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Rubin Reports

Why the Israeli-Palestinian Agreement Is Absurd

December 31st, 2013 - 10:15 am

It makes sense that the Israel-Palestinian agreement is being made with Obama and Kerry in charge. The deal offers a kind of neo-mandate, with an American presence entrenched in the Jordan Valley for the next 10 years.  That’s no joke.

Let’s look at a different but parallel “pacification” effort and see what happened there. The Afghanistan peace talks with Taliban have gone absolutely dreadfully, and President Karzai is very dissatisfied. The results are–not surprisingly–unsatisfactory.

Let’s consider casualties in that case and a couple of others.

As of the end of 2013, roughly 3,000 Western troops have been killed in Afghanistan. Western forces will retreat with their tails between their legs and will probably abandon the government to horrible massacres and long wars following a Taliban victory.

Since the start of the ongoing civil war in Syria, there have been about 200,000 casualties–mostly civilians. A truly staggering number.

The population of the West Bank is about 3.1 million; if losses will be proportional to those in neighboring nations, the cost of American soldier’s lives would be high.

So, if the Obama/Kerry peace deal does go through, what would the risks be?

  • Dozens of Israeli civilians would be at risk of being killed by cross-border Palestinian-Arab and Islamist terrorist attacks, even if the settlements did not exist.
  • And of course, how fast would U.S. troops respond to such attacks?
  • Might there be an intifada in Jordan, a neighboring country with a Palestinian majority and a very strong Muslim Brotherhood opposition?
  • Remember too that the peace treaty would be incomplete, unable to involve the Hamas-led Gaza Strip. And incomplete peace treaties cannot stand.

In the Gaza Strip, there are more than 1.6 million people under the rule of Hamas. This government will do everything it can to sabotage the peace process. And U.S. help to the PA will be presented as collaboration with the infidels. There is no possibility of their participation in this agreement. That means that even in the best of circumstances, even if the PA is at peace with Israel, Hamas will be in an ongoing war with Israel.

So what great advantage is peace with the West Bank and war with Gaza?

It is predictable that Hamas will attempt to carry out cross-border raids and fire missiles at Israel. What is the U.S. position on that? Is the United States at war with Hamas? CIA director John Brennan, the architect of Obama ideology, publically–but not officially–has said that he wants to make peace with Hamas.

Is the PA going to cooperate with Hamas or at least radical segments of the PA? Remember during the Second Intifada, from 2000 to 2005, Fatah did cooperate with Hamas.

Moreover, if Fatah were to change its policy, it might get support from countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and so on. Turkey, for example–which is now a conduit for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, and al-Qa’ida obtaining arms–knows that most of its policy with the Arabs will be dependent on its degree of support to the Palestinians, including cooperation if there is a Palestinian state. The fact is that Turkey has pinned its hopes on Turkish influence in the Arab world, and to associate with aggressive support of Palestine would be key to its popularity. What if aid from Turkey and these other countries prepares Palestine to fight?

What is the United States, an ally with Israel, going to do if Palestine is created by its own agreement but wages a war of terrorism against Israel?

 By the way, let’s remember that Mahmoud Abbas will probably be replaced in the next few years. It is very hard to predict whom he will be replaced by, but the most popular candidate is a serious hardliner.

Shaykh Abd al-Muhsin al-Mutairi stated, “Oh servants of Allah, how saddening and very painful it is to see many Muslim youths glued to TV screens at cafes or at home, passionately watching entertainment shows, like the Football World Cup, in despicable subjugation to the abominations of the other nations–as if we were not a nation with a brilliant history and a lofty civilization.”

And guess who they blame?

“The Jews were successful in preoccupying the Muslim youth–except those protected by Allah–with the most inane matters, distracting them from important things…”

It is important to understand that millions of people believe this–thoroughly and completely–and can be motivated by these kinds of arguments to the point of killing or supporting terrorism. This is reality; even if it is not unanimous, it is a major motive. If you don’t understand that a majority of people in the Arab-Islamic world believe this, you cannot understand this is the majority view. Certainly Obama and Kerry do not understand this.

So, what are the potential issues that stem from this mindset?

  • Any Muslim killed by a Christian American soldier will be a reason for revenge. This is to engage in a blood feud. Even if a terrorist band has captured a kindergarten and shot children, there will be sympathy in the streets among Arabs and Muslims. If Palestinians are killed by Americans, there will be retaliation.
  •  A terrorist attack at a Kansas airport, Boston, or Fort Hood would be viewed as justification for causalities in Palestine.
  • Remember that the prospects for Arab terrorist movements are much better than Afghan ones, because they have many weapon suppliers–including Libya, Lebanon, al-Qa’ida, Syria, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
  • Also, in comparison with populated Afghan villages, Palestinians are concentrated in villages and small towns. Let us consider the American patrol knocking down doors in Jordan Valley towns.

