%. It’s concentrated in key states, like Ohio and Nevada. It makes the race about even, from an electoral persective. And the Fraud hasn’t wagged the dog yet either.
So it will be close.
Keep pushing.
Read the polls? At RCP? If you spend enough time looking at it (like I unfortunately have) you see that not only are they cherry picking polls (ie using PPP but no McInturff, etc), but they take no account of the standard error differences in each poll (which you have to do if you average them–polls with larger numbers and smaller margins of error should be weighed higher). Also, RCP uses older polls in many of their state averages. If you use (1) the poll averages in each state for the past 7 days; and (2) the national average for the past 7 days, you get a clear Romney win. This is going to be 52-48 or thereabouts with about 300 EV. What’s the other evidence–look at the campaigns and where the battle is being fought. If O was up, the fight would be in FL and NC. Instead, it’s in IA and WI. Sorry, it’s over–anything else is just pure spin. I’ve been watching these things long enough to know. All that is an issue now is the Senate composition.
Hey, I already said the polls lie, but you are wrong about them saying a clear Romney win (unless you dig into the internals and adjust the headline results based on your own turnout assumptions).
There is no way to look at Ohio and predict a Romney victory from the raw headline numbers, even if you throw away the older polls. Ditto for Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Nevada. Without some of those five, a Romney victory would be very difficult.
But here is something interesting. Pravda is beginning to agree that Romney has a near lock on the popular vote.
And you are right that momentum counts. Romney has that. Unfortunately, it isn’t showing up very strongly in Ohio, so there has to be some doubt about that state. I hope his campaign is working on Plan B, which is probably Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and New Hampshire. The Iowa paper’s endorsement of Romney is pretty significant, I think, so he should go there first, and Wisconsin second. Many people think he will win Florida, NC, Virginia and Colorado. That puts him at 257. Neither Iowa nor Wisconsin alone is enough, but together they put him at 273, a win. New Hampshire and Wisconsin also do it, as does Michigan alone. He is also in the hunt in Nevada, but Nevada has been extremely disappointing recently, so it’s low on my list along with Pennsylvania, a state with massive fraud opportunities.
It’s actually looking pretty good, even without Ohio…at least until the thugs pull the real October surprise, wag the dog, or both.
Speaking of October surprises, does everybody know that gasoline has tumbled 80 cents a gallon in the last three weeks…in Ohio. Numerous stations there are selling it for under $3.00…some as low as 2.88 today.
Shocking isn’t it? But you guys in Massachusetts and New York, don’t get too excited. You’ve only seen a drop of $.22 in the same period, with an average of $3.90 state-wide.
Of course, we all know, and I personally have been admonished numerous times, that wild political conspiracy theories are nonsense. I thought the drop in national prices from above $4 to below $2 in Sep/Oct 2008 was kind of strange, but people who know much better have assured me it was just a coincidence, just like the $.80 drop in Ohio (so far) this year.
Canton was 299 this morning. This evening it is back to 344. I don’t think this is some plot to reelect the president.
a spot price is meaningless. Prices within in any state vary by a dollar or more per gallon. The one you cited is above the state average. Many stations in Ohio are still under $3 per gallon.
In the last month. Ohio had the largest drop in average gasoline prices of any state. Michigan was #2. Other states with large drops were Minnesotta and Wisconsin.
Ohio and Michigan have bounced up a bit in the last three days, but their overall drops are still among the highest in the country.
I haven’t plotted all the states, but a quick look indicates that no Red States other than Indiana are close from a percentage drop perspective.
But you are probably right. Nobody is more ethical than obama and his Chicaco friends, and his Saudi friends, and his Russian friends. That group could write encyclopedias about managing aboveboard elections.
It will be interesting to see what happens as election day approaches.
http://www.ohiogasprices.com/Retail_Price_Chart.aspx
Romney will win, but at what cost?
I have lost my hero, Russell Crowe, after his ridiculous tweet.
Read “Et Tu Brute” at:
http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/
You haven’t lost a hero. You’ve gained a new perspective.
Hi, I was just reading an article that said there are five states that have passed laws that award all that state’s electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. These are Washington State-11, Hawaii-4, Illinois(!!)-21, Maryland-10, and New Jersey-15. Are these laws Constitutional?? If so then if Romney wins the popular vote then he wins the Electoral Vote since every one of these states are reported to be going to vote for Obama. Am I missing something here? I would look more but I am just taking a break from school work.
Big Oops, this pact does not come into play unless enough states have agreed to it. So ignore my comment. Sorry, studying too hard and I missed that detail.
The key to winning those rust belt states for Romney are the affluent suburban voters who have been trending Democratic the last few years. Most of that demographic go to the polls to vote. With the economy in the tank, social issues will take a back seat with those voters who are trending heavily for Romney right now. Obama seems to have flat-lined at 47% or so, and if that number does not change in the polls, Romney should handily win the popular and electoral college
Someone with a track record like Barone’s thinks that Romney will win? Obviously, this increases Obama’s chance of winning to 1342% by Nate Silver’s methodology.
I am leaning optimistic about a Romney win. I think PA is now in play, as are Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. When one looks at all the ways this administration skirts our Constitutional procedure, and it came directly from Eric Cantor. http://fundamentalrefounding.ning.com/forum/topics/the-imperial-presidency-report-detailing-40-abuses-of-authority-b This is a lengthy read, but then this president has been quite busy dismantling our freedoms for nearly four years!
I said 40 states Romney on April 16. Economy. Obamacare. Foreign policy F– up in Libya.(Benghazi was no surprise; you back rebels you don’t know you catch blowback.) Pretty much a competency election. Michael Barone is a pro’s pro whose word can be taken tyo the bank. Jim Geraghty is the next generation’s Michael Barone. Sean Trende too. Deep bench for conservative election heads.
/tips cap
Good to see you around Mr. Surber! Hope you’re doing well.
Vis a vis your prediction: Seeing all the things I’m seeing lately, I’m feeling more and more confident every day that your prediction is going to become a reality. In fact, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if it’s over when poll closure times hit my state of Nebraska. At least I hope it’s a fairly early nite–I’ve got a conference the next day, and I don’t want to be hung over and tired.
Maybe just hung over and smelling of a nice fat, expensive cigar…
And lest anyone think I’m displaying an overweening sense of confidence here: One way or another, I will be hung over Wednesday morning…either from celebration or drowning my sorrows.
Romney Rep. Peter King: Presidential Kill List “Totally Constitutional”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6GQr8m5cOY&feature=player_embedded
I just drove home from church. I live between Akron and Canton in an area that votes slightly blue. Romney signs are sprouting up everywhere. I saw no Obama signs – not a single one. There are plenty of Democrat signs for local elections.
Romney will take Ohio.
Published on Oct 4, 2012 Peter Schiff talks to Sean Wright Tea Mage of WeAreChange Minnesota. Sean Wright’s YouTube Channel:
http://www.youtube.com/dwrocker1 Team Mage’s YouTube Channel: http://www.youtube.com/tbmagis http://www.wearechange.org
FL, NC, VA are safely in the Romney column. Looks like Obama’s firewall states are now Wisconsin, Iowa, State 52 and State 57.
Barone is assuming this will be a fair election.
It will not be. Obama has had 4 years in which to arrange vote fraud.
That is why the Intrade odds are pricing an Obama win at 65%. Intrade is accounting for the vote fraud that the polls are not.
Republicans cannot stop Dem vote fraud. If Republicans are passive enough to let biased moderators moderate the debate, they surely are to passive to prevent lefty vote fraud.
Andrew Breitbart, the one person who could have stopped Obama’s vote fraud, died at a time suspiciously convenient for Obama, no? And there are many ways to make murders look like heart attacks.
Nice prediction. I’m still going to pray, however.
If Romney wins look for Obama to declare martial law until an election can be held that yields the “correct” results.
53-46. I began saying this in June.
Could someone explain to me how Obama is ahead in WI when just a few months ago they re-elected a Republican governor by 7% despite extremely intense union activity and money, and even possibly some fraud? It’s not like there was a turnout problem for the Dems.
Speaking of Michael Barone, does anybody know which network he will be on for Election night coverage? I notice he was not on Fox in 2010.
Remember what happened in Minnesota when Al Franken beat Norm Coleman.
Coleman won the general and mysteriously during the recount Franken picked up votes all over the state and Franken won. There has to be a book there somewhere? How about it Norm Coleman?
The party of gubmint has mad it a priority to elect secretaries of state from the Democrat Party — in order to help them win close elections.
This could be the recount of all recounts — Florida, Ohio, Virginia,…
A recount is a moment of fragility in our already fraying democracy. Multiple parties will attempt to play hell with us: Occupy, Al “Dissent we much” Sharpton, Michael Moor and everybody else who hates conservatives.
I wonder why all the places where you can actually bet real money ALL show Obama as a huge favorite? What must they be thinking? We all know Romney is going to win. Hannity says so. I think I am going to go bet a whole lot of my hard earned money on Mitt so I can win and then be part of the one percent.
Curt, Hannity actually bet that Obama was going to win the race on a personal level which I find strange. Here is an interview with Charles Krauthammer from yesterday in which Krauthammer predicts the narrowest of Romney wins but Hannity remarks that if Krauthammer is correct, Hannity will gladly pay up the bet the two made about who was going to win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/11/03/krauthammer_obama_is_the_luckiest_politician_ive_ever_seen.html