 In short, an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is not going to be a picnic. Hamas and likely Fatah as well will attempt to kill Americans and commit terrorism. Forget Iranian nuclear weapons; this will be a war of AK-47s and rockets from Gaza. Does Obama Care?

This is definitely a war in which America will get bogged down, or the United States may stay a few years and leave. Just look at the situation in Afghanistan–either this agreement will never be implemented or it will be a disaster.

Comments are closed.

Top Rated Comments   
This is part of Obama's long term strategy to turn the American pubblic against Israel and the jews. First ,he tricked AIPAC into being the front man for hs aborted strikes against Assad thereby feeding the myth of Jewish dual loyalty and that Jews are trying to get Ameircans killed on behalf of Israel. Next is the demonification of Israel as the intransigent party in the Arab/Israeli conflict. His wink and a nod at the BDS movement with Kerry's threat of further isolation of Israel are part of the strategy. The coup de grace will be when American peacekeepers get killed by snipers and IEDs in the West bank and the cry goes out why our our boys dying to protect the Jews? Then American culture will follow Europe's attitude of loving dead Jews and hating live ones.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
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All Comments   (6)
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The only Americans who will ever be in the Jordan Valley will be tourists driving down Route 90 in rental cars. Other than that, it ain't gonna happen.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
What an awful idea. I thought previous administrations have always rejected stationing U.S. troops as peacekeepers in Israel because they would serve as a magnet for terrorists. Enough already. The lives and efforts of our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines are precious. Their lives are not to be squandered or their time wasted. And this plan will never work.
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
May Heaven grant us a real safe and productive Happy New Year !!! This is what is sad with your analysis, Prof Rubin, it is precise and true. Oohh...
46 weeks ago
46 weeks ago Link To Comment
Happy New Year. Good luck – we’ll need it.
Read full article here: http://nyyrc.com/blog/2013/12/happy-new-year-and-a-rant/

Not sure if you noticed, my friends, but 2013 was a pretty eventful year. Yup, year number one of Obama’s second term was full of surprises, or not so much. Nearly all of Obama’s disaster (which is now America’s disaster) was predictable, and yet the GOP establishment seems ever-so-reluctant to call him out.

At this point I’d like to take a minute to personally thank Karl Rove and Mitt Romney for losing that election. Assuming the loss wasn’t 100% due to extensive voter fraud, perpetrated by the “Justice Department” of Eric Holder, you two really did a spectacular job convincing Americans that Obama was just swell compared to the GOP candidate. For example:

• Why mention Benghazi, the perhaps the most scandalous attack on the United States since 9/11? What exactly was the CIA doing in Libya? And where are all the interviews with survivors?

• Rove and RNC, props for nominating the only candidate completely incapable of condemning Obamacare. We see what a success it’s been, after all. Only a few steps behind its older brother Romneycare in Massachusetts. Phew, it’s a good thing that Romney didn’t criticize Obamacare before it was rolled out to the public. What a smooth ride it’s been for that website and the state exchanges, huh?

• Oh damn, before I forget, that antiquated and yellowed Constitution of ours. Romney and Rove, I’m real glad you didn’t bother discussing the basis of federal law this last election. Like Wilson and FDR, Obama has scurrilously complied with Constitutional limits on power, so why bother. The former “Constitutional law professor” this year told us all that our “living and breathing” Constitution guarantees no privacy in personal communication. Gee, I’m so happy we have a “Constitutional law professor” as “President.” What a waste it would have been talking to the electorate about the Constitution. It only makes perfect sense that Rove’s Crossroads GPS PAC barely threw our Constitution a nickel of the $175,000,000 it spent in 2012. (Who cares, though. Romney was supposed to have won Ohio, isn’t that right Karl?)
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
This is part of Obama's long term strategy to turn the American pubblic against Israel and the jews. First ,he tricked AIPAC into being the front man for hs aborted strikes against Assad thereby feeding the myth of Jewish dual loyalty and that Jews are trying to get Ameircans killed on behalf of Israel. Next is the demonification of Israel as the intransigent party in the Arab/Israeli conflict. His wink and a nod at the BDS movement with Kerry's threat of further isolation of Israel are part of the strategy. The coup de grace will be when American peacekeepers get killed by snipers and IEDs in the West bank and the cry goes out why our our boys dying to protect the Jews? Then American culture will follow Europe's attitude of loving dead Jews and hating live ones.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
The results are not important to the DC elite . It is all about the photo op and the self patting in the back. Besides Israel will have to sign this suicide agreement before it finds out what is in it.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
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